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Pinit2winit
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October 30th, 2015 at 2:29:13 PM permalink
I took ten +5.5 and under 45.5.
Rams -8.5
Cards -5.5
Clemson -10.5
Duke -7.5
Kansas +39.5

Total was 255 for 25500 payout. Good luck to all. This was a 10 person bet and we pitched in between 5 and 50 each. This was at Aliante by the way.
beachbumbabs
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October 30th, 2015 at 2:38:59 PM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

I took ten +5.5 and under 45.5.
Rams -8.5
Cards -5.5
Clemson -10.5
Duke -7.5
Kansas +39.5

Total was 255 for 25500 payout. Good luck to all. This was a 10 person bet and we pitched in between 5 and 50 each. This was at Aliante by the way.



Hope you rock it! Let us know either way, please. (I don't follow NCAA)
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
NokTang
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October 30th, 2015 at 7:10:45 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here is the week 8 William Hill card. Please note the "market" prices are as of 2:00 PM PST on Friday.

William Hill Market
Lions +4.5 3.5
Bears +0.5 1
TB +7.5 +7 -120
NYG +3.5 +3.5 -120
49ers +8.5 8.5
Browns +5.5 5.5
Steelers +1.5 PK
SD +3.5 3.5
Ten +3.5 4.5
Oak +2.5 +3 -120
Dal +6.5 5.5
Denver +2.5 +2.5 EV
Indy +6.5 6.5


Not a very strong card this week. As of this writing the strongest plays are:

Lions +4.5
TB +7.5
NYG +3.5
Pit +1.5
Hou -4.5 (vs. Ten)
NYJ -2.5 (vs. Oak)
Dal +6



Thanks. I like the format, not sure how much valuable time it takes to present it that way...

Quick question: Is that a typo on the Houston line? It is a "strong" play because they are "only" - 3 1/2 vs a market of - 4 1/2 I think, if I understand your basic logic in making said picks and plays?(and Dallas would be plus 6 1/2 as well?) I have also "read" that the Pittsburgh line move reflects the prospects of the quarterback being in good health knee wise or maybe just money moving it thinking same. Many thanks and regards.
Wizard
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October 30th, 2015 at 7:55:40 PM permalink
Quote: NokTang

Quick question: Is that a typo on the Houston line? It is a "strong" play because they are "only" - 3 1/2 vs a market of - 4 1/2 I think, if I understand your basic logic in making said picks and plays?(and Dallas would be plus 6 1/2 as well?) I have also "read" that the Pittsburgh line move reflects the prospects of the quarterback being in good health knee wise or maybe just money moving it thinking same. Many thanks and regards.



Thanks, yes, I meant Hou -3.5 as a pick. Yes, Dal +6.5 too.

Here are is my list of picks as of Friday evening:

84 TB +7.5
100 Pit +1.5
107 Hou 3.5
111 NYJ 2.5
116 Dal +6.5
119 GB 2.5
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ayecarumba
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October 31st, 2015 at 12:24:24 AM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

I took ten +5.5 and under 45.5.
Rams -8.5
Cards -5.5
Clemson -10.5
Duke -7.5
Kansas +39.5

Total was 255 for 25500 payout. Good luck to all. This was a 10 person bet and we pitched in between 5 and 50 each. This was at Aliante by the way.



I wish you well, but I am uneasy about the Rams at -8.5. You are giving up one of the "magic" numbers (7). Why that pick?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Pinit2winit
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October 31st, 2015 at 12:42:52 AM permalink
It was a group pick. All of us think the rams are going to run up kapernick.
Pinit2winit
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October 31st, 2015 at 1:24:45 AM permalink
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Pinit2winit
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October 31st, 2015 at 4:30:16 PM permalink
well G** Dam* OU scored 62 and covered by a lot.... interesting bet while it lasted, off to make wiz's picks. GL all
DRich
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November 1st, 2015 at 6:48:16 AM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

well G** Dam* OU scored 62 and covered by a lot.... interesting bet while it lasted, off to make wiz's picks. GL all



I hope you realize that the Wizard is saying you should bet the parlays with those teams only if you find those numbers or better. Hopefully you have a William Hill nearby.
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GWAE
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November 1st, 2015 at 11:03:53 AM permalink
Well hopefully your pit bet holds with bell messing up his acl/mcl
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Wizard
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November 6th, 2015 at 10:58:00 AM permalink
Here is the week 9 William Hill card. The market lines are as of 11:00 AM PST on Friday, so certain to move.

Underdog Favorite Market on Underdog
Oak +4.5 Pitts 4
Jags +6.5 NYJ 7.5
Rams +2.5 Minn 2
Miami +2.5 Buff 3 (-120)
Titans +8.5 NO 7.5
Wash +13.5 Pats 14
Panthers +2.5 GB 2.5 (-120)
SF +6.5 Atlanta 7 (-115)
TB +2.5 NYG 2.5
Indy +5.5 Denver 5
Dal +2.5 Phily 3
Chic +4.5 SD 4


As of this writing my picks are:

Oak +4.5
NYJ -6.5
Buff -2.5
Atlanta -6.5
Phily -2.5
Chic +4.5
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ibeatyouraces
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November 6th, 2015 at 11:30:55 AM permalink
Here's a comment I read on a Yahoo article after the Lions fired their president and G.M.

"The Lions have a bye week for week 9. The bye is favored by 14 points."
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Ayecarumba
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November 6th, 2015 at 11:34:24 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here is the week 9 William Hill card. The market lines are as of 11:00 AM PST on Friday, so certain to move.

Underdog Favorite Market on Underdog
Oak +4.5 Pitts 4
Jags +6.5 NYJ 7.5
Rams +2.5 Minn 2
Miami +2.5 Buff 3 (-120)
Titans +8.5 NO 7.5
Wash +13.5 Pats 14
Panthers +2.5 GB 2.5 (-120)
SF +6.5 Atlanta 7 (-115)
TB +2.5 NYG 2.5
Indy +5.5 Denver 5
Dal +2.5 Phily 3
Chic +4.5 SD 4


As of this writing my picks are:

Oak +4.5
NYJ -6.5
Buff -2.5
Atlanta -6.5
Phily -2.5
Chic +4.5



Is New England -13.5 way too much to cover, or only marginal?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Wizard
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November 6th, 2015 at 11:57:56 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Is New England -13.5 way too much to cover, or only marginal?



I'll let the handicappers answer that one. My philosophy is anybody can beat sports betting without handicapping or even knowing much about sports to begin with.

That game is not on my list because a half point is not worth much off of 14.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ayecarumba
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November 6th, 2015 at 4:13:27 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'll let the handicappers answer that one. My philosophy is anybody can beat sports betting without handicapping or even knowing much about sports to begin with.

That game is not on my list because a half point is not worth much off of 14.



Thanks Wizard. When does it become valuable? My guess is half a point off of 10 is still marginal, so maybe 7 is the only number with value.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
SOOPOO
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November 6th, 2015 at 4:15:16 PM permalink
7 and 3 are most valuable.
Ayecarumba
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November 6th, 2015 at 4:20:41 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here are my updated picks based on the WH card:

Jack 5.5
NYJ 9.5
Atlanta -4.5
Tampa 3.5
Oakland 4.5
Dallas 3.5
Phil 3.5
Arizona -7.5

May the odds be forever in your favor.



Hmm, looking back a bit, maybe half off of 10 can be a good play. Don't know what the board number moved to though.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Wizard
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November 6th, 2015 at 4:25:53 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Thanks Wizard. When does it become valuable? My guess is half a point off of 10 is still marginal, so maybe 7 is the only number with value.



Please see my Alternate Point Spreads in the NFL

However, briefly, here is how may basis points you should lay to get an extra half point of each spread.

Spread Basis Points
1 4
2 4
3 21
4 7
5 4
6 7
7 14
8 5
9 2
10 11
11 5
12 3
13 5
14 10
15 3
16 5
17 8
18 6
19 4
20 3
21 10


In writing up this table, I realize I should have put Patriots -13.5 on my picks list.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Pinit2winit
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November 7th, 2015 at 12:53:23 AM permalink
Can i walk into the Sierra Gold and use the mobile kiosk for william hill without setting up an account just like i can at a casino sports book?
teddys
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November 7th, 2015 at 3:58:07 AM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

Can i walk into the Sierra Gold and use the mobile kiosk for william hill without setting up an account just like i can at a casino sports book?

Yes.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Wizard
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November 7th, 2015 at 6:05:59 AM permalink
Here is my updated table as of 6:00 AM on Saturday.

Underdog Favorite Market on Underdog
Oak +4.5 Pitts 4.5
Jags +6.5 NYJ 7.5
Rams +2.5 Minn 1.5
Miami +2.5 Buff 3 (-120)
Titans +8.5 NO 7.5
Wash +13.5 Pats 14
Panthers +2.5 GB 2.5 (-120)
SF +6.5 Atlanta 7
TB +2.5 NYG 2.5
Indy +5.5 Denver 5.5
Dal +2.5 Phily 3
Chic +4.5 SD 4.5


Picks:

NYJ -6.5
Rams +2.5
Buff -2.5
Titans +8.5
Atlanta -6.5
Phily -2.5
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Pinit2winit
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November 7th, 2015 at 12:05:09 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

Yes.



Thank you
Pinit2winit
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November 8th, 2015 at 2:37:18 AM permalink
This is actually not the case. I went to sierra gold and it was requesting i log into my william hill account to bet. maybe it just wasnt a place to bet, it did say mobile deposit kiosk.... shitty for me.
teddys
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November 8th, 2015 at 6:57:30 AM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

This is actually not the case. I went to sierra gold and it was requesting i log into my william hill account to bet. maybe it just wasnt a place to bet, it did say mobile deposit kiosk.... shitty for me.

You should be able to make bets without logging into an account.

Pittsburgh has moved to a 5.5 point favorite against Oakland, so it may be worth adding them to your cards at -4.5 if for some reason you need more picks, or you are a Steelers fan.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
teddys
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November 8th, 2015 at 9:57:56 AM permalink
I tried to bet five cards for $50 each at the William Hill kiosk at The D ten minutes to kickoff and was rejected. Just goes to show you to get your bets in early.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Wizard
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November 8th, 2015 at 10:33:09 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

I tried to bet five cards for $50 each at the William Hill kiosk at The D ten minutes to kickoff and was rejected. Just goes to show you to get your bets in early.



Do you think it was your picks or that they locked out all cards this close to kickoff?

You probably saved money as StL +2.5 is not looking good at a score of 0-10 as of this writing.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
teddys
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November 8th, 2015 at 10:59:18 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard


You probably saved money as StL +2.5 is not looking good at a score of 0-10 as of this writing.

Nicely done. You must have reverse-jinxed them.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Wonko33
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November 8th, 2015 at 11:19:11 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

Nicely done. You must have reverse-jinxed them.



yup they are ahead by 2 now
So Wizard, still no basic strategy for strip poker huh?
Wizard
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November 8th, 2015 at 11:57:48 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

Nicely done. You must have reverse-jinxed them.



Since that seemed to work, let me add that you can be glad you didn't bet because I'm sure you would have picked NYJ -6.5, and they are up only 4.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
teddys
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November 8th, 2015 at 12:05:15 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Since that seemed to work, let me add that you can be glad you didn't bet because I'm sure you would have picked NYJ -6.5, and they are up only 4.

I would have picked the Steelers -4.5.

But if this keeps working I want a cut of the winnings :)
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Pinit2winit
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November 8th, 2015 at 12:13:56 PM permalink
http://www.pteglv.com/sports-betting here is a link to the specific ones at the pts group. It looks like those specific ones are only for mobile deposit. Good info though I'll have to find one nearby that isn't at one of those or open an account.
teddys
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November 8th, 2015 at 12:22:06 PM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

http://www.pteglv.com/sports-betting here is a link to the specific ones at the pts group. It looks like those specific ones are only for mobile deposit. Good info though I'll have to find one nearby that isn't at one of those or open an account.

Did you check the card at Aliante? They offer the same payouts as WH. I'm not sure if the lines are the same, though.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Pinit2winit
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November 8th, 2015 at 12:31:45 PM permalink
I have bets through them yes but I constantly see better spreads at willIam hill and definatly faster to update.
Wizard
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November 8th, 2015 at 12:40:40 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

Did you check the card at Aliante? They offer the same payouts as WH. I'm not sure if the lines are the same, though.



They are different lines. I've had no problem getting cards in there what little I've tried. The location is way out in the sticks.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
teddys
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November 8th, 2015 at 1:02:56 PM permalink
Okay, your Jets prayers have been answered. At the moment 4-5 including my Steelers pick which I don't think anybody made. Just need the Rams to come through for a nice across the board W.

Edit: Auuuggh!
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
djatc
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November 8th, 2015 at 1:42:11 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

I tried to bet five cards for $50 each at the William Hill kiosk at The D ten minutes to kickoff and was rejected. Just goes to show you to get your bets in early.



Never tried the kiosk but if it's WH I usually have a route: Binions, 4Q, then the D. Divide your action by 3 and adjust for time so get there about 1.5 hours before kickoff so you can get all of them in, unless your only betting >5 cards or so.

The 25-1 payouts are at WH, SP or Cannery, or GN. Downtown can usually cover 2 of the 3, so now you just need someone to cover SP or Cannery. Eastside is preferred since you can run down to Longhorn if you must make a WH bet.

As for Aliante.....

"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Pinit2winit
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November 8th, 2015 at 2:20:10 PM permalink
i live .75 miles from aliante. Aint no body got time for the eastside cannery or the D

Edit: i will be making an account with william hill for sure so i can use the mobile app and deposit at the Sierra Gold up here.
Wizard
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November 13th, 2015 at 1:23:05 PM permalink
Time for week 10! Here is the William Hill card:

Underdog Favorite Market on Underdog
Det +11.5 GB 10.5
Dal +1.5 TB 1.5
Titans +5.5 Car 5
Bears +7.5 StL 7 (-105)
Wash +0.5 NO PK
Miami +6.5 Phil 5.5
Clev +4.5 Pitt 5.5
Jags +5.5 Bal 5.5
Minn +3.5 Oak 3 (-120)
KC +6.5 Den 5.5
NYG +7.5 NEP 7 (-105)
Ariz +3.5 Sea 3 (-105)
Hou +10.5 Cin 10.5


Here my picks as of 1:00 PM on Friday:

Pick Basis Points
Det +11.5 13
Chic +7.5 12
Miami +6.5 11
Minn +3.5 14
KC +6.5 17
NYG +7.5 12
Ariz +3.5 18


The points is a measure of how good the pick is. You need to get to a total of 54 basis points for a pick 5, 6, or 7 card to good.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Pinit2winit
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November 13th, 2015 at 2:10:25 PM permalink
Good luck! im in it with you this week Michael!
DRich
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November 13th, 2015 at 2:46:31 PM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

I have bets through them yes but I constantly see better spreads at willIam hill and definatly faster to update.



Wow, we must bet opposite sides because it seems to me that William Hill always has the worst number.
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djatc
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November 14th, 2015 at 12:55:18 AM permalink
I have GB -11.5 on a straight bet..... Hope this doesn't screw up my half points.

Also I think you said on your sports betting page underdogs usually get better value. Is this the reason why your picks are more dogs then the favorites?
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Pinit2winit
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November 14th, 2015 at 1:49:52 AM permalink
Than Aliante? It differs but i must only think that because of game X i saw had 1 point better at WH. I am just biased i guess :D
Pinit2winit
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November 14th, 2015 at 1:52:45 AM permalink
Look at it this way.... the jets were favored by 5.5 and lost by 5. Thats a 10 point difference in the ending score to what the jets couldve scored and you still won your bet. Thats why it is wise to go with the points on an even matched team. All things then come into effect. Attitudes, weather, home field, points etc etc. All of these highly effect the outcome of a game. Also, The last quarter if say Pats are up 28 and the spread is 14.5, they don't care about the spread. The other team does however care about winning and will try until the last second. My friends and i have a codename for this time period "Garbage time" where most favored bets tend to lose.

Edit: Isn't the total points difference between the last 3 times the Lions lost to GB combined only 13?
Wizard
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November 14th, 2015 at 6:21:59 AM permalink
Updated market lines as of 6:00 AM on Saturday

Underdog Favorite Market on Underdog
Det +11.5 GB 10.5
Dal +1.5 TB 1
Titans +5.5 Car 4
Bears +7.5 StL 7 (-120)
Wash +0.5 NO PK
Miami +6.5 Phil 6
Clev +4.5 Pitt 5.5
Jags +5.5 Bal 5
Minn +3.5 Oak 3 (-120)
KC +6.5 Den 5.5
NYG +7.5 NEP 7 (EV)
Ariz +3.5 Sea 3 (-115)
Hou +10.5 Cin 10.5


Here are my picks:

Pick Basis Points
Titans +5.5 18
Bears +7.5 27
Minn +3.5 34
KC +6.5 17
Ariz +3.5 29
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ibeatyouraces
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November 14th, 2015 at 6:25:11 AM permalink
GB is only favored by that much??? I expect a blowout against these sad Lions.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
z2newton
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November 14th, 2015 at 5:25:20 PM permalink
Thanks Wizard.

How are these basis points calculated? And what do they mean?
Wonko33
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November 14th, 2015 at 5:47:40 PM permalink
Quote: z2newton

Thanks Wizard.

How are these basis points calculated? And what do they mean?

ss
Go read the sports betting page here or on wizardofodds webpage
So Wizard, still no basic strategy for strip poker huh?
Wizard
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November 14th, 2015 at 8:01:40 PM permalink
Here are market lines as of 8:00 PM PST on Saturday.

Underdog Favorite Market on Underdog
Det +11.5 GB 10.5
Dal +1.5 TB PK
Titans +5.5 Car 4
Bears +7.5 StL 6.5
Wash +0.5 NO PK
Miami +6.5 Phil 6
Clev +4.5 Pitt 6
Jags +5.5 Bal 4.5
Minn +3.5 Oak 3 (-120)
KC +6.5 Den 4.5
NYG +7.5 NEP 7 (EV)
Ariz +3.5 Sea 3 (-115)
Hou +10.5 Cin 11


My picks. Steelers and Jags should be used as fillers only.

Pick Basis Points
Titans +5.5 31
Bears +7.5 27
Minn +3.5 34
KC +6.5 25
Ariz +3.5 29
Pitt -4.5 12
Jags +5.5 11
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Pinit2winit
Pinit2winit
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 249
Joined: Sep 8, 2015
November 14th, 2015 at 11:21:25 PM permalink
Sooooo i teased a 7 pick em by 10 points... 100 to win 450....
bucks +9
rams +2.5
panthers +5.5
Eagles +3.5
Jaguars +15.5
vikings +13.5
chiefs +16.5

Thoughts? I accidentally bet on the jets 100 during an in play bet scout on the mobile app (no confirmation screen on in play just bets it for you) so i figured i could do this instead of the 250 bet i was going to place.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1497
  • Posts: 26679
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
November 15th, 2015 at 3:00:09 PM permalink
Titans +5.5 was a huge card killer for me, putting me at 3-1 on games resolved so far. If Bears +7.5 and Minn +3.5 cover, which are looking good, I'll have two live cards hinging on Ariz +3.5.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
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