ChumpChange
• Posts: 4997
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
March 26th, 2022 at 12:26:41 AM permalink
If the first 5 was a come-out for the PL then I added odds, the 2nd 5 would pay \$20 (\$10 odds on the 5 pays \$15 + \$5 PL = \$20), and the Come bet would move to the 5. The 3rd roll, there'd be no odds but I'd win \$5 on the Come and the PL point would be 5 again. On the 4th roll, I make a Come bet and win \$20 for making the PL point. On the 5th roll, I win the \$5 Come bet and the point is 5 and I put odds on the PL...
So that's \$50 won.
If it was a \$10 place bet, I'd win \$14 two times, on rolls 2 & 4, and \$5 two times on rolls 1 & 3 for the PL, total win of \$38.
If it was a \$15 place bet, I'd win \$21 two times, on rolls 2 & 4, and since I never played the PL, total win of \$42.
Oddly, the PL with odds & Come bet with odds combo wins out in this scenario.

But my strategy is more like PL isn't involved and I'm just hitting the PB's like an open target for 5 in a row because I made the Come point previously. \$15 x 1.4 = \$21 x 5 = \$105 won.
If I had to start with a Come bet and replace it with a PB, it'd be \$5 + \$10 (x 1.5) = \$20 won, rebet \$15 to win \$21 three more times, total win of \$83.

A Come bet alone would be \$5 + \$10 (x 1.5) odds (+\$20) won on roll 2, \$5 + \$10 (x 1.5) odds (+\$20) won on roll 3, \$5 + \$10 (x 1.5) odds (+\$20) won on roll 4,
\$5 + \$10 (x 1.5) odds (+\$20) won on roll 5 = \$80 won
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
March 26th, 2022 at 12:36:31 AM permalink
Your \$5 flat wins \$5 and its returned for a total of \$10.

Your new come bet becomes the new flat bet.

Your original \$10 odds remains unless you choose to take it down.

So, as an example.

Point of 4 is established on the first roll.
Second roll is a 5, so come bet travels to the 5. \$10 odds added. Outlay is now \$15.

Third roll is another 5.
The existing 5 is paid: the flat bet wins \$5 and is returned. The \$10 odds wins \$15.

Dealer gives you 15 + 10 = 25

Meanwhile your new come bet travels to the 5 where you already have \$10 odds.

If another 5 follows again you get 25 and the new come bet replaces the 5 flat bet that just got paid and returned to you.

That's the way it is with CONTINUOUS come betting.
ChumpChange
• Posts: 4997
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
March 26th, 2022 at 12:59:56 AM permalink
The Color Up guy has a video about continuous Come bets and the first repeater I've come across he pays a \$5 Come with \$10 odds as \$17 (on the six).
The \$5 Come bet in the Come area stays where it is and so does the \$5 flat bet with \$10 odds in the point box. He did not return the flat bet or a Come bet, it was Off and On and the chips stayed where they were on the layout; he just paid the winnings.
odiousgambit
• Posts: 9654
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
March 26th, 2022 at 3:33:16 AM permalink
I've seen some really smart guys overthink this

first thought: a 3 point molly is just a way of getting more action, without increasing HE, over just playing one pass line bet with odds. I have recent experience with the latter 'less action' way at the Cherokee craps table due to irritation with the table minimum. It's "ok if you are going to make the minimum high I will only have one pass line bet with odds in action" as a solution. I have to tell you it has its dissatisfying moments, one you really can feel if the table gets hot but somehow your number to be resolved just can't be rolled somehow and finally it's 7-out. Seemingly all the rightside players got rich and you were the lone rightside loser. It just doesn't seem to go the other way.

It is much better to get more in action, like with 3PM, and just play for a short while if you don't like the table minimum. Alas that 'short while' bit is very hard to pull off too. I want longer time at the table.

more thoughts in a while
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ChumpChange
• Posts: 4997
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
March 26th, 2022 at 4:20:38 AM permalink
If I was gonna start with \$20 bets on the line and on odds, and go for a 15 round buy-in, that'd be \$120/round x 15 or an \$1800 buy-in.
Divide by 10 if I'm betting \$2 on Bubble Craps, \$180.

Due to the odds limit being 3X the table max at the tables, if I'm betting at top level, I'll be limited to 3X odds. But I can still get from \$10K to \$110K with 9X Odds at a \$6K odds max table.
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
March 26th, 2022 at 5:44:55 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

The Color Up guy has a video about continuous Come bets and the first repeater I've come across he pays a \$5 Come with \$10 odds as \$17 (on the six).
The \$5 Come bet in the Come area stays where it is and so does the \$5 flat bet with \$10 odds in the point box. He did not return the flat bet or a Come bet, it was Off and On and the chips stayed where they were on the layout; he just paid the winnings.

Right. He wasn't adding a new \$5 come bet. So there wasn't a return of the original bet.
odiousgambit
• Posts: 9654
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
March 26th, 2022 at 5:57:23 AM permalink
the matter of \$1.41 in EV, or 14 cents, or whatever the flavor of the day is

at the end I'll even admit I have to be honest

It is true that the recently discussed EV of \$1.41, once committed, cannot be reduced by adding free odds. Not even 100x free odds. But unless the table minimum is \$100, you can still get that sized bet down by betting the table min. and adding the free odds up to reach that amount once a point has been set. Now you have reduced the \$1.41. I don't see why this is hard to grasp. If you want to argue that this can still be delusional, the end of the argument is Total Action. If one guy's Total Action was in full against a 1.41% HE, but another guys T.A. is exactly the same but against less than 1% HE ... the math can't lie here. The latter is expected to lose less money.

This does mean that if higher and higher free odds are offered, a given player increases to higher and higher T.A., he may be delusional. So you do have to see to it that your T.A. has remained the same or that's you! So that is where I have to be honest, if the free odds are there I do tend to bet more ... ie, put more in action and have more T. A. So I at least can't be totally smug about this.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
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March 26th, 2022 at 6:04:27 AM permalink
I think we all understand that figures such as 1.41% representing the house edge are all examples of long term math probabilities and have nothing to do with actual payoffs.
ChumpChange
• Posts: 4997
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
March 26th, 2022 at 6:12:17 AM permalink
If you play for 720 come-out rolls, you may be down 10 bets because of the HE. When you go triple speed with a 3 Point Molly, that can add up quickly, so you'll want to get your variance from odds more.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Mar 26, 2022
mwalz9
• Posts: 754
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
March 26th, 2022 at 7:11:00 AM permalink

I watched Color Up's 3-Point Molly video and I was bothered by the fact he called the 3 Point Molly the best mathematical strategy for craps.

It is not!

While small in difference, the Don't Pass bet with MAX odds is the best mathematical strategy in craps.
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 26th, 2022 at 8:38:45 AM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

Commit more to the pass line than the odds.

Commit more to the 1.41% edge bet than to the zero edge bet. Scratching my head on this one, please elaborate
It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
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March 26th, 2022 at 8:45:18 AM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

Quote: ChumpChange

I threw five 5's in a row on bubble craps the other night. If I was Come betting, I'd only get 2 winners out of that; as a place bettor, if I had placed it, would have been 5 winners. If I had won the Come bet and replaced it with a Place bet, I'd have 4 winners.
FYI, Buy bets on the 5, 9 pay 1.45X instead of 1.40X as a Place bet.

I’ve played bubble craps for about 10 years now. Anyone can lay out a scenario they’ve “thrown” to justify strategy A (place) or strategy B (come bet)…and make an argument which was the better plan. For some reason…the argument is always after the fact.

Place bet edge: 4%

Come bet with 3/4/5 odds edge: 0.37% (less than a tenth of place bet edge)

Is that a good enough argument?
It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
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March 26th, 2022 at 9:09:18 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I think we all understand that figures such as 1.41% representing the house edge are all examples of long term math probabilities and have nothing to do with actual payoffs.

Wrong. If you are making pass line bets only, over the long term your loss will be:

(bets won x payoff - bets lost) / (total bets made) = 7/495 = 1.41%

Taking this "4th grade arithmetic"* one step further, the standard deviation will be about: 1 / (total bets made)^.5

*quoting my mentor and teacher here - tuttigym
It’s all about making that GTA
billryan
• Posts: 16282
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March 26th, 2022 at 9:14:17 AM permalink
My amp goes to 11. Yours only goes to 10. Which is louder?

If the casino is offering a bet at true odds, it means that the house does not expect to make money on it. If you wager \$10, the house expects to make zero off of you. If you bet a million dollars, it makes nothing off of you.
Conversely, you can expect to make zero profit, no matter if you bet \$10 or a million. At the end of the day, you can expect zero profit. It's like you are depositing money into an ATM and withdrawing it at the same time.
Why does a casino offer such a silly bet when it knows it won't make money off of it? The simple answer is they wouldn't unless they have an ulterior motive. So what is their motive?
Since they won't let you simply take odds, as there is no profit in it for them, why do they offer it?
I'd guess they offer this as an inducement to make that silly pass bet with its 1.41 house edge. Some marketing genius figured out a way to get reasonably intelligent people to play a game with a 1.41 house edge while convincing themselves they are really playing a game with a 0.37 edge.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
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March 26th, 2022 at 10:05:49 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I threw five 5's in a row on bubble craps the other night. If I was Come betting, I'd only get 2 winners out of that; as a place bettor, if I had placed it, would have been 5 winners. If I had won the Come bet and replaced it with a Place bet, I'd have 4 winners.
FYI, Buy bets on the 5, 9 pay 1.45X instead of 1.40X as a Place bet.

And if, starting from a comeout roll, the rolls had been 7, 7, 11, 7, 7, (153% more likely than 5,5,5,5,5) a passline/come bet would have won five times while a place bet wins nothing. Anything can happen in the short term, but long term the place bet is a very bad, very high edge bet

Regarding the buy vs place: If you buy it, putting \$105 on the table, you have a 60% chance of a \$105 loss and 40% chance of a \$145 net win. If you place it for \$105 you also have a 60% chance of a \$105 loss but a 40% chance of a \$147 net win. They are both sucker bets with 4% + edges that I'd never make, but isn't placing it the better of the two dreadful options?
It’s all about making that GTA
DeMango
• Posts: 2958
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March 26th, 2022 at 10:10:12 AM permalink
And if you buy, vig on win, it only takes \$100 to get that \$145!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
unJon
• Posts: 4662
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
March 26th, 2022 at 12:37:07 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

Quote: Ace2

Quote: TDVegas

I believe the argument is flawed that you would only expect to lose .37 per \$100 wagered (\$25 pass, \$75 odds) vs. a lone \$25 pass. You will expect to lose the same exact amount…\$1.41.

It's a fact, not an argument. In the \$25/\$75 scenario, for every \$100 you put on the table, the casino holds .37 long term. Are you claiming that 0.37/25 = 0.37/100 ?

Don't compare \$25 pass with \$75 odds to a lone \$25 pass. Compare it to a lone \$100 pass. The vig is 4 times higher on the \$100 lone pass since it's being charged on the full \$100 instead of just \$25

My argument is \$100 pass line is expected to lose 1.41.

My argument is \$100 pass line and \$300 odds is expected to lose 1.41.

The only thing the odds bet does in terms of expectation is it ramps up the volatility. You can win OR lose a lot more money depending on how the dice go. It does not change the overall expected loss.

If your argument is make the minimum pass line with the maximum odds…I agree, somewhat. A lot of people like the advantage on come out (8 ways to win, 4 ways to lose)…a 2 to 1 win/loss advantage and the only time a player has an edge, so they commit more on the pass line.

It’s semantics. Imagine video poker game where if you insert 3 quarters you get a 98% pay table. The fourth quarter has for itself a 100% pay table, so when you put in four quarters the overall pay table is 98.5%.

Would you say:

a) You are making two different bets. A 98% game for three quarters and a 100% game for one quarter.

b) You are playing a 98.5% game for four quarters.

c) It doesn’t matter because it’s semantics.

My guess is however you answer, if you saw someone playing the game for three quarters, you would think they were playing poorly.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
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Thanked by
March 26th, 2022 at 1:10:51 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

My amp goes to 11. Yours only goes to 10. Which is louder?

If the casino is offering a bet at true odds, it means that the house does not expect to make money on it. If you wager \$10, the house expects to make zero off of you. If you bet a million dollars, it makes nothing off of you.
Conversely, you can expect to make zero profit, no matter if you bet \$10 or a million. At the end of the day, you can expect zero profit. It's like you are depositing money into an ATM and withdrawing it at the same time.
Why does a casino offer such a silly bet when it knows it won't make money off of it? The simple answer is they wouldn't unless they have an ulterior motive. So what is their motive?
Since they won't let you simply take odds, as there is no profit in it for them, why do they offer it?
I'd guess they offer this as an inducement to make that silly pass bet with its 1.41 house edge. Some marketing genius figured out a way to get reasonably intelligent people to play a game with a 1.41 house edge while convincing themselves they are really playing a game with a 0.37 edge.

Let me get this straight. If, for instance, a casino offered roulette with no zeros and normal payoffs, that would be a silly game that no one should play since it has no house edge and is essentially just taking money from one pocket and putting into another? Some predatory marketing gimmick perhaps?

Based on your "withdraw/deposit ATM at same time" comment, it's clear that you do not understand variance and that you still have (almost the same) variance on a free bet compared to the same bet with vig. You think that if you bet on 100 coin flips, wins paying even money (zero vig), that you are guaranteed to win exactly 50 of 100 for a net result of zero? Or... do you deny that such a bet would be zero vig?

Switching to craps, I wouldn't be surprised if casinos eliminated or reduced free odds bets because it's such a great deal for players. You get a PL bet (after point established) with zero vig and even a bit more variance (on a point of 5, SD of 1.22 vs 1 for for a PL bet). I say that based on casinos raising vig by changing BJ to 6:5 and even introducing triple-zero roulette. If every craps player bet only PL with max odds then the game would cease existence because the vig would not cover the cost to deal the game, just like BJ would no longer exist if everyone played proper basic strategy (house edge about 0.5% for 3:2 +/- 0.1% for rule variations). But, in craps, all the people making high vig place bets (especially), hardways etc subsidize the sharps playing PL/Come/DP/DC with max odds, just like the bad blackjack players subsidize the ones playing proper basic strategy. As a sharp, I think it's a fantastic arrangement

Once you get a vig under half a percent, it's almost like it's a free bet because you must make millions of bets before being confident of net results being close to that vig %. So you could play 100,000 hands and still have a decent chance of being up on the casino.
Last edited by: Ace2 on Mar 26, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
teddys
• Posts: 5529
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March 26th, 2022 at 1:44:11 PM permalink
Read all of Ace2's posts and listen to him :)

I find it amazing that across with pressure is the accepted strategy for craps, while being one of the WORST strategies out there.

Bet odds. Even if it's 1x. Bet them. Always.

I just finished reading Lyle Stuart's Casino Gambling for the Winner from 1977, and he talks about how some houses were offering 2x odds instead of just 1x odds. That should tell you what a deal it is for the player. On of the few things in Vegas that have gotten better for the player.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
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March 26th, 2022 at 1:54:46 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: AlanMendelson

I think we all understand that figures such as 1.41% representing the house edge are all examples of long term math probabilities and have nothing to do with actual payoffs.

Wrong. If you are making pass line bets only, over the long term your loss will be:

(bets won x payoff - bets lost) / (total bets made) = 7/495 = 1.41%

Taking this "4th grade arithmetic"* one step further, the standard deviation will be about: 1 / (total bets made)^.5

*quoting my mentor and teacher here - tuttigym

When I make a \$15 passline bet I either win \$15 or I lose \$15.

I never lose 1.4%

Yet I understand why the house has a 1.4% edge.
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 26th, 2022 at 2:11:48 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

Read all of Ace2's posts and listen to him :)

They aren't going to listen to anyone. You will never change the mind of a Believer

But sometimes I can't help correcting basic math errors
Last edited by: Ace2 on Mar 26, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
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March 26th, 2022 at 2:35:30 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: teddys

Read all of Ace2's posts and listen to him :)

They aren't going to listen to anyone. You will never change the mind of a Believer

But I can't help correcting basic math errors

Part of the problem with understanding math is the way it's written in English... especially when you can't discuss it in real time.

We sometimes misinterpret words or have diction issues, using one word or several words incorrectly.

Think back to when you were in school. Remember teachers explaining things at the blackboard? (They were blackboards in my school-- not greenboards and certainly not whiteboards.)

It's easy to have misunderstandings because different words can mean different things to different people.
billryan
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March 26th, 2022 at 3:14:16 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

Read all of Ace2's posts and listen to him :)

I find it amazing that across with pressure is the accepted strategy for craps, while being one of the WORST strategies out there.

Bet odds. Even if it's 1x. Bet them. Always.

I just finished reading Lyle Stuart's Casino Gambling for the Winner from 1977, and he talks about how some houses were offering 2x odds instead of just 1x odds. That should tell you what a deal it is for the player. On of the few things in Vegas that have gotten better for the player.

That is kind of my point. When a casino or any predatory business offers you something for free, Beware. Take Care.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ace2
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March 26th, 2022 at 3:26:20 PM permalink
Here's an excerpt from a quarterly earnings call with investors for Wynn Resorts. They reduced odds from 3/4/5 to 2x because "craps is not a really profitable game at that level." And they list the 0.374% edge for 3/4/5. Apparently that silly marketing gimmick was costing them too much money

Not like anything was actually up for debate...but case closed!

https://www.covers.com/vegas/changes-at-the-wynn-could-have-an-impact-across-las-vegas-casinos

During last week's quarterly earnings call with investors for Wynn Resorts gaming took up a few minutes of Steve Wynn's time. It's rare for a casino company to discuss gaming specifics on these calls but as bad as the information is for gamblers it's almost - almost - refreshing to hear such honesty. Steve Wynn discussed why Wynn Las Vegas recently reduced their craps odds from 3x-4x-5x to 2x.

“With three dealers and a box-man, and half of a floor man for every table - craps is not a really profitable game at that level.

So I changed the casino. In effect I raised the price. And I went to double odds only. Except for extremely high play with a thousand dollar minimum bet.“

The house edge with a 2x odds wager on the passline is 0.606%. The house edge on a 3x-4x-5x odds wager on the passline that you'll find at most casinos on the Vegas Strip is 0.374%. This is good for investors who may be upset that massive revenue from Macau continues to decrease (14 months straight now) but this is bad for gamblers.
It’s all about making that GTA
billryan
• Posts: 16282
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March 26th, 2022 at 3:31:45 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: teddys

Read all of Ace2's posts and listen to him :)

They aren't going to listen to anyone. You will never change the mind of a Believer

But sometimes I can't help correcting basic math errors

I'm a believer in playing a game where I have an advantage. Craps is not such a game. It doesn't matter if you bet \$100 at a 1.41 disadvantage or \$300 at a 0.37 disadvantage. I believe you when you say betting bigger lets you stay close longer. You seem to be looking for ways to lose slower or lose less. I discovered that secret years ago. I'm looking to win more, with less risk.
I'm assuming the casino doesn't give any comp consideration for your odds bets, whereas you get a few pennies in comps for the pass bet.
By the way- I understand variance. I just don't bother with it. Short-term results are not as important to me as long-term ones.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
March 26th, 2022 at 3:34:40 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Here's an excerpt from a quarterly earnings call with investors for Wynn Resorts. They reduced odds from 3/4/5 because it wasn't profitable enough. And they list the 0.374% edge for 3/4/5. Apparently that silly marketing gimmick was costing them too much money

Not like anything was actually up for debate...but case closed!

https://www.covers.com/vegas/changes-at-the-wynn-could-have-an-impact-across-las-vegas-casinos

During last week's quarterly earnings call with investors for Wynn Resorts gaming took up a few minutes of Steve Wynn's time. It's rare for a casino company to discuss gaming specifics on these calls but as bad as the information is for gamblers it's almost - almost - refreshing to hear such honesty. Steve Wynn discussed why Wynn Las Vegas recently reduced their craps odds from 3x-4x-5x to 2x.

“With three dealers and a box-man, and half of a floor man for every table - craps is not a really profitable game at that level.

So I changed the casino. In effect I raised the price. And I went to double odds only. Except for extremely high play with a thousand dollar minimum bet.“

The house edge with a 2x odds wager on the passline is 0.606%. The house edge on a 3x-4x-5x odds wager on the passline that you'll find at most casinos on the Vegas Strip is 0.374%. This is good for investors who may be upset that massive revenue from Macau continues to decrease (14 months straight now) but this is bad for gamblers.

What you say about the odds in craps is true. But in reality few players bet more than 2x odds.
Ace2
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March 26th, 2022 at 3:49:10 PM permalink
Incidentally, the odds are actually "full double" 2/2/2.5 at Wynn if I recall correctly. I think they do that so odds on the 6/8 are more sensible numbers, like \$250 pays \$300 instead of \$200 pays \$240. Vice versa for don't pass odds. You never have to use chips <\$25, and I doubt there's a <\$25 table there

That call is from 7 years ago and I'm not that surprised that other casinos haven't followed. Eyeballing the average craps table, it seems the majority of bets are on place bets and, like Alan says, most people adding odds aren't betting more than 2x anyway. I think the Wynn's reduction to 2x just makes them look stingy more than anything else. Might even cost them some business (like mine)

Nice property but I haven't been there in years. It's too far north for me, I like to be more central strip
It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
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March 26th, 2022 at 4:23:08 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

It doesn't matter if you bet \$100 at a 1.41 disadvantage or \$300 at a 0.37 disadvantage.

Again, if you are \$100 bettor then you obviously don't bet \$300. You'd make a \$25 passline bet plus 3/4/5 odds, which keeps your total average wager close to \$100 (\$94.44 actually) but allocates the majority of the wager to the free odds portion, reducing the overall edge from 1.41 to 0.37.

You are not increasing your wager, you are just reallocating most it to a much more favorable vig. This is a fundamental/basic point...and you are still unable to grasp it
Last edited by: Ace2 on Mar 26, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
• Posts: 4997
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
March 26th, 2022 at 4:23:58 PM permalink
With \$360 I could get 15 rounds of \$6 bets with single odds using a 2 Point Molly, or \$4 bets with single odds using a 3 Point Molly.
I'll have to figure out what to do when I get there. I may be sold on either one after today, idk.
TDVegas
• Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
March 26th, 2022 at 5:28:43 PM permalink
If you are at a \$15 table…whether you make a \$15 pass line with no odds or a \$15 pass line bet with \$45 on odds…you are still expected to lose the same amount of money long term. For every \$100 in pass line wagers..you are expected to lose \$1.41.

The odds bet is subjected to volatility. If things aren’t going well, you are going to lose more money faster than the guy making a pass line bet with no odds. Some people value table time and their bankroll may not afford much time at \$15 and \$45 odds….if the table bends cold.
billryan
• Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
March 26th, 2022 at 6:01:47 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: billryan

It doesn't matter if you bet \$100 at a 1.41 disadvantage or \$300 at a 0.37 disadvantage.

Again, if you are \$100 bettor then you obviously don't bet \$300. You'd make a \$25 passline bet plus 3/4/5 odds, which keeps your total average wager close to \$100 (\$94.44 actually) but allocates the majority of the wager to the free odds portion, reducing the overall edge from 1.41 to 0.37.

You are not increasing your wager, you are just reallocating most it to a much more favorable vig. This is a fundamental/basic point...and you are still unable grasp it

I get it.
You know that a bet with a 1.41 house edge is a bad bet. Bad enough you don't want to play it, so the casino offers you a chance to bet more money on a bet with no edge.You are so thrilled with being able to bet \$300 on a bet the house has no edge on that you don't mind the paltry \$1.41 you will lose on your other bet.
Would you bet the pass line if no odds were allowed? Or is a 1.41 house advantage too much for you?

Edit: it doesn't matter if you are betting \$25, \$100, or 1000K. For every \$100 you bet on the pass line you will lose \$1.41 and for every bazillion dollars you take on the odds you will lose nothing. Does the three point molly change that?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
ChumpChange
• Posts: 4997
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
March 26th, 2022 at 6:07:04 PM permalink
Black Jack has a low HA on the order of 3X Odds, so that's an incentive. Kind of puts Baccarat to shame. An utter lack of "HOT SHOOTERS" is what makes comebacks harder.
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
March 26th, 2022 at 6:25:23 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

If you are at a \$15 table…whether you make a \$15 pass line with no odds or a \$15 pass line bet with \$45 on odds…you are still expected to lose the same amount of money long term. For every \$100 in pass line wagers..you are expected to lose \$1.41.

It amazes me the casinos can keep their lights on.
billryan
• Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
March 26th, 2022 at 6:25:51 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Black Jack has a low HA on the order of 3X Odds, so that's an incentive. Kind of puts Baccarat to shame.

The difference is the HA in BJ changes and a player can alter his bet to circumstances. When circumstances get negative, the BJ player can take a smoke break or hit the restroom or simply lower their bet. When they are positive, the player can take advantage.
Is there anything similar in craps?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
ChumpChange
• Posts: 4997
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
March 26th, 2022 at 6:31:58 PM permalink
Think of Odds bets like a double down bet (or more X Odds) that have no HA. In BJ, double down bets typically have some player advantage to them, but never a negative advantage.
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
March 26th, 2022 at 6:47:44 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: ChumpChange

Black Jack has a low HA on the order of 3X Odds, so that's an incentive. Kind of puts Baccarat to shame.

The difference is the HA in BJ changes and a player can alter his bet to circumstances. When circumstances get negative, the BJ player can take a smoke break or hit the restroom or simply lower their bet. When they are positive, the player can take advantage.
Is there anything similar in craps?

Absolutely not. Which is why craps is a negative expectation game and no betting scheme or system or plan will overcome the house advantage on every bet.

Even the don't players have a disadvantage.

Even the zero house edge odds are at a disadvantage because they are linked to the fate of the flat bet.

The only way to gain an advantage at craps is so rare and misunderstood no one would believe it's possible.

All talk about three point Molly's and come bets and dark side bets and hedging and pressing is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
ChumpChange
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Joined: Jun 15, 2018
March 26th, 2022 at 6:57:48 PM permalink
I've been playing WinCraps and I've hardly focused on the 3 Point Molly since I first started with unbelievable beginners luck followed by even more unbelievable bad luck. I thought I'd focus more on pressing PL bets and PB bets. But WinCraps seems to always turn on me with the most horrible luck after giving me beginner's luck for most any strategy/system. So I have just been too far away from thinking about Come bets much for a long time, except the example I gave at the beginning of this thread, which I was working on last December. I think I made solid progress on my 3 Point Molly strategies today.
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 26th, 2022 at 7:59:15 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I get it.
You know that a bet with a 1.41 house edge is a bad bet. Bad enough you don't want to play it, so the casino offers you a chance to bet more money on a bet with no edge.You are so thrilled with being able to bet \$300 on a bet the house has no edge on that you don't mind the paltry \$1.41 you will lose on your other bet.
Would you bet the pass line if no odds were allowed? Or is a 1.41 house advantage too much for you?

Edit: it doesn't matter if you are betting \$25, \$100, or 1000K. For every \$100 you bet on the pass line you will lose \$1.41 and for every bazillion dollars you take on the odds you will lose nothing. Does the three point molly change that?

No, you don't get it. Don't look at it as "a chance to bet more money on a bet with no edge". Sure, can bet more money if you want, but most people are already betting at their comfort/budget level. So you take advantage of the free odds bet by betting about the same total amount per decision, but with much less on the pass line (1.41%) and much more on free odds.

1.41% is still one of the better bets in the casino. Better than most single zero roulette, far better than double zero, better than 6:5 blackjack, and almost as low as some baccarat. But why pay 1.41% when you can pay 0.37% (even less on the don't side). 1.41% can still grind you down, but less than 0.5% is almost like it's free...on a low stakes table you can make a 0.5% game positive EV just with free drinks.

I probably wouldn't play without odds because 1.41% is above my limit and also because, IMO, the odds bets are one of the most fun parts of the game. I always add max odds and I like the different amounts and payout ratios...spices up the game just like splits and doubles add variety to blackjack. The odds bets also increase variance, and variance is what gambling is all about

There is nothing special or complicated about a 3 point molly, it's just (up to) 3 concurrent passline bets.

"Edit: it doesn't matter if you are betting \$25, \$100, or 1000K. For every \$100 you bet on the pass line you will lose \$1.41 and for every bazillion dollars you take on the odds you will lose nothing." You still don't get it. Yes it's true the passline vig is 1.41% and zero on odds. We are talking about playing close to the same game with about the same amount of \$bets, just with more on odds and less on passline
It’s all about making that GTA
TDVegas
• Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
March 26th, 2022 at 8:07:25 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: TDVegas

If you are at a \$15 table…whether you make a \$15 pass line with no odds or a \$15 pass line bet with \$45 on odds…you are still expected to lose the same amount of money long term. For every \$100 in pass line wagers..you are expected to lose \$1.41.

It amazes me the casinos can keep their lights on.

Cue in fire bets at 25% house edge, hard ways at 9-11%, horn at 12.5%, among a bunch of others and you are looking at slot machine returns.
unJon
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Joined: Jul 1, 2018
Thanked by
March 26th, 2022 at 8:08:02 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

If you are at a \$15 table…whether you make a \$15 pass line with no odds or a \$15 pass line bet with \$45 on odds…you are still expected to lose the same amount of money long term. For every \$100 in pass line wagers..you are expected to lose \$1.41.

The odds bet is subjected to volatility. If things aren’t going well, you are going to lose more money faster than the guy making a pass line bet with no odds. Some people value table time and their bankroll may not afford much time at \$15 and \$45 odds….if the table bends cold.

Wrong analysis. As Ace2 keeps saying. Move to the \$5 table and bet \$10 odds. And you are doing better than being at the \$15 table with no odds.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 26th, 2022 at 8:13:50 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

Cue in fire bets at 25% house edge, hard ways at 9-11%, horn at 12.5%, among a bunch of others and you are looking at slot machine returns.

Exactly. Those and place bets are what makes money for the casino. If everyone played PL with max odds, the casino would lose money. Just ask Steve Wynn

People make hardway bets all the time
It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 26th, 2022 at 8:20:41 PM permalink
Quote: DeMango

And if you buy, vig on win, it only takes \$100 to get that \$145!

I don't make buy bets, but to my knowledge the vig-on-win-only is just for the 4 and 10
It’s all about making that GTA
unJon
• Posts: 4662
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
March 26th, 2022 at 8:22:59 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: DeMango

And if you buy, vig on win, it only takes \$100 to get that \$145!

I don't make buy bets, but to my knowledge the vig-on-win-only is just for the 4 and 10

You should try crapless craps. Buy the 12 or 2 with vig on win. Fun way to get variance with a low house edge.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AlanMendelson
• Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
March 26th, 2022 at 8:24:48 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: DeMango

And if you buy, vig on win, it only takes \$100 to get that \$145!

I don't make buy bets, but to my knowledge the vig-on-win-only is just for the 4 and 10

I dont know of any Vegas casinos offering Buys on the 5 or 9. If there are, what are their rules?

I like Stations and Boyd for giving automatic Buys on the 4 and 10 even on \$5 bets and the vig is paid on the win.

If there are Buys on the 5 and 9 what's the minimum bet?
ChumpChange
• Posts: 4997
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
March 26th, 2022 at 8:31:55 PM permalink
Well, \$20 on the 5 would pay \$30 minus a \$1 vig on vig-on-a-win for a total of \$29, instead of \$28 as a place bet. Seems casinos can't be bothered.
Bubble craps machines have vig-on-a-win, so I always buy the 5, 9 there instead of PB.
unJon
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March 26th, 2022 at 8:33:52 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Ace2

Quote: DeMango

And if you buy, vig on win, it only takes \$100 to get that \$145!

I don't make buy bets, but to my knowledge the vig-on-win-only is just for the 4 and 10

I dont know of any Vegas casinos offering Buys on the 5 or 9. If there are, what are their rules?

I like Stations and Boyd for giving automatic Buys on the 4 and 10 even on \$5 bets and the vig is paid on the win.

If there are Buys on the 5 and 9 what's the minimum bet?

Pittsburgh casinos let you buy the 5 and 9 with vig on win starting at \$25 min. I believe DeMango said Biloxi casinos are similar.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
TDVegas
• Posts: 1186
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
March 26th, 2022 at 8:59:58 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: TDVegas

If you are at a \$15 table…whether you make a \$15 pass line with no odds or a \$15 pass line bet with \$45 on odds…you are still expected to lose the same amount of money long term. For every \$100 in pass line wagers..you are expected to lose \$1.41.

The odds bet is subjected to volatility. If things aren’t going well, you are going to lose more money faster than the guy making a pass line bet with no odds. Some people value table time and their bankroll may not afford much time at \$15 and \$45 odds….if the table bends cold.

Wrong analysis. As Ace2 keeps saying. Move to the \$5 table and bet \$10 odds. And you are doing better than being at the \$15 table with no odds.

What \$5 table? There might be one left at the Downtown Grand. Good luck even getting on it.
unJon
• Posts: 4662
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
March 26th, 2022 at 9:04:22 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

Quote: unJon

Quote: TDVegas

If you are at a \$15 table…whether you make a \$15 pass line with no odds or a \$15 pass line bet with \$45 on odds…you are still expected to lose the same amount of money long term. For every \$100 in pass line wagers..you are expected to lose \$1.41.

The odds bet is subjected to volatility. If things aren’t going well, you are going to lose more money faster than the guy making a pass line bet with no odds. Some people value table time and their bankroll may not afford much time at \$15 and \$45 odds….if the table bends cold.

Wrong analysis. As Ace2 keeps saying. Move to the \$5 table and bet \$10 odds. And you are doing better than being at the \$15 table with no odds.

What \$5 table? There might be one left at the Downtown Grand. Good luck even getting on it.

Again not the point. Is there a corner case with someone betting solely passline with no odds and no other bets? Maybe. But I have yet to see that unicorn. If they are betting more than table min, or if they are betting any other bets (come bets, place bets, inside bets), then they are better served reducing the other bets until they have full odds.

It’s not a hard concept.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
March 26th, 2022 at 9:57:40 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Ace2

Quote: DeMango

And if you buy, vig on win, it only takes \$100 to get that \$145!

I don't make buy bets, but to my knowledge the vig-on-win-only is just for the 4 and 10

I dont know of any Vegas casinos offering Buys on the 5 or 9. If there are, what are their rules?

I like Stations and Boyd for giving automatic Buys on the 4 and 10 even on \$5 bets and the vig is paid on the win.

If there are Buys on the 5 and 9 what's the minimum bet?