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OnceDear
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OnceDear
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April 3rd, 2021 at 1:43:15 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

...I have lost 14-15 hands in a row or gone 15-16 hands with a push mixed in (no wins) MANY times. I don't really track such streaks, so I don't really think about it until I am well into a streak and then, you think "I have lost quite a number of hands but is it 7 or 9. But I KNOW I have hit 14-15 a good number of times.
...
So just take that number I am giving 15 losses in a row, and apply it to your betting system, and tell me how it works out.



I'll just point out to Wellbush that Kewlj is a professional card counter. Hence an expert on +EV (and -EV) blackjack.

And a reminder to both of you that defeating a 15 loss streak is not the only objective that Wellbush needs to beat, before he says "Oh. I'll break the streak by sitting out some hands" Or.. "But because It's not Martingale I can last longer"
WellBush would also need to defeat streaks that are already broken, such as LLLLWLLLLL...WLLLLL...WLLLLL
He won't, of course, be able to do that.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
Wellbush
Wellbush
Joined: Mar 23, 2021
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April 3rd, 2021 at 1:59:34 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

At the risk of upsetting you, these strategies have been considered, about a million times, and by people much smarter than me.

I just started my 18th year of playing blackjack for a living this week. Late start to the year because of the covid situation and waiting for a vaccine.

So I have played a lot of blackjack hands. There are those here that have played even more and longer than me, but I will go by my own experiences. I have lost 14-15 hands in a row or gone 15-16 hands with a push mixed in (no wins) MANY times. I don't really track such streaks, so I don't really think about it until I am well into a streak and then, you think "I have lost quite a number of hands but is it 7 or 9. But I KNOW I have hit 14-15 a good number of times.

You can easily figure out just how often such a streak will occur by running simulations with computer software. But I know you aren't going to do that.

So just take that number I am giving 15 losses in a row, and apply it to your betting system, and tell me how it works out. With a pure martingale, you will be over the table limit after 9-10 losses. You are not escalating as quickly as a pure martingale, but you are still going to come up against, either your bankroll limit or table limits at some point. Those streaks DO happen. And when they do, they will wipe you out and all the little wins you have accumulated plus some. That is just a mathematical fact. I know it can be frustrating to hear things you don't want to hear, but the sooner you accept some of these things the better off you will be. Go ahead, prove them to yourself if you have to.



I have already spelt out in numerous posts in this thread, how my strategy deals with streaks. I also don't currently condone using my strategy until I have understood -EV to its fullest.

As for MDawg, I don't think users should automatically assume he's bogus because he wins most of the time. He may have a strategy that falls outside the concept of -EV? At this point in time, I believe MD, until it's proven otherwise.
All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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Thanks for this post from:
AxelWolfFTB
April 3rd, 2021 at 6:02:30 AM permalink
Quote: Wellbush

I have already spelt out in numerous posts in this thread, how my strategy deals with streaks.

Really? It doesn't!
Quote:

I also don't currently condone using my strategy until I have understood -EV to its fullest.

Progress.
Quote:

As for MDawg, I don't think users should automatically assume he's bogus because he wins most of the time. He may have a strategy that falls outside the concept of -EV? At this point in time, I believe MD, until it's proven otherwise.

This thread is not about MDawg. We have quite enough threads about that User Id! If you wish to discuss his credibility, do so in the 'Adventures of MDawg' thread. Thank you.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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April 3rd, 2021 at 9:32:21 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Really? It doesn't!Progress.
This thread is not about MDawg. We have quite enough threads about that User Id! If you wish to discuss his credibility, do so in the 'Adventures of MDawg' thread. Thank you.

You may be on your way to GMOAT.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wellbush
Wellbush
Joined: Mar 23, 2021
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April 4th, 2021 at 6:42:47 AM permalink
Quote: Wellbush

I have already spelt out in numerous posts in this thread, how my strategy deals with streaks. I also don't currently condone using my strategy until I have understood -EV to its fullest.

As for MDawg, I don't think users should automatically assume he's bogus because he wins most of the time. He may have a strategy that falls outside the concept of -EV? At this point in time, I believe MD, until it's proven otherwise.



I can't see posts from AW. I've blocked him/her
All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
Wellbush
Wellbush
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April 23rd, 2021 at 11:39:53 AM permalink
In response to the following, 146:

I wouldn't mind snorting some pixie dust after reading that long post that I just responded to. If I didn't previously have a drinking problem, a nice double of Bombay Sapphire neat would also help.

I can assure you that the mathematical models won't seem so, "Theoretical," once you have lost all of your non-theoretical money.

Or, do you only play with theoretical money?

I'm not into arguments, irrelevant questions, derision, but I'll answer your long post in due course. WB
All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
Zcore13
Zcore13
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April 23rd, 2021 at 11:49:18 AM permalink
Hilarious that he blocks (but will still read this a pretend he didnt) posts from people that understand math and can prove his theories as ridiculous.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Wellbush
Wellbush
Joined: Mar 23, 2021
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April 23rd, 2021 at 12:02:17 PM permalink
Hello ZC. Feeling BLOCKED today? 😃
All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
Mission146
Mission146
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Thanks for this post from:
Wellbush
April 23rd, 2021 at 12:46:31 PM permalink
Quote: Wellbush



I'm not into arguments, irrelevant questions, derision, but I'll answer your long post in due course. WB



I'll be here, at least sooner or later, when you do. I sometimes don't appear for a week, or two, or three at a time...so don't take it as a personal slight if that happens by way of pure coincidence.

Anyway, you'll have a good chance of winning this debate. You've already started off by prohibiting the things that I am very good at. That said, I shall try my best.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Wellbush
Wellbush
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
April 23rd, 2021 at 12:50:56 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I'll be here, at least sooner or later, when you do. I sometimes don't appear for a week, or two, or three at a time...so don't take it as a personal slight if that happens by way of pure coincidence.

Anyway, you'll have a good chance of winning this debate. You've already started off by prohibiting the things that I am very good at. That said, I shall try my best.



Yes, I get the joke. I'll admit it's funny.
All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.

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