The never-ending horse thread
Quote: RSA quick google says horse needs a rider to finish. Don't see anything about it being right before the finish line nor at another horse/jockey's fault. I did run into this, which was fairly interesting to say the least. The jockey, Frank Hayes, died of a heart attack mid race, stayed on the horse, and won the race.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Hayes_(jockey)
generally unknown to those who are not racing fans is that thoroughbred jockeys are at tremendous risk and almost all of them who have had lengthy careers have suffered falls and broken bones and assorted injuries. ron turcotte the fabulous jockey of secretariat was thrown off a horse and became paralyzed and a paraplegic. the best of them are tremendous and very brave athletes who not only endure risk but sacrifice the enjoyment of food for decades. the average weight of a thoroughbred jockey is about 114 which is very, very light even for a small man. even some regular horse players wrongly believe a jockey can control a horse. no 114 lb. man can fully control a 1,000 lb. animal. they can only ask.
What does this mean when you're betting with an ADW? A win must be 300*bet and more than $600. If you bet $1 straight that pays $350 and you bet it twice, what happens?Quote: FinsRuleYou have to print two separate tickets.
Quote: FinsRuleI think they just opened it up on ADW sites in the US. I don't really bet international. Too hard! I will be watching International racing tonight as the best horse in the world (Winx) will be racing in Australia.
You're kidding right. Last month Arrogate was best in world. Let me know when Winx races outside Australia. And no more 3 horse fields, I hope.
Quote: courier-journal
1. Cloud Computing, Chad Brown, Javier Castellano, 8-1
2. Giuseppe the Great, Nick Zito, Tyler Gaffalione, 20-1
3. West Coast, Bob Baffert, Mike Smith, 4-1
4. Tapwrit, Todd Pletcher, Jose Ortiz, 7-2
5. Good Samaritan, Bill Mott, Joel Rosario, 5-1
6. Girvin, Joe Sharp, Robby Albarado, 10-1
7. Always Dreaming, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 6-1
8. Lookin At Lee, Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1
9. McCraken, Ian Wilkes, Brian Hernandez Jr., 12-1
10. Irap, Doug O’Neill, Mario Gutierrez, 8-1
11. Gunnevera, Antonio Sano, Edgard Zayas, 20-1
12. Fayeq, Kiaran McLaughlin, Luis Saez, 30-1
7. Cobra Katrina $33.80 $56.60
5. D'forrest Diva. $45.40
$2 Exacta 7/5 $521
$2 Trifecta 7/5/2 $770.00
The exactas and trifectas don't really seem like good deals with the prices on WP. Trifecta take-outs at Mountaineer are 25%, exactas 19%, $2 minimum bets, $.50 superfectas, they're doing everything they can do to destroy their own horse racing business. Trackside action is terribly low, not even a single slot machine there. There didn't seem to be excess money in the exotic pool, was actually pretty low.
Question: Is this extra $20,000 bet really one person for the most part or is it just lemming hysteria?
The wps pool was $50,000, about $20,000 more than typical. The six horse was 1/5(.30), apparently just had to quit.
Quote: onenickelmiracleRace 4 at Mountaineer had some interesting results, do they bridge jump every week there?
7. Cobra Katrina $56.60
5. D'forrest Diva. $45.40
The six horse was 1/5(.30), apparently just had to quit.
absolutely as the french would say INCROYABLE. the horse they jumped on and threw money at, starnilla, is a hapless loser whose last 4 finishes are 5,6, 3 and 5. those prices are for place. cheap ass mountaineer declared no show wagering in a 5 horse field. the jumpers just about handed people money in this one. they have strayed far, far down the road into suckerville, u.s.a. considering that by betting $2.00 on every other horse to place the maximum a player could have lost was $5.80 the roi with the place bets was 17/1.
she's been drawing millions into the show pools
it would pay boxcars if she's out of the money
the downside: songbird is arguably the greatest mare ever to step onto a racetrack
its not much fun betting against songbird
lol..............................................not really...................................................no way they would accept that bet
if gates lost a longshot in the show pool might pay $40k
That would be nice. The jockey would do a backflip off the horse and not many would care. He could just say he took Ambien.Quote: lilredroosterbill gates could put saratoga out of business on saturday. he could bet $50 billion on songbird to show. i doubt saratoga would be able to cough up the $2.5 billion profit it would owe him.
lol..............................................not really...................................................no way they would accept that bet
if gates lost a longshot in the show pool might pay $40k
Wish all the banned members that would comment in threads like these were around, even Larrys and his clilclo I miss those people, better than the crickets.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI'm not really understanding Girvin and McCracken getting all this praise for the Travers. . I sense I'm underestimating Taprit, Is he the morning line fav just because he hasn't looked terrible lately favorite,
i haven't capped the field. but with a morning line favorite being pegged that high, 7/2, that is a sure sign that the race is wide open. i would focus on live longshots. i don't really like the exotics. i haven't got the patience to wait a long time for a big win so i would probably bet on more than one to win. saratoga is nicknamed "the graveyard of favorites." i won't be betting for or against songbird but i will surely be watching. she is a joy to watch. she's won 13 out of 14; all but her maiden race were graded stakes. got nosed out only once by another great one; beholder. incroyable.
Quote: onenickelmiracleArrogate didn't win. That's sad, but not as sad as if he repeated the race before. Should have known Bob Baffert sending two horses means something. I played the pick 4, sensed something was wrong when I played 3,6,8. To me it meant the 2 would probably win, but I didn't change my bet.
I'm catching up on 5 days of posts because I was out on my eclipse trip.
I would have hit the Saratoga/Del Mar pick-4 had Arrogate won. Of course, in the hypothetical question of how would I bet the race, I said single Arrogate, or bet Collected to win. Well, I singled Arrogate and never bet Collected...
Quote: onenickelmiracleWhat does this mean when you're betting with an ADW? A win must be 300*bet and more than $600. If you bet $1 straight that pays $350 and you bet it twice, what happens?
No W-2 if you do it that way.
Quote: sixsistersYou're kidding right. Last month Arrogate was best in world. Let me know when Winx races outside Australia. And no more 3 horse fields, I hope.
Did you see the race? That was impressive. I'm sure she's ranked #1 in the world.
Quote: onenickelmiracleRace 4 at Mountaineer had some interesting results, do they bridge jump every week there?
7. Cobra Katrina $33.80 $56.60
5. D'forrest Diva. $45.40
$2 Exacta 7/5 $521
$2 Trifecta 7/5/2 $770.00
The exactas and trifectas don't really seem like good deals with the prices on WP. Trifecta take-outs at Mountaineer are 25%, exactas 19%, $2 minimum bets, $.50 superfectas, they're doing everything they can do to destroy their own horse racing business. Trackside action is terribly low, not even a single slot machine there. There didn't seem to be excess money in the exotic pool, was actually pretty low.
Question: Is this extra $20,000 bet really one person for the most part or is it just lemming hysteria?
The wps pool was $50,000, about $20,000 more than typical. The six horse was 1/5(.30), apparently just had to quit.
I bet there's a bridge jumper every week at Mountaineer. I'd say most of that 20K extra is one guy.
Quote: lilredroostersongbird is running in the personal ensign stakes saturday at saratoga in a field of 5
she's been drawing millions into the show pools
it would pay boxcars if she's out of the money
the downside: songbird is arguably the greatest mare ever to step onto a racetrack
its not much fun betting against songbird
I'll bet against her if the show money is 92% or higher. I don't want to get in a debate - I think Songbird is a great horse, but I think she is overrated.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI'm not really understanding Girvin and McCracken getting all this praise for the Travers. I almost feel obligated to bet them. I feel strongly to agree with Rich Perloff and Irap. Can just tell he feels he it's all but a technicality him having to wait to cash the check. I sense I'm underestimating Taprit, but it's not the Belmont. Is he the morning line fav just because he hasn't looked terrible lately like Always Dreaming and Cloud Computing? I'm smart enough to say vulnerable favorite, but is there a blind spot?
Wish all the banned members that would comment in threads like these were around, even Larrys and his clilclo I miss those people, better than the crickets.
The Travers is impossible this year. Last year I had 5 out of 5 in the Pick-6 going into the Travers. I singled Destin. My will pay was around 6K. He was actually looking okay until that freight train named Arrogate came around.
I think I'm going to play a small contest this year to try to win an entry to the Orleans Fall Classic.
I've liked Gunnevera all year. If he wins, I'll probably win any contest I'm in. So I might just go for him. West Coast scares me because it's Baffert bringing another one over who could be real good. You could make an argument for almost all of them.
Quote: FinsRuleI'll bet against her if the show money is 92% or higher. I don't want to get in a debate - I think Songbird is a great horse, but I think she is overrated.
i don't want to debate either but i'll just say one thing. andrew beyer ridiculed her before last years breeders cup distaff because she didn't have great figures. he said she would be out of the money; that beholder and stellar wind would crush her. of course, beholder did just barely nose her out but she crushed the rest of the field. she was the only filly out there. the rest were older.
Quote: lilredroosteri don't want to debate either but i'll just say one thing. andrew beyer ridiculed her before last years breeders cup distaff because she didn't have great figures. he said she would be out of the money; that beholder and stellar wind would crush her. of course, beholder did just barely nose her out but she crushed the rest of the field. she was the only filly out there. the rest were older.
We can agree Beyer is an idiot!
I had it Beholder then Songbird, and I was right (Barely). That may be the most thrilling horse race I've seen. I have a picture of it hanging in my house.
Quote: speedycrapPlace will do. Call bet $50,000 on songbird
Going for broke? Lol.
SAR 6 - Eskenformoney
SAR 7 - By the Moon
SAR 8 - Ann Arbor Eddie
SAR 9 - Stallwalkin Dude
SAR 10 - Bigger Picture
SAR 11 - Fayeq
SAR 12 - On Leave
Top Showvivor Pick:
6 - Songbird
7 - Carina Mia
8 - Coal Front
9 - Mind your Biscuits
10 - Money Multiplier
11 - Good Samaritan
12 - Lady Eli
Pick 4 Main Ticket: ($54)
8 - Takaful, Ann Arbor Eddie, Coal Front, American Anthem
9 - Stallwalkin Dude, Mind your Biscuits, Drefong,
10 - Bigger Picture, Money Multiplier, Idaho
11 - West Coast, Good Samaritan, Fayeq
If it goes Ann Arbor Eddie, Stallwalkin Dude, Bigger Picture, Fayeq - Drinks on me.
Good luck everyone.
I'm either going to play Ross or Divining Rod in r9, I have no effing idea why I decided to pick Ross, it's probably impulse. Cannot deny it just in case, and will bet a half bet WP on Divining Rod as insurance, going to box 2,4,6.
Talk about Fayeq. What's up and down on that horse.
Quote:=FinsRule
Top Showvivor Pick:
11 - Good Samaritan
nice pick. switched from turf to dirt and won first time on dirt in a grade 2 stakes the jim dandy. i watched the video. he made a powerful, sweeping, closing move.
12 MTP at Saratoga - 180K on Songbird in place pool out of 220K total. I bet the minimum against her in the place pool. It's not really even that great of a bet actually.
Liked Irap, friend suggested Gunnevera and I thought it was a good idea, felt more confident about Tapwrit as I woke up too. Unfortunately I gained confidence in Always Dreaming too. Had 4/7/10/11 ex box and 4/10/11 tri box. Had $50 layer out already on the Travers, didn't want to spend any more money, chickened out on a small $6 wps bet on Gunnevera. My friend did mention West Coast the other day, but I decided to just ignore it for absolutely no reason. Basically justified West Coast as hype, Baffert doesn't enter races he doesn't think he can win. Duh.
Went crazy afterward $10 w/$20 place on On Leave. Knew I was screwed when he took the lead. Then from there pissed away another $50 on races I knew nothing about. Rationalized not playing more in the Travers, then didn't care when I lost.
Bet two horses to show, the 3 in race 9 at Saratoga, and the 6 in race 6 at Delmar. Was going to go heavier on the 3, but I lost $50 in a must hit at negative expectation. For $50, only 64 points at minimum bets. I swear Ill never play a must hit close to being good, because they're not good gambling there. I'm about 95% convinced those machines at that casino self-regulate to take into context the minors and majors getting up there. This money thrown away cost me a $20 show bet on Wheatfield the 3 that paid $10, so $106. Wanted to quit the machine, but getting zilch unfortunately motivates me to keep playing. They're cruel, has to be something unique there.
drefong might be one of the greatest sprinters we've seen in quite a while. he was fairly close to the track record even while gearing down late. even though he's probably better at 6 furlongs than 7. very, very impressive. he's won every single race except his first maiden try and one where he did not finish and probably had a good excuse.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI have to admit I get confused betting digitally. I'll make audibles at betting time, not having a piece of paper makes me forget even what horses I bet sometimes.
i'm interpreting the fact that you posted this to mean that you wanted to hear some comment about it. that is why i am commenting and i hope it's not offensive to you, i don't mean it in that way. but i would suggest that you slow down a little bit. try to find a few horses that you find highly competitive and you expect to go off at decent odds. try to make a plan for the day and allow yourself only one or two bets off of that plan if you see something you like. it's very difficult if not impossible to find a great many good bets in a day at the track. i have made some bad mistakes at the track too and i have found that slowing down and reducing the number of bets i make has been very worthwhile. i hope this post was helpful. if not, i'll refrain next time. GOOD LUCK.
That's probably right, I'm playing too often and going from skilled betting into hunch betting pretty much. I like it though, entertainment and cheaper than slots in shit hole casino. I'm thinking of horses lately to show, basically looking for long shots where winning is being third. Not too many of those. If I hit one, maybe 4x-7x bet.Quote: lilredroosteri'm interpreting the fact that you posted this to mean that you wanted to hear some comment about it. that is why i am commenting and i hope it's not offensive to you, i don't mean it in that way. but i would suggest that you slow down a little bit. try to find a few horses that you find highly competitive and you expect to go off at decent odds. try to make a plan for the day and allow yourself only one or two bets off of that plan if you see something you like. it's very difficult if not impossible to find a great many good bets in a day at the track. i have made some bad mistakes at the track too and i have found that slowing down and reducing the number of bets i make has been very worthwhile. i hope this post was helpful. if not, i'll refrain next time. GOOD LUCK.
which track?Quote: onenickelmiracleSunday September 3rd, Siteenparksidelane is running in race 9. The bridge jumpers came out August 15th for this horse, but the horse was scratched before the race. Will probably return again, but this horse will be tough. If I had to guess who could beat him, Mo Satin or I'd go with a horse that hadn't raced in a few weeks. Siteen hasn't raced since July 23rd, wish I knew why he was scratched that day.
MountaineerQuote: speedycrapwhich track?
http://www1.drf.com/misc/stakes_schedule.jsp
St. Patrick's Day did well, full brother to American Pharoah.
Quote: onenickelmiracleFor the second time in a row, I find out Yoshida is Japanese for second place. I bet against Gun Runner with Neolithic. Surprised Neolithic went for the lead, Gun Runner passed him like he was standing still at the top of the stretch. So much for Gun Runner not having faced good competition, he will beat Arrogate in the Breeders' cup. It's possible he might have won the Pegasus if he was not quarantined.
St. Patrick's Day did well, full brother to American Pharoah.
I didn't see what St. Patrick's day did, what kind of race was he in? I wasn't going to bet against Gun Runner. He's probably the best horse in the country right now. I also will always have a soft spot for him because he was my single in a P4 that hit for about $5K.
Maiden special weight at Del Mar, won by 1/2 length at 4/5. I wasn't going to bet against Gun Runner, but then I did just in case. I was tempted by the premise of a battle then Neolithic sneaking in, but it didn't happen, not even close. It would have taken him breaking a leg to lose, when a horse is that much better.Quote: FinsRuleI didn't see what St. Patrick's day did, what kind of race was he in? I wasn't going to bet against Gun Runner. He's probably the best horse in the country right now. I also will always have a soft spot for him because he was my single in a P4 that hit for about $5K.
The bridge jumpers paid out well. I had forgot all about this, convinced myself he ran tomorrow. WPS pool $119,000.Quote: onenickelmiracleSunday September 3rd, Siteenparksidelane is running in race 9. The bridge jumpers came out August 15th for this horse, but the horse was scratched before the race. Will probably return again, but this horse will be tough. If I had to guess who could beat him, Mo Satin or I'd go with a horse that hadn't raced in a few weeks. Siteen hasn't raced since July 23rd, wish I knew why he was scratched that day.
