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Lucky1
Lucky1
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September 16th, 2015 at 6:26:31 AM permalink
great, thanks!
Mission146
Mission146
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September 16th, 2015 at 1:27:50 PM permalink
UPDATE:

Six Point Plays: 6 (One Blocked PAT, Three PATs Missed)

Seven Point Plays: 71

Eight Point Plays: 4

PATs improve to 94.67% for an average value of 0.9467 points. 2PTs hold at 66.67% for a value of 1.333 points.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 17th, 2015 at 11:21:14 AM permalink
Here is your first look at the week 2 William Hill card. As usual, click on the image for a larger version.



This was posted on Thursday as 11:30 AM. As I write this there are only three good sides:

Houston +3.5 (market is +3 EV)
SD +3.5 (market is +3)
Indy -6.5 (market is -7 EV)

I've been criticized off the forum for betting these too early. So, out of necessity this time, I'm going to give it more time to let the lines mature. I'll probably put in my cards Saturday night or Sunday morning, assuming more sides ripen.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Lucky1
Lucky1
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September 17th, 2015 at 3:32:19 PM permalink
I suppose it makes sense to wait until Sat night or Sunday morning since the closing line should be considered the sharpest, but waiting until then could work against you as well....if it moves too much they may not even take the bet. Say Indy moved to -11 (extreme example) they wouldn't take those cards before kickoff but would take them today only being off half a point.
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 17th, 2015 at 3:57:10 PM permalink
Quote: Lucky1

....if it moves too much they may not even take the bet. Say Indy moved to -11 (extreme example) they wouldn't take those cards before kickoff but would take them today only being off half a point.



I don't see them take NFL games off very often, but do college. Another reason against betting late is there is more heat. Just try betting late at the Rampart and you'll get two cards approved, at best.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Mission146
Mission146
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September 17th, 2015 at 7:28:03 PM permalink
http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/Much-Ado-About-Two/

This is my new Article about whether or not I expect the new NFL PAT Rule to significantly change spread or totals betting.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Lucky1
Lucky1
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September 17th, 2015 at 10:43:45 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I don't see them take NFL games off very often, but do college. Another reason against betting late is there is more heat. Just try betting late at the Rampart and you'll get two cards approved, at best.

yes, good point
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 19th, 2015 at 11:38:51 AM permalink
As I write this on Saturday at 11:30 AM it looks like a bad week. The only three solid plays are:

Hou +3.5
SD +3.5
Wash +3.5

I'm going to sit out week #2.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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September 19th, 2015 at 9:31:18 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

As I write this on Saturday at 11:30 AM it looks like a bad week. The only three solid plays are:

Hou +3.5
SD +3.5
Wash +3.5

I'm going to sit out week #2.


Why did IND -6.5 get eliminated? Maybe throw in a total to complete the 5-teamer. Perhaps add BAL/OAK under 43.5?

Hou +3.5
SD +3.5
Wash +3.5
Ind -6.5
BAL/OAK under 43.5

**Edited to fix error**
NokTang
NokTang
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September 20th, 2015 at 2:01:56 AM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Why did IND -6.5 get eliminated? What about SAN +3.5 or maybe throw in a total to complete the 5-teamer. Perhaps add BAL/OAK under 43.5?

Hou +3.5
SD +3.5
Wash +3.5
Ind -6.5
SAN +3.5 or BAL/OAK under 43.5

Just curious...



Also curious what's wrong with a three team parlay?

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