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Ace2
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 10:23:22 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: TDVegas

My argument is $100 pass line and $300 odds is expected to lose 1.41.

The only thing the odds bet does in terms of expectation is it ramps up the volatility. You can win OR lose a lot more money depending on how the dice go. It does not change the overall house edge.
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Here's your mistake.

OVER TIME and after MANY PLAYS you will lose 1.41% on your passline with odds.

But that's only with a PERFECT DISTRIBUTION of winning and losing hands.

The question becomes how many hands does it take to have a PERFECT DISTRIBUTION ?
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Regardless of how many hands it takes to reach x confidence level (a very simple calculation), what's your point?
It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 10:25:26 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas


A lot of people like the advantage on come out (8 ways to win, 4 ways to lose)…a 2 to 1 win/loss advantage and the only time a player has an edge, so they commit more on the pass line.
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What does that mean? Commit more to pass line versus what?
It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 10:29:03 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

It’s simply a game expectation. Odds if you will. No one would gamble if perfect distribution was going to happen. We would always lose 1.41 per $100.

I actually agree with you on that. Variance is what makes gambling fun
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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March 25th, 2022 at 10:32:36 PM permalink
Quote: ChallengedMilly

Watching the new 3 point Molly video on Color Ups YouTube channel and he's talking in detail about this particular strategy. What so you all think of it, especially in terms of a beginner?
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Instead of discussing the 3 point molly -- or debating it -- I'm going to tell you what I suggest to all new players just learning:

Simply make the minimum passline bet. Then cheer along with everyone else for the shooter to win.

Once you're comfortable with that single minimum bet you can add bets and there are about 100 different bets to add on a craps table.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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March 25th, 2022 at 10:37:19 PM permalink
I threw five 5's in a row on bubble craps the other night. If I was Come betting, I'd only get 2 winners out of that; as a place bettor, if I had placed it, would have been 5 winners. If I had won the Come bet and replaced it with a Place bet, I'd have 4 winners.
FYI, Buy bets on the 5, 9 pay 1.45X instead of 1.40X as a Place bet.
billryan
billryan
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March 25th, 2022 at 11:25:01 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: TDVegas

It’s simply a game expectation. Odds if you will. No one would gamble if perfect distribution was going to happen. We would always lose 1.41 per $100.

I actually agree with you on that. Variance is what makes gambling fun
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Then I think we all are in agreement. If you could get 100X odds with a $1 minimum bet, it could be fun if you were properly bankrolled.
Would $10,000 be enough to play such a game?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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March 25th, 2022 at 11:38:40 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I threw five 5's in a row on bubble craps the other night. If I was Come betting, I'd only get 2 winners out of that;
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Here's how I figure it.

If you were a come bettor on the 5 with double odds, at a $5 table, this would happen:

First time 5 is rolled your $5 come bet travels to the five. You add $10 odds. You have paid out $15.

Second roll on 5: you are paid $25 and your 5 stays with $10 odds, as the new $5 come bet replaces the come bet that was just paid.

Third roll on 5: you are paid $25 and your 5 stays with $10 odds.

Fourth roll on 5: you are paid $25 and your 5 stays with $10 odds.

Fifth roll on 5: you are paid $25 and your 5 stays with $10 odds.

Then 7 out. But your last come is paid $5.

What happened?

Your total outlay was $30 on flat bets including the last come plus one time you added $10 odds for a total of $40.

You were paid $110. Net win of $70.

Now, if you bet $15 on the place 5 and you rolled the 5 a total of 5 times, you would have been paid 5 X $21 = $105. Net win of $90.

Am I correct?
TDVegas
TDVegas
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March 25th, 2022 at 11:40:38 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I threw five 5's in a row on bubble craps the other night. If I was Come betting, I'd only get 2 winners out of that; as a place bettor, if I had placed it, would have been 5 winners. If I had won the Come bet and replaced it with a Place bet, I'd have 4 winners.
FYI, Buy bets on the 5, 9 pay 1.45X instead of 1.40X as a Place bet.
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I’ve played bubble craps for about 10 years now. Anyone can lay out a scenario they’ve “thrown” to justify strategy A (place) or strategy B (come bet)…and make an argument which was the better plan. For some reason…the argument is always after the fact.
TDVegas
TDVegas
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March 25th, 2022 at 11:44:31 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: TDVegas


A lot of people like the advantage on come out (8 ways to win, 4 ways to lose)…a 2 to 1 win/loss advantage and the only time a player has an edge, so they commit more on the pass line.
link to original post

What does that mean? Commit more to pass line versus what?
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Commit more to the pass line than the odds. If 10x odds was offered…some may choose $5 pass, $50 odds. Others may chose to put more on the come out roll hoping for 7-11 (8 ways). I don’t know….$15 pass, $40 odds. Etc.
Dieter
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Dieter
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March 26th, 2022 at 12:15:12 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

The question becomes how many hands does it take to have a PERFECT DISTRIBUTION ?
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I estimate that after around 5 million rolls, the difference between actual distribution and perfect will be less than .001%, so you'd stop noticing.

A bit over a month of Sundays playing 24x7, provided whoever is buying in doesn't take too long about it.

I'm sure someone will crunch some numbers and tell me how many zeroes to add.
May the cards fall in your favor.

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