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lilredrooster
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June 29th, 2024 at 9:23:10 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

To illustrate the way parimutuel tracks operate, consider a match race between two horses where the public did not favor either. There is $100K bet on each horse. The track takes out 16% of $200K or $32K. This is the house edge and it is 16% before any boost from breakage.


yeah, you're right

my bad

the exception is the minus pools where for example bridge jumpers bet a gigantic amount on a 1/5 fave to show in a 5 horse field and the track cannot pay them less than $2.10 back by their rules no matter what the calculation is

there are I believe 3 tracks which require a minimum $2.20 payout - and I believe the jumpers follow those tracks like hawks - 10% profit might not seem like much - but hey, it's double everywhere else

in these situations the tracks can actually lose money on a horse race - but a comparatively gigantic amount must be bet by the jumpers for that to happen

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
Mental
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June 29th, 2024 at 11:20:40 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: Mental

To illustrate the way parimutuel tracks operate, consider a match race between two horses where the public did not favor either. There is $100K bet on each horse. The track takes out 16% of $200K or $32K. This is the house edge and it is 16% before any boost from breakage.


yeah, you're right

my bad

the exception is the minus pools where for example bridge jumpers bet a gigantic amount on a 1/5 fave to show in a 5 horse field and the track cannot pay them less than $2.10 back by their rules no matter what the calculation is

there are I believe 3 tracks which require a minimum $2.20 payout - and I believe the jumpers follow those tracks like hawks - 10% profit might not seem like much - but hey, it's double everywhere else

in these situations the tracks can actually lose money on a horse race - but a comparatively gigantic amount must be bet by the jumpers for that to happen

.
link to original post

I was once at the track for a four horse stakes race. The track would normally cancel the show pool, but they left it open just because it was a stakes race. A bridge jumper bet about $100K on one of the favorites to show near post time. I quickly bet a few hundred on the other favorite to show. The bridge jumper's horse pulled up on the far turn. One of the horses paid $28 to show! My show bet on the co-favorite paid $15 to show and $3.80 to win.
Last edited by: Mental on Jun 29, 2024
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
DRich
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June 29th, 2024 at 4:37:01 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: Mental

To illustrate the way parimutuel tracks operate, consider a match race between two horses where the public did not favor either. There is $100K bet on each horse. The track takes out 16% of $200K or $32K. This is the house edge and it is 16% before any boost from breakage.


yeah, you're right

my bad

the exception is the minus pools where for example bridge jumpers bet a gigantic amount on a 1/5 fave to show in a 5 horse field and the track cannot pay them less than $2.10 back by their rules no matter what the calculation is

there are I believe 3 tracks which require a minimum $2.20 payout - and I believe the jumpers follow those tracks like hawks - 10% profit might not seem like much - but hey, it's double everywhere else

in these situations the tracks can actually lose money on a horse race - but a comparatively gigantic amount must be bet by the jumpers for that to happen

.
link to original post

I was once at the track for a four horse stakes race. The track would normally cancel the show pool, but they left it open just because it was a stakes race. A bridge jumper bet about $100K on one of the favorites to show near post time. I quickly bet a few hundred on the other favorite to show. The bridge jumper's horse pulled up on the far turn. One of the horses paid $28 to show! My show bet on the co-favorite paid $15 to show and $3.80 to win.
link to original post



I love finding opportunities where the Show pool pays more than the Win pool.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Actuarial
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July 10th, 2024 at 1:28:24 PM permalink
Anyone attending Bet Bash next month? This will be my first time going. I was very successful betting 2019 - 2023 until every site limited/banned me, so not exactly sure the best angle to take with the conference.
SOOPOO
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July 13th, 2024 at 7:34:12 AM permalink
Just made 0 EV bets. One site had Paolini -130, another Krejcikova +130. Kept betting both until Paolini went to -135. I get points on both sites, essentially for free.
The sites have throttled back on the points for a bettor like me. I might not make even the second tier on MGM, Caesars, DraftKings this year. So any ‘free’ points are a bonus.
Actuarial
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July 14th, 2024 at 8:46:05 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Just made 0 EV bets. One site had Paolini -130, another Krejcikova +130. Kept betting both until Paolini went to -135. I get points on both sites, essentially for free.
The sites have throttled back on the points for a bettor like me. I might not make even the second tier on MGM, Caesars, DraftKings this year. So any ‘free’ points are a bonus.
link to original post



I use to do that for Caesars - made 7 stars for 2 years until they denied me 7 star status even with 400k TC. RCs still valuable though,

Also gets you VIP status at some books!
SOOPOO
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July 16th, 2024 at 3:53:12 AM permalink
Sites starting to give more WNBA action.
Have Sun under 153.5 $50 pays $118
Have Sun over 152.5. $60 pays $115

Either win $8, $5, or if exactly 153….. $123

Caesar’s had a ‘boost’ for Victor Hovland top 20 at +190. But they play ‘ties are losses’ which is different than all the other sites. It still seemed like a great bet. But no way for me to actually know. And the majority of Caesar’s boosts are still clearly -EV. Anyway, I took the offer, and when I checked later they lowered the odds to +150! That’s a pretty big move on this relatively obscure bet.
SOOPOO
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July 16th, 2024 at 7:00:40 PM permalink
Got another good one.
Aces -13.5. Sky +15. So win a little no matter what. Win a lot at 14, 1/2 a lot at 15.
odiousgambit
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July 17th, 2024 at 3:11:41 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Got another good one.
Aces -13.5. Sky +15. So win a little no matter what. Win a lot at 14, 1/2 a lot at 15.
link to original post

good job

I really had assumed this was a waste of time to look for this . hmmm

do you make big bets on it?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
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July 17th, 2024 at 11:59:54 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

Got another good one.
Aces -13.5. Sky +15. So win a little no matter what. Win a lot at 14, 1/2 a lot at 15.
link to original post

good job

I really had assumed this was a waste of time to look for this . hmmm

do you make big bets on it?
link to original post



No. They were both +EV bets using profit boosts so I was limited. I wasn’t even aware I had that middle when I made the bets. I’m guessing the value was literally a few dollars on each bet, so many would agree with you that it’s a waste of time. I enjoy finding these even if it just nets me a few $$
SOOPOO
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July 17th, 2024 at 3:43:24 PM permalink
Time for a public service announcement.

There are STARK differences in the odds offered on winning a NASCAR or F1 race from site to site.
DraftKings has Verstappen at -150
BetRivers has him at +100

Caesars has Hamlin at +400
FanDuel has him at +490

I’m guessing Verstappen at +100 is slightly -EV.
Imagine how - EV it is at -150!

My point being on bets where there are only two choices (e.g. Bills -7.5/ Cardinals +7.5, both at -110) the consumer (bettor) can easily tell what the vig is. On large field events with one winner not so easy.
Actuarial
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July 20th, 2024 at 6:54:31 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Time for a public service announcement.

There are STARK differences in the odds offered on winning a NASCAR or F1 race from site to site.
DraftKings has Verstappen at -150
BetRivers has him at +100

Caesars has Hamlin at +400
FanDuel has him at +490

I’m guessing Verstappen at +100 is slightly -EV.
Imagine how - EV it is at -150!

My point being on bets where there are only two choices (e.g. Bills -7.5/ Cardinals +7.5, both at -110) the consumer (bettor) can easily tell what the vig is. On large field events with one winner not so easy.
link to original post



You can devig it with a multi-way calculator. I wouldn't be surprised if they juice the favorite to hell.
SOOPOO
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July 22nd, 2024 at 3:55:59 AM permalink
I looked at the Germany basketball team roster. Playing USA. I see they have one NBA level starter (Fritz Wagner)and a few NBA level subs (Mo Wagner, Dennis Schroeder, Daniel Theis). I was able to get USA at -1000. Maybe I’m naive, but after the dismal performance against South Sudan I expect USA team to want to show well. Even if USA rests the ‘big names’, the bottom of their roster is good enough to beat any team the world has to offer.
If I get any offers I’ll also be betting on the USA to cover.
SOOPOO
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July 23rd, 2024 at 3:18:13 PM permalink
So the betting sites are experiencing ‘Skenes-mania’! Boosting his ‘over’ strikeouts up the wazoo.

Since these boosts are only for the ‘overs’, the books will certainly lose big $$$ if he goes over, and make big $$$ if he goes under. I took some free $$. Got over 7.5 at +150, under 7.5 at -108.
I got a bunch of +EV bets in at over 6.5.

Needed a longshot HR bet tonight. Gotta love the name Logan o’Hoppe!
Low odds HR bet also needed. Judge has made me $$ this year. Let’s ride him. Second one needed so taking a flyer on Olson.
SOOPOO
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July 25th, 2024 at 10:55:16 AM permalink
+EV (pretty sure) bet on Mets win/Lindor hit at +250 on FD. On the other sites get around +140/+150. Mets have been hot. Lindor very hot. And great track record against Sale, batting .429 against him over 32 at bats. I thought the +150 was fair, so +250 is juicy

Also really like Rays to win. They are slight underdogs but because of the juice I’m laying -102. No offer so likely a -EV bet, but Rays pitcher has been unhittable recently.

I just had an offer…. Fine print says each leg must be -200 or longer. They give examples…. Says +150, or -300, are acceptable. I tried chat to explain to them that -300 is shorter, not longer. Couldn’t explain it to them. They kept asking me ‘how can they help me’.
terapined
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July 25th, 2024 at 11:12:53 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I looked at the Germany basketball team roster. Playing USA. I see they have one NBA level starter (Fritz Wagner)and a few NBA level subs (Mo Wagner, Dennis Schroeder, Daniel Theis). I was able to get USA at -1000. Maybe I’m naive, but after the dismal performance against South Sudan I expect USA team to want to show well. Even if USA rests the ‘big names’, the bottom of their roster is good enough to beat any team the world has to offer.
If I get any offers I’ll also be betting on the USA to cover.
link to original post


I wonder about this US team
I watched them against Germany
LeBron heroics at the end saved the US
Otherwise Germany would have won
One player in particular I wonder about is Curry
He's not what he once was
He had a hard time covering Dennis Schroeder
1 for 7 on 3 pointers. Uggh
It got to the point I would cringe when he was shooting
US is too much one on one or taking a 3 rather then working as a team to get an easy open look
When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums
odiousgambit
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July 25th, 2024 at 11:23:58 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I just had an offer…. Fine print says each leg must be -200 or longer. They give examples…. Says +150, or -300, are acceptable. I tried chat to explain to them that -300 is shorter, not longer. Couldn’t explain it to them. They kept asking me ‘how can they help me’.
link to original post

I guess whoever wrote the examples is truly hopelessly in over their head. If you try to make the bet, I think you will find the people who set that up don't accept -300

not that limiting it to -200 or longer makes any sense to me anyway
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
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July 25th, 2024 at 11:38:43 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

I just had an offer…. Fine print says each leg must be -200 or longer. They give examples…. Says +150, or -300, are acceptable. I tried chat to explain to them that -300 is shorter, not longer. Couldn’t explain it to them. They kept asking me ‘how can they help me’.
link to original post

I guess whoever wrote the examples is truly hopelessly in over their head. If you try to make the bet, I think you will find the people who set that up don't accept -300

not that limiting it to -200 or longer makes any sense to me anyway
link to original post



Correct. Wouldn’t accept -300.
I’ve had offers that require two underdogs parlayed.
I have some offers that I need -150 or longer.
Many at -200 or longer.
Most common is -500 or longer.

The concept (I think?) is that they want the profit boost to be used for a ‘real’ parlay.
The profit boost level sometimes is tied to number of selections. So they don’t want 8 -10000 picks combined with one +100 pick to essentially just boost the +100 pick.
DRich
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July 25th, 2024 at 1:07:48 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

So the betting sites are experiencing ‘Skenes-mania’! Boosting his ‘over’ strikeouts up the wazoo.



Even with his first career loss on Tuesday he only gave up 2 run in eight innings. Besides how high his strikeouts are, look how low his walks are. This is the best start by a rookie pitcher in my 50 years of watching baseball.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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July 25th, 2024 at 2:14:12 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

So the betting sites are experiencing ‘Skenes-mania’! Boosting his ‘over’ strikeouts up the wazoo.



Even with his first career loss on Tuesday he only gave up 2 run in eight innings. Besides how high his strikeouts are, look how low his walks are. This is the best start by a rookie pitcher in my 50 years of watching baseball.
link to original post



I think Valenzuela has him beat. 8 shutouts his rookie year. I doubt Skenes gets 8 shutouts in his career. But he is the real deal. Hopefully doesn’t get injured like Spencer Strider did. Strider was Skenes last year.

Rays up 8-0. Bradley has been super. I know who I’m betting on 5 days from today.
DRich
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July 25th, 2024 at 3:23:34 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

So the betting sites are experiencing ‘Skenes-mania’! Boosting his ‘over’ strikeouts up the wazoo.



Even with his first career loss on Tuesday he only gave up 2 run in eight innings. Besides how high his strikeouts are, look how low his walks are. This is the best start by a rookie pitcher in my 50 years of watching baseball.
link to original post



I think Valenzuela has him beat. 8 shutouts his rookie year. I doubt Skenes gets 8 shutouts in his career. But he is the real deal. Hopefully doesn’t get injured like Spencer Strider did. Strider was Skenes last year.

Rays up 8-0. Bradley has been super. I know who I’m betting on 5 days from today.
link to original post



I don't remember much from Fernando's rookie year. I was only 13 and I spent 7 months in the hospital in 1980.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
lilredrooster
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July 26th, 2024 at 10:47:05 AM permalink
.
a couple of props offered by DraftKings at this moment

-110 -Keider Montero (Tigers) under 4.5 KOs vs. the Twins - he's been under that in 4 out his last 5 games

- 120 - Gavin Stone (Dodgers) under 17.5 outs vs. Astros - he's had 3 short outings in a row and has been under that in 4 out of his last 5 times out

glta

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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July 26th, 2024 at 1:27:30 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
a couple of props offered by DraftKings at this moment

-110 -Keider Montero (Tigers) under 4.5 KOs vs. the Twins - he's been under that in 4 out his last 5 games

- 120 - Gavin Stone (Dodgers) under 17.5 outs vs. Astros - he's had 3 short outings in a row and has been under that in 4 out of his last 5 times out

glta

.
link to original post



Amazingly, before you posted this, I took Montero under 4.5 K’s in one of my parlays. I’ll look to use Stone under 17.5 outs as well.

My Rays bet was spot on. 13-0.
My Lindor hit/ Mets win won. It was even better. After my post BetMGM gave +450 on him to get an RBI and Mets win. He crushed an early home run.

BetRivers has me betting $500 on Olympics. Must be on bets -200 or longer. Get free bet of around $120. (Total US medals). With the slightly added juice on Olympics bet it’s barely +EV, but I do get ‘points’ for all those generally -EV bets as well. My first sojourn will be on the Canadian men’s basketball team. And also a specific bet on them to win the silver medal. I don’t know how the brackets go, but if they can avoid the USA ‘side’ of the bracket, I think they are the second best team.
SOOPOO
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July 26th, 2024 at 2:04:56 PM permalink
Using a previously earned profit boost…. similar to last night….
Taking underdog Pirates and under 8.5 at +660. Pirates pitcher has been very good recently.
lilredrooster
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July 27th, 2024 at 4:47:41 AM permalink
.
tanked yesterday
new strategy using covers.com (trends click) picking an over or under based on when both teams have a significant positive r.o.i. on the over or both have a significant positive r.o.i. on the under for a significant no. of games
yesterday there were 7 picks from this that went 7-0 - I didn't post them - not tryin to brag about stuff I didn't post - just showing reason for hopefulness

today:

reds/rays u 7.5
guardians/phillies u 9
twins/tigers o 7
cubs/royals u 8.5
dodgers/astros u 8.5
nationals/cardinals o 8
yankees/red sox o 9.5
rockies/giants o7.5

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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July 28th, 2024 at 5:15:53 AM permalink
.
yesterday's o/u picks went 4-3

not posting the odds - they're not always -110 - but I think they average out to be about that

today:

reds/rays u 7.5
guardians/phillies u 9.5
twins/tigers o 8
cubs/royals u 8.5
nationals/cardinals o 8.5
rockies/giants o 7.5
yankees/red sox o 9

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
avianrandy
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July 28th, 2024 at 2:56:29 PM permalink
Former retired sportscaster went to cardinal game yesterday. 2 hour delay. Cards destroyed by Nationals 14-4
lilredrooster
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July 29th, 2024 at 2:05:08 AM permalink
.
the MLB o/u strategy that I'm using went 4-3 yesterday and what I've posted is 8-6 - I tracked another 7 games that I didn't post that went 7-0
so, it's a total of 15-6
but I'm not sure it's a winning strategy and I don't wanna keep posting until I'm pretty sure it has value
I'm going to keep tracking until I have done 100 games - a few more weeks
if I believe it truly has value I will report back
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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July 29th, 2024 at 11:57:23 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
the MLB o/u strategy that I'm using went 4-3 yesterday and what I've posted is 8-6 - I tracked another 7 games that I didn't post that went 7-0
so, it's a total of 15-6
but I'm not sure it's a winning strategy and I don't wanna keep posting until I'm pretty sure it has value
I'm going to keep tracking until I have done 100 games - a few more weeks
if I believe it truly has value I will report back
.
link to original post



Keep up the good work.

Today MGM has Skenes/Wheeler to each throw at least 7 K’s at +210. Last 3 games for Skenes 8/11/8. For Wheeler 7/7/7.
Seems like +210 is more than fair. Skenes should make that number 80+% of the time. And Wheeler 50+ % of the time.
Last edited by: SOOPOO on Jul 29, 2024
SOOPOO
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August 2nd, 2024 at 2:44:06 PM permalink
Lucky find today! Have 3 leg parlay boosted to pay around 13-1. Last leg needed is Yankees tonight. They are favorites. As I often do, I mini hedge with small - EV bets on the 4 other sites.
Well….. Yankees were -152 on the site I had them parlayed, but the Blue Jays were +158 on the site I was going to hedge. I kept betting on the +158 site, then matching on the -152 site. After 4 matching pairs the -152 turned to -170, ending the fun. I love the free money (just a few dollars) and I like giving the sites these (what appears to them to be) -EV bets.
SOOPOO
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August 3rd, 2024 at 4:46:57 PM permalink
Best offer just disappeared sadly. Bet $10 on a soccer parlay and get a 100% profit boost on any $25 bet. Overall probably worth $15 a day for the past year or so.

I’ve enjoyed looking at past ‘matchups’ between pitchers and specific batters. But the juice on O/U hit totals is exorbitant. Like -185/+140. But just found bets just picking which of two hitters get more hits. Tie is no bet, which will of course happen quite often. So Arenado and Guerrero both were around .500 against the pitchers they were facing, and needing MLB bet for a parlay, took them to outhit specific player on the opposing team. The juice was only the regular -110/-110. Both had multiple hit games. $$$

Betting against White Sox has also been lucrative. I feel like I’m a really long ‘banker’ run!
SOOPOO
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August 8th, 2024 at 6:46:31 AM permalink
Today MGM offers boost on player HR. Got Judge at +287.
BetRivers has their No homer line on Judge at -240. Free money. I made $1 on last men’s USA BBall game. Going for another $1 today. Jokic is best player in the world. USA has around 10 of the top 20. Next best Serbia player I don’t think cracks top 100.

I have a great pre tourney bet on France to specifically win women’s silver medal. They need to win one game then get slaughtered by USA in gold medal game.

Another good one is USA women win gold in Soccer and Basketball, and men in Basketball. Got good odds as USA women were + odds alone to win gold. They are favorites now.

My bad pick was Canada men to get silver. I thought they were the only team good enough to give the USA a game.
SOOPOO
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August 9th, 2024 at 7:43:12 AM permalink
Todays free money is Judge HR at +385, no HR at -240.
Also Spain +123 to win soccer gold. France at -113.

My bridge jumper bet for today is USA women’s basketball.
SOOPOO
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August 10th, 2024 at 8:39:23 AM permalink
Between MGM and BetRivers offers will win around $10 on Belgium/ Germany o/u. Unless final total exactly 148 and I win a few hundred.

I made around 50 bets yesterday. Ranging from $1 to $50. Total for the day was ….. net zero! Didn’t win or lose a dollar!

My likely -EV bet of the day is Canning over 3.5 K’s. His last 3 outings have been 8/6/6 K’s. I don’t understand the line of 3.5.
Going back 15 games he’s averaging 4.5. When something looks too good to be true….
DRich
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August 10th, 2024 at 9:16:57 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



My likely -EV bet of the day is Canning over 3.5 K’s. His last 3 outings have been 8/6/6 K’s. I don’t understand the line of 3.5.
Going back 15 games he’s averaging 4.5. When something looks too good to be true….
link to original post



That 3.5 does seem low as Washington seems to strike out a lot from what I have seen. If he can go 5 innings you have a great chance to win that.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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August 10th, 2024 at 6:00:28 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO



My likely -EV bet of the day is Canning over 3.5 K’s. His last 3 outings have been 8/6/6 K’s. I don’t understand the line of 3.5.
Going back 15 games he’s averaging 4.5. When something looks too good to be true….
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That 3.5 does seem low as Washington seems to strike out a lot from what I have seen. If he can go 5 innings you have a great chance to win that.
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He went SEVEN innings. And had as many strikeouts as you did….

4 leg parlay live needing White Sox to lose. Tied in the 5th.

I think France for men’s BBall gold for 2028 is a good futures bet. Wemby is the real deal. And there are the top two players in this draft that will be seasoned pros by 2028. No, I’m not really making that bet.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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August 11th, 2024 at 4:43:20 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



My likely -EV bet of the day is Canning over 3.5 K’s. His last 3 outings have been 8/6/6 K’s. I don’t understand the line of 3.5.
Going back 15 games he’s averaging 4.5. WHEN SOMETHING LOOKS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE….

he went SEVEN innings. And had as many strikeouts as you did...


yes, you called that one
somebody knew something
I wonder what - that he had a sore arm or something like that
it would be fascinating to know how that line arrived at what it was
but I guess there's no way to find out

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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August 11th, 2024 at 5:10:01 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO



My likely -EV bet of the day is Canning over 3.5 K’s. His last 3 outings have been 8/6/6 K’s. I don’t understand the line of 3.5.
Going back 15 games he’s averaging 4.5. WHEN SOMETHING LOOKS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE….

he went SEVEN innings. And had as many strikeouts as you did...


yes, you called that one
somebody knew something
I wonder what - that he had a sore arm or something like that
it would be fascinating to know how that line arrived at what it was
but I guess there's no way to find out

.
link to original post



Who knows!?! But he doesn’t pitch 7 innings with a sore arm.

Moving on….. FanDuel has USA -14.5. BetRivers France +16. With boost on FD. So either win a pittance, or win it all on exactly 15. Win 1/2 on exactly 16.

I love Mariners over Mets tonight. Severino has given up 21 hits and 12 runs over his last 3 starts totaling 13 innings. Only -130. So going Mariners/over 7.5. I’m feeling 6-2.
DRich
DRich
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August 11th, 2024 at 5:37:32 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


He went SEVEN innings. And had as many strikeouts as you did….



I don't know about that, you didn't see me hitting on the coeds at the bar last night.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ChicagoSkinny
ChicagoSkinny
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August 11th, 2024 at 2:33:03 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO



My likely -EV bet of the day is Canning over 3.5 K’s. His last 3 outings have been 8/6/6 K’s. I don’t understand the line of 3.5.
Going back 15 games he’s averaging 4.5. When something looks too good to be true….
link to original post



I think France for men’s BBall gold for 2028 is a good futures bet. Wemby is the real deal. And there are the top two players in this draft that will be seasoned pros by 2028. No, I’m not really making that bet.
link to original post



Before the Canada game, I bet France +5000 to win THIS year's gold. The 4th quarter of Serbia-USA was devastating to say the least. Should have just bet USA live ML vs Serbia at the start of the 4th. 🤦‍♂️
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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August 12th, 2024 at 4:03:08 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO



My likely -EV bet of the day is Canning over 3.5 K’s. His last 3 outings have been 8/6/6 K’s. I don’t understand the line of 3.5.
Going back 15 games he’s averaging 4.5. WHEN SOMETHING LOOKS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE….

he went SEVEN innings. And had as many strikeouts as you did...


yes, you called that one
somebody knew something
I wonder what - that he had a sore arm or something like that
it would be fascinating to know how that line arrived at what it was
but I guess there's no way to find out

.
link to original post



Who knows!?! But he doesn’t pitch 7 innings with a sore arm.

Moving on….. FanDuel has USA -14.5. BetRivers France +16. With boost on FD. So either win a pittance, or win it all on exactly 15. Win 1/2 on exactly 16.

I love Mariners over Mets tonight. Severino has given up 21 hits and 12 runs over his last 3 starts totaling 13 innings. Only -130. So going Mariners/over 7.5. I’m feeling 6-2.
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General concept correct. Severino gave up 4 runs in 5 innings. Mariners piled on weak Mets bullpen. Blowout win. Parlay wins. Both USA men and women win but not close to covering. Made for good TV. I love my France Silver bets. And USA winning men’s BBALL, and women’s soccer and bball. Overall probably broke even on Olympics, (really bad in tennis), but will be getting $120 ish free bet from BetRivers to makeup for many of my -EV bets there.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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August 12th, 2024 at 4:35:53 AM permalink
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MLB o/u trend following system - almost 100 picks (pushes not considered) - from July 26 thru yesterday

58-40 - 59.6% winners - about 12.7% r.o.i.

the pick is when covers.com (click matchup and then trends) has both teams on the Game Total over trend - then the pick is over - or both on the Game Total Under trend and then the pick is under

covers is somewhat subjective in posting this trend - sometimes all games and sometimes just home or away
when I first saw this I didn't believe it would win because it doesn't consider the current pitchers which is so critical to the o/u
but I decided to track it anyway, and it did win and kept on winning
so, I can't explain why the non consideration of current pitchers didn't cause the picks to be nothing other than random
but does it matter what I can or cannot explain if it's a winner____?

there is some possibility that the good results were due to chance - but I don't think so

I will continue tracking until the end of the season and I will post those results

I make no claim to have made big bucks on this - I bet very seldom now - I just enjoy tracking trends with no handicapping such as this

very few of the trends I track are winners - most of them are worthless

I would like to see comments on this


https://www.covers.com/sports/mlb/matchups?selectedDate=2024-08-12

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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August 12th, 2024 at 4:46:00 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
MLB o/u trend following system - almost 100 picks (pushes not considered) - from July 26 thru yesterday

58-40 - 59.6% winners - about 12.7% r.o.i.

Interesting.

100 trials is just not enough to draw conclusions no matter how well it goes. It strikes me also that 'it can't be that easy'

Quote:

the pick is when covers.com (click matchup and then trends) has both teams on the Game Total over trend - then the pick is over - or both on the Game Total Under trend and then the pick is under

'trends' means how much money is on the side of the bet?

Quote:

covers is somewhat subjective in posting this trend - sometimes all games and sometimes just home or away
when I first saw this I didn't believe it would win because it doesn't consider the current pitchers which is so critical to the o/u
but I decided to track it anyway, and it did win and kept on winning
so, I can't explain why the non consideration of current pitchers didn't cause the picks to be nothing other than random
but does it matter what I can or cannot explain if it's a winner____?

there is some possibility that the good results were due to chance - but I don't think so

I will continue tracking until the end of the season and I will post those results

I make no claim to have made big bucks on this - I bet very seldom now - I just enjoy tracking trends with no handicapping such as this

very few of the trends I track are winners - most of them are worthless

I would like to see comments on this


https://www.covers.com/sports/mlb/matchups?selectedDate=2024-08-12

.
link to original post

keep up the good work
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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odiousgambit
August 12th, 2024 at 4:53:01 AM permalink
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trend is not the amount of money bet -

it is for example today - "the Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games at home - +7.85 units - 22% r.o.i."

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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August 13th, 2024 at 1:45:38 PM permalink
I’m doing pretty poorly this month. Might even be down!

For those that want to fade me….. I LOVE White Sox +2.5 runs at +100, so underdog as Yanks -2.5 is -120. The White Sox pitcher has had 3 good outings in a row, while the Yankees pitcher 3 bad outings in a row. The Yankees used a lot of bullpen resources last night in their abysmal blowout loss.
Of course, the White Sox perhaps being the worst team in baseball history doesn’t breed confidence, but I’m going Sox +2.5 in a couple of parlays. I even have them winning outright and under total in a longshot parlay.

Also like Mets and Padres.

Variance…. shot 49 front 9….. probably 5 worse than average for me…. 40 back 9….. 4 better than average. Had multiple bets going…. Won!!! ($0.25).
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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August 13th, 2024 at 2:02:41 PM permalink
I guess you've noticed that the DK deal for the boost on a player hitting a HR yes/no has been torpedoed ... it's no longer a simple over/under 0.5 and this gives them the opportunity to give bad odds. I assume you see the same offer I do. I think Judge was killing them

I'm ashamed to say I bet under the old deal on Judge HR yes/no without checking first to see if the game would get rained out. Not once but twice I did that. Time to wear the dunce hat.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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August 13th, 2024 at 5:23:16 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I guess you've noticed that the DK deal for the boost on a player hitting a HR yes/no has been torpedoed ... it's no longer a simple over/under 0.5 and this gives them the opportunity to give bad odds. I assume you see the same offer I do. I think Judge was killing them

I'm ashamed to say I bet under the old deal on Judge HR yes/no without checking first to see if the game would get rained out. Not once but twice I did that. Time to wear the dunce hat.
link to original post



I check 4 other sites before pulling the trigger on the HR offer. I did go with Judge today (just watched him strikeout). I also have Seager (0 for 2 so far) and Verdugo. Mets being killed.

Lucky for me market was up around 500 times what I’m losing betting today!

I do still have my White Sox bets….
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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August 15th, 2024 at 6:57:29 AM permalink
Finally had a good night. Judge boosted HR bet. And also Soto boosted HR bet. Soto was over 4-1 which was juicy.

It’s interesting how one site might suck on SGP’s, but be better on golf. Another might suck on HR odds, but take less juice on tennis.

Needed at big underdog today. So taking a flyer on Nationals/under. Boosted got it up to +900 or so. (Need Nats to score at least 3 as well).

White Sox have an interim manager. Intentionally walked Soto to get to …. Aaron Judge! I think I fire him on the spot. I said so before….. Judge homered….
These guys just overthink this ‘lefty/righties’ stuff.
billryan
billryan
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August 15th, 2024 at 7:02:02 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Finally had a good night. Judge boosted HR bet. And also Soto boosted HR bet. Soto was over 4-1 which was juicy.

It’s interesting how one site might suck on SGP’s, but be better on golf. Another might suck on HR odds, but take less juice on tennis.

Needed at big underdog today. So taking a flyer on Nationals/under. Boosted got it up to +900 or so. (Need Nats to score at least 3 as well).

White Sox has an interim manager. Intentionally walked Soto to get to …. Aaron Judge! I think I fire him on the spot. I said so before….. Judge homered….
These guys just overthink this ‘lefty/righties’ stuff.
link to original post



Do you pitch to the guy with four home runs and two doubles in the last two games or walk him to get to Judge? There is no right answer, although I imagine Sizemore won't try that experiment again.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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August 15th, 2024 at 7:20:30 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: SOOPOO

Finally had a good night. Judge boosted HR bet. And also Soto boosted HR bet. Soto was over 4-1 which was juicy.

It’s interesting how one site might suck on SGP’s, but be better on golf. Another might suck on HR odds, but take less juice on tennis.

Needed at big underdog today. So taking a flyer on Nationals/under. Boosted got it up to +900 or so. (Need Nats to score at least 3 as well).

White Sox has an interim manager. Intentionally walked Soto to get to …. Aaron Judge! I think I fire him on the spot. I said so before….. Judge homered….
These guys just overthink this ‘lefty/righties’ stuff.
link to original post



Do you pitch to the guy with four home runs and two doubles in the last two games or walk him to get to Judge? There is no right answer, although I imagine Sizemore won't try that experiment again.
link to original post



I pitch to Soto. But of course not happily! Judge was hot as well, just walks, singles, and doubles.

Soto making himself a lot of $$$$$$ for next contract!
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