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billryan
billryan 
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March 25th, 2022 at 12:39:53 PM permalink
If you are making a bet with a 1.41 house edge, that means in the long run you can expect to lose roughly $1.40 for every hundred dollars you bet. In the short term, anything can happen but overall, the house expects to take $1.40 out of every hundred dollars you wager.
The money you bet at free odds means there is no house edge and for every $100 you bet, you can expect to get back $100. You can add as many zeroes or subtract them but it is like taking money from your left pocket and putting it in your right. In the long term, of course. Short term anything can happen.
Doesn't playing the three-point molly get you to the long term faster?

Or am I off base and missing the bigger picture? I understand some people think craps is a great social game and love the instant camaraderie a hot shooter inspires but in a negative expectation game isn't the best move to bet less per roll, not more?
I do agree this isn't a hedge bet, as the term is commonly used.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ace2
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 1:01:53 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

If you are making a bet with a 1.41 house edge, that means in the long run you can expect to lose roughly $1.40 for every hundred dollars you bet. In the short term, anything can happen but overall, the house expects to take $1.40 out of every hundred dollars you wager.
The money you bet at free odds means there is no house edge and for every $100 you bet, you can expect to get back $100. You can add as many zeroes or subtract them but it is like taking money from your left pocket and putting it in your right. In the long term, of course. Short term anything can happen.
Doesn't playing the three-point molly get you to the long term faster?

Or am I off base and missing the bigger picture? I understand some people think craps is a great social game and love the instant camaraderie a hot shooter inspires but in a negative expectation game isn't the best move to bet less per roll, not more?
I do agree this isn't a hedge bet, as the term is commonly used.
link to original post

As previously posted, compared to a single PL bet, 3PM increases your total bets made by a factor of 2.4 and standard deviation by a factor of 1.9. So if you compare a $100 PL bet with full odds (combined vig of 37 cents) to a 3PM with $100, then over any time period your expected total vig in dollars will be higher by a factor of 2.4 doing 3PM. You should lower your 3PM base bet to about $40 to get about the same total betting handle, vig and variance as the single $100 PL bet
Itís all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson 
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March 25th, 2022 at 3:13:37 PM permalink
If you're using the 3PM system you NEVER want to roll a 7 because your flat bets will lose.

You better be a darn good DI if you're using Molly.
Ace2
Ace2
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odiousgambit
March 25th, 2022 at 4:31:53 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

If you're using the 3PM system you NEVER want to roll a 7 because your flat bets will lose.

You better be a darn good DI if you're using Molly.
link to original post


I suppose you're referring to the fact that a pass line bet is always working once a point has been established. A 3PM is just three passline bets on different numbers (assuming the two come bets have travelled to a number).

If you bet max odds like you always should, the flat portion of a bet is pretty small. Also, you really should keep your odds bets working at all times because it's a free bet (the only one in the casino) which you should make at every opportunity. Your total combined vig% will be lower this way.

That said, I never play 3PM when a tourist is shooting...locals only, They have much better control of the dice
Last edited by: Ace2 on Mar 25, 2022
Itís all about making that GTA
Gialmere
Gialmere
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March 25th, 2022 at 5:56:25 PM permalink
If we're talking bona fide virgin shooter type of beginner I would recommend just playing the Pass Line with odds (not even the DP) for the first visit to the table. Just get a feel for things: the lingo, the dice, the movement of the cash and chips, the pacing of the game. Watch, learn and get comfortable. Craps is a daunting game that's difficult to understand. Don't believe me? Try explaining it all to people who have never played before. It takes longer than the sixty seconds the rules of a typical new table game simplify down to. Much longer.

I'd actually forgotten all this until a few years back when I had to teach craps to a group of young people at a party. They were eager to learn, but even the core concept of the basic street game seemed to baffle them. Then when I started adding the next layer...

"They pay 2-1, 3-2 and 6-5."
"No, no. When you do it that way they pay 9-5, 7-5 and 7-6."
"No, no. The Big 6 and 8 on the corner only pay even money."
"No, no. The Field numbers are a completely different thing."
"Huh? What do you mean it's confusing?"


And, of course, it was like teaching sex ed to Beavis and Butthead

"Uh huh huh. He said "____ Line".
"Yeah! Heh heh!
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
Ace2
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 6:06:33 PM permalink
I've tried to explain the passline bet to every girl I've ever brought to Vegas and they never seem to get it. Essentially: once a point is established, all that matters is the point and seven.

Makes no sense because some of sharpest craps dealers I've had have been females

IMO there's no excuse to walk up to the table and start playing without knowing how your bet works. In the pre-internet age that was more understandable since you either had to buy a book, take a class or learn it "on the job"
Itís all about making that GTA
TDVegas
TDVegas
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March 25th, 2022 at 6:10:09 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: AlanMendelson

If you're using the 3PM system you NEVER want to roll a 7 because your flat bets will lose.

You better be a darn good DI if you're using Molly.
link to original post


I suppose you're referring to the fact that a pass line bet is always working once a point has been established. A 3PM is just three passline bets on different numbers (assuming the two come bets have travelled to a number).

If you bet max odds like you always should, the flat portion of a bet is pretty small. Also, you really should keep your odds bets working at all times because it's a free bet (the only one in the casino) which you should make at every opportunity. Your total combined vig% will be lower this way.

That said, I never play 3PM when a tourist is shooting...locals only, They have much better control of the dice
link to original post


I do not think the vig is combined to get you an overall lower house edge. Itís 2 separate bets. You are expected to lose $1.41 per $100 on pass/come bet and break even on the odds. Making an odds bet does not reduce the overall house edge. You are expected to lose the same $1.41 whether you take the bet or not.

Taking the odds just adds to volatility. If things are going well, you will make more. If things arenít going well, you will lose more than not taking odds.
Ace2
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 6:30:59 PM permalink
Question of semantics. WizardOfOdds shows combined edge in his craps section.

The flat and odds bets aren't fully separate since you cannot make the latter without the former and because they win/lose at the same time.

However you prefer to describe it, by taking full 3/4/5 odds you are, on average, playing the 1.41% vig on 26% of your total bets made and nothing on the remaining 74%. That comes out to 0.37% vig on total bets made.

So for every 100 dollars you put on the table, the casino keeps 37 cents. That is just simple math and cannot be disputed

If you are a $100 PL bettor with no odds and decide to start playing max odds, you don't use $100 as you flat bet. You would put more like $25 as your flat bet since that would give you an average total bet of around $100 including odds. So, even though you are betting about the same amount in total, you pay nearly 3 times as much vig betting $100 with no odds than you would betting $25 with max odds

When I see someone playing $100 on the line with no odds (not seen often) I think that's pretty dumb. Why expose $100 to the 1.41% edge when you could expose only 1/4 of it by playing $25 at max odds, with about the same level of total action? Sort of like why would you make the Big 6/8 bet when you can get the same bet at a lower edge by placing the 6 or 8. Incidentally I believe Big 6/8 has been banned in many jurisdictions since it so blatantly targets ignorant players
Last edited by: Ace2 on Mar 25, 2022
Itís all about making that GTA
billryan
billryan 
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March 25th, 2022 at 6:40:44 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Question of semantics. WizardOfOdds shows combined edge in his craps section.

The flat and odds bets aren't fully separate since you cannot make the latter without the former and because they win/lose at the same time.

However you prefer to describe it, by taking full 3/4/5 odds you are, on average, playing the 1.41% vig on 26% of your total bets made and nothing on the remaining 74%. That comes out to 0.37% vig on total bets made.

So for every 100 dollars you put on the table, the casino keeps 37 cents. That is just simple math and cannot be disputed
link to original post



Aren't you putting up three times the money? If you bet $100, you can expect to lose $1.41 per. If you do it your way, you still lose the same $1.41., only you risked $300 to do it.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ace2
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 6:44:30 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: Ace2

Question of semantics. WizardOfOdds shows combined edge in his craps section.

The flat and odds bets aren't fully separate since you cannot make the latter without the former and because they win/lose at the same time.

However you prefer to describe it, by taking full 3/4/5 odds you are, on average, playing the 1.41% vig on 26% of your total bets made and nothing on the remaining 74%. That comes out to 0.37% vig on total bets made.

So for every 100 dollars you put on the table, the casino keeps 37 cents. That is just simple math and cannot be disputed
link to original post



Aren't you putting up three times the money? If you bet $100, you can expect to lose $1.41 per. If you do it your way, you still lose the same $1.41., only you risked $300 to do it.
link to original post

See edited post above
Itís all about making that GTA

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