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gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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September 11th, 2013 at 1:41:12 PM permalink
.....which comes first, to put it in Baccarat terms, the bet selection or the money-management?

I believe it's bet selection. I am of the opinion that one needs first to develope a solid and consistant bet selection process, and only then can one apply the correct money-management that will maximize both their time and their profit at the tables.

And, not just any bet selection method will do. One needs to develope plays that are:

1.) Statistically sound:

Just use simple math. One's will appear twice as often as two's will, but two's will appear twice as often as three's. Does any of that help you decide the "next bet". Nope. But, IMHO, that's not what bet selection is "all about". It's about consistency. Making the same plays all the time, when the shoe/table is so dispensed to, and playing the statistics. When you do that, you are able to better control your:

2.) Variance:

By playing the same, consistent bets, one is able to track their variances. And your variance is where the money is, my friends. All bets win and all bets lose, but to know roughly how far they'll "stretch" to either side is of utmost importance to any serious, long-term success.

Imagine this:

You lose on one (or more) of your plays at this particular session; might it be a good idea to increase your bet on that play at the next session. You bet it is.

Why? Because the variance is ripe for plucking.

Why? Because the statistics point that play out as a good one, because it's statistically proven to appear a certain amount of times within a certain amount of shoes.


That's why.

And that's why you must be consistent in your bets/plays. Otherwise, you have no variance if you're "all over the board". Then, you have no real money-management, no real "recoup" mode to utilize.

Oh, you can raise your bets, like most players do. Just don't forget to cross your fingers and hold your breath, as well.

But, the player that is betting consistantly sound bets......that player can rely on his stats to carry him through, if not this shoe/session, than the next shoe/session.

The math is the math. Try to design a bet selection that takes advantage of that fact. Then, when one play seems to be "dominant" in this particualr shoe, bet for it. As to the "laggards", simply track the variance on those, as well. And wait, just wait....because those are about to pop as well, and you want to be on them when they do.

I wish you all the very best of it.
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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September 11th, 2013 at 1:47:23 PM permalink
Back for more flogging???
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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September 11th, 2013 at 1:48:59 PM permalink
Why are there so many different threads discussing
this same boring topic? They could easily all fit in
one thread, they're all identical. Every time you have
a brain fart, you don't need to start a new thread
about it.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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September 11th, 2013 at 1:49:18 PM permalink
Hmmm...."The chicken of the egg?"....wonderful thread title, isn't it? Meant so say "The chicken OR the egg...." Sorry. Mistyped.
DeMango
DeMango
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September 11th, 2013 at 1:51:56 PM permalink
We would forgive you if that was the only thing wrong with the post. But alas, it degrades from there.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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September 11th, 2013 at 1:53:53 PM permalink
So the highlight was the title, DeMango? Alright then, "The chicken of the egg" it is. Settled. Thanks.
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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September 11th, 2013 at 1:58:38 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Why are there so many different threads discussing
this same boring topic? They could easily all fit in
one thread, they're all identical.



Boring? I should think not, at least not if you take this game seriously.

As to the repetition; I have a set way to play. Same approach, same methodology, same consistency.

One might be best served to ask themselves: Why would anyone play the exact same way each and every time?

Answer that for yourself, then you can get back to me with some intelligent queries regarding my Baccarat theories/plays.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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September 11th, 2013 at 2:09:38 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player



As to the repetition; I have a set way to play. Same approach, same methodology, same consistency.
.



And same boring repetitive threads. You know it's true.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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September 11th, 2013 at 2:10:30 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

I wish you all the very best of it.

And I wish you'd stop rehashing the gambler's fallacy. Tracking past outcomes in baccarat is not predictive of future outcomes. (Tracking cards is another thing, but you're not talking about that.)
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
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September 11th, 2013 at 2:17:35 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Tracking past outcomes in baccarat is not predictive of future outcomes.



True. I claim no "predictive" powers.

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