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odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 25th, 2022 at 9:45:48 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

If you are making bets that have a house edge, the less money you bet, the better off you will be.
As best I can tell, the three-point molly is a system of hedging your bets so your money may last longer, but you are still swimming upstream against the current.
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If there is any hedging I didn't understand what 3 point molly is.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ace2
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 9:50:46 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

If you are making bets that have a house edge, the less money you bet, the better off you will be.
As best I can tell, the three-point molly is a system of hedging your bets so your money may last longer, but you are still swimming upstream against the current.
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It's not a system or hedging. It's just making come bets until up to three point numbers are covered
It’s all about making that GTA
billryan
billryan
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March 25th, 2022 at 9:55:49 AM permalink
I consider it hedging, but it may not be the correct gambling term. If your number is 6, and you are betting on two other numbers, I look at those as a hedge that the 6 wouldn't win. If hedging isn't correct, what would you call it?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ace2
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 10:07:12 AM permalink
You can lose all three numbers so it's definitely not a hedge. A hedge would dilute the loss on the 6 if you lose it. Regardless, I abide by the "thou shalt not hedge thy bets" commandment. Variance is what makes gambling fun

3 point molly is just increasing your action by betting on one or two more numbers. Like placing one or two more numbers except that you don't get to choose which numbers and also the overall edge on come bets is MUCH lower than place bets, assuming you take the free odds
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson 
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March 25th, 2022 at 10:14:31 AM permalink
In a convoluted way each additional come bet becomes a hedge against a 7, because the come bet will be paid on the 7 while all the existing bets lose.

Again... it's a convoluted way to look at it.

I'll go with the majority, however. 3 point molly is only a name applied to a strategy of having three come bets with odds, and its not a hedging system.

Laying the 4 or ten while making come bets would be a hedge.
unJon
unJon
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March 25th, 2022 at 10:18:49 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

I consider it hedging, but it may not be the correct gambling term. If your number is 6, and you are betting on two other numbers, I look at those as a hedge that the 6 wouldn't win. If hedging isn't correct, what would you call it?
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It’s more levering up than hedging a bet. Or it’s an “independent” but correlated bet. Hedged bets would be anti-correlated. However you want to look at it. One mifht be 6 before 7 and another 4 before 7 and the third 9 before 7.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 10:25:58 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

In a convoluted way each additional come bet becomes a hedge against a 7, because the come bet will be paid on the 7 while all the existing bets lose.

Again... it's a convoluted way to look at it.

I'll go with the majority, however. 3 point molly is only a name applied to a strategy of having three come bets with odds, and its not a hedging system.

Laying the 4 or ten while making come bets would be a hedge.
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I was going to say that about the come bet, but: 1) once two come bets have travelled to their number and you have three total numbers covered, then you have no come bet. So it's only a hedge when one or two numbers are covered. 2) Even when a come bet is active, it's usually a very small amount relative to the total. For instance, let's say the point is 6, one come bet has travelled to 8 and one come bet is active (hasn't travelled). You have $100 plus $500 odds on both the 6 and 8 and $100 on come, then a 7 is rolled. You lose $1200 total on 6 and 8 and win $100 on the come bet. That $100 win doesn't dilute the $1200 loss much
Last edited by: Ace2 on Mar 25, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
TDVegas
TDVegas
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March 25th, 2022 at 12:02:08 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: AlanMendelson

A simple way to look at Molly: you have to hit her twice to get her to pay.

To be more exact a number must be rolled twice. It's hard enough rolling a good number even once.
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this is what you hear from people who do not like this way of betting. It's valid in that, of course it's hard to win this way... but ignores that the real problem is the house edge.

What is definitely not valid is the suggestion that the criticism is mathematically or logically correct. I hear that implied a lot [I'm not saying Alan implies it here necessarily]

What is good about it is "three". 3 points max to try to get. It probably is about the most $ you can try to put into action without just exposing your bankroll too much. If you try to do more you really have a lot of risk.
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Hit the number twice. I’ve heard this argument so many times against the 3 point Molly. Number 1, it ignores the fact that the house edge is better on this play than having to “hit the number once” by making place or buy bets. Number 2…if you roll a 7 or 11 once, the pass line or come bet wins.

3 point Molly is a solid low house edge bet. That said, there is no right or wrong. Craps is recreation, bet as you like. If you like to play the game as close as possible to net even…stick to low house edge betting. If you want more volatility and “excitement”, if you will…take some chances on hard ways or other high house edge bets.
Ace2
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 12:23:26 PM permalink
Correct. To win a passline bet you must "hit a number twice", excluding resolutions made during come-out. As a comparison, the vig on placing the 5 (must hit the number only once) is 4%, over ten times the vig on a passline bet with full odds. It's almost like comparing a zero-edge game to double-zero roulette. In the former, the edge is so low that you're essentially just playing against/with variance, and in the latter you're basically a guaranteed loser even in the short term
It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
Ace2
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March 25th, 2022 at 12:33:50 PM permalink
Occasionally I'll do a 3-point-molly with Don't Pass / DC. You can lose for a long time if the shooter has a long roll, but the good part is that you win everything when he sevens out. Ideally, the shooter establishes all the points but wins none

I think the main benefit of the 3PM is that it speeds up the game. Betting the pass line you average 30 bets resolved per hour, which can be a bit slow. With a 3PM you average 72 bets resolved per hour

One of the great things about craps is the variety of bets and betting styles. You can tailor it to almost any speed/variance you like. When I'm not doing 3PM, I'll just do a PL/DP bet but for double the $ amount. So less frequent resolutions but for higher amounts, about the same variance, slightly less house edge
Last edited by: Ace2 on Mar 25, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA

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