2014 Kentucky Derby
Quote: treetopbuddyIf he finishes in the top three with a longer shot or two you might get back 3 dollars on a 2 dollar ticket. Hey, 50% return in 2 minutes.....not bad.
Lol, it'll pay more than $3 to show. Big brown paid $4.80...
Quote: speedycrapThat is exactly what I am looking for. Plus rebate on wagering online account. I think I got 3%. It is worth $200 on show CC.
Betting on the favorite to show is usually the worst bet in horse racing. There are so many more fun ways to bet $200 on Derby Day.
If he draws poorly, betting on him to show is a bad idea.
Quote: FinsRuleBetting on the favorite to show is usually the worst bet in horse racing. There are so many more fun ways to bet $200 on Derby Day.
If he draws poorly, betting on him to show is a bad idea.
You'll go broke betting favorites and trying to beat favorites
Quote: treetopbuddyYou'll go broke betting favorites and trying to beat favorites
Gotta pick your spots.
You type in his name where it says "horse name"
Then you can click on each of his races.
I tried but could not find PAST PERFORMANCE for FREE. But thanks anyway.Quote: FinsRuleIt is free.
You type in his name where it says "horse name" ks anyw
Then you can click on each of his races.
I am using my laptop. I typed in CC. Then the site shows me the stat. but I have to BUY the past performance. There is results but no PP.Quote: FinsRuleYou have to be on the full site, mobile won't work FYI
Quote: FinsRuleLol, it'll pay more than $3 to show. Big brown paid $4.80...
Your right, it will probably will pay closer to 4......I'm not a show pool bettor like you.....I never look at show pays. You the show parlay dude. Lol
Quote: treetopbuddyYour right, it will probably will pay closer to 4......I'm not a show pool bettor like you.....I never look at show pays. You the show parlay dude. Lol
Lol. Hey, you start with $5 to show and parlay it the whole day - you are in business!
Actually - I'm more of a contest player now. Unless I'm at the track. Then I'll do exactas and doubles.
Quote: ontariodealerhttp://static.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/past_performances/californiachrome5044_0.pdf
Am I reading the form right in that he has only been ebaten on the Dirt once and that was when he hoped the start and lost ground?
I'm not one for theatrics but I really cannot see this fella losing IF he travels cross country well!
Thanks.Quote: ontariodealerhttp://static.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/past_performances/californiachrome5044_0.pdf
I dont like the horse going to the front. Better off the pace a bit. If CC will be rated to be off the pace 3-4 lengths, I think it has a chance to win/show. Show is a better proposition to me.
Quote: speedycrapThanks.
I dont like the horse going to the front. Better off the pace a bit. If CC will be rated to be off the pace 3-4 lengths, I think it has a chance to win/show. Show is a better proposition to me.
He certainly doesn't HAVE to make the lead, nor has he been asked to gallop on the lead in all of his previous starts. He is a handy type though.
What I particularly like about him is he can quicken from the front. That is a quality I really admire in a thoroughbred.
What i am afraid is the Derby has a killing pace(rabbit at front) which will be good for the horse coming from behind. I wonder CC has a lot of kick in the stretch.Quote: TomspurHe certainly doesn't HAVE to make the lead, nor has he been asked to gallop on the lead in all of his previous starts. He is a handy type though.
What I particularly like about him is he can quicken from the front. That is a quality I really admire in a thoroughbred.
Quote: speedycrapWhat i am afraid is the Derby has a killing pace(rabbit at front) which will be good for the horse coming from behind. I wonder CC has a lot of kick in the stretch.
Depends on where they rate him. If he rates on or close to the pace he may struggle to maintain the gallop. If he is rated just off the pace, say 6th or 7th he should be able to kick no worries.
He is a good horse, he has had a good 2 year old base and he has destroyed the opposition the further he has traveled. Like I said, the only thing bothering me slightly is the travel from West to East coast. SOme horses like it, some don't
Quote: speedycrapSo, I have to get me $200 show money ready.
Put it on California Chrome if that's who you like.......according to show pool expert FinsRule, Chrome will pay in excess of 4 dollars on a 2 dollar bet. 100% return in 2 minutes. Wait, apparently there is no value in Chrome, so bet somebody that's 5-7 lengths slower to get your value.
If you like Chrome put your 200 on the nose. You have to wear a skirt if you make a show bet.....just kidding.....that's what I've heard:-)
we will find out in 10 days.Quote: treetopbuddyPut it on California Chrome if that's who you like.......according to show pool expert FinsRule, Chrome will pay in excess of 4 dollars on a 2 dollar bet. 100% return in 2 minutes. Wait, apparently there is no value in Chrome, so bet somebody that's 5-7 lengths slower to get your value.
If you like Chrome put your 200 on the nose. You have to wear a skirt if you make a show bet.....just kidding.....that's what I've heard:-)
For example, at Breeders' in 2010 I saw that Zenyatta's place payout was going to be about as much as her win payout. So I made a sizeable place wager on her (more than $2 TTB) and as it turned out it paid $3.60. Her win would have paid $3.80.
But my guess for CC would be right around $4 if he draws well. He is so much better than the rest that he should be able to show if he doesn't get into a lot of trouble. But horses get into trouble every year...
Quote: speedycrapwe will find out in 10 days.
Put together 50 more bucks and Steve Stevens will will make you whole
Quote: speedycrapCan anyone post the past performance lines of California Chrome please. Thanks for the help.
The PP's tell you what the horse done did not what he's going to do.....:
Quote: treetopbuddyThe PP's tell you what the horse done did not what he's going to do.....:
I'll give you a bunch of money for a "fp" - Future Performances.
I am hoping that all the hype on Cal chrome keeps up since I will probably throw it out. I viewed 3 of the stakes races he ran, and it seems the horse gets a fast start and stays a couple lengths from the leader....and then in the far turn makes a move and fries the field.
With all the publicity this horse is getting....I am thinking the jockies are well aware of the horse/jockey gameplan. And if I were them, my biggest goal after getting off to a clean start, is to prevent that gameplan from unfolding. Maybe boxing him in, maybe a little bump out of the gate.
This isnt a horse that flys to the front and just keeps going. This horse might find himself surrounded by 5-6 horses midway through the race. Something he is not used to.
In a race of 7 to 10 of the best of these horses..I think chrome wins hands down. But throw in another 10 horses, the best jockeys in ther world, the prestige of the race and the money......there will be some jockeys trying to win the race while at the same time preventing chrome from having a chance. All in a legal way.
This horse now has a target on its back. I dont think it will get a clean trip.
I havent analyzed all the horses yet....and all i need to do is pick the right 3 that comes in at least 3rd....but Wicked Strong seems like it might be of value possibly,,,hopefully at 6-1 or more. And I know gary stevens has a horse....and stevens isnt at this stage of carreer where he is semi retired and comes out to ride in a race just to come in 12th. So I have to give that horse a look.
I agree Cal Chrome is a monster. Very impressive. Post position will be interesting this wed.
Quote: LarrySI usually bet a 7 horse dollar tri box. Its only 210 and its one of the few times I go for tri's each year.
I am hoping that all the hype on Cal chrome keeps up since I will probably throw it out. I viewed 3 of the stakes races he ran, and it seems the horse gets a fast start and stays a couple lengths from the leader....and then in the far turn makes a move and fries the field.
With all the publicity this horse is getting....I am thinking the jockies are well aware of the horse/jockey gameplan. And if I were them, my biggest goal after getting off to a clean start, is to prevent that gameplan from unfolding. Maybe boxing him in, maybe a little bump out of the gate.
This isnt a horse that flys to the front and just keeps going. This horse might find himself surrounded by 5-6 horses midway through the race. Something he is not used to.
In a race of 7 to 10 of the best of these horses..I think chrome wins hands down. But throw in another 10 horses, the best jockeys in ther world, the prestige of the race and the money......there will be some jockeys trying to win the race while at the same time preventing chrome from having a chance. All in a legal way.
This horse now has a target on its back. I dont think it will get a clean trip.
I havent analyzed all the horses yet....and all i need to do is pick the right 3 that comes in at least 3rd....but Wicked Strong seems like it might be of value possibly,,,hopefully at 6-1 or more. And I know gary stevens has a horse....and stevens isnt at this stage of carreer where he is semi retired and comes out to ride in a race just to come in 12th. So I have to give that horse a look.
I agree Cal Chrome is a monster. Very impressive. Post position will be interesting this wed.
Fairly good analysis I must say, LarryS, except for your "value" take......
I'm afraid Chrome will fall victim to the "curse of the coverage".
I'll be there for Oaks and Derby.
Quote: ontariodealerthe pp's have all the clues to the puzzle. Any serious player must have them. In a race like the derby it is more of a guessing game.
The PP's create the argument. Similar to the towers in Roulette and the Bac screen
Quote: treetopbuddyFairly good analysis I must say, LarryS, except for your "value" take......
I'm afraid Chrome will fall victim to the "curse of the coverage".
I'll be there for Oaks and Derby.
I didnt place any value on chrome
Quote: LarrySI didnt place any value on chrome
there might not be any value on betting chrome, but you might as well throw him into some of your trifectas, because it's going to take an act of god to keep that horse out of the money the way he is running.
Quote: sodawaterthere might not be any value on betting chrome, but you might as well throw him into some of your trifectas, because it's going to take an act of god to keep that horse out of the money the way he is running.
really?m you say that without knowing post positions. What if he is in the 20 hole. Its conceivible that he expends alot of time and energy getting close to the rail before the first turn, or gets hung out 4 wide on the first turn...and has nothing left in the stretch.
I agree with previous poster...post positions are needed before we can make judgements
Quote: treetopbuddyThe PP's create the argument. Similar to the towers in Roulette and the Bac screen
Not sure how you can compare horseracing where there are tons of professional players to bacc and roulette but i guess if you believe that go ahead.
I've pretty much settled on my Top 4:
1) California Chrome
2) Hoppertunity
3) Wicked Strong
4) Ride on Curlin
I'm going to put those 4 in all of my multi-race and exotic bets. In the back end of my trifectas, and maybe on a doubles or Pick-3 with Untapable I will also put:
5) Wildcat Red
6) Vicar's In Trouble
7) Candy Boy
8) General A Rod
9) Dance with Fate
If one of those draw bad I guess I can include a Pletcher horse in there
10) Danza
Quote: speedycrapWhen will the posts be drawn???
In past years the wed before
usually televised.
Quote: FinsRuleI don't know why you wouldn't throw Chrome somewhere in your trifecta. You'd kick yourself big time if it goes 25-1, 25-1, Chrome, and you had the first two.
I've pretty much settled on my Top 4:
1) California Chrome
2) Hoppertunity
3) Wicked Strong
4) Ride on Curlin
I'm going to put those 4 in all of my multi-race and exotic bets. In the back end of my trifectas, and maybe on a doubles or Pick-3 with Untapable I will also put:
5) Wildcat Red
6) Vicar's In Trouble
7) Candy Boy
8) General A Rod
9) Dance with Fate
If one of those draw bad I guess I can include a Pletcher horse in there
10) Danza
If chrome is not in pp 6-14....i wont even consider.
He is not the speed of speed. He sits behind the speed. Except in a 20 horse field he will have alot of company and alot of attention from other jockeys.
Its just my opinion. I know there have been very well touted horses like smarty jones and big brown in the past that held to form. It happens that the cream rises to the top. With good pp chrome can win of course...i will see and post my trifecta fri
Quote: LarrySIf chrome is not in pp 6-14....i wont even consider.
know there have been very well touted horses like smarty jones and big brown in the past that held to form. It happens that the cream rises to the top. With good pp chrome can win of course...i will see and post my trifecta fri
I seem to recall Big Brown winning the 2008 Derby from post position #20 -- not exactly a favorable PP. And California Chrome looks better going into the race than even Big Brown did.
Quote: ontariodealerthe pp's have all the clues to the puzzle. Any serious player must have them. In a race like the derby it is more of a guessing game.
Really, PP's have all the clues. As you would say......."if you believe that go ahead."
Quote: sodawaterI seem to recall Big Brown winning the 2008 Derby from post position #20 -- not exactly a favorable PP. And California Chrome looks better going into the race than even Big Brown did.
When looking at the history of the Derby the 20 horse field is relatively new. No statistical significance can be assigned to post position. Not nearly enough data.
The horse can get a bad or good trip out of any hole.
Quote: LarrySIn past years the wed beforeQuote: speedycrapWhen will the posts be drawn???
usually televised.
Wednesday, 5-6 PM Eastern, on NBC Sports Network
Quote: treetopbuddyReally, PP's have all the clues. As you would say......."if you believe that go ahead."
hundreds of professional players believe it
Quote: ontariodealerhundreds of professional players believe it
Look, PP's are just that, past performances. Handicappers interpret the PP's differently. I'll say it again, the PP's are the basis of the argument which is horse racing. Without PP's handles would decrease dramatically. The PP's reflect what "the horse done did not what it's going to do"
Professionals rely on feel, instinct and info that most players don't have access to.....they also know how to configure their bets with large bankrolls that give them leverage.
