Super Bowl 49 -- All topics except the No Safety bet.
January 31st, 2015 at 2:27:02 AM
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Quote: WizardHere on the early Super Bowl lines from Pinnacle:
Pat PK +104
Sea PK -115
[as at 10am Saturday] The current odds for MoneyLine
BetFair exchange : Pat +102 Sea -103.
Best UK bookies: Pat -105 (+110 in two places) Sea -109 (-105 in two places)
So it looks as if Seahawks are fair favourite -102.5. (aka 40/41)
References.
http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-england-patriots-at-seattle-seahawks/winner
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/american-football/market?id=1.117008233&exp=e
January 31st, 2015 at 5:18:59 AM
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That's funky. Nearly everywhere in Vegas its NE -115 & SEA -105.
$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
January 31st, 2015 at 6:05:48 AM
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It looks like it's now gone "Pick 'Em" at 10/11 (-109) each of two, that's the prices Ladbrokes and William Hill now have.
"oddschecker" looked like this at 2pm UK time.
"oddschecker" looked like this at 2pm UK time.
January 31st, 2015 at 8:16:35 AM
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Quote: Beardgoat
Quote: DRich
I actually want to bet on overtime but the Wizard has the fair line at -1340.
What price are you trying to get Drich?
I would take 10:1 which is +1000
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
January 31st, 2015 at 9:10:52 AM
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Wizard, I noticed that most of your fair lines were slightly different between what you read on Gambling With an Edge and your page on Wizard of Odds (which at the top of the page said last updated 1/26). Which is the most current info? And I'm curious what would have slightly changed most of your prop bet fair lines in the last several days.
January 31st, 2015 at 10:43:38 AM
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I found an interesting article on the SB online. Google "Las Vegas sports book takes seven figure wager." Someone bet a 7 figure wager in one of the MGM books on the Patriots to win at pick 'em.
There is a link in the article "seven figure wager" that goes to a different article. This article says that the most lopsided action on prop bets has been UNDER 2 Fumbles. Some of the books opened it at pick 'em and are now at -300 while some books have the Under at -175 and the over at +155. Does this look like a middle situation to any of you guys?
There is a link in the article "seven figure wager" that goes to a different article. This article says that the most lopsided action on prop bets has been UNDER 2 Fumbles. Some of the books opened it at pick 'em and are now at -300 while some books have the Under at -175 and the over at +155. Does this look like a middle situation to any of you guys?
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
January 31st, 2015 at 10:59:40 AM
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Quote: DRichI would take 10:1 which is +1000
Yeah I'm just not willing to risk $300 to win $30. Sorry.
January 31st, 2015 at 11:20:17 AM
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There is a correlation between the probability of OT and the spread on the game being a pick. I would think this would drive the yes and no lines together, and lower since it is more likely.Quote: BeardgoatYeah I'm just not willing to risk $300 to win $30. Sorry.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
January 31st, 2015 at 11:29:18 AM
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I trust in Shackleford, but it seems like most of the value I'm finding is anti-FG value. I know that on Gambling with an Edge, you talked about FG accuracy improving, and that affecting your long FG predictions, but I am curious if the FG accuracy improvements have had an effect on how you handle historical data on FG vs TD or total FG bets as far as determining a fair line.
January 31st, 2015 at 11:47:19 AM
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Bovada still has Pats -2
I've been looking around and they are the only place with Pats at -2
Everybody else PK or either team -1
I've been looking around and they are the only place with Pats at -2
Everybody else PK or either team -1
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
January 31st, 2015 at 3:53:04 PM
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So if patriots PK and Seahawks PK is fair is each side very slightly worse than normal since you can't push on a tie in the superbowl? And let's say the line was patriots -1 would Seahawks +1 be very slightly worse since you can't win on a tie in the superbowl?
January 31st, 2015 at 5:06:31 PM
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Quote: terapinedBovada still has Pats -2
I've been looking around and they are the only place with Pats at -2
Everybody else PK or either team -1
They are down to 1.5 on bodog now. I got on the Seahawks at +2 there, and was given evens, not 10/11, which made me very happy.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
January 31st, 2015 at 6:49:05 PM
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Quote: mickeycrimmThis article says that the most lopsided action on prop bets has been UNDER 2 Fumbles. Some of the books opened it at pick 'em and are now at -300 while some books have the Under at -175 and the over at +155. Does this look like a middle situation to any of you guys?
Need to define "fumble". Is it a fumble lost to the opposing team, and do muffed kick/punt receptions count as a fumble?
January 31st, 2015 at 8:51:50 PM
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Is anyone finding Seattle at +1 right now?
I asked SOMEONE to put in a bet for me on SeaCocks. When I said bet the best line, I assumed I would get +1 God dammit, instead I got at pick'em.
(don't ever trust a japanese miata driver to run without exact instructions)
It wasn't a big bet because I have enough in prop bets. I really just wanted some sweat equity so I can root with friends(not if that 1 point screws me) since most are rooting for Seattle.
Perhaps deflate-gate made me want to go with the Hawks. My favorite teams are the ones that always cover.
Anyone want some Patriots at pick'em? I know some of you don't have Access to a Sports Book.
I asked SOMEONE to put in a bet for me on SeaCocks. When I said bet the best line, I assumed I would get +1 God dammit, instead I got at pick'em.
(don't ever trust a japanese miata driver to run without exact instructions)
It wasn't a big bet because I have enough in prop bets. I really just wanted some sweat equity so I can root with friends(not if that 1 point screws me) since most are rooting for Seattle.
Perhaps deflate-gate made me want to go with the Hawks. My favorite teams are the ones that always cover.
Anyone want some Patriots at pick'em? I know some of you don't have Access to a Sports Book.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
January 31st, 2015 at 9:29:03 PM
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Quote: tooncestdcWizard, I noticed that most of your fair lines were slightly different between what you read on Gambling With an Edge and your page on Wizard of Odds (which at the top of the page said last updated 1/26). Which is the most current info? And I'm curious what would have slightly changed most of your prop bet fair lines in the last several days.
The stuff on my site I think is based on the Pats being a one-point favorite and 48 total. I later revised it, for purposes of the show, to even and 47.5. That effected all the props.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 31st, 2015 at 11:46:23 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfIs anyone finding Seattle at +1 right now?
I asked SOMEONE to put in a bet for me on SeaCocks. When I said bet the best line, I assumed I would get +1 God dammit, instead I got at pick'em.
(don't ever trust a japanese miata driver to run without exact instructions)
It wasn't a big bet because I have enough in prop bets. I really just wanted some sweat equity so I can root with friends(not if that 1 point screws me) since most are rooting for Seattle.
Perhaps deflate-gate made me want to go with the Hawks. My favorite teams are the ones that always cover.
Anyone want some Patriots at pick'em? I know some of you don't have Access to a Sports Book.
Last I checked every book was PK at -110. You're welcome by the way.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
February 1st, 2015 at 12:00:15 AM
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LIES!Quote: djatcI checked every book .
How dose it feel knowing you ruined my Superbowl eve?
Don't answer that.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
February 1st, 2015 at 12:13:53 AM
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I'm putting all my money on patriots win by exactly 1 point. It's destined to happen now.
February 1st, 2015 at 3:50:12 AM
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Quote: rudeboyoiI'm putting all my money on patriots win by exactly 1 point. It's destined to happen now.
Nope. Seahawks by 14 :+)
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
February 1st, 2015 at 4:37:58 AM
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Quote: DRichI would take 10:1 which is +1000
Books all have it around -800/+500. I'll give you +700 for up to $50.
February 1st, 2015 at 5:08:39 AM
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Update as at UK lunchtime - Seahawks remain very slight favourites.
Bookies -109 -109: The High [Main] Street shops all go 10/11 each of two, although you can get -105 and +102 online.
BetFair S:-105 Pats+104. Seahawks remain favourite having touched Evens in the morning.
Safety Y:+600 N:-800. On Safety, it seems you can get 6/1 and 1/8 (2/13 in a place).
Bookies -109 -109: The High [Main] Street shops all go 10/11 each of two, although you can get -105 and +102 online.
BetFair S:-105 Pats+104. Seahawks remain favourite having touched Evens in the morning.
Safety Y:+600 N:-800. On Safety, it seems you can get 6/1 and 1/8 (2/13 in a place).
February 1st, 2015 at 8:49:42 AM
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I was thinking about this in the shower this morning.
And, it's just a WAG.
Paco would probably be able dig up the facts.
But would these 2 teams, playing in this years Super Bowl, be the furthest possible distance apart?
I mean the most distant East Coast team versus the most distant Pacific West Coast team?
And, it's just a WAG.
Paco would probably be able dig up the facts.
But would these 2 teams, playing in this years Super Bowl, be the furthest possible distance apart?
I mean the most distant East Coast team versus the most distant Pacific West Coast team?
I don't know everything but I know a lot.
February 1st, 2015 at 8:56:30 AM
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Quote: ten2winI was thinking about this in the shower this morning.
And, it's just a WAG.
Paco would probably be able dig up the facts.
But would these 2 teams, playing in this years Super Bowl, be the furthest possible distance apart?
I mean the most distant East Coast team versus the most distant Pacific West Coast team?
Boston to Seattle: 2496
Boston to San Diego: 2588
Miami to Seattle: 2724 (think this one is the winnah)
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
February 1st, 2015 at 9:09:35 AM
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It must be that roundness of the earth thing!
I don't know everything but I know a lot.
February 1st, 2015 at 9:40:09 AM
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Quote: wudgedBooks all have it around -800/+500. I'll give you +700 for up to $50.
Thanks, not interested. Wizard has the fair line at -1340. I am looking for something closer to a fair bet.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
February 1st, 2015 at 9:42:09 AM
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Pretty sure he also said fair line is +575 for OT
Edit: wow my reading comprehension or memory is awful. He said +569 was fair price for 2 point conversion.
Edit: wow my reading comprehension or memory is awful. He said +569 was fair price for 2 point conversion.
February 1st, 2015 at 10:03:09 AM
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Just about everybody has the game at PK or Pats -1
exceptions
Golden Nugget Vegas had Seattle at -1 for 6 hours Saturday but now PK
Bovada still has Pats -1.5
Bovada was -2 Pats yesterday morning and got a bet in on Seattle +2 yesterday morning :-)
exceptions
Golden Nugget Vegas had Seattle at -1 for 6 hours Saturday but now PK
Bovada still has Pats -1.5
Bovada was -2 Pats yesterday morning and got a bet in on Seattle +2 yesterday morning :-)
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
February 1st, 2015 at 10:08:59 AM
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Late money being bet on Seahawks
Couple online sites now have Seahawks at -1
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds/pointspread;_ylt=An1A.vxbjt.IaBLYxuioD.ItWaB4
Couple online sites now have Seahawks at -1
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds/pointspread;_ylt=An1A.vxbjt.IaBLYxuioD.ItWaB4
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
February 1st, 2015 at 11:08:41 AM
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Quote: terapinedLate money being bet on Seahawks
Couple online sites now have Seahawks at -1
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds/pointspread;_ylt=An1A.vxbjt.IaBLYxuioD.ItWaB4
Like I said earlier, I am sure someone is making out the money line arbitrage. with this swinging line on both sides.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
February 1st, 2015 at 12:00:49 PM
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How about Steven Hauschka Seattle kicker over 7.5 points scored. Anyone want the under?
February 1st, 2015 at 12:35:47 PM
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Update as at UK dinnertime (i.e. 8.30.pm) 3 hours to go! Seahawks have gone favourite.
Bookies S:-115 Pats +105: Online you can find -109 and +105.
BetFair S:-106 Pats+106. Seahawks touched Evens in the morning.
Safety Y:+600 N:-800. On Safety, it seems you can get 15/2 and 2/11 in places!
http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-england-patriots-at-seattle-seahawks/will-either-team-score-a-safety
Bookies S:-115 Pats +105: Online you can find -109 and +105.
BetFair S:-106 Pats+106. Seahawks touched Evens in the morning.
Safety Y:+600 N:-800. On Safety, it seems you can get 15/2 and 2/11 in places!
http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-england-patriots-at-seattle-seahawks/will-either-team-score-a-safety
February 1st, 2015 at 1:26:52 PM
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Quote: BeardgoatHow about Steven Hauschka Seattle kicker over 7.5 points scored. Anyone want the under?
Are you giving any odds? How about $50 at +120 for the under?
February 1st, 2015 at 3:22:42 PM
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I clocked "Princess Elsa" at 2:04...lol
February 1st, 2015 at 3:34:09 PM
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I predict Seahawks 13, NE 10
February 1st, 2015 at 3:35:58 PM
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At the kickoff the odds were
Seattle 10/11 Patriots Evens
Seattle -104 Patriots +103
Seattle 10/11 Patriots Evens
Seattle -104 Patriots +103
February 1st, 2015 at 4:15:31 PM
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I just won two bets with that patriots touchdown. Patriots score first -115. 1st score is any touchdown -140.
February 1st, 2015 at 4:17:18 PM
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New England needs to pump the brakes on the first downs. Seattle offense showing up before 4 minutes left in the 4th would help.
February 1st, 2015 at 4:39:50 PM
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Beast mode
I need skittles
I need skittles
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
February 1st, 2015 at 4:41:19 PM
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Quote: mcallister3200New England needs to pump the brakes on the first downs. Seattle offense showing up before 4 minutes left in the 4th would help.
Second longest any QB has gone in the SB with no completions, he made up for it quickly, though.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
February 1st, 2015 at 4:47:49 PM
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They are fortunate they're not down 3 scores already. Seattle D is absolutely getting worked over.
February 1st, 2015 at 4:50:19 PM
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But for that one long play, Pats D (especially coverage) has looked great all game.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
February 1st, 2015 at 4:58:48 PM
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That's f***ing horrible, know exactly what's coming...
EDIT: To add context, SEA's second TD of the second quarter, two seconds left in the half after the play. Anyway, guy catches the ball in the end zone. He shouldn't have been there, you know that's where the play is going because otherwise the clock runs out and you can't kick the FG, it was either going to be an incompletion or a TD, SEA wouldn't risk any other possibility.
EDIT: To add context, SEA's second TD of the second quarter, two seconds left in the half after the play. Anyway, guy catches the ball in the end zone. He shouldn't have been there, you know that's where the play is going because otherwise the clock runs out and you can't kick the FG, it was either going to be an incompletion or a TD, SEA wouldn't risk any other possibility.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
February 1st, 2015 at 5:02:06 PM
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Quote: Mission146That's f***ing horrible, know exactly what's coming...
Katy Perry??
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
February 1st, 2015 at 5:04:02 PM
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Time to take a leak
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
February 1st, 2015 at 5:04:17 PM
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No, bad grammar, I meant the Patriots Defense should have known exactly what was coming. I knew, I even pointed to the TV and picked what receiver it would be.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
February 1st, 2015 at 5:05:03 PM
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Agree Mission- the NE corner allowed that to happen much too easily. What the hell was he thinking?
February 1st, 2015 at 5:12:13 PM
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He was thinking they'd throw deeper in the end zone, but his first priority needs to be being all over the receiver. Even if you draw a Pass Interference, SEA is still probably not going to want to risk coming away with nothing and will kick the FG.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
February 1st, 2015 at 5:23:23 PM
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Hell is that? The rainbow star from, "The More You Know?"
EDIT: Okay, so I'd say that the Halftime show was only slightly more ridiculous than I expected. On a 0-10 scale, I thought it would be about a seven and it was probably an eight. You have a bunch of animated grapefruit costumes, or something, some dancers in fifties bathing suits, Katy Perry riding around on the, "The More You Know," rainbow-star.
OTHER OBSERVATIONS:
A.) Was Katy Perry's microphone loud enough or not? I couldn't hear her well over the music, but my girlfriend said she heard her fine.
B.) Do you suspect, as I do, that Missy Elliott called Katy Perry up with, "Hey, Katy, baby, I've got five million for you if you give me a shot at being relevant again"?
EDIT: Okay, so I'd say that the Halftime show was only slightly more ridiculous than I expected. On a 0-10 scale, I thought it would be about a seven and it was probably an eight. You have a bunch of animated grapefruit costumes, or something, some dancers in fifties bathing suits, Katy Perry riding around on the, "The More You Know," rainbow-star.
OTHER OBSERVATIONS:
A.) Was Katy Perry's microphone loud enough or not? I couldn't hear her well over the music, but my girlfriend said she heard her fine.
B.) Do you suspect, as I do, that Missy Elliott called Katy Perry up with, "Hey, Katy, baby, I've got five million for you if you give me a shot at being relevant again"?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
February 1st, 2015 at 5:28:27 PM
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Quote: Mission146Hell is that? The rainbow star from, "The More You Know?"
+10000000
February 1st, 2015 at 5:29:01 PM
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Do my laundry #likeagirl
Make my dinner #likeagirl
Vacuum the bedroom #likeagirl
Make my dinner #likeagirl
Vacuum the bedroom #likeagirl
