No Safety/No Overtime Superbowl bets out. Wizard what will you do?

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January 11th, 2015 at 1:09:18 AM permalink

Didn't Tony Romo fumble away a Victory Formation snap a few seasons ago?

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

JimRockford

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January 11th, 2015 at 8:31:36 AM permalink

Quote: Ayecarumba
Didn't Tony Romo fumble away a Victory Formation snap a few seasons ago?

No

"Truth is ever to be found in the simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things." -- Isaac Newton

ThatDonGuy

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January 11th, 2015 at 9:40:39 AM permalink

Quote: Ayecarumba
Didn't Tony Romo fumble away a Victory Formation snap a few seasons ago?

I remember the opposite - in 1978, the Giants could have gone into victory formation and won a game against the Eagles, but Giants QB Joe Pisarcik bobbled a handoff and Eagles CB Herman Edwards picked up the fumble and scored the winning TD. This is usually referred to as the "Miracle at the Meadowlands."

This is not to be confused with the "Miracle at the New Meadowlands" in 2010, although it was another Giants home game against the Eagles, which had the Giants ahead by 21 with less than 8 minutes in the game, only to lose when the Eagles returned a punt for a TD on the final play of the game.

Wizard
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January 11th, 2015 at 11:05:29 AM permalink

Quote: teddys
I am halfway considering booking your safety bet for this Super Bowl! :)

Sure! Why go to strangers. Will you offer me -600 now? I'm pretty sure I will be able to get that number or better the morning of the game.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

teddys

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January 11th, 2015 at 4:10:20 PM permalink

Quote: Wizard
Sure! Why go to strangers. Will you offer me -600 now? I'm pretty sure I will be able to get that number or better the morning of the game.

Hmmm...maybe. I'm reluctant to because I think the line might not move that far by game time.

Also, sodawater, would you co-bank?

Quote: sodawater
I think there will be a safety in the Super Bowl. I can feel it!

"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4

AxelWolf

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January 11th, 2015 at 4:19:24 PM permalink

Quote: Johnzimbo
They are saving their safety for the Super Bowl ;)

lol

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

AxelWolf

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January 11th, 2015 at 4:29:23 PM permalink

Quote: teddys
Hmmm...maybe. I'm reluctant to because I think the line might not move that far by game time.

Also, sodawater, would you co-bank?

give me a valid reason why, and ill consider co-banking but I need some reasonable argument Mikes wrong and somehow the SB is different. I dislike nerves as a general argument.

perhaps a particular player or something.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

AxelWolf

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January 11th, 2015 at 4:29:32 PM permalink

Quote: teddys
Hmmm...maybe. I'm reluctant to because I think the line might not move that far by game time.

Also, sodawater, would you co-bank?

give me a valid reason why, and ill consider co-banking but I need some reasonable argument Mikes wrong and somehow the SB is different. I dislike nerves as a general argument.

perhaps a particular player or something.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

Ayecarumba

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January 11th, 2015 at 10:03:42 PM permalink

Quote: AxelWolf
give me a valid reason why, and ill consider co-banking but I need some reasonable argument Mikes wrong and somehow the SB is different. I dislike nerves as a general argument.

perhaps a particular player or something.

Seattle has a good chance of returning. Their fierce defense contributed to the safety that occurred last year.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

sabre

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January 12th, 2015 at 7:47:47 AM permalink

Quote: Ayecarumba
Their fierce defense contributed to the safety that occurred last year.

How so?

GWAE

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January 12th, 2015 at 8:01:11 AM permalink

Quote: Ayecarumba
Didn't Tony Romo fumble away a Victory Formation snap a few seasons ago?

I do remember rivers fumbling a snap where all he had to do is kneel it and kick a fg to win. Instead he dropped the ball and kc won.

Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

Ayecarumba

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January 12th, 2015 at 8:58:50 AM permalink

Quote: GWAE
I do remember rivers fumbling a snap where all he had to do is kneel it and kick a fg to win. Instead he dropped the ball and kc won.

I think you are right. However, I don't know if technically this was a, "victory formation" snafu.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

Ayecarumba

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January 12th, 2015 at 9:06:19 AM permalink

Quote: sabre
How so?

Although Denver recovered the fumbled snap, they were not able to advance the ball out of the end zone to avoid the safety.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

thecesspit

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January 12th, 2015 at 9:33:38 AM permalink

Quote: Ayecarumba
Although Denver recovered the fumbled snap, they were not able to advance the ball out of the end zone to avoid the safety.

Hmm, partly, I guess, but that bad snap was headed out of the back of the end zone and the player recovering had no other choice really than to give himself up. I would expect most defences to get the safety on that play.

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

AcesAndEights

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January 19th, 2015 at 10:09:47 AM permalink

Quote: thecesspit
I will also be looking for good odds on the Safety bet, like I do every year... I don't like +600 though.

Hello, old friend! I would probably book action on the 'no safety' side again, but for less than last year due to current life events.

My opening offer is +/-700. I'll go up to my $140 vs. your $20.

"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer

thecesspit

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January 19th, 2015 at 10:18:28 AM permalink

Quote: AcesAndEights
Hello, old friend! I would probably book action on the 'no safety' side again, but for less than last year due to current life events.

My opening offer is +/-700. I'll go up to my $140 vs. your $20.

Hello again!

Let me see opening lines on the YES by end of the today before I commit. In theory I like it, but have to complete my research first.

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

AcesAndEights

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January 19th, 2015 at 12:38:59 PM permalink

Quote: thecesspit
Hello again!

Let me see opening lines on the YES by end of the today before I commit. In theory I like it, but have to complete my research first.

Understood.

"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer

HowMany

HowMany

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January 19th, 2015 at 1:42:18 PM permalink

Many of my buddies (squares) are convinced NE should be favored by 7.

I'll be on Seattle. Plus, I'll be in Vegas next week, and will likely make another bet on "NO SAFETY". And will probably cost me another $3-$4k.

My buddies think I'm an idiot. Perhaps, they're right.

Wizard
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January 20th, 2015 at 5:02:33 PM permalink

Let the record show that BBB bet $100 against me, at +700, on a safety. In other words, Barbara has the "yes" and I have the "no."

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

Wizard
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January 20th, 2015 at 5:22:59 PM permalink

Posts about the Super Bowl, other than the no safety bet, have been moved to Super Bowl 49 -- All topics except the No Safety bet.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

AcesAndEights

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January 20th, 2015 at 8:54:12 PM permalink

Does Bovada have the safety/no safety up? I can't find it.

"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer

thecesspit

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January 20th, 2015 at 9:14:19 PM permalink

Quote: AcesAndEights
Does Bovada have the safety/no safety up? I can't find it.

Nope.

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

Keeneone

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January 20th, 2015 at 11:55:55 PM permalink

Lines from Southpoint today:

Safety Yes +525 No -725
Overtime Yes +500 No -750

AxelWolf

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January 21st, 2015 at 12:30:01 AM permalink

As the gap closes with the spread with evenly match teams how does that affect the probability of an overtime?

I assume it should happen more often with evenly matched teams.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

AcesAndEights

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January 21st, 2015 at 10:20:51 AM permalink

Quote: thecesspit
Nope.

Bovada finally put up their line for "Will there be a safety."
Yes +550
No -900

"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer

HowMany

HowMany

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January 21st, 2015 at 10:27:12 AM permalink

Quote: AcesAndEights
Bovada finally put up their line for "Will there be a safety."
Yes +550
No -900

Shame on Bovada. The spread between yes +550 and no -900 is ridiculous.

Anyone that bets with Bovada must hate money.

thecesspit

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January 21st, 2015 at 12:56:44 PM permalink

Quote: HowMany
Shame on Bovada. The spread between yes +550 and no -900 is ridiculous.

Anyone that bets with Bovada must hate money.

I must hate money... I only bet there for convenience, and when I think I have an edge. I don't bet much there.

I will be passing on their offer to bet at +550 safety though.

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

Wizard
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January 27th, 2015 at 8:55:08 PM permalink

I just got no safety at -650 at William Hill and then -600 at Boyd/Coast.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

Ayecarumba

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January 27th, 2015 at 9:52:07 PM permalink

Quote: Wizard
I just got no safety at -650 at William Hill and then -600 at Boyd/Coast.

Good luck Wizard! I'm rooting for you!

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

Wizard
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January 27th, 2015 at 10:35:58 PM permalink

Quote: Ayecarumba
Good luck Wizard! I'm rooting for you!

Thanks! It wouldn't surprise me to see -500 by Sunday morning, but I prefer a bird in hand to two in the bush.

BTW, there was a digital billboard along the 95 by downtown advertising the -650 price at William Hill. Seems I'm not the only one hyping this bet.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

Ayecarumba

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January 28th, 2015 at 9:23:51 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard
...there was a digital billboard along the 95 by downtown advertising the -650 price at William Hill. Seems I'm not the only one hyping this bet.

I saw that, and was a little surprised that they would think Joe Public would understand, much less seek them out, just for that exotic bet.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

AcesAndEights

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January 28th, 2015 at 10:15:55 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard
I just got no safety at -650 at William Hill and then -600 at Boyd/Coast.

Nice! I have a buddy in town for the big game, and he's going to get some money down for me if he can find -600 or better. Based on those lines, I'm optimistic that will happen.

"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer

Romes

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January 28th, 2015 at 10:25:14 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard
I just got no safety at -650 at William Hill and then -600 at Boyd/Coast.

Nice... Are you planning on betting the No OT at all? Do you happen to know what those current lines were looking like at the books in Vegas? Online (only checked a couple places) I was still seeing -800 NO OT.

Playing it correctly means you've already won.

thecesspit

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January 28th, 2015 at 10:29:44 AM permalink

I'm very disappointed on how much the Safety lines have slipped. I got a little on at +600 just to say I had it like I do every year, but I don't like it none.

I will probably have a pinch on the Overtime as well.

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

Ayecarumba

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January 28th, 2015 at 11:01:16 AM permalink

Quote: thecesspit
I'm very disappointed on how much the Safety lines have slipped...

A safety three years running does that.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

mwalz9

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January 28th, 2015 at 11:01:54 AM permalink

I went with a parlay thru Bovada that ended up paying approx. -142

I bet $1500 to win $1056 and some change on the following:

NO SAFETY -900
NO OVERTIME -1400
NO TEAM SCORING 5 UNANSWERED POSSESSIONS -1400
SEATTLE +10.5 -400
NO SCORE 1ST 1:30 -1500

I know these aren't the best odds I could've got, but its the convenience. I bet from my work computer in West Virginia. We shall see what happens.

thecesspit

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January 28th, 2015 at 11:03:42 AM permalink

Quote: mwalz9
I went with a parlay thru Bovada that ended up paying approx. -142

I bet $1500 to win $1056 and some change on the following:

NO SAFETY -900
NO OVERTIME -1400
NO TEAM SCORING 5 UNANSWERED POSSESSIONS -1400
SEATTLE +10.5 -400
NO SCORE 1ST 1:30 -1500

I know these aren't the best odds I could've got, but its the convenience. I bet from my work computer in West Virginia. We shall see what happens.

Damn, I would have given you some action @ -750 on the Safety :)

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

thecesspit

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January 28th, 2015 at 11:03:59 AM permalink

Quote: Ayecarumba
A safety three years running does that.

Definitely. I can't win it every year...

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

Ayecarumba

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January 28th, 2015 at 11:10:38 AM permalink

Quote: mwalz9
I went with a parlay thru Bovada that ended up paying approx. -142

I bet $1500 to win $1056 and some change on the following:

NO SAFETY -900
NO OVERTIME -1400
NO TEAM SCORING 5 UNANSWERED POSSESSIONS -1400
SEATTLE +10.5 -400
NO SCORE 1ST 1:30 -1500

I know these aren't the best odds I could've got, but its the convenience. I bet from my work computer in West Virginia. We shall see what happens.

Good luck mwalz9! My gut says the weak link is the "No Score in first 90 seconds". If mistakes are made, it seems like it happens early in the first series when the adrenaline is running highest.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

mwalz9

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January 28th, 2015 at 11:10:57 AM permalink

Quote: thecesspit
Damn, I would have given you some action @ -750 on the Safety :)

If that was the only bet I was making I'd have been looking for closer to -600. In this parlay, I didn't mind the -900. Getting those 5 choices at -142 is a pretty good parlay, IMO.

thecesspit

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January 28th, 2015 at 11:25:55 AM permalink

Ah, didn't realize it was all one big parlay! Good luck!

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

Romes

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January 28th, 2015 at 11:39:09 AM permalink

Quote: mwalz9
I went with a parlay thru Bovada that ended up paying approx. -142

I bet $1500 to win $1056 and some change on the following:

NO SAFETY -900
NO OVERTIME -1400
NO TEAM SCORING 5 UNANSWERED POSSESSIONS -1400
SEATTLE +10.5 -400
NO SCORE 1ST 1:30 -1500

I know these aren't the best odds I could've got, but its the convenience. I bet from my work computer in West Virginia. We shall see what happens.

I just looked on Bovada earlier (just to check) and didn't see a NO SAFETY or NO OVERTIME bet. What section were those under? I looked in the Super Bowl props...

Playing it correctly means you've already won.

mwalz9

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January 28th, 2015 at 11:48:08 AM permalink

There is a lot of stuff there. I had to CTRL + F in my browser to find it.

Romes

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January 28th, 2015 at 11:54:39 AM permalink

Quote: mwalz9
There is a lot of stuff there. I had to CTRL + F in my browser to find it.

Tried that for both "Safety" and "Overtime"... is that the section you clicked in too?

Sports->

Featured Betting Lines
Super Bowl XLIX
Patriots vs Seahawks
Odds to win MVP
Special Props
Coin Toss Odds

I checked out special props

EDIT: It's not in there when I click "special props" but if I click Patriots vs Seahawks, then at the bottom of the 1 game line, there's "+ 2 Segments|- 214 Team Props|+ 313 Player Props"... clicking the Team Props shows it in there..

Playing it correctly means you've already won.

teddys

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January 28th, 2015 at 1:16:21 PM permalink

Quote: Wizard
I just got no safety at -650 at William Hill and then -600 at Boyd/Coast.

Nice job, Michael. Better than I could offer. I should have gotten in with you at -700 like BBB I guess.

"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4

teddys

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January 28th, 2015 at 1:18:50 PM permalink

Quote: mwalz9
I bet from my work computer in West Virginia. We shall see what happens.

Are you in Parkersburg? Not many Mountaineers on here.

"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4

Johnzimbo

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January 28th, 2015 at 3:00:40 PM permalink

I read somewhere that one book in Vegas says the Safety/No Safety prop will be their biggest handle. Crazy

HowMany

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January 28th, 2015 at 5:53:12 PM permalink

I was in a Will Hill book this afternoon (Plaza)

No safety -600.

Ayecarumba