Wizard
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Wizard
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January 7th, 2015 at 7:24:54 AM permalink
Quote: Frogger

I don't think its a fluke. Take the safety last year...the first snap for the Broncos. That was clearly due to nerves on the center. It was due to the big game factor of the super bowl. The center wouldn't have messed up like that in any other game



I thought these guys were supposed to be professionals.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Romes
Romes
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January 7th, 2015 at 8:18:46 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I thought these guys were supposed to be professionals.


Professional big boys playing a game, to which the Superbowl is the pinnacle of their profession. Hence why most AP's even say "I still get adrenaline every time I place a max bet." It's what you play the game for, which gets your heart racing and nerves going. Happens to the best of us =).

Quote: speedycrap

Betting no OT is way better than no safety.


Personally I agree with this. I'm quite surprised to see they're the same odds (give no Superbowl game has ever gone to OT).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
DRich
DRich
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January 7th, 2015 at 9:29:22 AM permalink
I think a Super Bowl is a lot more likely to go to overtime than a regular season game. I believe teams will play more conservatively towards the end of the game if they can tie up the Super Bowl. Most games in the regular season have very little at stake and won't get nearly the criticism as the Super Bowl.
Order from chaos
Romes
Romes
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January 7th, 2015 at 9:44:46 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I think a Super Bowl is a lot more likely to go to overtime than a regular season game. I believe teams will play more conservatively towards the end of the game if they can tie up the Super Bowl. Most games in the regular season have very little at stake and won't get nearly the criticism as the Super Bowl.


Yes, but only if they're even in the position to make the decision between tying and winning the game... and at that point there's still a choice (while I agree more coaches would be conservative, you never know).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 7th, 2015 at 9:46:34 AM permalink
In the 3,978 NFL game played since 2000, there have been 252 that went into overtime and 248 with a safety. Remarkable how close they are, and I'm sure explains why the lines tend to be similar.

Based on these averages, the fair line for an overtime is 1479 and for a safety is 1504.

However, the probability of overtime is highly correlated to a low spread. I bet the no overtime every year as well and there have been quite a few close calls. I recall one year where the Patriots kicked a field goal in the last seconds that would have sent the game to overtime had they missed.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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January 7th, 2015 at 9:47:27 AM permalink
I am assuming you cannot parlay "Yes safety, no OT" or "No safety, yes OT"? They seem very correlated.....
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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January 7th, 2015 at 10:23:16 AM permalink
I think there are offensive and defensive strategy differences when playing in a "one and done" vs. the regular season, that make a safety (taking one to eat clock and preserve a win, or going all out to pursue one if behind), and overtime (playing for the tie in the fourth quarter, or going for a two point conversion earlier in the game to stay within one score) more appealing choices than in the regular season.

The relatively recent change in the overtime rules to eliminate "sudden death" has changed the game though. I would think it makes it more likely to occur, since coaches are less likely to gamble in the closing seconds of regulation if they know they won't be eliminated by a coin flip and a field goal.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
sc15
sc15
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January 7th, 2015 at 10:37:45 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

That's obviously a joke, however even on a smaller scale certainly the line would change or they would reduce the limit or stop talking action altogether. Their would possibly be an investigation and the sports books wouldn't pay.



Yeah, but could you imagine how funny it would be when the QB gets snapped the ball, and just runs backwards with it to their own endzone and then spikes it like he made a touchdown?
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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January 7th, 2015 at 10:42:37 AM permalink
Quote: sc15

Yeah, but could you imagine how funny it would be when the QB gets snapped the ball, and just runs backwards with it to their own endzone and then spikes it like he made a touchdown?

I wouldn't approach the QB with this scheme. They have too much to lose. I think the center would be the weak link. One errant snap is all it takes...
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Deucekies
Deucekies
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January 7th, 2015 at 11:20:00 AM permalink
Quote: sc15

Yeah, but could you imagine how funny it would be when the QB gets snapped the ball, and just runs backwards with it to their own endzone and then spikes it like he made a touchdown?


This reminds me of the one-point safety rule in College Football. If the kicking team, for whatever reason, retreats 90 yards in the wrong direction and then downs the ball in their own end zone, it's 1 point for the defense. It's the only way a score of "1" can be achieved.

What would the line be on THAT?
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