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z2newton
z2newton
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September 14th, 2015 at 11:14:34 AM permalink
Thanks Wizard for posting the card. Washout for me. As for the dallas/giants game you'd think with a four game preseason teams would be able to work those kinks out. Apparently not!
TomG
TomG
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September 14th, 2015 at 2:09:09 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Based on the numbers of 214 attempts in last 5 years or 43 per year, that is 2.5 per week, so 6 is more than double that



Teams averaged 65 attempts the past two years, so there was a definite increase in going for two even before the rule change. While it is definitely true that the 3 and 7 are worth less than before, kicking the PAT from further out is only a represents a fraction of that change (the rule changes that have helped make offenses much more efficient have had a far greater impact).
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 14th, 2015 at 2:40:34 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

While many might disagree with me, I would have at least considered trying to punch it in on fourth down even though the Cowboys were only down by three. Assuming you ran unsuccessfully on third down, the Cowboys would have just over a minute to get into field goal range, coming out of their own end zone, if the Fourth Down conversion failed. Furthermore, if you successfully score on the fourth down conversion, then you definitely win the game. Fail and hold the Cowboys to a Field Goal, and at least you're going to OT.



The commentators made that point about the clock too. I had Giants on the money line and I'm still disgusted about that ending. Normally, I think I'm pretty cool about losing a bet, but that one was hard to take. Grabbing defeat from the hands of victory.

Quote:

Six Point Plays: 6 (Two Failed Conversions, One Blocked PAT, Three Missed PAT's)

Seven-Point Plays: 64

Eight Point Plays: 4

Assuming these numbers are correct, PAT success currently sits at 94.12% while 2-PT success sits at 66.67%. The average value of a PAT is 0.9412 points while the average value of a 2-PT is 1.333 points. It's early in the season, but it will be interesting to see if 2PT Conversions yield the highest return in points at the end.



Thank you for doing that research! I owe you a beer.

According to Wikipedia, the general success rate is 40% to 55%. It is hard to draw a lot of conclusions from a sample size of six.

If anything, shouldn't the success rate be lower, because you have to declare the attempt in advance now, losing the element of surprise.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 14th, 2015 at 2:43:40 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

While it is definitely true that the 3 and 7 are worth less than before, kicking the PAT from further out is only a represents a fraction of that change (the rule changes that have helped make offenses much more efficient have had a far greater impact).



Why do those other rule changes matter in this regard? Are you suggesting that the other rule changes making scoring easier, leading to higher totals, and thus less significance to the key numbers?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
TomG
TomG
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September 14th, 2015 at 3:03:25 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Why do those other rule changes matter in this regard? Are you suggesting that the other rule changes making scoring easier, leading to higher totals, and thus less significance to the key numbers?



Exactly. Historically if you could bet -2.5 and +3.5 you would have about a 4% edge overall, right? But you would hit the middle a lot more often on games with totals in the 30s than you would on games with totals totals in the 50s.

Also why "basic strategy" teasers have become much less valuable. Damn that last Cardinals TD with 90 seconds left. . .
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 14th, 2015 at 4:20:03 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

Exactly. Historically if you could bet -2.5 and +3.5 you would have about a 4% edge overall, right? But you would hit the middle a lot more often on games with totals in the 30s than you would on games with totals totals in the 50s.



Let's look at some data, shall we. This is for every NFL game played since 1994, except the last Super Bowl.

First, here is the average points scored per game:



We can see it held close to about 42 through 2005. However, in 2006 it started going up by an average of almost half a point per year.

How does that affect the margin of victory? In particular those key 3 and 7-point margins of victory?



We can see the seven-point MOV has been holding steady at 9.1%. However, the three-point MOV has been dropping steadily by about one percentage point every four years.

Personally, I think this is still worth doing, but would agree the value is declining by the year.

Here is the data:

Year Average Points 3-pt MOV 7-pt MOV
1994 40.8 16.2% 10.2%
1995 43.4 19.9% 6.8%
1996 41.0 12.7% 9.2%
1997 41.3 17.1% 5.6%
1998 42.7 12.7% 11.6%
1999 41.7 15.8% 9.3%
2000 41.1 16.6% 8.1%
2001 40.5 17.4% 10.0%
2002 43.7 16.2% 10.9%
2003 41.8 16.9% 11.6%
2004 43.1 18.7% 9.7%
2005 41.2 14.3% 6.0%
2006 41.5 17.2% 9.4%
2007 43.4 16.1% 10.1%
2008 44.0 10.5% 9.7%
2009 43.2 15.4% 9.4%
2010 44.3 17.7% 7.9%
2011 44.5 13.9% 11.6%
2012 45.8 13.5% 9.7%
2013 46.9 14.6% 8.6%
2014 45.2 10.9% 6.0%
Average 42.9 15.4% 9.1%
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Mission146
Mission146
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September 14th, 2015 at 6:55:10 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The commentators made that point about the clock too. I had Giants on the money line and I'm still disgusted about that ending. Normally, I think I'm pretty cool about losing a bet, but that one was hard to take. Grabbing defeat from the hands of victory.



I don't blame you, that's a pretty sick loss. If it makes you feel any better, the offense never did perform like a team that should have won that game. It took plenty of miscues by the Cowboys to even put them in that position.



Quote:

Thank you for doing that research! I owe you a beer.

According to Wikipedia, the general success rate is 40% to 55%. It is hard to draw a lot of conclusions from a sample size of six.

If anything, shouldn't the success rate be lower, because you have to declare the attempt in advance now, losing the element of surprise.



I accept the beer, they might not be free anymore by the time I get out to Vegas!

I'm definitely not drawing any conclusions off of that sample size, but now that you've got me good and interested, I'll be tracking this statistic throughout the season, so I'll continue to update in this thread. No further beers required. ;)

I'm not sure how much of a true element of surprise there was given the formations. I don't recall seeing too many fake PAT's to get conversions. Besides that, as discussed before, even with the old Rules going for two was pretty situational, and thus, pretty obvious that would likely be what the other team was planning.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
Mission146
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September 14th, 2015 at 7:35:50 PM permalink
Six Point Plays: 6 (One Blocked PAT, Three PATs Missed)

Seven Point Plays: 69

Eight Point Plays: 4

PATs improve to 94.52% for an average value of 0.9452 points. 2PTs hold at 66.67% for a value of 1.333 points. One game in progress, will update tomorrow.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Lucky1
Lucky1
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September 15th, 2015 at 10:37:03 PM permalink
Was reading all the work you put in on these cards, great stuff. Forgive me if I overlooked it but when you have like 6 plays in the example above do you do a bunch of combinations of 4 and 5 teamers in addition to the 6 team?
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 16th, 2015 at 12:18:32 AM permalink
Quote: Lucky1

Was reading all the work you put in on these cards, great stuff. Forgive me if I overlooked it but when you have like 6 plays in the example above do you do a bunch of combinations of 4 and 5 teamers in addition to the 6 team?



Thank you. I'd do a 5-leg round robin and one 6-leg.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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