No Jackpot Winner Powerball Prop Bet

Correction:
For the link below:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/20/#post752868
Where it says "P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 698 "
It should say "... resolved to date: 970".

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Odds Update:
The No Jackpot Winner for:
Mega Millions went from -2000 to -2150 and
Powerball went from -1000 to -1100.

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Other/Speculation:
I wonder if the Wiz having a bet is part of the reason they are lowering^^^ the odds? (Could be just a coincidence).

^^^: If you have time, the next time you (the Wiz) have a bet, can you see if the odds change within 30 minutes of you having a bet? (if you have the time and do decide to do this, you only have to check once roughly 30 minutes has gone by, so it shouldn't be too hard to do, thanks).

1: Before you say something like "his bets aren't big enough to move the odds" you could be wrong, because in the horse racing / betting industry I work in, the type of player having a bet is more important than the size of the bet (eg, if a "Rec punter" has $5000 on a horse, quite often we won't change the odds, but if a known "Smart punter" has $100 or $200 on a horse, we will wind the price off).

2: The Wiz's words may have more "weight" on his site, by that I mean some people may follow his posts/bets more often ? (so more people may be having a bet when he "posts about it")

Also, this is just speculation, as there is not enough data at this time.

Lastly, there are plenty of other possible reasons for the current odds movements (one obvious one could be me starting/continuing with this thread)

Odds Update:
The No Jackpot Winner for:
Mega Millions went from -2000 >>> -2150 >>> -2000 and
Powerball went from -1000 >>> -1100 >>> -1050.

For the Mega Millions draw on the 01/07/2020, I put 2,100 down to win 105.

Opening Bal: 26,970
Finishing Bal: 27,075
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,075
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.81...%
Odds Taken: -2000
Actual EV: 1.66...%
Tickets Sold***: 9,781,030
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Other:

It seems they have taken the Powerball odds down (unless it is just my computer)?

Mike.... This has been going on for quite a while.... a long series of +EV bets..... Do you think the reason this is happening is that there are just a large number of bettors taking the opposite side with just no idea how much -EV is involved in the bet? That when you are laying 20-1 there are a bunch still willing to make the pathetic bet of 14-1 or so? So the book still wins of course? If so, this could be a never ending opportunity.......

Quote: SOOPOO

Mike.... This has been going on for quite a while.... a long series of +EV bets..... Do you think the reason this is happening is that there are just a large number of bettors taking the opposite side with just no idea how much -EV is involved in the bet? That when you are laying 20-1 there are a bunch still willing to make the pathetic bet of 14-1 or so? So the book still wins of course? If so, this could be a never ending opportunity.......

Hi, I know you directed this at Mike, but I think everything you said is close to 100% correct.

Note: there are some rare occasions that the bookie could be getting "crushed" (EV-Wise), but this would possibly only be happening for " draws with a "high estimated EV" and/or "big odds" for the "no prop" " (https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/16/#post750360 )

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Not feeling good (don't feel like doing extra work) so I will just be using the "WoO ticket sales estimate" for my "bet summary" below:


Bet Summary:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/10/2020"
Odds: -1900
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~96.51%
Estimated EV: about +1.59%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 10.1% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 96.51% (based on about 10.76 "Tickets sold (in millions)")


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Odds Update:
The No Jackpot Winner for:
Powerball went from -1000 >>> -1100 >>> -1050 >>> -950.
Mega Millions opened at -1900

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Other:

Expanding on what you said about the "... bettors taking the opposite side with just no idea how much -EV is involved in the bet? .", we will now have a look at how "bad the opposite side is (EV-wise)", for the next MM draw.

If you wanted to bet on the "Yes, Jackpot Winner" prop, you would have an EV of:
about -54.63% (based on the odds of +1200***, and an estimated ~ 3.49% chance of happening)

***: To put it another way, the actual tickets sold needs to be more than ~ 24.22 million, for this bet to become +EV.

I guess I can't see a ton of people betting the 14-1 payoff of someone hitting for very much money or for very long due to the fact that they'll lose the majority of the time. I've got to imagine this won't last forever because the books overtime will lose out to sharp money and either correct the lines or stop offering the wager. Or, as is always with sharing plays, other AP's or wanna be AP's will dilute your take by hammering the odds down.

All that said and done I still absolutely love this thread. I have not placed one wager on either, though it's quite interesting to see. Any smallllll chance you guys wouldn't mind adding a little results summary on your posts? I feel bad asking but I always try to hunt to see what happened to all your placed bets to see if they actually won or not and what not =P.

Again, appreciate you guys for sharing and enjoying the thread even if I'm not a daily participant =).

For the Powerball draw on the 01/08/2020, I put 1,350 down to win 135.

Opening Bal: 27,075
Finishing Bal: 27,210
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,210
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 93.15...%
Odds Taken: -1000
Actual EV: 2.47...%
Tickets Sold***: 20,715,540
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Bet Summary:

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/11/2020"
Odds: -900
Estimated Chance: 92.43...% (based on an estimate of 23 *** million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: about +2.70...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 8.1% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Bet Amount if "MM bet Loses" ($): $1,980
Bet Amount if "MM bet Wins" ($): $2,205 (By use of "If-bet" feature)
When will I have a bet: now

***: My "early" range is 20 to 23 million tickets.

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Odds Update:
The No Jackpot Winner for:
Mega Millions went from -1900 >>> -1800
Powerball opened at -900

Let's look at the drawings for 1/10 and 1/11

Date: Jan 10
Lottery: Mega Millions
Jackpot: 80M
Estimated sales: 10.76M
Probability of winner: 3.49%
Probability no winner: 96.51%
Fair line no winner: -2765
5 Dimes line: -1800
Player advantage: 1.87%
Wiz bet: $360 to win $20

Date: Jan 11
Lottery: PowerBall
Jackpot: 277M
Estimated sales: 22.54M
Probability of winner: 7.42%
Probability no winner: 92.58%
Fair line no winner: -1247
5 Dimes line: -900
Player advantage: 2.87%
Wiz bet: $450 to win $50.

(i) For the Mega Millions draw on the 01/10/20, I put 2,755 down to win 145.

Opening Bal: 27,210
Finishing Bal: 27,355
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,355
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.67...%
Odds Taken: -1900
Actual EV: 1.76...%
Tickets Sold***: 10,220,993


(ii) For the Powerball draw on the 01/11/20, I put 2,205 down to win 245.

Opening Bal: 27,355
Finishing Bal: 27,600
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,600
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 92.52...%
Odds Taken: -900
Actual EV: 2.81...%
Tickets Sold***: 22,687,261

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Bet Summary:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/14/20"
Odds: -1800
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~96.4%
Estimated EV: about +1.75%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 10.5% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Bet Amount ($): $2,916
When will I have a bet: now

^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 96.4% (based on about 11.11 "Tickets sold (in millions)")

Bet Summary:

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/15/20"
Odds: -800
Estimated Chance: 92.27...% (based on an estimate of 23.5 *** million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: about +3.80...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 10.2% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: My "early" range is 20.5 to 23.5 million tickets.

Let's look at the drawings for 1/14 and 1/15

Date: Jan 14
Lottery: Mega Millions
Jackpot: 91M
Estimated sales: 11.11M
Probability of winner: 3.6%
Probability no winner: 96.4%
Fair line no winner: -2678
5 Dimes line: -1800
Player advantage: 1.76%
Wiz bet: $360 to win $20

Date: Jan 8
Lottery: PowerBall
Jackpot: 296M
Estimated sales: 23.72M
Probability of winner: 7.8%
Probability no winner: 92.2%
Fair line no winner: -1182
5 Dimes line: -800
Player advantage: 3.73%
Wiz bet: $600 to win $75.

Odds Update:
The No Jackpot Winner for:
Mega Millions went from -1800 to -1700 and
Powerball went from -800 to -750

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The theory below is "less likely" now, because the Wiz just had a bet and the odds got "bigger" (after he had the bet).

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Other/Speculation:
I wonder if the Wiz having a bet is part of the reason they are lowering^^^ the odds? (Could be just a coincidence).

^^^: If you have time, the next time you (the Wiz) have a bet, can you see if the odds change within 30 minutes of you having a bet? (if you have the time and do decide to do this, you only have to check once roughly 30 minutes has gone by, so it shouldn't be too hard to do, thanks).(snip)

Odds Update:
The No Jackpot Winner for:
Mega Millions went from -1800 >>> -1700 >>> -1600
Powerball went from -800 to -750

Quote: ksdjdj

Odds Update:
The No Jackpot Winner for:
Mega Millions went from -1800 >>> -1700 >>> -1600
Powerball went from -800 to -750

I should bide my time next time.

(i) For the Mega Millions draw on the 001/14/20, I put 2,916 down to win 162.

Opening Bal: 27,600
Finishing Bal: 27,762
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,762
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.68...%
Odds Taken: -1800
Actual EV: 2.05...%
Tickets Sold***: 10,212,311


(ii) For the Powerball draw on the 01/15/20, I put 2,832 down to win 354.

Opening Bal: 27,762
Finishing Bal: 28,116
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 2,116
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 92.33...%
Odds Taken: -800
Actual EV: 3.88...%
Tickets Sold***: 23,291,790

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Bet Summary (1):

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/17/2020"
Odds: -1500
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~96.27%
Estimated EV: about 2.68%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 13.4% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Bet Amount ($): $3,780
When will I have a bet: now

^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 96.27% (based on about 11.49 "Tickets sold (in millions)")

Bet Summary (2):

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/18/2020"
Odds: -700
Estimated Chance: 90.86...% (based on an estimate of 28 *** million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +3.84...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 9% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
Bet Amount ($): $2,184 (if above MM bet loses)
Bet Amount ($): $2,555 (if above MM bet wins, by use of "if bet" feature).
When will I have a bet: now

***: My "early" range is 24 to 28 million tickets.

Note 1: The Wiz's Calc gets ~32.52 for the "Tickets sold (in millions): " figure, so for -700 odds on the "No", you will get an estimated EV of about 2.25%, when doing it that way.

Note 2: The rough "random ticket break-even point" @ -700 for the "No" is: 39 million tickets (so you have a nice "buffer", no matter which "estimate you decide to use")

Quote: Wizard

I should bide my time next time.

For some reason this is what I imagined you were doing when you first thought this.

For the Mega Millions draw on the 01/17/20, I put 3,780 down to win 252.

Opening Bal: 28,116
Finishing Bal: 28,368
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 2,368
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.22...%
Odds Taken: -1500
Actual EV: 2.64...%
Tickets Sold***: 11,636,748

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Other / Odds update:

For tonights' Powerball, my "late" ticket range is 23.8 to 26.2 million tickets.

For the "no winner":
Powerball: -700 >> -1000 >> -900
Mega Millions: -2000^^^

^^^: I won't be having a bet yet, but at this price there is +EV (1%, as a very rough estimate).

For the Powerball draw on the 01/18/20, I put 2,555 down to win 365.

Opening Bal: 28,368
Finishing Bal: 28,733
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 2,733
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 91.18...%
Odds Taken: -700
Actual EV: 4.21...%
Tickets Sold***: 26,961,131

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

Bet Summary (1):

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/21/2020"
Odds: -1600
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~96.13%
Estimated EV: about 2.14%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 11.4% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 96.27% (based on about 11.93 "Tickets sold (in millions)")

Bet Summary (2):

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/22/2020"
Odds: -800
Estimated Chance: 90.86...% (based on an estimate of 28 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: ~ 2.2%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 5.9% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

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Odds Movements:
MM: went -2000 > -1800 > -1600
PB: went -1000 > ??? > -800

Let's look at the drawings for 1/14 and 1/15

Date: Jan 21
Lottery: Mega Millions
Jackpot: 116M
Estimated sales: 11.11M
Probability of winner: 3.87%
Probability no winner: 96.13%
Fair line no winner: -2484
5 Dimes line: -1600
Player advantage: 2.14%
Wiz bet: $480 to win $30

Date: Jan 22
Lottery: PowerBall
Jackpot: 343M
Estimated sales: 23.72M
Probability of winner: 11.55%
Probability no winner: 88.45%
Fair line no winner: -766
5 Dimes line: -800
Player advantage: -0.49%
Wiz bet: $0

For the Mega Millions draw on the 01/21/20, I put 3,280 down to win 205.

Opening Bal: 28,733
Finishing Bal: 28,938
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 2,938
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 96.30...%
Odds Taken: -1600
Actual EV: +2.31...%
Tickets Sold***: 11,405,186

and

For the Powerball draw on the 01/22/20/, I put 1,696 down to win 212.

Opening Bal: 28,938
Finishing Bal: 29,150
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 3,150
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 90.95...%
Odds Taken: -800
Actual EV: +2.32...%
Tickets Sold***: 27,701,764

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Other:

I didn't like the "early odds on offer" for the last MM and PB, so that is why I had my bet late, and posted "fairly late" too.

As of Thursday morning here are the lines:
MM: -1600
PM: -700

I'll bide my time. Reminder to myself MM draw is Friday at 8PM Pacific time.

Thursday evening update -- No change.

Quote: Wizard

As of Thursday morning here are the lines:
MM: -1600
PM: -700
(snip)

As of this post, the odds are still the same.

Quote: ksdjdj

As of this post, the odds are still the same.

Still no change at the time of this post. May as well analyze them...

Let's look at the drawings for 1/24 and 1/25

Date: Jan 21
Lottery: Mega Millions
Jackpot: 130M
Estimated sales: 12.42M
Probability of winner: 4.02%
Probability no winner: 95.98%
Fair line no winner: -2388
5 Dimes line: -1600
Player advantage: 1.98%
Wiz bet: $320 to win $20

Date: Jan 22
Lottery: PowerBall
Jackpot: 373M
Estimated sales: 41.02M
Probability of winner: 13.1%
Probability no winner: 86.9%
Fair line no winner: -633
5 Dimes line: -700
Player advantage: -0.69%
Wiz bet: $0

Bet Summary:

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/24/20"
Odds: -1600
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~95.98%
Estimated EV: about 1.98%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 10.6% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

^^^: Just a copy of the Wiz's post above. for the % chance for the Mega Millions.

For the Powerball draw on the 01/24/20, I put 3,088 down to win 193.

Opening Bal: 29,150
Finishing Bal: 29,343
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 3,343
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.96...%
Odds Taken: -1600
Actual EV: +1.96...%
Tickets Sold***: 12,470,361

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Other:

PB Odds are now -650 for the "No Jackpot Winner" (they opened at -700)

My estimated range for the PB will be 28.4 to 34.4 million tickets, and I will probably use 34 million as the figure for the bet summary (so about 89% chance for "no winner").

Also, the Wiz's calculator and my estimate will be "quite different", but I I am 98%+ confident my "mid-point" (31.4 million tickets) will be closer to the "actual tickets sold, this time^^^.

^^^: In an earlier post, I was out by quite a lot when I went against the "Wiz's Calc figure", but I think i also "reduced my confidence" in my figure for that one by betting about "2/7 kelly" (instead of my usual "1/3 kelly" ).

Bet Summary:

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/25/2020"
Odds: -600
Estimated Chance ^^^: 89.01...% (based on am estimate of 34 million tickets)
Estimated EV: about 3.85%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 7.7% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

^^^: My estimated range is between 28.4 and 34.4 million tickets.

---
Other:

PB went: -700 > -650 > -600
MM has opened at -1375

I will "wait and see" what the odds are tomorrow, before I have a bet on the MM.

Correction, for the link >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31799-no-jackpot-winner-powerball-prop-bet/23/#post755464 <<< it should say "... Mega Millions draw on the 01/24/20 ... ", in the first sentence.

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For the Powerball draw on the 01/25/20, I put 2,262 down to win 377.

Opening Bal: 29,343
Finishing Bal: 29,720
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 3,720
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 89.51...%
Odds Taken: -600
Actual EV: +4.43...%
Tickets Sold***: 32,362,367

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

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Extra info:

This isn't important for my bets now^^^, but I just noticed that for some reason the Jackpot for the next Powerball draw went up by about $21 million, yet the difference### between the Jackpot on the 01/22 and the 01/25 was $30 million.

^^^: This probably explains why my estimates were out a bit more than I liked when I was using my "old formula" (before the "Wiz's calculator" was available).

###: There seem to be similar differences in the Mega Millions Jackpots as well.

Also, before the "Wiz's Calc", I had two ways of getting an "estimate" for the MM and three ways for the PB, and one way used the "Jackpot size difference" to estimate the ticket sales, so I am lucky that I haven't bet into any neg EV (back then).

Bet Summary (1):

Game: Mega Millions
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/28/2020"
Odds: -1333
Estimated Chance ^^^: ~95.85%
Estimated EV: about 3.04%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 13.5% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

^^^: I used the estimate from here >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ <<<< by doing 100% - "Probability of winner(s):" = 95.85% (based on about 12.82 "Tickets sold (in millions)")

Bet Summary (2):

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 01/29/2020"
Odds: -500
Estimated Chance: 88.10...% (based on an estimate*** of 37 million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: 5.72...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 9.5% of bank roll (about 1/3 Kelly)
When will I have a bet: now

***: My "early" estimated range is between 30 and 37 million tickets.

Note: the odds could get even bigger before the draw(s) (like they have been recently, for the last few draws) but I think the estimated EV is "big enough" to bet now.

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Odds Movements:
MM: went -1375 > -1333
PB: went -550 > -500

Since lottery ticket purchases are a physical system (exchange of money, printing of tickets) there must be a limit to the number of separate tickets that can be produced in the three or four days prior to each draw. There must be a fall off in the number of tickets sold as the system approaches this limit due to inefficiencies in the system (retail hours of operation, lack of ticket paper, etc.).

Is the physical limit of the system so high that it isn't an issue for the forecast of the number of tickets sold?

Quote: Ayecarumba

Since lottery ticket purchases are a physical system (exchange of money, printing of tickets) there must be a limit to the number of separate tickets that can be produced in the three or four days prior to each draw. There must be a fall off in the number of tickets sold as the system approaches this limit due to inefficiencies in the system (retail hours of operation, lack of ticket paper, etc.).

Is the physical limit of the system so high that it isn't an issue for the forecast of the number of tickets sold?

Yes, you are most likely correct, but I don't know what the limit is.
I think the figures below are the largest number of tickets sold for each game (at least since 2012).

On 01/13/16, the Powerball### sold 635,103,137 tickets and
on 03/30/12, Mega Millions*** sold 651,915,940 tickets.

###: http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison16.htm
***: http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison12.htm

Based on the above tickets sold figures, the 2016 system for the Powerball could handle at least 110.26 thousand tickets per minute, and the 2012 system for the Mega Millions could handle at least 150.90 thousand tickets per minute (If my math is correct?).

Note: For working out the above "tickets per minute", I think the PB had a 4 day gap, and the MM had a 3 day gap between draws. (?)

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Extra:

In Australian lotteries, you can buy things called "quick picks", I think you have to buy at least 6 tickets at a time when you do this (but I don't play them often, so I am not sure)
Also, the "quick picks" are printed on "one long ticket" in Australia.
Lastly, I don't know if the USA "Machine /Quick Pick" tickets are printed like they are in Australia or not.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Since lottery ticket purchases are a physical system (exchange of money, printing of tickets) there must be a limit to the number of separate tickets that can be produced in the three or four days prior to each draw. There must be a fall off in the number of tickets sold as the system approaches this limit due to inefficiencies in the system (retail hours of operation, lack of ticket paper, etc.).

Is the physical limit of the system so high that it isn't an issue for the forecast of the number of tickets sold?

I don't play the lottery. But I am pretty sure you can buy Powerball tickets online in most states (like many lottery games) and you just type out your numbers into each transaction (which would make one player mass buying easier)?

There may be different rules in different states as far as purchasing various lottery tickets online.

For example in GA you can buy most major lottery tickets online and they automatically email you at the drawing for which tickets/numbers win:

https://www.galottery.com/en-us/content/how-it-works.html


I am sure most states have similar lottery infrastructure rendering physical limitations far less meaningful than in past years. I don't know the stats offhand, but some news thing I saw recently said in many areas, online and electronic tickets vastly outweigh physical sales. From an anecdotal perspective, most people I see in lottery lines at convenience stores generally are older (may not be tech savy) or appear that they may not have regular online accsess.

Date: Jan 28
Lottery: Mega Millions
Jackpot: 141M
Estimated sales: 12.82M
Probability of winner: 4.15%
Probability no winner: 95.85%
Fair line no winner: -2309
5 Dimes line: -1333
Player advantage: 3.04%
Wiz bet: $333.25 to win $25

Date: Jan 29
Lottery: PowerBall
Jackpot: 394M
Estimated sales: 41.02M
Probability of winner: 14.29%
Probability no winner: 85.71%
Fair line no winner: -600
5 Dimes line: -500
Player advantage: 2.85%
Wiz bet: $600 to win $120

Odds Movements...:
MM: went -1375 > -1333 > -1275
PB: went -550 > -500 > -475

I think you should bet the "No" for the MM now, if you haven't bet.
For the PB, I would lock in the -475 for the "No", even though the odds could get bigger (mainly because it is a big enough estimated EV).

Also, I hope the PB gets to a big enough Jackpot soon, so that I can show you what happens when all the "sharps" come to "smash the odds".

Lastly, the "No winner" odds trend(s) for the "low odds/low EV" draws are hard to work out, because the trends seem to be always changing ( for the last few rolls it seems to be best to wait until the day of the draw).

For the Mega Millions draw on the 01/28/20, I put 3,999 down to win 300.

Opening Bal: 29,720
Finishing Bal: 30,020
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 4,020
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 95.84...%
Odds Taken: -1333
Actual EV: +3.03...%
Tickets Sold***: 12,832,684

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

ks, and maybe Wiz, ..... assume you have a gambling bankroll of $10,000,000...... what are the largest bets you could get down on these 'no lottery winner' bets? Could I bet $20k on one of them?

ks, you list a 'finishing balance' of over $30k..... no worries that if you ever want access to that money someone will say you broke some sort of rule and you won't get it?

Quote: SOOPOO

ks, and maybe Wiz, ..... assume you have a gambling bankroll of $10,000,000...... what are the largest bets you could get down on these 'no lottery winner' bets? Could I bet $20k on one of them?

ks, you list a 'finishing balance' of over $30k..... no worries that if you ever want access to that money someone will say you broke some sort of rule and you won't get it?

There is a summary near the end, in case you don't want to read the whole post (I sometimes ramble or go off on a tangent with my posts).

Last time I checked, you could bet "to win $1000" for odds smaller than +100, and you could get "$1000 down" for odds +100 (or bigger).
The "betting limits" reset after about 5 to 20 minutes or as soon as the odds change (whichever come first).

The current odds for the Mega Millions "no winner" is -1200, so you could have $12,000 to win $1,000 and then you would have to wait a bit, if you wanted any more.

I have about 9k in the the casino and the rest is in an account that can quickly be converted to bitcoin.

5dimes have been around since 1996, but there is always at least a "small worry" trying to withdraw from any "non/semi-regulated"^^^ online casino, but I haven't had any trouble*** with them so far.

^^^: By this I mean, they are a casino that is either not licensed or it is licensed in Costa Rica (either way, it would be extremely difficult to win a dispute).

Note: Some sites say Costa Rica doesn't offer licenses and others do, so that is why I wrote "^^^" above like this (at the bare minimum they are "established in Costa Rica").

***: Make sure you read all the rules, as there is one that I didn't notice until recently that says something like, "if your phone number doesn't match the one you have registered to your account, then we won't pay you".

Note: This rule was important for me to find###, because I currently have a different phone number to the one I registered the account with. I just asked live help to change it, and everything is fine now.

###: The only problem I have with them from personal experience is that they don't email you when the rules have been changed/updated (so always read them before you make a deposit or withdrawal).

----
Summary :

Gambling bankroll: I think the biggest bank-roll you will need for this prop is up to $300k.

Largest Bet/"Could I bet $20k...?": Currently, the biggest bet you can have on one ticket is to "Win $1000" (odds less than +100) or "$1000 down" (odds +100 or more). The line will eventually reset and you can have another bet, if you want (so you could bet 20k in total, if you still thought it was a +EV bet after all the "line changes/resets").

"... someone will say you broke some sort of rule and you won't get it" : There is always at least a "small chance"#*# of that happening with any online casino. So you just have to make sure you read all the general rules and "applicable sports specific rules" before you make a deposit and withdrawal .
Note: I have always been paid, so far.

#*# (update about 610 pm): But that could also be true for a land based sports book / casino.

My "late" ticket estimate range for the Powerball today is: 31 to 38 million tickets.

PB is still -475 for the "no winner" (odds movement, -550 > -500 > -475).

MM opened at -1200 for the "no winner"

I threw down another $237 to win $50 at the -475 price on the no Powerball winner.

Quote: Wizard

I threw down another $237 to win $50 at the -475 price on the no Powerball winner.

Too bad the jackpot was hit.
I will put my "results summary" up once I know what the ticket sales were.

---
Extra stuff:

You may find it interesting that the jackpot had about a 78%*** chance of being hit by the 25th drawing for this roll, according to the link below:

https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20200129.pdf

***: Look under the heading, "Coverage" > "CUMUL" > scroll down to the date of the 25th draw (as the jackpot was hit on this one).

Note: If the total tickets sold for the first 25 draws of a new roll are the same as this one, then there is always about a 78% chance that the jackpot will be hit on the 25th draw (or earlier).

Also note: knowing this doesn't change the fact that the Jackpot had about an 11% chance of being hit on this draw (which is the only thing we really need to know for the bets we are having).

For the Powerball draw on the 01/29/20, I put down 2,850 and lost.

Opening Bal: 30,020
Finishing Bal: 27,170
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,170
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 88.67...%
Odds Taken: -500
Actual EV: +6.40...%
Tickets Sold***: 35,133,109

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

----
Other:

I will only post about the MM for the next draw, as the odds for the next "powerball - no winner prop" will probably be - EV, or at most only slightly + EV. Also, I think it will be -3250 (+/- 750).

Lastly, I would love to have seen this jackpot roll rise enough so that the odds got out to +100 (or more) for the "no winner prop", so you could see some real good +EV bets (like the bets I had on the first page of this thread).

Quote: ksdjdj

There is a summary near the end, in case you don't want to read the whole post (I sometimes ramble or go off on a tangent with my posts).

Last time I checked, you could bet "to win $1000" for odds smaller than +100, and you could get "$1000 down" for odds +100 (or bigger).
The "betting limits" reset after about 5 to 20 minutes or as soon as the odds change (whichever come first).

The current odds for the Mega Millions "no winner" is -1200, so you could have $12,000 to win $1,000 and then you would have to wait a bit, if you wanted any more.

I have about 9k in the the casino and the rest is in an account that can quickly be converted to bitcoin.

5dimes have been around since 1996, but there is always at least a "small worry" trying to withdraw from any "non/semi-regulated"^^^ online casino, but I haven't had any trouble*** with them so far.

^^^: By this I mean, they are a casino that is either not licensed or it is licensed in Costa Rica (either way, it would be extremely difficult to win a dispute).

Note: Some sites say Costa Rica doesn't offer licenses and others do, so that is why I wrote "^^^" above like this (at the bare minimum they are "established in Costa Rica").

***: Make sure you read all the rules, as there is one that I didn't notice until recently that says something like, "if your phone number doesn't match the one you have registered to your account, then we won't pay you".

Note: This rule was important for me to find###, because I currently have a different phone number to the one I registered the account with. I just asked live help to change it, and everything is fine now.

###: The only problem I have with them from personal experience is that they don't email you when the rules have been changed/updated (so always read them before you make a deposit or withdrawal).

----
Summary :

Gambling bankroll: I think the biggest bank-roll you will need for this prop is up to $300k.

Largest Bet/"Could I bet $20k...?": Currently, the biggest bet you can have on one ticket is to "Win $1000" (odds less than +100) or "$1000 down" (odds +100 or more). The line will eventually reset and you can have another bet, if you want (so you could bet 20k in total, if you still thought it was a +EV bet after all the "line changes/resets").

"... someone will say you broke some sort of rule and you won't get it" : There is always at least a "small chance"#*# of that happening with any online casino. So you just have to make sure you read all the general rules and "applicable sports specific rules" before you make a deposit and withdrawal .
Note: I have always been paid, so far.

#*# (update about 610 pm): But that could also be true for a land based sports book / casino.

This thread looks a lot like promotion for the casino..no offence! like bet 1000 to win 20.. woe!
my experience and thousands of other experiences are really BAD:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/30393-beware-of-the-criminal-online-casinos/

Quote: ksdjdj

For the Powerball draw on the 01/29/20, I put down 2,850 and lost.

Opening Bal: 30,020
Finishing Bal: 27,170
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 1,170
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 88.67...%
Odds Taken: -500
Actual EV: +6.40...%
Tickets Sold***: 35,133,109

*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

----
Other:

I will only post about the MM for the next draw, as the odds for the next "powerball - no winner prop" will probably be - EV, or at most only slightly + EV. Also, I think it will be -3250 (+/- 750).

Lastly, I would love to have seen this jackpot roll rise enough so that the odds got out to +100 (or more) for the "no winner prop", so you could see some real good +EV bets (like the bets I had on the first page of this thread).

The correct calculus for the chance to win the jackpot based on total tickets sold do not divide number of tickets by total combos. you know why? cos the’re repeats. think of it another way. total tickets sold=double total combs in the game: is the probability to hit the jackpot p=2? ABSURD!

*We assume it is one combination per ticket.* it is certain that the players play independent from one another, so the combos played are random.

i sbumit to you the correct calculations are on the page i referred you to
https://saliu.com/powerball-jackpot-odds.html

there is no guarantee all possible combos will be played no matter how many tickets.. no god of lottery can guarantee that. if the number of tickets (combos played) equal total combs in the game – the tickets cover only 63% of possibilities. Easier to check is pick3 lottery=1000 combos. you generate at random 1000 combos you only get 63% or so of total sets.. its never all 1000 combos in the game.

based on your link for mega mills - 01/28/20
12,832,684 tickets sold (we assume combinations played)
12832684/302575350=4.24%

but correct calculation considering the repeat factor p=4.15%

not big dif there.. but the more tickets played the wider the gap probabilities.

A BIGG question: who guarantees the figures of tickets sold?? are the figures equal to combos played?

powerball 01/29/20 tickets sold 35,133,109 total combos=292201338
calculation considering the repeat factor p=11.33% to win the jackpot.

it’s a HUGE advantage for the player even if we multiply tickets sold by 2 (the cost per ticket). i’m not referring to the online bet but to lottery play at an agent.

maybe tickets per draw means new tickets per draw from previous since the first rollover??

Quote: weezrDASvegas

Quote: ksdjdj

There is a summary near the end, in case you don't want to read the whole post (I sometimes ramble or go off on a tangent with my posts).

Last time I checked, you could bet "to win $1000" for odds smaller than +100, and you could get "$1000 down" for odds +100 (or bigger).
The "betting limits" reset after about 5 to 20 minutes or as soon as the odds change (whichever come first).

The current odds for the Mega Millions "no winner" is -1200, so you could have $12,000 to win $1,000 and then you would have to wait a bit, if you wanted any more.

I have about 9k in the the casino and the rest is in an account that can quickly be converted to bitcoin.

5dimes have been around since 1996, but there is always at least a "small worry" trying to withdraw from any "non/semi-regulated"^^^ online casino, but I haven't had any trouble*** with them so far.

^^^: By this I mean, they are a casino that is either not licensed or it is licensed in Costa Rica (either way, it would be extremely difficult to win a dispute).

Note: Some sites say Costa Rica doesn't offer licenses and others do, so that is why I wrote "^^^" above like this (at the bare minimum they are "established in Costa Rica").

***: Make sure you read all the rules, as there is one that I didn't notice until recently that says something like, "if your phone number doesn't match the one you have registered to your account, then we won't pay you".

Note: This rule was important for me to find###, because I currently have a different phone number to the one I registered the account with. I just asked live help to change it, and everything is fine now.

###: The only problem I have with them from personal experience is that they don't email you when the rules have been changed/updated (so always read them before you make a deposit or withdrawal).

----
Summary :

Gambling bankroll: I think the biggest bank-roll you will need for this prop is up to $300k.

Largest Bet/"Could I bet $20k...?": Currently, the biggest bet you can have on one ticket is to "Win $1000" (odds less than +100) or "$1000 down" (odds +100 or more). The line will eventually reset and you can have another bet, if you want (so you could bet 20k in total, if you still thought it was a +EV bet after all the "line changes/resets").

"... someone will say you broke some sort of rule and you won't get it" : There is always at least a "small chance"#*# of that happening with any online casino. So you just have to make sure you read all the general rules and "applicable sports specific rules" before you make a deposit and withdrawal .
Note: I have always been paid, so far.

#*# (update about 610 pm): But that could also be true for a land based sports book / casino.

This thread looks a lot like promotion for the casino..no offence! like bet 1000 to win 20.. woe!
my experience and thousands of other experiences are really BAD:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/30393-beware-of-the-criminal-online-casinos/

I will try and give you the "benefit of the doubt" and reply to your post as fairly as possible, even though the first two things you say seem "offensive" and/or "sarcastic" to me.

1."This thread looks a lot like promotion for the casino..no offence! ": I am not a promoter of 5dimes (or any other casino) but I have to name their website to give my thread and bets legitimacy (otherwise i could say anything, and not have any proof to back up the claims).

2. "1000 to win 20.. woe!": I know you said this to prove a point that the odds that I am taking are generally "very low" odds, but I would personally rather have 2% +EV for bets with odds of -1000, then to have 10% +EV with odds of +150 (as an example).

3. "my experience and thousands of other experiences are really BAD:": Yes, I agree that if you bet with SOME online casinos, you will have a bad experience, that is why there are review sites.
I now look at 5 (or more) review sites ever since I had a "bad experience" (see note below).

Note: One of my first experiences with an online casino was particularly bad, I used to bet with AC Casino about 10 years ago, and when I finally won they took about 1 year to pay me (I had to file a complaint with a website called askgamblers to help with getting my funds withdrawn).

Also, if you have had a bad experience with online casino(s) before, then I can understand why you would want to write negatively about those specific casinos. In fact you can open up a new thread or post to the thread you linked in your above post and talk about those specific casino(s) there instead (I am almost certain you are allowed to "name and shame" the casinos you have had a bad experience with).

-----
Below is something that may be helpful to you.

After looking at your thread, here are some interesting things that I found after typing "review GTbets.eu" in a search engine.

Lowest rating i could find on the first page: 6/10

Highest rating ... on the first page: 93%


Here is an excerpt from the site that gave them a 93%
https://www.goodsportsbooks.com/gtbets/

"... GTBets Review Scam Investigation? Any Legit Scam Complaints?
This sportsbooks reputation is intact and legit.

One of the first things we do when reviewing any sportsbook is search high and low for scam accusations. There is a very clean slate laid out for GTBets. As a matter of fact, when they first began they paid off the existing debts of around $40k of a defunct sportsbook (VIP sportsbook). They made the players whole, even though it was not their debt.

The only things I could uncover were a few player complaints about not being able to cash out but it was because they did not understand the bonus rollover requirements. This is going to happen everywhere and as a result, I can not find any legit claims of GTBets ripping anyone off. ..."


Below is an excerpt from the site that gave them 6/10 (they also have them "blacklisted", at the moment)
https://www.askgamblers.com/online-casinos/gtbets-casino-review/

"...After being notified that GTBets casino was operating without a valid licence issued by a regulated authority and despite the numerous attempts to receive further clarification and confirmation on behalf the casino management, AskGamblers Team have not received any. Operating without a valid licence means zero protection for players...".

----
I was tired when I wrote this, as it is the middle of the night where I live, so I hope my post is easy enough to understand.

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: weezrDASvegas

Quote: ksdjdj

There is a summary near the end, in case you don't want to read the whole post (I sometimes ramble or go off on a tangent with my posts).

Last time I checked, you could bet "to win $1000" for odds smaller than +100, and you could get "$1000 down" for odds +100 (or bigger).
The "betting limits" reset after about 5 to 20 minutes or as soon as the odds change (whichever come first).

The current odds for the Mega Millions "no winner" is -1200, so you could have $12,000 to win $1,000 and then you would have to wait a bit, if you wanted any more.

I have about 9k in the the casino and the rest is in an account that can quickly be converted to bitcoin.

5dimes have been around since 1996, but there is always at least a "small worry" trying to withdraw from any "non/semi-regulated"^^^ online casino, but I haven't had any trouble*** with them so far.

^^^: By this I mean, they are a casino that is either not licensed or it is licensed in Costa Rica (either way, it would be extremely difficult to win a dispute).

Note: Some sites say Costa Rica doesn't offer licenses and others do, so that is why I wrote "^^^" above like this (at the bare minimum they are "established in Costa Rica").

***: Make sure you read all the rules, as there is one that I didn't notice until recently that says something like, "if your phone number doesn't match the one you have registered to your account, then we won't pay you".

Note: This rule was important for me to find###, because I currently have a different phone number to the one I registered the account with. I just asked live help to change it, and everything is fine now.

###: The only problem I have with them from personal experience is that they don't email you when the rules have been changed/updated (so always read them before you make a deposit or withdrawal).

----
Summary :

Gambling bankroll: I think the biggest bank-roll you will need for this prop is up to $300k.

Largest Bet/"Could I bet $20k...?": Currently, the biggest bet you can have on one ticket is to "Win $1000" (odds less than +100) or "$1000 down" (odds +100 or more). The line will eventually reset and you can have another bet, if you want (so you could bet 20k in total, if you still thought it was a +EV bet after all the "line changes/resets").

"... someone will say you broke some sort of rule and you won't get it" : There is always at least a "small chance"#*# of that happening with any online casino. So you just have to make sure you read all the general rules and "applicable sports specific rules" before you make a deposit and withdrawal .
Note: I have always been paid, so far.

#*# (update about 610 pm): But that could also be true for a land based sports book / casino.

This thread looks a lot like promotion for the casino..no offence! like bet 1000 to win 20.. woe!
my experience and thousands of other experiences are really BAD:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/30393-beware-of-the-criminal-online-casinos/

I will try and give you the "benefit of the doubt" and reply to your post as fairly as possible, even though the first two things you say seem "offensive" and/or "sarcastic" to me.

1."This thread looks a lot like promotion for the casino..no offence! ": I am not a promoter of 5dimes (or any other casino) but I have to name their website to give my thread and bets legitimacy (otherwise i could say anything, and not have any proof to back up the claims).

2. "1000 to win 20.. woe!": I know you said this to prove a point that the odds that I am taking are generally "very low" odds, but I would personally rather have 2% +EV for bets with odds of -1000, then to have 10% +EV with odds of +150 (as an example).

3. "my experience and thousands of other experiences are really BAD:": Yes, I agree that if you bet with SOME online casinos, you will have a bad experience, that is why there are review sites.
I now look at 5 (or more) review sites ever since I had a "bad experience" (see note below).

Note: One of my first experiences with an online casino was particularly bad, I used to bet with AC Casino about 10 years ago, and when I finally won they took about 1 year to pay me (I had to file a complaint with a website called askgamblers to help with getting my funds withdrawn).

Also, if you have had a bad experience with online casino(s) before, then I can understand why you would want to write negatively about those specific casinos. In fact you can open up a new thread or post to the thread you linked in your above post and talk about those specific casino(s) there instead (I am almost certain you are allowed to "name and shame" the casinos you have had a bad experience with).

-----
Below is something that may be helpful to you.

After looking at your thread, here are some interesting things that I found after typing "review GTbets.eu" in a search engine.

Lowest rating i could find on the first page: 6/10

Highest rating ... on the first page: 93%


Here is an excerpt from the site that gave them a 93%
https://www.goodsportsbooks.com/gtbets/

"... GTBets Review Scam Investigation? Any Legit Scam Complaints?
This sportsbooks reputation is intact and legit.

One of the first things we do when reviewing any sportsbook is search high and low for scam accusations. There is a very clean slate laid out for GTBets. As a matter of fact, when they first began they paid off the existing debts of around $40k of a defunct sportsbook (VIP sportsbook). They made the players whole, even though it was not their debt.

The only things I could uncover were a few player complaints about not being able to cash out but it was because they did not understand the bonus rollover requirements. This is going to happen everywhere and as a result, I can not find any legit claims of GTBets ripping anyone off. ..."


Below is an excerpt from the site that gave them 6/10 (they also have them "blacklisted", at the moment)
https://www.askgamblers.com/online-casinos/gtbets-casino-review/

"...After being notified that GTBets casino was operating without a valid licence issued by a regulated authority and despite the numerous attempts to receive further clarification and confirmation on behalf the casino management, AskGamblers Team have not received any. Operating without a valid licence means zero protection for players...".

----
I was tired when I wrote this, as it is the middle of the night where I live, so I hope my post is easy enough to understand.

OK, “Donald Caligula Trump” (notwithstanding latest Congress evidence or claim of evidence)!
https://www.trustpilot.com/review/www.bet365.com
https://www.trustpilot.com/review/www.ladbrokes.com

“I was tired when I wrote this”
“and give you the "benefit of the doubt"
you dont have to take it or leave it.. its gonna be forever there…

PS
Dont stay up AFTER mid night where you live.. the numbers are GHOSTS..

Quote: ksdjdj

Too bad the jackpot was hit.

Dang.