Super Bowl 49 -- All topics except the No Safety bet.
| Part of Season | Games | Games with Safety | Safety Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 3,978 | 248 | 6.23% |
| Regular season | 3,821 | 232 | 6.07% |
| All postseason | 157 | 16 | 10.19% |
| Post season except Superbowl | 143 | 12 | 8.39% |
| Superbowl | 14 | 4 | 28.57% |
I should be noted that the four Superbowl safeties since 2000 were in the 2008, 2011, 2012, and 2013 seasons. In other words, four of the last six Superbowls have had a safety. If we go by the overall average of a probability of 6.23% in all games, the probability of four or more in six games is 1 in 4,888.
The question remains, is this just a fluke, or is there something about Superbowls that are more likely to produce a safety?
Personally, I lean towards fluke and will be betting the no safety again this year to show my confidence in this opinion.
- Safety
Yes +600
No -900 - Overtime
Yes +600
No -900 - Three-point margin of victory
Yes +350
No -500 - Two-point conversion
Yes +350
No -500 - Team to score first wins
Yes -165
No +135 - Defensive or special teams touchdown
Yes +135
No -165
"Three Point Margin of Victory" = "Exactly three points", or is it "at least three"? Interesting that is the same odds as a Two-point conversion (Does that mean "successful" or "attempted"?).Quote: WizardStation casinos already has some props on the Super Bowl, including the classic bridge jumpers. Here they are:
- Safety
Yes +600
No -900- Overtime
Yes +600
No -900- Three-point margin of victory
Yes +350
No -500- Two-point conversion
Yes +350
No -500- Team to score first wins
Yes -165
No +135- Defensive or special teams touchdown
Yes +135
No -165
Quote: Ayecarumba"Three Point Margin of Victory" = "Exactly three points", or is it "at least three"? Interesting that is the same odds as a Two-point conversion (Does that mean "successful" or "attempted"?).
It means exactly 3 points and the two point conversion has to be successful.
Thanks! I am surprised that the two events are given the same odds of occuring. I would think a 3 point margin of victory would be much rarer since it can only occur once, while there are typically multiple opportunities for a two point conversion.Quote: DRichIt means exactly 3 points and the two point conversion has to be successful.
Quote: AyecarumbaThanks! I am surprised that the two events are given the same odds of occuring. I would think a 3 point margin of victory would be much rarer since it can only occur once, while there are typically multiple opportunities for a two point conversion.
About 16% of games have a three-point margin of victory. Ultimately, the data is what it is.
Here on the early Super Bowl lines from Pinnacle:
Pat PK +104
Sea PK -115
I have never seen a zero point spread for the Super Bowl before. It may make for an exciting game but will be bad for props. Anything like team to score first/last will also be close to pick, so no advantage to be gained.
- First score TD =-172
- Last score TD =-204
- No safety = -1492
- No overtime = -1340
- No two-pt. conversion = -550
- No 3-pt. margin of victory = -520
- Scoreless quarter = +372
Regarding the three-point margin of victory, I don't put much stock in statistics like this (but you might), since 2002 the Patriots have made it to the Super Bowl five times. Of those five times, four of them had a margin of victory of 3. The fifth had a margin of 4. To be specific:
Super Bowl 36: win by 3
Super Bowl 38: win by 3
Super Bowl 39: win by 3
Super Bowl 42: loss by 3
Super Bowl 46: loss by 4
Quote: WizardStation casinos already has some props on the Super Bowl, including the classic bridge jumpers. Here they are:
- Safety
Yes +600
No -900- Overtime
Yes +600
No -900- Three-point margin of victory
Yes +350
No -500- Two-point conversion
Yes +350
No -500- Team to score first wins
Yes -165
No +135- Defensive or special teams touchdown
Yes +135
No -165
I like the score first but not winning. +135. I will bet $20 US. Any taker? Settle through paypal after the game.
I quite like PK +105 line on the Pats I've seen.. apparently some books opened with Seahawks -3 before the end of the Pats game. Given what we saw there and how Seattle's offense struggled early on, I'm surprised they are the favourites against a quite dominant New England team, that gets two weeks to prepare. If BoDog does give a similar opening Money Line on the Pats, I'll take it, as I suspect that line will move.
I will also be looking for good odds on the Safety bet, like I do every year... I don't like +600 though.
EDIT NE ML opened at +129 but moved to +100 in general.
Quote: WizardHere on the early Super Bowl lines from Pinnacle:
Pat PK +104
Sea PK -115
What do the letters 'PK' actually stand for? I know what it indicates (0 point spread), but I've never read what the letters actually mean. Pick-em?
Quote: AcesAndEightsWhat do the letters 'PK' actually stand for? I know what it indicates (0 point spread), but I've never read what the letters actually mean. Pick-em?
Pick 'em indeed!
This is because the Patriots scored 9.69 net points per game over the regular season.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks scored 8.75 net points per game over the regular season.
Take the difference and the Pats are a 0.94-point favorite.
Quote: WizardAccording to my simple handicapping formula, the Patriots should be a one-point favorite.
This is because the Patriots scored 9.69 net points per game over the regular season.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks scored 8.75 net points per game over the regular season.
Take the difference and the Pats are a 0.94-point favorite.
But wouldn't the specific defense come in to play a bit more? If the Seahawks are said to have the best defense in the league, I would narrow that by taking each of their average scoring points per game against the top 3 league defenses. That should put it in to better perspective and get rid of any outliers where they played a really poor defensive team and put up 40+ points or something.
Quote: WizardAccording to my simple handicapping formula, the Patriots should be a one-point favorite.
This is because the Patriots scored 9.69 net points per game over the regular season.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks scored 8.75 net points per game over the regular season.
Take the difference and the Pats are a 0.94-point favorite.
Simple, indeed - it doesn't take things like injuries or comparative strength of schedule into account.
Using your method, if the Patriots' first and second-string quarterbacks were to both be unable to play, they would still be a 1-point favorite.
Quote: HowManyMany of my buddies (squares) are convinced NE should be favored by 7.
I'll be on Seattle. Plus, I'll be in Vegas next week, and will likely make another bet on "NO SAFETY". And will probably cost me another $3-$4k.
My buddies think I'm an idiot. Perhaps, they're right.
My money's no the NO OT. Does anyone think the lines might get down to like -600 around game time? I think that's about my and my partners threshold for firing away =).
Quote: WizardAccording to my simple handicapping formula, the Patriots should be a one-point favorite.
This is because the Patriots scored 9.69 net points per game over the regular season.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks scored 8.75 net points per game over the regular season.
Take the difference and the Pats are a 0.94-point favorite.
I'd expect them to be 1-2 point favourites too. The early -3 line on the Seahawks was a gift to some, I am sure. I would take the Pats +3 most days, and twice on any given Sunday. I won't tell anyone at the party I am at I have the Pats Moneyline, and will be cheering for the Seahawks, but I'm not passing up the value either.
Quote: RomesBut wouldn't the specific defense come in to play a bit more? If the Seahawks are said to have the best defense in the league, I would narrow that by taking each of their average scoring points per game against the top 3 league defenses. That should put it in to better perspective and get rid of any outliers where they played a really poor defensive team and put up 40+ points or something.
The Pats stuck 40+ points on the 2nd or 3rd best defence in the league. Brady and Belichik are good at this part of the game, breaking down defences and making trouble.
The Seahawks are good at playing aggressive, smash-mouth football, and that might be a dish Brady and his WRs don't want to play.
Best Safety line I can find so far is bet365 with +700 (-1200 on the No).
Quote: RomesBut wouldn't the specific defense come in to play a bit more? If the Seahawks are said to have the best defense in the league, I would narrow that by taking each of their average scoring points per game against the top 3 league defenses. That should put it in to better perspective and get rid of any outliers where they played a really poor defensive team and put up 40+ points or something.
Quote: ThatDonGuySimple, indeed - it doesn't take things like injuries or comparative strength of schedule into account.
Using your method, if the Patriots' first and second-string quarterbacks were to both be unable to play, they would still be a 1-point favorite.
I totally admit it is extremely simple. However, it will get you to within a point or two of the actual point spread a surprisingly high percentage of the time. The times it is way off is usually due to a QB injury.
Ultimately, I think the proof of a team's strength is in the pudding -- points scored less points given up. You can talk all day about the pros and cons of a team but it show all show up on the scoreboard at the end of the day.
Quote: thecesspitBodog have opened their line at New England -1 (-120) and Seahawks at +1 (Evens). Others still have that more less reversed.
Best Safety line I can find so far is bet365 with +700 (-1200 on the No).
I need to hold up on taking action for the moment. Due to marital melding of finances, I've taken most of my gambling activity off-the-books (cash only). Tough to pay internet strangers with cash...but if I can't weasel my friends into booking some action with me, I'll give in. I'm more likely to win anyway :p.
To continue the ball rolling, I just updated my chart of the average points, touchdowns, field goals, and safeties per game by season to include 2014.
| Season | Points | FG | TD | Safety |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 41.09 | 2.92 | 4.62 | 0.06 |
| 2001 | 40.54 | 2.97 | 4.53 | 0.04 |
| 2002 | 43.72 | 2.89 | 5.01 | 0.05 |
| 2003 | 41.79 | 2.97 | 4.69 | 0.07 |
| 2004 | 43.15 | 2.74 | 4.98 | 0.06 |
| 2005 | 41.15 | 3.03 | 4.58 | 0.04 |
| 2006 | 41.51 | 3.04 | 4.62 | 0.05 |
| 2007 | 43.39 | 3.07 | 4.87 | 0.07 |
| 2008 | 43.98 | 3.28 | 4.87 | 0.08 |
| 2009 | 43.16 | 2.92 | 4.92 | 0.05 |
| 2010 | 44.21 | 3.05 | 5.00 | 0.05 |
| 2011 | 44.49 | 3.27 | 4.94 | 0.08 |
| 2012 | 45.78 | 3.31 | 5.11 | 0.05 |
| 2013 | 46.87 | 3.38 | 5.23 | 0.08 |
| 2014 | 45.24 | 3.18 | 4.96 | 0.09 |
Note that both field goals and touchdowns are down from 2013, ending a gradually increasing trend, or is it just a fluke year?
Quote: thecesspitI can get 7-1 for Seattle-NE or NE-Seattle as the halftime/fulltime lines. Works out at 7/2 if I take both. With a PK line, it seems more likely than normal there will be a swap of the lead. But I don't have any statistics to back that gut feeling up.
Does it lose on a halftime tie? Also do we have a percentage of NFL games that were tied at halftime?
Quote: thecesspitYes it does. I have to check, it may lose on a full time tie as well.
The Super Bowl can't end in a tie
Neither missed an extra point during the season. Gostkowski missed 2 field goals (95%made), Hauschka missed 6 (84% with 2 blocked). Long FG for the year:
Gostkowski = 51 yards (only one over 50 yards attempted)
Hauschka = 58 yards (2-4 over 50 yards)
Both kickers have attempted 1 field goal during the playoffs:
Stephen Gostkowski = 21 yards (11-11 extra points made)
Steven Hauschka = 37 yards (6-6 extra points made)
Quote: WizardI totally admit it is extremely simple. However, it will get you to within a point or two of the actual point spread a surprisingly high percentage of the time. The times it is way off is usually due to a QB injury.
Ultimately, I think the proof of a team's strength is in the pudding -- points scored less points given up. You can talk all day about the pros and cons of a team but it show all show up on the scoreboard at the end of the day.
Interesting handicapping technique. Next season I might have to use it.
Quote: z2newtonInteresting handicapping technique. Next season I might have to use it.
Please don't. I used in a handicapping contest before this site and did awful. If anything, use it and then bet the opposite way.
Quote: michael99000The Super Bowl can't end in a tie
I mean at the end of regulation 4 quarters, before over time.
The Half-time/Full-time includes ties at both the end of 2 and 4 quarters, and they have 9/1 on the switch (NE/Sea and vice versa) giving me 9/2 odds if I want either.
No safety scored bet, first score safety is 50/1 for either team.
Betfair: NE:-105 S:+104 At the moment (21st evening UK time) they have NE which pays 1.95 and Seattle at 2.04.
Bookies: NE 10/11 (20/21 a place) S Evens see http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-england-patriots-at-seattle-seahawks/winner .
There's various articles that Vegas will have taken more [smart] money on Patriots ( http://uk.businessinsider.com/las-vegas-super-bowl-point-spread-2015-1?r=US ) but a lot of people will still bet on the day. This can easily happen at [UK] racetracks where after an initial 5/4 the favourite goes into Evens or 10/11 with bookies hoping to get it back on the other runners. There are some races where, with careful timing, you can make money by betting everything [both sides]. I can't see why Vegas wouldn't do the same and lengthen the other odds.
Hypothetical bets. Where total bets on A become 1000 and total bets on B 1100. Either result leaves the bookie even.
==A== ==B== ====A==== ====B====
Odds Odds Bets Bets
5/4 4/6 500/400
Evens 10/11 500/550
Evens 10/11 500/550
Evens 10/11 400/400
Evens 10/11 200/200
Quote: WizardI hear the Westgate (formerly Hilton) will release the props at 7:00 PM today. Will any forum members be around? One thing I hate about how they do it is they don't print the sheets until a day or two later.
I can understand them not wanting to print the sheets until a day or two later. First, they know the lines will move on Thursday night when the bettors come in to bet $2000 per bet. If they printed on Thursday, they would have to reprint again on Friday/Saturday. Second, the later the competition can get their hands on LVH's sheets (and copy from them), the better.
If I were them, I think I'd make sure they had enough boards to put up all the props (their rotating boards suck)...and not print any sheets at all.
Quote: FroggerIf I were them, I think I'd make sure they had enough boards to put up all the props (their rotating boards suck)...and not print any sheets at all.
Nobody can fault them for having small boards but they put out hundreds of props and simply can't fit them all. I hate waiting for the ones I'm interested come up in rotation too. There are so many they can be hard to find and you have only so much time before they flip again.
I have a friend stationed there tonight and I'll do my best to report on some of the lines and my assessment of them.
Who allows 2000 on all the prop bets?Quote: FroggerI can understand them not wanting to print the sheets until a day or two later. First, they know the lines will move on Thursday night when the bettors come in to bet $2000 per bet. If they printed on Thursday, they would have to reprint again on Friday/Saturday. Second, the later the competition can get their hands on LVH's sheets (and copy from them), the better.
If I were them, I think I'd make sure they had enough boards to put up all the props (their rotating boards suck)...and not print any sheets at all.
Quote: FroggerWestgate
I can confirm that.
Nevertheless, these are the first lines I've seen for most props on Super Bowl 49. In an effort to keep everything in one place, I am documenting some common props at Super Bowl 49 — Proposition Bets. I'm sure I'll be adding to that page more in the coming days leading up to the game.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/blogs/talking-points/2015/jan/23/las-vegas-prop-bets-full-list-super-bowl-49-odds/
A consideration is that the coin is a specially minted commemorative for the event, with the logos of each team on the two sides. It may not be a fair coin.Quote: ThatDonGuyI'm a little surprised the gaming commission allows betting on the coin toss result, as opposed to "which team will win the coin toss".
Edit: I was wrong. This year,
Quote: USA Today"On the coin front, or "heads," are logos of the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks, plus the Vince Lombardi trophy.
Tails features the University of Phoenix Stadium and the date of the game.
The coin is minted in Florida. Read the full article (which really appears to be culled from promo material) here.
It still may not be a fair coin though.
Edit #2: Here is a breakdown of the coin toss winners and the scores of the last 48 Superbowls.
Quote: Ayecarumba
Edit #2: Here is a breakdown of the coin toss winners and the scores of the last 48 Superbowls.
There's a bet on Bovada that the team winning the coin toss, will win the game. If I counted correctly, that bet is 24-24 in Super Bowl history.
