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Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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May 16th, 2013 at 8:49:29 AM permalink
The thing is that I can be convinced that an individual is (at least, presently) a lifetime winner of Baccarat. I'm not going to be convinced that much of it has anything to do with streaks or trending, or anything of that nature. With a large enough bankroll, and good money management, however, I could see how someone could win in the short run...and then there are even some winners in what one may term, "Long run," in games in which the house as an advantage. The number of plays that need to be satisfied for something to be considered, "Long run," will vary from individual to individual, and as those increase, there will be less winners.

However, could someone play a year of Baccarat and be ahead? Sure. Two years? Why not?

Also, if it's something like the Martingale, there can be up to a 99%+ chance of system success on each given run of the system. When the system has succeeded, the next round of Baccarat will not be a pox of any kind, or cursed, there is a 99% chance that it will succeed again. Again after that. You get the idea.

Could someone run something like the Marty for a prolonged period of time and be successful? Sure. Someone could get lucky, and most will not.

I'd certainly entertain a discussion about your money management techniques, or system play, gr8player. When you talk about streaks and trending, though, I will admit that is immaterial to me. I also don't like Baccarat, but discussion concerning money management or systems can apply to more than just Baccarat, of course.
Vultures can't be choosers.
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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May 16th, 2013 at 9:53:18 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

I've always enjoyed your post and I believe you give the house a tough game. I warned you early on that you would find no love in this forum if you even hinted that you could beat negative expectancy game (run-on sentence). No disrespect to forum.



Yes, you did alert me to that fact, TTB, and I thank you for that. "Love" I wasn't really expecting and can live without 'round here, but, geez, some simple Bac "conversation".......I really never imagined the absolute dearth of any real Bac players in this gaming forum.
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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May 16th, 2013 at 10:05:54 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

When you talk about streaks and trending, though, I will admit that is immaterial to me. I also don't like Baccarat



Mission146, thank you for taking both the time and the interest to respond. Much appeciated.

That said, as quoted herein, the disdain 'round here for anything "trending" or even "Baccarat" itself is blatantly obvious. Sorta leaves a serious player such as myself on the "outside looking in" at this forum. But that's my concern, Mission146, not yours. Again, thanks for your response.
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
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May 16th, 2013 at 10:15:40 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

That said, as quoted herein, the disdain 'round here for anything "trending" or even "Baccarat" itself is blatantly obvious.


Nobody "disdains" baccarat around here. There are plenty of members who enjoy baccarat, and some of them are "serious" players. What people have criticized is the view that one can consistently win playing a negative expectation game by simply following trends and creating their own "advantage" (and ignoring what basic math says). One is better off flipping a coin than following trends.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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May 16th, 2013 at 11:48:35 AM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

One is better off flipping a coin than following trends.



Simply not a valid assumption, Beethoven9th.

Trends matter. I play this game because trends matter.

Baccarat is a closed-end shoe game. There exists, in its most simplistic terms, a beginning, a middle, and an end to each shoe. And there exists certain "traits" or "characteristics" (yes, my friends, I prefer to call them "trends") of each shoe, and each portion thereof.

They exist. Now, of course, I can almost here the collective mutterings all the way to my side of the computer: "They exist only AFTER they've happened."

True. They exist in hindsight.

But, my friends, IF they exist, even if only in hindsight, are they not then alot more RECOGNIZABLE?

And IF they are alot more RECOGNIZABLE, might a keen player with a keen trending eye learn to recognize them AS THEY UNFOLD?

That, my friends, is the very basis of trending. Learning to spot potential profits unfolding as the distinct portions of the shoe unfold. Learning to play for certain trends as they are playing out just in front of you. And learning to know when they are not (read: "no-bet").

Now, Beethoven9th, if you still wish to compare that to "coin flipping", I'm afraid that you're selling yourself short as a potential trender at this game.

There is an abundance of information that a Baccarat shoe will provide you, if only you can train yourself to listen to it well enough. Most shoes tell me how to play them. Some scream it; others, unfortunately, whisper to "back off". Most...a little bit of both. But, again, an abundance of information.

Then it's but a short ride to develope a money-management plan to "wrap around" each particular preferred trend and your own personal variances.

There's more....patience, discipline, conservative win goals/loss limits, the mental "grind" of it all....but for today, fellas, it's Thursday aft, and I'm AC bound!

I wish you all the very best of it.
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
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May 16th, 2013 at 12:13:32 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Trends matter. I play this game because trends matter.


They must not matter too much since you keep running away from rdw4potus' challenge.

But keep talking. Talk is cheap.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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May 17th, 2013 at 6:29:04 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Mission146, thank you for taking both the time and the interest to respond. Much appeciated.

That said, as quoted herein, the disdain 'round here for anything "trending" or even "Baccarat" itself is blatantly obvious. Sorta leaves a serious player such as myself on the "outside looking in" at this forum. But that's my concern, Mission146, not yours. Again, thanks for your response.



You're welcome.

I'm sure I'd be into all of that if I liked Baccarat, of course. In my opinion, the House Edge on the Player bet isn't so much worse that one should completely avoid it if it is going to make the game much more fun to them. In order to play correctly, one should always bet on Banker, of course. I do hope that this trending doesn't cause anyone to make the Tie Bet, though, the House Edge on that is horrendous.

I also don't have any actual disdain for Baccarat or Baccarat players. The game is just, "Make your bet and watch what happens," despite the higher House Edge (compared to Player/Banker), Roulette would be my game of choice for that because of the potential for a bigger win at a lower House Edge (single number or corners on Roulette v. Tie Bet on Baccarat) and also just because I enjoy Roulette. My favorite games that I've actually played live are Craps and Let It Ride, though, with Blackjack and Roulette tied for a distant third.
Vultures can't be choosers.
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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May 18th, 2013 at 8:27:19 AM permalink
Hello again, Mission146.

The house edge on Baccarat is as low as 1.01% (Banker bet on "Dragon Bonus"-no commission game), so it's pretty much as good as it gets for any casino-banked game. I don't play the tie bet, so that inflated house edge does not affect me in any way. And, as I've enumerated countless times in this forum, I am of the belief that the paltry house edge can be both negated and bested with, shall I say, calculated play on the player's part. Hmmm.....on the "savvy" player's part.

As to your casino games' enjoyment level, Mission146, and your rankings of same, I must say that I harbor no such "enjoyment preferences". I play Baccarat because I've developed a rather adept Baccarat game for myself, and, therefore, it's my best chance for success. If it were enjoyment and/or excitement I were looking for, I'd take in a movie or try walking the boardwalk alone after 2 a.m.

I plan for success, and I play for it. And I will accept nothing less from myself. If I were losing at this game, I'd cease to play it. Simple as that.

I wish you all the very best of it.

Sidenote: Yet another successful Bac trip this past Thurs nite and yesterday. Three sessions, all winners. I cannot remember, as I sit here pecking away at my keyboard, my last losing session at Baccarat. I am on a nice little winning streak, but, lest anyone think otherwise, a "well-deserved" streak. I play a game that affords me certain "outs", all determined by how the current session is unfolding. Easy sessions are, well, easy sessions. Becomes just a matter of "how much" the win will be. But the more difficult sessions, the sessions that the real battle ensues....I'll terminate those sessions at what I deem to be the very best and most opportune time, where I (preferably) made full recoup or (at the very least) got as close to even as possible (read: minimalized losses).

Ain't got much more than that, my friends. I "puts my money up and I takes my chances" just like everyone else does. But I choose to do it at a closed-end shoe game that I'm rather adept at spotting certain trends as they develope, and I choose to vary my money-management around the strike rates (read: variances) of those same trends. Just a rather "savvy" game, as I stated in the opening paragraph of this post. All designed, not by accident, not by superstition, not by luck, all DESIGNED by me to put myself in the very best possible position for long term success.

And, as always, my friends, I wish it for all of you.
ongsoc2
ongsoc2
Joined: Jun 20, 2013
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June 20th, 2013 at 8:26:52 AM permalink
Hi Gr8player,

Please check your private message FYI

Thanks,
Ongsoc
egalite
egalite
Joined: Dec 30, 2011
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June 22nd, 2013 at 7:32:21 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Please pardon my indulgence as I ask the following questions of my fellow members:

Does anyone know of any relatively active, current Baccarat forum that I might be able to visit? Alternatively, might anyone know of any general gaming forum that has, at the very least, a Baccarat section within it?

I'm looking to engage in a bit more "Bac talk" than I'm afforded in this forum. That statement isn't meant to demean anyone in this forum or the forum itself, for I think it is more a matter of a misjudgement on my part as to what I perceived this forum to be about. That said, I feel absolutely compelled to add that this forum provides a wonderful service for its members and/or readership, and I am quite pleased to be a part of it.

I thank you, in advance, for any assistance and/or direction to a forum a bit more amenable to a Baccarat player such as myself.

So this where you surface!! Must admit I don't visit this site often, even mentalcor is here, not surprised he didn't like BF, after all he was kicked from that site early on.

To address your enquiry posted a few months back, yes there is a serious discussion group related to the game of Baccarat, in fact it's mine. Unfortunately due to thus far pulling 900+ units from my last seven consecutive casino visits (playing Punto Banco) and posting the full details including graphics of shoes, I have taken the administrative decision not to accept any new members at this moment in time. While I don't mind sharing details with fellow players, as I always consider the casinos thy enemy, there is nothing in it for me, one has to have a degree of hardness to survive battling casinos and the tactics they employ. Would never claim to be an AP (will leave that to those that play casino games were an actual advantage exists) , rather I just try to do my best at what I do and have been for over a decade.

Now as you some well know, I place no substance in trending, I'll go as far as to say that it belongs up there with Santa Claus and the tooth fairies when it comes to the game of Baccarat. I've no interest in that aspect of the game, yet as with any bet selection approach, they are what they are. Nothing more than a mechanism for the gambler to decide when and when not to bet and which side according to his beliefs / system. If something works for you, then 'fine and dandy', that is all that matters.

Having played this game for a lot long than since 2009 and currently playing five nights per week (it would be 7, but the Chinese don't play Fri & Sat's so the casino won't open the table, certainly not for me, besides dislike playing solo and having to bet every hand). I do have my opinion on GR8's latter success, IMO it is down to a combination of composure, utmost discipline and primarily money management. I observe players over-betting, losing their cool night after night, perhaps the tables need to beat you senseless, before you come to your senses.

For all the maths-heads and skeptics, just so you don't take away the impression I'm engaging in some kind of pissing up the wall contest. Compete details how I play are available on my private board which is not accepting members and will soon relocate. We all have our own way of approaching the game of Baccarat, mine happens to be based on binary tables (yes they also resolve to a 50-50 state), has been for years. Not under-mining the fact that every hand remains a 50-50 proposition, however composure / discipline and solid MM are of more significance than the former. To heed menscor advice, it's best that I keep the rest quiet.

IMO while appreciating everybody has to start somewhere, it can be a tough game on newbies, at the end of the day, whatever works, so long as it works, that is all you really need to be concerned about.

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