onebok
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June 29th, 2021 at 11:26:41 AM permalink
When minimum bet requirements are higher, the HA is not as pertinent to the craps bettor as the "reality" of the game. That is because
the laws of larger numbers and statistical validity that generate HA are not as relevant to someone at a $25 table who loses his $300
buyin in, let's say, 10 rolls of the dice playing PL and single odds. What is relevant is that they are smart enough to know enough about
relative HA on types of bets so they bet smaller amounts or may avoid those bets with a higher house edge.

There is always someone who jumps into a $25 table and throws a green or black chip on a horn or some other Hail-Mary bet. They are
either desperate or just don't know or care about the relative HA of various craps bets.

Hedging on a PL/DP bet is common when funds are low because it prevents a large percentage of buyin-loss by a string of just a few
comeout rolls.
Hedging a 6 and 8 for $30 with a $51 lay-10 bet is great on a choppy table when it works, but can wipe out $111 (over a fifth) of an
inadequate $500 buyin on just two rolls (10 followed by 7). But it may work really well sometimes.

In order to survive on a $25 table, it requires a certain degree of hedging to prolong play against the "reality" of having an inadequate
buyin/bankroll...You basically have to be lucky rather quickly to avoid session ruin.
The kinds of hedging Tuttigym is suggesting is simply unavailable in all of the $25 minimum venues I've frequented due to a higher
minimum bet requirement on proposition bets. While overly hedging may be a very fun thing to do in itself, it usually doesn't result
in more than an extension of play with lower win amounts if/when you are lucky and remember to cashout. But you may last longer
and catch a hot roll where you can stop hedging and reap a greater reward than the cautious, hedging-mode you might start with.

And that is one way to approach the craps "reality" of trying to survive the HA (whatever their actual numbers) with a short bankroll.
tuttigym
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July 1st, 2021 at 12:50:00 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Political statement. Three-day suspension.



I did not know "political statements" were against forum rules. Ignorance is no excuse. It will not happen again.

tuttigym
SOOPOO
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July 1st, 2021 at 1:03:37 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

I did not know "political statements" were against forum rules. Ignorance is no excuse. It will not happen again.

tuttigym



More importantly, did you go to a casino during your suspension?
tuttigym
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July 1st, 2021 at 1:10:02 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Wow. Are you saying that the general public thinks "expected return" is a law and a guarantee?


The way you and others try to dismiss and drown out the alternative posts I have offered generates the impression that your views are "law" and are "guaranteed."
Sometimes the loudest and most authoritative sounding voices are embraced by the gullible and/or those who will not do the work necessary to investigate statements, opinions, concepts, or ideas put forth. Therefore, many will accept, without question, such suppositions as fact without listening to or seeking out possible alternatives.

tuttigym
tuttigym
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July 1st, 2021 at 1:16:35 PM permalink
Quote: daveyandersen1

Hey tuttigym try this M.ake 1 dollar bets on any prop bets you want. say 3$ on the hop 7s or 3$ on hop 6 or8 or5$ horns or 1$ any crap or a 1$yo you have 500$ to go thru right??Bet all those STUPID bets in the middle of the table Don't forget to hop any # for $2..You haven't made a 25$ bet yet.. just take your pick or combination of these bets.. you just might hit on some of them... If you do take that win and bet a lay with those winnings Lay a 5 or 9 for 30$$ It might hit... just play it by what #s are hitting. What the hell it's just for entertainment . Right?? also try betting the hard ways for 1 dollar each and parly like crazy if one or all hit...I might do this myself sometime but I wont go thru the whole 500$ Thats for sure.. I know all about house edge on these bets but you cant concern yourself with that if you try this..


You know what would really be entertaining? I will use YOUR $500 and have a blast, AND I will give the results back to you free of charge. BTW the above is so complicated, if you were to try that, the dealers would call security, and the other table patrons would be helping to remove you to the Wheel of Fortune table.

tuttigym
tuttigym
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July 1st, 2021 at 1:27:54 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

More importantly, did you go to a casino during your suspension?


Nope. Thanks to Tanko, I received my WinCraps disc and started to experiment with playing on a $25 table. Boy, trying to win with such minimums is beyond difficult, as you can imagine. But I did manage to pursue a "plan" or "strategy" that worked some. I will relay it to all a little later where you can digest it and probably "roll your eyes" in disbelief. So get ready.

tuttigym
tuttigym
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July 1st, 2021 at 1:47:41 PM permalink
Quote: onebok

When minimum bet requirements are higher, the HA is not as pertinent to the craps bettor as the "reality" of the game. That is because
the laws of larger numbers and statistical validity that generate HA are not as relevant to someone at a $25 table who loses his $300
buyin in, let's say, 10 rolls of the dice playing PL and single odds. What is relevant is that they are smart enough to know enough about
relative HA on types of bets so they bet smaller amounts or may avoid those bets with a higher house edge.

There is always someone who jumps into a $25 table and throws a green or black chip on a horn or some other Hail-Mary bet. They are
either desperate or just don't know or care about the relative HA of various craps bets.

Hedging on a PL/DP bet is common when funds are low because it prevents a large percentage of buyin-loss by a string of just a few
comeout rolls.
Hedging a 6 and 8 for $30 with a $51 lay-10 bet is great on a choppy table when it works, but can wipe out $111 (over a fifth) of an
inadequate $500 buyin on just two rolls (10 followed by 7). But it may work really well sometimes.

In order to survive on a $25 table, it requires a certain degree of hedging to prolong play against the "reality" of having an inadequate
buyin/bankroll...You basically have to be lucky rather quickly to avoid session ruin.
The kinds of hedging Tuttigym is suggesting is simply unavailable in all of the $25 minimum venues I've frequented due to a higher
minimum bet requirement on proposition bets. While overly hedging may be a very fun thing to do in itself, it usually doesn't result
in more than an extension of play with lower win amounts if/when you are lucky and remember to cashout. But you may last longer
and catch a hot roll where you can stop hedging and reap a greater reward than the cautious, hedging-mode you might start with.

And that is one way to approach the craps "reality" of trying to survive the HA (whatever their actual numbers) with a short bankroll.


The totality of this treatise is easy to understand and is, in my opinion, accurate. Because the wagers for the PL + Odds + the Place bets and Field are a minimum of $25, the risk of large losses on the many bets wagered on any given hand, is extreme with early and often 7 outs. Mr. onebok has made a great case for abandoning the inclination to play at such a venue unless one has the ability to buy-in with a large bank-roll and hope that the table and/or a shooter is hot. After reading this, it should become apparent that the touted 1.41 HA is uncertain at best.

So thank you Mr. onebok for the lucid contribution.

tuttigym
sabre
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July 1st, 2021 at 2:19:19 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

After reading this, it should become apparent that the touted 1.41 HA is uncertain at best.



It's very certain. If you don't understand what house advantage is or how it's derived then you should work on that. But it's very certain, and most people will (and should) disregard anything you say if you make silly statements like this.
tuttigym
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July 1st, 2021 at 7:04:46 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

It's very certain. If you don't understand what house advantage is or how it's derived then you should work on that. But it's very certain, and most people will (and should) disregard anything you say if you make silly statements like this.


Mr. Sabre: There is a thread on this forum called "Easy Math Puzzles." Mr. sabre is "very certain" that the HA on PL bets is 1.41%.
1. How much money exactly will a player have to bank roll a game to achieve the perfect 1.41% HA?
2. How much time exactly will that player need to achieve the perfect 1.41% HA?
3. How many hands exactly will that player need to achieve the perfect 1.41% HA?
4. How many rolls of the dice exactly will that player need to achieve the perfect 1.41% HA?
5. With the above questions answered, Tell us how the 1.41% HA is "derived" exactly.
6. In order to prove the 1.41% HA what specific requirements regarding questions 3 & 4 above must be present?

Since "most people" are "certain" and "understand" the 1.41% HA and how it is "derived," if you need help in solving this "Easy Math Puzzle," get as much aid as you would require.

tuttigym
Dieter
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July 1st, 2021 at 8:53:51 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Tell us how the 1.41% HA is "derived" exactly.



https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/1/

That covers it in detail.

Gross simplification:
There are a few more ways to lose than win, based on a sequence of dice roll outcomes.
When they're all added up and the fraction is simplified, there are 7 more ways to lose than win per 495 outcomes.
7 divided by 495 is 1.41%.

Have fun throwing the dice and cheering with your friends.
May the cards fall in your favor.
SanchoPanza
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July 2nd, 2021 at 11:35:44 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

The general public ... they believe The New York Times editorial page.

Doesn't matter. We're close to the end. The Times is now shouting really loudly that we have "one year to save the planet."
daveyandersen1
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July 2nd, 2021 at 1:01:30 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

You know what would really be entertaining? I will use YOUR $500 and have a blast, AND I will give the results back to you free of charge. BTW the above is so complicated, if you were to try that, the dealers would call security, and the other table patrons would be helping to remove you to the Wheel of Fortune table.

tuttigym

It'sTO bad you dont get my response I think it is just what you are looking for,,You dont make all these bets at once ..You make them 1 or 2 ata time maybe get a win and have fun with it.. dealers dont care players wont care either
tuttigym
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July 2nd, 2021 at 1:52:36 PM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

Doesn't matter. We're close to the end. The Times is now shouting really loudly that we have "one year to save the planet."


Man I better get to my bucket list. First, get to a casino; buy in for $5,000; see what happens; second, convince the WoO that the !.41% HA is nothing but a fraction conversion which somehow gives equal status to Come Out Wins vs Point Conversion wins even though the House wins 73% vs 27% point conversions.

tuttigym
Dieter
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July 2nd, 2021 at 2:23:39 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

somehow gives equal status to Come Out Wins vs Point Conversion wins even though the House wins 73% vs 27% point conversions



Do you somehow not give equal status to the money they pay you on the first roll vs the fourth roll?
May the cards fall in your favor.
tuttigym
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July 2nd, 2021 at 2:43:05 PM permalink
Quote: daveyandersen1

It'sTO bad you dont get my response I think it is just what you are looking for,,You dont make all these bets at once ..You make them 1 or 2 ata time maybe get a win and have fun with it.. dealers dont care players wont care either


Mr. daveyandersen1: Sorry, when I read your post, it all ran together as if you were being facetious.

I was experimenting with a "plan" on WinCraps to try to defeat the $25 table. Before I explain it, I want to tell of my craps gambling philosophy that motivates my play. I always set a goal of how much I want to win. I buy-in for $600, and my goal is to win between $250-$400. When I attain those winnings, depending on how long it took, I leave. My "style" is NOT "establishment." My mind-set is NOT negative in expectations, but I am well aware that after a point establishes the HA/HE is against me, big time (House wins 73% vs point conversion winner 27%). Therefore, I do not need a "hot" shooter. In fact, a "choppy" table is doable. One other thing about my approach is that after the point is established, I have 30 ways to win and only 6 ways to lose. That gives me a 5 to 1 edge OVER the House on any given roll of the dice. So:

I start with the Doey/Don't at $25 each way plus a $5 World. I play the 30 ways to win in two ways. If the point is a 5, 6, or 8, I play the Iron Cross with FO of $50 on the point; $60 on the 6; $50 on the 5; and $30 on the Field. (A lot of money with lots of risk--well aware.) Two rolls nets me a minimum of $60, and I come down on all bets except the FO, but I reduce it to $25. For the next 5 rolls, I hop the 7 for $6. A 7 out gives me a push on the PL bets and I lose the FO but win $32 less any hops that did not hit. A PL winner gives me a win of $30 against a $6 hop loss. I am counting on the average hand being resolved in 4 to 6 rolls. The "plan" has other approaches during play, but details can be boring. I will say that the "hopped" 7 is an inexpensive way to hedge, and it worked rather well on WinCraps. To be sure, though, an early 7 out is beyond nasty, but that is gambling. Covering the 30 ways to win and that 5 to 1 edge over the House for a very limited number of rolls has served me well in the past which is not to say that I have lost in some of my sessions.

OK, now you can roll your eyes and comment.

tuttigym
tuttigym
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July 2nd, 2021 at 2:47:13 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Do you somehow not give equal status to the money they pay you on the first roll vs the fourth roll?


Mr.Dieter: That's a great question, but what does that have to do with the 73% HA vs 27% point conversion player disadvantage.? And you do not disagree with that huge HA after point establishment?

tuttigym
Dieter
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July 3rd, 2021 at 5:19:38 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mr.Dieter: That's a great question, but what does that have to do with the 73% HA vs 27% point conversion player disadvantage.? And you do not disagree with that huge HA after point establishment?

tuttigym



Absolutely nothing.
Place your bet before the first roll.
Dice land these ways, you win.
Dice land those ways, you lose.
Dice did something else, you get a second chance to win or lose, with different likelihoods.

1.41% overall.
May the cards fall in your favor.
OnceDear
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July 3rd, 2021 at 6:12:31 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

One other thing about my approach is that after the point is established, I have 30 ways to win and only 6 ways to lose. That gives me a 5 to 1 edge OVER the House on any given roll of the dice. So:
...

OK, now you can roll your eyes and comment.

tuttigym

Methinks 'edge' doesn't mean what you think it means.

Play roulette and put a dollar on all the numbers 1 - 36. that's 36 ways to win and only 2 ways to lose. does that give you an 18 to 1 edge over the house on any given spin of the wheel?*

You really cannot calculate edge or advantage without taking into account the pay out rates as well as the probabilities.

*Incidentally the house edge would be exactly the same whether you did that, or if you placed all your chips on one number.
Last edited by: OnceDear on Jul 3, 2021
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
tuttigym
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July 3rd, 2021 at 7:53:39 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Methinks 'edge' doesn't mean what you think it means.

Quote: OnceDear

Play roulette and put a dollar on all the numbers 1 - 36. that's 36 ways to win and only 2 ways to lose. does that give you an 18 to 1 edge over the house on any given spin of the wheel?*


Mr. Once Dear: Wow, I am flattered that an Administrator would join in and post. Thank you. Your analogy misses the mark terribly in that betting on all 36 numbers in roulette WINS the player NOTHING (emphasis). The "Iron Cross" or my second gambit of playing all the Place bets + the Horn (30 ways to win and 6 ways to lose), returns a substantial amount to my chip tray when successful. The example provided gave me a minimum $60 return for the two hits. Your example would give me NOTHING (emphasis).

Quote: OnceDear

You really cannot calculate edge or advantage without taking into account the pay out rates as well as the probabilities.


I just did. As far as "probability," the likelihood (probability defined) of a number other than the 7 rolled in my scenario is still 5x greater. If that "probability" is not an "edge" or "advantage," then how would you define it?

Quote: Once Dear

*Incidentally the house edge would be exactly the same whether you did that, or if you placed all your chips on one number.


Are you describing roulette or craps?
Webster defines "edge" as "advantage." The "Iron Cross" provides that "advantage." It does not nor do I claim it to be a "guarantee."

tuttigym
tuttigym
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July 3rd, 2021 at 8:04:24 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Absolutely nothing.


MrDieter: As before, you dodge the question and distract attention elsewhere as well as distort the obvious. Speaking of dodging, I noticed that you somehow did not provide answers to the other questions posed: money buy-in; time; dice rolls; hands played; and specific requirements. Why is that? Just sayin'.

tuttigym
Dieter
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July 3rd, 2021 at 8:54:26 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

MrDieter: As before, you dodge the question and distract attention elsewhere as well as distort the obvious. Speaking of dodging, I noticed that you somehow did not provide answers to the other questions posed: money buy-in; time; dice rolls; hands played; and specific requirements. Why is that? Just sayin'.

tuttigym



They don't matter to the house edge.
May the cards fall in your favor.
tuttigym
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July 3rd, 2021 at 10:11:19 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

They don't matter to the house edge.


Nice try, but if you or others are to have any credibility to the very VALID (emphasis) questions posed, then why not be forthcoming or just say, " I don't know." Why are you and others so invested in this wager when it usually leads to big time multiple loses which exceed those in games such as "21." baccarat, roulette (dollar for dollar wager), and even "carnival "card games?

When explaining craps to someone who wants to learn about the game, do you talk about the PL bet as being "one of the best bets in the casino" and go into the convoluted math or do you, prudently, relate the extreme pitfalls of PL bet when the point is established of the HA beating the player to the tune of 73% to 27% of the time?

tuttigym
Dieter
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July 3rd, 2021 at 11:05:16 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Nice try, but if you or others are to have any credibility to the very VALID (emphasis) questions posed, then why not be forthcoming or just say, " I don't know." Why are you and others so invested in this wager when it usually leads to big time multiple loses which exceed those in games such as "21." baccarat, roulette (dollar for dollar wager), and even "carnival "card games?

When explaining craps to someone who wants to learn about the game, do you talk about the PL bet as being "one of the best bets in the casino" and go into the convoluted math or do you, prudently, relate the extreme pitfalls of PL bet when the point is established of the HA beating the player to the tune of 73% to 27% of the time?

tuttigym



Out of 495 pass line bets, you are expected to lose about 7 more than you win.

The rules of the game and the dice landing randomly set that up.

Unless you can change the rules of the game or change the dice to not land randomly, that's about how things are going to go.

How much you bet does not change the rules
How much you bet does not change how the dice land.
Making other bets does not change the rules.
Making other bets does not change how the.dice land.

Once the dice are rolled, your bet cannot be withdrawn until the wager is settled.
You're still subject to the 7 extra losses per 495 rolls, no matter what you do.

You seem to be looking for a system of arranging multiple bets that are more likely to lose than win so that you're more likely to win than lose.
I wish you all the success and happiness you deserve in your pursuit of this endeavor.
May the cards fall in your favor.
sabre
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July 3rd, 2021 at 2:19:13 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym


When explaining craps to someone who wants to learn about the game, do you talk about the PL bet as being "one of the best bets in the casino"



Yes. Because it's a simple wager that carries a 1.41% house edge. Obviously you can do better at baccarat but that game is boring. You can do better at blackjack but that takes memorization of basic strategy. Not to mention that the resolution of a pass line bet takes longer than both of those.
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July 3rd, 2021 at 3:49:53 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Out of 495 pass line bets, you are expected to lose about 7 more than you win.


The rules of the game and the dice landing randomly set that up.


The key word you have used is 'EXPECTED." Real world craps with "random" rolls do not/have not produced documented results that mirror the possibility of playing 495 hands/PL bets consecutive or not with that "expected" outcome. Just because there are 495 possible ways to win and lose PL bets doesn't mean that it can happen in such a way as to create that 1.41% HA/HE. These continued declarations are unsupported and can be viewed as "guarantees" by the unknowing and gullible.

The "establishment" craps community continues to rely and pontificate that this "math" is ABSOLUTE and UNDENIABLE just because it is there when in fact and practice the vast majority of play (over 70%) occurs after point establishment where the real HA/HE overtakes that puny 1.41% and can cause the player multiple and large losses during any given session.
Quote: Dieter

Once the dice are rolled your bet cannot be withdrawn until the wager is settled.
You're still subject to the 7 extra losses per 495 rolls, no matter what you do


Only "7 extra losses," is that your guarantee regardless of point outcomes? Sign me up right now.

Quote: Dieter

I wish you all the success and happiness you deserve in your pursuit of this endeavor.


Thank you. I know that you are sincere in those sentiments. I believe you to be a good person and one with high tolerance because your posts are courteous and respectful.

tuttigym
tuttigym
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July 3rd, 2021 at 4:07:18 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

Yes. Because it's a simple wager that carries a 1.41% house edge. Obviously you can do better at baccarat but that game is boring. You can do better at blackjack but that takes memorization of basic strategy. Not to mention that the resolution of a pass line bet takes longer than both of those.


Mr. sabre: Yes, it is a simple wager to place, but unlike other wagers in other games of chance, the options and outcomes can be much more intricate and complicated not to mention the extreme flip in HA in 70+% of play due to point establishment. Other gambling venues do not offer additional or optional wagers during each play as does craps. The additional and/or optional wagers during any given hand are then directly tied to the success or failure of the PL bet.

Are these fair statements?

tuttigym
AlanMendelson
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July 3rd, 2021 at 4:11:44 PM permalink
Tuttigym is there anyone who agrees with you? If there is please have them join the discussion.

But if you cant find anyone who agrees with you then please understand this subject has been exhausted.

It's been exhausted because you dont understand what the house edge means.

Here's a hint: your personal results might never match the house edge in craps. Never ever.
sabre
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July 3rd, 2021 at 4:31:34 PM permalink
No, they aren't fair statements. The additional wagers, other than the passline odds bet, are in no way, shape or form tied to the success or failure of the PL bet. They are independent bets. They are resolved based on their own criteria. They have zero effect on the house edge of the PL bet you already made. Those bets (except the odds bet) carry their own house edge that is greater than 0%.
tuttigym
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July 3rd, 2021 at 4:37:44 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Tuttigym is there anyone who agrees with you? If there is please have them join the discussion.

But if you cant find anyone who agrees with you then please understand this subject has been exhausted.

It's been exhausted because you dont understand what the house edge means

.

Mr. Mendelson: You are so angry. You need to relax, take a deep breath, kick back, and smell the pot roast.
Are you old enough to remember the "science" and "math" that declared the Earth to be the center of the universe or the Earth was flat, or that man could never fly? Well I am here to inform you that that "math" and "science" was wrong. So.............

Quote: AlanMendelson

Here's a hint: your personal results might never match the house edge in craps. Never ever.


See, now you got it. You have acknowledged that the house edge is unattainable in the real world of craps play. Thank you. Perhaps you can find "someone" whose "personal results" has matched house edge in craps.

tuttigym
Dieter
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July 3rd, 2021 at 4:43:26 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

The key word you have used is 'EXPECTED." Real world craps with "random" rolls do not/have not produced documented results that mirror the possibility of playing 495 hands/PL bets consecutive or not with that "expected" outcome. Just because there are 495 possible ways to win and lose PL bets doesn't mean that it can happen in such a way as to create that 1.41% HA/HE.



I believe this excerpt of a fascinating documentary about a well known historical gambler may be of interest.

https://youtu.be/3PzY_ro13UE


He was a noted 21 player, but I believe he was also known to throw dice.


edit: amend youtube embed
Last edited by: Dieter on Jul 4, 2021
May the cards fall in your favor.
billryan
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July 3rd, 2021 at 4:49:08 PM permalink
The Gentlemen says he has been playing craps since 1960 and seems to think a 1.41 HA means he should lose a dollar forty-one if he brings a $1,000 bankroll. Assuming this is true, why would anyone think he is going to change his thinking now?
Suppose you believed something all your life and after fifty years people started telling you you'd been wrong the whole time? It can't be very easy to accept.
I'd rather read about his fifty years of playing in Vegas.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
tuttigym
tuttigym
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July 3rd, 2021 at 4:49:57 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

No, they aren't fair statements. The additional wagers, other than the passline odds bet, are in no way, shape or form tied to the success or failure of the PL bet. They are independent bets. They are resolved based on their own criteria. They have zero effect on the house edge of the PL bet you already made. Those bets (except the odds bet) carry their own house edge that is greater than 0%.



So all the additional Place bets and prop bets on the table are NOT effected by a 7 Out which closes out the hand and are cleared from the table into the House's stack of chips? While those bets can win independently during the hand, the PL ultimately controls their fate and life span.

tuttigym
sabre
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July 3rd, 2021 at 4:51:27 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Are you old enough to remember the "science" and "math" that declared the Earth to be the center of the universe or the Earth was flat, or that man could never fly? Well I am here to inform you that that "math" and "science" was wrong. So.............



If this isn't getting into trolling territory I don't know what is.
sabre
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July 3rd, 2021 at 4:52:44 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

So all the additional Place bets and prop bets on the table are NOT effected by a 7 Out which closes out the hand and are cleared from the table into the House's stack of chips? While those bets can win independently during the hand, the PL ultimately controls their fate and life span.

tuttigym



They have nothing to do with the house edge of the passline bet. They are independent bets that carry their own house edge.

I personally don't believe your motives are pure.
tuttigym
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July 3rd, 2021 at 4:58:27 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

The Gentlemen says he has been playing craps since 1960 and seems to think a 1.41 HA means he should lose a dollar forty-one if he brings a $1,000 bankroll. Assuming this is true, why would anyone think he is going to change his thinking now?
Suppose you believed something all your life and after fifty years people started telling you you'd been wrong the whole time? It can't be very easy to accept.
I'd rather read about his fifty years of playing in Vegas.



Very profound and many times it is true, but one can hope, I guess, in affecting change.

I am not sure that would be a compelling read, but who knows maybe Mr. Mendelson will produce such and become a best selling author.

tuttigym
tuttigym
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July 3rd, 2021 at 5:10:16 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

They have nothing to do with the house edge of the passline bet. They are independent bets that carry their own house edge.

I personally don't believe your motives are pure.



I did not say they have anything to do with the HE. I simply stated that the PL affects other right side bets on the table. If you think I inferred such, it is not the case. Purity of "motive? Not sure what that means.

tuttigym
SOOPOO
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July 3rd, 2021 at 5:22:00 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

I did not say they have anything to do with the HE. I simply stated that the PL affects other right side bets on the table. If you think I inferred such, it is not the case. Purity of "motive? Not sure what that means.

tuttigym



Tutti…. NO ONE HERE IS SAYING IF YOU PLAY 100 pass lines at $10 you will lose EXACTLY $14.10.

To have a coherent discussion with you, first you must understand what variance is. You clearly do not. So in addition to not understanding g what house edge is, you don’t understand variance either. You’ve gone 80 years and have no clue over any of the math that governs gambling? Really?
odiousgambit
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July 3rd, 2021 at 5:35:45 PM permalink
Mr. Tuttigym, I think I finally know where you are coming from. The HE of Craps on the line bets is often remarked on to be one of the lowest edges of any bet in the casino. You seem to feel this is emphasized too much, that we would be better off just shutting up, because what you have seen over the years is people getting clobbered at Craps. 

Some are taking your comments to mean you don't believe the math. I don't think that's true. 

Some are taking your comments as a subtle attempt to troll. I don't thinks so, but I have to admit I think this thread should have died a long time ago. 

I think you are just saying the low edge on the pass line isn't going to save you. For the most part, if someone becomes a Craps player, you feel such a person better be prepared to forget about 'low house edge' . It has little reality to it as an experience you will get at a session or many sessions. When posters also say the same thing, you feel they still don't get it when they won't also say the 1.41% edge has little practical meaning. 

One reason I have come to this conclusion is you have asked me a lot of questions about the math elsewhere, and I don't get a retort that you don't buy it when I try to explain what I know [which has limits]

Am I right about this?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ace2
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July 3rd, 2021 at 5:43:24 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

The key word you have used is 'EXPECTED." Real world craps with "random" rolls do not/have not produced documented results that mirror the possibility of playing 495 hands/PL bets consecutive or not with that "expected" outcome. Just because there are 495 possible ways to win and lose PL bets doesn't mean that it can happen in such a way as to create that 1.41% HA/HE. These continued declarations are unsupported and can be viewed as "guarantees" by the unknowing and gullible.

The "establishment" craps community continues to rely and pontificate that this "math" is ABSOLUTE and UNDENIABLE just because it is there when in fact and practice the vast majority of play (over 70%) occurs after point establishment where the real HA/HE overtakes that puny 1.41% and can cause the player multiple and large losses during any given session.

Only "7 extra losses," is that your guarantee regardless of point outcomes? Sign me up right now.


Thank you. I know that you are sincere in those sentiments. I believe you to be a good person and one with high tolerance because your posts are courteous and respectful.

tuttigym

Seems like you need to work on your basic probability and statistics knowledge.

If you were to make one billion PL bets, you can be about 99.9% confident that your loss will be 1.41% of the total amount you wagered. Flat betting of course

And regarding the HE varying after a point is established, you could say the same thing about blackjack, for instance. The overall HE is about half a percent but if the dealer is showing an Ace and you get dealt a hard 16, it's a lot higher for that hand. Why don't you just bet Don't Pass then...once a point is established you have the edge
It’s all about making that GTA
Doc
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MichaelBluejay
July 3rd, 2021 at 6:12:17 PM permalink
Those of us who have studied statistics and probability theory understand this stuff about craps. We also understand the outcome probability for the flip of a fair coin is 50% heads and 50% tails.

But c'mon, folks, tuttigym has pointed out to us that if that were really true, then every 10 flips of that coin would result in exactly 5 heads and 5 tails. Likewise, every 50 flips would result in exactly 25 heads and 25 tails, and every 5 flips would result in exactly 2.5 heads and 2.5 tails.

Now, we know that can't be, so -- based on tuttigym's expert guidance -- it seams we must abandon the stupidity of expecting a fair coin flip to result in 50% heads and 50% tails. All of that was just absurd mathmaticians talking.
Calder
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July 3rd, 2021 at 7:00:38 PM permalink
I'm sure the next response will crush Tutti with the overwhelming weight of mathematics and the thread will be resolved to everyone's satisfaction.
AlanMendelson
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July 3rd, 2021 at 7:42:02 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Very profound and many times it is true, but one can hope, I guess, in affecting change.

I am not sure that would be a compelling read, but who knows maybe Mr. Mendelson will produce such and become a best selling author.

tuttigym



You're insulting me and your previous comment about smelling the pot roast borders on anti semitism.

Stop it.

This thread has lost its value and needs to be hidden.
Wizard
Administrator
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July 3rd, 2021 at 8:13:30 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

.Mr. Mendelson: You are so angry. You need to relax, take a deep breath, kick back, and smell the pot roast.



Personal insult/trolling -- three days.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
MichaelBluejay
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July 4th, 2021 at 12:09:35 AM permalink
It's funny how tuttigym always signs his posts, as though every poster's screen name isn't prominently listed to the left of his/her post.
Presidential Election polls and odds: https://2605.me/p
ChumpChange
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July 4th, 2021 at 1:05:20 AM permalink
Just place $25 on the 5 or 9 and run a progression. There's a lot less come-out action on place bets.

If it was a $100 table, I'd lay the 5 or 9 for $105 (+ vig) and run a progression.
If the table minimum says the payout has to be $100+, then I'll move to a $50 table and bet $75 (+vig) on the lay 5 or 9 and run a progression. When I pay the vig up front, the payout will be $50. If the vig is taken on a win, then I get paid less than $50 and that bet may not be permissible.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jul 4, 2021
odiousgambit
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July 4th, 2021 at 3:26:36 AM permalink
you can always count on ChumpChange to solve the problem

The rest of us have learned a new way to insult a Jew. Little did I know you could fling 'pot-roasting' at them and they would lose it! Odd that it doesn't show up in this list of 25,

https://tasty.co/article/deenashanker/make-bubbe-proud
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ChumpChange
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July 4th, 2021 at 3:56:09 AM permalink
I have to stand between my microwave oven when it's on and my router or else I lose my wifi. They are 15-20 feet away from each other, but the 2.4Ghz band gets cloudy.
OnceDear
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July 4th, 2021 at 5:00:01 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Personal insult/trolling -- three days.


Unusual for Wizard to penalise for trolling. I do concur. I believe the OP is being deliberately mischievous and provocative in his assertions. There's a subtle undertone to his posting style that makes me deeply suspicious. Time will tell.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
DeMango
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odiousgambit
July 4th, 2021 at 8:06:57 AM permalink
We already spent 200 pages on this subject many years ago, the first mega post thread until the Not so Hot Blonde challenge. History repeats itself and those who do not take that lesson are doomed to repeat it's mistakes.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
OnceDear
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July 4th, 2021 at 9:45:13 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

We already spent 200 pages ...History repeats itself and those who do not take that lesson are doomed to repeat it's mistakes.

Was one of the dice a two?
$:o)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
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