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Lucky1
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October 12th, 2015 at 3:02:46 PM permalink
cool, thanks. Didn't realize +1 to +2.5 was a key enough number. Good luck tonight!
Frogger
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October 12th, 2015 at 5:29:32 PM permalink
Quote: Lucky1

cool, thanks. Didn't realize +1 to +2.5 was a key enough number. Good luck tonight!




I'm surprised too. Good pick. Perhaps he had an opinion and the extra points pushed it over the fence
kewlj
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October 12th, 2015 at 8:39:23 PM permalink
WoW! what an exciting finish. Congrats again, Mr Mike.
djatc
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October 12th, 2015 at 8:42:26 PM permalink
With this week producing great results for those that followed the wizards bets, my question is do people usually get heat for cashing winning tickets?
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Wizard
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October 12th, 2015 at 8:43:10 PM permalink
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

I hope as many of you as possible rode my coattails.

The question I ask myself at a time like this is should I be happy for the bigger win, or mad at myself for partially hedging?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
cyberbabble
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October 12th, 2015 at 8:43:48 PM permalink
There are reasons why he is called the Wizard
djatc
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October 12th, 2015 at 8:47:51 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

I hope as many of you as possible rode my coattails.

The question I ask myself at a time like this is should I be happy for the bigger win, or mad at myself for partially hedging?



I say you can't take the results of the outcome into play. How did you feel hedging before Kickoff?
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
kewlj
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October 12th, 2015 at 9:04:16 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard


The question I ask myself at a time like this is should I be happy for the bigger win, or mad at myself for partially hedging?



Don't do that to yourself. I know you are not a professional gambler, although you certainly could be if you desired, but one lesson we professional gamblers learn early on is to not put yourself through that second guessing crap. You make the best decision you can, and you move on.

For what it's worth, I think you made the right decision. Pittsburgh clearly wasn't the better team on that field. The stats are very lopsided. A couple big plays and SD playing poorly kept Pittsburgh in the game. SD should have won by a couple scores. You wouldn't be second guessing if that had occurred. Enjoy the win...don't second guess yourself. :)
Wizard
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October 12th, 2015 at 9:05:16 PM permalink
Quote: djatc

I say you can't take the results of the outcome into play. How did you feel hedging before Kickoff?



I was fine with it. I got good numbers on the hedge. Looking at it totally mathematically, I shouldn't have hedged, but despite what some people think, I am more than a walking calculator. I wanted to end the day with a win either way. Doing a partial hedge I think is a good way to balance maximizing expected win and expected happiness.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Lucky1
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October 13th, 2015 at 6:28:39 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I was fine with it. I got good numbers on the hedge. Looking at it totally mathematically, I shouldn't have hedged, but despite what some people think, I am more than a walking calculator. I wanted to end the day with a win either way. Doing a partial hedge I think is a good way to balance maximizing expected win and expected happiness.



Nice job and well said with balancing expected happiness. Could be similar to paying off a house or car or something of that nature when depending on the interest rate the math may make sense to not pay off, but the expected happiness makes it worth it.
SOOPOO
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October 13th, 2015 at 8:29:43 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I hedged 28.6%. Normally I'm a Charger fan but hope they go down in flames tonight so I don't even have to sweat it.

Tell your GF to be prepared for a trivia barrage at dinner. Some math and logic puzzles too. She hasn't seen anything yet!



She is ready. By the way, Son of SooPoo said he got 10 out of 15 on your last trivia test. Unfortunately he works too hard at school to take a vacation in Vegas.

Anyway... with regards to this thread.... It is so nice to see you turn the +EV you have identified into real cash. See you soon...
Pinit2winit
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October 13th, 2015 at 2:07:40 PM permalink
@Wizard, going to release your picks for the week before the thursday game since it looks to be pretty good considering the Falcons are on a Roll?
Wizard
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October 13th, 2015 at 5:00:57 PM permalink
Quote: Lucky1

Nice job and well said with balancing expected happiness. Could be similar to paying off a house or car or something of that nature when depending on the interest rate the math may make sense to not pay off, but the expected happiness makes it worth it.



Thank you. Funny you mentioned paying off a house. I have been largely criticized for paying off my house when I sold my sites but I make no apologies. There is nothing safe that pays anything close to the 3.5% interest rate I was paying and my track record with riskier investments is pretty poor. Rather just get that debt off my plate and not stress over how to otherwise invest the money. Two less things to worry about.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
HowMany
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October 13th, 2015 at 5:32:20 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thank you. Funny you mentioned paying off a house. I have been largely criticized for paying off my house when I sold my sites but I make no apologies. There is nothing safe that pays anything close to the 3.5% interest rate I was paying and my track record with riskier investments is pretty poor. Rather just get that debt off my plate and not stress over how to otherwise invest the money. Two less things to worry about.



Well done, Wizard. I have NEVER heard anyone say "Damn, I wish I didn't pay off my house."

And if you're the first to regret it, you can always go out and borrow against it in the future.
Wizard
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October 13th, 2015 at 5:35:22 PM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

@Wizard, going to release your picks for the week before the thursday game since it looks to be pretty good considering the Falcons are on a Roll?



No. They don't put the Thursday game on the cards. At least at William Hill.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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October 13th, 2015 at 5:39:48 PM permalink
Quote: HowMany

Well done, Wizard. I have NEVER heard anyone say "Damn, I wish I didn't pay off my house."

And if you're the first to regret it, you can always go out and borrow against it in the future.



Thank you. I could see regretting it if interest rates went up, or you really needed the money for something, but I don't see either of those things happening.

Besides, I'm very anti-debt. Maybe it is easy for me to say, but I strongly believe in living within your means and borrowing only for a home and useful education, if you can help it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
beachbumbabs
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October 13th, 2015 at 5:46:40 PM permalink
MAJOR congrats on the huge parlay win! WooHoo!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Pinit2winit
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October 13th, 2015 at 9:03:05 PM permalink
Ahhh aliante has thursdays. Good to know!
wudged
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October 15th, 2015 at 1:41:24 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

No. They don't put the Thursday game on the cards. At least at William Hill.



They list the games in date order - Thursday NFL is first on the list. Here is week 6:

Mission146
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October 16th, 2015 at 6:45:26 PM permalink
The first thing I would like to do is congratulate the Wizard, and followers, of a very successful week last week!

UPDATED STATS:

(These do not include the Thursday night game played last night)

SIX POINT PLAYS: 39 (Four Blocked PAT's, Sixteen PAT's Missed, one PAT Aborted)

SEVEN POINT PLAYS: 346

EIGHT POINT PLAYS: 17

Going into this Week 5, the average number of successful PAT's, per week, was 3.75, but we only saw two successful attempts this week. Compare that to five failed 2PT Conversions, and overall, it was a bad week for 2PT Conversions. For the first time this year, the success rate drops below fifty percent with 17 successful 2PT against eighteen failed for 48.57% and an Expected Value of .9714 Points.

In the meantime, with only two failed PAT's this week, we see an improvement to 346 successes against 21 failures, or, a 94.28% success rate for .9428 Expected Points.

We notice that the 2PT Conversion actually still has a greater Expected Point Value, but that value is less than one point for the first time this year, and the sample size is still quite limited.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
TomG
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October 16th, 2015 at 7:47:40 PM permalink
Did very well on NFL last week. Unfortunately all it did was cover losses on everything else. Lost pretty much every college football and NHL bet the past two weeks. Had already conceded to one of the worst weeks ever, but then the Bengals came back to save us all

Saints already covered, so that leaves Detroit, Buffalo, Kansas City, and both sides of the Carolina / Seattle game as the top NFL plays left this week. If I bet again, might have to take New England -7.5, just because I could have way too much on Indianapolis +9 if Saturday games go well.

There is nothing wrong with buying off when you're overexposed. I would even argue that if you never find yourself in a position where hedging bets is the correct move you're actually losing profit. Just make sure it is a good price. If you can find it for break-even, it really doesn't matter. Even if losing 2% and giving yourself a middle, at least you're giving yourself the chance to make more good bets in the future. If losing 4.5%, it's very bad
TomG
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October 16th, 2015 at 7:59:27 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Congratulations Wizard! Is it typical to have mostly losing weeks covered by one or two big hits each season; or is the typical season more like weekly 52% wins on the round robin covering 48% losses?



They're parlays. Even the weeks you see the highest EV of the year it's still most likely to every bet will lose (if you're maximizing value). Some of the people betting the biggest on these are looking for that one big week that only comes around every other year. (Not sure if NFL week 5 was it this year as I haven't been too close with them this year). I do know of the Colts and under on Monday night in 2010 giving one group of bettors a near seven figure win; and another similar win in 2012 when the replacement refs gave Seattle a touchdown on the last play.
AxelWolf
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October 16th, 2015 at 8:28:12 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

They're parlays. Even the weeks you see the highest EV of the year it's still most likely to every bet will lose (if you're maximizing value). Some of the people betting the biggest on these are looking for that one big week that only comes around every other year.

This is fairly accurate. Lets hope for more weeks like last week. So close to a middle unfortunately someone (you know who you are)may have jinxed us with an overly confident attitude. Lesson learned ......NO SHLEPROCKS http://www.disableddaughter.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/shleprock.gif J/K we already have a Shleprock (you know who you are)
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Pinit2winit
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October 17th, 2015 at 9:46:10 PM permalink
Any picks this week guys? Parlay wise
hailtotheskins
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October 18th, 2015 at 12:59:36 AM permalink
I got Chi +3 and a hook, ARZ minus same, and NYG plus 5.5 on one. Broncos minus 3.5, Cin-3, Miami +3, Jax -2 on another.
NokTang
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October 18th, 2015 at 5:44:39 AM permalink
Where are the Wizard's picks? Did the casino's get to him or is he ill or what? Very concerned....
Rigondeaux
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October 18th, 2015 at 10:53:59 AM permalink
There were almost too many this week. It's nice to hear from the Wizard but his real gift was sharing the play. It's not super hard to find good sides. Just compare the sides on the card to an odds aggregator. These have started now, but here are a few for the record I guess.

NE -7.5 (-9 to -10 closing numbers)
Det -2.5 (-3.5)
Buf +3.5 (+3)
Jets -6.5 (-7.5)
Sea -6.5 (-7)
KC +4.5 (+3.5)
Cleav +4.5 (+3.5)
Wizard
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October 18th, 2015 at 2:07:27 PM permalink
Sorry I didn't post any picks this week. As Rx said, the theory is quite simple to do it yourself. I've explained it numerous times.

I see Rx's picks have gone 3-2 on games resolved as of this writing. Keep the faith!
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
z2newton
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October 23rd, 2015 at 3:55:23 PM permalink
Hopefully someone will post a card for this week.
Wizard
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October 23rd, 2015 at 4:40:16 PM permalink
I'm not able to post the card but have seen it. Here are my picks. The market line is in parenthesis.

NyJ +9.5 (7.5)
Atl -4.5 (-6)
Tb 3.5 (3.5 -120)
No 4.5 (4)
Oak 4.5 (3.5)
Phil 3.5 (3 -105)

The pit Kc game says "tbd". I don't know what they settled on.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Keeneone
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October 23rd, 2015 at 11:23:44 PM permalink
SouthPoint card from Thursday 10/22...
Pinit2winit
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October 24th, 2015 at 1:43:18 PM permalink
Good Luck with the picks this week everyone!
Wizard
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October 25th, 2015 at 2:40:45 AM permalink
Here are my updated picks based on the WH card:

Jack 5.5
NYJ 9.5
Atlanta -4.5
Tampa 3.5
Oakland 4.5
Dallas 3.5
Phil 3.5
Arizona -7.5

May the odds be forever in your favor.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
teddys
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October 25th, 2015 at 10:21:02 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

May the odds be forever in your favor.

That's good, that should be your new signature.

Oh, wait, you didn't come up with that? :)
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Mooseton
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October 26th, 2015 at 2:57:34 PM permalink
I have Arizona tonight as the last leg on one of my 1/2 point cards. Line moved to AZ -10 from -7.5. Ticket will pay $520 if AZ covers -7.5. I was going to hedge but then the middle opportunity showed up. I've got no experience with arbitrage. What's the maxEV hedge/middle here? Thanks ahead.
$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
SOOPOO
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October 26th, 2015 at 4:21:10 PM permalink
Quote: Mooseton

I have Arizona tonight as the last leg on one of my 1/2 point cards. Line moved to AZ -10 from -7.5. Ticket will pay $520 if AZ covers -7.5. I was going to hedge but then the middle opportunity showed up. I've got no experience with arbitrage. What's the maxEV hedge/middle here? Thanks ahead.



If I understand you correctly, you have Az -7.5 at 'zero' cost to pay $520
And you now can get Bal + 10 paying the usual 11-10.

I'd bet 220 to win 200 on Bal

4 possible results

Az wins by more than 10. You win 300
Az wins by 10. You win 520
Az wins by 8 or 9. You win 720
Az wins by 7 or less or ties or loses. You win 200.

It's still a hedge. You just get the bonus of the middle.
TomG
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October 26th, 2015 at 5:00:09 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Jack 5.5
NYJ 9.5
Atlanta -4.5
Tampa 3.5
Oakland 4.5
Dallas 3.5
Phil 3.5
Arizona -7.5



Detroit was +2.5 on the cards and closed -1 -- but I guess it's a good thing you passed

Buying off Arizona by taking Baltimore +10 -110 means giving up 2.5% of whatever you bet, based on consensus line right now.
Mooseton
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October 26th, 2015 at 8:55:44 PM permalink
Middled!!! My lucky sunglasses pulled through again!
$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
beachbumbabs
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October 26th, 2015 at 8:58:46 PM permalink
Quote: Mooseton

Middled!!! My lucky sunglasses pulled through again!



Nice, Moose!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
SOOPOO
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October 26th, 2015 at 9:18:22 PM permalink
Quote: Mooseton

Middled!!! My lucky sunglasses pulled through again!



My suggestion? Won an extra $200? Or did you do more?
Mooseton
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October 27th, 2015 at 12:50:12 AM permalink
$400 to win $363.xx. Just a good weekend. :). Went 11-5 on my picks plus picked up the hedge/middle. I know it's not totally with the tune of this thread but I included some totals where the line moved in the parlay cards. Worked this time at least. I had a really tough time getting cards in though, I wanted to bet more because I genuinely liked the line move picks but the cards kept getting denied at 3 different casinos I tried.
$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
GWAE
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October 27th, 2015 at 2:44:55 PM permalink
I have never placed a sports bet in Nevada but it seems weird to me that cards get denied. That should be illegal IMO. They offer a line and someone wants it. They shold have to accept it or pull it down altogether. If I were a black, gay, female, with 1 eye I would sue for descrimintion if they denied a ticket.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
NokTang
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October 27th, 2015 at 4:49:33 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I have never placed a sports bet in Nevada but it seems weird to me that cards get denied. That should be illegal IMO. They offer a line and someone wants it. They shold have to accept it or pull it down altogether. If I were a black, gay, female, with 1 eye I would sue for descrimintion if they denied a ticket.



Agree completely. They in fact should all be arrested for impersonating a casino. Printing errors are one thing, but being a chicken shit when you have the odds in your favor is inexcusable IMHO.
TomG
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October 27th, 2015 at 6:11:39 PM permalink
It's just like blackjack. If they didn't back anyone off, they wouldn't be able to even offer the bet. If you're willing to put miles on your car and put in the time from Friday night through Sunday morning you can get down $10,000 each week

Quote: GWAE

If I were a black, gay, female, with 1 eye I would sue for descrimintion if they denied a ticket.



You can call Gaming Commission and see how far that gets you
Pinit2winit
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October 29th, 2015 at 3:34:07 PM permalink
So my and some other guys at work are all going to make a 50 dollar 4 5 6 or 7 team parlay this week. We like kansas at +39.5 and Clemson to cover and possibly whover plays miamI after last weeks disapointment vs Clemson . Do you guys like falcons, cards, vikings, and jets? Was debating lions as well in London at +5.5. Thanks in advance. Sorry for typos or bad English on phone and quickly posting.
teddys
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October 29th, 2015 at 4:54:24 PM permalink
Quote: Pinit2winit

So my and some other guys at work are all going to make a 50 dollar 4 5 6 or 7 team parlay this week. We like kansas at +39.5 and Clemson to cover and possibly whover plays miamI after last weeks disapointment vs Clemson . Do you guys like falcons, cards, vikings, and jets? Was debating lions as well in London at +5.5. Thanks in advance. Sorry for typos or bad English on phone and quickly posting.

You should only bet NFL sides and only on the William Hill cards. Why make anything less than the best bet?

Somebody should post this weeks William Hill parlay card soon. There should be at least four plays on there for you.

Edit: I think you mentioned you live near Aliante. They are one of the few casinos with really good parlay card odds. So you could bet with them instead of WH if you wanted.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Pinit2winit
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October 29th, 2015 at 5:01:11 PM permalink
Yeah it is just easier. There is a sierra gold with a mobile kiosk for William Hill too nearby. I just figured aliante since our college games are pretty good this week.... so we think. I can hold off though to see spread on william hill.
z2newton
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October 30th, 2015 at 1:52:00 PM permalink
I hope someone post the WH card as well. I called the casino to see they'd give the lines off the card and they said no. Im like "why they're free to pick up." I suspect that it's not that they can't give it over the phone and more they don't want to deal with it.
DRich
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October 30th, 2015 at 1:57:58 PM permalink
Quote: z2newton

I hope someone post the WH card as well. I called the casino to see they'd give the lines off the card and they said no. Im like "why they're free to pick up." I suspect that it's not that they can't give it over the phone and more they don't want to deal with it.



It could be because they don't know where you are calling from. If you are calling from outside of Nevada they could get in trouble for interstate transmission of gambling lines.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Wizard
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October 30th, 2015 at 2:04:00 PM permalink
Here is the week 8 William Hill card. Please note the "market" prices are as of 2:00 PM PST on Friday.

William Hill Market
Lions +4.5 3.5
Bears +0.5 1
TB +7.5 +7 -120
NYG +3.5 +3.5 -120
49ers +8.5 8.5
Browns +5.5 5.5
Steelers +1.5 PK
SD +3.5 3.5
Ten +3.5 4.5
Oak +2.5 +3 -120
Dal +6.5 5.5
Denver +2.5 +2.5 EV
Indy +6.5 6.5


Not a very strong card this week. As of this writing the strongest plays are:

Lions +4.5
TB +7.5
NYG +3.5
Pit +1.5
Hou -3.5 (vs. Ten)
NYJ -2.5 (vs. Oak)
Dal +6.5
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
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