odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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June 22nd, 2021 at 6:40:23 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

I will wait on you to tell me to hit the "examination" switch when you are ready. We are having fun, right?

You can hit it anytime. But I wanted you to be able to decline to do so, since you said you don't want to get into the weeds.

I felt compelled to follow the formula that goes, "the amount won or lost in gambling is the amount won times the probability of winning minus the amount loss times the prob. of losing" . Simple as that.

I get those heebie-jeebies when I see an evaluation that does not take probability into account.

Quote:

We are having fun, right?

yeah, it's nice to get rid of the heebie-jeebies, just want to see if I can do it. I just hope you aren't one of the guys I've seen who really did think the doey-don't cancelled out the bets perfectly. I've run into those players and they are definitely not having fun. They are still losing on the line bets and they are betting twice as much , each bet against an edge.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
June 22nd, 2021 at 6:43:41 PM permalink
Mission 146: Thanks for the post. What are AP's and who are "most of us"? I am not being critical. It is just that folks who consider themselves to be craps "officiandos", i.e. experts that I have seen play do not do much better than their novice counterparts even though they claim to know the best bets with the lowest HA/HE. It is gambling, and play along with the dice tosses are random events.

The "expected loss of their action" has mostly to with ego, lack of discipline, and the simple arithmetic associated with any gambling endeavor.

tuttigym
sabre
sabre
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
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June 22nd, 2021 at 6:53:38 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym


The "expected loss of their action" has mostly to with ego, lack of discipline, and the simple arithmetic associated with any gambling endeavor.



One out of three ain't bad.
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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June 22nd, 2021 at 6:55:01 PM permalink
Mr. O: I just quickly wanted to respond on your bet "cancelling" comment. I know that me playing the doey/don't is NOT unique, but I personally have never seen anyone else play that way. When I do, the dealers give me strange looks of bewilderment, and I have to teach them to not take and replace the chips that all they have to do is knock on the table. It takes a few hands, but eventually they get it and we laugh alot. I do not know what you mean by "cancelling out the bets perfectly." Can you explain?

tuttigym
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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June 22nd, 2021 at 7:05:09 PM permalink
If you wanted to make a $15 game out of a $25 table, you could bet $25 on the PL & $40 on the DP and lay your odds on the Don't. You'll lose close to 91 cents per come-out roll in HA on the $65 line bets at 1.4%. That means you'll lose $65 in HA after every 72 come-out rolls. It's the difference between pushing and winning on the 12 on the Don't Pass; and losing and pushing on the 12 on the Pass Line. You lose half a bet on each on the come-out 12's.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jun 23, 2021
Ace2
Ace2
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June 22nd, 2021 at 8:16:51 PM permalink
All gambling in a casino is obviously -EV. My view is that the EV is so low (under half a percent) on properly played games such as Craps and BJ that it's actually one of the cheaper forms of entertainment available. Assuming you like gambling of course. It's so low that you could even beat the edge over a lifetime of playing via variance

Are there still $5 dollar tables downtown? In Vegas a few weeks ago it was sometimes difficult finding a table under $50 at Cosmo/Aria
It’s all about making that GTA
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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June 23rd, 2021 at 3:11:00 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

...  I do not know what you mean by "cancelling out the bets perfectly." Can you explain?

Let's say someone who didn't know it before finally accepts the idea that no combination of bets that have a house edge can result in player advantage *or* even reduce the amount of negative average expected loss... even in the case of hedging bets. 

When it comes to the doey-don't, though, this same person might feel that "here is an exception", clearly the Pass bet cancels out the Don't Pass bet! Except for that pesky come-out 12, which is no big deal. Well, if it isn't, then the lamented $25 minimum is no big deal either. 

But OK, you can bet on the 12 as well, and if it comes up on the come-out that bet will cancel out that problem too, right? Well, it sure would if it would quit losing on the come-out when the roll is the other 35 possibilities. 

I won't take you into the weeds and show the math, but when you come up with the idea of adding one -EV to another -EV bet, you are increasing the amount of loss to be expected on average. That's easy to see when your wife places a bet on her game at the same time you place your bet on your different game. But it seems hard to see for some very smart people when it comes to hedging. In the case of the doey-don't, at a $25 table, you have decided to change from putting $25 up against the house edge to now putting $50 up against it for the benefit of never being able to win. OK, you add some other bets so you can win maybe; all the bets being offered by the casino are -EV too*, and you are making it worse. Without going into the weeds that's the best I can explain it. 

I too once thought the doey-don't was brilliant. About 16 years ago I emailed the Wizard about it [you could do that then and he would email you back!]. I was quite shocked to find out what he said and it took me a year or two to really believe I was so wrong. 

*except the free odds, which are available all along without doing all these somersaults
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Jun 23, 2021
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Tanko
Tanko
Joined: Apr 22, 2013
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June 23rd, 2021 at 4:52:06 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Whenever I play, regardless of the table limit, I use the "Doey/Don't on the come out simply because winning a table minimum bet at come out is not important to my over-all strategy. What that does is allows me to play Don't odds when the table is cold or the HA on the point is so great, i.e. 10 or 4, Now, I do not have to pay a vig on a lay which does the same thing. Also, I can play both sides of the table and use the Don't odds as a hedge on a "choppy" table.



Try running that on your WinCraps, and you will quickly find it either loses more, or does not win as much, vs betting the DP or PL alone. You are taking the important 7 and the 11 out of play. Eight winning dice combinations on the come out, canceled by the DP bet.

Whatever you might win with your DP odds bets, will be more than offset by the lost come out roll win opportunities on the PL.

You are also betting twice as much on the come out, where you are expected to lose 1.36% of the total bet on the DP, and 1.41% of the total bet on the PL. Doubling your potential loss on those combined bets. Hedging with a bet on the 12, would only make it worse.
tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 23rd, 2021 at 8:17:20 AM permalink
Sabre: Which one and how so?
tuttigym
tuttigym
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June 23rd, 2021 at 8:26:25 AM permalink
Mr. Chump c: I appreciate the attempt, but again, for me, the PL bet is just a gateway to play and holds no allure to my overall game plan, so if I lose $1 at come out each time to protect the PL bet, I am okay with that and it is easily recovered through other betting practices. Being an old, short, fat, dumpy dude, I can only stay at the table for between an hour to 2 hours before becoming either bored with the game or just tired. So 72 come outs might be a bit much for me.

tuttigym

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