Presidential Election Betting
Black, Native, and other minorities have been hit harder by the widening wealth gap
Cut military spending
Infrastructure has been ruined by "misguided free trade schemes"
Favors small and medium business over large corporations
Wants to make holistic health treatment widely available.
Committed to improving the lives of Native Americans, calls broken treaties "our nation's original sin"
Arrested for protesting the Keystone XL pipeline
Decries the "unhealed legacy of racism", wants to reform prisons and police, and promotes free ID
Wants to restrict mining, logging, and oil drilling. Self-described environmentalist.
Plans to strengthen the USDA and EPA
Raise the minimum wage
Expand free childcare
How much support will he have among Republicans once they realize all this stuff? As well as "Establish addiction healing centers on organic farms across the country." Yeah, that's a GOP priority, for sure.
Quote: OnceDearQuote: ChumpChangeGOP has no interest in governing and there will be no speaker until the next Congress.
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Can your government function at all without a speaker? Can debt ceilings be dealt with? Is the Republican party just closing down the US because of its internal issues?
I keep trying to anticipate government shut downs and their consequences. US politics amaze me.
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The house can vote to give the temp. Speaker a few more powers, but that gets tricky. They can also vote to change the majority to a plurality, which was last done in the 1850s when there were four major parties. Pretty much any bill the GOP pushes through is DOA in the Senate, anyway.
I think the next bill Jordan introduces that passes will be his first. It must be challenging to serve fifteen years and not get a single piece of your legislation passed.
I'm impressed that twenty-something Republicans stood up to the pressure and bullying. I was hoping for ten, and instead, the number grew. Now Jefferies has to find a moderate Republican who isn't running for re-election and offer them the Democrat's support. The woman from Indiana seems perfect.
Quote: MichaelBluejayHere are some of Kennedy's positions, all taken from his campaign website:
Black, Native, and other minorities have been hit harder by the widening wealth gap
Cut military spending
Infrastructure has been ruined by "misguided free trade schemes"
Favors small and medium business over large corporations
Wants to make holistic health treatment widely available.
Committed to improving the lives of Native Americans, calls broken treaties "our nation's original sin"
Arrested for protesting the Keystone XL pipeline
Decries the "unhealed legacy of racism", wants to reform prisons and police, and promotes free ID
Wants to restrict mining, logging, and oil drilling. Self-described environmentalist.
Plans to strengthen the USDA and EPA
Raise the minimum wage
Expand free childcare
How much support will he have among Republicans once they realize all this stuff? As well as "Establish addiction healing centers on organic farms across the country." Yeah, that's a GOP priority, for sure.
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I think his fervent anti-vax views drown all that out.
Maybe he can further explain his positions when he speaks at CPAC (lol).
Quote: MichaelBluejayHere are some of Kennedy's positions, all taken from his campaign website:
Black, Native, and other minorities have been hit harder by the widening wealth gap
Cut military spending
Infrastructure has been ruined by "misguided free trade schemes"
Favors small and medium business over large corporations
Wants to make holistic health treatment widely available.
Committed to improving the lives of Native Americans, calls broken treaties "our nation's original sin"
Arrested for protesting the Keystone XL pipeline
Decries the "unhealed legacy of racism", wants to reform prisons and police, and promotes free ID
Wants to restrict mining, logging, and oil drilling. Self-described environmentalist.
Plans to strengthen the USDA and EPA
Raise the minimum wage
Expand free childcare
How much support will he have among Republicans once they realize all this stuff? As well as "Establish addiction healing centers on organic farms across the country." Yeah, that's a GOP priority, for sure.
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He's an anti-vaxxer, has weird beliefs about trans people, and spouts a number of conspiracy theories. Whatever is on his campaign website, that's not what people are hearing.
Like I said, I think he's going to sap votes from both Biden and Trump, but because of his more wackier beliefs (and the fact he is actively courting conservatives) I think his running is going to hurt Trump a lot more.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: MichaelBluejayHere are some of Kennedy's positions, all taken from his campaign website:
Black, Native, and other minorities have been hit harder by the widening wealth gap
Cut military spending
Infrastructure has been ruined by "misguided free trade schemes"
Favors small and medium business over large corporations
Wants to make holistic health treatment widely available.
Committed to improving the lives of Native Americans, calls broken treaties "our nation's original sin"
Arrested for protesting the Keystone XL pipeline
Decries the "unhealed legacy of racism", wants to reform prisons and police, and promotes free ID
Wants to restrict mining, logging, and oil drilling. Self-described environmentalist.
Plans to strengthen the USDA and EPA
Raise the minimum wage
Expand free childcare
How much support will he have among Republicans once they realize all this stuff? As well as "Establish addiction healing centers on organic farms across the country." Yeah, that's a GOP priority, for sure.
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He's an anti-vaxxer, has weird beliefs about trans people, and spouts a number of conspiracy theories. Whatever is on his campaign website, that's not what people are hearing.
Like I said, I think he's going to sap votes from both Biden and Trump, but because of his more wackier beliefs (and the fact he is actively courting conservatives) I think his running is going to hurt Trump a lot more.
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He just needs to announce his Dad and Uncle will be his senior advisors to get the Qnon wings devotion..
Quote: ChumpChangeGOP has no interest in governing and there will be no speaker until the next Congress.
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If that's true, then we're gonna be looking at the longest shutdown in history, right?
Quote: DeucekiesQuote: ChumpChangeGOP has no interest in governing and there will be no speaker until the next Congress.
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If that's true, then we're gonna be looking at the longest shutdown in history, right?
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That possibility grows increasingly stronger every day.
1) 35 days (2018-2019: Trump, Republican House and Senate)
2) 21 days (1995-1996: Clinton, Republican House and Senate)
3) 16 days (2013: Obama, Republican House and Democrat Senate)
4) 5 days (1995: Clinton, Republican House and Senate)
5) 3 days (1990: Bush, Democrat House and Senate)
Quote: ams288And yet you claim he actually won Michigan in 2020 .
See the disconnect there?
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Warning issued for hijacking.
I don't think so. Trump has the wacky-beliefs electorate locked up. (Not saying all Trump supporters have wacky beliefs, but rather that of those who *do* have wacky beliefs, Trump owns them.) They're famously loyal to Trump. Why would they abandon their idol?Quote: TigerWu[JFK Jr is] an anti-vaxxer, has weird beliefs about trans people, and spouts a number of conspiracy theories. Whatever is on his campaign website, that's not what people are hearing....because of his more wackier beliefs (and the fact he is actively courting conservatives) I think his running is going to hurt Trump a lot more.
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(Saying this all in the spirit of the relative odds of candidates to win.)
Quote: MichaelBluejayI don't think so. Trump has the wacky-beliefs electorate locked up. (Not saying all Trump supporters have wacky beliefs, but rather that of those who *do* have wacky beliefs, Trump owns them.) They're famously loyal to Trump. Why would they abandon their idol?
(Saying this all in the spirit of the relative odds of candidates to win.)
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The election is over a year away, plenty of time for all those talking points of RFK Jr to get circulated and they will get circulated and it will have an effect on who votes for him. I have to admit I didn't know a lot of that stuff and I think it will damage him for sure with Republicans. After all he's about as Democrat as you can get from a Democrat Dynasty family.
I could find three polls which factor in RFKjr:
Redfield & Wilton (10/8), rated as "B/C" for reliability by 538, shows Trump leading Biden in 2 of the 5 swing states (AZ, GA), Biden leading in PA, and the other two states not included in the poll. Of course, Trump is generally leading Biden in swing states even with RFK *not* in the race. In any event, this should give pause to Biden supporters who insist (because they're Biden supporters) that RFKjr will certainly take more votes away from Trump than from Biden.
Yahoo News (Biden +1) and NPR/PBS/Marist (Biden +7), but these are national popular vote polls, and so are essentially useless. The election won't be decided on the popular vote, it'll be decided in the swing states, and right now, Trump is winning the swing states with or without JFK Jr. in the race.
Quote: MichaelBluejayThe election won't be decided on the popular vote, it'll be decided in the swing states, and right now, Trump is winning the swing states with or without JFK Jr. in the race.
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Exactly. And once the talking points from the campaign of RFK Jr become more and more known to Republicans, the more votes it will take away from him from Republicans. He's obviously a solid Democrat and many of his stances do not sit well with Republicans.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: MichaelBluejayThe election won't be decided on the popular vote, it'll be decided in the swing states, and right now, Trump is winning the swing states with or without JFK Jr. in the race.
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Exactly. And once the talking points from the campaign of RFK Jr become more and more known to Republicans, the more votes it will take away from him from Republicans. He's obviously a solid Democrat and many of his stances do not sit well with Republicans.
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I dont know a single democrat who likes RFK Jr.
Why is he speaking at CPAC?
Quote: EvenBobQuote: MichaelBluejayHe's obviously a solid Democrat and many of his stances do not sit well with Republicans.
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He's literally running as an Independent. He is not a "solid Democrat."
Quote: TigerWuQuote: EvenBobQuote: MichaelBluejayHe's obviously a solid Democrat and many of his stances do not sit well with Republicans.
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He's literally running as an Independent. He is not a "solid Democrat."
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How dare you bring fact and reality to this thread.
Did anyone catch trump yesterday outside of his trial? He was complaining about the plot to keep him off the campaign trail after complaining that he was stuck in NY, unable to campaign in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina. Then he declares he won't attend tomorrow because he is hosting a " really big" golf tournament in Doral. He certainly has his priorities down pat.The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Pledges Reparations for Black Community in 2024 Race
https://nypost.com/2023/10/18/rfk-jr-comes-out-for-reparations-forging-lane-to-bidens-left/
https://ground.news/article/rfk-jr-says-he-supports-reparations-for-black-community
Quote: EvenBobWell that didn't take long. RFK Jr has officially jumped the shark and it's only been a week since he announced. Yesterday he came out in favor of reparations for African Americans and that pretty much takes away 100% of the Republican vote that he might have gotten because as far as I know there's not a single Republican in the United States that supports reparations. Even Joe Biden never talks about it because he knows that it's dangerous territory. So if Republicans were worried about RFK Jr taking votes away from Trump that just went away like magic, poof it's gone.
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I feel like this post is going to age poorly, but we'll see....
Quote: TigerWuQuote: EvenBobWell that didn't take long. RFK Jr has officially jumped the shark and it's only been a week since he announced. Yesterday he came out in favor of reparations for African Americans and that pretty much takes away 100% of the Republican vote that he might have gotten because as far as I know there's not a single Republican in the United States that supports reparations. Even Joe Biden never talks about it because he knows that it's dangerous territory. So if Republicans were worried about RFK Jr taking votes away from Trump that just went away like magic, poof it's gone.
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I feel like this post is going to age poorly, but we'll see....
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An EB post that ages poorly? Impossible!
This is the election betting thread: is there a bet I could make somewhere that reparations will never be passed at the federal level?
McHenry's betting odds have risen sharply in the last day as a result.
Quote: TigerWuJim Jordan is officially out as Speaker nominee. Now it looks like the plan is to let McHenry rule until at least January.
McHenry's betting odds have risen sharply in the last day as a result.
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He's suspended his run, but I suspect he'll spend the next two months keeping up his high-pressure campaign to replace McHenry.
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And there will be a small percentage of Democrat voters that vote for him specifically on that issue.
RFK as an independent HELPS Republican presidential candidate. Hurts Democrat presidential candidate.
My betting window is still open. Pick ANY state Biden beat Trump in 2020. Ill bet Trump does not win that state in 2024 Presidential election.
Quote: TigerWu
He's literally running as an Independent. He is not a "solid Democrat."
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So what exactly has changed about his policies since he became an independent. Nothing has changed, absolutely nothing has changed except he now has independent next to his name instead of democrat. It's just a word game, he's been a lifelong Democrat just like his entire family and maybe he calls himself an independent but that's meaningless. Voters will still look at him as a Democrat. How could they not.
But.
I know how to bet.
And, I know who to listen to.
The smart people have said that Kennedy is slightly more likely to either help Biden or have no effect.
Ive already said it before, but its getting repeated. Whomever loses will blame all the third party candidates.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWu
He's literally running as an Independent. He is not a "solid Democrat."
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So what exactly has changed about his policies since he became an independent. Nothing has changed, absolutely nothing has changed except he now has independent next to his name instead of democrat. It's just a word game, he's been a lifelong Democrat just like his entire family and maybe he calls himself an independent but that's meaningless. Voters will still look at him as a Democrat. How could they not.
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He is in favor of national abortion bans.
He is pro-2A.
(Those two things right there gives him like negative Democrat support)
He is an anti-vaxxer and conspiracy theorist.
A number of his family members have turned on him for his rhetoric.
He is actively courting conservatives by appearing on Fox News and at the CPAC convention.
When he was trying to run as a Democrat, he got zero support from the party. That's why he had to switch to Independent.
This fanfiction about RFK Jr sapping Democrat votes to any serious degree is nothing but a Republican pipe dream.
Quote: SOOPOOGotta agree with EB on who RFK would hurt as an independent. He gets ZERO Republican votes as a pro reparations guy.
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Total BS. He is pro-abortion and pro-2A. Republicans will gladly overlook any talk of reparations for that. No Democrat would overlook abortion and guns in exchange for reparations.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWu
He's literally running as an Independent. He is not a "solid Democrat."
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So what exactly has changed about his policies since he became an independent. Nothing has changed, absolutely nothing has changed except he now has independent next to his name instead of democrat. It's just a word game, he's been a lifelong Democrat just like his entire family and maybe he calls himself an independent but that's meaningless. Voters will still look at him as a Democrat. How could they not.
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He is in favor of national abortion bans.
He is pro-2A.
(Those two things right there gives him like negative Democrat support)
He is an anti-vaxxer and conspiracy theorist.
A number of his family members have turned on him for his rhetoric.
He is actively courting conservatives by appearing on Fox News and at the CPAC convention.
When he was trying to run as a Democrat, he got zero support from the party. That's why he had to switch to Independent.
This fanfiction about RFK Jr sapping Democrat votes to any serious degree is nothing but a Republican pipe dream.Quote: SOOPOOGotta agree with EB on who RFK would hurt as an independent. He gets ZERO Republican votes as a pro reparations guy.
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Total BS. He is pro-abortion and pro-2A. Republicans will gladly overlook any talk of reparations for that. No Democrat would overlook abortion and guns in exchange for reparations.
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Incorrect. There are many Democrats that dont vote solely on the abortion issue. Ill wait here forever for you to find me a single Republican in favor of reparations. Give me Haley/Biden /Kennedy and Ill bet on Haley all day long. Same for DeSantis/Biden/Kennedy. DeSantis easily. The thought of Trump/Biden/Kennedy is too sickening .
Quote: billryanHow many people will vote for a candidate based on his stance on reparations?
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Not many. But a whole lot will vote against him if he has a positive stance on reparations. This is a hot button issue and candidates avoid it like the plague because it alienates way too many voters. It's one of the few issues that's a deal breaker for a lot of people. They might love somebody to death but they will turn up their nose if that candidate supports reparations. Because you're talking about diving right into somebody's wallet and that's always a deal-breaker. George Bush Senior lost to Bill Clinton because he promised no new taxes and then got taxes raised. People do not like you screwing with their wallets.
Quote: billryanHow many people will vote for a candidate based on his stance on reparations?
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It's not even remotely as relevant an issue as guns and abortion. I don't know why some people here are acting like it's a nail in RFK's coffin. Not even close.
Quote: TigerWuHe is pro-abortion and pro-2A.
I have never heard a single candidate campaign as pro-abortion. I one does I might vote for them. Sadly, the most brazen ones just campaign pro-choice. I would love to hear a politician profess abortions for everyone.
Quote: DRichQuote: TigerWuHe is pro-abortion and pro-2A.
I have never heard a single candidate campaign as pro-abortion. I one does I might vote for them. Sadly, the most brazen ones just campaign pro-choice. I would love to hear a politician profess abortions for everyone.
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That was a typo.
He's pro-life; pro-abortion bans. That's what I meant to say.
Quote: DRichQuote: TigerWuHe is pro-abortion and pro-2A.
I have never heard a single candidate campaign as pro-abortion. I one does I might vote for them. Sadly, the most brazen ones just campaign pro-choice. I would love to hear a politician profess abortions for everyone.
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Retroactively?
Quote: TigerWuQuote: billryanHow many people will vote for a candidate based on his stance on reparations?
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It's not even remotely as relevant an issue as guns and abortion. I don't know why some people here are acting like it's a nail in RFK's coffin. Not even close.
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No one said its a nail in his coffin. As far as him winning the Presidency that coffin is closed tight already. What Im saying is that there are (essentially) zero Republicans who will vote for a candidate who is in favor of reparations for slavery. So I see (close to) no votes taken from a Republican candidate to RGK Jr. I see a larger number of presumed Democrat voters hat will vote for RFK. Not exceeding a few %, but certainly exceeding the very small number of Republicans that go to RFK.
Quote: SOOPOOMy betting window is still open. Pick ANY state Biden beat Trump in 2020. Ill bet Trump does not win that state in 2024 Presidential election.
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I'll take Georgia for $100.
Quote: DRichQuote: TigerWuHe is pro-abortion and pro-2A.
I have never heard a single candidate campaign as pro-abortion. I one does I might vote for them. Sadly, the most brazen ones just campaign pro-choice. I would love to hear a politician profess abortions for everyone.
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Warning: Please keep your personal opinions about controversial topics to yourselves. The participants in this thread have been doing a reasonable job of steering away from advocacy and controversial statements and keeping this about the election probabilities. Please keep that up. Just don't talk about your personal feelings or advocate a viewpoint on a controversial issue such as abortion.
Note: I do realize that DRich does not have a record of breaking rules here. Let's just consider this a friendly reminder.
Quote: EvenBobWhat I am hearing over and over is that RFK juniors stance on reparations will siphon off the African-American vote from the Democrat candidate, be it Joe Biden or whoever is the candidate next year. 77% of African Americans favor reparations and this could be a deciding factor in who they vote for. Loss of the African-American vote in any presidential election is a critical factor for the Democrat candidate.
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Are those the same voices that tell you you have an 80% chance of winning your next bet?
Quote: MichaelBluejayIn the last few days, Trump's already strong position has only gotten stronger. He's now winning in 6 of the 9 measurements I track, including, crucially, 3 of the 4 ways to score the swing state polls. He's a whopping 5 points ahead each in Georgia and Arizona. He's winning whether JFK Jr. is in the race or not, and I expect his lead there to grow once Republican voters realize that JFK Jr. favors reparations. Biden is now the clear underdog, obvious to everyone except partisan Biden supporters.
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As opposed to the partisan trump supporters. The lead story on USA website just now is about how Biden is leading in a matchup with trump, if it is a two-way or a three-way race. Does any bookmaker have trump as the favorite?
Quote: MichaelBluejayHe's winning whether JFK Jr. is in the race or not, and I expect his lead there to grow once Republican voters realize that JFK Jr. favors reparations. Biden is now the clear underdog, obvious to everyone except partisan Biden supporters.
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This is a poll from the Pew Research Center on the subject of reparations. 77% of all black Democrats are in favor of reparations and it's even higher for registered black Democrat voters. It's 80% for them. There is absolutely no doubt that RFK Jr's stance on reparations will siphon off votes that would have gone for Joe Biden. At this point nobody knows how many but it will not siphon off any Republican votes.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: MichaelBluejayHe's winning whether JFK Jr. is in the race or not, and I expect his lead there to grow once Republican voters realize that JFK Jr. favors reparations. Biden is now the clear underdog, obvious to everyone except partisan Biden supporters.
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This is a poll from the Pew Research Center on the subject of reparations. 77% of all black Democrats are in favor of reparations and it's even higher for registered black Democrat voters. It's 80% for them. There is absolutely no doubt that RFK Jr's stance on reparations will siphon off votes that would have gone for Joe Biden. At this point nobody knows how many but it will not siphon off any Republican votes.
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The poll you cite has 8% of Republicans wanting reparations. So much for the myth that ZERO percent of republicans want them.
You have a very strange relationship with this math thing.
Quote: WizardQuote: SOOPOOMy betting window is still open. Pick ANY state Biden beat Trump in 2020. Ill bet Trump does not win that state in 2024 Presidential election.
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I'll take Georgia for $100.
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Ill let you confirm in this thread. Just to be clear, you win if Trump is awarded electoral votes from Georgia. I win if he is not?
Quote: billryanQuote: EvenBobQuote: MichaelBluejayHe's winning whether JFK Jr. is in the race or not, and I expect his lead there to grow once Republican voters realize that JFK Jr. favors reparations. Biden is now the clear underdog, obvious to everyone except partisan Biden supporters.
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This is a poll from the Pew Research Center on the subject of reparations. 77% of all black Democrats are in favor of reparations and it's even higher for registered black Democrat voters. It's 80% for them. There is absolutely no doubt that RFK Jr's stance on reparations will siphon off votes that would have gone for Joe Biden. At this point nobody knows how many but it will not siphon off any Republican votes.
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The poll you cite has 8% of Republicans wanting reparations. So much for the myth that ZERO percent of republicans want them.
You have a very strange relationship with this math thing.
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Not arguing about EBs relationship with math. Im just waiting to read one Republican come out in favor of Reparations. Im bad at internet stufff. Link me to one?
Quote: billryan
The poll you cite has 8% of Republicans wanting reparations. So much for the myth that ZERO percent of republicans want them.
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So what. I still claim that 0% of Republicans will vote for RFK because of reparations. Just like 80% of registered black voters are in favor of reparations but that doesn't mean 80% are going to vote for RFK Jr. He will get at least 10 to 15% you can almost guarantee that which will be totally destructive to the Democrat candidate whoever that's going to be.
