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ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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March 25th, 2022 at 7:15:37 PM permalink
If I was at a $5,000 max table, I could use my previously described strategy to turn a $50K buy-in to $500K. This strategy allows me to squeeze around table limits by using odds. At my top betting level I'd have around $4.8K on the PL, $4.8K among 2 Come bets, so $9.6K subject to the HA, and $19.2K on odds. When I make my place bets, they'll be $4.8K each at a higher HA, but that only kicks in after a Come Point win.
TDVegas
TDVegas
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March 25th, 2022 at 8:07:05 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Question of semantics. WizardOfOdds shows combined edge in his craps section.

The flat and odds bets aren't fully separate since you cannot make the latter without the former and because they win/lose at the same time.

However you prefer to describe it, by taking full 3/4/5 odds you are, on average, playing the 1.41% vig on 26% of your total bets made and nothing on the remaining 74%. That comes out to 0.37% vig on total bets made.

So for every 100 dollars you put on the table, the casino keeps 37 cents. That is just simple math and cannot be disputed

If you are a $100 PL bettor with no odds and decide to start playing max odds, you don't use $100 as you flat bet. You would put more like $25 as your flat bet since that would give you an average total bet of around $100 including odds. So, even though you are betting about the same amount in total, you pay nearly 3 times as much vig betting $100 with no odds than you would betting $25 with max odds.


When I see someone playing $100 on the line with no odds (not seen often) I think that's pretty dumb. Why expose $100 to the 1.41% edge when you could expose only 1/4 of it by playing $25 at max odds, with about the same level of total action? Sort of like why would you make the Big 6/8 bet when you can get the same bet at a lower edge by placing the 6 or 8. Incidentally I believe Big 6/8 has been banned in many jurisdictions since it so blatantly targets ignorant players
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I think the argument is a misnomer of sorts. Your pass line bet is subjected to 1.41% house edge. Your odds bet is 0%.

You are STILL expected to lose the same exact amount regardless if you take odds or not. Odds adds to the volatility. You can win more or lose more depending on how the dice go.

While there is definitely an argument that putting $5 on pass and $95 on odds is better than $25 on pass and $75 on odds….I believe the argument is flawed that you would only expect to lose .37 per $100 wagered ($25 pass, $75 odds) vs. a lone $25 pass. You will expect to lose the same exact amount…$1.41.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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March 25th, 2022 at 8:34:24 PM permalink
Why is there a house edge on the PL? Because the 12 loses instead of pushes I guess.
Deucekies
Deucekies
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March 25th, 2022 at 8:58:35 PM permalink
I like Two-Point Molly. Three points are hard to hit before the seven (one in six rolls).

I like Three-Point Molly if I'm on the Don't.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
Ace2
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 9:13:01 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas


I believe the argument is flawed that you would only expect to lose .37 per $100 wagered ($25 pass, $75 odds) vs. a lone $25 pass. You will expect to lose the same exact amount…$1.41.

It's a fact, not an argument. In the $25/$75 scenario, for every $100 you put on the table, the casino holds .37 long term. Are you claiming that 0.37/25 = 0.37/100 ?

Don't compare $25 pass with $75 odds to a lone $25 pass. Compare it to a lone $100 pass. The vig is 4 times higher on the $100 lone pass since it's being charged on the full $100 instead of just $25
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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March 25th, 2022 at 9:29:55 PM permalink
My comment regarding the 7 applies not only to the passline but also to each come bet you have with a 3 point molly.

In Nevada the flat bets -- including the flat bets of the come bets made using the 3 point molly -- are WORKING on every come out roll. The player can choose whether or not to have his odds working.

So you might have on a come out roll with a "winner 7" at a $15 table with 3,4,5 odds:

New passline bet is paid +$15
Come bets on 4, 5, 6 LOSE -$45
Odds on 4,5,6 returned

In a WORST CASE situation when you have odds working with a "winner 7":

New passline bet is paid +$15
Come bet on 4 with 3x odds loses -$60
Come bet on 5 with 4x odds loses -$75
Come bet on 6 with 5x odds loses -$90

Imagine the damage if you're at a casino with 10x odds or 20x odds? (With no mathematical house edge on the odds, don't forget.)

This is why you never want to roll a 7 using a Molly or any come betting.

The PLACE bettor doesn't have that fear. Place bets are normally off on the come out.
TDVegas
TDVegas
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
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March 25th, 2022 at 9:57:58 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: TDVegas


I believe the argument is flawed that you would only expect to lose .37 per $100 wagered ($25 pass, $75 odds) vs. a lone $25 pass. You will expect to lose the same exact amount…$1.41.

It's a fact, not an argument. In the $25/$75 scenario, for every $100 you put on the table, the casino holds .37 long term. Are you claiming that 0.37/25 = 0.37/100 ?

Don't compare $25 pass with $75 odds to a lone $25 pass. Compare it to a lone $100 pass. The vig is 4 times higher on the $100 lone pass since it's being charged on the full $100 instead of just $25
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My argument is $100 pass line is expected to lose 1.41.

My argument is $100 pass line and $300 odds is expected to lose 1.41.

The only thing the odds bet does in terms of expectation is it ramps up the volatility. You can win OR lose a lot more money depending on how the dice go. It does not change the overall expected loss.

If your argument is make the minimum pass line with the maximum odds…I agree, somewhat. A lot of people like the advantage on come out (8 ways to win, 4 ways to lose)…a 2 to 1 win/loss advantage and the only time a player has an edge, so they commit more on the pass line.
Last edited by: TDVegas on Mar 25, 2022
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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March 25th, 2022 at 10:12:34 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

My argument is $100 pass line and $300 odds is expected to lose 1.41.

The only thing the odds bet does in terms of expectation is it ramps up the volatility. You can win OR lose a lot more money depending on how the dice go. It does not change the overall house edge.
link to original post



Here's your mistake.

OVER TIME and after MANY PLAYS you will lose 1.41% on your passline with odds.

But that's only with a PERFECT DISTRIBUTION of winning and losing hands.

The question becomes how many hands does it take to have a PERFECT DISTRIBUTION ?
Ace2
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 10:13:59 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

My comment regarding the 7 applies not only to the passline but also to each come bet you have with a 3 point molly.

In Nevada the flat bets -- including the flat bets of the come bets made using the 3 point molly -- are WORKING on every come out roll. The player can choose whether or not to have his odds working.

So you might have on a come out roll with a "winner 7" at a $15 table with 3,4,5 odds:

New passline bet is paid +$15
Come bets on 4, 5, 6 LOSE -$45
Odds on 4,5,6 returned

In a WORST CASE situation when you have odds working with a "winner 7":

New passline bet is paid +$15
Come bet on 4 with 3x odds loses -$60
Come bet on 5 with 4x odds loses -$75
Come bet on 6 with 5x odds loses -$90

Imagine the damage if you're at a casino with 10x odds or 20x odds? (With no mathematical house edge on the odds, don't forget.)

This is why you never want to roll a 7 using a Molly or any come betting.

The PLACE bettor doesn't have that fear. Place bets are normally off on the come out.
link to original post

It has nothing to do with Nevada. A come bet it exactly like a passline bet...once a point is established you cannot ever turn off the flat portion but you may turn off odds at any time. That's because the house's edge is realized after a point is established...if you could turn a passline bet off as soon as point was established then you would have a 33% edge on the house!

In a GOOD CASE situation when you have odds working with during comeout, the shooter rolls a 4, 5, or 6 and you win $105 instead of $15 with odds off. There is a 67% chance that a 4,5, or 6 will be rolled before a 7. I like those odds.

Fear or no fear, odds on or off, tourist or local, DI or no DI, a seven will come up every 6th roll, on average. Why would you make a place bet, that costs TEN TIMES the vig of a passline bet with 3/4/5 odds?

Odds bet is the only free bet in the casino, so always make it and don't ever turn it off. It's as simple as that. I'm confident that the Wizard agrees
It’s all about making that GTA
TDVegas
TDVegas
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
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March 25th, 2022 at 10:16:10 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: TDVegas

My argument is $100 pass line and $300 odds is expected to lose 1.41.

The only thing the odds bet does in terms of expectation is it ramps up the volatility. You can win OR lose a lot more money depending on how the dice go. It does not change the overall house edge.
link to original post



Here's your mistake.

OVER TIME and after MANY PLAYS you will lose 1.41% on your passline with odds.

But that's only with a PERFECT DISTRIBUTION of winning and losing hands.

The question becomes how many hands does it take to have a PERFECT DISTRIBUTION ?
link to original post


Well, I don’t think anyone gambles with perfect distribution in their mind. It’s simply a game expectation. Odds if you will. No one would gamble if perfect distribution was going to happen. We would always lose 1.41 per $100.

We gamble in the hopes that variance (luck) shines on us for that 10 minutes, 30 minutes, 2 hours, etc.

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