Presidential Election Betting
Quote: DRichQuote: ChumpChangeWhere will you get parts and service if this strike lasts 13 months?
Do you really think all of our cars will break down in the next 13 months? If I had to guess there will still be 98% of the cars on the road in 13 months.
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There's been major recalls on cars every week for months and months it seems, they won't even be able to do that. NHTSA will have to tell people not to drive their unfixed recalled cars.
Quote: MDawgI would assume that as we get closer to the actual election the odds against T's winning will increase. Due to legal problems, such as possibly even being remanded into custody. In a federal case people out on bail typically get to stay out pending sentencing, but in felony state matters judges often remand defendants into custody upon a jury verdict. Other than the romantic appeal of a candidate fighting alleged injustice from behind bars, I'd think that independents and moderates would be averse to voting for a locked up candidate. How could he do his job from inside there? Then again, the Mexican Mafia seems to direct things from even Security Housing Units just fine.
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I think Trumps odds of becoming president are actually more likely to increase.
His base is not abandoning him.
Biden could suffer an economic issue or a health issue.
Trump at +210 is a gift. And should be very easy to hedge in a year.
Quote: FinsRuleBiden could suffer an economic issue or a health issue.
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Seems speculative versus the very real Sword of Damocles hanging over T's head.
I believe that the "base" of either candidate is a given, so the election (as is often the case) will be decided by the independents.
Quote: ChumpChangeQuote: DRichQuote: ChumpChangeWhere will you get parts and service if this strike lasts 13 months?
Do you really think all of our cars will break down in the next 13 months? If I had to guess there will still be 98% of the cars on the road in 13 months.
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There's been major recalls on cars every week for months and months it seems, they won't even be able to do that. NHTSA will have to tell people not to drive their unfixed recalled cars.
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But you said there won't be cars to drive in 13 months. There are currently about 290 million cars in the U.S. I would be willing to bet there will still be at least 200 million cars running in 13 months.
Quote: LandoThe US is a joke at this point, since the deep state (and their minions) is a full blown Banana Republic that is trying to jail its opponents. What you are betting on, like last time sadly, is if the people supporting literally half dead people for president can cheat or use the courts to win. Let's just be honest about what the real betting is.
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A completely brilliant, totally non-partisan analysis. Kudos.
Quote: ChumpChangeWhere will you get parts and service if this strike lasts 13 months? This is a rerun of the writers & actors strike at this point with the state of the industry on the precipice of demolition. I've gotta get a new speedometer cluster next week. I hope the car maker dealership where my service is getting done will still be open. The part should be in the mail to them already from Detroit. I'm betting they will be open, because the strike union is going to shut down the transmission plants first and throw everybody else onto unemployment eventually. But will my car dealership stay open if they can't get parts or cars in a few weeks?
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Doom and gloom CC. You know CC, the "strike" only involves three (3) plants not the total industry, The rest are still functioning.
tuttigym
Quote: ChumpChangeIf a quarter of the cars on the road need service in a year and they can't get it, I sense a lot of inflation coming to the car market along with empty shelves at repair shops concerning those 3 big auto companies. The average age of cars on the road is over 12 years old last I heard. People can't buy new cars now because inflation drove prices 50% higher in the past few years and interest rates rose and banks aren't giving out the loans they once did.
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I don't disagree with this at all. I still don't understand why you think we won't have any running cars in 13 months.
Quote: LandoThe US is a joke at this point, since the deep state (and their minions) is a full blown Banana Republic that is trying to jail its opponents. What you are betting on, like last time sadly, is if the people supporting literally half dead people for president can cheat or use the courts to win. Let's just be honest about what the real betting is.
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3 day suspension for political speech.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: LandoThe US is a joke at this point, since the deep state (and their minions) is a full blown Banana Republic that is trying to jail its opponents. What you are betting on, like last time sadly, is if the people supporting literally half dead people for president can cheat or use the courts to win. Let's just be honest about what the real betting is.
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3 day suspension for political speech.
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And he's been here since 2014, not like he's a newbie..
Quote: FinsRuleThe biggest lock I can find on Bovada is Trump to win nomination and receive 45-50% of the popular vote. It’s +140 and I would be absolutely shocked if it doesn’t happen.
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If there's a third party candidate and that looks likely this would mean Trump wins.
Quote: Wizard
To be specific, bet four units on Biden and three on Trump. If either wins, you win one unit. 14.29% player advantage. Again, this assumes one of them wins, but I think that's pretty likely. Is there a market for a single bet on anyone but Trump or Biden?
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Betfair have a "Nominee Forecast" market
Odds atm is Trump vs Biden 1.87 buy/1.88 lay.
Not 100% what you ask for, but should be good enoguh,
Quote: EvenBobI've been following politics since 1960 and I've never seen anything like this where the sitting president has so little support from his own party. How can anybody think he's going to win the nomination. This is why a third party candidate is so dangerous because Democrats who don't want to vote for Biden and hate Trump will vote for the third party person.
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This is all true, yet Biden will still (almost definitely) win the nomination. At this time 4 years ago, less than 33% of Dems wanted him. And here we are.
Quote: FinsRuleQuote: EvenBobI've been following politics since 1960 and I've never seen anything like this where the sitting president has so little support from his own party. How can anybody think he's going to win the nomination. This is why a third party candidate is so dangerous because Democrats who don't want to vote for Biden and hate Trump will vote for the third party person.
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This is all true, yet Biden will still (almost definitely) win the nomination. At this time 4 years ago, less than 33% of Dems wanted him. And here we are.
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Question: what is the breakdown on "someone else"?
Remember, by party rule, the Democrats do not have "winner-take-all" primaries, with one "kinda sorta" exception: if only one candidate gets at least 15% of the vote in a district/state, they get all of that district's, or state's "statewide," delegates.
Also, how many of the "someone else" people have Biden as their second choice, so the numbers will start shifting toward him as the primaries take place?
Quote: EvenBobQuote: FinsRuleThe biggest lock I can find on Bovada is Trump to win nomination and receive 45-50% of the popular vote. It’s +140 and I would be absolutely shocked if it doesn’t happen.
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If there's a third party candidate and that looks likely this would mean Trump wins.
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Who would be the candidate? Cornell West is running, and nobody even is noticing. Sean Hannity is recruiting RFK Jr to be a third party candidate specifically in order to siphon votes from Biden, but Jr is refusing, mostly because his candidacy has fallen flat. The No Labels people are trying to figure themselves out, but any NL candidate will siphon moderate, centrist votes from both sides.
Barring something interesting happening from now until convention season, we're going to have Biden v. Trump II. Bet accordingly. For me, I'm still betting a Biden reelection, losing Wisc and perhaps Nev as swing states, but still giving Biden 283 electoral votes.
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: EvenBobQuote: FinsRuleThe biggest lock I can find on Bovada is Trump to win nomination and receive 45-50% of the popular vote. It’s +140 and I would be absolutely shocked if it doesn’t happen.
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If there's a third party candidate and that looks likely this would mean Trump wins.
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Who would be the candidate? Cornell West is running, and nobody even is noticing. Sean Hannity is recruiting RFK Jr to be a third party candidate specifically in order to siphon votes from Biden, but Jr is refusing, mostly because his candidacy has fallen flat. The No Labels people are trying to figure themselves out, but any NL candidate will siphon moderate, centrist votes from both sides.
Barring something interesting happening from now until convention season, we're going to have Biden v. Trump II. Bet accordingly. For me, I'm still betting a Biden reelection, losing Wisc and perhaps Nev as swing states, but still giving Biden 283 electoral votes.
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"A Quinnipiac University poll found that 47% of voters say they would consider voting for a third-party candidate. And according to a Monmouth University poll Thursday, three in 10 Americans said they’d entertain supporting a “fusion” ticket comprised of a Democrat and Republican.
Both polls point to a distaste among many voters for Democratic incumbent Joe Biden and Republican former President Donald Trump, who are the clear front-runners for their parties’ nominations.
In a hypothetical rematch between Biden and Trump, the majority of people surveyed by Monmouth said they would vote for neither. Forty-five percent said they definitely would not vote for Biden, while 7% said they probably would not vote for him. Forty-six percent said they definitely would not support Trump; 8% said they probably would not."
Quote: EvenBobQuote: GenoDRPhQuote: EvenBobQuote: FinsRuleThe biggest lock I can find on Bovada is Trump to win nomination and receive 45-50% of the popular vote. It’s +140 and I would be absolutely shocked if it doesn’t happen.
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If there's a third party candidate and that looks likely this would mean Trump wins.
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Who would be the candidate? Cornell West is running, and nobody even is noticing. Sean Hannity is recruiting RFK Jr to be a third party candidate specifically in order to siphon votes from Biden, but Jr is refusing, mostly because his candidacy has fallen flat. The No Labels people are trying to figure themselves out, but any NL candidate will siphon moderate, centrist votes from both sides.
Barring something interesting happening from now until convention season, we're going to have Biden v. Trump II. Bet accordingly. For me, I'm still betting a Biden reelection, losing Wisc and perhaps Nev as swing states, but still giving Biden 283 electoral votes.
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"A Quinnipiac University poll found that 47% of voters say they would consider voting for a third-party candidate. And according to a Monmouth University poll Thursday, three in 10 Americans said they’d entertain supporting a “fusion” ticket comprised of a Democrat and Republican.
Both polls point to a distaste among many voters for Democratic incumbent Joe Biden and Republican former President Donald Trump, who are the clear front-runners for their parties’ nominations.
In a hypothetical rematch between Biden and Trump, the majority of people surveyed by Monmouth said they would vote for neither. Forty-five percent said they definitely would not vote for Biden, while 7% said they probably would not vote for him. Forty-six percent said they definitely would not support Trump; 8% said they probably would not."
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When it comes right down to it, those same people who say they may consider voting third party, end up voting for one or the other. Neither Debs, nor Perot or Ron Paul has even gotten enough support to actually matter.
Quote: EvenBobFor the first time Trump leads Biden in the RCP average. Even the CNN poll has Trump +1
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I highly recommend you invest all of your roulette “winnings” betting on this outcome. Seems like a no-brainer. Free money!
Quote: ams288
I highly recommend you invest all of your roulette “winnings” betting on this outcome. Seems like a no-brainer. Free money!
There is probably a $2 minimum bet.
Quote: GenoDRPh
When it comes right down to it, those same people who say they may consider voting third party, end up voting for one or the other. Neither Debs, nor Perot or Ron Paul has even gotten enough support to actually matter.
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Nor will they ever get enough support, that's not the point. Their point is to draw votes away from one of the other parties and that's what they always do. Right now the party has the most to lose from third party candidate is the Democrats.
"Trump is edging out Biden in seven key states according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted online from September 8 through September 14. In the poll, which gathered responses from 4,413 American adults, Trump led with 41 percent to Biden's 35 percent in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Michigan."
Quote: EvenBobQuote: GenoDRPh
When it comes right down to it, those same people who say they may consider voting third party, end up voting for one or the other. Neither Debs, nor Perot or Ron Paul has even gotten enough support to actually matter.
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Nor will they ever get enough support, that's not the point. Their point is to draw votes away from one of the other parties and that's what they always do. Right now the party has the most to lose from third party candidate is the Democrats.
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There isn't a candidate who has enough political power to do so.
Quote: GenoDRPh
There isn't a candidate who has enough political power to do so.
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Right now it's looking like Elmer Fudd could run as a third party candidate and get a heck of a lot of votes.
Quote: ChumpChangeQuote: DRichQuote: ChumpChangeWhere will you get parts and service if this strike lasts 13 months?
Do you really think all of our cars will break down in the next 13 months? If I had to guess there will still be 98% of the cars on the road in 13 months.
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There's been major recalls on cars every week for months and months it seems, they won't even be able to do that. NHTSA will have to tell people not to drive their unfixed recalled cars.
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I was thinking about betting on the election, and THIS post came up? In CC’s history of hijacking threads with abject nonsense, this ranks pretty high.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ChumpChangeQuote: DRichQuote: ChumpChangeWhere will you get parts and service if this strike lasts 13 months?
Do you really think all of our cars will break down in the next 13 months? If I had to guess there will still be 98% of the cars on the road in 13 months.
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There's been major recalls on cars every week for months and months it seems, they won't even be able to do that. NHTSA will have to tell people not to drive their unfixed recalled cars.
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I was thinking about betting on the election, and THIS post came up? In CC’s history of hijacking threads with abject nonsense, this ranks pretty high.
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Actually, for ChumpChange's history of hijacks, this particular atrocity ranks no higher than the middle. The moderators wait and watch from the darkness.
Quote: TigerWuAnyone know what the odds are for Trump getting taken off the ballot due to some 14th Amendment issue?
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“Former President Donald Trump isn’t covered by the disqualification clause, and he is eligible to be on the ballot in the 2024 presidential election,” Professor Calabresi wrote. “I am correcting the public record on this important issue by sending you this letter.”
Next Non-Extradition Country That Trump Will Enter
Russia +275
Saudi Arabia +275
United Arab Emirates +350
China +700
Qatar +1000
Serbia +1600
Ukraine +2000
Indonesia +3000
Kazakhstan +3000
Belarus +4000
Montenegro +4000
Moldova +4000
Afghanistan +5000
Oman +5000
Kuwait +5000
Macedonia +5000
Bahrain +5000
Libya +8000
Bosnia and Herzegovina +10000
Uzbekistan +10000
Uganda +12500
Rwanda +12500
Morocco +15000
Lebanon +15000
Burma +15000
Tunisia +20000
Mali +20000
Bangladesh +20000
Senegal +25000
Namibia +25000
Mongolia +25000
Angola +25000
Algeria +25000
Quote: TigerWuLOL I found these odds online:
Next Non-Extradition Country That Trump Will Enter
Russia +275
Saudi Arabia +275
United Arab Emirates +350
China +700
Qatar +1000
Serbia +1600
Ukraine +2000
Indonesia +3000
Kazakhstan +3000
Belarus +4000
Montenegro +4000
Moldova +4000
Afghanistan +5000
Oman +5000
Kuwait +5000
Macedonia +5000
Bahrain +5000
Libya +8000
Bosnia and Herzegovina +10000
Uzbekistan +10000
Uganda +12500
Rwanda +12500
Morocco +15000
Lebanon +15000
Burma +15000
Tunisia +20000
Mali +20000
Bangladesh +20000
Senegal +25000
Namibia +25000
Mongolia +25000
Angola +25000
Algeria +25000
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I’d happily lay 100-1 that of those countries Trump does not visit Uzbekistan next. Oman at 50-1 seems like a bad bet as well.
Quote: SOOPOO
I’d happily lay 100-1 that of those countries Trump does not visit Uzbekistan next. Oman at 50-1 seems like a bad bet as well.
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Also, I feel like Saudi Arabia would be way more likely than Russia.
Biden won NH by 7 in 2020.
Quote: billryanIf a Democrat loses New Hampshire in 2024, the party is in trouble
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If a Democrat wins NH by a 5 point larger margin than they won it by in 2020, the other party is in trouble.
The newest poll for Pennsylvania doesn't change the result (still 276-262 for Biden), but it's a *safer* 276-262, since Biden's lead in PA is now 2 pts rather than a mere 0.5.
Biden won all 5 swing states last time, this time he's leading in only 3 of them, but that's enough to win the presidency.
What would the line be for Biden winning all 5 swing states in 2024? I'm skeptical he can pull it off. For that matter, he's not super-far away from losing all of them.
Quote: MichaelBluejay
What would the line be for Biden winning all 5 swing states in 2024? I'm skeptical he can pull it off. For that matter, he's not super-far away from losing all of them.
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In the latest RCP average Trump is still leading Biden. This is not good for Biden because in 2020 Trump never led Biden even one time in the RCP average.
In 2020, Biden won all five swing states: NV, AZ, GA, WI, PA
In current polling, Trump has taken back AZ + GA.
That leaves Biden with NV, WI, and PA, enough to squeak by in the electoral college, 276-262.
He could actually afford to lose NV too and still win 270-268.
But if Trump has AZ + GA, then Biden has to keep WI *and* PA. If Biden loses either, he loses the election.
Biden is vulnerable in WI because he won it in 2020 by a razor-thin 0.63 points.
In current polling, of NV, WI, and PA, Biden has the smallest lead in PA, so he's vulnerable there.
It seems like WI or PA could decide the next election.
Do any books (online or offline) offer bets about the outcome in specific states, or combinations of states?
Quote: MichaelBluejayCould one state decide the next election? If so, it will likely be either WI or PA.
In 2020, Biden won all five swing states: NV, AZ, GA, WI, PA
In current polling, Trump has taken back AZ + GA.
That leaves Biden with NV, WI, and PA, enough to squeak by in the electoral college, 276-262.
He could actually afford to lose NV too and still win 270-268.
But if Trump has AZ + GA, then Biden has to keep WI *and* PA. If Biden loses either, he loses the election.
Biden is vulnerable in WI because he won it in 2020 by a razor-thin 0.63 points.
In current polling, of NV, WI, and PA, Biden has the smallest lead in PA, so he's vulnerable there.
It seems like WI or PA could decide the next election.
Do any books (online or offline) offer bets about the outcome in specific states, or combinations of states?
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Arizona is trying to put an abortion referendum on the ballot for 2024.
What are the odds any republican could win in that state if that happens?
Predictit does have state bets as it gets closer.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: MichaelBluejay
What would the line be for Biden winning all 5 swing states in 2024? I'm skeptical he can pull it off. For that matter, he's not super-far away from losing all of them.
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In the latest RCP average Trump is still leading Biden. This is not good for Biden because in 2020 Trump never led Biden even one time in the RCP average.
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How about the polls from a year before the election?
Quote: GenoDRPhIf Kari Lake runs for Senate from AZ, could that impact Rep or Dem turnout?
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It may or may not be a three-person race so it's hard to tell. I think Democrats are hoping she wins her party's nomination and may work to that end. None of the three or four candidates are very popular. McCain's daughter would be favored in a general election but wouldn't get through the primary, plus she has no interest in the mud-wrestling that is sure to come.
