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FinsRule
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September 7th, 2023 at 6:10:33 PM permalink
Itís not just polls, itís turnout. Thatís where I believe Bidenís advantage lies.

Can trump get moderates in swing states to go out and vote for him? He didnít get it done last time.

I havenít seen the evidence (yet) that he can do it. And I think we need a (more) serious economic issue for it to happen.
EvenBob
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September 7th, 2023 at 6:35:00 PM permalink
There are dozens of stories like this out there and they're growing daily. People are just sick and tired of the current Administration and they want anybody but Biden.


It does not suck to be me.
Dieter
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MichaelBluejayMission146
September 7th, 2023 at 6:37:00 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

Quote: Mission146

But, how could you possibly discuss whether the odds are good, or bad, without somewhat getting into political discussion?

The rules are vague but I think the point is to stop partisan bickering. That is, my impression is that it's fine to talk about *politics*, but it's not fine to talk about a politician, party, or issue as being good or bad. It's pretty easy to follow the rules that way.

That said, I did cross that line at one point, couldn't help myself.
link to original post


(snip!)


Unofficial: This seems correct. A flame war about (political issue) would be off topic.
I seem to recall getting busted for "politics" when I was making persuasive arguments on matters not germane to the forum.

Somewhat official: If things get out of hand, the thread will likely be closed. I understand that the mods don't generally find respectful discussion to be 'out of hand'.
May the cards fall in your favor.
unJon
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September 7th, 2023 at 9:11:41 PM permalink
Moderators should get with the Wiz and make a decision. During the midterms, the no political speech rule was loosened significantly for one thread. It worked well.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
MichaelBluejay
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September 7th, 2023 at 9:25:15 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Itís not just polls, itís turnout. Thatís where I believe Bidenís advantage lies.

Can trump get moderates in swing states to go out and vote for him? He didnít get it done last time.

But since last time, polls have shifted from Biden to Trump by 4 points. Do you think everyone who comprises that entire shift is gonna stay home next time?

Bluejay's Law is that when someone exaggerates a candidate's chances, contrary to the evidence, that person likely supports the candidate. (Part of my mission is to get people to recognize their partisan bias, on both sides.) So I'm guessing that's the case here, though you're welcome to correct me if I'm wrong.
Wizard
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MichaelBluejayDieterEvenBob
September 7th, 2023 at 9:49:42 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Moderators should get with the Wiz and make a decision. During the midterms, the no political speech rule was loosened significantly for one thread. It worked well.
link to original post



So far, everybody has been pretty well-behaved in this thread lately. I find the topic of election prediction very interesting. Let's keep it on that and the thread will remain open. Outright siding for or against either side will quickly close this thread again.
ďExtraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.Ē -- Carl Sagan
MichaelBluejay
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EvenBob
September 7th, 2023 at 10:27:31 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

So far, everybody has been pretty well-behaved in this thread lately....

You forgot to compliment my analysis.
Ace2
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MichaelBluejay
September 8th, 2023 at 12:15:56 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: FinsRule


Biden +175 or Trump +225Ö.



If I could get those odds I would be rich. Just bet both sides.
link to original post

If there were only two ďsidesĒ then youíd be right.

But the odds imply thereís about a 36% chance that neither of those two win the election.

You can get Biden +188 and Trump +240 on Betfair.

There are six other candidates with about a 5% (each) implied chance of winning, plus several more remote ones
Itís all about making that GTA
FinsRule
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September 8th, 2023 at 4:33:18 AM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

Quote: FinsRule

Itís not just polls, itís turnout. Thatís where I believe Bidenís advantage lies.

Can trump get moderates in swing states to go out and vote for him? He didnít get it done last time.

But since last time, polls have shifted from Biden to Trump by 4 points. Do you think everyone who comprises that entire shift is gonna stay home next time?

Bluejay's Law is that when someone exaggerates a candidate's chances, contrary to the evidence, that person likely supports the candidate. (Part of my mission is to get people to recognize their partisan bias, on both sides.) So I'm guessing that's the case here, though you're welcome to correct me if I'm wrong.
link to original post



Not sure what you think about Nate Silver, but he does a pretty good takedown of the ďpollsĒ that were just released.

If you donít want to go to his site, I get it. Hereís the summary. The polls are pretty much meaningless because they were Republican commissioned and itís way too early to start on this.

And if he was forced to pick, heíd give the slight edge to Biden at the moment.

Nate is very polarizing. But Iíve used his model as a starting point when political betting, and it has made me a decent amount.

As for Bluejays law, Biden is the (slight!) betting favorite also. So my thoughts are that the prediction markets are accurateÖ
lilredrooster
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September 8th, 2023 at 4:49:16 AM permalink
.
this is a poll that I don't think has been linked here so far
it shows the last poll being 9/7
it shows that nationally, Trump has just a 1% edge on Biden - 45% to 44%
but the electoral votes could be quite different

.
https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

.
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
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ams288
September 8th, 2023 at 5:21:21 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: FinsRule


Biden +175 or Trump +225Ö.



If I could get those odds I would be rich. Just bet both sides.
link to original post



Really? You lose if President Haley, President Harris, President Ramasawammy, etcÖ.. with the ages of B and T and the criminal trials going on itís not a slam dunk EITHER will be running by a year from November.
unJon
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September 8th, 2023 at 5:46:11 AM permalink
@michaelbluejay,

Can you site the 4% republican advantage vs popular vote? Iím wondering how accurate it is as a predictive measure as I assume it depends in large part on voter turnout in high population non-swing states like NY and CA.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ams288
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September 8th, 2023 at 6:28:40 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Quote: FinsRule


Biden +175 or Trump +225Ö.



If I could get those odds I would be rich. Just bet both sides.
link to original post



Really? You lose if President Haley, President Harris, President Ramasawammy, etcÖ.. with the ages of B and T and the criminal trials going on itís not a slam dunk EITHER will be running by a year from November.
link to original post



Part of the reason I think this thread is silly at this point in time. We donít know who the nominees are!

Both men are very old, and one is very fat.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
billryan
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September 8th, 2023 at 6:56:28 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

@michaelbluejay,

Can you site the 4% republican advantage vs popular vote? Iím wondering how accurate it is as a predictive measure as I assume it depends in large part on voter turnout in high population non-swing states like NY and CA.
link to original post



It's outdated research that was questionable when it was current. It argues that a Republican can win the Electoral College without winning the popular vote, while Democrats can't. As I understand it, it is a backward-looking stat, not a forward looking one. The Presidential Election is fifty individual races, the national popular vote is meaningless.
Last edited by: billryan on Sep 8, 2023
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EvenBob
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September 8th, 2023 at 8:18:39 AM permalink
Now this is interesting. The DNC is bending over backwards to try and fix it so that nobody can challenge Joe Biden in the primaries. This is particularly aimed at RFK Jr. His response to this is, if they are not going to let him enter the primaries then he feels he can really can't take money from his sponsors because it would be under false pretenses. Many people, including Democrat Insiders, are interpreting this to mean that RFK Jr is going to run as a third party candidate if he's not allowed into the primaries as a Democrat. Well-known Democrat spokespeople like Paul Begala are saying that if this happens it will take so many votes away from Joe Biden that he will not have a prayer of winning and it will take zero votes away from Donald Trump. Insiders have long been speculating that this might happen and that it's been RFK JR's intent all along. It's a fact that third party candidates always screw it up for the incumbent and always help the challenger.
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ams288
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September 8th, 2023 at 8:28:23 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Now this is interesting. The DNC is bending over backwards to try and fix it so that nobody can challenge Joe Biden in the primaries. This is particularly aimed at RFK Jr. His response to this is, if they are not going to let him enter the primaries then he feels he can really can't take money from his sponsors because it would be under false pretenses. Many people, including Democrat Insiders, are interpreting this to mean that RFK Jr is going to run as a third party candidate if he's not allowed into the primaries as a Democrat. Well-known Democrat spokespeople like Paul Begala are saying that if this happens it will take so many votes away from Joe Biden that he will not have a prayer of winning and it will take zero votes away from Donald Trump. Insiders have long been speculating that this might happen and that it's been RFK JR's intent all along. It's a fact that third party candidates always screw it up for the incumbent and always help the challenger.
link to original post



This is flawed analysis (to say the least).

The ONLY people who like RFK Jr. do not typically vote democrat. He is anti abortion. He is an extreme anti-vaxxer.

In no reality will he steal a significant number of votes from Biden.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
GenoDRPh
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September 8th, 2023 at 10:50:38 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Quote: MichaelBluejay

Quote: FinsRule

Itís not just polls, itís turnout. Thatís where I believe Bidenís advantage lies.

Can trump get moderates in swing states to go out and vote for him? He didnít get it done last time.

But since last time, polls have shifted from Biden to Trump by 4 points. Do you think everyone who comprises that entire shift is gonna stay home next time?

Bluejay's Law is that when someone exaggerates a candidate's chances, contrary to the evidence, that person likely supports the candidate. (Part of my mission is to get people to recognize their partisan bias, on both sides.) So I'm guessing that's the case here, though you're welcome to correct me if I'm wrong.
link to original post



Not sure what you think about Nate Silver, but he does a pretty good takedown of the ďpollsĒ that were just released.

If you donít want to go to his site, I get it. Hereís the summary. The polls are pretty much meaningless because they were Republican commissioned and itís way too early to start on this.

And if he was forced to pick, heíd give the slight edge to Biden at the moment.

Nate is very polarizing. But Iíve used his model as a starting point when political betting, and it has made me a decent amount.

As for Bluejays law, Biden is the (slight!) betting favorite also. So my thoughts are that the prediction markets are accurateÖ
link to original post



As an aside, and for what it's worth, ABC laid off 2/3 of 538's staff earlier this year, including Nate Silver.
EvenBob
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September 8th, 2023 at 11:13:46 AM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh



As an aside, and for what it's worth, ABC laid off 2/3 of 538's staff earlier this year, including Nate Silver.
link to original post



That's interesting considering I didn't hear that and I didn't even know Nate Silver worked for ABC/Disney. Hmmm...
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GenoDRPh
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Dieter
September 8th, 2023 at 11:28:02 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: GenoDRPh



As an aside, and for what it's worth, ABC laid off 2/3 of 538's staff earlier this year, including Nate Silver.
link to original post



That's interesting considering I didn't hear that and I didn't even know Nate Silver worked for ABC/Disney. Hmmm...
link to original post



Nate founded 538 some years ago, which through being bought and sold a few times, ended up being owned by ABC. Any 538 content since April 2023 isn't Nate's.
GenoDRPh
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September 8th, 2023 at 11:28:52 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

Quote: EvenBob

Now this is interesting. The DNC is bending over backwards to try and fix it so that nobody can challenge Joe Biden in the primaries. This is particularly aimed at RFK Jr. His response to this is, if they are not going to let him enter the primaries then he feels he can really can't take money from his sponsors because it would be under false pretenses. Many people, including Democrat Insiders, are interpreting this to mean that RFK Jr is going to run as a third party candidate if he's not allowed into the primaries as a Democrat. Well-known Democrat spokespeople like Paul Begala are saying that if this happens it will take so many votes away from Joe Biden that he will not have a prayer of winning and it will take zero votes away from Donald Trump. Insiders have long been speculating that this might happen and that it's been RFK JR's intent all along. It's a fact that third party candidates always screw it up for the incumbent and always help the challenger.
link to original post



This is flawed analysis (to say the least).

The ONLY people who like RFK Jr. do not typically vote democrat. He is anti abortion. He is an extreme anti-vaxxer.

In no reality will he steal a significant number of votes from Biden.
link to original post



Could Cornell West siphon enough votes from Biden to swing a razor-thin election to the other direction?
EvenBob
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Dieter
September 8th, 2023 at 11:46:26 AM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh



Could Cornell West siphon enough votes from Biden to swing a razor-thin election to the other direction?
link to original post



The funny thing is we're all acting like Joe Biden's going to be the nominee. Poll after poll is showing that a majority of his own party doesn't even want him to run again. And without even mentioning here what's obvious to everybody on both sides, maybe we should be talking more about who is going to be the Democrat nominee. Because frankly I think there's a razor-thin chance that it will even be Joe Biden. The election is a long way off and when you're 81 years old, things generally tend to go downhill and not uphill especially if you have pre-existing conditions. I think this is what we should be discussing, it's the elephant in the room. What are Trump's chances against a candidate other than Joe Biden.
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MichaelBluejay
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September 8th, 2023 at 11:59:43 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Not sure what you think about Nate Silver, but he does a pretty good takedown of the ďpollsĒ that were just released. If you donít want to go to his site, I get it. The polls are pretty much meaningless because they were Republican commissioned and itís way too early to start on this. link to original post

Why *wouldn't* I want to go to his site? Except that you didn't provide a link to whatever article you were talking about, and I couldn't find anything on his site dismissing polls (what polls?) because they were Republican-commissioned.

Quote: unJon

@michaelbluejay, Can you site the 4% republican advantage vs popular vote? Iím wondering how accurate it is as a predictive measure as I assume it depends in large part on voter turnout in high population non-swing states like NY and CA. link to original post

You're right, it's not a hard and fast rule. Here's how I figured it: Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.5 pts but lost the electoral college significantly. In 2020 he won the popular vote by 4.5 pts but just squeaked by in the electoral college, winning three states by 0.63 points or less. Let's take 0.32 pts off his 2020 margin, giving him a 4.18-pt popular win. Let's also say that the 0.32-pt shift happens uniformly in the swing states. That flips these two states:

Georgia ē Biden +0.24 in 2020 ē Biden -0.08 in 2024
Arizona ē Biden +0.31 in 2020 ē Biden -0.01 in 2024

That gives Biden a razor-thin electoral college win of 276 votes, courtesy of a razor-thin win of Wisconsin by 0.31 pts.

If instead of taking 0.32 its of Biden's 2020 margin, instead we take 0.64 pts off, giving him a 3.86-pt popular win, he also loses Wisconsin and the election.

Conclusion: All things being equal, Biden wins re-election with ≥3.87-pt popular vote win, and loses with ≤3.86-pt. popular vote win.

Of course isn't precise. I'm not saying it is. But it's almost certainly very close.
Last edited by: MichaelBluejay on Sep 12, 2023
GenoDRPh
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September 8th, 2023 at 12:10:21 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: GenoDRPh



Could Cornell West siphon enough votes from Biden to swing a razor-thin election to the other direction?
link to original post



The funny thing is we're all acting like Joe Biden's going to be the nominee. Poll after poll is showing that a majority of his own party doesn't even want him to run again. And without even mentioning here what's obvious to everybody on both sides, maybe we should be talking more about who is going to be the Democrat nominee. Because frankly I think there's a razor-thin chance that it will even be Joe Biden. The election is a long way off and when you're 81 years old, things generally tend to go downhill and not uphill especially if you have pre-existing conditions. I think this is what we should be discussing, it's the elephant in the room. What are Trump's chances against a candidate other than Joe Biden.
link to original post



So who will be the Dem nominee? Williamson? Harris? Robert Jr? And what is a razor-thin chance? For reference, actuarial tables give Biden a 67% chance to live through the end of his second, and Trump a 73% chance of doing the same. Do you postulate Biden being too infirm or too dead to make it until the nomination, at least?
EvenBob
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September 8th, 2023 at 1:04:28 PM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh

Do you postulate Biden being too infirm or too dead to make it until the nomination, at least?
link to original post



How much are we allowed to say in this thread. Is there anybody who's paying even the slightest bit of attention who doesn't know what's going on with Joe Biden? Would he be a serious candidate to run anything in the condition he's in, let alone the presidency. So yeah, who's really going to be the candidate next year. This has nothing to do with politics, this just has to do with plain old facts. Ever have a grandpa who every time you saw him was worse off than the last time you saw him? You really want him babysitting your grandkids all by himself? Let alone anything more strenuous. This is the elephant in the room and everybody knows it.
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Dieter
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September 8th, 2023 at 1:04:28 PM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh


So who will be the Dem nominee? Williamson? Harris? Robert Jr? And what is a razor-thin chance? For reference, actuarial tables give Biden a 67% chance to live through the end of his second, and Trump a 73% chance of doing the same. Do you postulate Biden being too infirm or too dead to make it until the nomination, at least?
link to original post



I do not believe actuarial tables incorporate enough data on octogenarian Presidents to be meaningful.
I reasonably expect that a sitting President's lifestyle differs enough from a typical 80-something's to make a difference.
May the cards fall in your favor.
GenoDRPh
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September 8th, 2023 at 1:52:15 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: GenoDRPh


So who will be the Dem nominee? Williamson? Harris? Robert Jr? And what is a razor-thin chance? For reference, actuarial tables give Biden a 67% chance to live through the end of his second, and Trump a 73% chance of doing the same. Do you postulate Biden being too infirm or too dead to make it until the nomination, at least?
link to original post



I do not believe actuarial tables incorporate enough data on octogenarian Presidents to be meaningful.
I reasonably expect that a sitting President's lifestyle differs enough from a typical 80-something's to make a difference.
link to original post



And you would be correct. Indeed, the lifestyle of octogenarian Presidents lends itself to a longer lifespan than the rest of us.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/is-biden-too-old-to-be-president-is-trump/
EvenBob
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September 8th, 2023 at 3:01:00 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: GenoDRPh


So who will be the Dem nominee? Williamson? Harris? Robert Jr? And what is a razor-thin chance? For reference, actuarial tables give Biden a 67% chance to live through the end of his second, and Trump a 73% chance of doing the same. Do you postulate Biden being too infirm or too dead to make it until the nomination, at least?
link to original post



I do not believe actuarial tables incorporate enough data on octogenarian Presidents to be meaningful.
I reasonably expect that a sitting President's lifestyle differs enough from a typical 80-something's to make a difference.
link to original post



Every president since Carter has said the same thing, that being president aged them 10 years. It's the stress, and the older you get the less you can handle stress. Both Biden and Trump are too damn old, but what are you going to do. Unless something changes we're stuck with them.
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ThatDonGuy
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September 8th, 2023 at 3:27:49 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: FinsRule


Biden +175 or Trump +225Ö.



If I could get those odds I would be rich. Just bet both sides.
link to original post


You can get about a -200 combined bet by betting Biden and Trump in a 13:11 ratio. Of course, that assumes that one of them actually gets elected.
EvenBob
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September 8th, 2023 at 3:46:35 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: DRich

Quote: FinsRule


Biden +175 or Trump +225Ö.



If I could get those odds I would be rich. Just bet both sides.
link to original post


You can get about a -200 combined bet by betting Biden and Trump in a 13:11 ratio. Of course, that assumes that one of them actually gets elected.
link to original post



Which at this point is the actual long shot. LOL
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DRich
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ams288
September 8th, 2023 at 3:52:04 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: DRich

Quote: FinsRule


Biden +175 or Trump +225Ö.



If I could get those odds I would be rich. Just bet both sides.
link to original post


You can get about a -200 combined bet by betting Biden and Trump in a 13:11 ratio. Of course, that assumes that one of them actually gets elected.
link to original post



Which at this point is the actual long shot. LOL
link to original post



Do you really think that is a longshot? I would say that is clearly the favorite. I sure wish you would bet on your assessments.
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gordonm888
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September 8th, 2023 at 4:13:37 PM permalink
Trump is the most polarizing candidate I have ever seen. If he is the GOP nominee, IMO it doesn't matter who the other candidates are, it doesn't matter if Biden has a stroke while campaigning. The election will come down to a referendum on Donald Trump. The Democrat voters hate him, most of the mass media hate him and various district attorneys are trying to pull him down. The Democrat Party voter turnout would be extremely high. I think that Trump would lose versus any candidate - I don't think he could beat Dianne Feinstein in a Nov 2024 general election. Just my opinion.

If Trump doesn't run and Biden does, the election will become a referendum on Biden. Of course, Biden's negatives are his age and his apparent mental decline, his corruption, and the inflation that has already occurred. If Biden has a younger opponent who is credible, I think he would probably lose that election. Just my views from Sept 2023.
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EvenBob
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September 8th, 2023 at 4:21:33 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: DRich

Quote: FinsRule


Biden +175 or Trump +225Ö.



If I could get those odds I would be rich. Just bet both sides.
link to original post


You can get about a -200 combined bet by betting Biden and Trump in a 13:11 ratio. Of course, that assumes that one of them actually gets elected.
link to original post



Which at this point is the actual long shot. LOL
link to original post



Do you really think that is a longshot? I would say that is clearly the favorite. I sure wish you would bet on your assessments.
link to original post



The long shot is assuming that either one of them is going to get elected
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FinsRule
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MichaelBluejay
September 8th, 2023 at 4:32:26 PM permalink
No offense was meant to be given Mr. Bluejay. Some people just hate Nate Silver.

Here is the link: https://substack.com/@natesilver

Iím not real tech savvy and didnít know rules about links and stuff.

Hope this works.
GenoDRPh
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September 8th, 2023 at 5:12:37 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: GenoDRPh

Do you postulate Biden being too infirm or too dead to make it until the nomination, at least?
link to original post



How much are we allowed to say in this thread. Is there anybody who's paying even the slightest bit of attention who doesn't know what's going on with Joe Biden? Would he be a serious candidate to run anything in the condition he's in, let alone the presidency. So yeah, who's really going to be the candidate next year. This has nothing to do with politics, this just has to do with plain old facts. Ever have a grandpa who every time you saw him was worse off than the last time you saw him? You really want him babysitting your grandkids all by himself? Let alone anything more strenuous. This is the elephant in the room and everybody knows it.
link to original post



Both my parents are the same age as Biden. Both are college educated (Mom BE in Business Education, Dad BS in Accounting and MBA). Both had careers. Mom has arthritis with limits her mobility and Dad stopped doing triathlons justa few years ago. Both still have all their marbles. That's what I use as the benchmark.
EvenBob
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September 8th, 2023 at 5:12:38 PM permalink
"It's gonna be a very long and exceptionally tedious road to November 2024
There are two strategies to stay sane: ignore the horse race for now, or pace yourself. There are exactly four things you need to know about the horse race right now:

Joe Biden could win.

Donald Trump could win.

Someone other than Biden or Trump could win.

The odds of these scenarios do not shift very much from day to day." Nate Silver

Exactly what I've been saying.
It does not suck to be me.
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
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September 8th, 2023 at 7:57:14 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

The Democrat voters hate him...The Democrat Party voter turnout...

Biden's negatives are ...his corruption...link to original post

This has crossed the line into political speech, for two reasons.

First, "Democrat Party" is an epithet used by Republicans. The actual, proper name of the party is the Democratic Party.

Second, Biden hasn't been indicted for corruption, and no evidence of corruption has even been put forth, and even some Republicans acknowledge that:

Quote: HuffPost

The only problem is that after delving through hundreds of bank records obtained by subpoena, and hours of witness testimony, Republicans have not actually produced evidence that Biden was involved with his sonís deals in Ukraine or China.

As Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) put it on Wednesday, in response to a question about whether his colleaguesí investigations had implicated the president: ďI donít think that evidence has been presented.Ē
https://news.yahoo.com/majority-americans-believe-unproven-allegations-191747694.html

In the absence of any actual evidence about President Biden's alleged corruption, referring to "his corruption" as a fact is clearly political.
Last edited by: MichaelBluejay on Sep 8, 2023
unJon
unJon
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September 8th, 2023 at 8:04:44 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

Quote: FinsRule

Not sure what you think about Nate Silver, but he does a pretty good takedown of the ďpollsĒ that were just released. If you donít want to go to his site, I get it. The polls are pretty much meaningless because they were Republican commissioned and itís way too early to start on this. link to original post

Why *wouldn't* I want to go to his site? Except that you didn't provide a link to whatever article you were talking about, and I couldn't find anything on his site dismissing polls (what polls?) because they were Republican-commissioned.

Quote: unJon

@michaelbluejay, Can you site the 4% republican advantage vs popular vote? Iím wondering how accurate it is as a predictive measure as I assume it depends in large part on voter turnout in high population non-swing states like NY and CA. link to original post

You're right, it's not a hard and fast rule. Here's how I figured it: Biden won the popular vote in 2016 by 2.5 pts but lost the electoral college significantly. In 2020 he won the popular vote by 4.5 pts but just squeaked by in the electoral college, winning three states by 0.63 points or less. Let's take 0.32 pts off his 2020 margin, giving him a 4.18-pt popular win. Let's also say that the 0.32-pt shift happens uniformly in the swing states. That flips these two states:

Georgia ē Biden +0.24 in 2020 ē Biden -0.08 in 2024
Arizona ē Biden +0.31 in 2020 ē Biden -0.01 in 2024

That gives Biden a razor-thin electoral college win of 276 votes, courtesy of a razor-thin win of Wisconsin by 0.31 pts.

If instead of taking 0.32 its of Biden's 2020 margin, instead we take 0.64 pts off, giving him a 3.86-pt popular win, he also loses Wisconsin and the election.

Conclusion: All things being equal, Biden wins re-election with ≥3.87-pt popular vote win, and loses with ≤3.86-pt. popular vote win.

Of course isn't precise. I'm not saying it is. But it's almost certainly very close.
link to original post



Itís an interesting question. If Biden loses a point (for example) in the National polls, is that likely to come equally from in-play states vs out of play states (deeply red and deeply blue)? Iím not sure. Feels like thereís data out there that itís a testable hypothesis should someone want to crunch numbers.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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September 8th, 2023 at 8:06:53 PM permalink
RCP from 4 days ago has the race in a dead heat. How will this affect what the odds makers do.

It does not suck to be me.
Ace2
Ace2
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September 8th, 2023 at 8:11:15 PM permalink
Currently the lay (to not win) odds are 2.94 and 3.45 for Biden and Trump respectively.

So if you wanted to make a $100 bet at +170 that neither of them win, you could accomplish this by laying Biden for $178.34 and also laying Trump for $191.93. Seems like youíre staking more than $100 but youíre not since some action cancels. Your net loss is $100 if either get elected and you win a total of $170 if neither do. 37% implied probability that neither get elected

You could also accomplish this by backing every candidate except B/T, but there are over a hundred listed on Betfair. Also, thereís no guarantee that some dark horse candidate appears/wins that isnít even listed yet
Itís all about making that GTA
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
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unJon
September 8th, 2023 at 8:31:35 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Itís an interesting question. If Biden loses a point (for example) in the National polls, is that likely to come equally from in-play states vs out of play states (deeply red and deeply blue)? Iím not sure. Feels like thereís data out there that itís a testable hypothesis should someone want to crunch numbers.
link to original post

I agree that the best analysis is to look at only the swing state polls, not national polls. That's exactly what I did with my Google Docs spreadsheet. To save you the visit, as of today I'm showing 276-262 for Biden, but (1) we don't have super-good state polling data yet, and (2) the election is still a long way away.
unJon
unJon
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September 8th, 2023 at 8:47:25 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

Quote: unJon

Itís an interesting question. If Biden loses a point (for example) in the National polls, is that likely to come equally from in-play states vs out of play states (deeply red and deeply blue)? Iím not sure. Feels like thereís data out there that itís a testable hypothesis should someone want to crunch numbers.
link to original post

I agree that the best analysis is to look at only the swing state polls, not national polls. That's exactly what I did with my Google Docs spreadsheet. To save you the visit, as of today I'm showing 276-262 for Biden, but (1) we don't have super-good state polling data yet, and (2) the election is still a long way away.
link to original post



Agree. I was wondering about a predictive regression where X% change a National poll predicts Y% change in a swing state.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
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September 8th, 2023 at 9:18:53 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

No offense was meant to be given Mr. Bluejay.

None taken.

Quote: FinsRule

Here is the link: https://substack.com/@natesilver
link to original post

That's just a list of articles. Which article are you talking about?
FinsRule
FinsRule
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September 9th, 2023 at 3:06:59 AM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

Quote: FinsRule

No offense was meant to be given Mr. Bluejay.

None taken.

Quote: FinsRule

Here is the link: https://substack.com/@natesilver
link to original post

That's just a list of articles. Which article are you talking about?
link to original post



Top one
billryan
billryan
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OnceDear
September 9th, 2023 at 6:45:56 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Trump is the most polarizing candidate I have ever seen. If he is the GOP nominee, IMO it doesn't matter who the other candidates are, it doesn't matter if Biden has a stroke while campaigning. The election will come down to a referendum on Donald Trump. The Democrat voters hate him, most of the mass media hate him and various district attorneys are trying to pull him down. The Democrat Party voter turnout would be extremely high. I think that Trump would lose versus any candidate - I don't think he could beat Dianne Feinstein in a Nov 2024 general election. Just my opinion.

If Trump doesn't run and Biden does, the election will become a referendum on Biden. Of course, Biden's negatives are his age and his apparent mental decline, his corruption, and the inflation that has already occurred. If Biden has a younger opponent who is credible, I think he would probably lose that election. Just my views from Sept 2023.
link to original post



Is this the type of non-political post that is acceptable? Calling the President corrupt? Using right-wing talking points about an alleged mental decline? Fair and balanced? Correct? If a member posted this, they would rightfully be suspended.
As an ancient agitator once asked- Who watches the watchmen?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter
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September 9th, 2023 at 7:12:16 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: gordonm888

Trump is the most polarizing candidate I have ever seen. If he is the GOP nominee, IMO it doesn't matter who the other candidates are, it doesn't matter if Biden has a stroke while campaigning. The election will come down to a referendum on Donald Trump. The Democrat voters hate him, most of the mass media hate him and various district attorneys are trying to pull him down. The Democrat Party voter turnout would be extremely high. I think that Trump would lose versus any candidate - I don't think he could beat Dianne Feinstein in a Nov 2024 general election. Just my opinion.

If Trump doesn't run and Biden does, the election will become a referendum on Biden. Of course, Biden's negatives are his age and his apparent mental decline, his corruption, and the inflation that has already occurred. If Biden has a younger opponent who is credible, I think he would probably lose that election. Just my views from Sept 2023.
link to original post



Is this the type of non-political post that is acceptable? Calling the President corrupt? Using right-wing talking points about an alleged mental decline? Fair and balanced? Correct? If a member posted this, they would rightfully be suspended.
As an ancient agitator once asked- Who watches the watchmen?
link to original post



It has not gone unnoticed.
Case by case basis. A bit of leeway in this thread, so long as things stay cordial.
May the cards fall in your favor.
DRich
DRich
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FinsRule
September 9th, 2023 at 7:30:35 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob



The long shot is assuming that either one of them is going to get elected



If you really believed that you would bet it. Give me only 2 to 1 odds and I will bet any amount that you want.

My guess is that you don't really believe that.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
gordonm888
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MichaelBluejay
September 9th, 2023 at 8:30:06 AM permalink
Hey, let me say that it was my mistake about the name of the Democratic Party, I honestly believed the legal name of the Party was the Democrat Party. I believe I was taught that in Junior High School in Queens NY. I have looked it up and I am wrong, it is indeed the Democratic Party. I had no idea that there was any issue of apparent bias about the name; I am innocent of any intention to denigrate the Democratic Party*. I apologize for my error or ignorance in that regard. I am sorry.

I meant only to list the issues about Biden that I thought would cost him votes in the polls without discussing the merits (or lack thereof) of those issues. I guess I could have been lawyerly and used the adjectives "apparent" and "alleged" but I was trying to be telegraphic as I listed what I think would be the top three voter anti-Biden issues in Nov 2024. Again, I wanted to avoid any discussion about why those issues are currently being identified by some voters (of both parties) as concerns and are being cited by some pollsters.

*By way of full disclosure from 2009 -2012 I worked for the federal government as a senior scientist in the office of a national security official who reported directly to President Obama.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
billryan
billryan
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September 9th, 2023 at 8:33:57 AM permalink
The US Census shows some 650,000 Americans over 80 still work, and almost half work full-time.

I do think the time has come to discuss age limits for politicians, justices, and judges.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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September 9th, 2023 at 10:19:54 PM permalink
New CNN poll has 67% of Democrats wanting anybody but Biden to be their candidate. How do you ignore that number. 39% approval rating and no president has ever been elected to a second term with less than 50% approval. These two stats get worse and worse as time goes on. How is this going to affect what betting odds are, does it have any effect at all?

It does not suck to be me.
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
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September 9th, 2023 at 11:41:25 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Quote: MichaelBluejay

Quote: FinsRule

No offense was meant to be given Mr. Bluejay.

None taken.

Quote: FinsRule

Here is the link: https://substack.com/@natesilver
link to original post

That's just a list of articles. Which article are you talking about?
link to original post



Top one
link to original post

You do realize that "top one" can change between the time that you refer to that page, and the time someone actually visits it, right?

In any event, the top article was the 9/8/23 "It's gonna be a very long and exceptionally tedious road to November 2024", and I saw no mention of recent polls being biased.

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