odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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June 22nd, 2021 at 9:05:21 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

...some SIMPLE craps math such as: point is 8; play DP odds at $18; play the Hard 8 for $9.

well, you told me that you've experienced uncivil pushback in the past, so I'll try to not 'go there' ... but there's a 'but' alright. It sounds good *but* you've only listed -EV bets... you qualified your remarks so let's say you know that but are hoping for short term good results. The problem is you're going down the road marked 'hedging' , and honestly you should really think that hedging favors the house in the sense that it takes away variance, your only hope at -EV betting.

Quote:

I now have 7 ways to win and 4 ways to lose. I have a mathematical advantage of winning over the house.

!!! ... I refer back to 'just knowing' you have an error without doing the work to show it because you've only listed -EV bets. So, it takes time for me to find it, if I can do it, certainly others can. I'll see what I can come up with.

Quote:

If I win by 7 out, it is small, $6; if I win by the Hard 8: $72, really good. If I lose with a easy 8 which happens; -$18 no big deal but fun and not "crushing"...

this I've seen before. The problem with this kind of 'math' is that it doesn't weigh in the probabilities. You're not doing the right math unless the probability is factored.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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June 22nd, 2021 at 9:31:33 AM permalink
MrV: Nice to know and a very nice compliment. Just to be clear, I am not looking for "approval" in an ego sense, but to offer simple doable bankroll extending possibilities to those with an open mind. If by "math approved," you mean Wizard following or variances, or standard deviations (SD), or HA , or HE "math," I personally believe those are false narratives. All they seem to do is create confusion, doubt, weed (not the kind one smokes) searching, and nit picking into a game that only requires a person knows 3rd grade arithmetic and apply it logically. Again, thanks for nice words.

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 22nd, 2021 at 10:11:31 AM permalink
Mr O: Your responses and posts are NOT uncivil to me. They are thoughtful and to many represent those within the craps "establishment" thinking. When I play, I establish a winning goal number ($$$) for any given session. All of my play is "short term." I do not know anything else. The only true "variance" is guessing correctly, i.e., luck if you will. I try to nudge the luck to my side by creating a mathematical advantage (probability of winning over losing ) of number of ways to win vs number of ways to lose at any given time in my play. My strategies vary during the session, and the one shown above is NOT always in play with a 6 or 8 point. The above scenario gives me a 57+% probability of winning something. That sure is better than 16+% chance of losing in a straight PL+ odds play. Don't forget, I never lose my PL bet no matter what happens as opposed to a 7 out taking that PL + odds out: a double whammy. As far as finding the "error" do not forget to factor in PL bet loses as opposed to wins.

I appreciate your dedication to trying to research the EV bets, but really it is diving into the weeds that I am not willing to chase.

tuttigym
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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June 22nd, 2021 at 11:08:58 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mr O: Your responses and posts are NOT uncivil to me.

Thanks. As you know, there is nothing easier than to go on the internet and exercise the demon that makes you want to troll. It seems to be in everybody.

Quote:

I appreciate your dedication to trying to research the EV bets, but really it is diving into the weeds that I am not willing to chase.

OK. Unfortunately I put some time and effort into it. So don't click on the box marked 'examination'. Lots of edits.

Quote:

[if the] point is 8; play DP odds at $18; play the Hard 8 for $9

I assume we got here with the doey-don't or we couldn't do the DP odds. The 12s that get rolled on the come-out aside, reaching this point is where I think you evaluate the situation as " I now have 7 ways to win and 4 ways to lose". I'll try to check that out. 

so there's 6/36 prob of 7 which would result in losing the Hard 8 for $9 and winning the odds bet for $15, $6 to the positive. Winning/losing the line bet is offset.

there's 1/36 chance of rolling a hard 8 winning $81 and losing $18 odds bet. Winning/losing the line bet is offset. 

there's 4/36 chance of rolling a different 8 losing $9 + $18. Winning/losing the line bet is offset.

all other rolls are meaningless, so it resets every roll. 

[6/36*6]+[1/36*63]+[4/36*-27]= -0.25 ... I concede that my math is often in error, but I think I got that right

As for 7 ways to win and 4 ways to lose, you are correct there are 11 outcomes . Your error was in failing to subtract all the losses for rolling a 7 and a hard eight from the winning amounts, but check my work someone. [edit] I did make some mistakes I just caught. if you roll the hard 8 it comes out just fine for you, rolling a 7 is to the positive as well. Losing the hard 8 is the killer
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Jun 22, 2021
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
TDVegas
TDVegas
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June 22nd, 2021 at 11:15:02 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Last Memorial Day I went to Harrah's Casino in Cherokee, NC, about 2 hrs. drive from home, for some gambling action. To my dismay, the table minimums were $25. I immediately turned away, played some slots, and left very disappointed. Time passed and I thought out a plan, which I have NOT tried yet, on how to defeat the $25 casino imposed minimum with legal small bets ($3-15), still use the $25 minimum when necessary, play for an hour or more without going bankrupt on a "cold" or "choppy" table, and possibly walking away winning. So to those of you forum player/participants, using your creative juices, tell us how one would attack those greedy casinos and the $25 table minimum using those small table legal bets in conjunction with the $25 minimum as required. Your buy-in should be $500. Your plan can be point specific. After a week of answers, I will reveal my plan or "system."


The only way to really do what you suggest is to make a hedge play. The only thing a hedge does is drive up the house edge and limit the variance.

I’m sure there limitless hedge plays.
tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 22nd, 2021 at 2:20:53 PM permalink
Mr. O: When I started the original thread about, what I called, the PL 1.41 hoax, it lasted for months and every time I responded to "debunk" the various posts many called me a "troll." I was very amused. Then there were those who tried to "troll" me. I really enjoyed those folks and never got angry; I just had fun with my rebuttals.

I will wait on you to tell me to hit the "examination" switch when you are ready. We are having fun, right?

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 22nd, 2021 at 2:32:02 PM permalink
Mr TDVegas: Thanks for jumping in and getting me back to the original intent of this thread. Actually in my vision to defeat the $25 table, there is some hedge betting, however, my outside the box thinking uses a number of really small wagers (from $1 - $15) that offer reasonable returns as some risk, but allows one to extend their buy-in for a much longer period than if one were to just play as an "establishment" player or even with $25 minimum hedge bets to satisfy the table "marshals." Try and think about it some more if you have some free time. Get creative. When I explain my plan next week, you will probably want to slap me silly and roll your eyes. I actually think it could work to win some.

tuttigym
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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June 22nd, 2021 at 3:04:51 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mr TDVegas: Thanks for jumping in and getting me back to the original intent of this thread. Actually in my vision to defeat the $25 table, there is some hedge betting, however, my outside the box thinking uses a number of really small wagers (from $1 - $15) that offer reasonable returns as some risk, but allows one to extend their buy-in for a much longer period than if one were to just play as an "establishment" player or even with $25 minimum hedge bets to satisfy the table "marshals." Try and think about it some more if you have some free time. Get creative. When I explain my plan next week, you will probably want to slap me silly and roll your eyes. I actually think it could work to win some.

tuttigym



You mentioned ‘the50’s’ I believe somewhere upthread so you I assume are at least in your 70’s? You have not reinvented the wheel here. Your doey/don’t with boxcar bet will cost you $5-10 an hour to be able to play the bets you want. If that is worth it to you, go for it. Overall, if there are no tables less than $25 it gets you a seat at the table for a small price. Trust me, you are not ‘fooling’ them. They will be happy to take a guaranteed $5-10 an hour plus an expected few more $ per hour on your -EV bets. If your only additional bets are ‘free odds’ bets then your expected loss is only the initial $5-10 an hour. You are less likely to win than a ‘regular’ bettor, but you are correct that you are likely to have a defined bankroll last longer. Any reply you make, or any further replies to you are just blather. Go to the casino and tell us how it worked out!
tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 22nd, 2021 at 5:13:21 PM permalink
Mr. SOOPOO: I am 80 yrs. old, and I am not trying to "reinvent the wheel." The casinos can not exist on patrons losing $10/hr. BTW, I am not trying to "fool them." I can use their rules and limits along with my "creativity" to play. If it does not work, which most plans do not including the so-called "regular bettor," so be it.

When I read all the posts from veteran players who espouse their savant math HA/HE/variance/SD/'SD2 ad nauseum, the novice/newby/susceptible/easily led/easily swayed folks out there who desperately want to play and win probably believe that those "savants" have ALL the answers and never ever lose. They believe you guys are "Rain Man."

As far as "less likely to win than a "regular bettor' "? You don't know that; you are just guessing much like the way you play. "Blather?" Really?

tuttigym
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
gordonm888
June 22nd, 2021 at 5:25:01 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mr. SOOPOO: I am 80 yrs. old, and I am not trying to "reinvent the wheel." The casinos can not exist on patrons losing $10/hr. BTW, I am not trying to "fool them." I can use their rules and limits along with my "creativity" to play. If it does not work, which most plans do not including the so-called "regular bettor," so be it.

When I read all the posts from veteran players who espouse their savant math HA/HE/variance/SD/'SD2 ad nauseum, the novice/newby/susceptible/easily led/easily swayed folks out there who desperately want to play and win probably believe that those "savants" have ALL the answers and never ever lose. They believe you guys are "Rain Man."

As far as "less likely to win than a "regular bettor' "? You don't know that; you are just guessing much like the way you play. "Blather?" Really?

tuttigym



I haven’t lost at Craps in about three years. I played one session in that amount of time and won.

The only answer that I claim to have when it comes to Craps is which bets have the lowest edge, but for me, I think players should do whatever they like…my interest is exclusively in them understanding the expected loss (cost) of each bet.

I only play $5 tables and hedge my Pass Line CO with a $1 Crap Check. Terrible bet, but I know what it costs me in the long run and I almost never play Craps.

I don’t know why this perception exists that math guys, APs, or both, look down on ALL -EV play, but that’s simply not the case with most of us. I just want people to know what the expected loss of their action is.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

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