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Ayecarumba
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December 4th, 2015 at 2:43:47 PM permalink
Why are the Saints only 7- 7.5 pt dogs to the Panthers? Doesn't Carolina deserve more respect after destroying Dallas by double digits?
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Wizard
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December 4th, 2015 at 3:38:58 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Why are the Saints only 7- 7.5 pt dogs to the Panthers? Doesn't Carolina deserve more respect after destroying Dallas by double digits?



One game is just one game. I'm sure I could quote others where they barely won to lousy teams.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Lucky1
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December 4th, 2015 at 4:20:15 PM permalink
Thanks for all the work with these parlay cards, can you direct me to a link where the information regarding how the basis points are figured?
Wizard
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December 4th, 2015 at 4:26:56 PM permalink
Quote: Lucky1

Thanks for all the work with these parlay cards, can you direct me to a link where the information regarding how the basis points are figured?



It is somewhere earlier in this thread. It is a function of the number of points moved, the value of the points, and whether the team is a favorite, underdog, or close to neutral (spread of -2.5 to +2.5).
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Lucky1
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December 4th, 2015 at 4:51:48 PM permalink
great, thanks!
TomG
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December 4th, 2015 at 8:32:27 PM permalink
There were some Lions 3.5 out there. Can't remember the last time I ever felt sick over losing a bet, especially since it wasn't worth much more that about $100 in equity. But when it's to win $5,000. . .

Pittsburgh, Seattle, New Orleans, all look good. Can also bet both sides of Chicago / San Francisco game
Wizard
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December 4th, 2015 at 8:51:09 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

Can't remember the last time I ever felt sick over losing a bet, ...



I had team to score first wins in the Det/GB game -- Big. What a sickening ending. Not just the ending, but how could Detroit blow a 20-0 lead half way through the third quarter? This will go down as one of the worst beats I've ever taken.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ibeatyouraces
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December 4th, 2015 at 8:53:24 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I had team to score first wins in the Det/GB game -- Big. What a sickening ending. Not just the ending, but how could Detroit blow a 20-0 lead half way through the third quarter? This will go down as one of the worst beats I've ever taken.


They find some new way to blow a game on every loss.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Pinit2winit
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December 4th, 2015 at 9:15:48 PM permalink
Can i buy points on the william hill phone app.?

EDIT : I called, you cannot. Only thing you can do
djatc
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December 4th, 2015 at 9:52:57 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I had team to score first wins in the Det/GB game -- Big. What a sickening ending. Not just the ending, but how could Detroit blow a 20-0 lead half way through the third quarter? This will go down as one of the worst beats I've ever taken.



If I turned off the game at halftime I wouldn't believe you that the Packers came back, not only that they won on the last play of the game for a 70 yarder pass by Aaron Rodgers.
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Ibeatyouraces
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December 4th, 2015 at 10:01:45 PM permalink
Quote: djatc

If I turned off the game at halftime I wouldn't believe you that the Packers came back, not only that they won on the last play of the game for a 70 yarder pass by Aaron Rodgers.


But because it was the Lions, it's completely believable!
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
djatc
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December 4th, 2015 at 11:24:53 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

But because it was the Lions, it's completely believable!



Could say the same for the Seahawks a few weeks ago until last weeks game. They managed to lose to a lead in the 4th quite often.
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SOOPOO
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December 5th, 2015 at 5:23:39 AM permalink
I think Houston +3.5 will be one of your strongest plays ever. I can't even begin to figure out this line. I thought Houston would be considered a far stronger team than Buffalo, and even on the road a few point favorite, likely 2.5. But somehow Buffalo is favored.... I have to believe by gametime the spread will move with Houston getting less than 3.
Wizard
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December 5th, 2015 at 7:31:02 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I think Houston +3.5 will be one of your strongest plays ever. I can't even begin to figure out this line. I thought Houston would be considered a far stronger team than Buffalo, and even on the road a few point favorite, likely 2.5. But somehow Buffalo is favored.... I have to believe by gametime the spread will move with Houston getting less than 3.



It is not that strong. The market has the line at Houston +3 (+110). So, the extra half point off of 3 is worth 21 basis points. Then subtract 20 because Houston is on the ugly side of +3 by 20 basis point. Finally, I'll give it 3 basis points for being an underdog. So, only 4 basis points.

Here is my usual table of the picks for this week with the market lines.

Underdog Favorite Market on Underdog
SF +6.5 Chicago 7
Clev +9.5 Cin 9
Jack +2.5 Tenn 2.5
Hou +3.5 Buffalo 3 (+110)
Bal +4.5 Miami 3.5
NO +7.5 Car 6.5
Sea +0.5 Min -2
StL +5.5 Ariz 4.5
Atl +1.5 TB 1
NYG +2.5 NYJ 2
SD +4.5 Den 3.5
Oak +2.5 KC 3 (-120)
Phil +9.5 NEP 9.5
Indy +5.5 Pitt 7 (EV)
Dal +4.5 Wash 4


Here are my favorite picks, from best to worst:

Pick Basis Points
NO +7.5 31
Bal +4.5 17
SD +4.5 17
Pitt -5.5 15
Sea +0.5 12
StL +5.5 11
Dal +4.5 10
KC -2.5 8
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DRich
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December 5th, 2015 at 7:31:57 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I had team to score first wins in the Det/GB game -- Big. What a sickening ending. Not just the ending, but how could Detroit blow a 20-0 lead half way through the third quarter? This will go down as one of the worst beats I've ever taken.



What was your reasoning for making a big bet on this? Did you find a particularly good line or was it more specific to these two teams?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Wizard
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December 5th, 2015 at 9:09:04 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

What was your reasoning for making a big bet on this? Did you find a particularly good line or was it more specific to these two teams?



That game had a spread of 3 and over/under of 47. My calculator put the fair line on that prop at -166. I found -140, which is a good value, so I bet it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ibeatyouraces
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December 5th, 2015 at 9:44:30 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

That game had a spread of 3 and over/under of 47. My calculator put the fair line on that prop at -166. I found -140, which is a good value, so I bet it.


But this is the Detroit Lions were talking about though. Better fix that calculator!!

Sorry, I just love ragging on this pathetic home team of mine :-)

Here's a text between me and a friend...

DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
cyberbabble
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December 5th, 2015 at 10:46:24 AM permalink
Wiz -
I'm not asking you to give up any secrets but I'm curious about how you develop your betting lines. I'm building some databases and I'm interested in techniques to use the data.

Where do you get your data? Do you collect it yourself or buy a database?

On something like "team that scores first, wins the game", do you just run through a database and count the results and then get a ratio of yes/no to calculate a line? Do you fit some type of regression curve using two variables, point spread and total, and get an estimate? Putting a line on this prop implies a database detailed enough to have info on each possession rather than just full game box score stats.

I would be very interested in your comments.
Thanks
Wizard
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December 5th, 2015 at 11:47:48 AM permalink
Quote: cyberbabble

Wiz -
I'm not asking you to give up any secrets but I'm curious about how you develop your betting lines. I'm building some databases and I'm interested in techniques to use the data.

Where do you get your data? Do you collect it yourself or buy a database?

On something like "team that scores first, wins the game", do you just run through a database and count the results and then get a ratio of yes/no to calculate a line? Do you fit some type of regression curve using two variables, point spread and total, and get an estimate? Putting a line on this prop implies a database detailed enough to have info on each possession rather than just full game box score stats.

I would be very interested in your comments.
Thanks



I buy some of the data I use but have hand-entered every score of every game since 2000. As far as I know, you can't buy data that would help you with a prop like "team to score first wins."

Then I indeed do some type of regression to see how each prop is correlated to the spread and total.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
TomG
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December 5th, 2015 at 12:51:10 PM permalink
The sportsbooks are the ones who have the best and most accurate databases. If you study their lines you can often get a feel for when something is off. This works very well when there isn't a true arbitrage. If one book has -180 on first score a touchdown and another has +175 on any other score, there is almost certainly a good bet available.
Wizard
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December 5th, 2015 at 3:46:34 PM permalink
My sources tell me that WH is really slow to accept cards with my picks this week.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Pinit2winit
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December 6th, 2015 at 12:42:45 AM permalink
I usually tail you hard but.... saints.... i Know there is value i just dont forsee that. Good luck all my parlay is not half point as i bet as soon as spreads were out... Panthers-7
Cards-6
Bengals-7
Chiefs-3 (even) 20 pays 440
rudeboyoi
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December 6th, 2015 at 2:16:40 AM permalink
I'm heaviest on 49ers +7.5, ravens +4.5, and saints +7.5 this week.
DRich
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December 6th, 2015 at 7:28:52 AM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

I usually tail you hard but.... saints.... i Know there is value i just dont forsee that. Good luck all my parlay is not half point as i bet as soon as spreads were out... Panthers-7
Cards-6
Bengals-7
Chiefs-3 (even) 20 pays 440



Where does a 4 teamer pay $440 for $20?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
DRich
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December 6th, 2015 at 7:28:52 AM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

I usually tail you hard but.... saints.... i Know there is value i just dont forsee that. Good luck all my parlay is not half point as i bet as soon as spreads were out... Panthers-7
Cards-6
Bengals-7
Chiefs-3 (even) 20 pays 440



Where does a 4 teamer pay $440 for $20?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
djatc
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December 6th, 2015 at 12:11:20 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

My sources tell me that WH is really slow to accept cards with my picks this week.



PITA this week. Got denied after one card lol
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rudeboyoi
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December 6th, 2015 at 3:28:34 PM permalink
Anyone get to see this? I was watching the game on gamecast. I had to do a double take. Expected to see the score 14-14. Next thing I knew it was 13-16.

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/2596424-saints-block-pat-become-1st-nfl-team-to-score-defensive-2-point-conversion?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=programming-league?is_shared=true#
Wizard
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December 6th, 2015 at 4:07:07 PM permalink
This is deserving of it's own thread. This thread is too screwed up to split it off so please don't reply here but look for the new thread on this topic.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
RonC
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December 6th, 2015 at 4:07:48 PM permalink
Quote: rudeboyoi

Anyone get to see this? I was watching the game on gamecast. I had to do a double take. Expected to see the score 14-14. Next thing I knew it was 13-16.

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/2596424-saints-block-pat-become-1st-nfl-team-to-score-defensive-2-point-conversion?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=programming-league?is_shared=true#



That was an interesting turn of events...fun to watch...
Wizard
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December 6th, 2015 at 4:16:45 PM permalink
Regarding the above two posts -- please discuss this topic here.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Pinit2winit
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December 6th, 2015 at 5:01:48 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Where does a 4 teamer pay $440 for $20?



William hill. i might have missread but chiefs was even money not -110
DRich
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December 6th, 2015 at 5:12:54 PM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

William hill. i might have missread but chiefs was even money not -110



You are definitely misreading your ticket. A four team parlay does not pay 22 to 1.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Pinit2winit
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December 6th, 2015 at 5:34:36 PM permalink
I might have been messing around with a 5th pick at the time. i know the odds. Brain fart i guess
NokTang
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December 6th, 2015 at 6:12:54 PM permalink
Quote: rudeboyoi

I'm heaviest on 49ers +7.5, ravens +4.5, and saints +7.5 this week.



Excellent. Enjoy your winnings. I hope the sports books don't start refusing to pay people.
z2newton
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December 6th, 2015 at 7:11:22 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

It is not that strong. The market has the line at Houston +3 (+110).



Are you using the 5dimes line? Why not the the VI consensus line (which is what I use) that supposedly includes the vegas and offshore lines? Is more not necessarily better?
Rigondeaux
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December 6th, 2015 at 8:34:41 PM permalink
The Pinnacle line is generally regarded as the single most accurate number.

Good week for me. I realized that when you have a couple numbers that are very far off, it's a good idea to do some big 3 teamers. Especially if there might be some correlation.

Just need to decide how much to hedge/middle (hiddle?) tomorrow. Boys +4.5 on the card, Skins -3.5 irl. I know 4 isn't a great middle, but might be enough to tempt me into chickening out a little.
Wizard
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December 7th, 2015 at 10:38:47 AM permalink
Quote: z2newton

Are you using the 5dimes line? Why not the the VI consensus line (which is what I use) that supposedly includes the vegas and offshore lines? Is more not necessarily better?



I should do that. I was previously eyeballing various big offshore lines as reported at VI.

In other news, I've got one 5-teamer riding on Dallas +4.5.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ayecarumba
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December 7th, 2015 at 11:10:46 AM permalink
Good luck to all tonight. I was really surprised by the Wizard's number on the Saints vs. the Panthers, but as happens more often than not, the Wizard was right!

As for the offshore books, I thought they were more aggressive, perhaps more than the group consensus, in order to attract business. However, does the increased volatility result in more or less accurate predictions? My gut says all it will do is open up the range of possible spreads and totals instead of dialing it in. On the other hand, my gut also said Carolina -10 would be right for Sunday's game. Perhaps I should stop eating so much fried chicken on Saturday, since I eat so much crow on Sunday...
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Pinit2winit
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December 7th, 2015 at 12:53:17 PM permalink
Good luck wizard! I've got no further bets as of now. Tonight's game is a little too risky for me.
Wizard
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December 7th, 2015 at 4:27:32 PM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

Good luck wizard! I've got no further bets as of now. Tonight's game is a little too risky for me.



Thanks! I've got a lot more riding on team to score first wins and a low number of field goals, especially Dallas field goals.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
z2newton
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December 7th, 2015 at 5:39:47 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

As for the offshore books, I thought they were more aggressive, perhaps more than the group consensus, in order to attract business. However, does the increased volatility result in more or less accurate predictions? My gut says all it will do is open up the range of possible spreads and totals instead of dialing it in.



I think in theory it should dial it in. Kind of like realclearpolitics.com's poll of polls which is several individual polls averaged together. RCP's poll of polls is usually within a few tenths of a % of the actual results. Although the VI consensus is just the most common (not average) line or spread.
This brings up a whole other topic of how a book makes its line. Suppose a book opens up with patriots -3 and 99 people come in and make $100 bets moving the line back and forth between -2.5 and -3.5. Then 1 guy comes in and bets $50,000 on the opponent. What does a book do in that situation? Are they moving lines solely based on money or number of people betting?
Ayecarumba
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December 7th, 2015 at 5:52:30 PM permalink
Quote: z2newton

I think in theory it should dial it in. Kind of like realclearpolitics.com's poll of polls which is several individual polls averaged together. RCP's poll of polls is usually within a few tenths of a % of the actual results. Although the VI consensus is just the most common (not average) line or spread.
This brings up a whole other topic of how a book makes its line. Suppose a book opens up with patriots -3 and 99 people come in and make $100 bets moving the line back and forth between -2.5 and -3.5. Then 1 guy comes in and bets $50,000 on the opponent. What does a book do in that situation? Are they moving lines solely based on money or number of people betting?



As I understand it, it is the money. The safest situation for the book is an equal amount of action on both sides of the contest. Big action on one side has got to move the line in order to attract more money to the other side. The riskiest time for a book is when they set the opening line and are way off the market.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
TomG
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December 7th, 2015 at 6:39:06 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

Good week for me. I realized that when you have a couple numbers that are very far off, it's a good idea to do some big 3 teamers. Especially if there might be some correlation.



You're giving up EV with very little benefit.

One three team parlay for $100 wins $550.

Or you could put all those three teams into 20 different $5 seven team tickets, then round robin the the last four games with anything that has a greater than 50% chance of winning (not hard to find when you can pick almost any game and get at least an extra half point). Win just one out of 20 (when true odds should be around 1 in 13) and you win $405. Win a few and the winnings will cover almost every other week of the season.

The real drawback is that no one wants to have to put in 20 tickets at William Hill (anywhere else you'll be fine for anything that low). I just accept that variance isn't that bad so long as the value goes up nicely.

Variance was pretty good this week. Won almost everything yesterday for few thousand, with some more riding on Dallas. Bought off just because I really liked Washington at home. Had about 20 different $5 tickets from Thursday with the Lions which would have had a few more winners if not for that crazy ending.
z2newton
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December 7th, 2015 at 10:13:10 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

As I understand it, it is the money. The safest situation for the book is an equal amount of action on both sides of the contest. Big action on one side has got to move the line in order to attract more money to the other side. The riskiest time for a book is when they set the opening line and are way off the market.



The patriots probably weren't the best example to use. I should have used a thinly bet prop.
In an ideal world the book wants equal action on both sides so it can have its 4.55% edge and not worry about the outcome. I'm asking what happens when it's not. The wizard has said before that sports books are a low margin business. Is that due to costs or because they typically get caught with unbalanced action? I'm thinking it's the latter.
We're using the books lines as a prediction market for these 1/2 point cards. If a line is a PK but 54% of the people betting are on one side that would be good to know. I'm wondering if there is a way to figure that out. I don't really know but do any online books show how much action(meaning number of people) are betting on one side? Probably not.

maybe I'm overthinking this.
teddys
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December 7th, 2015 at 11:15:58 PM permalink
Go 'Boys.
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beachbumbabs
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December 8th, 2015 at 2:21:54 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I should do that. I was previously eyeballing various big offshore lines as reported at VI.

In other news, I've got one 5-teamer riding on Dallas +4.5.



Nice Win!!!!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Mooseton
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December 8th, 2015 at 7:32:50 AM permalink
Quote: z2newton

<snip>
We're using the books lines as a prediction market for these 1/2 point cards. If a line is a PK but 54% of the people betting are on one side that would be good to know. I'm wondering if there is a way to figure that out. I don't really know but do any online books show how much action(meaning number of people) are betting on one side? Probably not.

maybe I'm overthinking this.

.
ScoresandOdds has a not very well explained Betting Trends area on the right side of the screen of this link.

scoresandodds
$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
Wizard
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December 8th, 2015 at 8:07:29 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Nice Win!!!!



Thanks!
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
z2newton
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December 8th, 2015 at 12:15:02 PM permalink
Quote: Mooseton

.
ScoresandOdds has a not very well explained Betting Trends area on the right side of the screen of this link.

scoresandodds



Thanks.
djatc
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December 8th, 2015 at 12:22:33 PM permalink
Going back to last week's betting; why is WH so reluctant to take any cards? Even people betting $3 were getting approval pending from the machine. Where they hit hard by the Wizard, or other sharp bettors?
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
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