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Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
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May 13th, 2013 at 4:06:44 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Despite all the shouting 'round here of otherwise, it is doable.


Apparently you really don't think it's 'doable" since you're still running away from rdw4potus after you challenged him.



Quote: rdw4potus


Quote: On 5/4/13, gr8player said:

Still, I say: I'll take that bet. I'll graciously accept your house edge if you can live with mine. I'll take that bet.


You'll accept the real actual house edge in exchange for someone else accepting your completely false assumptions about watching and betting trends? You're on.


gr8player's response: *crickets*
Fighting BS one post at a time!
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
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May 13th, 2013 at 4:11:16 PM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Please don't listen to him. He's certainly entitled to his opinion, but the main problem I have with his posts is that new baccarat players might actually start buying what he says and will end up losing a lot of their money because of it.

Baccarat is a negative expectation game, and you cannot win trying to follow silly "trends".



Thanks for watching out for the common man.
Each day is better than the next
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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May 13th, 2013 at 5:04:18 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Killjoy

Yeah, pretty much the same since first grade and my "There is no Santa Claus" statement.
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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May 14th, 2013 at 12:01:25 PM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th


Yeah, and I see that you completely ignored rdw4potus' challenge.



Challenge? What sort of challenge? There was never, ever any personal agreement between myself and rdw4potus. Nor was there ever any challenge.

When I stated that "I'll take that bet", I was speaking in terms of my chances of success over the casino. It was not directed towards any singular person. If, in fact, either you or rdw4potus took that statement any differently than its original intent, that becomes more a problem amongst the two of you than it does with me.
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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May 14th, 2013 at 12:14:09 PM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

Sigh... you can only grind your money away, and it's just kind of sad to see that you think otherwise. The longer you can sustain an illusory upward grind, the faster a fall you're setting yourself up for. That's just a fact.



Hello, 24Bingo. I trust all is well with you.

Why "sad"? What's sad about playing a decent Bac game, and giving the casino all it can take insofar as making myself as "tough an out" as I can for them? There's nothing sad about that at all, my friend.

"Sad" is watching the "ploppies" simply throwing their money into the Atlantic Ocean with their totally irresponsible and nonsensical Bac play. That's sad.

Oh, and FYI 24Bingo, "sad" is seeing all of you self-annointed casino gate-keepers ASSUMING THAT EVERYONE plays this game just as irresponsibly and just as nonsensically.

Know this: As true as your "negative expectancy" exists at the Baccarat table, it's just as true that there exists some serious Bac players that have the knowledge, experience, and wherewithal to overcome it.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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May 14th, 2013 at 12:32:09 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player



"Sad" is watching the "ploppies" simply throwing their money into the Atlantic Ocean with their totally irresponsible and nonsensical Bac play. That's sad.
.



Then you don't understand how casinos work. Without
those 'sad' plopies, your game would close within a week.
You should thank god for them, and not demean them as
irresponsible.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
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May 14th, 2013 at 12:33:22 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Challenge? What sort of challenge? There was never, ever any personal agreement between myself and rdw4potus. Nor was there ever any challenge.

When I stated that "I'll take that bet", I was speaking in terms of my chances of success over the casino. It was not directed towards any singular person. If, in fact, either you or rdw4potus took that statement any differently than its original intent, that becomes more a problem amongst the two of you than it does with me.


Like I said, smart move. You would surely be exposed had you accepted rdw4potus' challenge.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
24Bingo
24Bingo
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
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May 16th, 2013 at 10:53:30 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Why "sad"? What's sad about playing a decent Bac game, and giving the casino all it can take insofar as making myself as "tough an out" as I can for them? There's nothing sad about that at all, my friend.

"Sad" is watching the "ploppies" simply throwing their money into the Atlantic Ocean with their totally irresponsible and nonsensical Bac play. That's sad.



Unlike a lot of this forum, I don't find that sad, so long as they realize that's what they're doing, and are only trying their luck with their disposable income. When I find it sad* is when they become superstitious, thinking they can affect the outcome one way or the other, or think they've somehow beaten the math, not by subverting the assumptions of the math (counting, edge sorting), but somehow that the math itself doesn't apply. The image you've projected in this thread personifies what I find sad.

(* Also when they bet the rent, whether or not they know what they're doing, but that's another story.)

Quote: gr8player

Oh, and FYI 24Bingo, "sad" is seeing all of you self-annointed casino gate-keepers ASSUMING THAT EVERYONE plays this game just as irresponsibly and just as nonsensically.



Here is what I assume:
-You make your decision between player and banker, and how much to bet, based on patterns of prior cards that, assuming a random shuffle, have minimal effect on the outcome.
-You are not even consistent in these patterns.
-The shuffle is sufficiently random that nearly all patterns fall into this category.

The first two, you've said as much in this thread. The third I'll take on faith (note that this is fairly easy to achieve), but it has nothing to do with one's "responsibility."

Quote: gr8player

Know this: As true as your "negative expectancy" exists at the Baccarat table, it's just as true that there exists some serious Bac players that have the knowledge, experience, and wherewithal to overcome it.



Edge sorters, sure. But they're not the ones you're talking about. You're essentially saying there's a mathematical edge, and a "player's edge" working against it, one I can only describe as "spiritual." Rather than challenging the assumptions under which the edge is calculated as APs do, you think you can compartmentalize mathematics, and layer some nebulous thing on top of it. You seem to think that math is just made up of arithmetic and some arcane symbols further down the line, but what you don't realize is that both of those are just shorthand for inferences starting from the barest principles. A professor once said to me that a statement in mathematics, when you truly understand it, is either trivial, or unproven, and the more thoroughly you look into even the strangest-seeming results, the clearer that becomes. What mathematics ultimately is is nothing more or less than reason itself.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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May 18th, 2013 at 8:58:38 AM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

Here is what I assume:
-You make your decision between player and banker, and how much to bet, based on patterns of prior cards that, assuming a random shuffle, have minimal effect on the outcome.
-You are not even consistent in these patterns.
-The shuffle is sufficiently random that nearly all patterns fall into this category.



I'm afraid, 24Bingo, that your assumptions about my Bac play are, for the most part, inaccurate.

Hmmmm.....that statement says alot more than you might think....the "assuming a random shuffle". I am of the belief that this closed-end shoe game, where both the cards and their outcomes are fixed/unchangeable, offers the savvy bettor certain, shall I say, betting opportunities. 'nuff said 'bout that in a public forum....

As to my "consistency in those patterns"....another misconception on your part. My bets might change (sizes and placements, according to each shoe's propensities), but my play is nothing if not consistent, patient, and disciplined. Know that, my friend.

As to the "random shuffle" part, I again, must defer to discretion here, and state simply that you, 24Bingo, just might not have the same insights into this game as do I.

Finally, 24Bingo, it bears mentioning that I truly do understand where you're coming from. And I understand just how correct and exact that you think you are. Math is not subjective, there is only one math. I get it, 24Bingo. But, that said, I wish not to get into semantics here, my friend.

My goal is not to convince anyone of anything; rather, my goal is to get the better of this game. And my doing so (or even not doing so) should have absolutely zero effect on your steadfast belief in the absolute invulnerability of that daunted house edge. I get that, am I'm fine with it. You keep right on believing, my friend....just know, so will I. Be well.......
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
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May 18th, 2013 at 9:35:31 AM permalink
Notice how he keeps ignoring the challenge?
Fighting BS one post at a time!

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