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MathExtremist
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October 16th, 2013 at 4:38:35 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

The math is on the casino's side, so, yes, in that regard I, as everyone else, "face the worst of it".
But, even with that as a given, those times when my variance stats are barking, that's when "I'm getting the better of it".


Someday you'll recognize that's a contradiction.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Beethoven9th
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October 16th, 2013 at 7:45:51 PM permalink
The Ginsu knife...demonstrated by MathExtremist & thecesspit!
It can slice & dice any betting system, no matter how silly!
And it can be yours NOW at the affordable low price of $19.95!
Here's how to order...call 1-gr800-BAC-ARAT!
Fighting BS one post at a time!
soxfan
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October 16th, 2013 at 8:10:16 PM permalink
It's good to see the gr88888888888888one goin to war with the ap wiseguys on here, I must say. I'm kinda surprised that the john-O hasn't chimed in, as he is also well ahead at baccarat without any definable "edge", but oh well. I'm just gonna sit back with a Guinness and some cashews and enjoy the show, baby, hey hey!
" Life is a well of joy; but where the rabble drinks too, all wells are poisoned!" Nietzsche
Beethoven9th
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October 16th, 2013 at 8:12:30 PM permalink
Oh boy, another new member!
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egalite
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October 16th, 2013 at 11:37:12 PM permalink
I get on GR8's case because we have history. However it is fair to state 'some of' what he writes is correct, generally when it comes to the game of Baccarat even though every bet carries a negative expectation, and quite rightly you maths heads will shout two negatives can't overcome the house. The edge is generally the player, if you want to label it an edge, I prefer to call it somebody who is controlled & methodical in what they do.

The consensus for the masses, is that if you can not predict which side is going to win, then you have no edge, or can't win in the long term, this is a load of nonsense. I can't predict jack-sh1t, have no idea which side is going to win, I claim no edge in terms of bet selection, because everything resolves (this includes no-bets and flipping a coin) to 50-50 state, there is no escape from that. I do know however, that I play again sequential odds of 256-1 to lose 7 bets in a row, incidentally this happened last night, not that that little issue stopped me from having my most successful night since my travels, it just meant the session took longer than expected. This is something the purists will never understand, rather put it down to "I'm on the right side of a bell curve", well maybe I am, who knows? Only the long term will tell.

I no longer feel the need or have the time to broadcast my table exploits on the net, I much prefer to quietly go about my business at the tables. However "quietly" is now impossible, having won on my last 13 trips and turning "1 bag" (UK readers will be familiar with the term) into "20 bags" in a month of grinding play. Has it been smooth sailing all the way, hell no, it's been hurricane~ish at times, but hey that's par of the course of trying to reek profit from a game that offers no edge in terms of bet selection.

For those that know me, I'm playing professionally (no other means of income), on old stomping ground playing 8 deck games (which I find so radically different from 6 deck shoes), the heat is slowly beginning to simmer which comes as no surprise, if GR8 needs or seeks to have his limelight, he is welcome to it, some of us, just want to go about our business privately.

Good luck everybody, as for the naysayers, who really cares.
mickeycrimm
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October 17th, 2013 at 12:52:15 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

The math is on the casino's side, so, yes, in that regard I, as everyone else, "face the worst of it". But, even with that as a given, those times when my variance stats are barking, that's when "I'm getting the better of it".



But, teacher, how do know when I'm going to git my ass whooped in an Indian fight?
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
petroglyph
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October 17th, 2013 at 1:32:21 AM permalink
[edit post]
mickeycrimm
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October 17th, 2013 at 2:20:07 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

The theories, the approaches, the patience and discipline and bankroll conservation and conservative and realistic win/loss goals.....all invaluable insights........c'mon, man, does anyone around here even play in a live casino?...with real money?.....



Have you tried Evangelism? You could probably get some of those ding a lings to go along with you.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
gr8player
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October 17th, 2013 at 6:58:36 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

then why talk about it at all with people here? You have, Nothing .....Nothing to hide except the fact thst its not happening at all. You know It, I know it we all know it.



Yet you're dying to met up with me in AC to watch me play some Baccarat....interesting, very interesting.

Very strange behavior, AxelWolf, especially coming from, as mickeycrimm so aptly put it, a member of "a sharp gambling bunch" such as yourself.
Beethoven9th
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October 17th, 2013 at 7:02:34 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Yet you're dying to met up with me in AC to watch me play some Baccarat....interesting, very interesting.


Of course he is, teacher. My goodness, who wouldn't jump at the chance to meet the world's foremost expert in everything baccarat!!!
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gr8player
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October 17th, 2013 at 7:10:23 AM permalink
Quote: SlackJawYokel

Gr8,

I have not followed all the pages but I just have a simple question for you, sorry if you answered already.

How is your trending not gambler's fallacy? It seems to me from what your saying that you believe past results indicate future performance.



Hello, SlackJawYokel. I trust all is well with you. Thank you for your inquiry.

My Baccarat plays are, in fact, predicated upon prior results. Prior results of each particular shoe (or portion thereof), prior results of each of my preferred trends, and prior results of my variance performances.

So, yeah...prior results are important in my sort of Bac play.

The "gambler's fallacy" is, IMHO, far removed from what I attempt to do at the Bac tables. I believe that the "fallacy" comes into play when a player stubbornly and relentlessly "chases" for a different result than the current results are showing, all in the name of something being "due" to occur.

I, on the other hand, do not chase for results. I follow the propensities (read: trends) of the current shoe (or portion thereof) and take advantage of those propensities. Further, I calculate probabilities, based both on the Laws Of Series and my personal variance stats. And, when I deem it correct to do so, based upon those stats, I will bet for certain, shall I say, common "happenstances" to occur in the immediate (Read: my time at the shoe/table) future.

Far removed from any common "gambler's fallacy"....

Stay well, my friend. And thanks again for your interest.
gr8player
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October 17th, 2013 at 7:14:38 AM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Oh boy, another new member!

\

Nothing "new" about him, he knows his way 'round a Bac table.

You'd be mistaken to sell "Soxster" short, Beethoven9th. This man is an adept player and, I'm quite certain, "one tough out" for any casino.
Beethoven9th
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October 17th, 2013 at 7:17:40 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Nothing "new" about him, he knows his way 'round a Bac table.

No way! Is he as good as you???


Quote: gr8player

I will bet for certain, shall I say, common "happenstances" to occur...

Teacher, I've noticed that you like to use that word a lot: 'Happenstances'. Come to think of it...I like it now, too!

I also noticed that you use 'esteemed' and 'poignant' a lot. I really need to start incorporating those brilliant words into my vocabulary as well because I want to be just like the world's foremost expert in everything baccarat!!
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gr8player
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October 17th, 2013 at 7:27:23 AM permalink
Quote: soxfan

It's good to see the gr88888888888888one goin to war with the ap wiseguys on here, I must say. I'm kinda surprised that the john-O hasn't chimed in, as he is also well ahead at baccarat without any definable "edge", but oh well. I'm just gonna sit back with a Guinness and some cashews and enjoy the show, baby, hey hey!



Hey, Soxster, what's up, man?

When are you gonna wean yourself off them "Guinness and cashews", my friend.

Yeah, this site is rather "math-biased". But, I'm fine with that, really. And I totally understand where they're coming from. Frankly, if I were on their side of the computer, I'd probably be looking at a person such as myself with some hesitation, as well. I get it.

What they really don't realize, however, is this: Their math is NOT the only math. I, too, can add and subtract and multiply and divide. They might...take it easy, I said "might"...try to see someone else's view toward this game as opposed to simply relegate all results to, again, their math.

That said, we're all paid off on our winning bets at less than the true odds.

Sorta makes our positions a bit difficult for them to fathom, doesn't it?

So, I'm understanding of their positions.

I just wish they might find some "wiggle room" for mine....because, contrary to popular opinion 'round here....we are NOT all doomed at the Bac tables.
Beethoven9th
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October 17th, 2013 at 7:29:54 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

What they really don't realize, however, is this: Their math is NOT the only math.

LOL!!!!
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gr8player
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October 17th, 2013 at 7:35:28 AM permalink
Quote: egalite

The edge is generally the player, if you want to label it an edge, I prefer to call it somebody who is controlled & methodical in what they do.
Good luck everybody, as for the naysayers, who really cares.



Yeah, we certainly do have history, no doubt of it.

But there's also a lot of "commonality".

While no two methods are identical, there's no denying certain approaches as both necessary and advantageous for any serious Bac player.

I'm glad to hear that you're doing well.

And, yeah...you've come to the right place if it's "naysayers" that you're after...that said, gotta like the "who really cares" 'tude.
gr8player
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October 17th, 2013 at 7:38:42 AM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

LOL!!!!



Haven't you anything better to do with your time? Take a walk.....real men and real players are posting here.
Beethoven9th
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October 17th, 2013 at 7:48:06 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

real men and real players are posting here.


Where, teacher?? Where?
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MathExtremist
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October 17th, 2013 at 7:56:30 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

My Baccarat plays are, in fact, predicated upon prior results. Prior results of each particular shoe (or portion thereof), prior results of each of my preferred trends, and prior results of my variance performances.

So, yeah...prior results are important in my sort of Bac play.

The "gambler's fallacy" is, IMHO, far removed from what I attempt to do at the Bac tables.


Actually, you've just perfectly described the Gambler's Fallacy. You believe in the maturity of chances: that the odds change significantly over time based on what you have recently observed. That's false, and why it's called a fallacy. It doesn't matter if you're flipping coins, throwing dice, or dealing baccarat hands out of an 8-deck shoe. The prior results have no predictive value in any game where the trials are independent. Coins and dice are truly independent, and baccarat is sufficiently so (at least concerning the hand outcomes) such that prior results of trends are utterly meaningless. By relying on "prior results of your variance performances", you are -- apparently unwittingly -- committing the very fallacy you claim to avoid.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
gr8player
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October 17th, 2013 at 8:03:12 AM permalink
Hello again, MathExtremist.

Much as we see the "math" differently, the same, obviously, appears the case regarding the "gambler's fallacy".

I suppose it's a matter of what one chooses to put their belief in. Based, of course, upon their personal views of the math and/or the fallacy.
Beethoven9th
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October 17th, 2013 at 8:53:46 AM permalink
MathExtremist = 250
gr8player = (250,000)*

You need to stage a comeback, teacher!!
(And no, the 250,000 was NOT a reference to the $250,000 that you lost at baccarat!)

*That means -250,000 (negative 250K) for all you h8ters out there!
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MathExtremist
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October 17th, 2013 at 9:05:35 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Hello again, MathExtremist.

Much as we see the "math" differently, the same, obviously, appears the case regarding the "gambler's fallacy".

I suppose it's a matter of what one chooses to put their belief in. Based, of course, upon their personal views of the math and/or the fallacy.


That's like suggesting one plus one might equal three if you believe strongly enough. No matter how strongly you believe, it's still not true. Neither is your strongly-held belief that the Banker bet becomes due after observing a certain sequence of past hands.

Of course, you're free to play baccarat as if it does, just as you're free to live your life believing one plus one equals three.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
gr8player
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October 17th, 2013 at 9:06:04 AM permalink
...."for all the h8ters out there!"

What is it that you're trying to accomplish here, Beethoven9th? What is your true purpose in posting nothing but trash in my threads?

Geez...I don't think I could ever bring myself to dislike someone that much where I'd tag their every post.

What, seriously, is your real problem with me? Have I harmed you in any way?

And now, I'm told, that you've resorted to the "Suspension" thread to denigrate me there, as well. What's up with that? I gotta check that out...
Beethoven9th
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October 17th, 2013 at 9:10:45 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

And now, I'm told, that you've resorted to the "Suspension" thread...


"Who" told you, teacher?
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rob45
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October 17th, 2013 at 9:11:31 AM permalink
As we're all surely developing headaches by now, let's break the monotony of attempting to make sense out of the nonsensical.

I have controlled my emotion as long as possible, yet now feel compelled to have it come out into the open, as I feel it can be contained no longer.

I must finally admit that I am somewhat envious of Beethoven.
As the student of his teacher, he is privy to acquiring the knowledge which I may only dream of acquiring.

I, too, wish to be taught how to interpret gibberish.
I, too, wish to possess the ability to learn a new type of "math". You know, that type of math that overcomes the other type of math.
I, too, wish to learn how to defeat a negative expectation game. Not for any need of profit, but "because I can".
I, too, wish to learn the art of redefining concrete terms as needed to suit my views.

And finally, I, too, wish to learn how to become a professional guesser.

Beethoven, you must have the best teacher in the world, and for that I envy you.
Alas, should you ever wish to pursue a field of study outside of your teacher's expertise, I could never hope to be the next student in line; I'm too lazy for that much homework.


And now, since recess is over, it's back to the classroom. For this afternoon's class session, we will require the Nonsense-English dictionary.
Beethoven9th
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October 17th, 2013 at 9:23:26 AM permalink
^^^^^^^^^^^
+1


Quote: rob45

And finally, I, too, wish to learn how to become a professional guesser.


Oh, I love that one! Time for a new sig...lol!
Fighting BS one post at a time!
gr8player
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October 17th, 2013 at 9:28:31 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Of course, you're free to play baccarat as if it does, just as you're free to live your life believing one plus one equals three.



Thank you for the permission, MathExtremist.
gr8player
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October 17th, 2013 at 9:42:36 AM permalink
Quote: rob45

As we're all surely developing headaches by now, let's break the monotony of attempting to make sense out of the nonsensical.

I have controlled my emotion as long as possible, yet now feel compelled to have it come out into the open, as I feel it can be contained no longer.

I must finally admit that I am somewhat envious of Beethoven.
As the student of his teacher, he is privy to acquiring the knowledge which I may only dream of acquiring.

I, too, wish to be taught how to interpret gibberish.
I, too, wish to possess the ability to learn a new type of "math". You know, that type of math that overcomes the other type of math.
I, too, wish to learn how to defeat a negative expectation game. Not for any need of profit, but "because I can".
I, too, wish to learn the art of redefining concrete terms as needed to suit my views.

And finally, I, too, wish to learn how to become a professional guesser.

Beethoven, you must have the best teacher in the world, and for that I envy you.
Alas, should you ever wish to pursue a field of study outside of your teacher's expertise, I could never hope to be the next student in line; I'm too lazy for that much homework.


And now, since recess is over, it's back to the classroom. For this afternoon's class session, we will require the Nonsense-English dictionary.



Hello, rob45. Very clever post, indeed. Thank you for your interest.

I'm afraid that I cannot teach you to be a, as you put it, "professional guesser".

You see, my friend, I don't "guess". Ever. I have certain plays that I follow exclusively, and I bet for them when they are prominent within this particular shoe or portion thereof.

Nice try, though.

Stay well, my friend.
AxelWolf
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October 17th, 2013 at 9:47:00 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Yet you're dying to met up with me in AC to watch me play some Baccarat....interesting, very interesting.

Very strange behavior, AxelWolf, especially coming from, as mickeycrimm so aptly put it, a member of "a sharp gambling bunch" such as yourself.

I only want to meet up with you because, you make controversial claims to the fact that you have a winning BAS system for yourself. For all we know you have never touched a casino chip in your life. I guess I just don't like debating if BAC can be beaten, or even talking about BAC with someone who is a ghost. Whats the point of going round and round about something you may not even be doing? People make many, exaggerated and untrue claims around here but, wont back up anything with either math or show.

I don't care if its ME you meet with, or a seasoned member of the forum you meet up with. I just happened to be near where you claim to play. Make fun with your quoted comment "a sharp gambling bunch" At least I can prove anything I lay claim to and I'm willing to do so if needed. I believe Mickey C. can as well. He has already backed up a few claims with substantial evidence.

Once Varm Posted some pictures of himself and offered to meet up with people, he gained SOME instant credibility and some props. Of course it was short lived, because his story had more holes in it then a pasta strainer. Unlike you, Varm actually was talking about his system and other things. At least Varm was entertaining (admittedly, we got to tease the retarded kid) You just say a whole lot about nothing, repeating pretty much the same thing over and over. things like: My system works for me, my system uses bankroll management, self discipline and proper bet selection. That's all you really keep saying.

I'm not trying to learn or steal your system, I would be willing to put up 5K in cash to the Wizard or in an escrow account, If I'm caught playing Baccarat while trying to use your system without your consent, you get the money.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
mickeycrimm
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October 17th, 2013 at 10:45:02 AM permalink
Quote: rob45

As we're all surely developing headaches by now, let's break the monotony of attempting to make sense out of the nonsensical.

I have controlled my emotion as long as possible, yet now feel compelled to have it come out into the open, as I feel it can be contained no longer.

I must finally admit that I am somewhat envious of Beethoven.
As the student of his teacher, he is privy to acquiring the knowledge which I may only dream of acquiring.

I, too, wish to be taught how to interpret gibberish.
I, too, wish to possess the ability to learn a new type of "math". You know, that type of math that overcomes the other type of math.
I, too, wish to learn how to defeat a negative expectation game. Not for any need of profit, but "because I can".
I, too, wish to learn the art of redefining concrete terms as needed to suit my views.

And finally, I, too, wish to learn how to become a professional guesser.

Beethoven, you must have the best teacher in the world, and for that I envy you.
Alas, should you ever wish to pursue a field of study outside of your teacher's expertise, I could never hope to be the next student in line; I'm too lazy for that much homework.


And now, since recess is over, it's back to the classroom. For this afternoon's class session, we will require the Nonsense-English dictionary.



ROTFLMAO!!!
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
mickeycrimm
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October 17th, 2013 at 11:22:56 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

MathExtremist: Of course, you're free to play baccarat as if it does, just as you're free to live your life believing one plus one equals three.


gr8player: Thank you for the permission, MathExtremist.



But gr8player, as the world's foremost professional guesser, don't you think MathExtremist's statement is not an order or directive, but rather just a statement. I thought you were the world's best professional guesser, and here you are letting us down. So it ain't so, gr8player.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
Beethoven9th
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October 17th, 2013 at 12:38:08 PM permalink
mickeycrimm, AxelWolf = Professional Gamblers
gr8player = Professional Guesser
gr8beethoven = Professional BS'er =)
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mickeycrimm
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October 17th, 2013 at 8:36:41 PM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

mickeycrimm, AxelWolf = Professional Gamblers
gr8player = Professional Guesser
gr8beethoven = Professional BS'er =)




The crowd thinks I'm a dandy. I'm Bandy the Rodeo Clown.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
gr8player
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October 19th, 2013 at 7:27:35 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Stay tuned...I'll be there again tomorrow night, and I'm adjusting my bet size upwards a bit due to last Friday's variance dip and resulting loss.



Yes.

Thursday night session 9:30 P.M. buy-in:

As a result of my variance downturn, and subsequent loss, at last Friday's session, I adjusted my bets upward by 50% for this session. It's a bitch to have to wait virtually an entire week for recoup, but that's the position I face with my limited casino accessibility, so it is what it is.

Well, one shoe is all it took. I won 5 units (after comm and tips). And those 5 units, inflated, are actually 7 1/2 of my regular-sized units. Now, my normal wi n goal is 6 - 8 units, so I figured I'd accept the 7 1/2. Great.

Well, as it happened, I would've won another couple of units had I continued playing. It was a decent "dom"...like this: PP B PP B PP...and it continued for another 3 decisions after I had quit, so, even accounting for the final loss at decision #4, I'd have netted two more units. And comm-free units, as they were Player wins. BUUUTTT:

1.) I was playing an "over-sized" unit amount, and so I wanted to get in and out ASAP.

2.) The downside. Think about it. I'd already hit my win goal. What would have happened if that mini-dom ended a few hands earlier, and I'd have lost my last bet? Now I'd be looking for that final unit yet again. Would I have gotten it? Probably. But "probably" just don't cut it for a player such as myself. I much prefer to err on the side of caution, especially while playing inflated units.

It's called "learning to accept a win". Until you do, you'll never, ever be able to repeat it on a consistent basis.

I wish you all the very best of it.
gr8player
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October 19th, 2013 at 7:32:54 AM permalink
Oh, and another thing:

What's going on at Bally's? Looks like they're remodeling their casino floor and the place is in shambles, so I couldn't get out of there quickly enough on Friday morning.
Beethoven9th
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October 19th, 2013 at 7:38:56 AM permalink
Hi, teacher! I'm ready for class!!!
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gr8player
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October 19th, 2013 at 8:58:11 AM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Hi, teacher! I'm ready for class!!!



Fair enough, Beethoven9th, read on:

How to win at Baccarat

The first thing you need is the correct mind-set. Know, starting out, that "you're up against it". You're on the short end of the stick. You're gonna lose. Know that, right from the beginning. Why? The house edge, that pays you at less than true odds on every winning bet. So, that being a given, how, exactly, can we win at Baccarat?:

Start with a consistent bet selection. What? Bet selection? How am I supposed to pick between Banker or Player? How do I come up with any bet selection process? Simple:

Domination.

Look, every EC (read: even chance) game, and Bac especially, will have dominations, defined as one side getting the better of the other, and winning the majority of the current decisions. Play for that. And ONLY for that.

Got no patience to await a dom? Don't step foot near a Bac table.
Got no discipline to just play for one bet selection process? Don't step foot near a Bac table.

Doms happen. The most common, the most recognizable, is BBBBB or PPPPP, or, namely, a streak of wins. But that is only the beginning of looking for doms. It's also PP B PPP B P...where the "weak" side is only singling (or, at most, doubling) and the "strong" or "dom" side is getting multiple wins.

Play for that strong side to continue its dominance. OK. You did that, but now it's ended. No dom. OK, fine. You lost your last bet (or two, at most). Now what do you do? NOTHING.

Sit there, and await another one. But there is no real doms, just some random mish-mosh of decisions? Sit there. It's called "no-bet", and it's one of the strongest parts of my arsenal. I've the patience of a saint. (That's when I was approached by the floor-person that was about to retire...he made mention to me that I was the most patient player he'd seen.) I'll wait to win. Think about it. What's my alternative? LOSING?! Losing is not an option for me. So, for me, it's wait or it's lose. My choice. Which way do you think I'm leaning?

OK. Now we get to a dom. How do we bet?:

With both hands. Like a hunter who's just spotted his prey, pounce on it. Use an up-as-you-win progression. I prefer parlays, where you let the winnings (or 1/2 such) from the prior win ride onto the next bet. Doms are built for that, when played correctly.

Hmmm...he just said "when played correctly"?:

Yes. Meaning, you've got a dom like: PPP B PP B PPP...don't bet for the 4th Player to hit, even in the face of the dom, because it hasn't hit the 4-hole as yet. In other words, even in dom mode, don't chase for "invisible runs". Hold that bet off, especially a parlayed bet. You'll get your chance. Await it. Sorta like the old joke: Two bulls on top of a hill, spot some cows down in the pasture, and the son bull remarks to the father bull..."Let's run down there and screw a couple of those cows"...to which father bull replies..."No, let's WALK down and screw all of them". Patience, my friends. Slow your game down, and let it come to you, rather than chase for it.

Lastly, the most important part:

Variance.

You lost. Can't seem to catch a cold, let alone a dom anywhere. That's OK, and it will happen. 8 units win goal, 8 units loss limit. There's your structure. So, you lost your 8 units, pack it up, take your ball and go home.

When you next buy in to play, increase that bet size by 50%. You were betting $20, now you bet $30. Same 8 unit win goal. But, now you'll either get to it easier, as I did Thursday night (posted above), or you'll win even more money. Now, you've recouped and profited, even in the face of your last loss.

Variance. You can't lose on the same consistent play forever. Can't happen. If you're familiar with your variance stats (and you should be...but that's only for "Advanced Baccarat" class, Beethoven9th, sorry), you'll know the why, when, and how of bet-size adjusting to best serve your goals and purposes.

That's why I've got my game to near infallibility. Because I play for the same trends in a consistent manner, and I adjust my bet sizes to suit my current variance stats. Because, my friends, in the end, when all is said and done, in any negative expectancy game, it's all about recoup and it's all about winning more when you win than you lose when you lose. Never forget that. You will lose. Everyone loses sometimes. But we learn to add the marbles over the long term, not bet-by-bet or shoe-by-shoe or even session-by-session. Long term money is real money.

That, my friends, is How to win at Baccarat.

I wish it for all of you.
Beethoven9th
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October 19th, 2013 at 10:35:39 AM permalink
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Teacher, that was brilliant!!

BUT...

...is this the system that you used when you lost $250,000 at baccarat????



Quote: gr8player

That's why I've got my game to near infallibility.

LOL!!!

Then I think you are definitely ready to accept the challenge now, teacher!
Fighting BS one post at a time!
djatc
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October 20th, 2013 at 4:56:52 AM permalink
Ok now show your work with mathematical equations as to why this works.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
AxelWolf
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October 20th, 2013 at 5:14:11 AM permalink
Quote: djatc

Ok now show your work with mathematical equations as to why this works.

He already stated he can't. Thats not needed, because it doesn't take into account bet selection, trends, and knowing when to quit.

In reality, I'm fairly certain he dose not even play baccarat. If he dose it's such small limits he would be embarrassed to have anyone find out.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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October 20th, 2013 at 5:14:27 AM permalink
Quote: djatc

Ok now show your work with mathematical equations as to why this works.

He already stated he can't. Thats not needed, because it doesn't take into account bet selection, trends, and knowing when to quit.

In reality, I'm fairly certain he dose not even play baccarat. If he dose it's such small limits he would be embarrassed to have anyone find out.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Beethoven9th
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October 20th, 2013 at 10:48:43 AM permalink
Quote: djatc

Ok now show your work with mathematical equations as to why this works.

People on various forums have been asking him to do so for SEVEN years now, but as soon as he hears the question, he does his best Usain Bolt impersonation.


Quote: AxelWolf

In reality, I'm fairly certain he dose not even play baccarat.

+1

I agree. He's good at talking...and talking...and talking...while saying absolutely NOTHING. He's like the fat guy sitting on the couch every Sunday who thinks he's a better QB than Peyton Manning.
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egalite
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October 20th, 2013 at 3:51:24 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Well, as it happened, I would've won another couple of units had I continued playing. It was a decent "dom"...like this: PP B PP B PP...and it continued for another 3 decisions after I had quit, so, even accounting for the final loss at decision #4, I'd have netted two more units. And comm-free units, as they were Player wins. BUUUTTT:

1.) I was playing an "over-sized" unit amount, and so I wanted to get in and out ASAP.

Well in that case you weren't as sharp as you think you are. Okay you increased your bet size to compensate for the prior weekend's loss and recouped. Once achieved you could have stepped back down and not run like a rabbit caught in headlights.

I've butted heads with you for many years, I understand your mental approach to the game, however I disagree with your bet methodology, but hey everything resolves to the same odds as any single bet, so nobody is right nor wrong. Yet struggle to understand why you seek this attention and certainly there is no edge when it comes to bet selection (proof prior weeks session). Why not simply do your talking at the tables, I feel you need this, you crave for it, you need to examine why.

You stated your goal target a few threads earlier, you are insignificant small fry (not worthy labelling oneself "great-player"), the Oz dollar is on par with the green-back, my daily session goal target is 1k minimum, although it's been double that recently. Was playing $500 units over the weekend, placed a few 2500 bets without flinching (I had got into trouble and had to grind my way out of a hole), I don't mind in the least any fellow player watching me, hell I've got at least three sets of "staff" eyes on me, mainly because I haven't lost in way over a month, so now the heat has gone up and god know how many eyes in the sky upon me, every 500, 1000 chip I take is written down. Resorting to taking chips home to avoid making tax declarations, getting trusted acquainted to cash out for me (becoming more difficult).

In reality your just another disciplined punter, I see loads of them. systems players galore all betting the table minimums, maybe once per 10 hands, or less, $10 one side and $15 the other. Even watched some idiot who claiming to had been playing Baccarat for 20 years, he would put 65 one side and 60 the other, then 105 one side and 100 the other. I did suggest he only bet the difference, he said why, sometimes he would hit a bank 6 (ouch). Casino's are full of idiots, best leave them themselves and mind ones own business, I'm finding the best approach is focus on taking the casino's money, devoid myself on others people's business or thoughts, or broadcasting "hey look at me, what a great baccarat player I am".

Step into the real world gr8, next time you are at the tables, ask how many bother with internet forums!! You could start by a conversation by saying, I was reading blah on forum xyz, just to gauge if anybody else visits forums. In over 10 yrs of playing, I probably met less than 5 casino patrons that do so, what does that tell you. Those doing it, don't seek or need the attention.
Beethoven9th
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October 20th, 2013 at 4:12:02 PM permalink
Quote: egalite

Step into the real world gr8, next time you are at the tables, ask how many bother with internet forums!!

LOL

It always intrigues me what type of person would go to internet forums just to brag about how great they are at baccarat. And the GR8 One has been doing it for SEVEN years now! *facepalm*

I'll never understand this guy. He claims to share all this great knowledge for free, yet he has never actually talked about his system. Ever. And it was funny because another member was recently in AC and asked if he could watch him play. But guess what? The world's foremost expert in everything baccarat all of a sudden did his best Usain Bolt impression...lol
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egalite
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October 20th, 2013 at 5:08:43 PM permalink
Well I will admit, I've spent my fair share of time on the internet, as well as learning a lot, sometimes after any decent session, you're buzzing and sometimes crave urges to shout about it. Alas times moves on and you become older & more savvy, just like trying to wise up a chump in any casino, it simply isn't worth your effort, besides it being none of your business how or why they gift their money to the casino.

At the end of the day, you can't teach anybody to replicate how to play as you would, because they will never be you, will react differently to draw-downs, cap or limit bet amounts which is key to this game, handle casino heat differently and most of all, why would you want to, unless it was a good personal "real world" friend, i.e somebody you talk face to face with, not some make-believe friend on "da internet thingy".
soxfan
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October 20th, 2013 at 8:45:35 PM permalink
It sure is good to see the gr888888888one/john-O feud goin strong after all these years, hey hey.
" Life is a well of joy; but where the rabble drinks too, all wells are poisoned!" Nietzsche
gr8player
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October 21st, 2013 at 7:23:20 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

In reality, I'm fairly certain he dose not even play baccarat. If he dose it's such small limits he would be embarrassed to have anyone find out.



In whose "reality", AxelWolf? Yours?

And here you're portrayed by your pal mickeycrimm as a savvy AP.....

.....hmmm, it's difficult to fathom after reading such an absolutely inane comment coming from you.
Beethoven9th
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October 21st, 2013 at 7:29:24 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

In whose "reality", AxelWolf? Yours?

And here you're portrayed by your pal mickeycrimm as a savvy AP.....

.....hmmm, it's difficult to fathom after reading such an absolutely inane comment coming from you.


Hi, teacher! Are you ready for the challenge yet??
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gr8player
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October 21st, 2013 at 7:30:08 AM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

He's good at talking...and talking...and talking...while saying absolutely NOTHING. He's like the fat guy sitting on the couch every Sunday who thinks he's a better QB than Peyton Manning.



"Saying nothing", Beethoven9th?

That's a rather drastic assessment of my posts/threads, even coming from the likes of you, Beethoven9th.

Take some time to peruse this forum (or GG or BF) and really read with comprehension this time around; I think you'll find that there's alot of pertinent information about playing this game of Baccarat in a manner most conducive to winning.
gr8player
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October 21st, 2013 at 7:53:29 AM permalink
Quote: egalite

You stated your goal target a few threads earlier, you are insignificant small fry (not worthy labelling oneself "great-player"), the Oz dollar is on par with the green-back, my daily session goal target is 1k minimum, although it's been double that recently. Was playing $500 units over the weekend, placed a few 2500 bets without flinching (I had got into trouble and had to grind my way out of a hole), I don't mind in the least any fellow player watching me, hell I've got at least three sets of "staff" eyes on me, mainly because I haven't lost in way over a month, so now the heat has gone up and god know how many eyes in the sky upon me, every 500, 1000 chip I take is written down.



No reason for the "insignificant small fry" comment, Egalite. I'm black chip(s), that's "big enough" to make it worth my while and still remain in my own personal comfort zone. We all suffer through drawdowns at times, some worse than others, it remains paramount for any serious player to be certain that they're not caught "over-betting" and, hence, leaving themselves "under-funded". A critical mistake, IMHO.

Which leads us to your "was playing $500 units" and "placed a few 2500 bets without flinching" statements....

As you know, I'm an avid and astute Bac player with years of experience under my belt, Egalite.

"$500 units"...purple chip
"2500 bets"...either 2 pumpkins and purp, or 5 purps

That's some "heavy wood", my friend, by anyone's standards.

So, drawdowns....how might they affect a player betting with your stated increments?
How huge must your session buy-in amount be in order to support betting your stated increments?
Oh, and lastly...just who are to trying to impress and, even worse, bulls*it???

You accuse me of having a "hey look at me" attitude within my postings.....
.....well, you just surpassed the totality of all of my posts within those two quoted and obviously fictional betting increments.

Oh, unless you'd have us believe that your session bankroll surpasses $50,000....GTFOH....tell your "fishing stories" walkin'....
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