Thread Rating:

liuryan
liuryan
Joined: May 2, 2013
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 8
May 2nd, 2013 at 8:17:53 AM permalink
Does anyone play baccarat everyday and leave the casino after winning $400 per day?
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
May 2nd, 2013 at 8:31:08 AM permalink
Short answer: No
Fighting BS one post at a time!
liuryan
liuryan
Joined: May 2, 2013
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 8
May 2nd, 2013 at 8:45:47 AM permalink
Are professional gamblers a myth? Thinking out loud
liuryan
liuryan
Joined: May 2, 2013
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 8
Thanks for this post from:
dawinnaatlozins
May 2nd, 2013 at 8:52:03 AM permalink
Then again, if I was a professional gambler, I wouldn't be looking at this website anyway.
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 5197
May 2nd, 2013 at 9:11:17 AM permalink
Here's the thing about professional gambling. Even when you have the edge, you can be beat. Even when the edge is against you, you can win.

Baccarat is an example of a game where there is a larger percentage of people who play that game who have been lucky enough to have lifetime wins compared to other games (for example, double-zero roulette).

For those lucky people, they can play the game professionally.

But as far as setting out to be one of those lucky people, it's like setting out to inherit money. It happens to you, not as a result of something you do, you just either have it or you don't.

But can anyone do it? No! But is there someone doing it? Absolutely! And they do! But the anyone versus someone is the distinction. And those lucky people will sometimes think that their luck is the result of "following the dragon" or other cultural myths related to being lucky.

The Asian culture has plenty of it's own tales to explain the fortune of those who are lucky.

Baccarat holds in Nevada were 1.2 billion dollars over the last 12 months. Some Baccarat players play so huge and so big they take a few risks very very infrequently and coast! That's the way to win. Having over $100,000 on a single bet in Baccarat is something that happens every day in Las Vegas in the few places that cater to these individuals, many of whom are very lucky.

But these same people who do this are not like you and I at all, assuming you're an American. Go and observe them in the high limit rooms and you can see for yourself, though. It's entertaining to watch.
aahigh.com
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
May 2nd, 2013 at 10:01:47 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
vendman1
vendman1
Joined: Mar 12, 2012
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 1034
May 2nd, 2013 at 10:06:20 AM permalink
Quote: liuryan

Then again, if I was a professional gambler, I wouldn't be looking at this website anyway.



Really?...enlighten us as to where we could get better info. I think you'll find the members/staff here pretty knowledgeable.
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 606
Thanks for this post from:
RaccoonBoy
May 2nd, 2013 at 10:09:25 AM permalink
Quote: liuryan

Does anyone play baccarat everyday and leave the casino after winning $400 per day?



I'm not as sure about any exact dollar amount as much as I am sure about those that "play baccarat and leave winning" on a fairly consistent basis.

And, liuryan, as much as it might seem rather difficult to fathom to the majority on this forum, it is not very difficult to accomplish.

The commonalities among these sorts of Bac players are as follows:

1.) Strict bet selection process: They don't "guess" as to where to bet, and they don't stray from their "preferred" plays.

2.) Strict money-management rules: Tight won goals and stop losses. Win goals anywhere between 10 and 20 percent. Win more? Sometimes. But always put a "hold" on that 10-20%, and never dip into it. Never turn a winner into a potential loser. Never. Stop losses? Even more important. At a difficult session, get as much "recoup" as you can and either a) quit at "even", or b) "eat" the remaining loss, as miniscule as you can get it down to. Losses shortened and/or averted are as good as wins; true winners are well aware of this reality.

3.) Know your strengths and your weaknesses, and remain truthful in those self-assessments. Only then can you maximize their usefulness.

4.) Keep meticulous records of your Bac play. Write down everything, because "everything" matters. Only this way will you become familiar with your statistics and variances. And then, eventually, you'll come to embrace those stats/variances. And what does that do for you? It eliminates (or, at the very least, lessens) the "element of surprise" at the tables. You're better prepared. Which leads to a better state of mind at the tables.

Can you see how one thing leads to another, to another, to another......
.......all, accumulatively, leading to long term success at this game. (Or, at the very least, it puts you in the very best possible position to succeed. And, frankly, isn't that our most imperative responsibility at the tables?) Baccarat gaming is a unique "proposition". A unique undertaking. It take a unique person with a unique personality (read: mindset) and a unique temperament (read: patient/disciplined) with a unique desire to succeed. And, even then, you're guaranteed nothing.....every shoe, every session, the "counter resets to zero" and you've got to do it all over yet again, for the umpteenth time.....proving your mettle over and over again. The easiest and surest way to do that? Accept short wins, graciously, and move on......play your very best game, at all times, and move on.....accept minor losses, graciously, and move on...... Always knowing that it is you that'll get the better of it over the long term, if only you can keep yourself from messing that up.

I wish you all the very best of it.
cclub79
cclub79
Joined: Dec 16, 2009
  • Threads: 35
  • Posts: 1147
May 2nd, 2013 at 10:09:30 AM permalink
Quote: vendman1

Really?...enlighten us as to where we could get better info. I think you'll find the members/staff here pretty knowledgeable.



Yes. A better statement would be a professional gambler would have little reason to POST on this board, but absolutely they'd want to look at it.
vendman1
vendman1
Joined: Mar 12, 2012
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 1034
May 2nd, 2013 at 10:11:12 AM permalink
Quote: cclub79

Yes. A better statement would be a professional gambler would have little reason to POST on this board, but absolutely they'd want to look at it.



Ok that I can agree with.. just found the OP a little snarky that's all.
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
May 2nd, 2013 at 10:12:49 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Baccarat is an example of a game where there is a larger percentage of people who play that game who have been lucky enough to have lifetime wins compared to other games (for example, double-zero roulette).

For those lucky people, they can play the game professionally.


Ahigh, what in the world are you talking about? Baccarat is a negative expectation game. Everybody loses in the long run.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7237
May 2nd, 2013 at 10:16:04 AM permalink
Don't professional gamblers limit their play to games that are beatable? +EV VP, counting BJ, hole-carding carnival games, etc. Why would they play Baccarat, when it's not possible to get an edge in that game?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7237
May 2nd, 2013 at 10:18:27 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh


Baccarat is an example of a game where there is a larger percentage of people who play that game who have been lucky enough to have lifetime wins compared to other games (for example, double-zero roulette).

For those lucky people, they can play the game professionally.

But as far as setting out to be one of those lucky people, it's like setting out to inherit money. It happens to you, not as a result of something you do, you just either have it or you don't.



Whether they've had luck in the past or not, every additional visit to the table is like setting out to inherit money. Sure, there are people who set out hoping to continue their good luck. But, there's no logical reason at all why the luck would/should continue in the future.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
May 2nd, 2013 at 10:20:00 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
klimate10
klimate10
Joined: Feb 6, 2012
  • Threads: 35
  • Posts: 396
May 2nd, 2013 at 10:25:33 AM permalink
You can only win at Baccarat if you practice card control/card influence. With only 1% HE, you only need to influence one hand out of a 100 before you have an edge. (I didn't write this...hmmm)
Last edited by: klimate10 on Jul 24, 2017
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
  • Threads: 53
  • Posts: 5936
May 2nd, 2013 at 10:48:24 AM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Ahigh, what in the world are you talking about? Baccarat is a negative expectation game. Everybody loses in the long run.



Define the long run. Not everyone loses over their life times. Everyone is -expected- to lose, but they may not actually lose.

It's possible over a large number of hands of baccarat to be in the positive. It's rare, and the variance of baccarat is so low, I'd expect the large number of hands to be less than other games to have more than 1% of the players to be positive. I'd even guess that the number of hands is less than that for playing a number straight up on a double zero roulette wheel.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
May 2nd, 2013 at 11:34:01 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Define the long run. Not everyone loses over their life times. Everyone is -expected- to lose, but they may not actually lose.


I knew somebody was going to ask this. As you well know, it's not definable, but since he was talking about playing baccarat "professionally", I think everyone gets the gist of that statement.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
paigower
paigower
Joined: Jan 4, 2012
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 28
May 2nd, 2013 at 11:46:18 AM permalink
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/08/golden_nugget_suing_card_manuf.html

Unshuffled decks = negative expectation game turned on its head.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 164
  • Posts: 22205
May 2nd, 2013 at 12:10:43 PM permalink
Quote: liuryan

Does anyone play baccarat everyday and leave the casino after winning $400 per day?

I guess you got your answer however let make sure you get the point.The short answer is absolutely not. So if you found some system online or read some book claiming you can win at , craps, roulette,keno it's probably BULL. If some guy on a message board or in real life claims you/they can make $400 a day gambling in the casino (especially baccarat) then it's probably BS. I remember back in the 90's-early 00's When someone would mention they were a professional gambler, people would always claim they have some uncle or friend that dose the same thing, followed by a story how their uncle/friend always wins in the casinos. Now days if someone mentions they gamble for a living they assume that person plays poker. Followed by a story how good they or their boyfriend is.

If someone its trying to get you to buy something or put money up or take a class DON'T DO IT. Anything legitimate like Advantage play's like Video poker (certainly a consistent $200- $400 a day was possible on VP in the 90's) You can find all the information online including this Forum.

mathematically you can not beat games like Craps,keno, roulette, baccarat or other games like let it ride or 3 card poker. There are occasionally Angles on all casino games, things like seeing a dealers card in 3 card poker,taking advantage of dealers mistakes. Real Advantage players don't usually quote daily figures they will usually tell you an average overall hourly.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Keyser
Keyser
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
  • Threads: 35
  • Posts: 2106
May 2nd, 2013 at 12:18:27 PM permalink
Yes,

You can play baccarat professionally.

There are people playing with an edge.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 164
  • Posts: 22205
May 2nd, 2013 at 12:43:10 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

Yes,

You can play baccarat professionally.

There are people playing with an edge.

A built in mathematical edge? or is it some extra advantage like loss rebates,Comps. Would you explain ? what % advantage do they have and why?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 2871
May 2nd, 2013 at 1:09:23 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

You can play baccarat professionally. There are people playing with an edge.

I agree with this.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
May 2nd, 2013 at 2:30:17 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 5197
May 2nd, 2013 at 2:36:57 PM permalink
There are some known cheats. I always thought that Bac was too complicated to play with an edge unless you're cheating (IE: using a computer and doing counts to exploit ties at the end of the shoe) or otherwise knowing what cards are coming up somehow (the famous wrist camera, etc).
aahigh.com
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
May 2nd, 2013 at 2:41:35 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 2871
May 2nd, 2013 at 3:01:56 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

I always thought that Bac was too complicated to play with an edge unless you're cheating

Players still beat the ribbon spread. One woman has specialized in edge sorts. Some play against side bets. There are some variants of baccarat that are vulnerable to card counting. Some beat baccarat by exploiting loss rebate or dead-chip programs. Hole carding can happen, though it's rare. There are all the methods of advantage play I don't know.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
24Bingo
24Bingo
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
  • Threads: 23
  • Posts: 1348
May 2nd, 2013 at 3:15:31 PM permalink
Keyser, of course, has the ultimate loss rebate.

I'm sure there are some people out there "chasing the dragon" successfully, but there's no reason their luck won't run out tomorrow. Then again, in a game as loose as baccarat, it could go on a very long time, and the length of time they've been lucky doesn't make that any less likely, either.

Quote: klimate10

You can only win at Baccarat if you practice card control/card influence. With only 1% HE, you only need to influence one hand out of a 100 before you have an edge.



...what.

In any case, I don't doubt that there's probably a practical way to break the tie bet. (Certainly, if the shoe has only even cards left, you've got a huge edge with the tie bet, but the spread you'd need to make money over time with such a rare event is impossible.) Don't ask me what it is, though.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
s2dbaker
s2dbaker
Joined: Jun 10, 2010
  • Threads: 51
  • Posts: 3259
Thanks for this post from:
RaccoonBoy
May 2nd, 2013 at 3:30:48 PM permalink
One could play Baccarat professionally but they would have to finance their profession by doing a job for which they get paid like plumber or carpenter or call center phone minder or Wal-Mart greeter.

It's really easy to be a professional Baccarat player when the only skills required are placing your chips on Player, Bank or Tie.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
May 2nd, 2013 at 4:14:13 PM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

One could play Baccarat professionally but they would have to finance their profession by doing a job for which they get paid like plumber or carpenter or call center phone minder or Wal-Mart greeter.


Plumbers and carpenters definitely make more than Walmart greeters.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
s2dbaker
s2dbaker
Joined: Jun 10, 2010
  • Threads: 51
  • Posts: 3259
May 2nd, 2013 at 7:07:19 PM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Plumbers and carpenters definitely make more than Walmart greeters.

Alrighty then, Costco greeter.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
May 3rd, 2013 at 1:58:58 AM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

Alrighty then, Costco greeter.


LOL!...that's why I like you, bro.

Plumbers, carpenters, and other skilled laborers make substantially more than Walmart/Costco greeters, but (getting back on topic) I get your overall point about baccarat and playing it professionally. ;)
Fighting BS one post at a time!
kubikulann
kubikulann
Joined: Jun 28, 2011
  • Threads: 27
  • Posts: 905
May 3rd, 2013 at 6:07:58 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh



Baccarat is an example of a game where there is a larger percentage of people who play that game who have been lucky enough to have lifetime wins compared to other games (for example, double-zero roulette).

For those lucky people, they can play the game professionally.


Luck, in statistical terms, is like a posterior distribution. You can never say someone "will be" lucky. All that exists is that someone "has been" lucky, either in this play session or in his life.

So, essentially, knowledge that you are a lucky person means you know that you HAD luck. How is it going to help you for future games?

(Unless you believe in magic and curses and grace and predestination and all that. I don't. I hear that Asians and calvinists do.)
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
Keyser
Keyser
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
  • Threads: 35
  • Posts: 2106
May 3rd, 2013 at 1:57:12 PM permalink
**Whiff Puff. **


-Keyser
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
  • Threads: 88
  • Posts: 6526
May 3rd, 2013 at 2:13:26 PM permalink
If you're suggesting that there is a design flaw on the backs of cards such that they are as good as marked -- without deliberate edge sorting by the player -- I'd hope that you're wrong. Willy Allison reported on edge sorting in baccarat by high rollers who insisted on a specific procedure, basically getting the dealers to edge-sort the deck for them:
http://www.worldgameprotection.com/the-catwalk/ptz/BOSVIEW/When-it-Comes-to-High-Rollers-Watch-Your-Backs/

There are also ways to exploit dealer procedure during the shuffle and know where certain cards are. It's called location play:
http://georgejosephtraining.com/Baccarat%20First%20Card%20Advantage%20Back%20Cut.pdf
http://www.worldgameprotection.com/the-catwalk/casino-ology/BOSVIEW/The-Baccarat-Procedure-That-Advantage-Players-Love/
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 164
  • Posts: 22205
May 3rd, 2013 at 2:40:15 PM permalink
Keyser I agree with you I 100% think this is possible. I noticed slight differences on the backs of cards years ago when the casinos were dealing War I even mentioned it, however I believed one would have to get to close very (face right down to the cards and study them noticeably) Even if it was not that hard. I figured one would need a team to do this at that point it's possibility collusion.

With that being said I believe the original poster is talking about using some betting SYSTEM or something. People should understand you can't beat most table games if you play them within the casino rules or how they were originally designed.
That doesn't mean there are not rare exceptions to the rule. Casino have put in flawed games.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
liuryan
liuryan
Joined: May 2, 2013
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 8
May 3rd, 2013 at 6:06:23 PM permalink
Are there people out there who use martingale system on baccarat for 2 hours a day in a casino and leave after winning? I read that the martingale system has a higher chance of winning when you use it for a short period of time
liuryan
liuryan
Joined: May 2, 2013
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 8
May 3rd, 2013 at 6:13:00 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

I'm not as sure about any exact dollar amount as much as I am sure about those that "play baccarat and leave winning" on a fairly consistent basis.

And, liuryan, as much as it might seem rather difficult to fathom to the majority on this forum, it is not very difficult to accomplish.

The commonalities among these sorts of Bac players are as follows:

1.) Strict bet selection process: They don't "guess" as to where to bet, and they don't stray from their "preferred" plays.

2.) Strict money-management rules: Tight won goals and stop losses. Win goals anywhere between 10 and 20 percent. Win more? Sometimes. But always put a "hold" on that 10-20%, and never dip into it. Never turn a winner into a potential loser. Never. Stop losses? Even more important. At a difficult session, get as much "recoup" as you can and either a) quit at "even", or b) "eat" the remaining loss, as miniscule as you can get it down to. Losses shortened and/or averted are as good as wins; true winners are well aware of this reality.

3.) Know your strengths and your weaknesses, and remain truthful in those self-assessments. Only then can you maximize their usefulness.

4.) Keep meticulous records of your Bac play. Write down everything, because "everything" matters. Only this way will you become familiar with your statistics and variances. And then, eventually, you'll come to embrace those stats/variances. And what does that do for you? It eliminates (or, at the very least, lessens) the "element of surprise" at the tables. You're better prepared. Which leads to a better state of mind at the tables.

Can you see how one thing leads to another, to another, to another......
.......all, accumulatively, leading to long term success at this game. (Or, at the very least, it puts you in the very best possible position to succeed. And, frankly, isn't that our most imperative responsibility at the tables?) Baccarat gaming is a unique "proposition". A unique undertaking. It take a unique person with a unique personality (read: mindset) and a unique temperament (read: patient/disciplined) with a unique desire to succeed. And, even then, you're guaranteed nothing.....every shoe, every session, the "counter resets to zero" and you've got to do it all over yet again, for the umpteenth time.....proving your mettle over and over again. The easiest and surest way to do that? Accept short wins, graciously, and move on......play your very best game, at all times, and move on.....accept minor losses, graciously, and move on...... Always knowing that it is you that'll get the better of it over the long term, if only you can keep yourself from messing that up.

I wish you all the very best of it.







I totally agree.
MakingBook
MakingBook
Joined: Sep 19, 2011
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 496
May 4th, 2013 at 6:15:17 AM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

Keyser, of course, has the ultimate loss rebate.



I agree. It's tough to beat "The Keyser Loss Rebate."- make a bet, lose, don't pay.
"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7237
Thanks for this post from:
Yuyu
May 4th, 2013 at 6:51:35 AM permalink
Quote: liuryan

Are there people out there who use martingale system on baccarat for 2 hours a day in a casino and leave after winning? I read that the martingale system has a higher chance of winning when you use it for a short period of time



I'm sure there are people who play this way. But they don't win every time. They have many small wins, and some very large losses. That's the nature of the martingale system, and session length does not affect the end result.

If Baccarat was as easy to beat as you seem to be suggesting, we'd all be out playing it right now.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Mosca
Mosca
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
  • Threads: 191
  • Posts: 4140
May 4th, 2013 at 7:06:01 AM permalink
Quote: klimate10

You can only win at Baccarat if you practice card control/card influence. With only 1% HE, you only need to influence one hand out of a 100 before you have an edge.



Alternately, you can practice guessing what the next cards will be, and play when you get really good at it. Either way.
A falling knife has no handle.
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 606
Thanks for this post from:
MaksRaccoonBoy
May 4th, 2013 at 8:36:47 AM permalink
I don't "guess". Ever.

Now, does that mean that I do, in fact, know what the "next cards will be"? Of course not.

But, Mosca, my friend, if you truly know how to approach and play this closed-end, shoe game called Baccarat, you truly can "get really good" at it.

No, not knowing the exact cards, but knowing how certain shoe characteristics (read: trends) trends begin to develope, and how those trends flow from one to another. Heck, even the absence of trends is, in fact, a trend. It's a "no-bet" trend, but a recognizable trend nonetheless, as recognizable as any domination (read: a trend where one side dominates most of the current results....very bettable).

Alot of you fellas in this esteemed forum seem to choose to believe in the casino math rather than in the player method. That's OK. I get it. Safe, very safe. Doesn't cost you fellas a dime to simply dismiss the game as unbeatable due to the built-in mathematics of it all. Safe, very safe. And, in this forum, might I add: popular, very popular.

But, know this: While the math is undeniable, that doesn't mean it's unbeatable. It doesn't preclude certain players from getting the better of this game.

But, that said, I ask myself: Who, exactly, am I trying to convince of this? Isn't it true that only I need believe in it for it to mean a thing to me? Sure it is.

So, you fellas can keep right on sitting on that most safest and popular side of the fence. Nice and warm and cozy over there, ain't it? Enjoy.....
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
  • Threads: 53
  • Posts: 5936
May 4th, 2013 at 9:50:07 AM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

I knew somebody was going to ask this. As you well know, it's not definable, but since he was talking about playing baccarat "professionally", I think everyone gets the gist of that statement.



Actually, it is definable. Just takes some imagination.

For example, the long term is considered where the average, non-AP player betting single units has less than a 1% chance of being ahead. That of course self defines the what I was getting at.

Or, the number of hands that a player could get by playing 20 hours a week for year (I'm not sure what the yearly hours for the average professional counters on here are, I seem to recall this was it, but might be wrong). - 1000 hours, for example.

My point is, understand what you mean by the long term. It might be longer than you actually think, and it is possible to be ahead. The idea of being a professional in a game in which you have no edge or advantage seems... laughable, for sure. But never under estimate the chance of a lucky stiff.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
May 4th, 2013 at 10:39:47 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

My point is, understand what you mean by the long term...


I get your point, but I have a feeling that you also understood exactly what I meant when I talked about losing in the "long run".
Fighting BS one post at a time!
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7237
May 4th, 2013 at 11:18:27 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player


No, not knowing the exact cards, but knowing how certain shoe characteristics (read: trends) trends begin to develope, and how those trends flow from one to another. Heck, even the absence of trends is, in fact, a trend. It's a "no-bet" trend, but a recognizable trend nonetheless, as recognizable as any domination (read: a trend where one side dominates most of the current results....very bettable).



Trends? Really? So, you're assuming that the cards are predictably non-random?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Keyser
Keyser
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
  • Threads: 35
  • Posts: 2106
May 4th, 2013 at 12:49:16 PM permalink
You can't win in the long run by betting "trends" because you can't step outside of probability.
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 606
Thanks for this post from:
RaccoonBoy
May 4th, 2013 at 1:39:46 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Trends? Really? So, you're assuming that the cards are predictably non-random?



Assuming, rdw4potus? I don't assume very much, especially Bac-wise.

I just know that most shoes.....MOST shoes.....have a prevailing trend, which translates into dollars....REAL dollars....."ASSUMING" one knows what to look for.

That trend might last a few decisions, it might last longer, but, make no mistake of it, it will put money into my pocket.

It also might dissipate as quickly as it appeared, in which case, I will lose my bet on it.

Then I'll await the next trend. If I find myself in a shoe where the trends are not "holding", I'll "sit on my hands" (read: no-bet).

When a decent trend does hold up for a few winning decisions, again, I make money on it.

So, let's recap:

I bet where I want to.
I bet when I want to.
I bet the amount I want to.
I quit when I want to.

For these player's edges (and a bit more in my arsenal), the casino charges me roughly 1% on each bet.

No "assumining ANYTHING predictable", rdw4potus. I claim no predictive powers.

Still, I say: I'll take that bet. I'll graciously accept your house edge if you can live with mine. I'll take that bet.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7237
May 4th, 2013 at 1:42:17 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player



Still, I say: I'll take that bet. I'll graciously accept your house edge if you can live with mine. I'll take that bet.



You'll accept the real actual house edge in exchange for someone else accepting your completely false assumptions about watching and betting trends? You're on.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 606
May 4th, 2013 at 1:56:44 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

You can't win in the long run by betting "trends" because you can't step outside of probability.



Sorry, Keyser, but that statement is incorrect.

I can (and do) make my own probability, my own stats, my own variances.....because I keep track of all of them. And I then adjust my play accordingly, mostly on a money-management basis.

Example:

My last Bac session, at Mohegan Sun, saw me (and, thusly, my trends) do unusually well. I won better than 60% of my bets, almost to 2 out of every 3 bets.

While my walk to the cage was a good one, I know that my trends do not perform at that outrageous strike rate, and so I am awaiting the impending variance correction.

While I am waiting, I will adjust my bets DOWNWARD. In this way, that impending correction will cost me (and my bankroll) as little damage as possible.

Obviously, I take advantage of that situation in reverse, as well, where I'll adjust my bets upward after an unusual downturn in my variance.

That's the kind of game I play. Calculated.

And that affords me the opportunity to, in fact, "step outside of probability", Keyser.

Sidenote: Please note that I wish not to take on the responsibilty of a lengthy debate regarding my play or my methodologies. I ask no one to believe anything that they, themselves, see as either improbable or, worse, impossible. I respect your opinions, and I trust we are working reciprocally regarding mine.
I work full-time, and I haven't nearly the computer-access time necessary to adress all issues herein. There is no sin in, simply stated, agreeing to disagree.

I wish all of you the very best of it.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
May 4th, 2013 at 1:57:35 PM permalink
Quote: liuryan

Does anyone play baccarat everyday and leave the casino after winning $400 per day?

Sure. Its easy. Just have enough capital to keep placing bets down, join in the fun and be patient. It may take you ten grand before you win your four hundred but usually it won't take anywhere near that much. Eventually you will win four hundred. You may not be in the plus column for the day but you will have won four hundred. Some time after that event you can leave the casino. Flat broke perhaps, but you can leave.
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
May 4th, 2013 at 2:07:51 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Sure. Its easy. Just have enough capital to keep placing bets down, join in the fun and be patient. It may take you ten grand before you win your four hundred but usually it won't take anywhere near that much. Eventually you will win four hundred. You may not be in the plus column for the day but you will have won four hundred. Some time after that event you can leave the casino. Flat broke perhaps, but you can leave.


LOL
Fighting BS one post at a time!

  • Jump to: