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ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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March 26th, 2022 at 12:26:41 AM permalink
If the first 5 was a come-out for the PL then I added odds, the 2nd 5 would pay $20 ($10 odds on the 5 pays $15 + $5 PL = $20), and the Come bet would move to the 5. The 3rd roll, there'd be no odds but I'd win $5 on the Come and the PL point would be 5 again. On the 4th roll, I make a Come bet and win $20 for making the PL point. On the 5th roll, I win the $5 Come bet and the point is 5 and I put odds on the PL...
So that's $50 won.
If it was a $10 place bet, I'd win $14 two times, on rolls 2 & 4, and $5 two times on rolls 1 & 3 for the PL, total win of $38.
If it was a $15 place bet, I'd win $21 two times, on rolls 2 & 4, and since I never played the PL, total win of $42.
Oddly, the PL with odds & Come bet with odds combo wins out in this scenario.

But my strategy is more like PL isn't involved and I'm just hitting the PB's like an open target for 5 in a row because I made the Come point previously. $15 x 1.4 = $21 x 5 = $105 won.
If I had to start with a Come bet and replace it with a PB, it'd be $5 + $10 (x 1.5) = $20 won, rebet $15 to win $21 three more times, total win of $83.

A Come bet alone would be $5 + $10 (x 1.5) odds (+$20) won on roll 2, $5 + $10 (x 1.5) odds (+$20) won on roll 3, $5 + $10 (x 1.5) odds (+$20) won on roll 4,
$5 + $10 (x 1.5) odds (+$20) won on roll 5 = $80 won
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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March 26th, 2022 at 12:36:31 AM permalink
Your $5 flat wins $5 and its returned for a total of $10.

Your new come bet becomes the new flat bet.

Your original $10 odds remains unless you choose to take it down.

So, as an example.

Point of 4 is established on the first roll.
Second roll is a 5, so come bet travels to the 5. $10 odds added. Outlay is now $15.

Third roll is another 5.
The existing 5 is paid: the flat bet wins $5 and is returned. The $10 odds wins $15.

Dealer gives you 15 + 10 = 25

Meanwhile your new come bet travels to the 5 where you already have $10 odds.

If another 5 follows again you get 25 and the new come bet replaces the 5 flat bet that just got paid and returned to you.

That's the way it is with CONTINUOUS come betting.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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March 26th, 2022 at 12:59:56 AM permalink
The Color Up guy has a video about continuous Come bets and the first repeater I've come across he pays a $5 Come with $10 odds as $17 (on the six).
The $5 Come bet in the Come area stays where it is and so does the $5 flat bet with $10 odds in the point box. He did not return the flat bet or a Come bet, it was Off and On and the chips stayed where they were on the layout; he just paid the winnings.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 26th, 2022 at 3:33:16 AM permalink
I've seen some really smart guys overthink this

first thought: a 3 point molly is just a way of getting more action, without increasing HE, over just playing one pass line bet with odds. I have recent experience with the latter 'less action' way at the Cherokee craps table due to irritation with the table minimum. It's "ok if you are going to make the minimum high I will only have one pass line bet with odds in action" as a solution. I have to tell you it has its dissatisfying moments, one you really can feel if the table gets hot but somehow your number to be resolved just can't be rolled somehow and finally it's 7-out. Seemingly all the rightside players got rich and you were the lone rightside loser. It just doesn't seem to go the other way.

It is much better to get more in action, like with 3PM, and just play for a short while if you don't like the table minimum. Alas that 'short while' bit is very hard to pull off too. I want longer time at the table.

more thoughts in a while
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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March 26th, 2022 at 4:20:38 AM permalink
If I was gonna start with $20 bets on the line and on odds, and go for a 15 round buy-in, that'd be $120/round x 15 or an $1800 buy-in.
Divide by 10 if I'm betting $2 on Bubble Craps, $180.

Due to the odds limit being 3X the table max at the tables, if I'm betting at top level, I'll be limited to 3X odds. But I can still get from $10K to $110K with 9X Odds at a $6K odds max table.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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March 26th, 2022 at 5:44:55 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

The Color Up guy has a video about continuous Come bets and the first repeater I've come across he pays a $5 Come with $10 odds as $17 (on the six).
The $5 Come bet in the Come area stays where it is and so does the $5 flat bet with $10 odds in the point box. He did not return the flat bet or a Come bet, it was Off and On and the chips stayed where they were on the layout; he just paid the winnings.
link to original post



Right. He wasn't adding a new $5 come bet. So there wasn't a return of the original bet.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 26th, 2022 at 5:57:23 AM permalink
the matter of $1.41 in EV, or 14 cents, or whatever the flavor of the day is

at the end I'll even admit I have to be honest

It is true that the recently discussed EV of $1.41, once committed, cannot be reduced by adding free odds. Not even 100x free odds. But unless the table minimum is $100, you can still get that sized bet down by betting the table min. and adding the free odds up to reach that amount once a point has been set. Now you have reduced the $1.41. I don't see why this is hard to grasp. If you want to argue that this can still be delusional, the end of the argument is Total Action. If one guy's Total Action was in full against a 1.41% HE, but another guys T.A. is exactly the same but against less than 1% HE ... the math can't lie here. The latter is expected to lose less money.

This does mean that if higher and higher free odds are offered, a given player increases to higher and higher T.A., he may be delusional. So you do have to see to it that your T.A. has remained the same or that's you! So that is where I have to be honest, if the free odds are there I do tend to bet more ... ie, put more in action and have more T. A. So I at least can't be totally smug about this.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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March 26th, 2022 at 6:04:27 AM permalink
I think we all understand that figures such as 1.41% representing the house edge are all examples of long term math probabilities and have nothing to do with actual payoffs.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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March 26th, 2022 at 6:12:17 AM permalink
If you play for 720 come-out rolls, you may be down 10 bets because of the HE. When you go triple speed with a 3 Point Molly, that can add up quickly, so you'll want to get your variance from odds more.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Mar 26, 2022
mwalz9
mwalz9
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March 26th, 2022 at 7:11:00 AM permalink
I didn't read this entire thread, so if this has been addressed, I apologize.

I watched Color Up's 3-Point Molly video and I was bothered by the fact he called the 3 Point Molly the best mathematical strategy for craps.

It is not!

While small in difference, the Don't Pass bet with MAX odds is the best mathematical strategy in craps.

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