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GenoDRPh
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May 1st, 2024 at 7:53:54 AM permalink
Celtics-Miami. Celtics up 3-1 in the playoff series. Elimination game.
GenoDRPh
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May 1st, 2024 at 7:53:54 AM permalink
.....
odiousgambit
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ChallengedMilly
May 1st, 2024 at 8:32:13 AM permalink
Quote: ChallengedMilly

Free $50 added to my $5 bet today and tomorrow for any sport that caesars follows. Anyone have a particularly juicy game or player to bet on? One high vol pick and one low vol pick?
link to original post

Generally I respect the oddsmakers as smarter than me

the thing is, for a freeroll, the math says you don't want favorites. You couldn't pick a better case of higher risk, higher reward than you get with a freeroll in gambling... more true saying than it is with picking stocks. But it means you are picking something that is more likely to lose than to win. In order to handle that emotionally, personally I have found I have to set a limit, and +200 to +300 fits me fairly well. +400 starts to beat me up.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ChallengedMilly
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May 1st, 2024 at 9:40:19 AM permalink
Will do, you see anything out there for later today that matches those more extreme odds? Guess I'll do half on Celtics and half on something higher vol.
unJon
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May 1st, 2024 at 10:01:01 AM permalink
Quote: ChallengedMilly

Will do, you see anything out there for later today that matches those more extreme odds? Guess I'll do half on Celtics and half on something higher vol.
link to original post



No lean, but money line on Bucks tomorrow satisfies. If you want to go very extreme could money line Heat tonight. Good luck.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SOOPOO
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May 1st, 2024 at 4:20:05 PM permalink
I’m not getting whatever Caesars offer you are. Are you saying, ‘bet $5, and we add $50 to make it a $55 bet’?

If so, I agree with getting to at least +200.

Word of caution. Make sure you pick an event that will have a decision. Don’t pick Golden Knights +1 as that might be a ‘no result’ if they lose by exactly 1. Sometimes these bonus bets disappear after such a result.

I ‘think’ I have a +EV bet on FD tonight. Doncic 30/Mavs -2.5 parlayed at +180. I think +140 would be the ‘fair’ line. That’s of course two VERY correlated results.

Final Florida tally. Only +$90. But + is +! Agree with DRich that there are numerous +EV offers.
DRich
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May 2nd, 2024 at 5:26:35 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


Final Florida tally. Only +$90. But + is +! Agree with DRich that there are numerous +EV offers.



Don't listen to me, I went 0-3 yesterday.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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May 2nd, 2024 at 5:32:12 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I’m not getting whatever Caesars offer you are. Are you saying, ‘bet $5, and we add $50 to make it a $55 bet’?

If so, I agree with getting to at least +200.

Word of caution. Make sure you pick an event that will have a decision. Don’t pick Golden Knights +1 as that might be a ‘no result’ if they lose by exactly 1. Sometimes these bonus bets disappear after such a result.

I ‘think’ I have a +EV bet on FD tonight. Doncic 30/Mavs -2.5 parlayed at +180. I think +140 would be the ‘fair’ line. That’s of course two VERY correlated results.

Final Florida tally. Only +$90. But + is +! Agree with DRich that there are numerous +EV offers.
link to original post



Easy win. Doncic 35 despite not playing second half of 4th quarter due to Mavs rout of Clippers.

Good advice by me on not taking VGK +1!

Did VERY WELL yesterday. Had VGK +1.5 last leg of parlay. Got another +EV bet on Stars to win in regulation! Both hit.
Similar in Oilers game. Looked like Oilers were going to win by two but very late goal by Kings made it one goal game.

Two open parlays needing Nuggets to win tonight. Probably will hedge a bit taking TWolves + points.
SOOPOO
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May 4th, 2024 at 2:59:52 PM permalink
Today two +EV bets (I think!). Both Jokic and Edwards to score 25 at plus 150. Feels like it should be around +100. FD
Murray and Edwards to combine for 50 at +125. DK. Should be around -105.
Unless books know something about Edwards that I don’t?

Two leftover parlays only needing Nuggets moneyline. I’ve put in a few Twolves +4.5 as hedges.

In amongst the stupidest discussion of online sports betting…. The NBA wants sportsbooks not to accept bets on players who are on ‘two way’ contracts! You know, because those are players who are ripe to fix games. As opposed to say an MLS soccer player making 1/3 of what that NBA player is making. Or even, say, A STARTING STAR WNBA player!

I watched parts of Yankee game. The home plate umpire was flat out incompetent. It favored the Yankees, but seemed more like just incompetence than game fixing. It got so he was calling anything near the plate against the Tigers a strike. It really started after he made a single bad call against the Yankees and threw Aaron Judge out of the game for the mildest of arguments.
The Yankees announcer said this …. ‘If they are going to call that low and outside pitch a strike the batters shouldn’t bother to even come to the plate!’
SOOPOO
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odiousgambit
May 6th, 2024 at 10:14:06 AM permalink
So I’ve been doing GREAT recently taking advantage of ‘odds surges’ in mostly PGA and NASCAR races. As opposed to a standard 25% profit boost, the books have been giving a ‘surge’ of +300 or +400 on your bet. So I’ve been taking favorites and getting let’s say +800 on Scott Scheffler who was +400. And Kyle Larson got +650 when he was +350. (Larson won by an INCH yesterday!). If you ‘surge’ a longshot from +8000 to +8300 it is close to worthless. So…. surge favorites, profit boost longshots!

Today got two (what I thought were!) juicy 100% profit boosts for NBA same game parlays. Easy to make very +EV. Except I’m now limited to a $5 bet on each! Oh well…..

So have open 4 leg parlay that hits if Pacers +6.5 wins. Hedged somewhat with Knicks -5.5. SOOPOO can retire if Knicks win by 6!
Another open 4 leg parlay needs Man U to either win or draw. Hedged with Crystal Palace to either win or draw. Go TIE!
lilredrooster
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May 7th, 2024 at 5:22:04 AM permalink
.
I found this site - "Pickwise" that gives free "expert" MLB picks
I've tracked them for 3 days and they've totally crushed - they're 11-3 and not all faves - yes, I know that means nothing
and yes, I'm also aware that the free picks of so called "experts" usually have little value
but hey, there could be some exceptions - they do give excellent reasoning for their picks
I'll post their picks until I'm convinced that their picks don't have any value - if that is what happens

Pickwise picks for today:


Tigers +108 over Guardians

Braves/Royals under 8.5 -105

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
terapined
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May 7th, 2024 at 7:05:37 AM permalink
Ryan Garcia pulled off the greatest AP move ever
He acts crazy before the fight
He comes into the fight juiced on PED's
He comes into the fight overweight. Title not on the line but bets still on the line. Fighters have a huge advantage training if you are not trying to make the weight
He bets 2 million on himself as the underdog and cleans up at the casino
Well played Ryan
When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums
GenoDRPh
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May 7th, 2024 at 8:11:29 AM permalink
Quote: terapined

Ryan Garcia pulled off the greatest AP move ever
He acts crazy before the fight
He comes into the fight juiced on PED's
He comes into the fight overweight. Title not on the line but bets still on the line. Fighters have a huge advantage training if you are not trying to make the weight
He bets 2 million on himself as the underdog and cleans up at the casino
Well played Ryan
link to original post



Is it still an AP move since he (a) agreed to pay Devin Haney $1.5 million for being overweight ($500k for each pound) in addition to the $600K purse sanction, the fight most likely will be ruled a "no contest" due to PEDs and he might get suspended?
terapined
terapined
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May 7th, 2024 at 8:27:58 AM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh

Quote: terapined

Ryan Garcia pulled off the greatest AP move ever
He acts crazy before the fight
He comes into the fight juiced on PED's
He comes into the fight overweight. Title not on the line but bets still on the line. Fighters have a huge advantage training if you are not trying to make the weight
He bets 2 million on himself as the underdog and cleans up at the casino
Well played Ryan
link to original post



Is it still an AP move since he (a) agreed to pay Devin Haney $1.5 million for being overweight ($500k for each pound) in addition to the $600K purse sanction, the fight most likely will be ruled a "no contest" due to PEDs and he might get suspended?
link to original post


I think this was a total setup
Garcia lost his previous fight by taking a knee
Taking a knee !!!!!!!!!!
I kid you not
He said he couldn't go on due to a body shot
Too proud to pretend a KO?
Took a knee instead
I've never seen a fighter take a knee and lose staying on the knee.
This fight smells

Casino bets all resolved
He still collected from the casino supposedly

Here is the taking the knee fight
Davis was shocked he won
He couldn't belive the fight was over
When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums
lilredrooster
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May 7th, 2024 at 10:04:15 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
I found this site - "Pickwise" that gives free "expert" MLB picks
I've tracked them for 3 days and they've totally crushed - they're 11-3 and not all faves - yes, I know that means nothing
and yes, I'm also aware that the free picks of so called "experts" usually have little value
but hey, there could be some exceptions - they do give excellent reasoning for their picks
I'll post their picks until I'm convinced that their picks don't have any value - if that is what happens

Pickwise picks for today:


Tigers +108 over Guardians

Brewers/Royals under 8.5 -105



Pickwise has a lot more picks for today:______________I'm sure they did on the previous 3 days that I tracked them but I only looked at it in the early a.m. so that's all I saw

Diamondbacks - 126 over Reds

BlueJay/Phillies under 8 -108

Astros even money over Yankees

Astros/Yankees under 8 even money

Red Sox/Braves under 8.5 -102

Padres/Cubs under 9 -122

Giants/Rockies under 10.5 -122

Dodgers -1.5 -154 over Marlins


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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 7, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
GenoDRPh
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May 7th, 2024 at 5:15:13 PM permalink
Taking a knee is probably the prefered way of surrendering during a fight. There have been instances where a fighter wishes to surrender and he walks backwards with his hands up and gets clobbered because he's still on his feet and the ref hadn't stopped the fight.

If the fight is declared a no contest due to the drug test, does the sportsbook get their payouts back, or do they just take their lumps and move on?
SOOPOO
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May 7th, 2024 at 7:16:48 PM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh

Taking a knee is probably the prefered way of surrendering during a fight. There have been instances where a fighter wishes to surrender and he walks backwards with his hands up and gets clobbered because he's still on his feet and the ref hadn't stopped the fight.

If the fight is declared a no contest due to the drug test, does the sportsbook get their payouts back, or do they just take their lumps and move on?
link to original post



99% sure books consider the game over and do not count later reversals. If anyone knows of an exception I’d be interested to hear the details.

Doncic/SGA to each score 25 at even money. Must be +EV. Can’t even find a market on Doncic under 24.5. And SGA o/u is around 30.
lilredrooster
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May 8th, 2024 at 4:41:10 AM permalink
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Pickwise went 7-4 yesterday
I have now tracked them going 18-7 with their MLB picks
I'm not going to figure out exactly what the r.o.i. is but the odds they get averages out to be about -125 so they are way, way, ahead since I've been tracking

they don't pick extreme faves such as -180 - at least not that I've seen so far

I indicated I was going to post their picks but I changed my mind - too much work - anybody who wants to can follow them at the link

they probably have all their games up around 11:00

I will track them and report after I have tracked 100 of their picks


https://www.pickswise.com/mlb/picks/


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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 8, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
odiousgambit
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May 10th, 2024 at 6:14:29 AM permalink
My good luck with the DK threesday offers is continuing, I'm marveling at it

that you get the bonus whether you win or lose the initial ... I just can't say no, even if my small bankroll had been wiped out

now I am back to worrying about how and when they report to the IRS
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
lilredrooster
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May 10th, 2024 at 8:36:28 AM permalink
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quite interesting and eye opening and even humorous
I just looked thru the records for the last 6 months for all of the touts who sell picks on the linked site
of the 8 who are named only 2 had won - and both of them had only won a tiny % - less than 1% of their total action
the other 6 all lost and most of them got creamed

but they all do have fabulous resumes

is it really that hard to get an edge betting sports (without bonuses, boosts and free play)___________?

I think the answer is probably yes


https://www.oskeimsportspicks.com/handicappers/rocky-atkinson/

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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May 10th, 2024 at 12:25:16 PM permalink
Pretty sure no IRS reporting unless to hit a very long shot that generated a W-2 G. Also would not be surprised if that changes.

As far as the 8 touts respective records, it’s gotta be real difficult to beat a ‘regular’ -110 line consistently. For all my chatter I doubt I’d do better than maybe 50.5%. Which loses money. I probably can get average odds down to -107 or so by looking at multiple sites. But I have no illusions that I’d be a winner.
terapined
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May 10th, 2024 at 12:52:50 PM permalink
Denver
Last years NBA Champs on the ropes
Is it all over after 2 beat downs
Will they show up or go down 3 to 0
How the hell do I know
No bets lol
But I will be watching
Leaning towards an embarrassing beat down tonight
When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums
odiousgambit
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May 10th, 2024 at 1:07:11 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Pretty sure no IRS reporting unless to hit a very long shot that generated a W-2 G. Also would not be surprised if that changes.

link to original post

Problems:

t&cs don't clarify the circumstances under which they might issue a W2G

as far as a 1099, BetMGM says you might get a "1099-Misc [which] may be issued by Us by January 31 following the year of the receipt of a prize consisting of cash or merchandise for which a 12 month accumulated value of six hundred US dollars" [see below]That word 'accumulated' has really bothered me, and they might feel free to report it without subtracting losses, who knows? Somewhere upthread Mental says that covers special prizes only, not wins from betting.

I know you have had no problem. I worry that Virginia may be different.

OK I should probably just keep plunging ahead. If I pay taxes, I pay taxes.

10.5 Your acceptance of these Agreements serves as acknowledgement that the Form 1099-Misc may be issued by Us by January 31 following the year of the receipt of a prize consisting of cash or merchandise for which a 12 month accumulated value of six hundred US dollars ($600) or more won by using the Services are subject to the IRS regulations.

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DRich
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odiousgambit
May 10th, 2024 at 1:34:49 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

[

as far as a 1099, BetMGM says you might get a "1099-Misc [which] may be issued by Us by January 31 following the year of the receipt of a prize consisting of cash or merchandise for which a 12 month accumulated value of six hundred US dollars" [see below]That word 'accumulated' has really bothered me, and they might feel free to report it without subtracting losses, who knows?



That is an IRS rule to report 1099's if the accumulated total for a year is over $600. Generally it is not applied to bets but to winnings of promotions. In the casino business we pretty much went away from giving small cash prizes for promos because we would have to track them all year for all patrons and report if they went over $600 cumulative,. that is when we started offering free play instead of cash because that did not apply to 1099's,
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
TaxrBux
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May 11th, 2024 at 11:04:00 AM permalink
Is anyone having success with the Draft Kings early win promo? It seems like betting a road dog facing a pitcher who has a tendency to give up runs early and then settle down would be ideal, but that would require knowledge or research. I prefer purely mechanical +EV plays.
SOOPOO
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May 11th, 2024 at 11:40:30 AM permalink
Quote: TaxrBux

Is anyone having success with the Draft Kings early win promo? It seems like betting a road dog facing a pitcher who has a tendency to give up runs early and then settle down would be ideal, but that would require knowledge or research. I prefer purely mechanical +EV plays.
link to original post



I’ve just been taking biggest road underdog. Pretty sure it is mildly +EV. I’m limited to $10 bet so I’m not going to do any actual thinking to make a selection!
I’m certainly up some $$ since I started doing it.
TaxrBux
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May 13th, 2024 at 8:02:50 AM permalink
BetMGM has the Bruins-Panthers futures at:

FLA 4-2 +350
FLA 4-3 +750
BOS 4-3 +1100

for a -57% vig.

Bruins are +180 to win game 6 on Draft Kings.

I put $100 on FLA 4-2 and $160 on the Bruins game 6, to lock in $188 in profit. Am I missing something here? Will MGM say this is a mistake? Draft Kings has similar lines on the series exact result, so maybe I am missing something.
lilredrooster
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May 13th, 2024 at 8:23:21 AM permalink
Quote: TaxrBux

BetMGM has the Bruins-Panthers futures at:

FLA 4-2 +350
FLA 4-3 +750
BOS 4-3 +1100

for a -57% vig.

Bruins are +180 to win game 6 on Draft Kings.

I put $100 on FLA 4-2 and $160 on the Bruins game 6, to lock in $188 in profit. Am I missing something here? Will MGM say this is a mistake? Draft Kings has similar lines on the series exact result, so maybe I am missing something.
link to original post


the Panthers are up 3-1 in the series

covers.com has them at -205 to win game 5 tomorrow which would win them the series going 4-1

what happens to your bets if FLA wins game 5 and there is no sixth game___________?

if that happens your bet on FLA 4-2 to win the series would lose

not sure about your bet on the Bruins to win game 6 if there is no game 6

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
TaxrBux
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May 13th, 2024 at 8:51:10 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster


the Panthers are up 3-1 in the series

has them at -205 to win game 5 tomorrow which would win them the series going 4-1

what happens to your bets if FLA wins game 5 and there is no sixth game___________?

if that happens your bet on FLA 4-2 to win the series would lose

not sure about your bet on the Bruins to win game 6 if there is no game 6

.
link to original post



Yep, lol, going to cancel those bets. The Bruins bet is on Tuesday's game, which is actually game 5. So I guess 4-1 series result is built into the Panthers odds on game 5, which is -210, for a vig of 10%, which makes a lot more sense. Thanks!
SOOPOO
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May 13th, 2024 at 4:28:51 PM permalink
Quote: TaxrBux

Quote: lilredrooster


the Panthers are up 3-1 in the series

has them at -205 to win game 5 tomorrow which would win them the series going 4-1

what happens to your bets if FLA wins game 5 and there is no sixth game___________?

if that happens your bet on FLA 4-2 to win the series would lose

not sure about your bet on the Bruins to win game 6 if there is no game 6

.
link to original post



Yep, lol, going to cancel those bets. The Bruins bet is on Tuesday's game, which is actually game 5. So I guess 4-1 series result is built into the Panthers odds on game 5, which is -210, for a vig of 10%, which makes a lot more sense. Thanks!
link to original post



How are you able to ‘cancel’ a bet?
The ‘early cash out’ feature takes 10% or so right away.

My best bet today is Cubs/ Under 8 parlay. Pitcher Iminaga has been unbelievable.
I got lucky in that I got a bunch of bets on Celtics before Cavs had Mitchell scratched. Celts up 3 But hard for me to see them not winning by double digits.
lilredrooster
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May 15th, 2024 at 4:34:47 AM permalink
.
earlier I posted that I would track 100 games of Pickswise - I've now tracked 76 picks - I've seen enough
they went 40-36 almost always picking the fave at odds averaging about -125
they're well down

conclusion - their picks have no value______________surprise, surprise, surprise

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
TaxrBux
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May 15th, 2024 at 1:04:01 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: TaxrBux

Quote: lilredrooster


the Panthers are up 3-1 in the series

has them at -205 to win game 5 tomorrow which would win them the series going 4-1

what happens to your bets if FLA wins game 5 and there is no sixth game___________?

if that happens your bet on FLA 4-2 to win the series would lose

not sure about your bet on the Bruins to win game 6 if there is no game 6

.
link to original post



Yep, lol, going to cancel those bets. The Bruins bet is on Tuesday's game, which is actually game 5. So I guess 4-1 series result is built into the Panthers odds on game 5, which is -210, for a vig of 10%, which makes a lot more sense. Thanks!
link to original post



How are you able to ‘cancel’ a bet?
The ‘early cash out’ feature takes 10% or so right away.

link to original post



Yep, I guess I should say "salvage what I can from this mistake." I did cash out the Bruins bet for -$16. I was unable to cash out the series bet on BetMGM, so I bet $165 on Florida for -$165. If that had won, the net would have been -$41. Now I have $195 on Boston +130 in the real game 6, and still have the $100 on Panthers 4-2 series exact outcome +350, so the overall outcome will be -$26-28. I don't like risking money on the outcome of games (props, etc.) so this salvage is better for me than sweating out actual results. I track it as an error, and move on.
SOOPOO
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May 15th, 2024 at 2:36:21 PM permalink
Bad beat of the day for me…. 6 leg soccer parlay, last leg needs Chelsea to shutout Brighton. Brighton scores EIGHT minutes into overtime…. Was 20-1 that I thought I had…..

Yesterday was dismal and this afternoons baseball picks have continued my ‘dismality’.

TaxR, when I make a mistake like you did, I bite my lip and see what happens. Locking in a small loss ‘seems’ wrong, while I have no problem hedging to guarantee a small win.

Since I have no bankroll worries I shouldn’t hedge….
SOOPOO
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May 17th, 2024 at 1:20:44 PM permalink
Free $250 today. BetMGM gives you $750 for a $500 deposit. 1X playthrough on the entire $750. One week to accomplish playthrough.

Makes up for my recent string of bad picks!

My (probably -EV) pick today starts with Halliburton over 8.5 assists. It’s a do or die game for Pacers so I think the stars will get more playing time than a ‘regular’ game. I got some action on him to get a double double.
And my longest longshot includes a triple double for Josh Hart. If a close game he might get all 48 minutes. I’m getting over 20-1.
ThatDonGuy
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May 18th, 2024 at 10:24:43 AM permalink
The NCAA is asking states to outlaw prop bets on specific athletes in college sports. Apparently, too many of them are being harassed online by losing bettors.

While I think this is a good idea, I don't see the harassment stopping; they are going to be blamed when team bets lose as well. What's worse is, it happens regardless of what the player does; if you have the ball in the closing seconds of a basketball game where you are way ahead but behind the spread by 1, do you just hold onto the ball so as not to rub it in, and have all of the people who bet on your team at your throat, or do you make the dunk, and have everybody who bet on your opponent use "lack of sportsmanship" for blaming you for their loss?
GenoDRPh
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May 18th, 2024 at 11:49:41 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

The NCAA is asking states to outlaw prop bets on specific athletes in college sports. Apparently, too many of them are being harassed online by losing bettors.

While I think this is a good idea, I don't see the harassment stopping; they are going to be blamed when team bets lose as well. What's worse is, it happens regardless of what the player does; if you have the ball in the closing seconds of a basketball game where you are way ahead but behind the spread by 1, do you just hold onto the ball so as not to rub it in, and have all of the people who bet on your team at your throat, or do you make the dunk, and have everybody who bet on your opponent use "lack of sportsmanship" for blaming you for their loss?
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This exact scenario is part of the reason why Massachusetts, when they leglaized sports betting, banned betting on college sports or college players, except in post-season tournaments.
lilredrooster
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May 18th, 2024 at 12:36:30 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

The NCAA is asking states to outlaw prop bets on specific athletes in college sports. Apparently, too many of them are being harassed online by losing bettors.

While I think this is a good idea, I don't see the harassment stopping; they are going to be blamed when team bets lose as well. What's worse is, it happens regardless of what the player does; if you have the ball in the closing seconds of a basketball game where you are way ahead but behind the spread by 1, do you just hold onto the ball so as not to rub it in, and have all of the people who bet on your team at your throat, or do you make the dunk, and have everybody who bet on your opponent use "lack of sportsmanship" for blaming you for their loss?
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I believe the players are much less cognizant and concerned about how their play affects the outcome on the spread on the game than they are of prop bets on individuals
betting ats on college has been around for a very long time and has caused very few problems
but imagine a high scorer seeing that it's -140 for him to get over 22 and +110 for him to get under 22
not only might he be harassed either way - for some there is certainly going to be a temptation to illegally capitalize on this type of wager

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 18, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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May 18th, 2024 at 7:31:16 PM permalink
Interesting occurrence. Had $25 free bet today. Used it on 3 leg same game parlay involving the Braves. Game got rained out. So I figured I’d get another $25 free bet to use. But they just gave me $25 cash. So that’s probably $10 or so better for me. I’m frankly stunned that’s how they handle it. Mmwaching Mavs game now. Great game.
SOOPOO
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May 20th, 2024 at 5:55:47 AM permalink
BetMGM deposit bonus was even better than I originally thought. Only had to bet the bonus amount ($250) and not the deposit amount ($500) to clear it all.

Oh well. My season long Nuggets bet is gone. Season long Oilers bet is at risk tonight.

I’ve been winning a few dollars a week on both DraftKings and FanDuel on their free to play games. Both used to have extremely difficult questions so if you won you’d make ‘real’ money. But they both switched to easy questions (who will be the high scorer tonight?, or which team will win?) so thousands of winners every night. Looks like total around $5 a week. Whoopppee!!!
mcallister3200
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May 22nd, 2024 at 8:12:53 AM permalink
Quote: terapined

North Carolina State
D J Burns Jr
What a player
Built like an offensive lineman
But
Has incredible moves.
Can't wait see him again Saturday


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This guy claims to have lost 45 pounds in less than 7 weeks. If I’m a team that’s thinking of drafting him, I don’t know if I’m thinking more about his potential with quicker feet and better stamina, or if it’s more of a red flag he hasn’t taken his talents seriously until months before the draft.
lilredrooster
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May 30th, 2024 at 4:00:15 AM permalink
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I read on a couple of different sites that MLB underdogs could be a very good bet when playing their same division rivals under certain conditions

but the conditions were restrictive - and meant taking a long time to do a significant tracking

so I decided to track 100 games of all MLB underdogs against their within division rivals because I was curious about it

the results were quite astonishing

I now have 81 games - I don't think I need to go to 100 - I'm convinced - but I will track then next 100 games of the same thing

I have done several of these kinds of trackings - all but one were losers so I didn't post about them - and the one that won was not nearly as impressive as this

I kept waiting for a long losing streak to wipe out the winnings - that never happened

also, quite surprising was how many times the extreme fave - such as -190 got beat - meaning a large win for the dog

if you don't believe the results - I don't blame you - and I invite you to go back over the games at covers.com

I always used the early a.m. line and so many times the fave gets bet down late so if my tracking was close to game time my results prolly would have been even better

an obvious question is whether or not this is an anomaly__________I don't think so______but as I said I will keep tracking for a very long time and I will find out for sure




RESULTS_____________last 81 games______________MLB underdogs against within their same division rivals_________:




43-38__________profit of $1485 based on $100 bets___________R.O.I.__________18%


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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 30, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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May 30th, 2024 at 5:20:06 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
I read on a couple of different sites that MLB underdogs could be a very good bet when playing their same division rivals under certain conditions

but the conditions were restrictive - and meant taking a long time to do a significant tracking

so I decided to track 100 games of all MLB underdogs against their within division rivals because I was curious about it

the results were quite astonishing

I now have 81 games - I don't think I need to go to 100 - I'm convinced - but I will track then next 100 games of the same thing

I have done several of these kinds of trackings - all but one were losers so I didn't post about them - and the one that won was not nearly as impressive as this

I kept waiting for a long losing streak to wipe out the winnings - that never happened

also, quite surprising was how many times the extreme fave - such as -190 got beat - meaning a large win for the dog

if you don't believe the results - I don't blame you - and I invite you to go back over the games at covers.com

I always used the early a.m. line and so many times the fave gets bet down late so if my tracking was close to game time my results prolly would have been even better

an obvious question is whether or not this is an anomaly__________I don't think so______but as I said I will keep tracking for a very long time and I will find out for sure




RESULTS_____________last 81 games______________MLB underdogs against within their same division rivals_________:




43-38__________profit of $1485 based on $100 bets___________R.O.I.__________18%


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Post some of these picks when you figure them out in the morning. I’ll ride with you. I have so many MLB offers I’ve been coin flipping a lot but would use your picks instead of my trusty penny.

I’ve been nailing the French open so far. Parlay picks expecting to get my free bet for losing. But I’ve been winning a bunch of them WAY above expectation. Fewer free bets…. MORE MONEY!

Needed + 400 parlay to use 100 % profit boost. Liked Tatum and Siakam to both get double doubles. Tatum slight favorite, Siakam slight underdog to do so. Parlayed only +340. So as a joke I try to add Siakam over rebounds (7.5) and….. it puts me to +420. I would think that in ALL of Siakam’s career double doubles he had 8 or more rebounds. Not technically impossible for him to get 10 assists, 10 points, and less than 7.5 rebounds but negligible chances.
It hit for +840.
Been betting against Mets daily. It puts food on the table…..
lilredrooster
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May 30th, 2024 at 6:03:22 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


Post some of these picks when you figure them out in the morning.


there is no need for me to post these picks - they're so easy to find - but I'll post just today's since you asked - of course it's too small a sample for the results to be meaningful

the odds change quite often and can differ from one book to another as I'm sure you know - but I don't believe they change enough to have made my results inaccurate


Royals + 110 over Twins

Cubs - 102 over Brewers

Astros +114 over Mariners

Nationals + 164 over Braves


for anybody unsure of who is in which division I've linked the standings which makes it very clear

I've been struggling to try and understand why my results were what they were

The best explanation I can come up with is that the MLB is extremely unpredictable and that unpredictability benefits those who bet on the dogs in this particular situation


https://www.google.com/search?q=mlb+standings&oq=mlb+standings&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i131i433i512j0i433i512j0i131i433i512l2j0i512l3j0i3j0i512.3000j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#sie=lg;/g/11v6fkgxnt;4;/m/09p14;st;fp;1;;;


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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 30, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
TaxrBux
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May 30th, 2024 at 7:24:28 AM permalink
You mentioned conditions or restrictions - can you say what those are?
lilredrooster
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May 30th, 2024 at 7:51:21 AM permalink
Quote: TaxrBux

You mentioned conditions or restrictions - can you say what those are?
link to original post


those restrictions that I saw - I did not use - it would have made the tracking take too long and it would have been a lot harder

I tracked all underdogs the only restriction being that they had to be playing against their rival within their own division

here are 2 links showing MLB dogs being profitable

the first link tracks all divisional underdogs - some 12,000 of them and found them profitable but not nearly as profitable as my tracking

I'm not sure if that is because things have changed favoring the divisional underdogs even more or because my tracking was anomalous

as I posted earlier, I'm going to track the next 100 games involving divisional underdogs, but at this time I believe my tracking accurately reflects their profitability

a possible explanation is the dramatic increase in sports betting due to legalization - and those new to the game are more so betting faves causing the line to be skewed

if my opinion changes, and I find that this first tracking was anomalous I will then post about how my opinion has changed

either way it seems like just about a sure thing that betting on divisional underdogs is a profitable strategy

in the first link the writer shows that the profitability of the bet increases when the totals are larger




https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/mlb-underdogs-undervalued-in-division-rivalries/


https://www.boydsbets.com/betting-underdogs-in-baseball/


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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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June 1st, 2024 at 4:38:25 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.also, quite surprising was how many times the extreme fave - such as -190 got beat - meaning a large win for the dog


yesterday, the Rockies beat the Dodgers 4-1

in the early a.m. yesterday the Rockies were +265 and the Dodgers iirc were something like -360

that's the most extreme fave getting beat that I've seen since I've been tracking - but there are many dogs winning at somewhere around +160

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 1, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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June 3rd, 2024 at 7:39:24 AM permalink
My -EV bet for today. No bonus, profit boost, free play, etc…. Jeff McNeil is 6/7 against Gore. I got -185 for him to get a hit today.

Gotta keep betting against the Fever. They are just a really bad team that can’t use Clark effectively.

I have (20-1) bet on Oilers to win the Cup. Will likely hedge a tad. I’m gutless.

I can’t believe I can still do this. At least the sites have severely clamped down on ‘loyalty points’ I get. One door closes, another opens!
odiousgambit
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June 3rd, 2024 at 8:15:29 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

My -EV bet for today. No bonus, profit boost, free play, etc…. Jeff McNeil is 6/7 against Gore. I got -185 for him to get a hit today.

Gotta keep betting against the Fever. They are just a really bad team that can’t use Clark effectively.

plus, you have to believe the squares are betting heavily on Clark's team, that will have an effect... +EV? Not sure it goes that far. But me too.
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the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
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June 3rd, 2024 at 5:35:58 PM permalink
McNeil not even playing. His sub is 3 for 3 already.

DraftKings still doing the ‘up 2 you win’ promo. Cards were + 155 underdog…. just scored 2 in top of the first. Cha Ching.
DRich
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June 3rd, 2024 at 5:38:21 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

McNeil not even playing. His sub is 3 for 3 already.

DraftKings still doing the ‘up 2 you win’ promo. Cards were + 155 underdog…. just scored 2 in top of the first. Cha Ching.
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Ae you limited on the number of bets you can make on that promo? What is the betting limit?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
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