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treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
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March 16th, 2013 at 9:19:21 AM permalink
The progression I posted is silly, no doubt. Have been playing around with the "Target method" and of course doing well on sim......but the method calls for huge spreads along the way which I'm not sure I could handle in live play. The method will bust out which is O.K. as long as your not at the table. I'll play around with your progression. Back of Buzzard.:-)
Each day is better than the next
gr8player
gr8player
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March 16th, 2013 at 10:41:47 AM permalink
I'd scrap the "Target Method" as well, if I were you. Those "huge spreads" are much too huge, IMHO. Huge spreads mean that even when you make some money, you're making a minimal amount, but when you lose...KABLAM! Ditch it, my friend.

As you "play around with my progression", bear in mind that with mine or any negative progression, a potentially larger-than-normal loss could arise if you fail to use caution. Like:

I remain at any level if I lost that level by only 3W vs 4L, or, in other words, a minus 1 (-1). Only if I lost that level with a -3 or a -5 or a -7 will I move up to the next level in my progression.

I also will revert back down to the prior level as I recoup that last lost level. So, say I'm that I'm down 9 units, losing 3 at level 1 and 3 at level two, I will go to level 3, but as soon as I am a +2 at level 3, which recouped my -3 from level 2, I will immediately revert back to level 2 to recoup the remaining 3 units from level 1. Like this:

-1 +1 -1 -1 -1 +1 -1 = -3

-2 +2 -2 -2 -2 -2 +2 = -6

-3 +3 +3 +3 = +6...now the loss from level 2 has been recouped, so revert back to level 2 to recoup that -3 from level 1.

Again, TTB, all just a matter of common sense.

And, one last thing, if I find myself living a bit too much (read: too often) in "3-ville" (read: level 3) or higher, I'd seek a new bet selection process. The current strike rate just isn't good enough for this progression and you're playing with fire in that case.

Take care.....
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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March 17th, 2013 at 6:49:38 AM permalink
yes, a nice shallow progression, hoping for variance to shine on you. Living in "1-ville" is the idea. Going to Horseshoe Cincy tomorrow and will use this progression. I'm fairly sure the casino will be changing the Baccarat rules after I'm done with them. Thanks for input gr8player.
Each day is better than the next
gr8player
gr8player
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March 18th, 2013 at 11:58:09 AM permalink
I wish you the very best of it, my friend.....have a safe and prosperous trip.

Just a bit more "food for thought" regarding my theories re: baccarat:

This past Thursday night's and Friday afternoon's bac sessions went rather well, as, collectively, I hit at a 57% strike rate for the two sessions. Now, for me, 57% is attainable, but still well above my standard averages that fall between 48 and 53 percentiles. In other words, I was experiencing an "upward variance" for those two sessions. Fine. All well and good. Except:

I was expectant of a variance correction on the downside. And, I must say, yesterday's session sure fiilled that bill:

First shoe, my results:

+1 -1 +1 +1 +1 -1 +1 = +3 (I circle the "plusses", that money never gets goes back into play.)

+1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 = -5 (Ok, on to "2-ville" for recoup.)

-2 -2 -2 -2 +2 +2 -2 = -6 Minus total now stands at -11. (Whoa, look at that, if you will....NINE consecutive losses. 9! And, I must add here: I "no-bet" after any 3 consecutive losses to await a "virtual" win, then I'll resume real betting, so, just to give you a better idea of just how terribly I was faring during this losing jag, I was hitting a "no-bet" in "virtual mode, but, when I "real" bet, I lost the bet. I must tell you, this will happen only VERY, VERY RARELY. But happen it did.)

Thank Goodness that I was prepared for it. Doesn't mean I liked it. I hated it. But it didn't catch me by surprise, leaving me as a "deer in the headlights", and just a loss or two away from "tilting" and/or "over-betting". Instead, I remained fine. And then; on to "3-ville"....I don't like living in "3-ville"; but, as you'll soon see, I was only "barely there":

+3 +3 +3 Hmmm, at this point I paused for a moment, and pondered the following:

I'm at +9 in "3-ville". 9 out of my 11 lost units are now recovered. Those last three wins, effectively, just eradicated that 9'er losing jag.

So I made the decision to revert back to base, or "1-ville". And, as it happens, quite a good choice, too, for I had lost my next bet. Or....wait...was it such a good choice?....I won my next three bets. But let me sum it up like this: If I'm going to "err"...and, let's face it, we all err at some time or another...I much prefer to "err on the side of caution". Why?:

Because, after playing this game all these years, I can tell you, unequivocally, that wins don't matter. I mean...the winning amounts don't matter. Only the losing amounts count. You can't win 5 units one session, 5 units the next, and 5 units the next, but then proceed to lose 25 units at the next session. That math, my friends, will never, ever add up favorably for anyone but "the house". It's not what you win, it's what you don't lose.

One thousand dollars. My session win goal for years. You know what I won yesterday afternoon?: Just under 200 dollars after comm and tip. Yet it was one of my sweetest wins, because I fought off my impending variance correction. I beat the rare 9'er. By how much? Who cares how much? I avoided a loss in this tougher-than-usual session.

I win the bulk of my sessions, because I am constantly seeking the exit. I'm not there to gamble. I've been gambling for years, and I'm sick of it. And, lest anyone read this incorrectly, I didn't grow sick of it because I was winning too much money. No, I had a very selective memory. I remembered my winners but disregarded my losers. Eventually, however, real truth comes through your wallet/bank account.

Now I've learned to "walk a win". Any win. The amount does not matter. And, thusly, I've learned how to win. Because I've learned how to control that which I can control. Where to bet, when to bet, and how much to bet....oh, and how to "walk a win". And, know this: those wins, regardless the size, will all add up rather nicely over the long term.

I wish it for all of you.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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March 21st, 2013 at 9:18:12 AM permalink
Thanks for the post gr8player. Unfortunately, I used the "Target Method" in Cincy. Did well for awhile but lost two straight "critical bets" in the progression, which did me in. 14 straight player decisions was my undoing. I've now lost 9 out the last 10 casino trips. JFC!
Each day is better than the next
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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March 21st, 2013 at 10:18:10 AM permalink
o.k.......need ideas/math help. In Cincy the Baccarat game offers 1-10,000 spread. Minimum bet 10, max bet 100,000. It seem to me that a 10 off the top bettor with 100,000 bankroll could provide a tough game against house. If possible please refrain from the house advantage angle as we all know it's inherent in game. Using progressions against 1-10,000 spread back by a large bankroll is leverage. Yes? I get the idea that most gamblers take a BB gun to an elephant hunt.
Each day is better than the next
gr8player
gr8player
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March 23rd, 2013 at 8:15:45 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

I've now lost 9 out the last 10 casino trips.



Ouch....sorry to hear it, TTB. It's rather unfortunate, as you appear to me as both intelligent and reasonable. And, my friend, you'll certainly need both in order to even begin to have any realistic opportunity to get the better of this (or any) game of chance.

Time to take a step back, TTB. Re-evaluate your position. See if there might be a "recurring theme" to those losses. And then see if there might be something within your control that you could have done to avoid them.

You may very well find no answers. Alternatively, you may find some glaring, common mistakes that you're making.

Find your strength, and play "to it". (Maybe it's horse betting and not casino gaming.)

You simply cannot afford to continue on your current path, because that's working only in favor of the casino.

Please take no offense regarding my frankness, as I deem myself rather qualified to comment on your plight because I've "been there, and done that". I adjusted my approach to this game upon realizing that it was getting the better of me. And the most revealing part of it all was the revelation that I, myself, was my own worst enemy at the table all too often. I decided that I'd either adjust my approach or I'd give up the game....any continuance of the same mistakes, all too often, was not an option for me. I was close, but close is good enough only in the game of horse-shoes. Not in casino gaming.

The biggest challenge? IMHO, it's to begin to think "long-term". Not "hanging" on every bet. Learning to "let it go" and "relax".

Think about it....do you check the market price of your home on a daily basis? Of course you don't...and your home is one of your greatest assets, right?

So why should you place so much significance on each and every "swing" of your bac bankroll? Realize that there will be inevitable "variance swings", but, in the long term, your bac bankroll should only increase, albeit slowly...but surely.

Yet again, I wish you all the very best of it.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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March 23rd, 2013 at 9:30:07 AM permalink
Appreciate the input gr8player. Most trips I've been up early on, but not enough to warrant walking away. Nearest casino is an hour an fifteen mins away so gas, wear and tear vehicle, time, etc. put me in the hole before I walk into casino. So, I hang around and get ground down while attempting to make the trip worthwhile. Maybe increasing the off the top bet and decreasing time in casino and hoping for early positive variance. "Hoping", never ends well.
Each day is better than the next
gr8player
gr8player
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March 23rd, 2013 at 10:12:43 AM permalink
I'm "hearing ya'', TTB. Similar situations. I, too, live nowhere near any casino, so any trip requires a few hours each way. And, as you're apparently realizing now, that can be a rather huge, yet understated, disadvantage in so many ways. "Make the trip worthwhile"....oh, my Goodness, what that one solitary statement, alone, had probably cost me over the years...my Goodness.

Gotta get that outta your head.

Your Bac game, your bet placements, your bet sizes, your Bac bankroll.....they all know nothing of the distance 'tween your house and the casino or what it took out of you to get there. Get that all out of your mind, now.

Believe me, TTB, I, yet again, can speak through personal experience on this subject.

"Increasing the off the top bet" and/or "decreasing time in casino" and/or "hoping for early positive variance".....not a one that'll turn things positively for you, my friend. In fact, they'll sooner see you to an extension of those recent string of losses, I'm afraid.

Again, it's a matter of adapting to your current circumstances and making the very necessary changes in order to put yourself in the very best possible position to succeed.

I wish it for all of you.
gr8player
gr8player
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March 23rd, 2013 at 11:52:04 AM permalink
So much....so very much....of this game is "mental". Adopting the correct mentality, the correct approach, to this game is literally paramount to anyone's chances at long-term success.

Sure.....I can hear the moaning and groaning all the way to my side of the computer board. "What does one's mentality have to do with getting the better of any negative expectancy game?"

Look....the negative expectancy is there, and cannot be changed. It's inherent to the game, the casino's charge for doing business. It cannot be altered. So, one needs either to deal with it or succumb to it. Their choice.

But, that said, make no mistake of it, IF one were to attempt to take on that daunted edge, and thusly seek a way to grind out profitablility at this game, it'll all begin and end with the correct mindset. The correct mentality. The adaption of a winning approach.

Will that alone be enough to offset their 1.2% vig? Nope.

But it's the "springboard" that'll get one to wrap their entire Bac game (bet selection process; money-management; conservative, attainable goals) around.

Only in totality can any player hope to acheive an edge over any casino-banked game. No one thing, no one method will suffice. Only in totality.

I wish it for all of you.

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