Sports betting chatter
Quote: odiousgambitummmm, is there a story here?Quote: SOOPOOsince I have no other site, there was no hedge!
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I’m in Florida. Can’t access my NY accounts. Opened a Florida Hard Rock account.
women's championship today 3:00 p.m.
under 160.5 - I counted S.C. going 32- 4 under that total - their last 2 games the totals were 137 and 128_______very tough D
probably quite a bit of nervousness or tension that may affect shooting negatively
S.C. is the dominant pick
this is one bet divided into 5 smaller bets - each bet one fifth of usual amount
S.C. on the moneyline -278 4 times for a win if they don't cover
and one time on the spread -6.5
look for the great Raven Johnson of S.C. to get even_________________glta
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/basketball/wncaab
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I'll add under 76 first half total -120 to my picks for womens champ game today - S.C./Iowa
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/basketball/wncaab?category=halves
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Quote: lilredrooster.
I'll add under 76 first half total -120 to my picks for womens champ game today - S.C./Iowa
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/basketball/wncaab?category=halves
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Game starts at 12pm
WTF
This game deserves prime time
I'm not a big Caitlin fan
But
I can't stand that SC coach
Light her up Caitlin . She gets hot early, look out
Caitlin ain't much of a looker but that team has some hot looking girls
Go Iowa
Quote: terapinedQuote: lilredrooster.
I'll add under 76 first half total -120 to my picks for womens champ game today - S.C./Iowa
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/basketball/wncaab?category=halves
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link to original post
Game starts at 12pm
WTF
This game deserves prime time
I'm not a big Caitlin fan
But
I can't stand that SC coach
Light her up Caitlin . She gets hot early, look out
Caitlin ain't much of a looker but that team has some hot looking girls
Go Iowa
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Clark did not have a good game in the semifinal so hopefully she will be on fire for this game.
Obviously as an Iowa alum I will be rooting for them but I expect USC to win the game.
tomorrow night -
one bet - one unit divided up as such:
80% on UConn on the moneyline -275___________a smallish win if they don't cover
20% on UConn -6.5__________if they do cover the bet as a whole will profit by a little bit less than 1/2
can't see anything I like on the o/u
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one bet - one unit divided as such - NHL
60% Tampa Bay Lightning over Blue Jackets - -330_____________smallish loss of about 10% of total bet if win but fail to cover
40% Lighting -1.5 Puck Line - 128 (fanduel)___________the bet as a whole will return slightly less than 1/2 if they cover
edit - the above math is incorrect - sorry about that
if the Lightning win but fail to cover the loss will be slightly over 20% of the total bet amount - sorry about that
the calculation if they do cover is correct
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$5 on Gary Woodland to win $1255. Sounds like a sure thing.
Quote: DRichI just made my first ever golf bet.
$5 on Gary Woodland to win $1255. Sounds like a sure thing.
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250-1 seems like a fair price on an ex Major winner who hadn’t been playing very well.
If I was in NY I’d be betting on Scheffler in all the promos.
Quote: SOOPOO
250-1 seems like a fair price on an ex Major winner who hadn’t been playing very well.
The guy had brain surgery about 8 months ago. I have a soft spot for him because that was about the same time my wife had her first brain surgery.
I keep thinking I have to expect to put more money into my bankroll if I want to keep making $50 bets, in order to deal with the ups and downs. But ever since I started making these 'first three-pointer' bets I've been lucky. Prior to it, my luck was distinctly bad at DK. Nice timing for the change!
You get that, DK? Lucky is the story here.
today Yankees -220 over Marlins
edited - changed original post of bet to just money line
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Anyone is using value betting?
Like to share experiencies
Regards
Ybot
Quote: ybotHi
Anyone is using value betting?
Like to share experiencies
Regards
Ybot
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What exactly do you mean by value betting?
These data is provided by a software service, a home made program, or a detailed study
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ybotHi
Anyone is using value betting?
Like to share experiencies
Regards
Ybot
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What exactly do you mean by value betting?
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If YBOT was a new poster I would be expecting him to try to sell us a system or service
Quote: ybotAny bet with an edge over the bookies
These data is provided by a software service, a home made program, or a detailed study
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Gotcha. I try and make bets that have an edge over the bookies. But the vast majority of the time they rely on some sort of promotion being offered. I’ve detailed a few inefficiencies that ‘I think’ have given me an advantage as well. My ‘Knicks over’ rebounds for specific players is an example I’ve given
not to mention having to face the disappointment of being totally wrong about something being +EV, a distinct possibility
Quote: ybotThere many true +ev bets.
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Of course. But me being able to successfully identify them and get a bet in is not a given. If you show me how to do it I will!
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ybotThere many true +ev bets.
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Of course. But me being able to successfully identify them and get a bet in is not a given. If you show me how to do it I will!
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Value bets can be obtained from differents sources. A value bet provider which ypu pay years o month membership, a precise sport where you lnow the most and study. An other AI feeds.
Quote: ybotDRICH, I Joined 1 month before you did
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That is why I said "if you were a new poster".
Quote: ybotQuote: SOOPOOQuote: ybotThere many true +ev bets.
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Of course. But me being able to successfully identify them and get a bet in is not a given. If you show me how to do it I will!
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Value bets can be obtained from differents sources. A value bet provider which ypu pay years o month membership, a precise sport where you lnow the most and study. An other AI feeds.
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Serious question. If you believe these ‘sources’ can give you real +EV bets, why are you asking for help here?
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ybotQuote: SOOPOOQuote: ybotThere many true +ev bets.
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Of course. But me being able to successfully identify them and get a bet in is not a given. If you show me how to do it I will!
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Value bets can be obtained from differents sources. A value bet provider which ypu pay years o month membership, a precise sport where you lnow the most and study. An other AI feeds.
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Serious question. If you believe these ‘sources’ can give you real +EV bets, why are you asking for help here?
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Soopoo the sharp may be another source 😉
Astros/Royals over 8.5 - 115
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Some of the tips to analyze are:
1)pick which bookies to register
2)measure the size of each beat due to the edge, odds and to remain below the radar
3)identify the false value bets
4)decide which bets are the best . For instance odds from 1.10 to 2. Or 2 to 5. No matter the edge
5) play only high edge bets no matter the odd
6)doble check pur sources to be certain there is an edge
7)play few bets against playing them all
8)syndicate playing
And other 10 other tips
Quote: DRichI just saw Mike Weir is 2000-1 to win the Masters. He won it in 2003, but he is Canadian.
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I wonder what the odds are on Tiger
I doubt he has it in him
But
His last win was incredible
Quote: terapinedQuote: DRichI just saw Mike Weir is 2000-1 to win the Masters. He won it in 2003, but he is Canadian.
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I wonder what the odds are on Tiger
I doubt he has it in him
But
His last win was incredible
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Tiger is currently 150-1 at Hard Rock.
My pick of Gary Woodland at 250-1 is now 5000-1, so they are still saying he has a chance.
one pick divided as such:
Edmonton tonight over Arizona - 290________80% of bet for a tiny win if they win but fail to cover
Edmonton on the Puck Line -1.5 -112 with the other 20% of the bet__________if they cover the win is about 45% of the total amount bet
Edmonton still has a shot at catching Vancouver for the top spot in the Pacific Division
this will be Arizona's 4th game in a row on the road - that has to be tough
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MLS soccer
NY Red Bulls/Chicago Fire over 2.5 goals_____________-120
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add one more pick for today -
Marco Gonzalez - Pirates Pitcher - giving up under 3.5 earned runs to Phillies _____-165_________DraftKings_______see link
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/mlb?category=pitcher-props
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Quote: lilredrooster.
add one more pick for today -
Marco Gonzalez - Pirates Pitcher - giving up under 3.5 earned runs to Phillies _____-165_________DraftKings_______see link
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/mlb?category=pitcher-props
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I'll keep an eye on him
I play fantasy baseball for prize money
Nobody has him in the 3 leagues I play in
Only rostered in 3% of yahoo fantasy leagues
This guy have good stuff?
Should I pick him up?
Quote: terapinedQuote: lilredrooster.
add one more pick for today -
Marco Gonzalez - Pirates Pitcher - giving up under 3.5 earned runs to Phillies _____-165_________DraftKings_______see link
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/mlb?category=pitcher-props
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I'll keep an eye on him
I play fantasy baseball for prize money
Nobody has him in the 3 leagues I play in
Only rostered in 3% of yahoo fantasy leagues
This guy have good stuff?
Should I pick him up?
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he's been very tough so far this season - 11 innings pitched - given up 3 earned runs
thru his career he has a winning record and 4.12 - era - pretty tough I would say - not great
thru last season and this season he's 9-3 giving up less than 3.5 earned runs - by that calculation the bet has an edge but you never know - no guarantees of course
you can see all his stats at the link
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzama02.shtml
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have been kind of mediocre or a little worse than mediocre with my picks
gonna try and improve by focusing on proposition bets where I think there is a better chance of finding mispricings
today Nets at 6ers - Tobias Harris over 13.5 points -105 - (draftkings)
he's averaging 17 for the year - he's been over that total in the last 10 games and over 21-5 in the last 26 games
the last time the 6ers played the Nets Harris had 18
try one more for today - Pistons vs. Spurs - Jalen Duren over 5.5 rebounds -125
he's gone over that total 30-4 in his last 34 games
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/basketball/nba?category=player-points
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one of yesterday's picks - Jalen Duren didn't play - any bets don't count - no action
today - Twins at Orioles -
Manuel Margot under 1.5 hits __________-195
he's gone under that total 11 of 12 times this season and 18 of his last 22 at bats last season
the Orioles starting pitcher is mediocre - the Orioles bullpen is very tough
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/mlb?category=batter-props&subcategory=hits
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prop for today - NBA - Lakers/Pelicans -
Rui Hachimura over 4.5 rebounds -135
he's been over that total in his last 6 games and 8 out of his last 10 games
add one more - Warriors/Kings- De'Aaron Fox under 3.5 three pointers made - 155____________he's gone under that total in 30 of his last 38 games
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/basketball/nba?category=player-threes&subcategory=threes
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/basketball/nba?category=player-rebounds&subcategory=rebounds
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Quote: lilredrooster.
prop for today - NBA - Lakers/Pelicans -
Rui Hachimura over 4.5 rebounds -135
he's been over that total in his last 6 games and 8 out of his last 10 games
add one more - Warriors/Kings- De'Aaron Fox under 3.5 three pointers made - 155____________he's gone under that total in 30 of his last 38 games
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/basketball/nba?category=player-threes&subcategory=threes
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/basketball/nba?category=player-rebounds&subcategory=rebounds
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This is a ‘do or die’ game. De’Aaron Fox most likely will play more minutes than a ‘regular’ game.
Hachimura might get less minutes than usual if Davis/James get more than their usual. No saving the stars for ‘the next game’.
That being said, I’m going to parlay your picks.
in the playoffs last year for the Kings - 7 games against the Warriors - Fox was under 3.5 threes 5 times out of 7
but of course, anything could happen___________that's why they call it gambling__________:}
Fox had 44 on the Lakers on 3/6 and only got 2 threes - reason for hope
I'm curious if you don't mind my asking - I know you like parlays - have you ever compared how you would be doing if you just made straight bets instead of parlays__?
if you lose one bet of a 3 bet parlay all is lost whereas if you bet straight you would have a nice profit
how does the vig in a parlay compare with the vig in just one bet_______?_________don't they up the juice______?_________I dunno - I'm not sure
thanks for any info
I guess it's all a matter of personal preference
for some - I guess - betting without parlays is just too boring - takes too long to get ahead by a lot
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Quote: SOOPOO
Hachimura might get less minutes than usual if Davis/James get more than their usual. No saving the stars for ‘the next game’.
I believe the Lakers are guaranteed at least two games.
Quote: lilredrooster.
in the playoffs last year for the Kings - 7 games against the Warriors - Fox was under 3.5 threes 5 times out of 7
but of course, anything could happen___________that's why they call it gambling__________:}
Fox had 44 on the Lakers on 3/6 and only got 2 threes - reason for hope
I'm curious if you don't mind my asking - I know you like parlays - have you ever compared how you would be doing if you just made straight bets instead of parlays__?
if you lose one bet of a 3 bet parlay all is lost whereas if you bet straight you would have a nice profit
how does the vig in a parlay compare with the vig in just one bet_______?_________don't they up the juice______?_________I dunno - I'm not sure
thanks for any info
I guess it's all a matter of personal preference
for some - I guess - betting without parlays is just too boring - takes too long to get ahead by a lot
.
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I don’t ‘like’ doing parlays. I do them when the boosts/free bets/etc.. make them +EV. Or when I’m doing them strictly for fun like your two picks today. I had a free bet so gave up a dollar or two in EV to ‘join you’.
Simple example for you. Say I have 4 free bets of $10. If I just take 4 even chance bets of -110. I’ll win two for a total of $18 into my account. If I bet 4 free bets of two leg parlays, all at -110 each, I’ll win 1 for $26 into my account.
Would you rather get $26 or $18?
Edit. And about the Fox under bet…. Yes, it is more likely to win than not, but you are laying -155. So it’s not really close to an even chance thing.
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOO
Hachimura might get less minutes than usual if Davis/James get more than their usual. No saving the stars for ‘the next game’.
I believe the Lakers are guaranteed at least two games.
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Correct. The 7 and 8 seeds are guaranteed at least two games. But not relevant to my point. The coaches are not saving the stars for ‘the next game’. They will be going all out so ‘the next game’ is a real playoff game.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
in the playoffs last year for the Kings - 7 games against the Warriors - Fox was under 3.5 threes 5 times out of 7
but of course, anything could happen___________that's why they call it gambling__________:}
Fox had 44 on the Lakers on 3/6 and only got 2 threes - reason for hope
I'm curious if you don't mind my asking - I know you like parlays - have you ever compared how you would be doing if you just made straight bets instead of parlays__?
if you lose one bet of a 3 bet parlay all is lost whereas if you bet straight you would have a nice profit
how does the vig in a parlay compare with the vig in just one bet_______?_________don't they up the juice______?_________I dunno - I'm not sure
thanks for any info
I guess it's all a matter of personal preference
for some - I guess - betting without parlays is just too boring - takes too long to get ahead by a lot
.
link to original post
I don’t ‘like’ doing parlays. I do them when the boosts/free bets/etc.. make them +EV. Or when I’m doing them strictly for fun like your two picks today. I had a free bet so gave up a dollar or two in EV to ‘join you’.
Simple example for you. Say I have 4 free bets of $10. If I just take 4 even chance bets of -110. I’ll win two for a total of $18 into my account. If I bet 4 free bets of two leg parlays, all at -110 each, I’ll win 1 for $26 into my account.
Would you rather get $26 or $18?
Edit. And about the Fox under bet…. Yes, it is more likely to win than not, but you are laying -155. So it’s not really close to an even chance thing.
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LOL. Have been watching. I seriously don’t think Hachimura has even been CLOSE to a rebound in the first half!!!
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
in the playoffs last year for the Kings - 7 games against the Warriors - Fox was under 3.5 threes 5 times out of 7
but of course, anything could happen___________that's why they call it gambling__________:}
Fox had 44 on the Lakers on 3/6 and only got 2 threes - reason for hope
I'm curious if you don't mind my asking - I know you like parlays - have you ever compared how you would be doing if you just made straight bets instead of parlays__?
if you lose one bet of a 3 bet parlay all is lost whereas if you bet straight you would have a nice profit
how does the vig in a parlay compare with the vig in just one bet_______?_________don't they up the juice______?_________I dunno - I'm not sure
thanks for any info
I guess it's all a matter of personal preference
for some - I guess - betting without parlays is just too boring - takes too long to get ahead by a lot
.
link to original post
I don’t ‘like’ doing parlays. I do them when the boosts/free bets/etc.. make them +EV. Or when I’m doing them strictly for fun like your two picks today. I had a free bet so gave up a dollar or two in EV to ‘join you’.
Simple example for you. Say I have 4 free bets of $10. If I just take 4 even chance bets of -110. I’ll win two for a total of $18 into my account. If I bet 4 free bets of two leg parlays, all at -110 each, I’ll win 1 for $26 into my account.
Would you rather get $26 or $18?
Edit. And about the Fox under bet…. Yes, it is more likely to win than not, but you are laying -155. So it’s not really close to an even chance thing.
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LOL. Have been watching. I seriously don’t think Hachimura has even been CLOSE to a rebound in the first half!!!
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Started watching at halftime
He gets a lot of minutes
But he seems to camp outside on offense
yeah, that was strange - Rui ended up with just one - his last 6 games before this one he got___________7,5,11,6,5,7 - and he got 33 minutes - about his usual
the pick on Fox was a winner he had just 2 3s but the two picks as a whole lost $
today -
royals/white sox -
Martin Maldonado under 0.5 hits_____________-140
he's a very light hitter batting just 0.65 - he's gone hitless in 10 out of his last 12 games
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/baseball/mlb?category=batter-props&subcategory=hits
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Quote: SOOPOOI joined you again. Got -135. I’m doing particularly poorly as of late. If he goes 3/4 with 2 homers you’ll know it’s my bet that did it!
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you need to 𝙃𝘼𝙈𝙈𝙀𝙍 𝙄𝙏 and I mean to just out and out 𝙃𝘼𝙈𝙈𝙀𝙍 𝙄𝙏__________you need to 𝙉𝘼𝙄𝙇 𝙄𝙏 𝘿𝙊𝙒𝙉
with some of dat big time Doctor green stuff
just kidding__________I just wanted to say 𝙃𝘼𝙈𝙈𝙀𝙍 𝙄𝙏________________:)
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