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Wellbush
Wellbush
Joined: Mar 23, 2021
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 824
March 24th, 2021 at 3:47:07 PM permalink
I would think that it's quite reasonable to have a mature discussion on this website (which I think you've previously stated), rather than a belittling one, about the topic at hand.

Firstly, when ties are removed from the overall BJ game, the house has a winning margin of 4%, not 0.4%.

I admit I could be wrong about the Fibonacci betting strategy, but I'm not convinced that I don't have a decent point. So let's get practical:

Bet amount ($); Winner (P-player, D-dealer); Running total ($);

1. 50 P 50
2. 50 D 0
3. 80 D -80
4. 130 P 50
5. 50 P 100
6. 50 D 50
7. 80 D -30
8. 130 D -160
9. 210 D -370
10. 340 P -30
11. 130 D -160
12. 210 P 50
13. 80 D -30
14. 130 P 100

The bet amounts are taken from the Fibonacci sequence. The play is simplified (I've removed ties and doubling/splitting).

The play shows the dealer winning 8 times, to the player's 6 times. A dealer advantage of 7%. I also haven't added for the player bonuses from doubling and splitting. Yet, the player is up $100!
All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
Wellbush
Wellbush
Joined: Mar 23, 2021
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 824
March 24th, 2021 at 4:01:40 PM permalink
Actually the dealer advantage from wins losses in the above play is 14%, yet the player is up $100 without bonuses added.

And the normal dealer advantage in BJ is about 8% when ties are excluded, not 0.04%.
All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
  • Threads: 36
  • Posts: 2599
March 24th, 2021 at 4:01:56 PM permalink
Yes it is reasonable that any negative progression strategy, such as the Fibonacci one you've used, can come out ahead even in the long term. However one day there will be a losing streak, the trick is to get out before that happens.
https://www.casinonewsdaily.com/casino-strategies/negative-progression-betting-systems/
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 3713
March 24th, 2021 at 4:04:44 PM permalink
Quote: Wellbush

I would think that it's quite reasonable to have a mature discussion on this website (which I think you've previously stated), rather than a belittling one, about the topic at hand.

Firstly, when ties are removed from the overall BJ game, the house has a winning margin of 4%, not 0.4%.

I admit I could be wrong about the Fibonacci betting strategy, but I'm not convinced that I don't have a decent point. So let's get practical:

Bet amount ($); Winner (P-player, D-dealer); Running total ($);

1. 50 P 50
2. 50 D 0
3. 80 D -80
4. 130 P 50
5. 50 P 100
6. 50 D 50
7. 80 D -30
8. 130 D -160
9. 210 D -370
10. 340 P -30
11. 130 D -160
12. 210 P 50
13. 80 D -30
14. 130 P 100

The bet amounts are taken from the Fibonacci sequence. The play is simplified (I've removed ties and doubling/splitting).

The play shows the dealer winning 8 times, to the player's 6 times. A dealer advantage of 7%. I also haven't added for the player bonuses from doubling and splitting. Yet, the player is up $100!



You are wrong about just about everything you are saying and believe. This is not a forum where you can say you can win and you are believed and fawned over. Your audience here is math professionals, odds experts, game protection specialists, Casino GM's, Table Game Directors and successful game inventors.

Your system doesn't work. List the details and some of the people above will disprove it for you beyond a reasonable doubt. If you can't do that, somewhere else will be less frustrating and more pleasant for you.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 152
  • Posts: 20168
March 24th, 2021 at 4:18:49 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Your effort would be better spent gathering up and cashing in all your worldly goods, selling them, mortgaging to the hilt, and with your new-found bulletproof bankroll, take on the casinos, bankrupting them steadily..

A man after my own heart, I don't know how many times I have said something similar. I would upgrade/downgrade you to the 2nd WMOAT, but you seem to be the only MOD so the title is still yours.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
  • Threads: 36
  • Posts: 2599
March 24th, 2021 at 4:25:36 PM permalink
Quote: Wellbush

Actually the dealer advantage from wins losses in the above play is 14%, yet the player is up $100 without bonuses added.

And the normal dealer advantage in BJ is about 8% when ties are excluded, not 0.04%.

Based on simulations (10m shoes) using UK rules the House Edge was 0.48% and the
Wins - 45.181%
Loses - 52.452%
Even - 8.808%
BJacks - 4.578%
It adds up to more than 100% due to splits and doubles and reflect the number of units you come out ahead etc. on each hand.

You have to get to a count of over 6 before the number of wins+BJ hands exceed the number of losses. Of course the winning BJs are paying 1.5 so you're getting a 2% advantage.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1423
  • Posts: 24357
March 24th, 2021 at 4:38:40 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

gamblingforums.com



Thank you.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1423
  • Posts: 24357
March 24th, 2021 at 4:40:54 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

No need to send the OP to competing sites. What have they done to deserve that?

This site has the knowledge and experience to put these questions to rest. Consider it a public service to humanity.



Betting system players are nearly hopeless. No amount of math will convince them their system won't work. The only thing that does and will convince them is the eventual bankroll ruin they will eventually face.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 51
  • Posts: 6392
March 24th, 2021 at 4:41:27 PM permalink
Quote: Wellbush

I would think that it's quite reasonable to have a mature discussion on this website (which I think you've previously stated), rather than a belittling one, about the topic at hand.

Betamount ($)Winner (P-player, D-dealer)Running total ($)
1.50P50
2.50D0
3.80D-80
4.130P50
5.50P100
6.50D50
7.80D-30
8.130D-160
9.210D-370
10.340P-30
11.130D-160
12.210P50
13.80D-30
14.130P100



Never let it be said that I'm unhelpful
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 51
  • Posts: 6392
March 24th, 2021 at 4:44:04 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Betting system players are nearly hopeless. No amount of math will convince them their system won't work. The only thing that does and will convince them is the eventual bankroll ruin they will eventually face.

Hence my earnest advice
Quote:

Your effort would be better spent gathering up and cashing in all your worldly goods, selling them, mortgaging to the hilt, and with your new-found bulletproof bankroll, take on the casinos, bankrupting them steadily.

Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.

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