Presidential Election Betting

Threads: 22
Posts: 6515

Joined: Sep 26, 2012

September 25th, 2023 at 6:38:38 AM permalink

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1982/09/17/reagan-should-not-seek-second-term-majority-believes/4ccc2a56-1693-469d-af51-1368fd0fc649/

September 17, 1982

Quote:
Almost six in 10 Americans feel Ronald Reagan should not run for a second term as president, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Ding Dong the Witch is Dead

EvenBob

Threads: 441
Posts: 28685

Joined: Jul 18, 2010

September 26th, 2023 at 10:37:28 PM permalink

Latest RCP presidential poll has Trump up 1.5 which is an entire point more than it was just a few days ago.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

tuttigym

tuttigym

Threads: 10
Posts: 1845

Joined: Feb 12, 2010

Thanked by

September 27th, 2023 at 8:54:05 AM permalink

A recent article stated that 85% of horses believe congress is doing a lousy job. That from a newly released Gallop Poll.

tuttigym

TigerWu

Threads: 26
Posts: 5564

Joined: May 23, 2016

Thanked by

September 27th, 2023 at 9:05:19 AM permalink

I'm not sure how "updated" these odds are for the next President:

Bovada:

Joe Biden +185
Donald Trump Sr. +240
Ron DeSantis +450
Kamala Harris +2500
Gavin Newsom +3500

BetOnline:

Joe Biden +165
Donald Trump Sr. +250
Ron DeSantis +350
Kamala Harris +1600
Nikki Haley +3000

MyBookie:

Biden, Joe +174
Trump, Donald +236
Desantis, Ron +350
Harris, Kamala +2500
Buttigieg, Pete +3200

SOOPOO

SOOPOO

Threads: 122
Posts: 11010

Joined: Aug 8, 2010

September 27th, 2023 at 10:27:18 AM permalink

Quote: TigerWu
I'm not sure how "updated" these odds are for the next President:

Bovada:

Joe Biden +185
Donald Trump Sr. +240
Ron DeSantis +450
Kamala Harris +2500
Gavin Newsom +3500

BetOnline:

Joe Biden +165
Donald Trump Sr. +250
Ron DeSantis +350
Kamala Harris +1600
Nikki Haley +3000

MyBookie:

Biden, Joe +174
Trump, Donald +236
Desantis, Ron +350
Harris, Kamala +2500
Buttigieg, Pete +3200
link to original post

I�d take KH at 25-1. I think there is at least a >4% chance of Biden resigning/dying/ouster before next election. Add the tiny chance she actually runs and wins and I think 25-1 is +EV.

ams288

Threads: 22
Posts: 6515

Joined: Sep 26, 2012

September 29th, 2023 at 12:17:23 PM permalink

On Oct. 9th, RFK Jr. will announce he�s running as an independent after gaining zero traction amongst democrats

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/exclusive-robert-f-kennedy-jr-planning-to-announce-independent-run/

Ding Dong the Witch is Dead

TigerWu

Threads: 26
Posts: 5564

Joined: May 23, 2016

September 29th, 2023 at 12:20:41 PM permalink

Quote: ams288
On Oct. 9th, RFK Jr. will announce he�s running as an independent after gaining zero traction amongst democrats

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/exclusive-robert-f-kennedy-jr-planning-to-announce-independent-run/
link to original post

To the surprise of absolutely no one...LOL

ThatDonGuy

ThatDonGuy

Threads: 117
Posts: 6276

Joined: Jun 22, 2011

September 29th, 2023 at 1:48:10 PM permalink

Quote: tuttigym
A recent article stated that 85% of horses believe congress is doing a lousy job. That from a newly released Gallop Poll.

tuttigym
link to original post

So, 85% of horses think that Congress is on the wrong track?

Seriously, what was that meant to say - houses? Households?

rxwine

rxwine

Threads: 212
Posts: 12220

Joined: Feb 28, 2010

Thanked by

September 29th, 2023 at 2:05:57 PM permalink

Go right to the source and ask the horse
He'll give you the answer that you'll endorse.
He's always on a steady course.

There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.

billryan

Threads: 240
Posts: 16282

Joined: Nov 2, 2009

September 29th, 2023 at 2:17:48 PM permalink

Quote: ThatDonGuy
Quote: tuttigym
A recent article stated that 85% of horses believe congress is doing a lousy job. That from a newly released Gallop Poll.

tuttigym
link to original post

So, 85% of horses think that Congress is on the wrong track?

Seriously, what was that meant to say - houses? Households?
link to original post

Around 90% of Congressmen who run will be re-elected.

The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.

TigerWu

Threads: 26
Posts: 5564

Joined: May 23, 2016

September 29th, 2023 at 2:30:28 PM permalink

Quote: ThatDonGuy
Quote: tuttigym
A recent article stated that 85% of horses believe congress is doing a lousy job. That from a newly released Gallop Poll.

tuttigym
link to original post

So, 85% of horses think that Congress is on the wrong track?

Seriously, what was that meant to say - houses? Households?
link to original post

horses...gallop....

EvenBob

Threads: 441
Posts: 28685

Joined: Jul 18, 2010

September 29th, 2023 at 2:38:16 PM permalink

RFK Jr meeting with Libertarians to run as a third party candidate is going to take votes away from both Trump and Biden but it's Joe Biden who's going to get hurt the most. And everybody knows this. 75% of polled Democrats want somebody other than Biden on the ticket and RFK Jr is in a really good spot.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

TigerWu

Threads: 26
Posts: 5564

Joined: May 23, 2016

September 29th, 2023 at 2:48:26 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
RFK Jr meeting with Libertarians to run as a third party candidate is going to take votes away from both Trump and Biden but it's Joe Biden who's going to get hurt the most. And everybody knows this. 75% of polled Democrats want somebody other than Biden on the ticket and RFK Jr is in a really good spot.
link to original post

75% want someone other than Biden but between Biden and RFK Jr. they're still going to go with Biden. RFK Jr. is a DINO and everyone knows it. He has not even remotely been aligning his policies with what liberals and progressives want; he has definitely been going after Trump's base.

But whichever one of us is right, I think it will only be a temporary bump. RFK Jr. is news now, but I think once the campaign season really gets going he's going to disappear and no one will care about him.

EvenBob

Threads: 441
Posts: 28685

Joined: Jul 18, 2010

September 29th, 2023 at 3:06:34 PM permalink

Quote: TigerWu

But whichever one of us is right,
link to original post

Recent headlines:

Why A Third-Party Candidate Might Help Trump � And Spoil The Election For Biden

Bad Biden polls stoke third-party angst for Democrats

Could a third-party candidate actually derail Biden

And there's so many more, dozens and dozens of articles.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

TigerWu

Threads: 26
Posts: 5564

Joined: May 23, 2016

September 29th, 2023 at 3:11:36 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
Quote: TigerWu

But whichever one of us is right,
link to original post

Recent headlines:

Why A Third-Party Candidate Might Help Trump � And Spoil The Election For Biden

Bad Biden polls stoke third-party angst for Democrats

Could a third-party candidate actually derail Biden

And there's so many more, dozens and dozens of articles.
link to original post

Pure speculation and opinion pieces for media clickbait. He's no threat to Biden. Other candidates may be, but not RFK Jr. That's a right-wing pipe dream.

So far his betting odds don't look so good, though.

billryan

Threads: 240
Posts: 16282

Joined: Nov 2, 2009

September 29th, 2023 at 3:42:03 PM permalink

He read it on the internets, so there is that.

The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.

ams288

Threads: 22
Posts: 6515

Joined: Sep 26, 2012

Thanked by

September 29th, 2023 at 3:44:07 PM permalink

RFK Jr is an extreme anti-vaxxer and is anti-abortion, he is no threat to Biden. Trump should be more worried.

Ding Dong the Witch is Dead

billryan

Threads: 240
Posts: 16282

Joined: Nov 2, 2009

September 29th, 2023 at 3:46:08 PM permalink

He read it on the internets, so there is that.

The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.

tuttigym

tuttigym

Threads: 10
Posts: 1845

Joined: Feb 12, 2010

September 29th, 2023 at 3:58:13 PM permalink

Quote: TigerWu
Quote: ThatDonGuy
Quote: tuttigym
A recent article stated that 85% of horses believe congress is doing a lousy job. That from a newly released Gallop Poll.

tuttigym
link to original post

So, 85% of horses think that Congress is on the wrong track?

Seriously, what was that meant to say - houses? Households?
link to original post

horses...gallop....
link to original post

WOOOOHOOO.. Tiger It seems some math folks read too deeply between the lines. I hope it brought a smile to your face.

tuttigym

EvenBob

Threads: 441
Posts: 28685

Joined: Jul 18, 2010

September 29th, 2023 at 6:37:37 PM permalink

From Vanity Fair 5 hours ago

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Apparently Unconcerned About the Prospect of Helping Reelect Trump, Plans to Run as an Independent

"The idea of RFK Jr. running as an independent in the 2024 election is legitimately terrifying for a number of reasons, not the least of which being the fact that he could take votes away from Joe Biden and help Donald Trump."

This is from an extreme left-leaning publication and if they're afraid, the Democrats in general better be afraid.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

MichaelBluejay

Threads: 81
Posts: 1619

Joined: Sep 17, 2010

September 29th, 2023 at 6:53:14 PM permalink

The latest poll from Wisconsin suggests the race just got a lot tighter.

If the poll is correct (along with the other swing state polls), then in an election held today, Biden would win 276-262.

However, the 2020 polls in Wisconsin overstated Biden's advantage by 6 points. If the current WI poll is as inaccurate as the 2020 polls, then Trump wins 276-262.

All of this is shown in my Presidential Election Predictor�.

Also, Trump is now the favorite at ElectionBettingOdds.com, which has a pretty good track record in picking elections.

Presidential Election polls and odds: https://2605.me/p

GenoDRPh

GenoDRPh

Threads: 5
Posts: 527

Joined: Aug 4, 2022

September 29th, 2023 at 6:54:27 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
From Vanity Fair 5 hours ago

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Apparently Unconcerned About the Prospect of Helping Reelect Trump, Plans to Run as an Independent

"The idea of RFK Jr. running as an independent in the 2024 election is legitimately terrifying for a number of reasons, not the least of which being the fact that he could take votes away from Joe Biden and help Donald Trump."

This is from an extreme left-leaning publication and if they're afraid, the Democrats in general better be afraid.
link to original post

For all the hoopla, Jr will make about as much difference in 2024 as Kanye did in 2020.

gordonm888
Administrator

gordonm888

Threads: 60
Posts: 5056

Joined: Feb 18, 2015

Thanked by

September 29th, 2023 at 7:02:18 PM permalink

The only caveat I would offer before dismissing RFK Jr. is that a lot of independent voters really don't like either Trump or Biden, and might be looking for a recognizable name on which to file their protest vote.

So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

MichaelBluejay

Threads: 81
Posts: 1619

Joined: Sep 17, 2010

Thanked by

September 29th, 2023 at 7:08:10 PM permalink

In 2020, Biden's razor-thin margin of victory in 4 of the swing states was 0.24, 0.31, 0.63, and 1.16 pts.

A third-party candidate could *easily* pull that many points away from Biden.

Presidential Election polls and odds: https://2605.me/p

ams288

Threads: 22
Posts: 6515

Joined: Sep 26, 2012

September 29th, 2023 at 7:21:30 PM permalink

Quote: MichaelBluejay
Also, Trump is now the favorite at ElectionBettingOdds.com, which has a pretty good track record in picking elections.
link to original post

Did they have trump as the favorite in September 2015?

Did they have Biden as the favorite in September 2019?

Ding Dong the Witch is Dead

AxelWolf

Threads: 164
Posts: 22280

Joined: Oct 10, 2012

September 29th, 2023 at 7:29:35 PM permalink

Tue, Oct 10, 2023 EST
ROT DONALD TRUMP SR. TO BE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE & WIN 45.01 TO 50% OF THE POPULAR VOTE MONEYLINE
101 Yes +140
US Presidential Election 2024 - Donald Trump Sr. Popular Vote.
ROT DONALD TRUMP SR. TO BE TO BE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE & WIN 40.01 TO 45% OF THE POPULAR VOTE MONEYLINE
102 Yes +325
US Presidential Election 2024 - Donald Trump Popular Vote.
ROT DONALD TRUMP SR. TO BE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE & WIN 50.01 TO 55% OF THE POPULAR VOTE MONEYLINE
103 Yes +450
US Presidential Election 2024 - Donald Trump Popular Vote.
ROT DONALD TRUMP SR. TO BE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE & WIN 55.01 TO 60% OF THE POPULAR VOTE MONEYLINE
104 Yes +450
US Presidential Election 2024 - Donald Trump Popular Vote.
ROT DONALD TRUMP SR. TO BE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE & WIN MORE THAN 60% OF THE POPULAR VOTE MONEYLINE
105 Yes +275
US Presidential Election 2024 - Donald Trump Popular Vote.
ROT DONALD TRUMP SR. TO BE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE & WIN 40% OR LESS OF THE POPULAR VOTE MONEYLINE
106 Yes +800
US Presidential Election 2024 - Donald Trump Popular Vote.
Donald Trump : Specials
Sun, Oct 01, 2023 EST
ROT DONALD TRUMP SR. TO BE ELECTED PRESIDENT AS A THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE? MONEYLINE
1001 Yes +2000
2024 US Presidential Election
ROT IF FOUND GUILTY FOR HUSH MONEY, WILL DONALD TRUMP SR. SERVE A DAY OF HIS SENTENCE IN PRISON? MONEYLINE
101 Yes +1000
102 No -5000
BetUS' decision is final. Wagers posted after public announcement will be void.
ROT DONALD TRUMP SR. TO RUN AND WIN WITH 75% OF POPULAR VOTE ? MONEYLINE
1011 Yes +4000
2024 US Presidential Election. BetUS' decision is final. Wagers posted after public announcement will be void.
ROT WILL DONALD TRUMP SR. & HILLARY CLINTON CONTEST THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? MONEYLINE
101 Yes +3700
They must run as nominees for the Republican and Democratic parties
ROT DONALD TRUMP SR. VS JOE BIDEN FOR 2024 US ELECTION MONEYLINE
301 Yes -150
302 No +110
Donald Trump Sr. & Joe Biden Contest 2024 US Election as Republican & Democrat Candidates.
ROT WILL DONALD TRUMP SR. SERVE JAIL TIME BEFORE 2025? MONEYLINE
127 Yes +200
128 No -300
BetUS' decision is final. Wagers posted after public announcement will be void.
ROT WILL DONALD TRUMP SR. SERVE JAIL TIME BEFORE 2026? MONEYLINE
129 Yes +120
130 No -165
BetUS' decision is final. Wagers posted after public announcement will be void.
Tue, Oct 03, 2023 EST
ROT WILL DONALD TRUMP SR. CLEARED ON FIRST 3 INDICTMENTS BEFORE 2025? MONEYLINE
133 Yes +1000
134 No -5000
Donald Trump Sr. To Be Acquitted or Have All Charges Dropped In The 3 Indicments Before End Of 2024. BetUS' decision is final. Wagers posted after public announcement will be void.
ROT STORMY DANIELS/HUSH MONEY - NUMBER OF GUILTY COUNTS MONEYLINE
451 Under 5 Counts +200
452 Between 5-24 Counts +250
453 25+ Counts

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

MichaelBluejay

Threads: 81
Posts: 1619

Joined: Sep 17, 2010

September 29th, 2023 at 7:36:17 PM permalink

Quote: ams288
Quote: MichaelBluejay
Also, Trump is now the favorite at ElectionBettingOdds.com, which has a pretty good track record in picking elections.
link to original post

Did they have trump as the favorite in September 2015?

No. In 2016, they had the wrong winner picked all the way every day all the way through election day. But, that was very early in their tracking project, and they've gotten a lot better since then.

Quote:
Did they have Biden as the favorite in September 2019?

No. In 2020, they had the wrong winner picked until June 6, 2020 (and then had the correct winner picked all the way until the election). However, that doesn't necessarily mean they were wrong, just that the relative strength of the candidates changed. And yes, the relative strength of the candidates could change this time too, but this time it's hard to imagine Biden picking up steam or Trump losing his. In any event, let's revisit this on June 6, 2024. (I made a note on my calendar.)

Presidential Election polls and odds: https://2605.me/p

EvenBob

Threads: 441
Posts: 28685

Joined: Jul 18, 2010

September 29th, 2023 at 7:48:18 PM permalink

Quote: MichaelBluejay
it's hard to imagine Biden picking up steam
link to original post

Not hard, it's impossible. Nobody who had a popularity rating of under 50% has ever been reelected to the presidency and in some polls Biden is down to 37%. For him to reach 50% in the next year he would literally have to put a chicken in every pot and a car in every garage. If you get my drift..

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

AxelWolf

Threads: 164
Posts: 22280

Joined: Oct 10, 2012

September 29th, 2023 at 7:49:57 PM permalink

GOP Nomination 2024
Trump 74.7%

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

AxelWolf

Threads: 164
Posts: 22280

Joined: Oct 10, 2012

September 29th, 2023 at 7:56:34 PM permalink

WILL DONALD TRUMP SR. SERVE JAIL TIME BEFORE 2025? MONEYLINE
127 Yes +200
128 No -300

WILL DONALD TRUMP SR. SERVE JAIL TIME BEFORE 2026? MONEYLINE
129 Yes +120
130 No -165

Would it be prudent to say if someone believes strongly that Trump is going to be president then the NO is a good bet?

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

EvenBob

Threads: 441
Posts: 28685

Joined: Jul 18, 2010

September 29th, 2023 at 8:08:36 PM permalink

Quote: MichaelBluejay

Also, Trump is now the favorite at ElectionBettingOdds.com, which has a pretty good track record in picking elections.
link to original post

The stunning thing about this poll is not that Trump has an almost 75% chance of winning the nomination and that's going up, it's that Joe Biden only has a 66% chance of winning the nomination and it's going down. In a normal year the incumbent usually has a 95% to 100% chance of winning the nomination.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

TigerWu

Threads: 26
Posts: 5564

Joined: May 23, 2016

September 30th, 2023 at 10:26:01 AM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
The stunning thing about this poll is not that Trump has an almost 75% chance of winning the nomination and that's going up, it's that Joe Biden only has a 66% chance of winning the nomination and it's going down. In a normal year the incumbent usually has a 95% to 100% chance of winning the nomination.

link to original post

You realize that's not good for Trump, right?

Biden's odds are going down because people want someone else. If some other Dem is eventually nominated, that's going to bring a lot of Dem voters bank into the fold and grab a ton of independents and center left Republicans who aren't voting for Biden because he's too old. Biden only won the first time because he was "not Trump." If someone else comes along who is "not Biden" AND "not Trump," they have a really good shot.

If I comes down to three way race between a not-Biden Dem, RFK Jr, and Trump, RFK jr and Trump voters are going to eat each other alive while the not-Biden Dem just coasts right into the oval office.

ams288

Threads: 22
Posts: 6515

Joined: Sep 26, 2012

September 30th, 2023 at 10:53:13 AM permalink

Democrats hate RFK Jr.

He will take more votes from trump.

Ding Dong the Witch is Dead

AxelWolf

Threads: 164
Posts: 22280

Joined: Oct 10, 2012

September 30th, 2023 at 12:11:07 PM permalink

Has anyone identified any +EV bets yet?

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

ChumpChange

ChumpChange

Threads: 111
Posts: 4795

Joined: Jun 15, 2018

Thanked by

September 30th, 2023 at 12:51:35 PM permalink

So many people have died or gone homeless since the last election and so many have turned 18 years old. Those demographics people will be tweaking at the extreme margins up until election day. Not to mention the extreme voter suppression going on in many states. Can't rule out stolen elections now either. There could be WWIII by then too, so there may be no election.

MichaelBluejay

Threads: 81
Posts: 1619

Joined: Sep 17, 2010

Thanked by

September 30th, 2023 at 2:52:38 PM permalink

Quote: ams288
Democrats hate RFK Jr.

He will take more votes from trump. link to original post

Doubtful. "Favorable" is not the same as "Who you gonna vote for?" Republican voters seem to have amazing loyalty (e.g., Trump's dozens of felony indictments didn't sway them one whit), Democratic voters seem much more fickle. RFK Jr. might be more "Favorable" to Republicans than he is to Dems, but if the question is who will abandon their candidate in greater numbers, surely it's Dems abandoning Biden than Republicans abandoning Trump.

Among other things, this is evidenced by Biden's lower chances of winning his party's nomination vs. Trump's chances.

I have to point out Bluejay's Law again: Someone who supports a candidate tends to interpret any news as being favorable to that candidate. Tell me you plan to vote for Trump and I'll reconsider.

Presidential Election polls and odds: https://2605.me/p

ams288

Threads: 22
Posts: 6515

Joined: Sep 26, 2012

Thanked by

September 30th, 2023 at 3:01:06 PM permalink

Quote: MichaelBluejay
Quote: ams288
Democrats hate RFK Jr.

He will take more votes from trump. link to original post
Doubtful. "Favorable" is not the same as "Who you gonna vote for?" Republican voters seem to have amazing loyalty (e.g., Trump's dozens of felony indictments didn't sway them one whit), Democratic voters seem much more fickle. RFK Jr. might be more "Favorable" to Republicans than he is to Dems, but if the question is who will abandon their candidate in greater numbers, surely it's Dems abandoning Biden than Republicans abandoning Trump.

Among other things, this is evidenced by Biden's lower chances of winning his party's nomination vs. Trump's chances.

I have to point out Bluejay's Law again: Someone who supports a candidate tends to interpret any news as being favorable to that candidate. Tell me you plan to vote for Trump and I'll reconsider.
link to original post

ams288�s law: analyzing and interpreting polls a year ahead of an election is stupid and a waste of time.

Ding Dong the Witch is Dead

AxelWolf

Threads: 164
Posts: 22280

Joined: Oct 10, 2012

September 30th, 2023 at 4:34:32 PM permalink

Quote: ams288
Quote: MichaelBluejay
Quote: ams288
Democrats hate RFK Jr.

He will take more votes from trump. link to original post
Doubtful. "Favorable" is not the same as "Who you gonna vote for?" Republican voters seem to have amazing loyalty (e.g., Trump's dozens of felony indictments didn't sway them one whit), Democratic voters seem much more fickle. RFK Jr. might be more "Favorable" to Republicans than he is to Dems, but if the question is who will abandon their candidate in greater numbers, surely it's Dems abandoning Biden than Republicans abandoning Trump.

Among other things, this is evidenced by Biden's lower chances of winning his party's nomination vs. Trump's chances.

I have to point out Bluejay's Law again: Someone who supports a candidate tends to interpret any news as being favorable to that candidate. Tell me you plan to vote for Trump and I'll reconsider.
link to original post

ams288�s law: analyzing and interpreting polls a year ahead of an election is stupid and a waste of time.
link to original post

Did you forget this is about ELECTION BETTING?
Finding value in bets early on before the lines get closer the the real value.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

billryan

Threads: 240
Posts: 16282

Joined: Nov 2, 2009

Thanked by

September 30th, 2023 at 5:06:43 PM permalink

If you bet $1,000 today, it's dead money until November 2024. I'd rather churn it three or five times between now and then. It's one reason why I don't like long-term betting.

The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.

AxelWolf

Threads: 164
Posts: 22280

Joined: Oct 10, 2012

October 1st, 2023 at 2:42:55 AM permalink

Quote: billryan
If you bet $1,000 today, it's dead money until November 2024. I'd rather churn it three or five times between now and then. It's one reason why I don't like long-term betting.
link to original post

Perhaps that would be a good post for the PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION NOT BETTING thread. I wonder why Mike opened this thread so far in advance? I bet there's a good reason (no pun intended)

Can you explain what "churn it three or five times between now and then" means? Examples, please. Not everyone has the ability and confidence to see +EV returns on their money.

Many people invest their money longer than 398 days. Haven't/don't you?

Assuming one has proven positive returns on their investments, there's nothing wrong with a little diversification. (No?)

There's a large number of people who don't have 100% of their money invested, so moving some stagnant money to a +EV situation would be a good thing(No?)

Someone interested in both politics and +EV situations might consider it entertainment knowing they have some sweat equity, especially if it's on a candidate they are rooting for.

Many +EV sports futures are long-term investments while providing entertainment/sweat equity all season long. Ever made a futures bet?

IIRC You yourself enjoyed MaxPen's lots of money/Trump winning celebration dinner. He felt very certain he had significant +EV and didn't mind waiting a while for a big return on his significant investment.

Someone might actually benefit from having their -EV gambling bankroll locked up in a +EV situation long term.

I have noticed in the past that early election betting oftentimes leads to hedge situations where someone is able to lock up significant profits.
One can even sell their bet and get out early.

Some people have multiple ways to bet/invest WITHOUT actually locking up the money. I believe you yourself proposed a possible long-term BTC with me that I correctly pointed out may take a very long time to resolve. It was so very close to that number, I don't know if it actually hit it or not.

So I'll ask again since this thread is about PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BETTING...

Has anyone spotted any potential good bets, if so why do you believe or know that to be the case?

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

unJon

unJon

Threads: 14
Posts: 4603

Joined: Jul 1, 2018

October 1st, 2023 at 5:34:39 AM permalink

Quote: billryan
If you bet $1,000 today, it's dead money until November 2024. I'd rather churn it three or five times between now and then. It's one reason why I don't like long-term betting.
link to original post

1) Some folk are able to bet with a no interest rate credit line. Payment on either side is only made when bet is graded.

2) There�s an easy time value of money discount formula that you can apply to determine if the edge in the net is still worthwhile.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

AxelWolf

Threads: 164
Posts: 22280

Joined: Oct 10, 2012

October 1st, 2023 at 5:52:56 AM permalink

Quote: unJon
Quote: billryan
If you bet $1,000 today, it's dead money until November 2024. I'd rather churn it three or five times between now and then. It's one reason why I don't like long-term betting.
link to original post

1) Some folk are able to bet with a no interest rate credit line. Payment on either side is only made when bet is graded.

2) There�s an easy time value of money discount formula that you can apply to determine if the edge in the net is still worthwhile.
link to original post

As stated in my posts above....

"Some people have multiple ways to bet/invest WITHOUT actually locking up the money"

You probably even save the VIg by proposing a bet with Mike.

Bill probably knew this, perhaps he just didn't think about it, or he wanted to let everyone know there's probably better value using a stock guy.

Are there any suspected +EV bets announced yet?

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

billryan

Threads: 240
Posts: 16282

Joined: Nov 2, 2009

October 1st, 2023 at 8:05:23 AM permalink

Quote: AxelWolf
Quote: billryan
If you bet $1,000 today, it's dead money until November 2024. I'd rather churn it three or five times between now and then. It's one reason why I don't like long-term betting.
link to original post
Perhaps that would be a good post for the PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION NOT BETTING thread. I wonder why Mike opened this thread so far in advance? I bet there's a good reason (no pun intended)

Can you explain what "churn it three or five times between now and then" means? Examples, please. Not everyone has the ability and confidence to see +EV returns on their money.

Many people invest their money longer than 398 days. Haven't/don't you?

Assuming one has proven positive returns on their investments, there's nothing wrong with a little diversification. (No?)

There's a large number of people who don't have 100% of their money invested, so moving some stagnant money to a +EV situation would be a good thing(No?)

Someone interested in both politics and +EV situations might consider it entertainment knowing they have some sweat equity, especially if it's on a candidate they are rooting for.

Many +EV sports futures are long-term investments while providing entertainment/sweat equity all season long. Ever made a futures bet?

IIRC You yourself enjoyed MaxPen's lots of money/Trump winning celebration dinner. He felt very certain he had significant +EV and didn't mind waiting a while for a big return on his significant investment.

Someone might actually benefit from having their -EV gambling bankroll locked up in a +EV situation long term.

I have noticed in the past that early election betting oftentimes leads to hedge situations where someone is able to lock up significant profits.
One can even sell their bet and get out early.

Some people have multiple ways to bet/invest WITHOUT actually locking up the money. I believe you yourself proposed a possible long-term BTC with me that I correctly pointed out may take a very long time to resolve. It was so very close to that number, I don't know if it actually hit it or not.

So I'll ask again since this thread is about PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BETTING...

Has anyone spotted any potential good bets, if so why do you believe or know that to be the case?
link to original post

Churning means just what it sounds like. Buy for $1,000, sell for $1100. Repeat several times so by next Fall, you have $1300 or so to make the bet with.
I'm sure many people don't have all their money invested. That is one reason why they are broke and live paycheck to paycheck. Why wouldn't you want all your money working for you,all the time?
If you can make a $1,000 bet now and not pay for it until a year from now, what I said doesn't apply but I don't know a way to do that. I'd be interested in learning how to do that.
I have never claimed to be an expert sports bettor. I'm explaining why I don't like long-term bets. If you find value in them that I am missing, good for you.
I do not consider gambling as a way to diversify my portfolio. Others might have a different opinion.

The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.

ams288

Threads: 22
Posts: 6515

Joined: Sep 26, 2012

October 3rd, 2023 at 5:49:37 AM permalink

�This is Going to F*ck Trump�: RFK Jr. Campaign Insider Says Independent Run Will Help Biden

Common sense.

Ding Dong the Witch is Dead

AxelWolf

Threads: 164
Posts: 22280

Joined: Oct 10, 2012

October 3rd, 2023 at 5:55:28 AM permalink

Quote: billryan
Quote: AxelWolf
Quote: billryan
If you bet $1,000 today, it's dead money until November 2024. I'd rather churn it three or five times between now and then. It's one reason why I don't like long-term betting.
link to original post
Perhaps that would be a good post for the PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION NOT BETTING thread. I wonder why Mike opened this thread so far in advance? I bet there's a good reason (no pun intended)

Can you explain what "churn it three or five times between now and then" means? Examples, please. Not everyone has the ability and confidence to see +EV returns on their money.

Many people invest their money longer than 398 days. Haven't/don't you?

Assuming one has proven positive returns on their investments, there's nothing wrong with a little diversification. (No?)

There's a large number of people who don't have 100% of their money invested, so moving some stagnant money to a +EV situation would be a good thing(No?)

Someone interested in both politics and +EV situations might consider it entertainment knowing they have some sweat equity, especially if it's on a candidate they are rooting for.

Many +EV sports futures are long-term investments while providing entertainment/sweat equity all season long. Ever made a futures bet?

IIRC You yourself enjoyed MaxPen's lots of money/Trump winning celebration dinner. He felt very certain he had significant +EV and didn't mind waiting a while for a big return on his significant investment.

Someone might actually benefit from having their -EV gambling bankroll locked up in a +EV situation long term.

I have noticed in the past that early election betting oftentimes leads to hedge situations where someone is able to lock up significant profits.
One can even sell their bet and get out early.

Some people have multiple ways to bet/invest WITHOUT actually locking up the money. I believe you yourself proposed a possible long-term BTC with me that I correctly pointed out may take a very long time to resolve. It was so very close to that number, I don't know if it actually hit it or not.

So I'll ask again since this thread is about PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BETTING...

Has anyone spotted any potential good bets, if so why do you believe or know that to be the case?
link to original post

Churning means just what it sounds like. Buy for $1,000, sell for $1100. Repeat several times so by next Fall, you have $1300 or so to make the bet with.
I'm sure many people don't have all their money invested. That is one reason why they are broke and live paycheck to paycheck. Why wouldn't you want all your money working for you,all the time?
If you can make a $1,000 bet now and not pay for it until a year from now, what I said doesn't apply but I don't know a way to do that. I'd be interested in learning how to do that.
I have never claimed to be an expert sports bettor. I'm explaining why I don't like long-term bets. If you find value in them that I am missing, good for you.
I do not consider gambling as a way to diversify my portfolio. Others might have a different opinion.
link to original post

You have a +EV situation that does that?

I assumed why most people live paycheck to paycheck is because of their lower wages and or over spending.

How does one make investment if they have no money due to a low paying paycheck to paycheck income?

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

billryan

Threads: 240
Posts: 16282

Joined: Nov 2, 2009

October 3rd, 2023 at 7:41:46 AM permalink

Quote: AxelWolf
Quote: billryan
Quote: AxelWolf
Quote: billryan
If you bet $1,000 today, it's dead money until November 2024. I'd rather churn it three or five times between now and then. It's one reason why I don't like long-term betting.
link to original post
Perhaps that would be a good post for the PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION NOT BETTING thread. I wonder why Mike opened this thread so far in advance? I bet there's a good reason (no pun intended)

Can you explain what "churn it three or five times between now and then" means? Examples, please. Not everyone has the ability and confidence to see +EV returns on their money.

Many people invest their money longer than 398 days. Haven't/don't you?

Assuming one has proven positive returns on their investments, there's nothing wrong with a little diversification. (No?)

There's a large number of people who don't have 100% of their money invested, so moving some stagnant money to a +EV situation would be a good thing(No?)

Someone interested in both politics and +EV situations might consider it entertainment knowing they have some sweat equity, especially if it's on a candidate they are rooting for.

Many +EV sports futures are long-term investments while providing entertainment/sweat equity all season long. Ever made a futures bet?

IIRC You yourself enjoyed MaxPen's lots of money/Trump winning celebration dinner. He felt very certain he had significant +EV and didn't mind waiting a while for a big return on his significant investment.

Someone might actually benefit from having their -EV gambling bankroll locked up in a +EV situation long term.

I have noticed in the past that early election betting oftentimes leads to hedge situations where someone is able to lock up significant profits.
One can even sell their bet and get out early.

Some people have multiple ways to bet/invest WITHOUT actually locking up the money. I believe you yourself proposed a possible long-term BTC with me that I correctly pointed out may take a very long time to resolve. It was so very close to that number, I don't know if it actually hit it or not.

So I'll ask again since this thread is about PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BETTING...

Has anyone spotted any potential good bets, if so why do you believe or know that to be the case?
link to original post

Churning means just what it sounds like. Buy for $1,000, sell for $1100. Repeat several times so by next Fall, you have $1300 or so to make the bet with.
I'm sure many people don't have all their money invested. That is one reason why they are broke and live paycheck to paycheck. Why wouldn't you want all your money working for you,all the time?
If you can make a $1,000 bet now and not pay for it until a year from now, what I said doesn't apply but I don't know a way to do that. I'd be interested in learning how to do that.
I have never claimed to be an expert sports bettor. I'm explaining why I don't like long-term bets. If you find value in them that I am missing, good for you.
I do not consider gambling as a way to diversify my portfolio. Others might have a different opinion.
link to original post
You have a +EV situation that does that?

I assumed why most people live paycheck to paycheck is because of their lower wages and or over spending.

How does one make investment if they have no money due to a low paying paycheck to paycheck income?
link to original post

You can save money and invest no matter how little you actually make. No one starts out with a lot of money. At that point, you should invest in yourself and build a skill that allows you to make more money, but even then, you should put aside 5% of your money. You can open an investment account with $10 these days. Can't you buy $10 worth of bitcoin?
It's an extreme example but if you bet $100 on last year's World Series winner a year out, you got back money that was only worth 90% of what you laid out. That's a mathematical fact, but I don't know how to factor it into the equation. Long-term investments factor that in, to an extent. Perhaps gamblers do as well.
If you are placing bets a year to eighteen months out, but not laying out the money for them, this isn't an issue but I don't know how to do that. If my money isn't earning it's 10%a year, I have no use for it and I'll trade it for something that will.
YMMV.
I went to get bloodwork last week. I was asked ahead of time if I'd be okay with a student watching the tech draw blood. The student was a young woman in her early 20s. She works in Jack in the Box right now but paid $650 for a three-week course that will pay her much more. In a month, her investment in herself will pay off and she will no longer have a low-paying job. It looks like there are a number of openings around the area and pay is $25-30 an hour. That is one way you can invest when you have a low-paying job.

The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.

TigerWu

Threads: 26
Posts: 5564

Joined: May 23, 2016

October 3rd, 2023 at 8:15:54 AM permalink

"Living paycheck to paycheck" is such a vague and nebulous term. Everyone has a different definition. I have plenty of money in a savings account and retirement accounts, and I'm not (currently) struggling financially at all. But technically I'm living paycheck to paycheck because if I were to miss my next paycheck, I would have to pull money out of savings to cover the bills.

A guy working a part-time minimum wage job is also living paycheck to paycheck because every cent he has goes towards the bills.

A wealthy CEO making millions a year could also be living paycheck to paycheck because he invests everything and buys multiple boats and cars and houses, but he's obviously doing just fine.

Really, if you're even somewhat financially responsible, you SHOULD be living paycheck to paycheck, because all your extra money should either be invested in some way or put towards something to make your life better. You should always be needing that next paycheck to increase your wealth, unless you're already retired or something.

That's why I think the "number of people living paycheck to paycheck" is such a meaningless statistic, because it includes a lot of wealthy or otherwise financially stable people whose lives are just fine.

EDIT: I just realized this is way off topic, so if anyone wants to comment on this it should probably be in the misc. thread.

Last edited by: TigerWu on Oct 3, 2023

billryan