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Wellbush
Wellbush
Joined: Mar 23, 2021
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Thanks for this post from:
OnceDear
March 26th, 2021 at 7:16:29 AM permalink
For those that say: "Try your strategy at a real life casino," I couldn't agree more. My local has a minimum $15 bet requirement for BJ. I therefore calculate that I would need about $2,000 to allow for natural variation - the win/loss ratio that may swing against me in the initial play. As I live off welfare though (receiving the disability pension due to chronic fatigue), I probably won't be visiting a casino anytime soon. It is on my future plans though.

To all other naysayers though, like the one above, I have been testing my strategy on the everyday scenarios. That includes the situation you mention. This strategy still comes up trumps against the losing trends.
All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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March 26th, 2021 at 7:31:45 AM permalink
I play CD homegames I bought last decade. They may start me off with $5,000, and one way or another I try to get to over $100K. That usually means playing hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands of hands, rolls, or spins. Slow that down to brick & mortar casino speeds, and my sessions could run weeks or months. It may only take an hour or two to go from $10K to $100K, but it may only happen once every 3 months.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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March 26th, 2021 at 8:27:21 AM permalink
Quote: Wellbush

As I live off welfare though (receiving the disability pension due to chronic fatigue), I probably won't be visiting a casino anytime soon.



I have never heard of a Ďdisability pensioní? Is that from a private company or the government? Anyway, you were able to work out this system despite the fatigue, but now donít have the energy to take it to a casino? Or donít have the $2k you say you need?
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
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March 26th, 2021 at 9:05:40 AM permalink
Quote: Wellbush

To all other naysayers though, like the one above, I have been testing my strategy on the everyday scenarios.

Which is a worthless test. You'd need to play for thousands of hours to conclusively prove that the system actually works rather than just being lucky.

Saying your system is a winner is like saying you can choose some certain number of nickels and have the average be greater than 5¢. That's impossible, and it's why the math-literate know that you're wrong even without knowing the details of your system.

My article on betting systems gives four kinds of evidence for why betting systems can't beat the house.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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March 26th, 2021 at 11:13:31 AM permalink
Quote: Wellbush

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: Wellbush

I would think that it's quite reasonable to have a mature discussion on this website (which I think you've previously stated), rather than a belittling one, about the topic at hand.

Betamount ($)Winner (P-player, D-dealer)Running total ($)
1.50P50
2.50D0
3.80D-80
4.130P50
5.50P100
6.50D50
7.80D-30
8.130D-160
9.210D-370
10.340P-30
11.130D-160
12.210P50
13.80D-30
14.130P100



Wellbush. You know your system inside out. Please assist me with one simple worked example.
Redo this table where the player wins the first 8 games and loses the last 6.Maybe extend it to 15 hands where dealer wins the last 7


BetAmountWinnerRunning Total
150P50
250P100
350P150
450P200
550P250
650P300
750P350
850P400
950D350
1080D270
11130D140
12210D-70
13340D-410
14passpass-410
15Min. Bet 15D-425


I'll just leave things here for now, to allow for comments 😊



So there you had an ordinary enough scenario which triggered your 'woah up' situation. You had more player than dealer and managed to lose money. I suppose you wait until some predetermined event happens (who cares what?) and then lay another wager from your fibonacci sequence.... And if that is a win for dealer? You've just lost a lot more. Impossible? Not allowed by your algorithm?

Let's try a kinder scenario.
7 consecutive wins, 4 consecutive dealer wins and then a player win followed by 3 dealer wins.
Your 5 losses event is not triggered, you have more player wins than dealer wins. What's the outcome?
Is that sequence allowed by your scenario? Please fill in the ??? blanks.
BetAmountWinnerRunning Total
150P50
250P100
350P150
450P200
550P250
650P300
750P350
850D300
980?D220?
10130?D90?
11210?D-120?
12340?P220?
13???D???
14???D???
15???D???


Make an effort with the table formatting.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info/help/1-formatting-codes/
Last edited by: OnceDear on Mar 26, 2021
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
sabre
sabre
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
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March 26th, 2021 at 11:37:58 AM permalink
Quote: Wellbush


As I have already stated that I have been working on a bet strategy for some months now



It took you months to come up with a system that can be shown to be -EV in a couple sentences? That must be disappointing.
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
Dieter
March 26th, 2021 at 12:14:06 PM permalink
I've noticed a striking correlation between beilef in betting systems and poor grammar/spelling, which is exactly the kind of correlation we should expect. In fact, when my betting system challenge was open to the general public (rather than just to system sellers), poor grammar/spelling was the hallmark of the inquiries I got. This is a telling fact, to reasonable people, but of course it means nothing to betting system proponents, kind of by definition.

Quote: Wellbush

From one angle this makes sense, but from a mathematical stand point there appears to be a way, just that no-one has unlocked the key to do it...

I don't mind being the laughing stock for now, because I've been putting my strategy to the test lately...

I get that actuarist's state that mathematically it's impossible to overcome the house edge....

My new found strategy could be described as an algorithm.

A negative betting strategy benefits from the fact that the player requires less wins than the dealer to come out in front (Fibonacci).

Ah, some of you are getting a little more straight forward....

I'm not a mathematician or an actuarist...

Simply because the longer this attempt by so called experts...

So I'm not gonna unequivocally state that it finally has been achieved until the strategy has been fully tested, and/or it's underlying construct debunked.

It's glaringly obvious what many poster's views in the forums are.

Last edited by: MichaelBluejay on Apr 26, 2021
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
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March 26th, 2021 at 12:19:57 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Betting system players are nearly hopeless. No amount of math will convince them their system won't work. The only thing that does and will convince them is the eventual bankroll ruin they will eventually face.

I doubt most are convinced by even that.

Quote: Wellbush

I haven't heard anyone with a practical basis as to why my simple logic is wrong.

You can no longer say that truthfully, because here's four kinds of evidence, although any one of the first three is more than sufficient.

Quote: Wellbush

I haven't had a losing session since I stumbled upon the strategy.

So what? Short term results are meaningless. Do what I say in my article: hire a computer programmer, or learn enough programming to code it yourself, and you'll see that your system is a loser.

Quote: Wellbush

I think I've done everything you and everyone else suggests I do.

No you haven't. You haven't (1) considered the evidence against you, and (2) run a test through a computer.
Wellbush
Wellbush
Joined: Mar 23, 2021
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March 26th, 2021 at 2:51:04 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

Which is a worthless test. You'd need to play for thousands of hours to conclusively prove that the system actually works rather than just being lucky.

Saying your system is a winner is like saying you can choose some certain number of nickels and have the average be greater than 5¢. That's impossible, and it's why the math-literate know that you're wrong even without knowing the details of your system.

My article on betting systems gives four kinds of evidence for why betting systems can't beat the house.



Ah!.......MR BLUEJAY!!!!!!! At last, someone with a bit of clout! Now I notice there are a number of different accusers jumping on my bandwagon!!!! This is getting very interesting! I hope there are thousands of readers now, tuning into this thread. It's starting to make for one very interesting read. And so it should. I have now read (probably on Mr ......'s website) that no-one has come up with a negative progression strategy in CENTURIES (not decades!), that can beat the house!!!! So was there a negative progression strategy that won prior to the centuries ago??? Well, it seems not!!!! It seems the naysayers think that by saying "centuries" they mean NEVER!!!! Because, after all, casinos and the game of BJ has probably been around for just centuries.

All right then you very highly intelligent mathematical beings (although I note Mr Buejay doesn't seem to have any mathematical qualifications), I'll start to debunk your so-called proof of my undoings (and by definition, your own undoings that all the readers here can enjoy laughing at 😆) one by one. Although, I don't see why I should, coz you naysayers are belittling me even though your own logic is flawed!

So I'll start with the above post first. Yes, it's a worthless test indeed. Agreed, but OnceDear thought to disprove me with it!!! He's such a clever chap working as an "admin" here, I thought I may as well come down to his level. Now OnceDear thinks that he shouldn't even give my strategy a moment's thought. And, says OnceDear, there are billions of people on the planet and who've gone before us, yet no-one's come up with a winning negative progression betting strategy!!!!

Leaving OnceDear aside for the moment, though I'll probably be back to bring him to his knees later on, I'll continue with Mr Bluejay!! Yes, the short sample was a worthless test. But, if you read through the thread, you will see I was using it as an example as to how the Fibonacci sequence can work, not as an example of a billion hands showing statistical outcomes (although I would be more than happy to let my system be tested over thousands of dealt hands!).

So that brings us to Mr Bluejay's next comment where it appears (although the logic is not quite clear) he thinks I make certain statistical outcomes about my system. Where have I done that Mr Bluejay, or have I read your intentions wrong? Let me be entirely clear once more - my only claim is that I have stumbled across a negative progression strategy that seems to beat the house. And now, the more I tell people about it, the more the mathematicians and others are looking #$@% for stating for (gulp) decades that negative progression systems simply don't work, and are a mathematical impossibility!!!!!

So, I haven't claimed any average, but I am claiming that my system is until now, producing a profit. And, to be clear, the profits keep spiraling upwards!!!! I am not, and have not ever, had a losing session with this system!!!! And there are no tricks. No shuffle analysis. I just play BJ on free software. And no, I don't pick and choose which site I go on. I'm not playing on bogus sites or some kind of variation of the game of BJ. I'm not bluffing. The strategy does NOT come undone after thousands of hands. The longer I play, the more I win!!!!

And, if you haven't worked it out yet, it's why everyone's starting to realise that possibly for decades, mathematicians have been wrong about negative progression betting strategies!!!!!

So, Mr Bluejay, apart from your article on betting systems (I'll no doubt get to the article and rip that apart too, in forthcoming posts), have I rebutted everything else in the above post? Or did I miss something?

I see someone else asking about my personal status....I am Australian. This does not mean, naysayers, that somehow I am or my system is, flawed. If naysayers have an itch, make sure it addresses the situation at hand, front on! Not some flawed logic like Mr Bluejay's assertion that my English shows I lack credibility!!! That should at least lower Mr Bluejay's credibility down quite a few rungs, though!!!

So I get what's called the Disability Support Pension in Australia. It's a government welfare payment. Keeps me off the street. But, doesn't allow me to ordinarily raise $2,000 to trial a strategy at a casino.

Finally, as a new registered member here, I am limited in the number of posts I can submit each day. So just be aware of why I may not post more frequently. I'm sure I will continue to tear apart the naysayers posts!!!! Just be patient. I'm sure plenty of you will enjoy me ripping them completely apart, SLOWLY!!!!!
All persons reading my posts gamble at their own risk, as I do. I don't ordinarily dispute math. I may dispute math I don't understand, or if I think it's faulty. I am not a conspiracy theorist.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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March 26th, 2021 at 3:03:11 PM permalink
Quote: Wellbush



Finally, as a new registered member here, I am limited in the number of posts I can submit each day.

I'm not so sure about that.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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