Craps Strategy Investment Opportunity?
Quote: guido111Those numbers show over $21 per hour played.
Then he has to split that 3 ways, himself, his investors and more for the bankroll.
I think his "Base" betting the first 2 weeks is to see if he can stand the grind and make it through each session still in one piece.
It is now Monday and we should see Monday's results tonight.
Didn't he say that he had one big losing day--I think it was at the El Cortez?
Quote: ElectricDreamsYou calling me a simpleton, nope27? My sensibilities are offended!
Yes, we are all simpletons. some more than others.
Quote: ElectricDreams
Also, what does your craps system have to do with my opinion about E. Clifton Davis' Baccarat system anyway?
Absolutely nothing!...
Just like your post has to do with this thread.
IF you or anyone else wants to hijack and/or make comments about another topic, please start a new thread.
It makes it so much easier to follow a current thread if we all keep it to the same topic.
And your new thread could even be more popular than the current thread. A win-win situation.
I do admit I have broken that rule a few times, even NOW, so no hard feelings here.
Quote: ElectricDreamsFurthermore, your system is a good way to hedge bets, I guess. I'll stick with pass line and odds, because I do like living in my perfect, simple, world, thankyouverymuch.
Oh, my system is not a hedge system. It is not that simple. What is simple is the two betting situations will have every wager win on a come out 7. A winner 7.
You are very welcome.
Quote: mkl654321Didn't he say that he had one big losing day--I think it was at the El Cortez?
He was down as much as $650, but rode it back up to show a small, sixty-something dollar gain when the "day" ended.
Quote: mkl654321Didn't he say that he had one big losing day--I think it was at the El Cortez?
I thought that also at first
Oct 22nd:
"Progress Update....
First night in Vegas sees positive results. My "Base" Strategy is designed to be slow and effective, risking a minimal amount of bankroll. My target earnings for a "Base" Session is only $150. Expected time commitment is an average of 3-4 hours.
October 21. 7:45pm - 11:30pm. El Cortez Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings $162"
a nice running total table at his blog would be a better idea.
We could all find it fast and easy. It would be simple!
Please start a nice progress table in your Blog here at the Wizard of Vegas.
It is free and should be easy to do.
nope27 has a nice example you could use
You can keep the table to just the stats but use your posts here to give all of us the juicy details.
Good luck!
Quote: nope27
Try to code and understand this one:
As soon as the cumulative frequency for the #7 for 4 rolls (51.77%) is 2 standard deviations or more (but less than 2.5 standard deviations) below the expected mean and the next roll is a come-out roll. Then Lay the 4 and 10 for $40 each , Lay the 5&9 for $60 each, Lay the 6&8 for $60 each. Bet $25 on the pass line.
OR...even easier
1. What does that even mean?
1.a. The 51.77% figure you insert is the probability of at least one seven rolling in 4 rolls of two dice. It just is; it doesn't have a standard deviation.
1.b. There is a mean and a standard deviation of the NUMBER of sevens rolled in four rolls: .666667 and .745339.
1.c. So, even one SD below the expected mean is a negative number; it's a very skewed distribution.
In any case, any bet made on the basis of past rolls is based on the infamous Gambler's Fallacy.
Quote: nope27As soon as the cumulative frequency for the #7 for 4 rolls (51.77%) is more than 2.5 standard deviations below the expected mean and the next roll is a come-out roll and the last roll was a #7. Then Lay the 4 and 10 for $100 each , Lay the 5&9 for $120 each, Lay the 6&8 for $150. Bet $50 on the pass line.
If the last roll was a seven, that's MORE than the expected mean number of sevens in four rolls, no?
Quote: nope27after $5 pass line lost once, bet $10 on the pass line.
Must be nice to live in a perfect, simple world.
It's "Wink" Martingale!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Quote: guido111Calling 98steps.
Please start a nice progress table in your Blog here at the Wizard of Vegas.
It is free and should be easy to do.
nope27 has a nice example you could use
You can keep the table to just the stats but use your posts here to give all of us the juicy details.
Good luck!
nope27's table is great. I wonder is 98 would also post his high and low bankroll positions for each day.
Quote: Ayecarumbanope27's table is great. I wonder is 98 would also post his high and low bankroll positions for each day.
A great idea!
Ive got a feeling, a feeling deep inside, oh yeah!...
(for all you Beatle fans)
that 98steps will keep that info for his upcoming book.
Look at the interest he has in his current experiment.
Quote: goatcabin1. What does that even mean?
1.a. The 51.77% figure you insert is the probability of at least one seven rolling in 4 rolls of two dice. It just is; it doesn't have a standard deviation.
1.b. There is a mean and a standard deviation of the NUMBER of sevens rolled in four rolls: .666667 and .745339.
1.c. So, even one SD below the expected mean is a negative number; it's a very skewed distribution.
In any case, any bet made on the basis of past rolls is based on the infamous Gambler's Fallacy.
If the last roll was a seven, that's MORE than the expected mean number of sevens in four rolls, no?
It's "Wink" Martingale!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Do not take me as being rude, but I will start a new thread so I can discuss your questions. We are getting way off-topic.
I have no time for this now as I am visiting in the US.
please have patience.
Quote: nope27Yes, we are all simpletons. some more than others.
Absolutely nothing!...
Just like your post has to do with this thread.
IF you or anyone else wants to hijack and/or make comments about another topic, please start a new thread.
It makes it so much easier to follow a current thread if we all keep it to the same topic.
And your new thread could even be more popular than the current thread. A win-win situation.
I do admit I have broken that rule a few times, even NOW, so no hard feelings here.
This obsession with making sure every single post stays on the thread topic has to be one of the more unique aspects of this forum. I've never seen it anywhere else to this degree. If I honestly felt that my post was going to start a long discussion about E. Clifton Davis' Baccarat system, than I would have started a new thread. I felt that my comment was an anecdote, at best, and wouldn't garner many (or any) posts regarding it, so I left it in.
And yes, you're just making it worse, but you realize that so whatever.
Quote: nope27
Oh, my system is not a hedge system. It is not that simple. What is simple is the two betting situations will have every wager win on a come out 7. A winner 7.
You are very welcome.
You're betting both sides of the dice - it's a hedge system. Additionally, as goatcabin mentions, it's also a system that relies on the Gambler's Fallacy.
Quote: nope27It appears 98 is posting daily results.
October 21. 7:45pm - 11:30pm. El Cortez Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings $162
October 22. 9:30am - 4:15pm. Eastside Cannery, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $60.
October 23. 1:30pm - 4:30pm. Eastside Cannery, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $153.
October 23. 5:45pm - 5:30am. Boulder Station, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $175.
October 24: I am taking Sunday OFF
$550 is the total gross earnings to date as posted by 98steps.
3 days of results.
and at one point his bankroll was 25% down to $650. That shows a total bankroll of $2600.
98steps seems to be testing the water.
Is it too hot??
Too cold???
This "Craps System" was a previously tested, over 200 sessions, a consistent winner with a bankroll of $5000 and a $700 average session win goal?
I think my dog hit the remote and I'm watching a different movie.
This thread is now past the insane marker.
Ready to push over the 1.41% Hoax thread.
Quote: MichaelBluejay
Again, here's a link to the revised rules I'm proposing, and soliciting feedback on.
By the way, notorious system-peddler E. Clifton Davis said last year that he would accept my challenge, but never did. Here's the link to his forum page. Note that it's screwy and the posts are listed in reverse chronological order, so you have to start reading from the bottom.
http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5225
The posts seem to be in proper order to me.
Again, no one can agree on exact challenge rules.
They all agree to disagree.
Since the Wizard had one true challenge taker and Mr Bluejay has had none to date, why continue?
Really, what is the point in proving someone right or wrong in regards to a gambling system?
I say we attack those believers in dice control.
"Pay me to learn dice control!"
"Buy my new dice control book. The only way to win at Craps"
Why are we letting those jokers go untouched?
Buyer beware.
Who really cares and why?
Mr. Madoff made-off with billions, did not affect me one bit.
Buyer beware.
The US Government wastes taxpayers money each and every year.
Lets put our efforts there.
Buyer Beware!
I still vote to close this thread.
I feel certain that the "system" under discussion just has to lose in the long term. But I would not fault 98steps for not posting daily high and low positions. During a session at the crap table, I try to keep track of where I stand, but it is often quite difficult: My rack looks a little low but I have a bunch of chips on the table -- am I up or down? By how much? If you really wanted to be certain of exactly what your max and min positions were throughout the session or day, you would likely devote most of your time and attention to counting chips rather than managing your wagers. I'd cut 98 some slack on this particular point.Quote: Ayecarumbanope27's table is great. I wonder is 98 would also post his high and low bankroll positions for each day.
Quote: DocI feel certain that the "system" under discussion just has to lose in the long term. But I would not fault 98steps for not posting daily high and low positions. During a session at the crap table, I try to keep track of where I stand, but it is often quite difficult: My rack looks a little low but I have a bunch of chips on the table -- am I up or down? By how much? If you really wanted to be certain of exactly what your max and min positions were throughout the session or day, you would likely devote most of your time and attention to counting chips rather than managing your wagers. I'd cut 98 some slack on this particular point.
I understand how hard it can be to keep track. However, it was my impression that 98's system is very disciplined, so I expect that closely tracking the total bankroll would be a natural part of his play. it is not a demand, just a request to see if the variance he encounters fits with everyone's expectations.
As for whether chips on the table are + or -, If the -$650 report included them, then please keep including them. If not, continue to not include them. Thanks 98! We are all looking forward to your next report.
Quote: AyecarumbaI understand how hard it can be to keep track. However, it was my impression that 98's system is very disciplined, so I expect that closely tracking the total bankroll would be a natural part of his play. it is not a demand, just a request to see if the variance he encounters fits with everyone's expectations.
Yes, tracking the dice rolls, winning and losing bets at a craps table takes a good amount of discipline. I can second that.
I have not seen 98steps in action but hope to after Nov 1st.
Quote: Ayecarumba
As for whether chips on the table are + or -, If the -$650 report included them, then please keep including them. If not, continue to not include them. Thanks 98! We are all looking forward to your next report.
Keep the updates coming 98steps.
I too like the idea of you placing a results table in your Blog, just the daily results and telling more about the sessions in your posts.
yesterday was a particualrly brutal day. 2 positive easy sessions. One nightmare. Please forgive the delay in update, it was necessary for me to communicate with my investors.
10/25 11am-11:30am. Main Street Station, Downtown. Gross Earnings +156. 1 Shooter, Never lost a wager.
10/25 12:30pm - 2:15pm. Golden Gate Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings +152. Low Bank -126.
10/25 4pm - 2am. Stratosphere, ???? (Where is Strat Classified as being?). LOSS -2316. Pass Line -43 bets. All wager groups behind considerably.
I have been having meetings with investors today. Final decision is to continue. I offered to return balance of bankroll to investors, declined. I offered to absorb 75% of loss, declined. Investor acknowledged that she was fully aware of the risk involved. We discussed previously that losses WOULD happen. We both just hoped to get more sessions under our belt prior to the loss.
We move forward with high hopes that the next losing session will not show soon.
Quote: 98stepsThere will be one session today, location still to be determined. I will make an effort to review the thread and respond to the questions and comments tonite and tomorrow.
98steps,
You were looking for investors at the beginning of your thread.
You found them
You had a 95% win rate, over 200 sessions with a $5000 bank and $600 average session wins.
You are doing everything WRONG!
Why are you now doing a "Base" play?
$2600 bankroll and $150 session win. That is nothing what you have been doing before.
I have seen this over a 30 year period at the craps table.
Someone has a system, that takes discipline and proper bankroll and bets.
You seem to have strayed away from your earlier successes.
What gives?
There is a balance between bet sizes, bankroll and win goal and your current style of play is nothing near your so called "consistant winning" style of play.
Well, better it happened sooner than later.
A Big wakeup call.
| Date/Time/Location | Day | Session Hours | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 21. 7:45pm - 11:30pm. El Cortez Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings $162 | Thurs | 3.75 | $162 |
| October 22. 9:30am - 4:15pm. Eastside Cannery, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $60. | Fri | 6.75 | $60 |
| October 23. 1:30pm - 4:30pm. Eastside Cannery, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $153. | Sat | 3 | $153 |
| October 23. 5:45pm - 5:30am. Boulder Station, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $175. | Sat | 11.75 | $175 |
| October 24: I am taking Sunday OFF | Sun | 0 | 0 |
| October 25: 11am-11:30am. Main Street Station, Downtown. Gross Earnings +156 | Mon | 0.5 | $156 |
| October 25: 12:30pm - 2:15pm. Golden Gate Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings +152 | Mon | 1.75 | $152 |
| October 25: 4pm - 2am. Stratosphere, STRIP, LOSS -2316 | Mon | 10 | ($2,316) |
| . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . |
| . | Totals | 37.5 | ($1,458) |
Quote: MichaelBluejayIt's not a session bankroll, it's a lifetime bankroll.
Also, I think you're missing the whole point of the challenge. It's to disprove the run-of-the-mill claims that someone has a winning system -- especially ones that are being *sold* as winning systems. Have you ever heard of a system seller saying, "I've got this great system I can sell you, but it requires a $100,000 bankroll"? Anyone who's got that kind of cash lying around is already wealthy and has no need for a winning betting system.
This does bring up a good point, though. For betting systems that are sold, how much of a starting bankroll do the sellers claim is required? Here's what I could dig up, which wasn't much. This leads me to believe that the $3000 I'm thinking of specifying is generous. What other system bankroll requirements can you all find?
* $29(!): http://www.angelfire.com/ca/rskubic/ ($25 cost)
* $50(!): http://www.gambling-systems.com/roulette.html ($35 cost)
* $500 per session (total not specified): http://www.68crapsstrategy.com/ ($68 cost)
* 20 units per session (total not specified): http://www.kanzen.com/system.html ($30 cost)
* "Very small bankroll" http://www.spin4profits.com/ ($47 cost)
* Not specified: https://ssl4.westserver.net/gambling-systems.com/order.html ($20 cost)
* Not specified: http://www.maxprofit.ws/ ($47 cost)
* Not specified: http://www.roulettekiller.com/ ($49.95 cost)
* Not specified: http://www.davelessnau.com/ ($94 cost)
* Not specified: http://www.thedoverpro.com/craps.htm ($9.95 cost)
As a side note, the purveyors of these systems should really be prosecuted for fraud. Years ago I wrote to one Attorney General about a system seller, and the Wizard offered to be an expert witness, but I never heard back from the AG's office. I think the take away is that the government is willing to tolerate small-scale crooks.
Just a quick note---Despite my confidence in my own strategies, I also agree that virtually everything being sold as a system is most probably garbage. I have only seen a couple which others have shown me while asking my opinion. I have never seen anything from anyone else that wasn't full of holes. For the record, I am NOT in general a "system supporter". In my opinion, anyone selling something as "fool-proof", "guaranteed winner", or any of the other tag lines they use to indicate that you can not lose with their information, is merely attempting to fleece someone.
Quote: 98stepsProgress Update.......
I have been having meetings with investors today. Final decision is to continue.
We move forward with high hopes that the next losing session will not show soon.
I agree with 7winner.
You are not playing with your full bankroll and session win goal as you started out in this thread.
From the table above, you still must have $3500 left.
Go for it!
Your FIRST post:
"Thru fairly extensive testing it is trending at 95% effectiveness, winning between 500-800 (average win 700) on 19 out of 20 sessions, losing +/-4500 on the one session."
2 winning sessions back to back puts your bankroll back in the black!
Go for it!
Quote: 98stepsJust a quick note---Despite my confidence in my own strategies, I also agree that virtually everything being sold as a system is most probably garbage. I have only seen a couple which others have shown me while asking my opinion. I have never seen anything from anyone else that wasn't full of holes. For the record, I am NOT in general a "system supporter". In my opinion, anyone selling something as "fool-proof", "guaranteed winner", or any of the other tag lines they use to indicate that you can not lose with their information, is merely attempting to fleece someone.
What in the world happened to get you stomped so badly? Don't you have a stop-loss?
Quote: 98stepsI acknowledge that over the long run, my wins vs. losses would approximate 50/50, not that profit would. Over 1000 such coin toss wagers, is it reasonable to anticipate approximately 500 wins and 500 losses?
I see where 98steps has gone wrong in his betting thinking.
He must have skipped over this in his studies and teachings.
Oh so wrong!
Only 2.52% or 1 in 39.6 groups of 1,000 coin tosses.
500/500 is the expected value.
standard deviation is 15.81, so
68% of the time you can expect between 484-516
95% between 468-532
99.7% between 452-548
The Law of Large Numbers or law of averages states that the percentages will get closer and closer to expectation, NOT the absolute difference.
From the book:Understanding Probability. by Henk Tijms page 17 ( an excellent book!)
"It is the case, however, that as the number of tosses increases, the fractions (percentages) of heads
and tails should be about equal, but that is guaranteed only in the long run.
In the theory of probability, this fact is known as the law of large numbers.
Just as the name implies, this law only says something about the game after a large
number of tosses.
This law does not imply that the absolute difference between
the numbers of heads and tails should oscillate close to zero. On the contrary.
For games of chance, such as coin-tossing, it is even typical, as we shall see, that
for long time periods, either heads or tails will remain constantly in the lead,
with the absolute difference between the numbers of heads and tails tending to
become larger and larger."
Quote: 98steps10/25 4pm - 2am. Stratosphere, ???? (Where is Strat Classified as being?). LOSS -2316. Pass Line -43 bets. All wager groups behind considerably.
More clues to 98steps system
(The pass line -43 bets.)
Sure looks like 98steps is a believer in the closeness of the absolute difference in a series of trials.
This spells out total failure for his system.
Pass Line with odds and Buy 4/10 with progressions are not a 50/50 bet.
Time for that refresher course on the Law of Large Numbers...
and while 98 you are at that, look into what is know as a "Random Walk".
You have $3500 bankroll left!
Go for it!
Quote: mkl654321What in the world happened to get you stomped so badly? Don't you have a stop-loss?
Quote: 98stepsProvided that he and I are able to come to agreement regarding the restraints to be applied to the challenge, i.e. odds, vig, and the application of my stop-loss requirements, I most certainly will accept his challenge. I will be accepting his challenge at the offered level of $1000 to $10,000.
I have every confidence that my system will bear out over the long run, provided that real world restraints are in place. It is my intention to use his $10,000 to bankroll my Vegas endeavers, and intend to publish my system in 1-3 years.
looks like 98 uses a stop-loss.
may have saved his bankroll
Quote: mkl654321What in the world happened to get you stomped so badly? Don't you have a stop-loss?
I recall the system requried "sit-outs". It was not specified for the non-programmer's what the conditions were for sitting-out, nor starting up again.
I have not played at the Stratophere in several years. Is there anything odd about their game? That was a nice "one and done" hit at Main Street. Too bad, you could not build upon it.
Quote: AyecarumbaI recall the system requried "sit-outs". It was not specified for the non-programmer's what the conditions were for sitting-out, nor starting up again.
I have not played at the Stratophere in several years. Is there anything odd about their game? That was a nice "one and done" hit at Main Street. Too bad, you could not build upon it.
The Strat does have Regular Craps and Crapless Craps.
I hope he knew the difference.
Quote: 7winner98steps,
You were looking for investors at the beginning of your thread.
You found them
You had a 95% win rate, over 200 sessions with a $5000 bank and $600 average session wins.
You are doing everything WRONG!
Why are you now doing a "Base" play?
$2600 bankroll and $150 session win. That is nothing what you have been doing before.
I see your point 7winner.
In programming WinCraps for 98steps, 98 used a $5000 bankroll and a $800 win goal. (That is why he was able to average $700 per win session)
He has a Stop loss of $xxxx, so he is prepared to lose big.
There are other session stop points depending on the outcomes of the table.
I am interested and also confused why he is following, as he says a "Base" strategy.
Just cutting the numbers in half, should be a $2500 bankroll with a $400 win goal. That should be giving him a $350 average per session win.
I guess we have to hold tight and wait for his replies.
Quote: 7winner
Date/Time/Location Day Session Hours Result October 21. 7:45pm - 11:30pm. El Cortez Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings $162 Thurs 3.75 $162 October 22. 9:30am - 4:15pm. Eastside Cannery, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $60. Fri 6.75 $60 October 23. 1:30pm - 4:30pm. Eastside Cannery, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $153. Sat 3 $153 October 23. 5:45pm - 5:30am. Boulder Station, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $175. Sat 11.75 $175 October 24: I am taking Sunday OFF Sun 0 0 October 25: 11am-11:30am. Main Street Station, Downtown. Gross Earnings +156 Mon 0.5 $156 October 25: 12:30pm - 2:15pm. Golden Gate Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings +152 Mon 1.75 $152 October 25: 4pm - 2am. Stratosphere, STRIP, LOSS -2316 Mon 10 ($2,316) . . . . . . . . . Totals 37.5 ($1,458)
Nice table.
Not so nice results.
Quote: nope27
Try to code and understand this one:
As soon as the cumulative frequency for the #7 for 4 rolls (51.77%) is 2 standard deviations or more (but less than 2.5 standard deviations) below the expected mean (edit: of the cumulative frequency for the #7 for 4 rolls (51.77%))
and the next roll is a come-out roll. Then Lay the 4 and 10 for $40 each , Lay the 5&9 for $60 each, Lay the 6&8 for $60 each. Bet $25 on the pass line.
OR...even easier
As soon as the cumulative frequency for the #7 for 4 rolls (51.77%) is more than 2.5 standard deviations below the expected mean (edit: of the cumulative frequency for the #7 for 4 rolls (51.77%))
and the next roll is a come-out roll and the last roll was a #7. (edit: meaning that while the last roll was a 7 but the cumulative frequency for the #7 for 4 rolls is STILL more than 2.5 standard deviations below the expected mean of the cumulative frequency for the #7 for 4 rolls (51.77%))...
Then Lay the 4 and 10 for $100 each , Lay the 5&9 for $120 each, Lay the 6&8 for $150. Bet $50 on the pass line.
What is this?
I also see goatcabin asked the same question.
You start a new thread with this, my friend, and you will find out how your understanding of English is not as good as you think.
You will become even more frustrated with "Us Americans".
Since I know WHAT you are trying to say and see what you have TRIED to say, oh my.
My only advise, if you want some, is not to add the "standard deviation" into the equation. Everyone knows what SD is, you are using it in such a different way.
98steps, have your investors seen this thread?
Quote: AyecarumbaDoes the Stratosphere have a nice steakhouse? I hope 98 asked for a comp.
That kind of action (not to mention, that kind of bloodbath) ought to get a free meal or two. And FWIW, the value of any comps should be figured into the total return of 98craps' system.
Quote: foxfan20Kinda random question.
98steps, have your investors seen this thread?
Quote: 98stepsProgress Update.......
yesterday was a particualrly brutal day. 2 positive easy sessions. One nightmare. Please forgive the delay in update, it was necessary for me to communicate with my investors.
10/25 11am-11:30am. Main Street Station, Downtown. Gross Earnings +156. 1 Shooter, Never lost a wager.
10/25 12:30pm - 2:15pm. Golden Gate Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings +152. Low Bank -126.
10/25 4pm - 2am. Stratosphere, ???? (Where is Strat Classified as being?). LOSS -2316. Pass Line -43 bets. All wager groups behind considerably.
I have been having meetings with investors today. Final decision is to continue. I offered to return balance of bankroll to investors, declined. I offered to absorb 75% of loss, declined. Investor acknowledged that she was fully aware of the risk involved. We discussed previously that losses WOULD happen. We both just hoped to get more sessions under our belt prior to the loss.
We move forward with high hopes that the next losing session will not show soon.
Quote: guido111Quote: nope27It appears 98 is posting daily results.
Date/Time/Location Day Session Hours Result October 21. 7:45pm - 11:30pm. El Cortez Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings $162 Thurs 3.75 $162 October 22. 9:30am - 4:15pm. Eastside Cannery, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $60. Fri 6.75 $60 October 23. 1:30pm - 4:30pm. Eastside Cannery, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $153. Sat 3 $153 October 23. 5:45pm - 5:30am. Boulder Station, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $175. Sat 11.75 $175 October 24.I am taking Sunday OFF Sun 0 0 October 25.Coming Soon Mon Totals 25.25 $550
Those numbers show over $21 per hour played.
Then he has to split that 3 ways, himself, his investors and more for the bankroll.
I think his "Base" betting the first 2 weeks is to see if he can stand the grind and make it through each session still in one piece.
It is now Monday and we should see Monday's results tonight.
The Purpose of running the "Base" Sessions was merely to keep my primary investor's money busy while we wait on the others to complete deposits by Nov. 1st.
Prior to yesterday, I have never experienced the "Base" incurring a losing session. It is not my primary tool due to the great amount of time required to generate small returns.
Quote: Ayecarumbanope27's table is great. I wonder is 98 would also post his high and low bankroll positions for each day.
Session bankroll High and Low points per request:
Session 1: High +162, Low -25
Session 2: High +92, Low -653
Session 3: High +153, Low -225
Session 4: High +175, Low -1217
Quote: DocI feel certain that the "system" under discussion just has to lose in the long term. But I would not fault 98steps for not posting daily high and low positions. During a session at the crap table, I try to keep track of where I stand, but it is often quite difficult: My rack looks a little low but I have a bunch of chips on the table -- am I up or down? By how much? If you really wanted to be certain of exactly what your max and min positions were throughout the session or day, you would likely devote most of your time and attention to counting chips rather than managing your wagers. I'd cut 98 some slack on this particular point.
As part of my table management, I ALWAYS know exactly what my bankroll balance is, either positive or negative. It is just one bit of the information that i provide to my investors on a per session basis. Other counts that I track include +/- balance of each wager group, specific value of each wager made, and profit/loss per decision.
I will make an attempt to remember to post Bankroll Low as well as finish point going forward.
Quote: mkl654321What in the world happened to get you stomped so badly? Don't you have a stop-loss?
I walked into a brutal run of dice. in 8 hours there were 115 shooters, with only twice any shooter making 3 points. The pass line was -43 bets. Combined points made were 40 total with a combined total of 115 points missed. As I stated, it was a nightmare. It started bad and never got a repreive. I have NEVER seen a table run that cold for that long. I did not have well defined stop-loss measures in place on the Base system, as I had never, before Monday, experienced a losing session with it. Adjustments have already been made.
Quote: AyecarumbaI recall the system requried "sit-outs". It was not specified for the non-programmer's what the conditions were for sitting-out, nor starting up again.
I have not played at the Stratophere in several years. Is there anything odd about their game? That was a nice "one and done" hit at Main Street. Too bad, you could not build upon it.
The "sit-outs" were a modification designed specifically for use in the challenge. Their purpose was to approximate or similate the change of venue that I use when running my strategy live.
Quote: 98stepsI walked into a brutal run of dice. in 8 hours there were 115 shooters, with only twice any shooter making 3 points. The pass line was -43 bets. Combined points made were 40 total with a combined total of 115 points missed. As I stated, it was a nightmare. It started bad and never got a repreive. I have NEVER seen a table run that cold for that long. I did not have well defined stop-loss measures in place on the Base system, as I had never, before Monday, experienced a losing session with it. Adjustments have already been made.
Well, I've never seen a table run that cold for that long, either, simply because I've never stayed at a cold table for that long. It seems to be a weakness of your system that your losing sessions are longer than your winning ones, which means you plow on ahead (rather than stopping the session) in the belief that you will somehow be able to turn it around. And the progressive nature of your system means that you DO turn it around most of the time, but the fatal flaw is that when you DON'T, you get massacred.
At the risk of being repetitious, the above is exactly what is wrong with all progressive betting systems.
Quote: AyecarumbaDoes the Stratosphere have a nice steakhouse? I hope 98 asked for a comp.
I neglected to ask for dinner, when I finished and colored up I was so very frustrated and upset, that I took an aimless meander that led me into "naked city". Fortunately my mutterings, loud outbursts of invective, and flailing body language probably convinced all fo the predators that i was a crazy, mentally challenged individual with turrets and homicidal tendencies.....therefore, I eventually found myway back to the Strip intact.
As far as comps go, I did ask for and recieve one pack of cigarettes early in the session. When I asked for a second pack late, I was refused......
Quote: foxfan20Kinda random question.
98steps, have your investors seen this thread?
They have been informed of it's existence. I do not know whether or not they read it or follow it. My updates on here come only after I have communicated the information directly to them.
Quote: SOOPOOAdjustments have already been made? That to me says you are giving up on your original system and are trying a new system, just starting with a smaller bankroll since you have lost some of your original bankroll. Am I correct, 98steps? Anyway, this thread has fascinated me... keep up the posts...
The Base system I have been running this week is just a tool to keep my primary's money busy while we wait for the secondary invetors. The adjustments I mentioned are just stop-loss criteria added to my Base strategy.
The Full Spread strategy is scheduled to commence operation with a complete $5000 bankroll and $800 win goal between the first and third of November.
Quote: 98stepsI walked into a brutal run of dice. in 8 hours there were 115 shooters, with only twice any shooter making 3 points. The pass line was -43 bets. Combined points made were 40 total with a combined total of 115 points missed. As I stated, it was a nightmare. It started bad and never got a repreive. I have NEVER seen a table run that cold for that long. I did not have well defined stop-loss measures in place on the Base system, as I had never, before Monday, experienced a losing session with it. Adjustments have already been made.
In my 30 years dealing dice, I have seen much, much worse many, many, times.
The longer one is at a Craps table, the more things one will see that have never been seen before.
At least you do document your playing sessions.
Not that you need to know...
So 155 total points established.
EV of point winners: 63
SD is 6.11
3.76 SDs from expectation
Getting exactly 40 point winners out of 155 points established
0.0042% or 1 in 23,634.6
Quote: 7winnerIn my 30 years dealing dice, I have seen much, much worse many, many, times.
The longer one is at a Craps table, the more things one will see that have never been seen before.
At least you do document your playing sessions.
Not that you need to know...
So 155 total points established.
EV of point winners: 63
SD is 6.11
3.76 SDs from expectation
Getting exactly 40 point winners out of 155 points established
0.0042% or 1 in 23,634.6
Further documentation from the nightmare.........
point 6 or 8: 25 made 44 missed
point 5 or 9: 8 made 46 missed
point 4 or 10: 7 made 25 missed
come out 7: 47
come out 11: 6
come out 2/3: 16
come out 12: 5
Quote: guido111
This law does not imply that the absolute difference between
the numbers of heads and tails should oscillate close to zero. On the contrary.
For games of chance, such as coin-tossing, it is even typical, as we shall see, that
for long time periods, either heads or tails will remain constantly in the lead,
with the absolute difference between the numbers of heads and tails tending to
become larger and larger."
That is the most critical piece to understand if you want to overcome the typical intuitive misunderstanding that is the gambler's fallacy. As the number of trials grows, the difference between heads and tails also grows, even as the percentage of heads or tails converges on 50%. In actual numbers, the distribution becomes less likely to be exactly 50/50 over time, but more likely to be "close to it." (Edit: I'm not discussing the infinite random walk theorem that says it's 100% likely to reach every point on the line.)
Not understanding this aspect of randomness and betting in a way based on its opposite has led to the ruin of a great many gamblers. 98steps may not even be the latest.
Quote: 98stepsFurther documentation from the nightmare.........
point 6 or 8: 25 made 44 missed
point 5 or 9: 8 made 46 missed
point 4 or 10: 7 made 25 missed
come out 7: 47
come out 11: 6
come out 2/3: 16
come out 12: 5
Not a nightmare if you noticed the streaks and trends against what you were betting and just bet the don't pass. It does the same as the Pass Line.
Then you could have waited until the Pass Line could prove to you in the short run it could win as expected.
More craps players I have seen lose more money betting against losing streaks and trends. Just a fact of the game.
98steps totals
| Date/Time/Location | Day | Session Hours | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 21. 7:45pm - 11:30pm. El Cortez Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings $162 | Thurs | 3.75 | $162 |
| October 22. 9:30am - 4:15pm. Eastside Cannery, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $60. | Fri | 6.75 | $60 |
| October 23. 1:30pm - 4:30pm. Eastside Cannery, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $153. | Sat | 3 | $153 |
| October 23. 5:45pm - 5:30am. Boulder Station, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $175. | Sat | 11.75 | $175 |
| October 24: I am taking Sunday OFF | Sun | 0 | 0 |
| October 25: 11am-11:30am. Main Street Station, Downtown. Gross Earnings +156 | Mon | 0.5 | $156 |
| October 25: 12:30pm - 2:15pm. Golden Gate Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings +152 | Mon | 1.75 | $152 |
| October 25: 4pm - 2am. Stratosphere, STRIP, LOSS -2316 | Mon | 10 | ($2,316) |
| October 26: I am taking Tuesday OFF | Tues | 0 | 0 |
| October 27: coming soon | Wed | . | . |
| . | Totals | 37.5 | ($1,458) |
