DRich
DRich
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January 7th, 2015 at 11:30:20 AM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

This reminds me of the one-point safety rule in College Football. If the kicking team, for whatever reason, retreats 90 yards in the wrong direction and then downs the ball in their own end zone, it's 1 point for the defense. It's the only way a score of "1" can be achieved.

What would the line be on THAT?



I believe this happened last year in one of the bowl games. I had never seen it before and assumed it was going to be a 2 point safety.
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tringlomane
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January 7th, 2015 at 11:37:17 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard


However, the probability of overtime is highly correlated to a low spread. I bet the no overtime every year as well and there have been quite a few close calls. I recall one year where the Patriots kicked a field goal in the last seconds that would have sent the game to overtime had they missed.



I've been surprised ever since watching super bowls that there hasn't been an OT game. Just like lion share getting hit, it will eventually happen. But the no overtime is defonitely a good bet. In the last 45 years even the pro bowl has only went to OT twice.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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January 7th, 2015 at 11:41:39 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

In the 3,978 NFL game played since 2000, there have been 252 that went into overtime and 248 with a safety. Remarkable how close they are, and I'm sure explains why the lines tend to be similar.

Based on these averages, the fair line for an overtime is 1479 and for a safety is 1504.

However, the probability of overtime is highly correlated to a low spread. I bet the no overtime every year as well and there have been quite a few close calls. I recall one year where the Patriots kicked a field goal in the last seconds that would have sent the game to overtime had they missed.

In the games that did go into overtime is there any correlation to that and the spread? I would assume it would happen more often with equally matched teams.
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Deucekies
Deucekies
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January 7th, 2015 at 12:21:02 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I believe this happened last year in one of the bowl games. I had never seen it before and assumed it was going to be a 2 point safety.


Not quite. What happened in the Fiesta Bowl was the defense getting the ball, then downing it in the end zone. What I'm talking about is the kicking team keeping the ball and going the wrong direction to the other end zone. That's never happened, and never would happen unless someone was paid off.
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tringlomane
tringlomane
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January 7th, 2015 at 12:37:57 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

Not quite. What happened in the Fiesta Bowl was the defense getting the ball, then downing it in the end zone. What I'm talking about is the kicking team keeping the ball and going the wrong direction to the other end zone. That's never happened, and never would happen unless someone was paid off.



In theory it could happen without rigging. Say kick gets blocked and defense nearly returns it all the way for 2 points. Kicking team then strips the ball just before it goes into their own zone. They recover the fumbled ball in their own end zone and get tackled.

Will this scenario actually happen in our lives, or as long as the rule exists? Probably not. I attended Northwestern at Notre Dame this year. I was shocked that I actually saw a defensive 2 point conversion in person. That and other blunders cost Notre Dame the game in overtime.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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January 7th, 2015 at 12:42:17 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

Not quite. What happened in the Fiesta Bowl was the defense getting the ball, then downing it in the end zone. What I'm talking about is the kicking team keeping the ball and going the wrong direction to the other end zone. That's never happened, and never would happen unless someone was paid off.


There's another, more plausible way - if the defense, for example, blocks an extra point attempt and runs the ball back to the kicking team's 5-yard line, but then fumbles, a kicking team's player picks up the ball at the 1, runs back into the end zone to avoid a tackle, and gets tackled (or somebody commits, say, an illegal block) in the end zone.

(Tringlomane - if the defense fumbles the ball and it enters the end zone before the offense picks it up, and they are tackled there, it is a touchback, not a safety; this is similar to when someone intercepts a ball in his own end zone and downs it. It is only a safety if the team defending that end zone was responsible for the ball entering it.)

This used to be possible in high school as well, but since extra points cannot be returned by the defense (except in Texas and Massachusetts - long story), it would have to be an offensive player running the ball all the way back into his own end zone. However, last year, the national rules committee changed the rules so that only the team that scored the touchdown can score on an extra point (this includes a situation where a fumbled PAT somehow ends up in the kicking team's end zone and the defense falls on it).
Deucekies
Deucekies
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January 7th, 2015 at 12:50:37 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

In theory it could happen without rigging. Say kick gets blocked and defense nearly returns it all the way for 2 points. Kicking team then strips the ball just before it goes into their own zone. They recover the fumbled ball in their own end zone and get tackled.


I thought about that, but wasn't sure if the ball would still be live in that situation. That would be more likely to happen.
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tringlomane
tringlomane
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January 7th, 2015 at 12:52:53 PM permalink
College should probably ban the defensive scores like the nfl does.
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 7th, 2015 at 1:15:33 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I am assuming you cannot parlay "Yes safety, no OT" or "No safety, yes OT"? They seem very correlated.....



You strictly can't parlay props except on parlay cards.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 7th, 2015 at 1:17:07 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

In the games that did go into overtime is there any correlation to that and the spread? I would assume it would happen more often with equally matched teams.



That is absolutely the case.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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