ChallengedMilly
• Posts: 291
Joined: Jul 25, 2021
March 24th, 2022 at 6:32:30 PM permalink
Watching the new 3 point Molly video on Color Ups YouTube channel and he's talking in detail about this particular strategy. What so you all think of it, especially in terms of a beginner?
ChumpChange

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March 24th, 2022 at 8:27:05 PM permalink
I'm working on putting \$1 on the PL, \$1 on odds, and \$1 on a place bet 6 or 8. With a \$30 buy-in, maybe I'll raise my bets to \$2 odds if I get to \$45.

3 point Molly can be expensive, then add odds and it gets worse.
\$15 table minimum x 3 x 10 = \$450 buy-in just for line bets, double that for single odds, triple that for double odds, quadruple that for triple odds.
As to how well it works? Are you ready to win to 75 bets ahead, or lose to 75 bets behind? Multiply the above sentence by 7.5X.

\$450 x 7.5 = \$3,375
\$900 x 7.5 = \$6,750
\$1,350 x 7.5 = \$10,125
\$1,800 x 7.5 = \$13,500

At a \$1 table minimum, just divide by 15:
\$30 x 7.5 = \$225
\$60 x 7.5 = \$450
\$90 x 7.5 = \$675
\$120 x 7.5 = \$900
AlanMendelson
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March 24th, 2022 at 11:06:14 PM permalink
A simple way to look at Molly: you have to hit her twice to get her to pay.

To be more exact a number must be rolled twice. It's hard enough rolling a good number even once.
odiousgambit

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March 25th, 2022 at 4:39:36 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

A simple way to look at Molly: you have to hit her twice to get her to pay.

To be more exact a number must be rolled twice. It's hard enough rolling a good number even once.

this is what you hear from people who do not like this way of betting. It's valid in that, of course it's hard to win this way... but ignores that the real problem is the house edge.

What is definitely not valid is the suggestion that the criticism is mathematically or logically correct. I hear that implied a lot [I'm not saying Alan implies it here necessarily]

What is good about it is "three". 3 points max to try to get. It probably is about the most \$ you can try to put into action without just exposing your bankroll too much. If you try to do more you really have a lot of risk.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ChumpChange

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March 25th, 2022 at 5:16:26 AM permalink
I'd probably do \$30 on the PL with \$30 odds, then \$15 on the Come twice with \$45/\$46 odds on each. When a Come with odds point wins, I'd take the winnings and rebet as two \$30 bets on the inside numbers. When both Come bets with odds points win, I'll have four \$30 place bets up, unless the PL is an inside number, then one of the place bets would be a Buy bet on the 4 or 10. So I'd have 5 numbers covered if I got that far.
A problem is the quick hands where the Come bet wins on a 7-out for the PL and I lose my odds bets, or where no points hit before a 7-out, etc. Another problem is Come bets coming down on a PL come-out winner and I have to start over establishing points and odds, and that's why I go to place bets on a win instead of making another Come bet on a win.

The Color Up guy has a habit of throwing badly on new strategies, so I don't recommend he try this one. You need "HOT SHOOTERS" for this to pay off.
100xOdds
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March 25th, 2022 at 5:30:30 AM permalink
Quote: ChallengedMilly

Watching the new 3 point Molly video on Color Ups YouTube channel and he's talking in detail about this particular strategy. What so you all think of it, especially in terms of a beginner?

For a beginning, just 1 bet: passline/max odds.

Then after a few rolls, if the point is 6 or 8, place the other for \$6.
then some more rolls and you feel comfortable, place \$6 on both the 6 & 8 if the point isnt 6/8.
then the next time you visit the casino, do a 3 point Molly.

Note: Bankroll should be whatever you have on the table x 10.
so \$5 passline with 5x odds = \$25, 2 comes bets with max odds = \$50 thus bankroll = \$750.
Leave when your bankroll falls below 40%. (ie: \$300)
playing with scared \$ isnt fun. And you play craps for fun.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
AlanMendelson
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March 25th, 2022 at 7:25:44 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: AlanMendelson

A simple way to look at Molly: you have to hit her twice to get her to pay.

To be more exact a number must be rolled twice. It's hard enough rolling a good number even once.

this is what you hear from people who do not like this way of betting. It's valid in that, of course it's hard to win this way... but ignores that the real problem is the house edge.

What is definitely not valid is the suggestion that the criticism is mathematically or logically correct. I hear that implied a lot [I'm not saying Alan implies it here necessarily]

What is good about it is "three". 3 points max to try to get. It probably is about the most \$ you can try to put into action without just exposing your bankroll too much. If you try to do more you really have a lot of risk.

Mathematically the 3 point Molly betting system is the way to go. This is because there is no house edge on the odds for each of your points in play and you have the smallest of house edges on each come bet.

In fact the Dice Influencing Schools teach and favor the 3 Point Molly as it fits right in with DI and with DI you'll have an advantageous Seven to Rolls Ratio.

All the real Dice Influencers use the 3 Point Molly and since it has the lowest mathematical odds you should play this way.

It's interesting that there are so many people who embrace this betting system that's advocated in the Dice Influencing books and schools.

The "bible" of Dice Influencing books was written by the writer known as Sharpshooter and there is a very good explanation of the mathematical advantage of come betting with odds in that book.

But dont fret when a 7 is rolled and the dealer sweeps away your come bets and their odds. Just remind yourself that the odds had no house advantage and the flat bets (the basic come bet) only had a tiny 1.41% house edge. That will make you feel okay.
billryan
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March 25th, 2022 at 7:48:06 AM permalink
If you are making bets that have a house edge, the less money you bet, the better off you will be.
As best I can tell, the three-point molly is a system of hedging your bets so your money may last longer, but you are still swimming upstream against the current.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
AlanMendelson
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Joined: Oct 5, 2011
March 25th, 2022 at 7:57:46 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

If you are making bets that have a house edge, the less money you bet, the better off you will be.
As best I can tell, the three-point molly is a system of hedging your bets so your money may last longer, but you are still swimming upstream against the current.

Its interesting that you say this. I play at a \$15 table. I bet \$78 or \$81 across with single odds on the passline. My buyin is typically \$400-500.

I play with a guy who buys in for \$2000 and uses the 3 Point Molly with double odds.

I would say I'm at the table longer than he is about three quarters of the time. When there is a hot roll... say 28 rolls... he will make more money than I do. But there hasnt been a hot roll in about a month.

We need a hot shooter.
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 9:20:57 AM permalink
I worked out the effect of 3-point-molly in another thread. Compared to a single PL bet, it increases your total bets made by 140% and your standard deviation by 91%. The reason it increases SD by more than a factor of (2.4)^.5 is because the 3 point molly bets are correlated
It’s all about making that GTA
odiousgambit

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March 25th, 2022 at 9:45:48 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

If you are making bets that have a house edge, the less money you bet, the better off you will be.
As best I can tell, the three-point molly is a system of hedging your bets so your money may last longer, but you are still swimming upstream against the current.

If there is any hedging I didn't understand what 3 point molly is.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 9:50:46 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

If you are making bets that have a house edge, the less money you bet, the better off you will be.
As best I can tell, the three-point molly is a system of hedging your bets so your money may last longer, but you are still swimming upstream against the current.

It's not a system or hedging. It's just making come bets until up to three point numbers are covered
It’s all about making that GTA
billryan
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March 25th, 2022 at 9:55:49 AM permalink
I consider it hedging, but it may not be the correct gambling term. If your number is 6, and you are betting on two other numbers, I look at those as a hedge that the 6 wouldn't win. If hedging isn't correct, what would you call it?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 10:07:12 AM permalink
You can lose all three numbers so it's definitely not a hedge. A hedge would dilute the loss on the 6 if you lose it. Regardless, I abide by the "thou shalt not hedge thy bets" commandment. Variance is what makes gambling fun

3 point molly is just increasing your action by betting on one or two more numbers. Like placing one or two more numbers except that you don't get to choose which numbers and also the overall edge on come bets is MUCH lower than place bets, assuming you take the free odds
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
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March 25th, 2022 at 10:14:31 AM permalink
In a convoluted way each additional come bet becomes a hedge against a 7, because the come bet will be paid on the 7 while all the existing bets lose.

Again... it's a convoluted way to look at it.

I'll go with the majority, however. 3 point molly is only a name applied to a strategy of having three come bets with odds, and its not a hedging system.

Laying the 4 or ten while making come bets would be a hedge.
unJon
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March 25th, 2022 at 10:18:49 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

I consider it hedging, but it may not be the correct gambling term. If your number is 6, and you are betting on two other numbers, I look at those as a hedge that the 6 wouldn't win. If hedging isn't correct, what would you call it?

It’s more levering up than hedging a bet. Or it’s an “independent” but correlated bet. Hedged bets would be anti-correlated. However you want to look at it. One mifht be 6 before 7 and another 4 before 7 and the third 9 before 7.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 10:25:58 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

In a convoluted way each additional come bet becomes a hedge against a 7, because the come bet will be paid on the 7 while all the existing bets lose.

Again... it's a convoluted way to look at it.

I'll go with the majority, however. 3 point molly is only a name applied to a strategy of having three come bets with odds, and its not a hedging system.

Laying the 4 or ten while making come bets would be a hedge.

I was going to say that about the come bet, but: 1) once two come bets have travelled to their number and you have three total numbers covered, then you have no come bet. So it's only a hedge when one or two numbers are covered. 2) Even when a come bet is active, it's usually a very small amount relative to the total. For instance, let's say the point is 6, one come bet has travelled to 8 and one come bet is active (hasn't travelled). You have \$100 plus \$500 odds on both the 6 and 8 and \$100 on come, then a 7 is rolled. You lose \$1200 total on 6 and 8 and win \$100 on the come bet. That \$100 win doesn't dilute the \$1200 loss much
Last edited by: Ace2 on Mar 25, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
TDVegas
• Posts: 1186
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March 25th, 2022 at 12:02:08 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: AlanMendelson

A simple way to look at Molly: you have to hit her twice to get her to pay.

To be more exact a number must be rolled twice. It's hard enough rolling a good number even once.

this is what you hear from people who do not like this way of betting. It's valid in that, of course it's hard to win this way... but ignores that the real problem is the house edge.

What is definitely not valid is the suggestion that the criticism is mathematically or logically correct. I hear that implied a lot [I'm not saying Alan implies it here necessarily]

What is good about it is "three". 3 points max to try to get. It probably is about the most \$ you can try to put into action without just exposing your bankroll too much. If you try to do more you really have a lot of risk.

Hit the number twice. I’ve heard this argument so many times against the 3 point Molly. Number 1, it ignores the fact that the house edge is better on this play than having to “hit the number once” by making place or buy bets. Number 2…if you roll a 7 or 11 once, the pass line or come bet wins.

3 point Molly is a solid low house edge bet. That said, there is no right or wrong. Craps is recreation, bet as you like. If you like to play the game as close as possible to net even…stick to low house edge betting. If you want more volatility and “excitement”, if you will…take some chances on hard ways or other high house edge bets.
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 12:23:26 PM permalink
Correct. To win a passline bet you must "hit a number twice", excluding resolutions made during come-out. As a comparison, the vig on placing the 5 (must hit the number only once) is 4%, over ten times the vig on a passline bet with full odds. It's almost like comparing a zero-edge game to double-zero roulette. In the former, the edge is so low that you're essentially just playing against/with variance, and in the latter you're basically a guaranteed loser even in the short term
It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 12:33:50 PM permalink
Occasionally I'll do a 3-point-molly with Don't Pass / DC. You can lose for a long time if the shooter has a long roll, but the good part is that you win everything when he sevens out. Ideally, the shooter establishes all the points but wins none

I think the main benefit of the 3PM is that it speeds up the game. Betting the pass line you average 30 bets resolved per hour, which can be a bit slow. With a 3PM you average 72 bets resolved per hour

One of the great things about craps is the variety of bets and betting styles. You can tailor it to almost any speed/variance you like. When I'm not doing 3PM, I'll just do a PL/DP bet but for double the \$ amount. So less frequent resolutions but for higher amounts, about the same variance, slightly less house edge
Last edited by: Ace2 on Mar 25, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
billryan
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March 25th, 2022 at 12:39:53 PM permalink
If you are making a bet with a 1.41 house edge, that means in the long run you can expect to lose roughly \$1.40 for every hundred dollars you bet. In the short term, anything can happen but overall, the house expects to take \$1.40 out of every hundred dollars you wager.
The money you bet at free odds means there is no house edge and for every \$100 you bet, you can expect to get back \$100. You can add as many zeroes or subtract them but it is like taking money from your left pocket and putting it in your right. In the long term, of course. Short term anything can happen.
Doesn't playing the three-point molly get you to the long term faster?

Or am I off base and missing the bigger picture? I understand some people think craps is a great social game and love the instant camaraderie a hot shooter inspires but in a negative expectation game isn't the best move to bet less per roll, not more?
I do agree this isn't a hedge bet, as the term is commonly used.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 1:01:53 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

If you are making a bet with a 1.41 house edge, that means in the long run you can expect to lose roughly \$1.40 for every hundred dollars you bet. In the short term, anything can happen but overall, the house expects to take \$1.40 out of every hundred dollars you wager.
The money you bet at free odds means there is no house edge and for every \$100 you bet, you can expect to get back \$100. You can add as many zeroes or subtract them but it is like taking money from your left pocket and putting it in your right. In the long term, of course. Short term anything can happen.
Doesn't playing the three-point molly get you to the long term faster?

Or am I off base and missing the bigger picture? I understand some people think craps is a great social game and love the instant camaraderie a hot shooter inspires but in a negative expectation game isn't the best move to bet less per roll, not more?
I do agree this isn't a hedge bet, as the term is commonly used.

As previously posted, compared to a single PL bet, 3PM increases your total bets made by a factor of 2.4 and standard deviation by a factor of 1.9. So if you compare a \$100 PL bet with full odds (combined vig of 37 cents) to a 3PM with \$100, then over any time period your expected total vig in dollars will be higher by a factor of 2.4 doing 3PM. You should lower your 3PM base bet to about \$40 to get about the same total betting handle, vig and variance as the single \$100 PL bet
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
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March 25th, 2022 at 3:13:37 PM permalink
If you're using the 3PM system you NEVER want to roll a 7 because your flat bets will lose.

You better be a darn good DI if you're using Molly.
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 4:31:53 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

If you're using the 3PM system you NEVER want to roll a 7 because your flat bets will lose.

You better be a darn good DI if you're using Molly.

I suppose you're referring to the fact that a pass line bet is always working once a point has been established. A 3PM is just three passline bets on different numbers (assuming the two come bets have travelled to a number).

If you bet max odds like you always should, the flat portion of a bet is pretty small. Also, you really should keep your odds bets working at all times because it's a free bet (the only one in the casino) which you should make at every opportunity. Your total combined vig% will be lower this way.

That said, I never play 3PM when a tourist is shooting...locals only, They have much better control of the dice
Last edited by: Ace2 on Mar 25, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
Gialmere
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March 25th, 2022 at 5:56:25 PM permalink
If we're talking bona fide virgin shooter type of beginner I would recommend just playing the Pass Line with odds (not even the DP) for the first visit to the table. Just get a feel for things: the lingo, the dice, the movement of the cash and chips, the pacing of the game. Watch, learn and get comfortable. Craps is a daunting game that's difficult to understand. Don't believe me? Try explaining it all to people who have never played before. It takes longer than the sixty seconds the rules of a typical new table game simplify down to. Much longer.

I'd actually forgotten all this until a few years back when I had to teach craps to a group of young people at a party. They were eager to learn, but even the core concept of the basic street game seemed to baffle them. Then when I started adding the next layer...

"They pay 2-1, 3-2 and 6-5."
"No, no. When you do it that way they pay 9-5, 7-5 and 7-6."
"No, no. The Big 6 and 8 on the corner only pay even money."
"No, no. The Field numbers are a completely different thing."
"Huh? What do you mean it's confusing?"

And, of course, it was like teaching sex ed to Beavis and Butthead

"Uh huh huh. He said "____ Line".
"Yeah! Heh heh!
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 6:06:33 PM permalink
I've tried to explain the passline bet to every girl I've ever brought to Vegas and they never seem to get it. Essentially: once a point is established, all that matters is the point and seven.

Makes no sense because some of sharpest craps dealers I've had have been females

IMO there's no excuse to walk up to the table and start playing without knowing how your bet works. In the pre-internet age that was more understandable since you either had to buy a book, take a class or learn it "on the job"
It’s all about making that GTA
TDVegas
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March 25th, 2022 at 6:10:09 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: AlanMendelson

If you're using the 3PM system you NEVER want to roll a 7 because your flat bets will lose.

You better be a darn good DI if you're using Molly.

I suppose you're referring to the fact that a pass line bet is always working once a point has been established. A 3PM is just three passline bets on different numbers (assuming the two come bets have travelled to a number).

If you bet max odds like you always should, the flat portion of a bet is pretty small. Also, you really should keep your odds bets working at all times because it's a free bet (the only one in the casino) which you should make at every opportunity. Your total combined vig% will be lower this way.

That said, I never play 3PM when a tourist is shooting...locals only, They have much better control of the dice

I do not think the vig is combined to get you an overall lower house edge. It’s 2 separate bets. You are expected to lose \$1.41 per \$100 on pass/come bet and break even on the odds. Making an odds bet does not reduce the overall house edge. You are expected to lose the same \$1.41 whether you take the bet or not.

Taking the odds just adds to volatility. If things are going well, you will make more. If things aren’t going well, you will lose more than not taking odds.
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 6:30:59 PM permalink
Question of semantics. WizardOfOdds shows combined edge in his craps section.

The flat and odds bets aren't fully separate since you cannot make the latter without the former and because they win/lose at the same time.

However you prefer to describe it, by taking full 3/4/5 odds you are, on average, playing the 1.41% vig on 26% of your total bets made and nothing on the remaining 74%. That comes out to 0.37% vig on total bets made.

So for every 100 dollars you put on the table, the casino keeps 37 cents. That is just simple math and cannot be disputed

If you are a \$100 PL bettor with no odds and decide to start playing max odds, you don't use \$100 as you flat bet. You would put more like \$25 as your flat bet since that would give you an average total bet of around \$100 including odds. So, even though you are betting about the same amount in total, you pay nearly 3 times as much vig betting \$100 with no odds than you would betting \$25 with max odds

When I see someone playing \$100 on the line with no odds (not seen often) I think that's pretty dumb. Why expose \$100 to the 1.41% edge when you could expose only 1/4 of it by playing \$25 at max odds, with about the same level of total action? Sort of like why would you make the Big 6/8 bet when you can get the same bet at a lower edge by placing the 6 or 8. Incidentally I believe Big 6/8 has been banned in many jurisdictions since it so blatantly targets ignorant players
Last edited by: Ace2 on Mar 25, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
billryan
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March 25th, 2022 at 6:40:44 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Question of semantics. WizardOfOdds shows combined edge in his craps section.

The flat and odds bets aren't fully separate since you cannot make the latter without the former and because they win/lose at the same time.

However you prefer to describe it, by taking full 3/4/5 odds you are, on average, playing the 1.41% vig on 26% of your total bets made and nothing on the remaining 74%. That comes out to 0.37% vig on total bets made.

So for every 100 dollars you put on the table, the casino keeps 37 cents. That is just simple math and cannot be disputed

Aren't you putting up three times the money? If you bet \$100, you can expect to lose \$1.41 per. If you do it your way, you still lose the same \$1.41., only you risked \$300 to do it.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 6:44:30 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: Ace2

Question of semantics. WizardOfOdds shows combined edge in his craps section.

The flat and odds bets aren't fully separate since you cannot make the latter without the former and because they win/lose at the same time.

However you prefer to describe it, by taking full 3/4/5 odds you are, on average, playing the 1.41% vig on 26% of your total bets made and nothing on the remaining 74%. That comes out to 0.37% vig on total bets made.

So for every 100 dollars you put on the table, the casino keeps 37 cents. That is just simple math and cannot be disputed

Aren't you putting up three times the money? If you bet \$100, you can expect to lose \$1.41 per. If you do it your way, you still lose the same \$1.41., only you risked \$300 to do it.

See edited post above
It’s all about making that GTA
ChumpChange

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March 25th, 2022 at 7:15:37 PM permalink
If I was at a \$5,000 max table, I could use my previously described strategy to turn a \$50K buy-in to \$500K. This strategy allows me to squeeze around table limits by using odds. At my top betting level I'd have around \$4.8K on the PL, \$4.8K among 2 Come bets, so \$9.6K subject to the HA, and \$19.2K on odds. When I make my place bets, they'll be \$4.8K each at a higher HA, but that only kicks in after a Come Point win.
TDVegas
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March 25th, 2022 at 8:07:05 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Question of semantics. WizardOfOdds shows combined edge in his craps section.

The flat and odds bets aren't fully separate since you cannot make the latter without the former and because they win/lose at the same time.

However you prefer to describe it, by taking full 3/4/5 odds you are, on average, playing the 1.41% vig on 26% of your total bets made and nothing on the remaining 74%. That comes out to 0.37% vig on total bets made.

So for every 100 dollars you put on the table, the casino keeps 37 cents. That is just simple math and cannot be disputed

If you are a \$100 PL bettor with no odds and decide to start playing max odds, you don't use \$100 as you flat bet. You would put more like \$25 as your flat bet since that would give you an average total bet of around \$100 including odds. So, even though you are betting about the same amount in total, you pay nearly 3 times as much vig betting \$100 with no odds than you would betting \$25 with max odds.

When I see someone playing \$100 on the line with no odds (not seen often) I think that's pretty dumb. Why expose \$100 to the 1.41% edge when you could expose only 1/4 of it by playing \$25 at max odds, with about the same level of total action? Sort of like why would you make the Big 6/8 bet when you can get the same bet at a lower edge by placing the 6 or 8. Incidentally I believe Big 6/8 has been banned in many jurisdictions since it so blatantly targets ignorant players

I think the argument is a misnomer of sorts. Your pass line bet is subjected to 1.41% house edge. Your odds bet is 0%.

You are STILL expected to lose the same exact amount regardless if you take odds or not. Odds adds to the volatility. You can win more or lose more depending on how the dice go.

While there is definitely an argument that putting \$5 on pass and \$95 on odds is better than \$25 on pass and \$75 on odds….I believe the argument is flawed that you would only expect to lose .37 per \$100 wagered (\$25 pass, \$75 odds) vs. a lone \$25 pass. You will expect to lose the same exact amount…\$1.41.
ChumpChange

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March 25th, 2022 at 8:34:24 PM permalink
Why is there a house edge on the PL? Because the 12 loses instead of pushes I guess.
Deucekies
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March 25th, 2022 at 8:58:35 PM permalink
I like Two-Point Molly. Three points are hard to hit before the seven (one in six rolls).

I like Three-Point Molly if I'm on the Don't.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 25th, 2022 at 9:13:01 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

I believe the argument is flawed that you would only expect to lose .37 per \$100 wagered (\$25 pass, \$75 odds) vs. a lone \$25 pass. You will expect to lose the same exact amount…\$1.41.

It's a fact, not an argument. In the \$25/\$75 scenario, for every \$100 you put on the table, the casino holds .37 long term. Are you claiming that 0.37/25 = 0.37/100 ?

Don't compare \$25 pass with \$75 odds to a lone \$25 pass. Compare it to a lone \$100 pass. The vig is 4 times higher on the \$100 lone pass since it's being charged on the full \$100 instead of just \$25
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
March 25th, 2022 at 9:29:55 PM permalink
My comment regarding the 7 applies not only to the passline but also to each come bet you have with a 3 point molly.

In Nevada the flat bets -- including the flat bets of the come bets made using the 3 point molly -- are WORKING on every come out roll. The player can choose whether or not to have his odds working.

So you might have on a come out roll with a "winner 7" at a \$15 table with 3,4,5 odds:

New passline bet is paid +\$15
Come bets on 4, 5, 6 LOSE -\$45
Odds on 4,5,6 returned

In a WORST CASE situation when you have odds working with a "winner 7":

New passline bet is paid +\$15
Come bet on 4 with 3x odds loses -\$60
Come bet on 5 with 4x odds loses -\$75
Come bet on 6 with 5x odds loses -\$90

Imagine the damage if you're at a casino with 10x odds or 20x odds? (With no mathematical house edge on the odds, don't forget.)

This is why you never want to roll a 7 using a Molly or any come betting.

The PLACE bettor doesn't have that fear. Place bets are normally off on the come out.
TDVegas
• Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
March 25th, 2022 at 9:57:58 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: TDVegas

I believe the argument is flawed that you would only expect to lose .37 per \$100 wagered (\$25 pass, \$75 odds) vs. a lone \$25 pass. You will expect to lose the same exact amount…\$1.41.

It's a fact, not an argument. In the \$25/\$75 scenario, for every \$100 you put on the table, the casino holds .37 long term. Are you claiming that 0.37/25 = 0.37/100 ?

Don't compare \$25 pass with \$75 odds to a lone \$25 pass. Compare it to a lone \$100 pass. The vig is 4 times higher on the \$100 lone pass since it's being charged on the full \$100 instead of just \$25

My argument is \$100 pass line is expected to lose 1.41.

My argument is \$100 pass line and \$300 odds is expected to lose 1.41.

The only thing the odds bet does in terms of expectation is it ramps up the volatility. You can win OR lose a lot more money depending on how the dice go. It does not change the overall expected loss.

If your argument is make the minimum pass line with the maximum odds…I agree, somewhat. A lot of people like the advantage on come out (8 ways to win, 4 ways to lose)…a 2 to 1 win/loss advantage and the only time a player has an edge, so they commit more on the pass line.
Last edited by: TDVegas on Mar 25, 2022
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
March 25th, 2022 at 10:12:34 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

My argument is \$100 pass line and \$300 odds is expected to lose 1.41.

The only thing the odds bet does in terms of expectation is it ramps up the volatility. You can win OR lose a lot more money depending on how the dice go. It does not change the overall house edge.

OVER TIME and after MANY PLAYS you will lose 1.41% on your passline with odds.

But that's only with a PERFECT DISTRIBUTION of winning and losing hands.

The question becomes how many hands does it take to have a PERFECT DISTRIBUTION ?
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 25th, 2022 at 10:13:59 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

My comment regarding the 7 applies not only to the passline but also to each come bet you have with a 3 point molly.

In Nevada the flat bets -- including the flat bets of the come bets made using the 3 point molly -- are WORKING on every come out roll. The player can choose whether or not to have his odds working.

So you might have on a come out roll with a "winner 7" at a \$15 table with 3,4,5 odds:

New passline bet is paid +\$15
Come bets on 4, 5, 6 LOSE -\$45
Odds on 4,5,6 returned

In a WORST CASE situation when you have odds working with a "winner 7":

New passline bet is paid +\$15
Come bet on 4 with 3x odds loses -\$60
Come bet on 5 with 4x odds loses -\$75
Come bet on 6 with 5x odds loses -\$90

Imagine the damage if you're at a casino with 10x odds or 20x odds? (With no mathematical house edge on the odds, don't forget.)

This is why you never want to roll a 7 using a Molly or any come betting.

The PLACE bettor doesn't have that fear. Place bets are normally off on the come out.

It has nothing to do with Nevada. A come bet it exactly like a passline bet...once a point is established you cannot ever turn off the flat portion but you may turn off odds at any time. That's because the house's edge is realized after a point is established...if you could turn a passline bet off as soon as point was established then you would have a 33% edge on the house!

In a GOOD CASE situation when you have odds working with during comeout, the shooter rolls a 4, 5, or 6 and you win \$105 instead of \$15 with odds off. There is a 67% chance that a 4,5, or 6 will be rolled before a 7. I like those odds.

Fear or no fear, odds on or off, tourist or local, DI or no DI, a seven will come up every 6th roll, on average. Why would you make a place bet, that costs TEN TIMES the vig of a passline bet with 3/4/5 odds?

Odds bet is the only free bet in the casino, so always make it and don't ever turn it off. It's as simple as that. I'm confident that the Wizard agrees
It’s all about making that GTA
TDVegas
• Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
March 25th, 2022 at 10:16:10 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: TDVegas

My argument is \$100 pass line and \$300 odds is expected to lose 1.41.

The only thing the odds bet does in terms of expectation is it ramps up the volatility. You can win OR lose a lot more money depending on how the dice go. It does not change the overall house edge.

OVER TIME and after MANY PLAYS you will lose 1.41% on your passline with odds.

But that's only with a PERFECT DISTRIBUTION of winning and losing hands.

The question becomes how many hands does it take to have a PERFECT DISTRIBUTION ?

Well, I don’t think anyone gambles with perfect distribution in their mind. It’s simply a game expectation. Odds if you will. No one would gamble if perfect distribution was going to happen. We would always lose 1.41 per \$100.

We gamble in the hopes that variance (luck) shines on us for that 10 minutes, 30 minutes, 2 hours, etc.
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 25th, 2022 at 10:23:22 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: TDVegas

My argument is \$100 pass line and \$300 odds is expected to lose 1.41.

The only thing the odds bet does in terms of expectation is it ramps up the volatility. You can win OR lose a lot more money depending on how the dice go. It does not change the overall house edge.

OVER TIME and after MANY PLAYS you will lose 1.41% on your passline with odds.

But that's only with a PERFECT DISTRIBUTION of winning and losing hands.

The question becomes how many hands does it take to have a PERFECT DISTRIBUTION ?

Regardless of how many hands it takes to reach x confidence level (a very simple calculation), what's your point?
It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 25th, 2022 at 10:25:26 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

A lot of people like the advantage on come out (8 ways to win, 4 ways to lose)…a 2 to 1 win/loss advantage and the only time a player has an edge, so they commit more on the pass line.

What does that mean? Commit more to pass line versus what?
It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 25th, 2022 at 10:29:03 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

It’s simply a game expectation. Odds if you will. No one would gamble if perfect distribution was going to happen. We would always lose 1.41 per \$100.

I actually agree with you on that. Variance is what makes gambling fun
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
March 25th, 2022 at 10:32:36 PM permalink
Quote: ChallengedMilly

Watching the new 3 point Molly video on Color Ups YouTube channel and he's talking in detail about this particular strategy. What so you all think of it, especially in terms of a beginner?

Instead of discussing the 3 point molly -- or debating it -- I'm going to tell you what I suggest to all new players just learning:

Simply make the minimum passline bet. Then cheer along with everyone else for the shooter to win.

Once you're comfortable with that single minimum bet you can add bets and there are about 100 different bets to add on a craps table.
ChumpChange

• Posts: 4964
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
March 25th, 2022 at 10:37:19 PM permalink
I threw five 5's in a row on bubble craps the other night. If I was Come betting, I'd only get 2 winners out of that; as a place bettor, if I had placed it, would have been 5 winners. If I had won the Come bet and replaced it with a Place bet, I'd have 4 winners.
FYI, Buy bets on the 5, 9 pay 1.45X instead of 1.40X as a Place bet.
billryan
• Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
March 25th, 2022 at 11:25:01 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: TDVegas

It’s simply a game expectation. Odds if you will. No one would gamble if perfect distribution was going to happen. We would always lose 1.41 per \$100.

I actually agree with you on that. Variance is what makes gambling fun

Then I think we all are in agreement. If you could get 100X odds with a \$1 minimum bet, it could be fun if you were properly bankrolled.
Would \$10,000 be enough to play such a game?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
March 25th, 2022 at 11:38:40 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I threw five 5's in a row on bubble craps the other night. If I was Come betting, I'd only get 2 winners out of that;

Here's how I figure it.

If you were a come bettor on the 5 with double odds, at a \$5 table, this would happen:

First time 5 is rolled your \$5 come bet travels to the five. You add \$10 odds. You have paid out \$15.

Second roll on 5: you are paid \$25 and your 5 stays with \$10 odds, as the new \$5 come bet replaces the come bet that was just paid.

Third roll on 5: you are paid \$25 and your 5 stays with \$10 odds.

Fourth roll on 5: you are paid \$25 and your 5 stays with \$10 odds.

Fifth roll on 5: you are paid \$25 and your 5 stays with \$10 odds.

Then 7 out. But your last come is paid \$5.

What happened?

Your total outlay was \$30 on flat bets including the last come plus one time you added \$10 odds for a total of \$40.

You were paid \$110. Net win of \$70.

Now, if you bet \$15 on the place 5 and you rolled the 5 a total of 5 times, you would have been paid 5 X \$21 = \$105. Net win of \$90.

Am I correct?
TDVegas
• Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
March 25th, 2022 at 11:40:38 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I threw five 5's in a row on bubble craps the other night. If I was Come betting, I'd only get 2 winners out of that; as a place bettor, if I had placed it, would have been 5 winners. If I had won the Come bet and replaced it with a Place bet, I'd have 4 winners.
FYI, Buy bets on the 5, 9 pay 1.45X instead of 1.40X as a Place bet.

I’ve played bubble craps for about 10 years now. Anyone can lay out a scenario they’ve “thrown” to justify strategy A (place) or strategy B (come bet)…and make an argument which was the better plan. For some reason…the argument is always after the fact.
TDVegas
• Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
March 25th, 2022 at 11:44:31 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: TDVegas

A lot of people like the advantage on come out (8 ways to win, 4 ways to lose)…a 2 to 1 win/loss advantage and the only time a player has an edge, so they commit more on the pass line.

What does that mean? Commit more to pass line versus what?

Commit more to the pass line than the odds. If 10x odds was offered…some may choose \$5 pass, \$50 odds. Others may chose to put more on the come out roll hoping for 7-11 (8 ways). I don’t know….\$15 pass, \$40 odds. Etc.
Dieter
• Posts: 5661
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
March 26th, 2022 at 12:15:12 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

The question becomes how many hands does it take to have a PERFECT DISTRIBUTION ?

I estimate that after around 5 million rolls, the difference between actual distribution and perfect will be less than .001%, so you'd stop noticing.

A bit over a month of Sundays playing 24x7, provided whoever is buying in doesn't take too long about it.

I'm sure someone will crunch some numbers and tell me how many zeroes to add.
May the cards fall in your favor.