The never-ending horse thread
Quote: lilredroosteromg what a horse. 24 straight wins and 17 of them were group 1s.
how do you rate her historically?
she has to be one of the greatest ever although I don't know how her speed stats compare with the best boys
So tough to figure. It seems like there is a lot of disagreement to how good Australian racing is. Everyone compares her to Zenyatta. They raced on different surfaces so even though they are both by Street Cry, I don't really know how to compare.
I hope she goes to Royal Ascot. Then we will be able to judge better.
Quote: FinsRuleNice pick.
I had Synchrony in my pick 4. But I also had Arklow who finished right behind.
thanks. the public saw the race as pretty wide open. I was surprised to get a better price than I thought I would get. a 91/1 shot got 3rd. Synchrony might have gotten blocked without a great jock like Bravo. I give him credit.
MEY 1 - Godolphin Mile - 10 Secret Ambition - 20/1
MEY 2 - Arabian - 6 Al Zahir - 6/1
MEY 3 - Dubai Gold Cup - 10 Frontiersman - 10/1
MEY 4 - UAE Darby - 7 Yulong Warrior - 15/1 & $1 Exacta Box - 1, 3, 7, 9 = $12
MEY 5 - Al Quoz Sprint - 12 Music Magnate - 15/1
MEY 6 - Golden Shaheen - 9 Jordan Sport - 12/1
MEY 7 - Dubai Turf - 9 Monarchs Glen - 12/1
MEY 8 - Sheema Classic - 3 Rey De Oro - 4/1
MEY 9 - Dubai World Cup - 2 North America - 8/1
I think it would be a blast to attend the races @ Meydan. But with no wagering allowed onsite it would be strange/unique experience at a racetrack...
Quote: FinsRuleDubai World Cup Day Picks: I pick longer shots on this day, because chalk usually does not go well there: Play at your own risk:
MEY 1 - Godolphin Mile - 10 Secret Ambition - 20/1
MEY 2 - Arabian - 6 Al Zahir - 6/1
MEY 3 - Dubai Gold Cup - 10 Frontiersman - 10/1
MEY 4 - UAE Darby - 7 Yulong Warrior - 15/1 & $1 Exacta Box - 1, 3, 7, 9 = $12
MEY 5 - Al Quoz Sprint - 12 Music Magnate - 15/1
MEY 6 - Golden Shaheen - 9 Jordan Sport - 12/1
MEY 7 - Dubai Turf - 9 Monarchs Glen - 12/1
MEY 8 - Sheema Classic - 3 Rey De Oro - 4/1
MEY 9 - Dubai World Cup - 2 North America - 8/1
It looks like it was a pretty chalky kind of day in the Middle East. At least Mendolssohn won as a consolation prize.
Worst feeling at the track:..............you're down a lot with a couple races left that you want to play and you know you have to win both to have a winning day
there's not a man alive can pay the bills on four to five
a poor horse................a great jockey.........................a poor bet
Quote: lilredroosterfavorite racetrack sayings:
there's not a man alive can pay the bills on four to five
a poor horse................a great jockey.........................a poor bet
I heard this one on TVG yesterday - Better a short price than a long face.
Quote: FinsRuleI'm in a big contest today at Keeneland. Any picks on races 4-11 would be much appreciated!
I didn't cap the card.
But I noticed in the link from the local cappers (some of these types of guys are pretty good, or course not all of them are good):
Race 4: Bee Jersey, 8/5 chalk but with 9 in the field maybe not too bad, was the 1st pick of 4 out of 5 cappers and the 2nd pick with the other one
Race 6: the same as above for Just Whistle m/l 3/1
Race 8: Lady Aurelia top pick of all but a bad price probably 4/5 m/l
Race 9: My Boy Jack top pick of 4 out of 5 cappers 2nd pick of the other one 5/2 m/l
http://www.keeneland.com/consensus/consensus.php
Quote: lilredroosterI didn't cap the card.
But I noticed in the link from the local cappers (some of these types of guys are pretty good, or course not all of them are good):
Race 4: Bee Jersey, 8/5 chalk but with 9 in the field maybe not too bad, was the 1st pick of 4 out of 5 cappers and the 2nd pick with the other one
Race 6: the same as above for Just Whistle m/l 3/1
Race 8: Lady Aurelia top pick of all but a bad price probably 4/5 m/l
Race 9: My Boy Jack top pick of 4 out of 5 cappers 2nd pick of the other one 5/2 m/l
http://www.keeneland.com/consensus/consensus.php
3 out of 4 winners. all chalk but still. the other one got 2nd.
maybe better than trying to figure it out myself
the jockeys bribe each other and whip each other in the race
the jockeys ride bareback and represent various cities in Italy and it is medieval style with medieval decor
the competition is fierce and jockeys have sometimes been kidnapped before the race so they could not compete
the story is a panic:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/16/travel/siena-italy-palio-di-siena.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=photo-spot-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
when she was jumping the minimum payout was $2.20 not $2.10.
according to the story she crushed the races for many years
she was reported to have bet $250 thousand on one race alone. (this sentence is wrong. I read it wrong. it was $250 thousand in one meet not one race.) (edited here)
that equals about $3.5 million in today's dollars
RIP lady in red
http://www.drf.com/news/lady-red-story-woman-and-bridge-jumpers
Quote: lilredroosterI didn't cap the card.
But I noticed in the link from the local cappers (some of these types of guys are pretty good, or course not all of them are good):
Race 4: Bee Jersey, 8/5 chalk but with 9 in the field maybe not too bad, was the 1st pick of 4 out of 5 cappers and the 2nd pick with the other one
Race 6: the same as above for Just Whistle m/l 3/1
Race 8: Lady Aurelia top pick of all but a bad price probably 4/5 m/l
Race 9: My Boy Jack top pick of 4 out of 5 cappers 2nd pick of the other one 5/2 m/l
http://www.keeneland.com/consensus/consensus.php
I actually advanced through the weekend. I'm in the 3rd round which is on Saturday. If my picks $2 WPS in the last 8 at Keeneland, beat this other guy's picks, I win $750. So if you or anyone is capping the card, let me know if you find something good.
I'll start on it today.
Quote: lilredroosterthis is a great DRF story about a 1940s bridge jumper nicknamed the lady in red
when she was jumping the minimum payout was $2.20 not $2.10.
according to the story she crushed the races for many years
she was reported to have bet $250 thousand on one race alone.
that equals about $3.5 million in today's dollars
RIP lady in red
http://www.drf.com/news/lady-red-story-woman-and-bridge-jumpers
I read that story. Very fascinating.
Quote: lilredroosterthis is a great DRF story about a 1940s bridge jumper nicknamed the lady in red
when she was jumping the minimum payout was $2.20 not $2.10.
according to the story she crushed the races for many years
she was reported to have bet $250 thousand on one race alone.
that equals about $3.5 million in today's dollars
RIP lady in red
http://www.drf.com/news/lady-red-story-woman-and-bridge-jumpers
I do a lot of show betting but i start race 1 with a 2 or 5 dollar shiw bet and will try snd parlay it the whole card. Sometimes i will split it towards the end of the day on two horses if it progresses that far
I do it with friends when we get a group to the track. Everyone throws in 20's ($2 each a race) if it hits we parlay, loses we use another $2 of the 20. Pretty fun and we take turn making the picks.
We all bet other things on our own
Quote: lilredroosterthis is a great DRF story about a 1940s bridge jumper nicknamed the lady in red
when she was jumping the minimum payout was $2.20 not $2.10.
according to the story she crushed the races for many years
she was reported to have bet $250 thousand on one race alone.
that equals about $3.5 million in today's dollars
RIP lady in red
http://www.drf.com/news/lady-red-story-woman-and-bridge-jumpers
Whoever suggests making the minimum payout 1 cent on the dollar can go to hell. Good story.
but it's best if your horse is speed, on or close to the lead
if the rest of the field is weak it won't matter so much about more rivals
it's the closers who are more likely to get bothered a lot by a large field.
Quote: FinsRuleI actually advanced through the weekend. I'm in the 3rd round which is on Saturday. If my picks $2 WPS in the last 8 at Keeneland, beat this other guy's picks, I win $750. So if you or anyone is capping the card, let me know if you find something good.
I'll start on it today.
the link is to 5 who publicly capped Keeneland's card for Saturday
4 out 5 had Love Sick Kitten as their top choice race 6
5 out 5 had One Liner as their top pick race 8
last Saturday 3 out of 4 horses won and the other got 2nd when 4 of 5 had the same horse as their top pick. Good Luck
http://www.keeneland.com/consensus/consensus.php?race_date=04/21/2018
I'll probably stay away as I'd imagine he's become something of a local hero for our Canuck neighbors and may be overbet... and long breaks add too many questions (though his workouts are solid). It's just amazing how consistently good some of these ponies can be.
Pretty sure Diversify deserves his favorite status (8-5), will his front speed give him an advantage? My thinking is that he will get to just hug the rail the whole way and not be forced to go 2-3 wide on any turns. Small field though, so nobody should really run into crowd issues.
Traditionally, I'd give War Story a bunch of extra points for racing and winning a lesser stakes, but Diversify's works have been so good and I like to believe these trainers/jockeys will get the best out of their horses 9/10 times.
So basically, at what point would you take War Story over Diversify?
I would probably bet War Story or skip the race. He looks the classiest to me, finished a close third in this one last year, and there is no Gun Runner entered. Combine those thoughts with Diversify coming out of speed/fade last race, long layoff (148 days) since last out, another speedster (although lower class horse) to his outside, and I give the edge to War Story.Quote: ahiromuHow would you guys go about handicapping the Charles Town Classic (R11 on 4/21)? It seems particularly difficult because the small track adds an extra turn.
Pretty sure Diversify deserves his favorite status (8-5), will his front speed give him an advantage? My thinking is that he will get to just hug the rail the whole way and not be forced to go 2-3 wide on any turns. Small field though, so nobody should really run into crowd issues.
Traditionally, I'd give War Story a bunch of extra points for racing and winning a lesser stakes, but Diversify's works have been so good and I like to believe these trainers/jockeys will get the best out of their horses 9/10 times.
So basically, at what point would you take War Story over Diversify?
Click on You're To Blame's Ultimate pps:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html
Quote: KeeneoneI would probably bet War Story or skip the race. He looks the classiest to me, finished a close third in this one last year, and there is no Gun Runner entered. Combine those thoughts with Diversify coming out of speed/fade last race, long layoff (148 days) since last out, another speedster (although lower class horse) to his outside, and I give the edge to War Story.
Click on You're To Blame's Ultimate pps:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html
Betting $20 on the biggest race of the day is something I -need- to do, so I'm not skipping it :). Thanks for the insight & pp's. What initially concerned me the most was all of the races that War Story just flat out doesn't participate in (10+ lengths behind), but upon further reflection Diversify hasn't even run in races of those quality (Whitney/Woodward/Pegasus, where Gun Runner just slapped everyone else silly). That said, I tend to be a little more forgiving of one bad performance (Diversify, Clark Handicap G1) - esp since the three horses in front of him went on to perform well in their next race.
Edit: Wow, Diversify's last race was bad. He had no excuse.
I'll go with Bravo on You're to Blame (2) or JD Acosta on Discreet Lover (3) for an upset. War Story (5) has ran there before, so I'll put him in as well.
$2 Exacta Box - 2, 3, 5 = $12
Quote: ahiromuHow would you guys go about handicapping the Charles Town Classic (R11 on 4/21)?
So basically, at what point would you take War Story over Diversify?
it's not a tough call for me. Diversify has finished poorly only twice in his last 10.
War Story has finished poorly 6 times out of his last 10. A few times he finished poorly in a smallish field.
that clinches it for me. it's more important for me than the class angle.
my main concern with Diversify is the 7 horse Afleet Willy who is also speed.
It looks like he could bother him.
for that reason I would hedge on Diversify somehow for a 2nd place finish.
I wouldn't bet him ONLY to win.
I am very impressed by the fact that 2 races back in a G 1 Diversify was able to hold his speed for 1.25 miles, the classic distance, further than today's race.
I edited my post. A 2nd look found Afleet Willy not quite as scary. I would bet on Diversify hedging somehow for a possible 2nd place finish.
I'm glad you posted this. I am going to bet on this race.
Good to hear you are still in it. I was working on this card this morning. What a difficult set of full fields to navigate. Very tough races today. There was only three I was interested in betting:Quote: FinsRuleI actually advanced through the weekend. I'm in the 3rd round which is on Saturday. If my picks $2 WPS in the last 8 at Keeneland, beat this other guy's picks, I win $750. So if you or anyone is capping the card, let me know if you find something good.
I'll start on it today.
Race 7 #3 Enrage - Really like the race set up for her in this one.
Race 10 #1 Barahin and #7 Kind Of The Court - Looks like a good spot for a talented first time starter in this race.
GL
I like to take jockey movements into account when handicapping. In this case Ortiz is on Div, but Castellano gets on WS. So I would call it neutral between those two. The fact Castellano is not on Pletcher's horse (#2 You're To Blame) is a more telling move IMO.Quote: ahiromuWould you be concerned that Irad Ortiz is riding Diversify over War Story? I've heard this angle before, but I don't know how much it really matters. The logic is that I Ortiz made a conscious decision to ride Diversify over War Story. Is this how jockey designations even go? Or does it have more to do with loyalty to a barn/owner?
Quote: KeeneoneGood to hear you are still in it. I was working on this card this morning. What a difficult set of full fields to navigate. Very tough races today. There was only three I was interested in betting:
Race 7 #3 Enrage - Really like the race set up for her in this one.
Race 10 #1 Barahin and #7 Kind Of The Court - Looks like a good spot for a talented first time starter in this race.
GL
Here we are at Race 7. I'm doing above average so far. I'm struggling between the 9 and the 3 here. I'll give Enrage another look.
The #9 beat the #3 for 3rd, hopefully you stuck with her. Traffic trouble. I singled her and it killed my DD/P3/P4/P5...Quote: FinsRuleHere we are at Race 7. I'm doing above average so far. I'm struggling between the 9 and the 3 here. I'll give Enrage another look.
Well that is no good. I guess you will be picking a longshot here? Maybe the #11 if you need a bomber.Quote: FinsRuleI did, but the guy I was playing had the 25-1 shot. So that knocked me out unless I hit a bomb here. I did fine today, he just got his longshot in.
Oh well. 14 days until Derby...
Hopefully you had the #2 in the last.Quote: FinsRuleI did, but the guy I was playing had the 25-1 shot. So that knocked me out unless I hit a bomb here. I did fine today, he just got his longshot in.
----------
Charles Town Classic #11 (replays - flash):
http://www.hollywoodcasinocharlestown.com/racing/live-video-and-replays
Yep, a "riders racetrack". I did not really love the ride JC gave WS. Wish he would have let him settle after the break instead of asking him early. But JC is one of the best jockeys in the country, his (or the connections) strategy was not great in this one.Quote: FinsRuleI think the fact that it's a bullring really changes the race. I think it makes it probably more of a rider's race.
-snip
Quote:The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code
Bill Benter did the impossible: He wrote an algorithm that couldn’t lose at the track. Close to a billion dollars later, he tells his story for the first time.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code
Great story about a card counter who after getting blacklisted in Las Vegas in 1984, decided to focus on applying statistical models to horse racing.
IMHO a must-read for any AP or gambler.
98
Bet all you can afford (not really. Just bet $2)
Quote: FinsRuleMy horse is racing tomorrow at Arlington. Race 9 - #7.
Bet all you can afford (not really. Just bet $2)
I don't know what the correct thing to say is....in the theater it was "break a leg" but that would be more than wrong here...so I'll just say good luck! You must tell us how he/she does.
Quote: FinsRuleMy horse is racing tomorrow at Arlington. Race 9 - #7.
Bet all you can afford (not really. Just bet $2)
Good luck with her tomorrow. She is speedy. The cut back to 5.5 makes sense. Big field, maybe a few will scratch...
And why did you not mention her when she won at first asking @ 10/1?
;)
Quote: JohnzimboCuz he wanted to cash at 10-1 not 6-1 :)
Ha. You should have seen my face when she won. I lost my voice at the 1/4 pole, and I was just in complete shock. I bet $2 on her to win because I thought it would be a fun souvenir losing ticket.
I honestly think she is going to romp tomorrow. I'll be betting more than $2.
Quote: FinsRuleHa. You should have seen my face when she won.
I took a look at the chart for the race she won.
She finished 6 in 110.26 which, generally, is pretty damn fast especially for a first time starter.
and she did the first quarter in 21.61 which is absolutely smoking even for a Grade 1! WOW!!!
We'll see how well she came back from her injury. She's been training well, so I'm hopeful.
Quote: FinsRuleYeah, and Arlington has a poly track that is not fast. This race is 5.5 furlongs, and if she runs it at the same speed as that debut race, she should win.
We'll see how well she came back from her injury. She's been training well, so I'm hopeful.
She hit the lead with about an 1/8 of a mile to go and stopped running to finish 6th. We're not sure what happened. Just hoping that she is healthy. They said the layoff made her short, but she was only going 5.5 furlongs. I dunno....
Oscar is trying to explain horse racing bets to Felix.
at about .54 he tries to explain the show bet and Felix can't believe you get paid if your horse comes in 3rd and loses by 20 lengths. he's astounded. love it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gx1mGJPd_Hk
Quote: FinsRuleShe hit the lead with about an 1/8 of a mile to go and stopped running to finish 6th. We're not sure what happened. Just hoping that she is healthy. They said the layoff made her short, but she was only going 5.5 furlongs. I dunno....
Interfered with in her last race. It happened just after the break, so it’s a complete throw out race. She was placed 4th.
I went Atlantic City to play the ponies in Caesar's racebook.
this is a pic of me chillin' after 𝐌𝐘 𝐁𝐈𝐆 𝐖𝐈𝐍
I've got to go now I'm feeling a little bit tired.
need to refill my Viagra scrip
Going to take a nap.
Notnangel - Race 2.
Wish me luck.
