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Aussie
Aussie
Joined: Dec 29, 2009
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September 26th, 2010 at 11:57:09 PM permalink
I take back what I said about this being the easiest money you will ever make. With the amount of nonsense that this guy is putting you through it could well be the hardest money you (might?) will ever make. lol
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
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September 27th, 2010 at 12:23:24 AM permalink
Yeah, actually, in his first email to me, he said something like, "According to your rules, what's an 'event'?" I said, "The word 'event' doesn't appear anywhere in my rules. You're using that term, not me."

He replies and says, "I'm sorry I misquoted you. I meant, what constitutes a 'turn'?"

Of course, the word "turn" doesn't appear anywhere in the rules, either.

I would love to post the system rules here so I can get some validation on how non-understandable they are (and not from "lack of formatting" or "because it's in outline format"), but 98 is trusting me to keep his system secret, and I take my responsibilities seriously.

Of course, in reality, posting it really wouldn't betray any secrets because no one could understand the system from the description anyway. And even if they could, the secret has no value, because it's just another losing betting system.

Anyway, I won't be upset if he decides to withdraw. He seems like a nice guy, and I'd hate to see him lose $1000. But you know, all of my attempts to discourage him might be making him think that I'm worried about losing my $10k (or $30k), and maybe that's making him even eager to accept. Also, maybe he thinks my abrasiveness and complaints are attempts to get him to take his business elsewhere, and that's encouraging him even more.

98, let's reset, no hard feelings. You've been exceptionally polite, and you've always apologized for various things, but let me be clear that a lack of politeness or apology wouldn't be a problem for me, so don't worry that that could kill the deal, because it won't. All I need is a proper challenge brought according to my clear, concise, and generous rules. Once you've done that, we're in business.
Garnabby
Garnabby
Joined: Aug 14, 2010
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September 27th, 2010 at 5:39:33 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I get a kick out of how the Wizard responds to these things. It seems to be the one subject that not protected by the very liberal Wizard "free speech" policy.



Ever heard the invitation, "Were not doing anything tonight, come join our little neighborly get-together on the patio. Don't worry, you may talk about anything with these people." And how long did it last? Well, that's the thing... it's great to "give the scoop" on the other guy's stuff, but not when its the "wrong" other guy in a position to retaliate (with more than words, or senseless name-calling if you're lucky).

Quote: Wizard

I think the levels of faith in betting systems and a deity are about equally strong, because both are about equally absurd. As I've said many times, the more ridiculous a belief is, the more tenaciously it tends to be held.



Until we know and understand everything, including which we can't... no one can completely rule out anything, not even my statement about this.

Anyway, doesn't also the above comment, itself, sound a bit like one of those "beliefs" of the strained sort based more on (relative) experience than theory and experiment? Like it's okay to conclude that gamblers are going to gamble anyway, but it's not okay for them to not appear as "angels" here?

And much as we may want to deny it, doesn't putting down one deity necessarily prop up another, even if ultimately a humanistic one?

Quote: MathExtremist

This subforum is called "Betting Systems". If you don't want that sort of discussion here, it's your site -- take down the subforum. Nobody will mind.



Certainly not the casinos, who 100% depend on their own public glorification and justification-for-being.

Quote: Wizard

Is there some other forum where I can direct people to go to discuss betting systems? I'm getting sick of it turning this forum into a cesspool.

About the Michael Bluejay challenge, I wouldn't hope for him accepting it, or even responding. He is very busy with other things and knows that such challenges almost never get off the ground.



Well, maybe it ought to be discussed until either of youze can improve upon one of those systems (, this ostensibly(?) being primarily a gambling message-board about a gambling town,) or every one else "gets the message", namely that losing money isn't fun or entertaining unless perhaps you're a masochist or casino, and it's the other guy's money, and that you or the other guy will almost certainly and quickly lose it.

Quote: MichaelBluejay

All I need is a proper challenge brought according to my clear, concise, and generous rules. Once you've done that, we're in business.



Hardly clear, as essentially you're inviting and entertaining counter-example emperical evidence to something which (you've gone on record stating) remains theoretically impossible. (Eg, someone asking for my banking information after claiming that my bank "refused to process" one of my cheques to her despite my own banking records indicating otherwise. If that person has concrete proof of that, why is she asking it of myself? Ought not she be mailing her claim of my bank's strange behavior behind my back, to which i would have no way of accessing, to me?)

Wouldn't it make sense here to base a real challenge on whose gambling system is better over the course of weeks of actual play... and let it all to the real gamblers?

Quote: mkl654321

The reason I say that is that if you were inclined to accept the verdict of skilled and knowledgeable mathematicians, you wouldn't have concocted your system in the first place--you would already have known that it was a fool's errand to do so.



The optimal strategy, randomization, is only as good as one's strength to back it up. (Eg, bluffing in a poker game.)
Why bet at all, if you can be sure? Anyway, what constitutes a "good bet"? - The best slots-game in town; a sucker's edge; or some gray-area blackjack-stunts? (P.S. God doesn't even have to exist to be God.)
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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September 27th, 2010 at 6:24:51 PM permalink
Update:

Quote: MichaelBluejay

Yeah, actually, in his first email to me, he said something like, "According to your rules, what's an 'event'?" I said, "The word 'event' doesn't appear anywhere in my rules. You're using that term, not me."

He replies and says, "I'm sorry I misquoted you. I meant, what constitutes a 'turn'?"

Of course, the word "turn" doesn't appear anywhere in the rules, either.


98steps has sent me his system in writing. Yes, at first it was hard to understand because he uses words and phrases that are not a part of normal craps language.

Quote: MichaelBluejay


I would love to post the system rules here so I can get some validation on how non-understandable they are (and not from "lack of formatting" or "because it's in outline format"), but 98 is trusting me to keep his system secret, and I take my responsibilities seriously.

Of course, in reality, posting it really wouldn't betray any secrets because no one could understand the system from the description anyway. And even if they could, the secret has no value, because it's just another losing betting system.


It took me a few times to read thru the system.
I am 100% certain I can set up the system perfectly in WinCraps.
I have to contact him just to verify a few items he did not make clear, in his own words that is.

After my programming of "the system" in WinCraps I will contact 98steps to see how he wants to proceed.
I may run my own simulation but will not show any results to anyone without 98steps approval.

Honestly, I personally do not think "the system" can pass 1 billion sessions and show a profit. I have a friend who thinks it can. So time will tell.

After programmed into WinCraps, a resulting text file will be easy for anyone to read and understand 98steps system.

Anyway...
I ended up in LA today where it hit 113 degrees! I'm still hot and not in a good way
yeouch!!!
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
98steps
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
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September 28th, 2010 at 8:48:46 AM permalink
I would like to thank 7craps for extending me the courtesy of reading thru my "gibberish" with an open mind. I have no objections to his posting any results he comes up with thru his testing, once the system is programmed correctly.

From his posted remarks, I must acknowledge that my write-up was not as clear as I originally believed it to be. Not total "gibberish" either. Rather, somewhere inbetween and in need of clarification.

My use of terms that are not standard to craps player derives simply from the fact that I am not a lifelong Craps player. In fact, April 10th of this year I had never even played the game.



Michael- Will a text version of a WinCraps Autobet file be acceptable to you?
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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September 28th, 2010 at 9:40:05 AM permalink
I am really enjoying this thread alot, and I am not sure why. Perhaps it's akin to watching a train rolling full steam ahead toward a bridge that is out... Can our hero switch the tracks in time?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
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September 28th, 2010 at 11:25:04 AM permalink
98, your writeup was indeed gibberish. Your continued attempts to say otherwise are annoying, especially as that implies that the problem was my own failure to understand rather than to communicate in plain English. "Maybe the formatting was lost in the email." (Irrelevant when the doc isn't written in clear English.) "Oh, it was in outline format." (Not!) "I used non-craps terms because I'm unfamiliar with craps." That doesn't mean you just invent new terms out of thin air without explaining what the hell you mean by them.

How about this: if your system fails (either 7craps' simulation or mine), then I get to post the complete system you sent me here?
mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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September 28th, 2010 at 12:27:09 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

98, your writeup was indeed gibberish. Your continued attempts to say otherwise are annoying, especially as that implies that the problem was my own failure to understand rather than to communicate in plain English. "Maybe the formatting was lost in the email." (Irrelevant when the doc isn't written in clear English.) "Oh, it was in outline format." (Not!) "I used non-craps terms because I'm unfamiliar with craps." That doesn't mean you just invent new terms out of thin air without explaining what the hell you mean by them.

How about this: if your system fails (either 7craps' simulation or mine), then I get to post the complete system you sent me here?



I have a growing and burning curiosity to see exactly what it was he sent you.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
98steps
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
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September 29th, 2010 at 3:25:34 AM permalink
I concede that my original submission was clearly unacceptable.

WIll a text version of a completed WinCraps Auto-bet file be considered as acceptable?
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
  • Threads: 29
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September 29th, 2010 at 11:06:41 AM permalink
No idea, as I've never seen a WinCraps Auto-bet file. I'm willing to have a look, though. But why is writing it out in plain English so hard? You did get someone to review it for you.

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