Ace2
Ace2
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June 23rd, 2021 at 9:32:03 AM permalink
There is a better strategy though: Never play at cold tables (-EV). Medium tables are break-even and hot tables are +EV
It’s all about making that GTA
tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 23rd, 2021 at 11:01:31 AM permalink
Mr. O: I reviewed your very thorough, hard work and can find NO fault in the statistical analysis. Is the resultant figure of -.25 actually 1/4 of 1% or is it a much higher number like -25%? The "wild" card in the overall scenario is with some good luck and a skewed table, is the hard 8. For me, a $27 loss on the easy 8 is tolerable and why we call it gambling. If one were to compare this play against a regular hand where the PL is $10 + odds of $15 + play on one other number $12 on the 6, a 7 out prior to hitting anything (fairly likely) results in a total loss of $37. Conversion of the point is at .8333 with 5 ways to win and 6 ways to lose. In terms of the real play I have witnessed, most players are playing PL + odds + at least 2 other numbers and sometimes a junk bet or two which obviously increases the amount at risk and can result in larger losses. My sense of things is that the majority of patrons of this forum who consider themselves in some kind of "expert" class play that way regardless of the savant math they espouse on HA/HE/variance/EV. What say you?

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 23rd, 2021 at 11:09:07 AM permalink
Mr Ace2: I agree with that great advice. So when you walk up to the table, how can one tell? To my knowledge, "hot tables" happen about 8% of the time as opposed to "choppy" tables about 60+%, and "cold" tables 30+%. Again, how does one determine what is going to happen in the future at that table?

tuttigym.
TDVegas
TDVegas
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June 23rd, 2021 at 11:19:44 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

All gambling in a casino is obviously -EV. My view is that the EV is so low (under half a percent) on properly played games such as Craps and BJ that it's actually one of the cheaper forms of entertainment available. Assuming you like gambling of course. It's so low that you could even beat the edge over a lifetime of playing via variance


Yep.

The house edge is very low on craps and blackjack. Obviously a person can crank it up with prop bets and other types of hedges or bets….but 1.41% (pass) and 0% (odds) is pretty good. Why screw with it?

If it’s high limits that is causing the problem…I’d simply pass from playing. I’m not that desperate to play where I would need to invoke some convoluted plan to keep me playing longer.

Nobody is getting rich gambling. It’s entertainment. I can play $1 bubble craps all day everyday in Vegas and keep it close to net zero. With some variance…I might get a month of being net positive.

It’s all about what you’re looking for. The guy playing 3 times a week likely has a different agenda than the guy playing once every 2 months on vacation.
tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 23rd, 2021 at 11:46:59 AM permalink
Mr.O: I truly appreciate your explanation and patience. For me and the casino, the PL bet requires and commits the player to right side betting including free odds + additional numbers other than the point. Depending on the point that -EV gets larger in two ways: (1) 6 & 8 .833; 5 & 9 .333; 4 & 10 .50 and (2) each additional wager within a given hand increases any kind of breakeven possibility let alone an overall win for the hand. So as you have shown above the more -EV bets the greater the overall risk of large losses. As you are aware, the average hand in craps is about 5 rolls to conclusion of a 7 out or a point conversion. Therefore, a "choppy" table will and does kill exclusive right side betting. One other thing and this is not a criticism, the assumptions people make about any form of wager at the craps table is that the player is going to play and wager exactly the same for each hand so that the math and statistics will provide a "certainty" of outcome. That is not how I play, however, it is how most players play that I have witnessed.

For me, the doey/don't, regardless of the table minimum, gives me the freedom to chose based on how I feel the table is playing. After all, craps, like all games of chance, is a guessing game, and no amount of savant math will change that.

tuttigym
Ace2
Ace2
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June 23rd, 2021 at 12:21:52 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mr Ace2: I agree with that great advice. So when you walk up to the table, how can one tell? To my knowledge, "hot tables" happen about 8% of the time as opposed to "choppy" tables about 60+%, and "cold" tables 30+%. Again, how does one determine what is going to happen in the future at that table?

tuttigym.

Enter a table when a shooter has won three points...that's a hot table. He's proven his ability and will almost certainly win another three. But get out after that because then a losing streak is overdue.
It’s all about making that GTA
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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June 23rd, 2021 at 12:34:44 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mr. O: I reviewed your very thorough, hard work and can find NO fault in the statistical analysis. Is the resultant figure of -.25 actually 1/4 of 1% or is it a much higher number like -25%?

It is actually 25 cents, I'm surprised it's that small myself, and had been waiting for someone to point out a mistake. Bear in mind that before you add the hard 8 bet the expectation is a loss of zero, since we are looking at this at a certain stage of a doey-don't game that excludes the come-out.

Quote:

... In terms of the real play I have witnessed, most players are playing PL + odds + at least 2 other numbers and sometimes a junk bet or two which obviously increases the amount at risk and can result in larger losses. My sense of things is that the majority of patrons of this forum who consider themselves in some kind of "expert" class play that way regardless of the savant math they espouse on HA/HE/variance/EV. What say you?

I too have noticed a disregard for the best bets from those very same, we just heard about hedging with the 'any craps' on the come-out from someone who is handier with the math than I am. I also notice that if someone learned to play from other players and the dealers, they learn to love certain bets and can't abandon them later after accepting all the math.

Quote:

For me, the doey/don't, regardless of the table minimum, gives me the freedom to chose based on how I feel the table is playing. After all, craps, like all games of chance, is a guessing game, and no amount of savant math will change that.

At 80 yrs old I guess you can do as you please. As for your many other comments I'm not sure I have much to add at this point
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
Mission146
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June 23rd, 2021 at 12:37:00 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mission 146: Thanks for the post. What are AP's and who are "most of us"? I am not being critical. It is just that folks who consider themselves to be craps "officiandos", i.e. experts that I have seen play do not do much better than their novice counterparts even though they claim to know the best bets with the lowest HA/HE. It is gambling, and play along with the dice tosses are random events.

The "expected loss of their action" has mostly to with ego, lack of discipline, and the simple arithmetic associated with any gambling endeavor.

tuttigym



APs = Advantage Players

When it comes to advantage players and math guys, just because we discuss the EV doesn't generally mean that we have any ill-feelings against players that do not play in the way that yields the lowest expected loss. Absent something that would make a game positive (such as a promotion), the only way to play Craps with the lowest expected loss would be one of two ways:

1.) Find someone who trust who doesn't like making odds bets and get to bet their odds for them.

OR:

2.) Not playing Craps.

364 days per year, I choose Option 2...the other day of the year I will buy into Craps for something like $40, make a Pass Line bet of $5, Crap Check on the CO of $1, double odds, and Place the Six and Eight (unless one is the point) for $6 each. I'll also put the dealers on Six and Eight for $1 each because this particular casino pays them out at $3 and down when it hits, so I'll put them back up.

My expected loss on Pass Line is 7.05 cents, 15.2 cents expected loss on the Place Bets (when both need to be made, or 7.6 cents per), the $2 in dealer tokes is gone (and any time I put the $1 back up, which is whenever it hits, so those are fixed loss) and then I'm losing 11.1 cents on each Crap Check, which seems absurd when compared to to the other numbers!

If I seven out relatively early, then my expected loss is under $1, not counting the tokes, which is acceptable to me for getting to roll the dice in the rare event that I feel like it. If I am winning, then my expected loss goes up, because I'm making more bets than if I'd had an early seven-out.

If I make three points in a row, then I keep going. If I fail to make three points in a row, then I quit immediately. If I make three points in a row, the whole thing basically resets and now I am willing to have two seven outs before quitting. After the first one, I have to make three points in a row to bring it back up to two, that failing, quit.

Anyway, that's what I advocate for---I don't really want much more than for people to understand the expected loss of each bet and make an informed decision as to whether or not it's worth it to them. I'll eat my expected 18+ cents expected loss on the Come Out roll with that Crap Check because I don't like having a net loss on the Come Out roll. I'd rather win some amount or move on to trying to make my point.

I'd probably eventually abandon the Crap Check if I played Craps a lot, but fortunately for me, I've only played once in three years. Over the last seven years, I've probably averaged 1-2 sessions per year...I've basically also played whenever I have felt like it; I only rarely get the, 'Urge,' to shoot the dice. I figure my total expected loss is ~$100 in all of that time.

Also fortunately for me, I have a really low risk tolerance and an even lower tolerance for losing.
Last edited by: Mission146 on Jun 23, 2021
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 23rd, 2021 at 1:12:06 PM permalink
TDVegas: Your last three paragraphs are right on. I do not believe I have ever seen "bubble-craps," so i will take your word for it. As I might have mentioned before Biloxi's gaming is very competitive with most minimums at $10 or less. The Palace for instance has $3 craps tables whereas the Beau's tables are $10. You would be in hog heaven there alone with Mr. Chump c. Vegas may have the glitz and glamour, but Biloxi has the value and real economical gambling fun.

Without getting into a pissing contest, your 1st paragraph is misleading in that the HE, after the point is established, jumps progressively. It is not about a 0% HE on the payout; it's about the win/loss potential of the point conversion.

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 23rd, 2021 at 1:35:37 PM permalink
Mr. Ace2: The last time I saw someone win three points in a row was, I cannot remember, but there was a time it happened that I did see, and his 4th come out was point; 7out. It happens in a random game where the dice have no memory. All I am trying to say is that nothing in gambling is for certain. Sometimes we have to trust our instincts and cross our fingers.

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