Coronavirus math

Quote: billryan

Only 3362 deaths for the day? This thing is so over. When will Mericans stop listening to the so-called experts and start getting their covid info here. There was no reason for the roughly 100,000 people who died last month to have even gotten sick. Don't they know this thing is over?
link to original post

Sadly, this forum is infrequently referred to as THE Go To place for covid advice. That and the fact that we have little influence even amongst the existing membership.
Oh well, their loss, I guess.

Speaking of numbers dead......
I don't know how you guys count covd deaths, but here in the UK, it is generally deaths from any cause within 28 days of a failed covid test. We needed a consistent like for like measure and that sufficed: It went up and down roughly proportionately to the 'deaths due to covid' But it is now acknowledged by our 'Office for National Statistics' that that is a skewed measure now that so very many who were destined to die just happened to fall in the 1 in 20 of us who are infected.

Quote: bbc

The BBC's Head of Statistics Robert Cuffe says most of the recent increase in Covid deaths could be down to "coincidental" Covid - people whose death may have had nothing to do with coronavirus.

With the high proportion of infections in the population over the past month, the number of coincidental cases would be expected to increase.

Quote: billryan

Only 3362 deaths for the day? This thing is so over. When will Mericans stop listening to the so-called experts and start getting their covid info here. There was no reason for the roughly 100,000 people who died last month to have even gotten sick. Don't they know this thing is over?
link to original post

Did they breakdown death's by BMI? Bet you won't find that stat!!!!!

I took a PCR test Thursday at CVS. Every time I have taken one in Vegas, bam! results report early the next morning (in California, results two days later). This time, I didn't receive any email.

However, when I logged into my CVShealth account, the results were there (Negative), so maybe the results came in over the weekend, or even on Friday, but I never received the email.

The COVID testing system seems to be taxed to its limits. This time when I arrived in the drive through an hour early, the pharmacist wanted me to leave and come back in an hour. Pharmacist said that they were just too busy and needed people to come closer to their appointment times. That sort of thing - worrying about whether arrived a little early or a little late, had never been an issue before. Finally, pharmacist just let me take the test. By the time I got to the window there were four cars waiting behind me anyway, and there was no way I was going to get out of line just to get right back in line later.

Another sign of strain in the health system is that for my Niacin extended release prescription, I had it filled at a Vegas pharmacy and the pharmacist told me it would take two days to fill - because they are too busy. This is the same pharmacy where I took the PCR Covid test. That sort of thing, taking two days to fill a prescription instead of just hours, is something new too.

Quote: DeMango

Quote: billryan

Only 3362 deaths for the day? This thing is so over. When will Mericans stop listening to the so-called experts and start getting their covid info here. There was no reason for the roughly 100,000 people who died last month to have even gotten sick. Don't they know this thing is over?
link to original post

Did they breakdown death's by BMI? Bet you won't find that stat!!!!!
link to original post

So only thin Mericans matter? Don't obese Mericans vote almost as much as real Mericans? Whats next?

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: billryan

Only 3362 deaths for the day? This thing is so over. When will Mericans stop listening to the so-called experts and start getting their covid info here. There was no reason for the roughly 100,000 people who died last month to have even gotten sick. Don't they know this thing is over?
link to original post

Sadly, this forum is infrequently referred to as THE Go To place for covid advice. That and the fact that we have little influence even amongst the existing membership.
Oh well, their loss, I guess.

Speaking of numbers dead......
I don't know how you guys count covd deaths, but here in the UK, it is generally deaths from any cause within 28 days of a failed covid test. We needed a consistent like for like measure and that sufficed: It went up and down roughly proportionately to the 'deaths due to covid' But it is now acknowledged by our 'Office for National Statistics' that that is a skewed measure now that so very many who were destined to die just happened to fall in the 1 in 20 of us who are infected.

Quote: bbc

The BBC's Head of Statistics Robert Cuffe says most of the recent increase in Covid deaths could be down to "coincidental" Covid - people whose death may have had nothing to do with coronavirus.

With the high proportion of infections in the population over the past month, the number of coincidental cases would be expected to increase.

link to original post

So when does the pandemic end in the UK & Ireland? Mandates and such sent to hell? I think no Aussie players allowed in US Open! Screw 'em!

NY Nurses Arrested After Selling $1.5 Million In Fake Vaccine Cards
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/ny-nurses-arrested-after-selling-15-million-fake-vaccine-cards

The pair reportedly charged between $220 and $440 for adults and $85 for children. After selling the cards, the women would then allegedly add the information to the NY State Immunization Information System (NYSIIS).

Quote: DeMango

Quote: bbc

The BBC's Head of Statistics Robert Cuffe says most of the recent increase in Covid deaths could be down to "coincidental" Covid - people whose death may have had nothing to do with coronavirus.

With the high proportion of infections in the population over the past month, the number of coincidental cases would be expected to increase.

So when does the pandemic end in the UK & Ireland? Mandates and such sent to hell? I think no Aussie players allowed in US Open! Screw 'em!
link to original post

It won't end as such, it will just hopefully wither on the vine and be deemed an acceptable endemic risk, as we defocus from it.
On Thursday 27th, our government raised pretty much all mandates for masks and other legislated measures. Till then, masks were required in indoor settings and some event capacities were restricted. That was lifted and made voluntary. Masks on public transport: now mandatory.Care home visit restrictions and advice to work from home all optional. etc etc. The only legally mandated restriction that affects me is a requirement to mask up in any medical settings.
But we are still largely still wearing masks in shops, about 60% compliance. We have high voluntary compliance on public transport and in workplaces. I don't think the public fear it any longer, especially the majority of us who are vaxxed to the max.
Unless a new strain kicks in, I'm guessing we will be largely business as usual by summer.
I'll call it over when the BBC stops publishing daily stats.

Quote: ChumpChange

NY Nurses Arrested After Selling $1.5 Million In Fake Vaccine Cards
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/ny-nurses-arrested-after-selling-15-million-fake-vaccine-cards

The pair reportedly charged between $220 and $440 for adults and $85 for children. After selling the cards, the women would then allegedly add the information to the NY State Immunization Information System (NYSIIS).
link to original post

At least the high price came with a commensurate service.

_____________


the U.S. has far higher death rates from Covid than other well off countries


.



.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/02/01/science/covid-deaths-united-states.html?


put the headline title into google and then click the link to beat the NYT paywall


.

Quote: lilredrooster

_____________


the U.S. has far higher death rates from Covid than other well off countries


.



.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/02/01/science/covid-deaths-united-states.html?


put the headline title into google and then click the link to beat the NYT paywall


.
link to original post

Well it does pay hospitals to have you die from covid rather than, flu, or such. These other countries probably do not have these incentives, so death rates seem to be lower. Oh what a surprise. You have been played, sucka!

Quote: DeMango

You have been played, sucka!

I'm definitely a sucka. I couldn't agree more. everybody is about some things.

but it could be worse

at least I'm not in love with the martingale

don't believe any version of the marty or reverse marty I could construct will crush casinos_________________


(martingale lovers affectionately use the term "marty")


.

Sorry for not having the details on the article, but I get a summary feed on medical articles of the day. The main one from yesterday was (paraphrase) ‘boosted people 97 times less likely to die from COVID-19 than unvaccinated people’. It’s why I am not afraid for ME about catching it, if I haven’t already…

Edit…. It is an update from the CDC.

I can’t wait to hear how anyone still is anti vax. The math is the math!

It's a death wish at this point.

Quote: DeMango

Quote: lilredrooster

_____________


the U.S. has far higher death rates from Covid than other well off countries
link to original post

Well it does pay hospitals to have you die from covid rather than, flu, or such. These other countries probably do not have these incentives, so death rates seem to be lower. Oh what a surprise. You have been played, sucka!
link to original post

Somewhat offensive DeMango.
Anyhow. Fact check yourself by researching 'Excess deaths' Those stats cannot be fudged so easily and you'll find the same trends.
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid#excess-mortality-during-covid-19-background

And , to soopoo, chumpchange: Let's not degenerate this thread into a vax / antivax opinion piece. Try to have maths/stats or charts in the thread, as per the thread title.

Quote: OnceDear

And , to soopoo, chumpchange: Let's not degenerate this thread into a vax / antivax opinion piece. Try to have maths/stats or charts in the thread, as per the thread title.
link to original post

Hey, OD, please read my post again! If "97 times more likely" is not a math based post, then there are no such things as math based posts!

I worry about catching COVID because I could be banned from the mall for 3 months, and have diarrhea to boot!

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: OnceDear

And , to soopoo, chumpchange: Let's not degenerate this thread into a vax / antivax opinion piece. Try to have maths/stats or charts in the thread, as per the thread title.
link to original post

Hey, OD, please read my post again! If "97 times more likely" is not a math based post, then there are no such things as math based posts!
link to original post

Acknowledged. That's clearly on topic, as is CC's reference to how long he might get diarrhea. $:o)

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: DeMango

You have been played, sucka!

I'm definitely a sucka. I couldn't agree more. everybody is about some things.

but it could be worse

at least I'm not in love with the martingale

don't believe any version of the marty or reverse marty I could construct will crush casinos_________________


(martingale lovers affectionately use the term "marty")


.
link to original post

Not sure why everybody regurgitates Martingale. Look into D'Alembert when you have an advantage on a close to even chance. Best way to beat back variance with great long term profits.

Quote: ChumpChange

It's a death wish at this point.
link to original post

Deathwish? I don't understand. The virus only kills fat people with additional health problems. Otherwise, the survivor rate is extremely high.

If COVID was a death wish for the unvaxxed, there wouldn't be any children left on the planet.

That is a lie. And also if the hospitals close the death rate will go past 20%.
If hospitals just stop admitting unvaccinated people like people all over the internet have been clamoring for for months because the unvaccinated are a severe burden on hospitals, those unvaccinated people sick with COVID who are denied access to the hospital likely have a better than 50% chance of dying (nobody really knows yet).

Unvaccinated elderly 50 times more likely to be hospitalized due to COVID - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoRVGGxRpLA

Holy hyperbole napkin math.

Quote: mcallister3200

Holy hyperbole napkin math.
link to original post

America is a country where there are a great number of people who believe that the moon landings were faked

and that professional wrestling is real


.

Quote: ChumpChange

That is a lie. And also if the hospitals close the death rate will go past 20%.
If hospitals just stop admitting unvaccinated people like people all over the internet have been clamoring for for months because the unvaccinated are a severe burden on hospitals, those unvaccinated people sick with COVID who are denied access to the hospital likely have a better than 50% chance of dying (nobody really knows yet).

Why would they have a 50% chance of dying when the survival rate has been 98%+?

Did 50% of people with it die before the vax?

This has to be the only time in my life the unvaxed are more worried than the unvaxed.

Said it before, trolls do what trolls do. Mods playing violins while chumpster burns.

Quote: AZDuffman

Why would they have a 50% chance of dying when the survival rate has been 98%+?

Did 50% of people with it die before the vax?

This has to be the only time in my life the unvaxed are more worried than the unvaxed.
link to original post

Before Delta, 20% of hospitalized COVID sufferers wound up on ventilators. If hospitals just shunned them, they would die. The other 80% who were hospitalized wouldn't be admitted to the hospital in the case of a hospital closure or an unvaxxed ban at the hospitals. How many of those would have died? I would say the total of the 20% and a large fraction of the 80% would total over 50% who were refused hospitalization would have died.

TV just said the USA had less than 400K new COVID cases yesterday, which is still 8 times what it was before Omicron last Thanksgiving.

Quote: DeMango

Said it before, trolls do what trolls do. Mods playing violins while chumpster burns.
link to original post

CC's maths and stats are shaky, but at least he is on topic and not insulting his peers.

Quote: ChumpChange

Quote: AZDuffman

Why would they have a 50% chance of dying when the survival rate has been 98%+?

Did 50% of people with it die before the vax?

This has to be the only time in my life the unvaxed are more worried than the unvaxed.
link to original post

Before Delta, 20% of hospitalized COVID sufferers wound up on ventilators. If hospitals just shunned them, they would die. The other 80% who were hospitalized wouldn't be admitted to the hospital in the case of a hospital closure or an unvaxxed ban at the hospitals. How many of those would have died? I would say the total of the 20% and a large fraction of the 80% would total over 50% who were refused hospitalization would have died.

TV just said the USA had less than 400K new COVID cases yesterday, which is still 8 times what it was before Omicron last Thanksgiving.
link to original post

The flaw in your numbers logic is most people who catch it never see the inside of a hospital.

Hospitals are not supposed to be in the business of shunning people for political reasons. Suggesting hospitals shun people is both pretty morbid and opens up some dangerous possibilities. We need to knock off such talk here and elsewhere.

Half of the unvaccinated people who got COVID before Omicron went to the hospital. Before last spring, that would be half of nearly all cases except for special niche groups who were vaccinated like people in nursing homes and essential workers. Now we have 40% to 75% vaccination rates in most states, that means a 25% to 60% unvaccination rate in most states. The unvaccinated will still be subject to severe health risks, and they are still clogging hospital emergency wards. The notion that hospitals will fail to admit people is not far off as they reach capacity. You can't set up a tent with beds in the outdoor parking lots in the middle of winter like they tried in mid-2020.

The reality of rationing care, as hospital beds fill and staffing is short - CNN - Sept. 13, 2021 (outdated)
https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/13/health/rationing-care-hospital-beds-staff-explainer-wellness/index.html

Overwhelmed Hospitals Are Shipping COVID-19 Patients To Far-Off Cities : NPR - August 19, 2021
https://www.npr.org/2021/08/19/1029378744/hospital-beds-shortage-covid-coronavirus-states

Quote: ChumpChange

Half of the unvaccinated people who got COVID before Omicron went to the hospital.

That doesn't sound even remotely accurate. There's no way that half of the unvaxed people that contracted the China Virus ended up in the hospital. That's just ludicrous. That sounds more like a made up cable news covidgasm.

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: DeMango

Said it before, trolls do what trolls do. Mods playing violins while chumpster burns.
link to original post

CC's maths and stats are shaky, but at least he is on topic and not insulting his peers.
link to original post

Kind of like 18 yo's in a row? Suppose he said something that outrageous once a day on average, since Covid started? He has. And gets away with it.

People that are fat. People that smoke. Both groups are at a far greater health risk than simply being unvaxxed against a weak 99% survivable virus.

I'm curious if CC would advocate fat people and smokers being refused treatment at the hospital.

And where is the math to support the vaxxed should be terrified of the unvaxxed?

The pre-existing condition in question is being unvaxxed, not anything else.

Quote: Keyser

Quote: ChumpChange

Half of the unvaccinated people who got COVID before Omicron went to the hospital.

That doesn't sound even remotely accurate. There's no way that half of the unvaxed people that contracted the China Virus ended up in the hospital. That's just ludicrous. That sounds more like a made up cable news covidgasm.
link to original post

You beat me to this. If it were the case than half the people who had the china virus before the vax would have been going to the hospital. Did we have anywhere near that number? Not at all.

It sounds to me like this number is based on people who went to a doctor then half of that number were admitted and half were sent home. Then some collapsing news network heard that stat and did some selective reporting to rile up their viewers.

The kind of number when you hear it you should say, "Wait a minute!"

Patients hospitalized for COVID could pay thousands of dollars, study suggests - October 18, 2021
https://labblog.uofmhealth.org/industry-dx/patients-hospitalized-for-covid-could-pay-thousands-of-dollars-study-suggests

(excerpts):
As insurance companies start charging members for hospital-related costs again, analysis of 2020 data shows what they might owe.

Based on data from actual patients hospitalized for COVID-19 last year, the study suggests the lack of waivers could mean bills of about $3,800 for people with job-related or self-purchased private insurance, and $1,500 for people with Medicare Advantage plans.

“Many insurers claim that it is justified to charge patients for COVID-19 hospitalizations now that COVID-19 vaccines are widely available,” said lead author Kao-Ping Chua, M.D., Ph.D., a health policy researcher and pediatrician at Michigan Medicine and the Susan B. Meister Child Health Evaluation Research Center. “However, some people hospitalized for COVID-19 aren’t eligible for vaccines, such as young children, while others are vaccinated patients who experienced a severe breakthrough infection. Our study suggests these patients could (get) substantial bills.”

That amount billed directly to patients is a small portion of the average cost of caring for a hospitalized COVID-19 patient. The study finds that each hospitalization of a person with private insurance cost a total of $42,200 on average, and that each hospitalization of a person with COVID-19 who had Medicare Advantage coverage averaged about $21,400.

The Kaiser Family Foundation analyzed the status of waivers from the two largest insurers in each state and found that 72% had ended their waivers for COVID-19 hospitalizations by August 2021.
The study also suggests that insurer cost-sharing waivers for COVID-19 hospitalizations don’t always cover all hospitalization-related care.

For example, patients in the study frequently received bills from the doctors who cared for patients in the hospital as well as from ambulance companies.

Overall, 71% of privately insured patients received a bill for any hospitalization-related service, with an average size of $788. Among those with Medicare Advantage coverage, 49% received a bill, with an average size of $277.


“One of my main concerns is that the threat of high costs might cause some patients with severe COVID-19 to delay going to the hospital, increasing their risk of death,” he said.

To prevent this possibility, Chua said federal policymakers could require insurers to waive costs of COVID-19 hospitalization-related care throughout the pandemic – just as they already do for COVID-19 testing and vaccination. However, he added that policymakers are unlikely to do this given widespread anger against the unvaccinated.

Hospitals that received special pandemic funding are already barred from billing patients directly for costs beyond what their insurance covers. Hospitals also get reimbursed by the federal government when they care for uninsured COVID-19 patients.

Jan. 11, 2021 (peak)
7 day average of hospitalized patients in the USA: 128K; in the ICU: 28.5K

Jan. 21, 2022 (peak)
7 day average of hospitalized patients in the USA: 150K; in the ICU: 26K

Daily Now: Cases 76.2M +310K; Deaths 900K +3,958

Now that we know the origins of the virus, I'd really like to see China pay for these medical bills and other damages.

A recent controversial Johns Hopkins meta-analysis reignites a discussion about the adverse consequences of lockdowns after finding they had no significant mortality benefit during the first wave of the 2020 pandemic in the United States and Europe, according to a recent report.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-lockdowns-johns-hopkins-study-debate

Quote: Keyser

A recent controversial Johns Hopkins meta-analysis reignites a discussion about the adverse consequences of lockdowns after finding they had no significant mortality benefit during the first wave of the 2020 pandemic in the United States and Europe, according to a recent report.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-lockdowns-johns-hopkins-study-debate
link to original post

Bearing in mind that this is indeed controversial. Please let's not start squabbles over the veracity of that report. Rule 19!

Slowly the truth emerges. Only controversial because of the damage done economically to. the world
because of the lockdowns. If common sense begins to prevail as the virus subsidies, as predicted, this will soon be over.

Cochise County announced this week they will be deploying National Guard members to help out at the county jail and in the Sherriffs office itself, due to staffing shortages. Cochise is the fourth county in Arizona to be forced to deploy the Guard due to extensive staff shortages.
By law, they will not perform law enforcement duties and can not be in contact with the public or prisoners.

Quote: Gundy

And where is the math to support the vaxxed should be terrified of the unvaxxed?
link to original post

Even the beloved but dumb and crooked as ever CDC has once again just changed its vaccination timetable.

BA.2 “Stealth Omicron” has now been found in 35 States in the United States . #BA2 #Omicron
May be 150% MORE TRANSMISSABLE THAN THE ORIGINAL OMICRON.

Chinese officials confirm fast-spreading coronavirus outbreak in #Baise involves the Omicron variant, The city of 4 million is on full lockdown and sealed off.

China's Chernobyl continues!

China suspects omicron Covid variant arrived in Beijing via overseas mail - YouTube - CNBC Jan 18, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=692_DHqblBc

Who cares? Every new variant transmits faster, is less lethal. Follow the science.

I feel that eventually we will need a Vaccine needed for every Variant that pops up and that worries me.

A universal coronavirus vaccine is in development. I believe the US gov't has made significant progress on this front.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/is-a-universal-coronavirus-vaccine-on-the-horizon

Quote: Starburger

I feel that eventually we will need a Vaccine needed for every Variant that pops up and that worries me.
link to original post

There's two things that influence that. One is immunity can wear off, even for the same virus later on.. Then of course, there's the variants you're inferring.

I don't know why it's a big deal though. We do this all the time with the flu. It's also likely we can treat some variants with the same treatment or preventions just like we are now.

Quote: rxwine

Quote: Starburger

I feel that eventually we will need a Vaccine needed for every Variant that pops up and that worries me.
link to original post

There's two things that influence that. One is immunity can wear off, even for the same virus later on.. Then of course, there's the variants you're inferring.

I don't know why it's a big deal though. We do this all the time with the flu. It's also likely we can treat some variants with the same treatment or preventions just like we are now.
link to original post

Hmm. Maybe "need," isn't the term I should have used. I think I should have said something like,"There will be a new Vaccine being made and pushed for every new Variant that pops up."