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ChallengedMilly
ChallengedMilly
Joined: Jul 25, 2021
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March 24th, 2022 at 6:32:30 PM permalink
Watching the new 3 point Molly video on Color Ups YouTube channel and he's talking in detail about this particular strategy. What so you all think of it, especially in terms of a beginner?
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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March 24th, 2022 at 8:27:05 PM permalink
I'm working on putting $1 on the PL, $1 on odds, and $1 on a place bet 6 or 8. With a $30 buy-in, maybe I'll raise my bets to $2 odds if I get to $45.

3 point Molly can be expensive, then add odds and it gets worse.
$15 table minimum x 3 x 10 = $450 buy-in just for line bets, double that for single odds, triple that for double odds, quadruple that for triple odds.
As to how well it works? Are you ready to win to 75 bets ahead, or lose to 75 bets behind? Multiply the above sentence by 7.5X.

$450 x 7.5 = $3,375
$900 x 7.5 = $6,750
$1,350 x 7.5 = $10,125
$1,800 x 7.5 = $13,500

At a $1 table minimum, just divide by 15:
$30 x 7.5 = $225
$60 x 7.5 = $450
$90 x 7.5 = $675
$120 x 7.5 = $900
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson 
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March 24th, 2022 at 11:06:14 PM permalink
A simple way to look at Molly: you have to hit her twice to get her to pay.

To be more exact a number must be rolled twice. It's hard enough rolling a good number even once.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 25th, 2022 at 4:39:36 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

A simple way to look at Molly: you have to hit her twice to get her to pay.

To be more exact a number must be rolled twice. It's hard enough rolling a good number even once.
link to original post

this is what you hear from people who do not like this way of betting. It's valid in that, of course it's hard to win this way... but ignores that the real problem is the house edge.

What is definitely not valid is the suggestion that the criticism is mathematically or logically correct. I hear that implied a lot [I'm not saying Alan implies it here necessarily]

What is good about it is "three". 3 points max to try to get. It probably is about the most $ you can try to put into action without just exposing your bankroll too much. If you try to do more you really have a lot of risk.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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March 25th, 2022 at 5:16:26 AM permalink
I'd probably do $30 on the PL with $30 odds, then $15 on the Come twice with $45/$46 odds on each. When a Come with odds point wins, I'd take the winnings and rebet as two $30 bets on the inside numbers. When both Come bets with odds points win, I'll have four $30 place bets up, unless the PL is an inside number, then one of the place bets would be a Buy bet on the 4 or 10. So I'd have 5 numbers covered if I got that far.
A problem is the quick hands where the Come bet wins on a 7-out for the PL and I lose my odds bets, or where no points hit before a 7-out, etc. Another problem is Come bets coming down on a PL come-out winner and I have to start over establishing points and odds, and that's why I go to place bets on a win instead of making another Come bet on a win.

The Color Up guy has a habit of throwing badly on new strategies, so I don't recommend he try this one. You need "HOT SHOOTERS" for this to pay off.
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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March 25th, 2022 at 5:30:30 AM permalink
Quote: ChallengedMilly

Watching the new 3 point Molly video on Color Ups YouTube channel and he's talking in detail about this particular strategy. What so you all think of it, especially in terms of a beginner?
link to original post

For a beginning, just 1 bet: passline/max odds.

Then after a few rolls, if the point is 6 or 8, place the other for $6.
then some more rolls and you feel comfortable, place $6 on both the 6 & 8 if the point isnt 6/8.
then the next time you visit the casino, do a 3 point Molly.

Note: Bankroll should be whatever you have on the table x 10.
so $5 passline with 5x odds = $25, 2 comes bets with max odds = $50 thus bankroll = $750.
Leave when your bankroll falls below 40%. (ie: $300)
playing with scared $ isnt fun. And you play craps for fun.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson 
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March 25th, 2022 at 7:25:44 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: AlanMendelson

A simple way to look at Molly: you have to hit her twice to get her to pay.

To be more exact a number must be rolled twice. It's hard enough rolling a good number even once.
link to original post

this is what you hear from people who do not like this way of betting. It's valid in that, of course it's hard to win this way... but ignores that the real problem is the house edge.

What is definitely not valid is the suggestion that the criticism is mathematically or logically correct. I hear that implied a lot [I'm not saying Alan implies it here necessarily]

What is good about it is "three". 3 points max to try to get. It probably is about the most $ you can try to put into action without just exposing your bankroll too much. If you try to do more you really have a lot of risk.
link to original post



Mathematically the 3 point Molly betting system is the way to go. This is because there is no house edge on the odds for each of your points in play and you have the smallest of house edges on each come bet.

In fact the Dice Influencing Schools teach and favor the 3 Point Molly as it fits right in with DI and with DI you'll have an advantageous Seven to Rolls Ratio.

All the real Dice Influencers use the 3 Point Molly and since it has the lowest mathematical odds you should play this way.

It's interesting that there are so many people who embrace this betting system that's advocated in the Dice Influencing books and schools.

The "bible" of Dice Influencing books was written by the writer known as Sharpshooter and there is a very good explanation of the mathematical advantage of come betting with odds in that book.

But dont fret when a 7 is rolled and the dealer sweeps away your come bets and their odds. Just remind yourself that the odds had no house advantage and the flat bets (the basic come bet) only had a tiny 1.41% house edge. That will make you feel okay.
billryan
billryan 
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March 25th, 2022 at 7:48:06 AM permalink
If you are making bets that have a house edge, the less money you bet, the better off you will be.
As best I can tell, the three-point molly is a system of hedging your bets so your money may last longer, but you are still swimming upstream against the current.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson 
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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March 25th, 2022 at 7:57:46 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

If you are making bets that have a house edge, the less money you bet, the better off you will be.
As best I can tell, the three-point molly is a system of hedging your bets so your money may last longer, but you are still swimming upstream against the current.
link to original post



Its interesting that you say this. I play at a $15 table. I bet $78 or $81 across with single odds on the passline. My buyin is typically $400-500.

I play with a guy who buys in for $2000 and uses the 3 Point Molly with double odds.

I would say I'm at the table longer than he is about three quarters of the time. When there is a hot roll... say 28 rolls... he will make more money than I do. But there hasnt been a hot roll in about a month.

We need a hot shooter.
Ace2
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 9:20:57 AM permalink
I worked out the effect of 3-point-molly in another thread. Compared to a single PL bet, it increases your total bets made by 140% and your standard deviation by 91%. The reason it increases SD by more than a factor of (2.4)^.5 is because the 3 point molly bets are correlated
It’s all about making that GTA

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