ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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May 19th, 2019 at 10:25:18 PM permalink
Hi,

In the upcoming 2020 Election, there are two sportsbooks*** with the following odds below:

Book A has Joe Biden to win 2020 Election @ +500 ($6.00)
Book B has field vs Joe Biden @ -335.
Edge: about +6.75%

***: Book A is in AUD, and Book B is in USD.

Do you think there is more "value" in betting Joe @ $6 or field @ -335, since I don't think there is enough edge to overcome the currency exchange costs, (if i bet on both outcomes)?

thanks
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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May 19th, 2019 at 11:18:26 PM permalink
It's not really knowable at this point. But here's my take anyway.

I was 100% sure that a black dude named Barak Hussein Obama, running as a Democrat, could not become president. (I figured a pre-disgraced Colin Powell as a Rep would have a shot. But LOL at this Barak guy.)

Then, I was 100% sure that a doofus reality TV star with no political experience would never be allowed to win the Republican nomination, particularly because he opposed The Party on issues that were very important to them, like trade. I was sure they'd figure out some way to undermine him.

So... probably do the opposite of what I say.

But, I see Biden kind of as Hillary 2.0. He is a corporate/party shill who openly opposes the interests of most voters. (Pro war. Pro mass incarceration. Pro Wall Street. Anti health care. Pro student debt. etc. etc.) While Hillary was a black hole of charisma, Biden is pretty charming. But this is offset by all the videos of him licking little girls on the forehead.

I'd make him a narrow favorite over Trump. He just isn't as repugnant a human being as Hillary, so voting for him wouldn't be quite as agonizing. He is well ahead of Trump in polls. Trump has alienated a lot of people outside of his hard core base. Also, Biden agrees with moderate Republicans on more issues than not. So those put off by Trump's boorishness, economic polcies and whatever could conceivably cross over.

But when I searched for the polls I saw an NYT article called, "Does Anyone Actually Want Biden To Be President?" That's sort of his problem. There are a few, older, Democrats who are loyal to the party in the way one is loyal to a sports team and they are the only ones who like Biden and Hillary. Aprox zero people under 40 like them. They have no message, no appeal and openly run on policies that are hostile to their own base.

So, Biden would suffer from the same problem Hillary did in that, even people who prefer him, will not be pumped up to go out and vote. "I'm a POS, but at least I'm not that other POS," just isn't a very compelling message.

I think it's going to be MUCH harder for the Dems to rig the primaries this time around. The cat's out of the bag. The initial primaries aren't going to just be between the pre chosen candidate and a couple guys nobody has heard of yet. The premise that a "qualified" shill has to be the nominee because their are "electable" was utterly discredited in the most recent election. It was proven that nobody is less electable. And you've got 4 more years of old people who rely on newspapers dying off and 4 more years of young people who can find their own info becoming voters.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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May 20th, 2019 at 2:37:33 AM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

It's not really knowable at this point. But here's my take anyway.

I was 100% sure that a black dude named Barak Hussein Obama, running as a Democrat, could not become president. (I figured a pre-disgraced Colin Powell as a Rep would have a shot. But LOL at this Barak guy.)

Then, I was 100% sure that a doofus reality TV star with no political experience would never be allowed to win the Republican nomination, particularly because he opposed The Party on issues that were very important to them, like trade. I was sure they'd figure out some way to undermine him.

So... probably do the opposite of what I say.

But, I see Biden kind of as Hillary 2.0. He is a corporate/party shill who openly opposes the interests of most voters. (Pro war. Pro mass incarceration. Pro Wall Street. Anti health care. Pro student debt. etc. etc.) While Hillary was a black hole of charisma, Biden is pretty charming. But this is offset by all the videos of him licking little girls on the forehead.

I'd make him a narrow favorite over Trump. He just isn't as repugnant a human being as Hillary, so voting for him wouldn't be quite as agonizing. He is well ahead of Trump in polls. Trump has alienated a lot of people outside of his hard core base. Also, Biden agrees with moderate Republicans on more issues than not. So those put off by Trump's boorishness, economic polcies and whatever could conceivably cross over.

But when I searched for the polls I saw an NYT article called, "Does Anyone Actually Want Biden To Be President?" That's sort of his problem. There are a few, older, Democrats who are loyal to the party in the way one is loyal to a sports team and they are the only ones who like Biden and Hillary. Aprox zero people under 40 like them. They have no message, no appeal and openly run on policies that are hostile to their own base.

So, Biden would suffer from the same problem Hillary did in that, even people who prefer him, will not be pumped up to go out and vote. "I'm a POS, but at least I'm not that other POS," just isn't a very compelling message.

I think it's going to be MUCH harder for the Dems to rig the primaries this time around. The cat's out of the bag. The initial primaries aren't going to just be between the pre chosen candidate and a couple guys nobody has heard of yet. The premise that a "qualified" shill has to be the nominee because their are "electable" was utterly discredited in the most recent election. It was proven that nobody is less electable. And you've got 4 more years of old people who rely on newspapers dying off and 4 more years of young people who can find their own info becoming voters.



I think a lot of what happens will depend on several things.

If Biden continues to dominate, who he picks for a running mate will become a critical factor.

If I were Biden, and continuing to lead into Super Tuesday, I would pick Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren for a running mate.

Either one is most likely to be replaced by another Democrat if they are elected, holding that Senate seat.

Either one is more progressive than Biden, and both appeal to the Dem base.

IMO, the Dems need to be very careful to keep and increase their Senate seats. As bad as Trump is, the enabling of the Republican Senate has magnified his excesses. So otherwise worthy candidates in purple states, like Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bennet (two I like very much), are needed to stay in the Senate.

Pete Buttigieg is a real wild card. I don't know how to figure him into this. I hope to God they get Bernie out of the way - what a nightmare he is. I don't see Beto or Booker or any of the others to be a serious factor by next spring. Of course, I could be wrong.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
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May 20th, 2019 at 4:08:44 AM permalink
Biden should not go with Warren thatís a huge mistake I think, Warren is simply too old to pair with him that would bury his ticket with independent younger voters who will just end up staying home then IMO. Sheís not THAT old herself, itís that Bidenís too old and then youíve got two people 70+ on the same ticket one closer to 80 that is just crazy and off putting to think about. And the two things sheís currently best known for to people who donít know her that well are lying or intentionally misleading about her heritage and her batshit crazy student loan forgiveness proposal.
heatmap
heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
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May 20th, 2019 at 4:50:14 AM permalink
To continue the plan of Zionism : Bet on trump

To contiue with Hillary's plan and zionism : Bet on Biden
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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May 20th, 2019 at 6:29:19 AM permalink
Elizabeth Warren needs to go away. She has no shot. Clinton 2.0
Boz
Boz
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May 20th, 2019 at 6:34:39 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Elizabeth Warren needs to go away. She has no shot. Clinton 2.0



Itís good Hillary isnít a member here because that is a huge insult to her.
TigerWu
TigerWu
Joined: May 23, 2016
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May 20th, 2019 at 8:21:37 AM permalink
I feel like Biden is a good 10-15 years late to the President game. I'm amazed he's being given such good odds. I think if it came down to Trump and Biden, Trump would win. Biden would get the "anybody but Trump" votes, but not much else.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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May 20th, 2019 at 8:30:50 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Hi,

In the upcoming 2020 Election, there are two sportsbooks*** with the following odds below:

Book A has Joe Biden to win 2020 Election @ +500 ($6.00)
Book B has field vs Joe Biden @ -335.
Edge: about +6.75%

***: Book A is in AUD, and Book B is in USD.

Do you think there is more "value" in betting Joe @ $6 or field @ -335, since I don't think there is enough edge to overcome the currency exchange costs, (if i bet on both outcomes)?

thanks



Please make sure both are to win the election, not just the nomination. I don't think you can get the 'field' at -335. but I could be wrong.

If those are the actual lines you can get, I would be stunned if 'currency exchange costs' would be high enough to not make the middle +EV. (I guess you also have to figure in the lost opportunity cost of not having the money for 1.5 years, as well as the chance the internet based bet disappears when you win.)
TigerWu
TigerWu
Joined: May 23, 2016
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May 20th, 2019 at 8:32:38 AM permalink
I've got a bet with somebody on here that Trump is not even going to be the Republican nominee for 2020.

Anybody have the odds on that?

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