thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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January 6th, 2015 at 7:09:42 AM permalink
No superbowl has ever gone to OT as far as I know.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
wudged
wudged
Joined: Aug 7, 2013
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January 6th, 2015 at 7:11:34 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

No superbowl has ever gone to OT as far as I know.



It's due then!
MidwestAP
MidwestAP
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January 6th, 2015 at 7:57:09 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

No superbowl has ever gone to OT as far as I know.



That's correct, it never has gone to OT.
sc15
sc15
Joined: Sep 28, 2014
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January 6th, 2015 at 11:22:23 PM permalink
If i had the bankroll I'd bet 10 billion on yes safety for +600 or whatever, and then pay 30 billion to one of the players to make the safety.

Even a millionaire player can't turn down 30 billion for that.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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January 7th, 2015 at 3:18:55 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I've been keeping track of every NFL score since the 2000 season. Here is some data on safeties, through the wild card week of this season.


I should be noted that the four Superbowl safeties since 2000 were in the 2008, 2011, 2012, and 2013 seasons. In other words, four of the last six Superbowls have had a safety. If we go by the overall average of a probability of 6.23% in all games, the probability of four or more in six games is 1 in 4,888.

The question remains, is this just a fluke, or is there something about Superbowls that are more likely to produce a safety?

Personally, I lean towards fluke and will be betting the no safety again this year to show my confidence in this opinion.



I think it is just a fluke. Safeties generally happen because of a special teams mismatch. Blocked punts give a safety. Pinning an offense deep off a good punt can result in a blocked punt, end-zone sack, or holding/intentional grounding in the end zone because of being pinned deep.

As all of these things are less likely in a good team, even when they are playing a better team, there is no reason a safety should be more likely in the Superbowl.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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January 7th, 2015 at 3:29:53 AM permalink
Quote: sc15

If i had the bankroll I'd bet 10 billion on yes safety for +600 or whatever, and then pay 30 billion to one of the players to make the safety.

Even a millionaire player can't turn down 30 billion for that.

That's obviously a joke, however even on a smaller scale certainly the line would change or they would reduce the limit or stop talking action altogether. Their would possibly be an investigation and the sports books wouldn't pay.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Frogger
Frogger
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January 7th, 2015 at 4:08:25 AM permalink
I don't think its a fluke. Take the safety last year...the first snap for the Broncos. That was clearly due to nerves on the center. It was due to the big game factor of the super bowl. The center wouldn't have messed up like that in any other game
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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January 7th, 2015 at 5:48:24 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I've been keeping track of every NFL score since the 2000 season. Here is some data on safeties, through the wild card week of this season.

Part of Season Games Games with Safety Safety Ratio
All games 3,978 248 6.23%
Regular season 3,821 232 6.07%
All postseason 157 16 10.19%
Post season except Superbowl 143 12 8.39%
Superbowl 14 4 28.57%


I should be noted that the four Superbowl safeties since 2000 were in the 2008, 2011, 2012, and 2013 seasons. In other words, four of the last six Superbowls have had a safety. If we go by the overall average of a probability of 6.23% in all games, the probability of four or more in six games is 1 in 4,888.

The question remains, is this just a fluke, or is there something about Superbowls that are more likely to produce a safety?

Personally, I lean towards fluke and will be betting the no safety again this year to show my confidence in this opinion.



How confident?
$2.4M confident? :)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
teddys
teddys
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January 7th, 2015 at 6:21:43 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I should be noted that the four Superbowl safeties since 2000 were in the 2008, 2011, 2012, and 2013 seasons. In other words, four of the last six Superbowls have had a safety.

C'mon, don't you know how to recognize a streak when you see one?

ALL IN ON THE SAFETY THIS YEAR
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
speedycrap
speedycrap
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January 7th, 2015 at 6:54:11 AM permalink
Betting no OT is way better than no safety.

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