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TigerWu
TigerWu
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October 25th, 2023 at 6:06:49 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

And this is before the reparations announcement.

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And before his lawyers and Mark Meadows flipped on him.
billryan
billryan
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SOOPOORogerKint
October 25th, 2023 at 6:46:05 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: billryan

I never thought it was possible, but after today, I believe trump is prison-bound.
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Care to wager on that position?
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Let's make it enjoyable. If I win, I get to ban one member of this forum. Anyone I chose. What would you want in return?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TigerWu
TigerWu
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October 25th, 2023 at 7:26:10 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Let's make it enjoyable. If I win, I get to ban one member of this forum. Anyone I chose. What would you want in return?
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Oh, I like where this is going....

billryan
billryan
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October 25th, 2023 at 7:37:41 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: billryan

Let's make it enjoyable. If I win, I get to ban one member of this forum. Anyone I chose. What would you want in return?
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Oh, I like where this is going....


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If you are going to dream, dream big.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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October 25th, 2023 at 8:56:54 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: Wizard

Quote: billryan

I never thought it was possible, but after today, I believe trump is prison-bound.
link to original post



Care to wager on that position?
link to original post



Let's make it enjoyable. If I win, I get to ban one member of this forum. Anyone I chose. What would you want in return?
link to original post

It will never happen unless you get that one member to agree as well.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
billryan
billryan
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October 25th, 2023 at 10:07:18 AM permalink
One can only hope. I'm pretty sure Marcia Clarke didn't want to be banned.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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October 25th, 2023 at 10:13:34 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: Wizard

Quote: billryan

I never thought it was possible, but after today, I believe trump is prison-bound.
link to original post



Care to wager on that position?
link to original post



Let's make it enjoyable. If I win, I get to ban one member of this forum. Anyone I chose. What would you want in return?
link to original post



Offer $270. Amount of electoral votes to win Presidency. I have to say if these terms are accepted by Wiz Iíd be more interested in this bet than any otherÖ!

Way to go, Billy! (Iíll offer you $2 not to ban meÖ.)
FinsRule
FinsRule
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October 25th, 2023 at 10:27:46 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here are the Pinnacle odds on the winning party:

Dem: -129
Rep: +103
Other: 3338

If we squeeze out the juice, that implies the probabilities are:

Dem: 54.85%
Rep: 42.33%
Other: 2.83%
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I donít believe Trump is a clear favorite. But I will stop arguing the point.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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October 25th, 2023 at 10:36:10 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Quote: Wizard

Here are the Pinnacle odds on the winning party:

Dem: -129
Rep: +103
Other: 3338

If we squeeze out the juice, that implies the probabilities are:

Dem: 54.85%
Rep: 42.33%
Other: 2.83%
link to original post



I donít believe Trump is a clear favorite. But I will stop arguing the point.
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To me, in NO WAY is Trump the favorite to win the election. He Ďmightí be a slight favorite to win the election if it were held today, but as many have pointed out the election that matters isnít for a full year. One can EASILY see that there are many more possibilities for negatives for Trump to Ďpop upí. Bidenís plethora of negatives are already out there. He can only BENEFIT if there is a semblance of a real border policy, or a decrease in inflation, or a few more Trump indictments/convictions.

Iím still open for business on the ĎTrump will not be President againí bet.
TigerWu
TigerWu
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October 25th, 2023 at 10:49:56 AM permalink
Mike Johnson is the new House Speaker.

He's an election denier and about as far-right as it gets, not to mention the most inexperienced House Speaker in 140 years.

Will be "interesting" to see where this goes.
TigerWu
TigerWu
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October 25th, 2023 at 10:53:38 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


To me, in NO WAY is Trump the favorite to win the election. He Ďmightí be a slight favorite to win the election if it were held today, but as many have pointed out the election that matters isnít for a full year. One can EASILY see that there are many more possibilities for negatives for Trump to Ďpop upí. Bidenís plethora of negatives are already out there. He can only BENEFIT if there is a semblance of a real border policy, or a decrease in inflation, or a few more Trump indictments/convictions.
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I agree. There is nowhere for Trump to go but down. I think he's barely holding on to what support he has, and he's doing absolutely nothing to gain any more support.

The only thing that could possibly hurt Biden right now is some major health issue, or if he just dies.

I think Trump could still win, but he has a lot more to lose before the election.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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October 25th, 2023 at 11:17:03 AM permalink
I still wouldn't bet on the gov't staying open after Nov. 17th. This new guy voted against the 45 day CR, but he did vote to avert the debt default, so that just leaves me totally confused this time around.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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October 25th, 2023 at 11:45:48 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Mike Johnson is the new House Speaker.
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He didn't even decide to run until Saturday night. He immediately got Trump's endorsement and 4 days later he's Speaker of the House. Trump just came out a few minutes ago and made a brief statement about what a great thing they just did in electing Johnson.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
billryan
billryan
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October 25th, 2023 at 1:05:55 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: TigerWu

Mike Johnson is the new House Speaker.
link to original post



He didn't even decide to run until Saturday night. He immediately got Trump's endorsement and 4 days later he's Speaker of the House. Trump just came out a few minutes ago and made a brief statement about what a great thing they just did in electing Johnson.
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And this impressive? How? Do you think having one of the main election deniers in charge of the House will work well?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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October 25th, 2023 at 5:56:06 PM permalink
Is there a site that we can bet on a shutdown? I think itís going to happen.
DRich
DRich
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October 25th, 2023 at 6:36:45 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Is there a site that we can bet on a shutdown? I think itís going to happen.
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My question would be how long would you bet the shutdown lasts.? I would put the over.under at 12 days.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
TigerWu
TigerWu
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MichaelBluejay
October 26th, 2023 at 9:29:10 AM permalink
Has anyone found any betting odds regarding the (natural) death of either Trump or Biden? They're both fairly old and it could easily be argued neither one is in the best of health...

I looked at the Social Security actuarial tables and found these statistics:

Trump is 77. Life expectancy is about another 9 years. Odds of dying within one year is 4.9%, or about 1 in 20.

Biden is 80. Life expectancy is about another 7.8 years. Odds of dying within one year is 6.5%, or about 1 in 15.

If you ask me, those aren't exactly negligible odds...
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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October 26th, 2023 at 12:16:21 PM permalink
Life expectancy is down at all ages because of COVID. It could be as low as 6 weeks.
Deucekies
Deucekies
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October 26th, 2023 at 12:21:09 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

I looked at the Social Security actuarial tables and found these statistics:

Trump is 77. Life expectancy is about another 9 years. Odds of dying within one year is 4.9%, or about 1 in 20.

Biden is 80. Life expectancy is about another 7.8 years. Odds of dying within one year is 6.5%, or about 1 in 15.


Those are the odds for the average American, right? I'm sure the stress that comes with being the President, and the stress of legal proceedings, are taking a toll on both of their healths as well.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
TigerWu
TigerWu
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October 26th, 2023 at 2:25:14 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

Quote: TigerWu

I looked at the Social Security actuarial tables and found these statistics:

Trump is 77. Life expectancy is about another 9 years. Odds of dying within one year is 4.9%, or about 1 in 20.

Biden is 80. Life expectancy is about another 7.8 years. Odds of dying within one year is 6.5%, or about 1 in 15.


Those are the odds for the average American, right? I'm sure the stress that comes with being the President, and the stress of legal proceedings, are taking a toll on both of their healths as well.
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Yes, those are the odds for "normal" people. I figure the stress is pretty bad both being President and having multiple court cases pending, but at the same time they both have access to some of the best healthcare in the world, so maybe it all cancels out....lol
billryan
billryan
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October 26th, 2023 at 5:59:55 PM permalink
When you are 6'3 215 with great genes, age is just a number. Some people are just blessed.

I noticed something yesterday. Eric Trump never stands next to his father, he's always a few feet away. I think it's because he is taller than Donald.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
vegas
vegas
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October 26th, 2023 at 8:06:56 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

When you are 6'3 215 with great genes, age is just a number. Some people are just blessed.

I noticed something yesterday. Eric Trump never stands next to his father, he's always a few feet away. I think it's because he is taller than Donald.
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Have you seen Barron Trump lately. He had a growth spurt and I read he might be 6í7Ē. He is way taller than dad.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
billryan
billryan
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October 26th, 2023 at 9:23:11 PM permalink
Quote: vegas

Quote: billryan

When you are 6'3 215 with great genes, age is just a number. Some people are just blessed.

I noticed something yesterday. Eric Trump never stands next to his father, he's always a few feet away. I think it's because he is taller than Donald.
link to original post




Have you seen Barron Trump lately. He had a growth spurt and I read he might be 6í7Ē. He is way taller than dad.
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Have you seen a picture of them together? I have not.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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October 26th, 2023 at 11:36:46 PM permalink
Who knows how tall Barron is. He could be 7 foot tall by the time he gets arrested. But lore has it he will be first on a time machine back to the year 1900 or thereabouts when time travel becomes public in 2028. He'll be in Russia by then.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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October 27th, 2023 at 3:39:00 AM permalink
I'm closing this thread for a while because of too many political statements.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
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