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weezrDASvegas
weezrDASvegas
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ksdjdj
December 23rd, 2019 at 9:02:51 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

You too!

I was listening to the radio on the drive home yesterday and it spoke of a world-record being broken in Spain for the largest lottery jackpot -- El Gordo.

‘El Gordo’ Lottery in Spain Spreads Riches Worth $2.6 Billion.

What I don't get is the article says the winning "number" was 26590. Wikipedia says the draw is 5 numbers from 1 to 54 and one from 0 to 9. The odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 31,625,100.


People need one common language. It was latin now its english. This is how the gordo site explains the game…

elGordo
Every December 22th. 2.380 million € in prizes. The most famous and billionare draw in the world.

elGordo Christmas is the most traditional draw in Spain. It is a tradition that everyone plays the lottery on December 22th.

December 21 will be public at 23:00, the exam and recount of the number bowls and prizes bowls that are going to be in elGordo Christmas.
This balls could be checked by the assistants if they want it, with a previous request and the president's authorization.
When the recount is finished, everybody leaves the saloon and it is secured with interior latches all its access except the platform door, which keys are kept by 3 different claveros, once closed and sealed.

The saloon is opened at at 8.00 the day 22, and everybody could get in, the only limitation is the capacity of the local.
At 8.30 is constituted the table that presides and authorizes the draw. After this, when the balls are showed to the public, the bowls are transported mechanically by the tolva, where they were deposited previously, to the bowl

A boy or a girl of St. Ildefonso´s school extracts a ball from the bowl of numbers and another children at the same time, took another of the bowl of prizes, both are sang by another two children, that inserts the balls in wires.

These wires are joined in a table untill they contain 2 hundred balls of each type, being properly closed in front of the president´s table with the agree of the president and the auditor.


What could be clearer? Methinks this is absolutely the best gambling in history including escaping inquisition when they started this game. The odds are in the millions but the prizes are in the billions. i wonder what currency they use if it’s the same as during inquisition…

https://www.elgordo.com/games/elgordo/indexen.asp
weezrDASvegas
weezrDASvegas
Joined: Feb 2, 2018
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December 23rd, 2019 at 9:09:06 AM permalink
Quote: weezrDASvegas

Quote: Wizard

You too!

I was listening to the radio on the drive home yesterday and it spoke of a world-record being broken in Spain for the largest lottery jackpot -- El Gordo.

‘El Gordo’ Lottery in Spain Spreads Riches Worth $2.6 Billion.

What I don't get is the article says the winning "number" was 26590. Wikipedia says the draw is 5 numbers from 1 to 54 and one from 0 to 9. The odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 31,625,100.


People need one common language. It was latin now its english. This is how the gordo site explains the game…

elGordo
Every December 22th. 2.380 million € in prizes. The most famous and billionare draw in the world.

elGordo Christmas is the most traditional draw in Spain. It is a tradition that everyone plays the lottery on December 22th.

December 21 will be public at 23:00, the exam and recount of the number bowls and prizes bowls that are going to be in elGordo Christmas.
This balls could be checked by the assistants if they want it, with a previous request and the president's authorization.
When the recount is finished, everybody leaves the saloon and it is secured with interior latches all its access except the platform door, which keys are kept by 3 different claveros, once closed and sealed.

The saloon is opened at at 8.00 the day 22, and everybody could get in, the only limitation is the capacity of the local.
At 8.30 is constituted the table that presides and authorizes the draw. After this, when the balls are showed to the public, the bowls are transported mechanically by the tolva, where they were deposited previously, to the bowl

A boy or a girl of St. Ildefonso´s school extracts a ball from the bowl of numbers and another children at the same time, took another of the bowl of prizes, both are sang by another two children, that inserts the balls in wires.

These wires are joined in a table untill they contain 2 hundred balls of each type, being properly closed in front of the president´s table with the agree of the president and the auditor.


What could be clearer? Methinks this is absolutely the best gambling in history including escaping inquisition when they started this game. The odds are in the millions but the prizes are in the billions. i wonder what currency they use if it’s the same as during inquisition…

https://www.elgordo.com/games/elgordo/indexen.asp



the saloon reminds me of jessie james, billy the kidd, wyat earp… go for da jackpot boys!!!
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 23rd, 2019 at 3:43:42 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

You too!

I was listening to the radio on the drive home yesterday and it spoke of a world-record being broken in Spain for the largest lottery jackpot -- El Gordo.

‘El Gordo’ Lottery in Spain Spreads Riches Worth $2.6 Billion.

What I don't get is the article says the winning "number" was 26590. Wikipedia says the draw is 5 numbers from 1 to 54 and one from 0 to 9. The odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 31,625,100.


I agree with your figure for that "El gordo" and I was about to write "I don't get it either" when I noticed this, in the Wikipedia article:

"...The largest prize given at the Spanish Christmas Lottery (and to a lesser extent at any other Spanish lottery), is also referred to as 'El Gordo'...."

So this is probably the correct wikipedia link >>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Christmas_Lottery <<< since there is an official 'El Gordo' lottery. but some other big lotteries can also be called 'El Gordo' (confusing right?)

----
Update (about 350 pm):

The no winner is now -1100 for the next PB draw, hoping it 'bounces back' to -1000 (or better) but I will still probably take -1100, when I bet closer to the draw date..
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 23rd, 2019 at 5:47:28 PM permalink
I'm still trying to make sense of this Christmas El Gordo lottery. Here are some links, which help:

El Gordo de Navidad List of Prizes
Spanish Christmas Lottery (wiki)

It seems this has different rules than the ordinary Gordo drawings. Most prizes seem based on a random integer from 0 to 99,999. However, other numbers are drawn for 12 lesser prizes.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 23rd, 2019 at 10:39:23 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'm still trying to make sense of this Christmas El Gordo lottery. Here are some links, which help:

El Gordo de Navidad List of Prizes
Spanish Christmas Lottery (wiki)

It seems this has different rules than the ordinary Gordo drawings.


I have been trying to make sense of it too, I think it is a 'raffle*** like' draw and I originally thought this (but kept 'flip-flopping' in my head between 'lottery' and 'raffle' every time I looked further into it).

***: "....The difference with El Gordo is that it operates as a RAFFLE, distributing a specific number of prizes that all have a set value before the draw starts. Because of this, El Gordo offers a near 1 in 100,000 chance of winning the jackpot..."

It is interesting to note that some 'lower value' prizes are harder to 'hit' than the 'higher value' ones (see links below)

odds of winning
El Gordo de Navidad List of Prizes (Repost of the link you provided)

One example of a "lower prize being harder to hit" would be: "5th prize" vs "The number before and the number after El Gordo 1st prize"

1 ticket (per Billete) has:
(a) a 1/12,500 chance of winning "5th prize"
(b) a 1/50,000 chance of winning "The number before and the number after El Gordo 1st prize"

Yet the prizes are:
(a) €60,000 for winning "5th place"
(b) €20,000 for winning "The number before and the number after El Gordo 1st prize".

Quote:

Most prizes seem based on a random integer from 0 to 99,999. However, other numbers are drawn for 12 lesser prizes.


I think the "other numbers" are based on the the numbers drawn from the "major prizes" (see some examples below):

"The number before and the number after El Gordo 1st prize"
"Same first three digits as 2nd prize"
"Same first three digits as 4th prize"
"Same last two digits as 3rd prize"
"Same last digit as El Gordo"
"Five correct numbers"

Note: for the "Five correct numbers", I think it means matching all the numbers in "El Gordo 1st prize", but getting the order wrong (?)

Below is a link for the winning numbers in the "2019 draw" ("1st to 5th prize" numbers):

http://www.elgordo.net/en/results/el-gordo-de-navidad-2019

-----
Update (about 1130 pm):

I think "La Pedrea"### is the same as the "Five correct numbers"###

###: There are 1794 ways to get "La Pedrea" (Spanish Christmas Lottery (wiki)) and 1794 ways to get "5 correct numbers" (odds of winning ).

Is 1794 the number of permutations (combinations ?) for: matching all the digits#*# in "El Gordo 1st prize", but getting the order wrong ?

Edit #*#: changed this from "numbers" to "digits", at about 1210 am.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 24, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 24th, 2019 at 7:54:02 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: Wizard

I'm still trying to make sense of this Christmas El Gordo lottery. Here are some links, which help:

El Gordo de Navidad List of Prizes
Spanish Christmas Lottery (wiki)

It seems this has different rules than the ordinary Gordo drawings.


(snip)
Update (about 1130 pm):

I think "La Pedrea"### is the same as the "Five correct numbers"###

###: There are 1794 ways to get "La Pedrea" (Spanish Christmas Lottery (wiki)) and 1794 ways to get "5 correct numbers" (odds of winning ).

Is 1794 the number of permutations (combinations ?) for: matching all the digits#*# in "El Gordo 1st prize", but getting the order wrong ?

Edit #*#: changed this from "numbers" to "digits", at about 1210 am.


I was having another look and even if there can be 1794*** combos if every digit is different for the "five correct numbers", now I think that "can't be right" because if the "El Gordo" ball drawn is: 00.000 , 11,111 , 22,222 and so on like that (all the way up to 99,999). then there would only be "one way to arrange the winning digits" (?)

***: I haven't checked if that is even correct yet, because it requires more "math knowledge" than I currently have (eg I would have to research the math involved to have a chance to work it out)

-------
The MM got to -3000 last time I looked and the PB is currently -1050 for the "no jackpot winner" odds.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 25th, 2019 at 2:52:56 AM permalink
Betting Summary:

Game: Powerball
Book: www.5dimes.eu
Prop: "No Jackpot Winner 12/25/19"
Odds: -1050
Estimated Chance: 95.64...% (based on an estimate of 13*** million tickets sold)
Estimated EV: +4.75...%
Bet Amount (%): ~ 14.3% of bank roll (about "28.6%" ^^^ Kelly)
Bet Amount ($): $3,675
When will I have a bet: now

***: Based on all the information I could find, I think the range should be between 11.2 and 13.2 million tickets

^^^: Not as "confident" with my ticket estimate (too much conflicting info) so that is why I am betting about 28.6% (or 2/7 ) Kelly, this time.

----
Other:

If it wasn't the Christmas draw, and I didn't have access to this site below
https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/ticket-sales-calculator/ >>>> or this site
>>>> https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/pb20191225.pdf
then I would have probably put up a range between 16 and 18 million tickets (as my estimate).

Again, looks like it will be a "dip" (instead of a "bump"###) if the estimate on the "txlottery.org" link is to be believed (?)

###: Remember the "bump" I predicted around this time, is subjective, as there is not enough data to prove or disprove, IMO. But I did clarify later that I only noticed it for "jackpots above $300 million" (possibly ?).

-----
Other '2':

The "no jackpot winner" for the Mega Millions went from -3500 to -3000, so it will be interesting to me if it becomes slightly +EV soon (I have never seen the "no winner" go + EV this early in the draw before).

If less than about 9.9 million tickets were sold in the draw on the 12/24/19, then it would have had a "slight +EV" on the "no jackpot winner" at -3000.

Note: At the time of this post, I do not know what the actual number of tickets sold was for the MM draw on the 12/24/19.

Also, if they are not on break, the ticket sales should show up soon on this link below:
http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 25, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 25th, 2019 at 3:14:44 PM permalink
Update(s) (odds and EV):

Powerball No Jackpot Winner 12/25/19:
Current Odds: -1000 (was -1050 last time I posted)
Estimated EV: ~ 5.2% (was ~4.75% when I had my bet).

Mega Millions No Jackpot Winner 12/27/19:
Current Odds: -3000 (They only "just put up the odds", so no changes that I can see)
Estimated EV: ??? (Odds too small so I will wait, maybe I will have a bet if they get to -2750 or better).

----
Update 2 (about 630 pm):

PB is still -1000 for "no jackpot winner"
MM is now -2750 for "no jackpot winner" (still not sure if I will have a bet, even though there is about +0.3% estimated EV).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 25, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 26th, 2019 at 2:01:57 PM permalink
For the Powerball draw on the 12/25/19, I put 3,675 down to win 350.

Opening Bal: 25,702
Finishing Bal: 26,052
P/(L) for all bets resolved to date: 52
Chance of no winner (based on actual tickets sold): 94.25...%
Odds Taken: -1050
Actual EV: 3.22...%
Tickets Sold***: 17,300,095 (I had 13 million, and the Wiz's Calc had 17.49 million, as the estimate).
*** http://lottoreport.com/ticketcomparison.htm

----
Other:

I was "way out" for the last PB ("backed the wrong horse", by putting too much "faith"### in the "PB's own estimates").
###: Talk about a case of TMCI ("Too Much Conflicting Information").

Also, the WIz's Calculator was within 200,000 tickets, I think that is the 2nd or 3rd closest the calc has been to the "actual number", since it has been available to use.

Lastly, there are no markets up for the next PB, and the MM is still -2750 for the "no jackpot winner" (not enough "buffer". so at the moment I won't be having a bet in the MM).

----
Other 2:

My estimate for the next PB is 18.1 to 19.1 million tickets (trying to get my "confidence back", so that is why I am putting up a "very small range" for the next PB).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 26, 2019
Wizard
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Wizard
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Thanks for this post from:
IndyJeffrey
December 26th, 2019 at 7:07:18 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Date: Dec 25
Lottery: PowerBall
Jackpot: 183M
Estimated sales: 17.49M
Probability of winner: 5.81%
Probability no winner: 94.19%
Fair line no winner: -1621
5 Dimes line: -1000
Player advantage: 3.61%
Wiz bet: $400 to win $40.

All due respect to ksd for the Christmas bump theory, but I'm in a gambling mood and am betting it anyway! May nobody win (hahahahha!!!). I am such a Christmas scrooge.



No Christmas day winner! I'm $40 richer.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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