odiousgambit
• Posts: 9654
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
March 27th, 2022 at 4:51:20 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: Ace2

Quote: billryan

It doesn't matter if you bet \$100 at a 1.41 disadvantage or \$300 at a 0.37 disadvantage.

Again, if you are \$100 bettor then you obviously don't bet \$300. You'd make a \$25 passline bet plus 3/4/5 odds, which keeps your total average wager close to \$100 (\$94.44 actually) but allocates the majority of the wager to the free odds portion, reducing the overall edge from 1.41 to 0.37.

You are not increasing your wager, you are just reallocating most it to a much more favorable vig. This is a fundamental/basic point...and you are still unable grasp it

I get it.
You know that a bet with a 1.41 house edge is a bad bet. Bad enough you don't want to play it, so the casino offers you a chance to bet more money on a bet with no edge.You are so thrilled with being able to bet \$300 on a bet the house has no edge on that you don't mind the paltry \$1.41 you will lose on your other bet.
Would you bet the pass line if no odds were allowed? Or is a 1.41 house advantage too much for you?

Edit: it doesn't matter if you are betting \$25, \$100, or 1000K. For every \$100 you bet on the pass line you will lose \$1.41 and for every bazillion dollars you take on the odds you will lose nothing. Does the three point molly change that?

This is a case of a non-player evaluating a game ... there are just some things that have to be experienced to 'get it'

Mr Ryan should just try betting the pass line with no free odds or other bets. I've done that to kill time while waiting for someone. It is monumentally boring, later I found out why. The Pass Line has a standard deviation of 1.00; about the only thing significantly worse is a coin flip. Since the expectation is negative, the combination tends to mean you just watch your bankroll slowly dwindle.

The experience when you add free odds changes that completely, it's not remotely the same game.

Also we have some in this thread still setting up a straw man that they then enjoy tearing down. We get it. There is a house edge and we know we aren't designing a way to beat it.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
tuttigym
• Posts: 1940
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
March 27th, 2022 at 7:25:10 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: AlanMendelson

I think we all understand that figures such as 1.41% representing the house edge are all examples of long term math probabilities and have nothing to do with actual payoffs.

Wrong. If you are making pass line bets only, over the long term your loss will be:

(bets won x payoff - bets lost) / (total bets made) = 7/495 = 1.41%

Taking this "4th grade arithmetic"* one step further, the standard deviation will be about: 1 / (total bets made)^.5

*quoting my mentor and teacher here - tuttigym

Long live 4th grade arithmetic!! When I play, since I know that I cannot perform the actual 7/495 or 1.41% HA, I do not allow that math to enter my wager/playing strategies. My 4th grade approach is via actual probabilities which tries to overcome the -EV.

tuttigym
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 27th, 2022 at 7:29:37 AM permalink
That is a 4th grade approach because you will not overcome the EV in the long run.

But anything with an EV better than -100% and be "beaten" with variance over the short term
It’s all about making that GTA
billryan
• Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
March 27th, 2022 at 8:14:54 AM permalink
Substitute " luck" for variance and a true picture emerges. If one gets lucky, having more money on the board will give you better results than having less. Sounds like a great game plan.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TDVegas
• Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
March 27th, 2022 at 9:27:40 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Mr Ryan should just try betting the pass line with no free odds or other bets. I've done that to kill time while waiting for someone. It is monumentally boring, later I found out why. The Pass Line has a standard deviation of 1.00; about the only thing significantly worse is a coin flip. Since the expectation is negative, the combination tends to mean you just watch your bankroll slowly dwindle.

The experience when you add free odds changes that completely, it's not remotely the same game.

Your bankroll is “going to slowly dwindle” regardless of how you play.

It’s not a game of profit. It’s a game of recreation. Your “killing time” is someone else’s enjoyment. You may not see it that way, but that’s you, not them. Virtually any low stakes gambler (say \$1 bubble craps) playing a 3 point Molly is “killing time”, whether he takes odds or not. He’s also “killing time” playing any low house edge strategy. Yet, I see hundreds of them all over Vegas. They seem to be smiling, enjoying themselves. It’s a personal experience…not one where you put your experience on others as far as recreation.

You can’t bet for others. You can’t tell them what they should enjoy. You can’t even suggest to them to “bet more”. These are personal decisions, usually based on comfort level.

I’ve played a 3 point Molly without odds. So what? I’m willing to give up the fractional better play (dollar wise) as bankroll and time at table might be more important than the long term overall reduction in house edge. Volatility and variance will likely trump in the short term, regardless.

Again, it’s not a game of profit. When it comes to recreation…do as you want I say. If someone is genuinely interested in cutting house edge by wagering differently…if they are on a \$5 table, a 3 point Molly is either \$15 at risk or if odds “must” be taken “because it’s a better play”…now you’ve doubled the risk. This could also apply to higher limits.

Say someone tells him to just make a \$5 pass and \$10 odds instead…well, he doesn’t want just 1 number in play. He wants a little more action.
unJon
• Posts: 4662
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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March 27th, 2022 at 9:50:19 AM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

Quote: odiousgambit

Mr Ryan should just try betting the pass line with no free odds or other bets. I've done that to kill time while waiting for someone. It is monumentally boring, later I found out why. The Pass Line has a standard deviation of 1.00; about the only thing significantly worse is a coin flip. Since the expectation is negative, the combination tends to mean you just watch your bankroll slowly dwindle.

The experience when you add free odds changes that completely, it's not remotely the same game.

Your bankroll is “going to slowly dwindle” regardless of how you play.

It’s not a game of profit. It’s a game of recreation. Your “killing time” is someone else’s enjoyment. You may not see it that way, but that’s you, not them. Virtually any low stakes gambler (say \$1 bubble craps) playing a 3 point Molly is “killing time”, whether he takes odds or not. He’s also “killing time” playing any low house edge strategy. Yet, I see hundreds of them all over Vegas. They seem to be smiling, enjoying themselves. It’s a personal experience…not one where you put your experience on others as far as recreation.

You can’t bet for others. You can’t tell them what they should enjoy. You can’t even suggest to them to “bet more”. These are personal decisions, usually based on comfort level.

I’ve played a 3 point Molly without odds. So what? I’m willing to give up the fractional better play (dollar wise) as bankroll and time at table might be more important than the long term overall reduction in house edge. Volatility and variance will likely trump in the short term, regardless.

Again, it’s not a game of profit. When it comes to recreation…do as you want I say. If someone is genuinely interested in cutting house edge by wagering differently…if they are on a \$5 table, a 3 point Molly is either \$15 at risk or if odds “must” be taken “because it’s a better play”…now you’ve doubled the risk. This could also apply to higher limits.

Say someone tells him to just make a \$5 pass and \$10 odds instead…well, he doesn’t want just 1 number in play. He wants a little more action.

Agree with all this and super fair response. Think we are on same page.

One more item though. If you see someone at a \$15 table betting a \$25 pass line with no odds, tell them to bet \$15 pass line with \$10 odds instead!
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
TDVegas
• Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
March 27th, 2022 at 10:03:13 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: TDVegas

Quote: odiousgambit

Mr Ryan should just try betting the pass line with no free odds or other bets. I've done that to kill time while waiting for someone. It is monumentally boring, later I found out why. The Pass Line has a standard deviation of 1.00; about the only thing significantly worse is a coin flip. Since the expectation is negative, the combination tends to mean you just watch your bankroll slowly dwindle.

The experience when you add free odds changes that completely, it's not remotely the same game.

Your bankroll is “going to slowly dwindle” regardless of how you play.

It’s not a game of profit. It’s a game of recreation. Your “killing time” is someone else’s enjoyment. You may not see it that way, but that’s you, not them. Virtually any low stakes gambler (say \$1 bubble craps) playing a 3 point Molly is “killing time”, whether he takes odds or not. He’s also “killing time” playing any low house edge strategy. Yet, I see hundreds of them all over Vegas. They seem to be smiling, enjoying themselves. It’s a personal experience…not one where you put your experience on others as far as recreation.

You can’t bet for others. You can’t tell them what they should enjoy. You can’t even suggest to them to “bet more”. These are personal decisions, usually based on comfort level.

I’ve played a 3 point Molly without odds. So what? I’m willing to give up the fractional better play (dollar wise) as bankroll and time at table might be more important than the long term overall reduction in house edge. Volatility and variance will likely trump in the short term, regardless.

Again, it’s not a game of profit. When it comes to recreation…do as you want I say. If someone is genuinely interested in cutting house edge by wagering differently…if they are on a \$5 table, a 3 point Molly is either \$15 at risk or if odds “must” be taken “because it’s a better play”…now you’ve doubled the risk. This could also apply to higher limits.

Say someone tells him to just make a \$5 pass and \$10 odds instead…well, he doesn’t want just 1 number in play. He wants a little more action.

Agree with all this and super fair response. Think we are on same page.

One more item though. If you see someone at a \$15 table betting a \$25 pass line with no odds, tell them to bet \$15 pass line with \$10 odds instead!

I long ago gave up doing that. If one wants to tell others what to do…I would try and gauge “personality” beforehand. I’ve seen too many people give a look of “thanks, but mind your effing business” as far as receiving gambling strategy advice.

You know how many times I’ve seen people walk up to bubble craps after the point is established and then make a pass line wager? Can’t count. Your instinct tells them to place or buy the number….until you get someone telling you mind your F business. It might be done in a nice way as well.

To each his own. If it’s a beginner looking for advice or someone who looks like they genuinely don’t know the game, playing the first time, etc, I might offer. Otherwise, nope.
ChumpChange
• Posts: 4997
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
March 27th, 2022 at 10:03:16 AM permalink
If you make \$20 buy bets on the 5, you'll get paid \$29 if it's vig on a win, \$28 if it's just vig which you would get with a place bet anyway.
If you win 300 buy bets, you would have won \$8700. If you won 300 place bets, you would have won \$8400. If you had won 300 odds bets on the 5, you would have won \$9,000. So from \$9000, you would be down 15 x \$20 bets on the buy bets, and 30 x \$20 bets down on the place bets. If you were betting \$6,000 (300 bets x \$20) on the pass line too (with single odds), you'd be down 1.41% of that which is \$84.60. So you'll save \$515.40 if you bet odds on the 5 instead of place betting in this scenario, and it would be a lot less built-in loss to overcome with your good luck streaks.

If I want to expand this out to the 4, 10, \$20 buy bets with vig on a win pay \$39, and \$20 place bets pay \$36. 300 x \$39 = \$11,700 and 300 x \$36 = \$10,800 and 300 x \$40 (odds payback) = \$12,000. So you'll be down 15 x \$20 bets for vig on a win but down 60 x \$20 bets for the place bet.

If I want to expand this out to the 6, 8, nobody buys bets on the 6, 8 (but they could on bubble craps, but I won't), but since a \$20 bet pays \$23.33 on bubble craps as a place bet (7/6), 300 x \$23.33 = \$7,000. If it was odds that would pay \$24, so 300 x \$24 = \$7,200. You'd be down 10 x \$20 bets for making place bets instead of odds bets, and the HE on the \$20 PL is still less than half of that \$200 difference.

If I have 300 PL with single odds bets on the 4/10, another 300 PL with single odds bets on the 5/9, and another 300 PL bets with single odds on the 6/8, I'll have bet \$18K on the PL & \$18K on the Odds. My expected loss on the PL would be \$253.80, multiply that by 30% for comps and there's \$76.14 in comps, more like \$30 on the bubble craps at 1 cent per \$6, or \$60 if the machine counted odds bets too.
If I wanted to play place bets for all those numbers (because I don't believe in vigs), I'd be down \$1200 (on the 4/10) + \$600 (on the 5/9) + \$200 (on the 6/8) for a total of \$2,000.
If I was doing buy bets on the 4,5,9,10 (like on bubble craps) I'd be down \$300 (on the 4/10) + \$300 (on the 5/9) + \$200 (on the 6/8) for a total of \$800.
If I was just doing buy bets on the 4, 10 (like at a table), I'd be down \$300 (on the 4/10) + \$600 (on the 5/9) + \$200 (on the 6/8) for a total of \$1,100.
Again, putting all your place bets onto the odds side erases ridiculous amounts of house edge.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Mar 27, 2022
billryan
• Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
March 27th, 2022 at 10:04:05 AM permalink
In that situation, the player would only get comp consideration on 60% of his action, correct? You don't earn comps on odds bets, do you?
In this particular case, wouldn't the player betting \$25 on the pass line qualify for a hypothetical steak dinner long before the \$15 backed by \$10 guy?
I'd have to delve deep to see if giving up 40% of your comps is a good move or not. It obviously would change from casino to casino.
Walking away from the table with a few more dollars may or may not be better than losing more but getting better comps.
Will a \$100 pass line player get treated better than a \$25 backed by \$75 one? Is the difference worth discussing?
In the end, you won't beat the dice, but you can beat the marketing department.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TDVegas
• Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
March 27th, 2022 at 10:14:00 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

In that situation, the player would only get comp consideration on 60% of his action, correct? You don't earn comps on odds bets, do you?
In this particular case, wouldn't the player betting \$25 on the pass line qualify for a hypothetical steak dinner long before the \$15 backed by \$10 guy?
I'd have to delve deep to see if giving up 40% of your comps is a good move or not. It obviously would change from casino to casino.
Walking away from the table with a few more dollars may or may not be better than losing more but getting better comps.
Will a \$100 pass line player get treated better than a \$25 backed by \$75 one? Is the difference worth discussing?
In the end, you won't beat the dice, but you can beat the marketing department.

It’s a valid point and kind of goes towards the idea I don’t tell others at the table how to structure your bets. They may have reasons I don’t know. I’ve seen “looks could kill” of players who think they know what they are doing telling others they are “playing wrong”. It’s not always a good interaction.
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 27th, 2022 at 10:31:35 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Substitute " luck" for variance and a true picture emerges. If one gets lucky, having more money on the board will give you better results than having less. Sounds like a great game plan.

For any game and session length you can easily calculate your expectation and standard deviation and also measure your chance of being up on the casino. This is what makes statistics so great: you can quantify "luck"

For 12 hours of passline play with 3/4/5 odds, my expectation, using the flat bet amount as a reference, is about -5 units +/- 93. This gives me about a 48% percent chance of beating the casino over a weekend. So close to break even you can't even tell the difference...I basically win every other trip (48 of 100), though there will be plenty of good and bad streaks

If you flat bet \$25 then your average total bet will be close to \$100 with odds. Though there will be a ton of (fun) variance, the average cost is only 5 * \$25 = \$125 and the average deviation from that figure will be (2/π)^.5 * 93 * \$25 = \$1,855. Where else can you get a weekend of entertainment for \$125, unlimited drinks included? And plenty of hookers to chat with lol

For a 3 point molly, multiply the average loss by 2.4 and the SD by 1.9. I usually play 3PM or I'll do a single passline bet, but for two or three times the amount. 3PM is fun because it more that doubles the bet resolution rate, but it can also be fun to put more money on a single bet that is resolved less frequently.

Try a "seven point molly" aka "always coming" if you really want to speed up the game. I've only done this at lower limit tables...it's a lot of money out there when six points are covered, plus come. But if you happen to get a good long roll, it's like you're winning on every roll
It’s all about making that GTA
unJon
• Posts: 4662
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
March 27th, 2022 at 10:31:40 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

In that situation, the player would only get comp consideration on 60% of his action, correct? You don't earn comps on odds bets, do you?
In this particular case, wouldn't the player betting \$25 on the pass line qualify for a hypothetical steak dinner long before the \$15 backed by \$10 guy?
I'd have to delve deep to see if giving up 40% of your comps is a good move or not. It obviously would change from casino to casino.
Walking away from the table with a few more dollars may or may not be better than losing more but getting better comps.
Will a \$100 pass line player get treated better than a \$25 backed by \$75 one? Is the difference worth discussing?
In the end, you won't beat the dice, but you can beat the marketing department.

It is a good point. Based on only my own play and my discussions with pit bosses, I know I am generally getting comp credit for my odds bets at MGM strip casinos.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 27th, 2022 at 10:44:23 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

It is a good point. Based on only my own play and my discussions with pit bosses, I know I am generally getting comp credit for my odds bets at MGM strip casinos.

There is lots of debate on whether some casinos do or don't comp odds bets. Technically they shouldn't, because the idea of comps is they are refunding you a portion of your theoretical loss. But, from what I've read, that's not always the case. Even casinos that have a policy of not comping free odds bet might do so, at least to a degree. For instance, I've read you buy-in amount can be a significant factor for comps, and when you buy in they don't know you're going to put 75% of your action on free odds.

Unjon, can you quantify how much credit you get? My understanding is that casinos rebate about 30% of your theo loss, but what theo loss % do they use for a passline bet with max odds?
It’s all about making that GTA
TDVegas
• Posts: 1186
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March 27th, 2022 at 10:46:27 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Try a "seven point molly" aka "always coming" if you really want to speed up the game. I've only done this at lower limit tables...it's a lot of money out there when six points are covered, plus come. But if you happen to get a good long roll, it's like you're winning on every roll

I’ve done it in low limit bubble craps. It can be fun if you get a long roll going. Constant action.
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
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March 27th, 2022 at 10:55:52 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

One more item though. If you see someone at a \$15 table betting a \$25 pass line with no odds, tell them to bet \$15 pass line with \$10 odds instead!

Agree with concept, but I think there might be a 1X minimum for odds. So \$15 plus \$15 odds. Better yet, go to \$5 table and play 3/4/5 odds. I assume they still exist downtown
It’s all about making that GTA
pwcrabb
• Posts: 185
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March 27th, 2022 at 11:05:01 AM permalink
Molly is mathematically solid. House Edge is negligible.

Molly is simple. Novices can keep up with the movements of three Flat Bets and three Odds Bets.

Molly is scalable. Exposure and Variance can be increased or decreased simply by increasing or decreasing only the Odds Bets.

Molly is flexible. Bright Side Molly and Dark Side Molly are nearly mirror opposites.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
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March 27th, 2022 at 11:18:43 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

If you make \$20 buy bets on the 5, you'll get paid \$29 if it's vig on a win, \$28 if it's just vig which you would get with a place bet anyway.
If you win 300 buy bets, you would have won \$8700. If you won 300 place bets, you would have won \$8400. If you had won 300 odds bets on the 5, you would have won \$9,000. So from \$9000, you would be down 15 x \$20 bets on the buy bets, and 30 x \$20 bets down on the place bets. If you were betting \$6,000 (300 bets x \$20) on the pass line too (with single odds), you'd be down 1.41% of that which is \$84.60. So you'll save \$515.40 if you bet odds on the 5 instead of place betting in this scenario, and it would be a lot less built-in loss to overcome with your good luck streaks.

If I want to expand this out to the 4, 10, \$20 buy bets with vig on a win pay \$39, and \$20 place bets pay \$36. 300 x \$39 = \$11,700 and 300 x \$36 = \$10,800 and 300 x \$40 (odds payback) = \$12,000. So you'll be down 15 x \$20 bets for vig on a win but down 60 x \$20 bets for the place bet.

If I want to expand this out to the 6, 8, nobody buys bets on the 6, 8 (but they could on bubble craps, but I won't), but since a \$20 bet pays \$23.33 on bubble craps as a place bet (7/6), 300 x \$23.33 = \$7,000. If it was odds that would pay \$24, so 300 x \$24 = \$7,200. You'd be down 10 x \$20 bets for making place bets instead of odds bets, and the HE on the \$20 PL is still less than half of that \$200 difference.

If I have 300 PL with single odds bets on the 4/10, another 300 PL with single odds bets on the 5/9, and another 300 PL bets with single odds on the 6/8, I'll have bet \$18K on the PL & \$18K on the Odds. My expected loss on the PL would be \$253.80, multiply that by 30% for comps and there's \$76.14 in comps, more like \$30 on the bubble craps at 1 cent per \$6, or \$60 if the machine counted odds bets too.
If I wanted to play place bets for all those numbers (because I don't believe in vigs), I'd be down \$1200 (on the 4/10) + \$600 (on the 5/9) + \$200 (on the 6/8) for a total of \$2,000.
If I was doing buy bets on the 4,5,9,10 (like on bubble craps) I'd be down \$300 (on the 4/10) + \$300 (on the 5/9) + \$200 (on the 6/8) for a total of \$800.
If I was just doing buy bets on the 4, 10 (like at a table), I'd be down \$300 (on the 4/10) + \$600 (on the 5/9) + \$200 (on the 6/8) for a total of \$1,100.
Again, putting all your place bets onto the odds side erases ridiculous amounts of house edge.

Dang that's a lot of arithmetic!

If you expect to win 300 bets buying the 5, that means you made 300 / .4 = 750 bets.

-If you make 750 buy5 bets for \$21, your expected loss is 750 * \$1 = \$750. Commission on win and loss

-If you make 750 place5 bets for \$21, your expected loss is 750 * \$21 * .04 = \$630. Assume no rounding

-If you make 750 passline bets for \$21, your expected loss is 750 * \$21 * .0141 = \$223. Irrespective of free odds bet

-If you make 750 passline bets for \$5 and take 3/4/5 odds, giving you about the same level of total action as buying/placing the 5 for \$21 or a \$21 passline bet with no odds, your expected loss is 750 * \$5 * .0141 = \$53. I'd go with this option, since buying the 5 is about 14 times more expensive. Not to mention it has much more variety and variance (fun) than buying the 5
Last edited by: Ace2 on Mar 27, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
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March 27th, 2022 at 11:28:46 AM permalink
Quote: pwcrabb

Molly is flexible. Bright Side Molly and Dark Side Molly are nearly mirror opposites.

True but the molly really accentuates the opposite effect. With Bright side molly you lose everything on 7, with Dark side you win everything. A very long roll feels great on the bright side, but is like torture on the dark side
It’s all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
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March 27th, 2022 at 11:35:07 AM permalink
I'd do a 5-count on the dark side.
ChumpChange
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March 27th, 2022 at 11:42:49 AM permalink
Yo, I just won all those bets, no losses. Adding losses changes the computations substantially.
odiousgambit
• Posts: 9654
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
March 27th, 2022 at 11:44:22 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: pwcrabb

Molly is flexible. Bright Side Molly and Dark Side Molly are nearly mirror opposites.

True but the molly really accentuates the opposite effect. With Bright side molly you lose everything on 7, with Dark side you win everything. A very long roll feels great on the bright side, but is like torture on the dark side

I agree and will say if you want to go darkside with a molly limit it to 2 points. I say this from experience, it is counter-intuitive to a degree. The idea of building up points as a darkside player sounds great! Maybe you have all 6 numbers up there. Well, you forgot the [likely] cost of getting there. Then you watch as each point maybe gets knocked off one by one, a very frequent event. It's getting expensive for the player to 'replace' points after paying that cost. Intuition may have been saying to you "it's a great situation as the odds are in your favor at this point in the game"... a true statement that ignores cost to get there.

And it also ignores a big factor: Would you go 6 or 7 point molly rightside? If the answer is no because of the risk given the table minimum, it is a gambler's fallacy to think such risk won't affect you darkside. It's putting too much in action ... that is, if it would be rightside, it will be darkside.

I distinctly remember the cost of that fallacy as it coincided with the first time I lost \$1000 playing Craps. There's a confession for you!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Gialmere
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March 27th, 2022 at 12:22:35 PM permalink
Agreed. Remember, the OP asks about advice for a beginner. Assuming a modest bankroll, laying all those odds for dark side Mollies could get you wiped out so fast that you might not last long enough to even see a waitress much less get a free drink.

P.S. I love this thread, best craps discussion in years.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
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March 27th, 2022 at 12:31:08 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Yo, I just won all those bets, no losses. Adding losses changes the computations substantially.

There will be wins and losses. You can only evaluate your expected net result over x bets. You can't ignore part of the equation (especially the most frequent part - the losses)
It’s all about making that GTA
TDVegas
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March 27th, 2022 at 12:35:34 PM permalink
You really can’t ignore the math with “experience”. A dark side Molly is marginally better than a right side Molly. The math says so. I wouldn’t play it as I like playing with the table, not against it. Nevertheless, either the math matters or it doesn’t.
pwcrabb
• Posts: 185
Joined: May 15, 2010
March 27th, 2022 at 12:49:38 PM permalink
The OP did seek help for a beginner. The Dark Side is not easily understood by many beginners. Moreover, as Ace2 suggests, the Dark Side experience is radically different.

With experience introducing literally hundreds of party guests to craps, I have discovered the practical limits of the learning curves of adults carrying drinks. Laying Odds is too complicated. Taking Odds correctly is just about at the cognitive frontier. A Bright Side Molly is enough to handle.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 27th, 2022 at 12:52:10 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

You really can’t ignore the math with “experience”. A dark side Molly is marginally better than a right side Molly. The math says so. I wouldn’t play it as I like playing with the table, not against it. Nevertheless, either the math matters or it doesn’t.

Yes, a don't pass bet is slightly better than a passline (1.36% vs 1.41%), but for all practical purposes they are equal. 5 basis points is nothing and you'd have to make a zillion bets before realizing any difference

Some people exclude the 12 on comeout (push) from the don't pass calculation. That makes the edge 1.40%, within 1 bip of passline. Almost identical
It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 27th, 2022 at 1:04:57 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I agree and will say if you want to go darkside with a molly limit it to 2 points. I say this from experience, it is counter-intuitive to a degree. The idea of building up points as a darkside player sounds great! Maybe you have all 6 numbers up there. Well, you forgot the [likely] cost of getting there. Then you watch as each point maybe gets knocked off one by one, a very frequent event. It's getting expensive for the player to 'replace' points after paying that cost. Intuition may have been saying to you "it's a great situation as the odds are in your favor at this point in the game"... a true statement that ignores cost to get there.

And it also ignores a big factor: Would you go 6 or 7 point molly rightside? If the answer is no because of the risk given the table minimum, it is a gambler's fallacy to think such risk won't affect you darkside. It's putting too much in action ... that is, if it would be rightside, it will be darkside.

I distinctly remember the cost of that fallacy as it coincided with the first time I lost \$1000 playing Craps. There's a confession for you!

Or, you do a 3 point molly but for a lesser base amount. Or a 7 point molly for an even lesser base amount. If the swings are above your comfort level, then your base bet amount is simply too high. IMO, bet level should be high enough to keep you interested but no so high that it makes you sweat or lose something you can't really afford.
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
March 27th, 2022 at 1:09:19 PM permalink
At a \$15 table the minimum odds is \$15. If you know of a casino that allows less please tell what it is.
Gialmere
• Posts: 3006
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
March 27th, 2022 at 1:12:45 PM permalink
I would ask those here to try and remember their first time at a craps table. What was your plan? How much money was in your pocket? Were you nervous?

As a thought experiment, if you could go back in time and give yourself some quick advice on what to do, what would you tell yourself?
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 27th, 2022 at 1:20:20 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

I would ask those here to try and remember their first time at a craps table. What was your plan? How much money was in your pocket? Were you nervous?

As a thought experiment, if you could go back in time and give yourself some quick advice on what to do, what would you tell yourself?

Was only about 7 years ago for me. Before that I was a blackjack player (still play occasionally but craps is my core game)

I wasn't nervous at all. A beginner can look up that game online and learn the passline bet in a few minutes. And if you have any questions or doubts, the dealers and players are usually very helpful, just like I am now to new players. I probably did decline to be the shooter at the very beginning, but that changed quickly. Now I love to shoot at a crowded table which is odd because I normally dislike public situations when all eyes are on me

But I was nervous my first time playing blackjack. Basic strategy, splits, doubles, speed, handling cards correctly in a pitch game. Much more complex, many more things to potentially do wrong than a passline bet. It becomes second nature quickly, but intimidating when you just start
It’s all about making that GTA
Gialmere
• Posts: 3006
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
March 27th, 2022 at 1:33:40 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Was only about 7 years ago for me...

Wow! I had no idea. Your knowledge of the game is so extensive that I just assumed you had been playing since the days when the Silver Slipper was shut down for using flat dice.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
ChumpChange
• Posts: 4997
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
March 27th, 2022 at 1:35:59 PM permalink
I used to just bring 3 x \$60 sessions with me for 3 x 10 x \$6 bets so I could bet the PL when I shoot, or \$6 on the 6 or 8. I'd try to double or nothing my session money and it usually took 30-90 minutes to reach a win/loss goal; then I would move on to another table. My big win was doing a 5-count on the DC starting on roll #4. I used to have a casino cup on a hip belt and I would just put my chips in that if they weren't on the rail. I could zipper it up so it was secure. It allowed me to go game to game without coloring up. Nowadays it's nearly mandatory to color up and my hip bucket would likely be disallowed.

My local casino used to have Morning \$5 tables before the pandemic, but now it's \$15 no matter the time. Another casino also had a \$5 table, but now it's \$15.
If I was going to just play PL with single odds, my minimum bet would be \$20 + \$20, so for a 15 round buy-in it would be \$600. I'd be on the cusp of raising my bets to \$30 + \$30. But since I haven't won that much, I'll have to settle for \$60 sessions at \$2 + \$2 on the bubble craps and I'd be on the cusp of raising my bets to \$3 + \$3.
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 27th, 2022 at 1:57:30 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

Quote: Ace2

Was only about 7 years ago for me...

Wow! I had no idea. Your knowledge of the game is so extensive that I just assumed you had been playing since the days when the Silver Slipper was shut down for using flat dice.

It's a very basic game. And I only have experience with pass/come/dp/dc. I know the math of most the other bets but have never played them. Any good craps tutorial will tell right away to avoid all the center sucker bets. Place/buy bets are also sucker bets since most carry an edge comparable to double zero roulette. Placing 6/8 isn't so bad relative to the others but its edge is still about six times DP with 3/4/5 odds, which, besides having a much lower edge, has much more variety and variance
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
March 27th, 2022 at 2:04:15 PM permalink
I've been playing craps since Caesars Palace had \$5 tables. LOL
TDVegas
• Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
March 27th, 2022 at 2:16:40 PM permalink
I believe the El Cortez had \$3 tables not that long ago.
unJon
• Posts: 4662
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
March 27th, 2022 at 2:48:03 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: unJon

It is a good point. Based on only my own play and my discussions with pit bosses, I know I am generally getting comp credit for my odds bets at MGM strip casinos.

There is lots of debate on whether some casinos do or don't comp odds bets. Technically they shouldn't, because the idea of comps is they are refunding you a portion of your theoretical loss. But, from what I've read, that's not always the case. Even casinos that have a policy of not comping free odds bet might do so, at least to a degree. For instance, I've read you buy-in amount can be a significant factor for comps, and when you buy in they don't know you're going to put 75% of your action on free odds.

Unjon, can you quantify how much credit you get? My understanding is that casinos rebate about 30% of your theo loss, but what theo loss % do they use for a passline bet with max odds?

I couldn’t. I black chip with full odds. And go back and forth between come betting or place betting 6/8. (If it’s vig on win, I will sometimes buy the 4 and 10.) At the end of sessions, if I’ve struck up a relationship with pit boss, I’ll ask what they have me down as an average roll.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 27th, 2022 at 4:04:23 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

I couldn’t. I black chip with full odds. And go back and forth between come betting or place betting 6/8. (If it’s vig on win, I will sometimes buy the 4 and 10.) At the end of sessions, if I’ve struck up a relationship with pit boss, I’ll ask what they have me down as an average roll.

If you are alternating between place and come then that might partially explain it.

What average roll do they book you for and what does it get you?
It’s all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
• Posts: 4997
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
March 27th, 2022 at 4:38:26 PM permalink
I'm trying to figure out what my SDs are. If I go from 100 PL bets to 400 PL bets, I just double the values in the chart. So instead of +/-10 units, it'd be +/-20 units at 0X odds (minus the HA).
I'm trying to figure my upside and +2 SD would reach my win goal (+35 units) in 400 bets. My buy-in would be 25 units, so just a bit more than -1 SD. Seems I could call it a winning session at +15 units (< +1 SD) too.

Last edited by: ChumpChange on Mar 27, 2022
Dieter
• Posts: 5703
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
March 27th, 2022 at 5:57:21 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

I would ask those here to try and remember their first time at a craps table. What was your plan? How much money was in your pocket? Were you nervous?

As a thought experiment, if you could go back in time and give yourself some quick advice on what to do, what would you tell yourself?

No plan other than to see if I liked the action and what all the fuss was about. Probably had about \$100 in chips that I was ready to play; \$5 table. (My newer advice says 40x the base unit.)

Take the odds, toke the crew, have fun throwing the dice and cheering with your new friends (if you're on the bright side), try not to smirk when you win (on the dark side).

I don't particularly like the game, but I wouldn't know that unless I'd tried it a few times.
May the cards fall in your favor.
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
March 27th, 2022 at 7:38:55 PM permalink
Even if a casino includes odds when giving comps you still face the problem that table game comps are arbitrary. I see floor people rarely update the betting in their computers. And for this reason I think your best strategy is to start off with big bets -- get the big bets recorded-- and then reduce your bets to your comfort level.

About 7 or 8 years ago Caesars started including odds in comps but their table game comp formula remained a mystery.

Red Rock where I play now includes odds but again who knows how ratings are made? Station Casinos stopped showing points for table game players on its website players records.

Same with Boyd. Table game play is not broken out on its website.

Is there any casino which will tell you what your table game bets are actually worth towards comps????
daveyandersen1
• Posts: 126
Joined: Mar 27, 2015
March 29th, 2022 at 2:00:15 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

You can lose all three numbers so it's definitely not a hedge. A hedge would dilute the loss on the 6 if you lose it. Regardless, I abide by the "thou shalt not hedge thy bets" commandment. Variance is what makes gambling fun

3 point molly is just increasing your action by betting on one or two more numbers. Like placing one or two more numbers except that you don't get to choose which numbers and also the overall edge on come bets is MUCH lower than place bets, assuming you take the free odds

Your explanation of 3point molly was spot on ACE2..IF The O P dosent get what 3 p m is now he ( or she ) shouldn't play...
daveyandersen1
• Posts: 126
Joined: Mar 27, 2015
March 29th, 2022 at 2:06:21 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

In a convoluted way each additional come bet becomes a hedge against a 7, because the come bet will be paid on the 7 while all the existing bets lose.

Again... it's a convoluted way to look at it.

I'll go with the majority, however. 3 point molly is only a name applied to a strategy of having three come bets with odds, and its not a hedging system.

Laying the 4 or ten while making come bets would be a hedge.

YOU ARE CORRECT SIR!!!!!
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 29th, 2022 at 2:20:05 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Even if a casino includes odds when giving comps you still face the problem that table game comps are arbitrary. I see floor people rarely update the betting in their computers. And for this reason I think your best strategy is to start off with big bets -- get the big bets recorded-- and then reduce your bets to your comfort level.

About 7 or 8 years ago Caesars started including odds in comps but their table game comp formula remained a mystery.

Red Rock where I play now includes odds but again who knows how ratings are made? Station Casinos stopped showing points for table game players on its website players records.

Same with Boyd. Table game play is not broken out on its website.

Is there any casino which will tell you what your table game bets are actually worth towards comps????

I'd think they use some kind of average percentage like blackjack comps assume a 2% edge for all players (so I've read). Seems it would be unfeasible to tailor the percentage for each player, especially since one player can often be making low edge bets (like passline with odds) and high edge ones (like hardways) concurrently. But who knows... it might be just a crapshoot
Last edited by: Ace2 on Mar 29, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
billryan
• Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
March 29th, 2022 at 2:51:10 PM permalink
Years ago I was told one of the easiest ways to get a comp room in AC was to be a regular \$25 Hard 8 bettor.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Joeman
• Posts: 2428
Joined: Feb 21, 2014
March 29th, 2022 at 3:00:34 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

I would ask those here to try and remember their first time at a craps table. What was your plan? How much money was in your pocket? Were you nervous?

I was 19 or 20 on a casino boat out of Ft Lauderdale. No plan, maybe \$100 in my pocket. I was more excited than nervous. I have known the base game of craps since I was a kid. Had no clue about odds, place bets, center bets, etc.

Quote:

As a thought experiment, if you could go back in time and give yourself some quick advice on what to do, what would you tell yourself?

Take odds!!!

At one point, I made 8 passes, all with just a PL bet and no odds. Near the end of my roll one of the other guys at the table was betting my odds for me, but I still had no clue at the time.
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
TDVegas
• Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
March 29th, 2022 at 3:56:57 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Years ago I was told one of the easiest ways to get a comp room in AC was to be a regular \$25 Hard 8 bettor.

At a 9% house edge…I’m sure.
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 29th, 2022 at 4:35:31 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Years ago I was told one of the easiest ways to get a comp room in AC was to be a regular \$25 Hard 8 bettor.

The any seven bet should get you there twice as fast. Bet that all weekend for \$100 and they should give you your own floor
It’s all about making that GTA
unJon
• Posts: 4662
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
March 29th, 2022 at 5:01:30 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: billryan

Years ago I was told one of the easiest ways to get a comp room in AC was to be a regular \$25 Hard 8 bettor.

The any seven bet should get you there twice as fast. Bet that all weekend for \$100 and they should give you your own floor

Closer to 13.25 times as fast.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
March 29th, 2022 at 5:26:27 PM permalink
I just read on a different website an article about different betting strategies.

One of the strategies was using a 3 point Molly but with a progression on the flat bets for those first three rolls. The progression was a hedge -- no odds on the first three numbers.

Yes, the author commented on the risk, but he argued that after three or four throws the shooter was probably pretty good and worth the additional risk of adding odds.

This reminded me of the 5-count before betting on a shooter.
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
March 29th, 2022 at 5:30:16 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: billryan

Years ago I was told one of the easiest ways to get a comp room in AC was to be a regular \$25 Hard 8 bettor.

The any seven bet should get you there twice as fast. Bet that all weekend for \$100 and they should give you your own floor