Sports betting chatter

Quote: Dieter

They have a book?
Last I heard, they were just a few trailers full of slots.
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Quote: SOOPOO

Tonight…. Jericho Sims is the only real center the Knicks have tonight. His O/U for rebounds is 5.5. I’m hammering the over. He missed last game with an ‘illness’. Maybe the books know he won’t be able to play full minutes? If he plays 30+ minutes 6 rebounds is a real low bar to go over.
Technically those are all -EV bets.
Knicks were a few point favorites until Hartenstein was ruled out. Now 1 point underdog. I’m surprised the Sims line didn’t move as well.
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Quote: FinsRule

Quote: SOOPOO

Tonight…. Jericho Sims is the only real center the Knicks have tonight. His O/U for rebounds is 5.5. I’m hammering the over. He missed last game with an ‘illness’. Maybe the books know he won’t be able to play full minutes? If he plays 30+ minutes 6 rebounds is a real low bar to go over.
Technically those are all -EV bets.
Knicks were a few point favorites until Hartenstein was ruled out. Now 1 point underdog. I’m surprised the Sims line didn’t move as well.
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Easy money. Nice
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Quote: SOOPOO

Today FD offering +200 on Tatum, Antetokounmpo, and Gilgeous -Alexander all to score 25 or more.
This has to be +EV. I think I’d bet it at +120.

I just had my Caesars account rewarded a bunch of Rewards Credits. I ‘think’ around $13 worth was from the 58 million credit giveaway. I love being on the receiving end of giveaways.

Monday is the day some of the books load the bonus bets/profit boosts from the previous week. So on Tuesdays (today) I make a boatload of coin flip bets. Today I put in some time to get an extra 1/2 point on each game.
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Quote: SOOPOO

Lost the three guys 25. Antetokounmpo had 23 in the 3rd quarter but Bucks were being shellacked. Not sure if he even saw the court in the 4th quarter. That’s often how you can lose such a bet.
But overall had a great night. Had two parlays that I ‘worked’ for. One had Celtics over 227.5, the other Celtics under 228.5. Not only did Celtics score 228, but the other legs in both boosted parlays hit. One was a 100% boost that turned +550 into +1100. To remind all, I had to make a single $10 soccer parlay bet to get that boost. I was allowed to bet $25 on the winning +1100 parlay.
As per my usual recently, if Hartenstein is out again will take over rebounds on Hart, Sims. and Achiuwa. If DiVincenzo is also out will bet heavily against the Knicks.
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Quote: ThatDonGuy

Meanwhile, now that the Super B-er, uh, "big game" is over, Circa is starting to advertise its next big event: Mega March and the Big Bracket Watch Party. Almost needless to say, "March Madness" is an NCAA trademark.

Somebody needs to tell them that "Elite Eight," and "Final Four" are also NCAA trademarks when it comes to its mens' and womens' basketball tournaments. ("Sweet Sixteen" is owned by the Kentucky High School Athletic Association.)
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Quote: SOOPOO

Won fading Georgetown. Won easily on Alabama over.

Today there is a +EV NBA offer on MGM. +375 on East money line and under 358.5. East is 2.5 point underdog and fair O/U is 356.5. Fair odds around +315?
I HATE betting on or having anything to do with All Star games. But I did take the offer.
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Quote: terapined

Quote: SOOPOO

Won fading Georgetown. Won easily on Alabama over.

Today there is a +EV NBA offer on MGM. +375 on East money line and under 358.5. East is 2.5 point underdog and fair O/U is 356.5. Fair odds around +315?
I HATE betting on or having anything to do with All Star games. But I did take the offer.
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WTF
350 points in a game
WTF
So absurd
I do like baseball
Great Allstar tradition
Pete Rose would come into game looking to seriously kick some ass
Ichiro would curse up a storm in the clubhouse before a game with tons of F bombs lobbed at the opposing team to get his teammates in the right frame of mind
I respect just win baby
No respect for 350 points
NBA is pretty pointless to watch until the playoffs
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Quote: SOOPOO

Bridge jumper today.

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

Bridge jumper today.

Once I was looking at live bets and noticed a -6000 bet for women's soccer in Spain, and the game had just started with no score . I thought it was remarkable that one team was deemed to have no chance at all, practically, and wondered how much you'd have to bet to even win a penny . Turned out to be a dollar and I went "what the hell" since I had it all set up, and made the bet. Game ended in a tie and I lost.

my fave day has arrived at DK [not seen Tuesday]
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Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

Bridge jumper today.

Once I was looking at live bets and noticed a -6000 bet for women's soccer in Spain, and the game had just started with no score . I thought it was remarkable that one team was deemed to have no chance at all, practically, and wondered how much you'd have to bet to even win a penny . Turned out to be a dollar and I went "what the hell" since I had it all set up, and made the bet. Game ended in a tie and I lost.

my fave day has arrived at DK [not seen Tuesday]
link to original post

The worst soccer team has a chance to shutout the best soccer team. I’d never ‘bridge jump’ when to win a soccer team HAD to score a goal.

Noticed a clearly +EV bet on FD today. Even money (+100) on Booker and Doncic to combine for 55 or more points. Fair line for Booker is 28, for Doncic 32. Getting even money is a gift. I’m thinking fair bet is -140 or so. I’ll either be $50 richer or poorer tomorrow.

With this being first game after all star break all the players are ‘rested’. And this is supposed to be a close game. I have Booker, Doncic, and Durant in other ‘over’ plays as well. Maybe they get more playing time…


(Expert trick…. at -6000 bet $1.20 to win two cents. That’s just my two cents….)
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Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

Bridge jumper today.

Once I was looking at live bets and noticed a -6000 bet for women's soccer in Spain, and the game had just started with no score . I thought it was remarkable that one team was deemed to have no chance at all, practically, and wondered how much you'd have to bet to even win a penny . Turned out to be a dollar and I went "what the hell" since I had it all set up, and made the bet. Game ended in a tie and I lost.

my fave day has arrived at DK [not seen Tuesday]
link to original post

The worst soccer team has a chance to shutout the best soccer team. I’d never ‘bridge jump’ when to win a soccer team HAD to score a goal.

Noticed a clearly +EV bet on FD today. Even money (+100) on Booker and Doncic to combine for 55 or more points. Fair line for Booker is 28, for Doncic 32. Getting even money is a gift. I’m thinking fair bet is -140 or so. I’ll either be $50 richer or poorer tomorrow.

With this being first game after all star break all the players are ‘rested’. And this is supposed to be a close game. I have Booker, Doncic, and Durant in other ‘over’ plays as well. Maybe they get more playing time…


(Expert trick…. at -6000 bet $1.20 to win two cents. That’s just my two cents….)
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I’ve always heard anecdotally to take the unders on the games the day back from the all star break. Theory I guess is that shooting skills aren’t as sharp first game back after everyone has had a vacation.
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Quote: SOOPOO

Noticed a clearly +EV bet on FD today. Even money (+100) on Booker and Doncic to combine for 55 or more points. Fair line for Booker is 28, for Doncic 32. Getting even money is a gift. I’m thinking fair bet is -140 or so. I’ll either be $50 richer or poorer tomorrow.

With this being first game after all star break all the players are ‘rested’. And this is supposed to be a close game. I have Booker, Doncic, and Durant in other ‘over’ plays as well. Maybe they get more playing time…

Quote: unJon

Game - Total (Line) - result

Pistons/Pacesr - 244 (247.5) - under
Nets/Raptors - 214 (231.5) - under
Knicks/76ers - 206 (228.5) - under
Magic/Cavs - 225 (214.5) - over
Suns/Mavs - 236 (244.5) - under
Celtics/Bulls - 241 (223.5) - over
Clippers/Thun - 236 (235.5) - over
Rockets/Pelicans - 232 (226.5) - over
Hornets/Jazz - 222 (229.5) - under
Wizards/Nugg - 240 (232.5) - over
Lakers/Warriors - 238 (243.5) - under
Spurs/Kings - 249 (242.5) - over

Totals were 6-6. At least this year both SOOPOO and the anecdotal story I heard were both wrong.
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Quote:

A good chunk of DKNG’s beat and raises over the past few quarters have been driven by better structural hold, driven by greater mix of higher hold products like multi-leg parlays

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote:

A good chunk of DKNG’s beat and raises over the past few quarters have been driven by better structural hold, driven by greater mix of higher hold products like multi-leg parlays

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/draftkings-benefits-from-a-gift-that-keeps-on-giving-its-stock-has-a-new-fan-e35f551d

we talked about parlays here, and since I was wrong about some things I trotted out about them, you might have thought there was a general conclusion they're not so bad. I certainly did not conclude that, and I avoid them still. Offers that return your initial bet with a freebet I would estimate to be at most thinly +EV and easily can be -EV depending on what bets can be used. Perhaps they are always -EV. I realized lately another reason they aren't what they seem is the freebet doesn't cover what you bet ... in a parlay your total action, which becomes invisible, is much greater than the initial bet. A freebet that covered all that, yeah, now that I can see being a different matter indeed.
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Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote:

A good chunk of DKNG’s beat and raises over the past few quarters have been driven by better structural hold, driven by greater mix of higher hold products like multi-leg parlays

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/draftkings-benefits-from-a-gift-that-keeps-on-giving-its-stock-has-a-new-fan-e35f551d

we talked about parlays here, and since I was wrong about some things I trotted out about them, you might have thought there was a general conclusion they're not so bad. I certainly did not conclude that, and I avoid them still. Offers that return your initial bet with a freebet I would estimate to be at most thinly +EV and easily can be -EV depending on what bets can be used. Perhaps they are always -EV. I realized lately another reason they aren't what they seem is the freebet doesn't cover what you bet ... in a parlay your total action, which becomes invisible, is much greater than the initial bet. A freebet that covered all that, yeah, now that I can see being a different matter indeed.
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You just need to know how to maximize the value of the SPECIFIC offer.

I’ll give one easy example. If you get your bet back as a ‘free bet’ if you lose one leg, you are NOT trying to maximize your payout if you win. You are trying to, IF you lose, only lose 1 leg. If limited to -500 or longer, I’ll take 4 favorites -300 to -500 if available.

If you get the free bet back regardless of how many legs you lose, I try for a longshot (at least +500) using legs that I feel are correlated, like a players rebounding (over), points (over) and his team to win. (Jokic last night).

If you get a FUTURE profit boost that increases on number of legs, I try to correlate the legs as much as possible. If I pick ‘tie’ in soccer and you can also get ‘even’ for total goals, that’s an easy example.

Many more examples…. But the majority (not all) CAN BE made +EV.
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Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote:

A good chunk of DKNG’s beat and raises over the past few quarters have been driven by better structural hold, driven by greater mix of higher hold products like multi-leg parlays

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/draftkings-benefits-from-a-gift-that-keeps-on-giving-its-stock-has-a-new-fan-e35f551d

we talked about parlays here, and since I was wrong about some things I trotted out about them, you might have thought there was a general conclusion they're not so bad. I certainly did not conclude that, and I avoid them still. Offers that return your initial bet with a freebet I would estimate to be at most thinly +EV and easily can be -EV depending on what bets can be used. Perhaps they are always -EV. I realized lately another reason they aren't what they seem is the freebet doesn't cover what you bet ... in a parlay your total action, which becomes invisible, is much greater than the initial bet. A freebet that covered all that, yeah, now that I can see being a different matter indeed.
link to original post

You just need to know how to maximize the value of the SPECIFIC offer.

I’ll give one easy example. If you get your bet back as a ‘free bet’ if you lose one leg, you are NOT trying to maximize your payout if you win. You are trying to, IF you lose, only lose 1 leg. If limited to -500 or longer, I’ll take 4 favorites -300 to -500 if available.

If you get the free bet back regardless of how many legs you lose, I try for a longshot (at least +500) using legs that I feel are correlated, like a players rebounding (over), points (over) and his team to win. (Jokic last night).

If you get a FUTURE profit boost that increases on number of legs, I try to correlate the legs as much as possible. If I pick ‘tie’ in soccer and you can also get ‘even’ for total goals, that’s an easy example.

Many more examples…. But the majority (not all) CAN BE made +EV.
link to original post

well, OK, but you have to believe that the freebet, that only covers a small portion of what you actually bet [only the initial bet in offers I see], is enough to make it +EV ... this, no matter how smart you play it, seems to require quite a bit of faith.
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Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote:

A good chunk of DKNG’s beat and raises over the past few quarters have been driven by better structural hold, driven by greater mix of higher hold products like multi-leg parlays

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/draftkings-benefits-from-a-gift-that-keeps-on-giving-its-stock-has-a-new-fan-e35f551d

we talked about parlays here, and since I was wrong about some things I trotted out about them, you might have thought there was a general conclusion they're not so bad. I certainly did not conclude that, and I avoid them still. Offers that return your initial bet with a freebet I would estimate to be at most thinly +EV and easily can be -EV depending on what bets can be used. Perhaps they are always -EV. I realized lately another reason they aren't what they seem is the freebet doesn't cover what you bet ... in a parlay your total action, which becomes invisible, is much greater than the initial bet. A freebet that covered all that, yeah, now that I can see being a different matter indeed.
link to original post

You just need to know how to maximize the value of the SPECIFIC offer.

I’ll give one easy example. If you get your bet back as a ‘free bet’ if you lose one leg, you are NOT trying to maximize your payout if you win. You are trying to, IF you lose, only lose 1 leg. If limited to -500 or longer, I’ll take 4 favorites -300 to -500 if available.

If you get the free bet back regardless of how many legs you lose, I try for a longshot (at least +500) using legs that I feel are correlated, like a players rebounding (over), points (over) and his team to win. (Jokic last night).

If you get a FUTURE profit boost that increases on number of legs, I try to correlate the legs as much as possible. If I pick ‘tie’ in soccer and you can also get ‘even’ for total goals, that’s an easy example.

Many more examples…. But the majority (not all) CAN BE made +EV.
link to original post

well, OK, but you have to believe that the freebet, that only covers a small portion of what you actually bet [only the initial bet in offers I see], is enough to make it +EV ... this, no matter how smart you play it, seems to require quite a bit of faith.
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Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: (me)

well, OK, but you have to believe that the freebet, that only covers a small portion of what you actually bet [only the initial bet in offers I see], is enough to make it +EV ... this, no matter how smart you play it, seems to require quite a bit of faith.
link to original post

I’ll be blunt. You are just plain wrong.

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: (me)

well, OK, but you have to believe that the freebet, that only covers a small portion of what you actually bet [only the initial bet in offers I see], is enough to make it +EV ... this, no matter how smart you play it, seems to require quite a bit of faith.
link to original post

I’ll be blunt. You are just plain wrong.

OK, I'm enjoying the debate, no worries

one thing to look at is why are the gambling sites crowing over all the money they are making on parlays now that they are using those so much? You can say it's the ploppies not knowing how to bet them, but how does that make a parlay better than other bets for the house?

As for your specific example, I'll get back to you. This will take time.
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Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: (me)

well, OK, but you have to believe that the freebet, that only covers a small portion of what you actually bet [only the initial bet in offers I see], is enough to make it +EV ... this, no matter how smart you play it, seems to require quite a bit of faith.
link to original post

I’ll be blunt. You are just plain wrong.

OK, I'm enjoying the debate, no worries

one thing to look at is why are the gambling sites crowing over all the money they are making on parlays now that they are using those so much? You can say it's the ploppies not knowing how to bet them, but how does that make a parlay better than other bets for the house?

As for your specific example, I'll get back to you. This will take time.
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Quote: SOOPOO

DK +EV bet of the day. Curry/Jokic to combine for 12 1st Q points at +100 ( even money). So over 11.5. Fair line is probably over/under 14.
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Quote: SOOPOO

I’ll do an easy one from today. DK has the $10 FB if you lose your 3 leg parlay. So I bet a 3 leg parlay that I will win 1 out of 10 times. But the ‘juice’ has me only winning $80 if I hit it.

So 1 in 10 times I’m +$80. 9 in ten times I’m -$10. So in ten times I lose on average $1 per bet. And since 9 times I get a $10 free bet, on average I get a $9 free bet each time. Would you pay $1 for a $9 free bet? ITS NOT EVEN CLOSE. Now, it’s only a few $$ in +EV, no windfall, but it MOST CERTAINLY is +EV. EVEN IF YOU DOUBLE ‘the juice’ on the parlay.

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Quote: odiousgambit

Let’s assume a -110 bet has a 50% chance of winning

if you bet $5 on a -110 bet, the payoff on a win is 5*100/110 while on a loss you lose the $5.

with equal chances on that outcome, the EV is -45 cents

Quote: unJon

In my opinion you should just use EV for your calcs. HE suffers from the fact that it is calculated using a denominator of “initial bet” that makes it difficult to do comparisons between different types of bets. EV in $ terms is always apples to apples.

So when DK offers a free bet if you make a parlay bet, just compare the +EV of the free bet to the -EV of the parlay.

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Quote: djtehch34t

Quote: odiousgambit

Let’s assume a -110 bet has a 50% chance of winning

if you bet $5 on a -110 bet, the payoff on a win is 5*100/110 while on a loss you lose the $5.

with equal chances on that outcome, the EV is -45 cents

I recommend checking this part. Your first EV calculation for the parlay should also look more correct when you fix this.
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Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

I’ll do an easy one from today. DK has the $10 FB if you lose your 3 leg parlay. So I bet a 3 leg parlay that I will win 1 out of 10 times. But the ‘juice’ has me only winning $80 if I hit it.

So 1 in 10 times I’m +$80. 9 in ten times I’m -$10. So in ten times I lose on average $1 per bet. And since 9 times I get a $10 free bet, on average I get a $9 free bet each time. Would you pay $1 for a $9 free bet? ITS NOT EVEN CLOSE. Now, it’s only a few $$ in +EV, no windfall, but it MOST CERTAINLY is +EV. EVEN IF YOU DOUBLE ‘the juice’ on the parlay.

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Took me awhile to reply to this part of that post as I wanted to crunch some numbers again. I wanted to look at the old formula where H = house edge, E=expected value, and B= bet amount

we know certainly B*H=E

so H=E/B

Let’s assume a -110 bet has a 50% chance of winning

if you bet $5 on a -110 bet, the payoff on a win is 5*100/110 while on a loss you lose the $5.

with equal chances on that outcome, the EV is -45 cents

H=E/B per above and the HE is then 9%

take two at -110 odds and parlay them [not same game]. Assume again real chances are 50-50 on each leg. DK indicates the payout is 18.38 on a $5 bet , 13.58 winnings on a win. On a loss, you *seem* to lose only $5, that at 75% of trials, winning the 13.58, at 25% chances.

Crunch that out at 13.38*0.25-5*0.75 and you get -0.405, or 41 cents for every $5 bet, it seems… H=E/B and -0.082 is the product, so house edge is 8.2% ? and IT SEEMS the HE has actually improved in your favor. Not too likely , eh?

So what is wrong here, as Unjon hammered into me, is that you are not betting $5; much of the time you are betting another 9.45. Now here my math may fail me but I get on average you lose $5 25% of the time, lose 9.45 50% of the time, and win 13.58 25% of the time. 13.58*0.25-5*0.25-9.45*0.50 gives us -2.58

where B is now, in equal chances, 5 or 9.45 or 9.45 or 9.45, so it’s 33.35/4= 8.3375 on average. [this is where I might make a mistake, it could be [5+9.45+9.45]/3=7.97]H=E/B = -2.58/8.34 = -0.3093525179856115 or a 31% house edge
if H=E/B = -2.58/7.97 = -0.3237139272271016 or a 32% house edge [I think it’s the former]

In any case, as far as I can determine, parlaying increases the house edge when you use -EV bets. There’s a reason to crow for a gambling site!

I think if you use +EV bets, it increases player edge

perhaps there is an error up there somewhere, one of which I show as possible, appreciate any help, but I think the essential answer that you are losing $2.58 every time you bet a *normal* $5 initial bet parlay *is correct* and the house edge even worse in a same game parlay where they are able to manipulate. Your are expecting too much out of the second chance on the *initial bet* , sir.
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Quote: SOOPOO

I stopped reading after your flawed first paragraph. The house edge on a ‘regular’ -110 line is NOT 9%!!!!

Around 1/2 that. So no reason for me to read the rest…..

Quote:

Once again, to be clear, I AGREE with you that parlay bets have a nice house edge built in. But if the BONUSES/BOOSTS are large enough, it is easy to overcome that house edge.

Yesterday had two leg parlay, $25, that with boost paid me $155. If there was no juice the fair payout would be $100. So 1 out of 4 times I win $130. 3 out of 4 times I lose $25. So my EV per bet is +15. I get this offer by making a $10 parlay bet that iI lose probably $2 in EV on?

Quote:

I can do this every day. $13/day is well over $4k a year. It takes me two minutes.
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Quote: odiousgambit

Or maybe not ... maybe you believe you are only betting $10 ... that's what the casino wants you to think. Ponder that.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: odiousgambit

Or maybe not ... maybe you believe you are only betting $10 ... that's what the casino wants you to think. Ponder that.

Ok. I know you are trying. I can with 100% assuredness tell you when I bet $10 on the first parlay to earn the bonus, I am only betting $10. It is, in toto, a full bet. It either wins fully or, if any single leg loses, loses fully. When I say it’s costing me around $2 per bet it’s because I’ve figured in the total expectation of all the legs. My EV on that initial $10 parlay is -$2. That IS WHAT IS RELEVANT.

Quote:

Now, on to my boosted bet I ‘earned’ by making that $10 bet. It’s a few posts upthread. To re-summarize, I get to make a SINGLE BET, even though it’s in parlay form, that has an EV of +$15. THAT IS WHAT IS RELEVANT.

If it makes you content to think I’m somehow betting more than $10 and $25…. be my guest! IT IS NOT RELEVANT to the EV.
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Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: unJon

In my opinion you should just use EV for your calcs. HE suffers from the fact that it is calculated using a denominator of “initial bet” that makes it difficult to do comparisons between different types of bets. EV in $ terms is always apples to apples.

So when DK offers a free bet if you make a parlay bet, just compare the +EV of the free bet to the -EV of the parlay.

link to original post

I can see discarding the idea of making an HE calc. on a not apples to apples basis

for $5, is the EV -$2.58 vs the EV of the freebet in your view? The latter would be considerable if bet right. If you bet $5 on the freeplay at +400, while the odds of winning are actually 1/6 instead of 1/5, say, you don’t get the wagered amount but only the winnings, but the winnings are $20 at one chance in 6, no amount losing [at this phase]. The EV is $3.33

Why would the sportsbooks be crowing about that?
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Quote: unJon

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: unJon

In my opinion you should just use EV for your calcs. HE suffers from the fact that it is calculated using a denominator of “initial bet” that makes it difficult to do comparisons between different types of bets. EV in $ terms is always apples to apples.

So when DK offers a free bet if you make a parlay bet, just compare the +EV of the free bet to the -EV of the parlay.

link to original post

I can see discarding the idea of making an HE calc. on a not apples to apples basis

for $5, is the EV -$2.58 vs the EV of the freebet in your view? The latter would be considerable if bet right. If you bet $5 on the freeplay at +400, while the odds of winning are actually 1/6 instead of 1/5, say, you don’t get the wagered amount but only the winnings, but the winnings are $20 at one chance in 6, no amount losing [at this phase]. The EV is $3.33

Why would the sportsbooks be crowing about that?
link to original post

No. You can ignore the fact that a parlay is the same as betting “more” each leg if you just focus on EV. That’s why EV is more useful for compairsons. The betting “more” is just needed to fix the denominator if you try to do it with HE instead of EV.

So if I was going to analyze an offer to make a $5 two-leg parlay in order to get a $5 free bet:

EV of parlay (assume pays true parlay odds):

-5*0.75 + 13.13*0.25 = -$0.4675

EV of $5 free bet depends on how long the odds are you put it on as you note above, but it’s clearly worth way more than the 47 cents in EV you lose making the parlay.
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Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: unJon

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: unJon

In my opinion you should just use EV for your calcs. HE suffers from the fact that it is calculated using a denominator of “initial bet” that makes it difficult to do comparisons between different types of bets. EV in $ terms is always apples to apples.

So when DK offers a free bet if you make a parlay bet, just compare the +EV of the free bet to the -EV of the parlay.

link to original post

I can see discarding the idea of making an HE calc. on a not apples to apples basis

for $5, is the EV -$2.58 vs the EV of the freebet in your view? The latter would be considerable if bet right. If you bet $5 on the freeplay at +400, while the odds of winning are actually 1/6 instead of 1/5, say, you don’t get the wagered amount but only the winnings, but the winnings are $20 at one chance in 6, no amount losing [at this phase]. The EV is $3.33

Why would the sportsbooks be crowing about that?
link to original post

No. You can ignore the fact that a parlay is the same as betting “more” each leg if you just focus on EV. That’s why EV is more useful for compairsons. The betting “more” is just needed to fix the denominator if you try to do it with HE instead of EV.

So if I was going to analyze an offer to make a $5 two-leg parlay in order to get a $5 free bet:

EV of parlay (assume pays true parlay odds):

-5*0.75 + 13.13*0.25 = -$0.4675

EV of $5 free bet depends on how long the odds are you put it on as you note above, but it’s clearly worth way more than the 47 cents in EV you lose making the parlay.
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they're lining up against me, folks, ha ha

looks like you figure chances of losing a $5 initial bet is 75%, while there's a 25% chance of winning 13.13. That takes me back to my original thinking, which was said to be wrong. I'll have to think about this.

I am going to have to ponder this
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Quote: odiousgambit

I guess I get in trouble going into the house edge 'weeds'.

Let’s try to figure out Wong. He likes parlays, even if no offer included, he says

he indeed mentions and likes the -110 bet. To like that bet, you have to think it has a better than 50% chance of winning. Let’s say it has a 55% chance of winning because Wong can really pick em

amnt to win times chance of winning minus amt to lose times chance of losing

if $5 ……………… 0.55*5*100/110-0.45*5=0.25

0.25/5 = 0.05 is the player advantage and Unjon says only look at the EV, 25cents on $5

let’s parlay that 3 times, $5 initial bet, and not same game, figuring each leg is +EV. Using DK I get Payout: $34.78, which is 29.78 in winnings on a win.

so chances of winning become 0.55*0.55*0.55 with other combinations losers. We get 0.166375 or 1 in 6 [close enough]

1/6*29.78 - 5/6*5 rounds off to 80 cents. Sure beats 25 cents if we look at EV only, of course each bet was +EV if you are good enough to beat the oddsmakers outright. [Errors in above possible]

At least we have to suspect if parlaying increases player advantage if all legs are +EV, then it makes sense that -EV bets get magnified the other way. You can’t have it both ways. I will stick to my idea that you need to pick bets for any second chance bet with good heft, staying away from, say, +200 and below .
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Quote: SOOPOO

Thanks UnJon for helping me here!

Today FD has a bet offer I ‘think’ they made a mistake on?
Sabonis and Adebayo to combine for over 39.5 points. Sabonis fair o/u is 19.5. Adebayo fair o/u is 23. So fair o/u is 42.5 So over 39.5 should be around -130. Expected the ‘boost’ to be +100. But it is +200!
I am pretty sure there are no correlation issues helping or hurting this bet.
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