Coronavirus math

Quote: AZDuffman

Most of the employees were maskless. At the grocery store masks remain at about 10% of the customers though it seems they are still making or at least pressuring employees to wear them. I had to do my one week a month at my office and same thing, maybe 10% wearing them, the rest of us leading a normal life

_______


you seem to be thrilled to see people maskless
you're free to believe what you want to believe
what you believe and state doesn't influence me (or many others, fortunately) at all
sympathy for those who become ill and ran around maskless and unvaccinated is waning


this is from a research paper from an academic journal re the masked compared to the maskless
feel free to say it's biased - likely to be your best chance of rebutting it


the journal is "The Public Library of Science" or "PLOS" which was founded by Nobel Prize winner Harold Varmus in 2000



"The proportions of states and D.C. with high COVID-19 rates were greatest for those with no mask wearing policy for the general public in the preceding month (Fig 2). Among states and D.C. with no mask wearing policy, 50 to 73% had high COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month. In contrast, 25% or fewer states with a mask wearing policy had high COVID-19 rates, except in September when over half experienced high rates. Fourteen of the 15 states with no mask wearing policy for the general public for the entire four month period (June through September) reported a high COVID-19 rate. High COVID-rates were less frequent in states and D.C. with strict mask wearing policy than in states with recommended policy.

Of the 8 states with at least 75% mask adherence none reported a high Covid-19 rate [referring to the period analyzed]"


https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0249891


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Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AZDuffman

Most of the employees were maskless. At the grocery store masks remain at about 10% of the customers though it seems they are still making or at least pressuring employees to wear them. I had to do my one week a month at my office and same thing, maybe 10% wearing them, the rest of us leading a normal life

_______


you seem to be thrilled to see people maskless
you're free to believe what you want to believe
what you believe and state doesn't influence me (or many others, fortunately) at all
sympathy for those who become ill and ran around maskless and unvaccinated is waning

I am thrilled. A research paper can say what it wants, there are too many variables to just say the masks are making the difference. Watch football, hardly anyone wearing masks. We were told last year about all this support for masks. Yet maybe 10% wear them. So I do not believe there was all that "support."

Instead of frightening half the population to death we need to focus on getting thru things.

Quote: AZDuffman

A research paper can say what it wants,

Instead of frightening half the population to death we need to focus on getting thru things.

I'll take a scientific research paper over your off the cuff pronouncements every day of the week

I'm not frightened to death and neither are most who choose to wear masks indoors

I too, and a great many others are focused on getting thru things

I would greatly prefer to get thru things without getting sick

I'll shed my mask when a majority of experts says it's the right time to do that - not from reading the advice of non experts with an agenda on a gambling forum


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Arizona has had 1.3 million COVID cases and that translates to 19K cases per 100K people.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/map

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AZDuffman

A research paper can say what it wants,

Instead of frightening half the population to death we need to focus on getting thru things.

I'll take a scientific research paper over your off the cuff pronouncements every day of the week

I'm not frightened to death and neither are most who choose to wear masks indoors

I too, and a great many others are focused on getting thru things

I would greatly prefer to get thru things without getting sick

I'll shed my mask when a majority of experts says it's the right time to do that - not from reading the advice of non experts with an agenda on a gambling forum


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link to original post

Take what you want. Live how you want. I will take my instincts over someone on a gambling forum.

Quote: AZDuffman

I will take my instincts over someone on a gambling forum.

and over accredited scientists and experts widely recognized in their fields of expertise


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Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AZDuffman

I will take my instincts over someone on a gambling forum.

and over accredited scientists and experts widely recognized in their fields of expertise


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link to original post

Yes. Given their record on the whole thing I am not going to blindly listen to them just because they are on tv.

But listen to who you like.

Man you guys are itching for a stern warning from OD.

Quote: ChumpChange

Arizona has had 1.3 million COVID cases and that translates to 19K cases per 100K people.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/map
link to original post

Don't worry CC. Doubling every 3 days, They will soon catch up $:o)

Site doesn't work for me.

Quote: mcallister3200

Man you guys are itching for a stern warning from OD.
link to original post

I'm conscious that I'm contributing to this thread, which by its nature is controversial. The opinions about how seriously we take the threat and how we should face it or ignore it, are strongly held. Discussion of the stats or math of the issue seem to me to be on topic.
Expect any stern warnings or penalties to be imposed by other mods who are keeping a close eye on the thread, I'm not immune.

Just saw an amazing chart that seems to indicate counties that voted one way have seen a small increase in covid the last two months while counties that voted another have cases skyrocketing. I hesitate to mention it as I'm sure it is just a big coincidence.
It takes death statistics as reported to John Hopkins and divided the US into ten equally populated segments, by Presidential vote., and compares the increase in deaths from June to the beginning of October.

I don't know why or how the topic of Covid became so political and toxic. As someone with pre-existing conditions, who is susceptible and has had covid twice, I have an interest in the latest scientific information to help me make the best choice for myself going forward. I hope that is not viewed as political.

Funny thing about all these studies and data that comes out especially with small sample size is that if you are looking for some data to back your predetermined position, you can probably find it. lol.

This morning I saw data out of New Hampshire I think, that showed if a person was vaccinated twice and then got a breakthrough case, they have something called super-immunity. hey that sounds great for me. I got covid in 2020, then was vaccinated twice, then got a (mild) breakthrough case, and then received a booster shot. I should have super-duper immunity. LOL.

Problem was THAT study involved 27 people. WAY to small a sample size to have any meaning. It also doesn't account for the fact that those people may have had breakthrough cases BECAUSE they are immune-compromised or have conditions that make them more susceptible. I mean what good is a label of super immunity if a person has something else like an immune issue working against them.

So you can find anything you are looking for as far as Data and results. That is why I am looking for data that contains results from a large sample size of people over an extended period from UK (because UK is about 2 weeks ahead of U.S.) with this new variant.

Quote: kewlj

That is why I am looking for data that contains results from a large sample size of people over an extended period from UK (because UK is about 2 weeks ahead of U.S.) with this new variant.
link to original post

Good plan KJ. I recommend our https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases ONS site. They collect data, independently using statistically appropriate practices.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/coronavirus will get you to fair non partisan analysis.
It used to be that we in the UK watched Italy as being two weeks ahead of us. But then with different policies, we went a bit out of sync. It was useful to see what they messed up as we messed up similarly a couple of weeks later.
While our government policies are a bit controversial, our national stats tend to be fairly honest and well explained.
I like what John Hopkins puts out for the world and USA.

Quote: billryan

Just saw an amazing chart that seems to indicate counties that voted one way have seen a small increase in covid the last two months while counties that voted another have cases skyrocketing. I hesitate to mention it as I'm sure it is just a big coincidence.
It takes death statistics as reported to John Hopkins and divided the US into ten equally populated segments, by Presidential vote., and compares the increase in deaths from June to the beginning of October.
link to original post

Amazing.
I suggest that such political analysis is likely to infringe rule 19. Let's tread lightly or take that over to DT.

__________


another very interesting study from the Texas Department of State Health Services


from the study:


"From September 4 through October 1, 2021:
Unvaccinated people were 13 times more likely to become infected with COVID-19 than fully vaccinated people.
Unvaccinated people were 20 times more likely to experience COVID-19-associated death than fully vaccinated people

From Jan. 15, 2021 to Oct. 1, 2021, unvaccinated people were 40 times more likely to experience COVID-19-associated death than fully vaccinated people."


enormous costs associated with treating the unvaccinated - and a great deal of it was totally preventable
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https://dshs.texas.gov/immunize/covid19/data/vaccination-status.aspx


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Quote: lilredrooster

__________


another very interesting study from the Texas Department of State Health Services


from the study:


"From September 4 through October 1, 2021:
Unvaccinated people were 13 times more likely to become infected with COVID-19 than fully vaccinated people.
Unvaccinated people were 20 times more likely to experience COVID-19-associated death than fully vaccinated people

From Jan. 15, 2021 to Oct. 1, 2021, unvaccinated people were 40 times more likely to experience COVID-19-associated death than fully vaccinated people."


enormous costs associated with treating the unvaccinated - and a great deal of it was totally preventable
.


https://dshs.texas.gov/immunize/covid19/data/vaccination-status.aspx


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link to original post

Interesting. and stark.

Beware that Omicron could send you to the hospital in 6 days instead of 9-10 days, and cases will be as severe as Delta. Positive vaccination status will blunt most cases but not all. Omicron is deeper water and a booster can help with that disadvantage.

Quote: ChumpChange

Beware that Omicron could send you to the hospital in 6 days instead of 9-10 days, and cases will be as severe as Delta. Positive vaccination status will blunt most cases but not all. Omicron is deeper water and a booster can help with that disadvantage.
link to original post

Our science god has told us they almost certainly are not as severe, not that he’s always been right.

I need a new vaccination card.

The official UK government website for data and insights on coronavirus (COVID-19).
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
861K got their boosters yesterday in the UK. 45.8% have gotten their boosters already. 81.6% have 2 doses, 89.4% have at least 1 dose. So 10.6% are going for the herd immunity strategy. 32K got their first dose and 42K got their 2nd dose yesterday. There were 9.3 million COVID tests done in the past week, 1.6 million done yesterday. 900 people were admitted to the hospital yesterday and 6K in the past week. There were 111 deaths yesterday, 794 over the past week. (USA is averaging 1300 deaths per day the TV says). 93K people tested positive yesterday, and 477K over the past week (up 38.6%).

Quote: ChumpChange reformatted

The official UK government website for data and insights on coronavirus (COVID-19).
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
861K got their boosters yesterday in the UK.
45.8% have gotten their boosters already.
81.6% have 2 doses,
89.4% have at least 1 dose.
So 10.6% are going for the herd immunity strategy.
32K got their first dose and 42K got their 2nd dose yesterday.
There were 9.3 million COVID tests done in the past week,
1.6 million done yesterday.
900 people were admitted to the hospital yesterday and
6K in the past week.
There were 111 deaths yesterday,
794 over the past week.
(USA is averaging 1300 deaths per day the TV says). 93K people tested positive yesterday, and 477K over the past week (up 38.6%).
link to original post

Thanks,
Interesting. I think there is value in observing a country that is ahead on the timeline.What we experience today is what you need to prepare for in a few weeks. Same way, I observe Italy and Germany.
US population 330/67 = 4.7 times UK population
US covid deaths per day (1300/111)=11.7 times UK covid deaths.
And that's before any omicron deaths.

You can get an easy to read UK Covid Situation report from our BBC, assuming its not geo restricted.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Latest few days, the reported cases have gone up like a rocket. Each day being an all time high.
50k, 78k, 88k, 93k
16 days ago it crashed though 50k for the first time and was almost holding steady. Then came omicron.


**I don't think I'm being too political, when I say...
Our Prime Minister is hesitant to reveal the true depth of government concern, because he is in deep political trouble and getting lobbied hard by the hospitality industry. But the public have seen the light. Hospitality bookings have been getting cancelled at an insane rate. Pubs and bars are getting empty without imposed restrictions.
Most of us are playing wait and see on the hospitalisation stats in a few weeks time.
If you want an even clearer view of the UK situation, seek press conferences from our Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon. Omicron is now dominant in Scotland and soon will be in England. Scotland has a partly devolved government and Ms Sturgeon is one of our most plain speaking politicians. She pulls no punches and Scotland, and Wales for that matter, are imposing stronger restrictions than England. And imposing them sooner. Basically, our leaders are very worried indeed. Similar on mainland Europe. France have banned UK visitors. Europe concerns

Stay safe.

** Based on the test 'Can you tell me who i voted for?'

Breakthrough infections when fully vaccinated generate ‘super immunity’ to COVID-19, study suggests

“I think this speaks to an eventual end game,” said co-author Marcel Curlin, M.D., associate professor of medicine (infectious diseases) in the OHSU School of Medicine who also serves as medical director of OHSU Occupational Health. “It doesn’t mean we’re at the end of the pandemic, but it points to where we’re likely to land: Once you’re vaccinated and then exposed to the virus, you’re probably going to be reasonably well-protected from future variants.

Saw some doctor on TV today say that we could be 1 or 2 variants away from largely vaccine & treatment resistant illnesses.

Omicron is making a mockery of 2 dose resistance.

Quote: ChumpChange

Beware that Omicron could send you to the hospital in 6 days instead of 9-10 days, and cases will be as severe as Delta. Positive vaccination status will blunt most cases but not all. Omicron is deeper water and a booster can help with that disadvantage.
link to original post

According to medical experts, not only is this totally false but new cases are declining in RSA hot spots. Won’t hold my breath to see CC in red

6 hours ago https://www.capetownmagazine.com/coronavirus
DEVELOPING: Coronavirus COVID-19 in Cape Town. Updates + practical tips
We’re off the UK red list; we’re still at level 1, but avoid spreader events this season

Last update: Friday, 17 December 2021


COVID-19 HIGHLIGHTS
BREAKING: South Africa’s off the UK red list at last

Western Cape vaccinations at 4 394 058

Health Minister Phaahla keeps restrictions on level
Appeals made to South Africans to vax + stay away from big events

WATCH: Booster shots explained


YOU CAN TRAVEL TO THE UK AGAIN
The United Kingdom has removed South Africa and another 10 southern African countries – including Botswana, Namibia, Nigeria and Zimbabwe – off its red list. This means that travellers from these countries don’t need to quarantine for 10 days on arrival in the UK, a News24 report stated.

South Africa was put on the list after local scientists identified the Omicron variant late November. In a knee-jerk reaction, the UK slapped restrictions on many African countries, to great outrage from the continent. Luckily, the country has now backtracked.



COVID-19 UPDATE IN WESTERN CAPE: THE SITUATION NOW
The vaccination drive in the province continues, with 4 394 058 vaccines administered on 16 December, 2021. The Western Cape government has recorded 28 174 active cases of Covid-19, which is a steep infection curve, with a total of 555 218 confirmed cases, according to the Western Cape government’s dashboard.

Below are the Western Cape stats, according to the WC government’s dashboard as of 17 December:

506 778 recorded recoveries
20 266 deaths

28 174 active cases


COVID-19 IN SOUTH AFRICA: THE SITUATION NOW
As of 16 December, 2021, the National Department of Health had administered a total of 27 422 495 vaccines. So far, the national total of reported cases stands at 3 255 816. Here are the official figures, according to the Department of Health:

2 954 919 recorded recoveries, with a 92,8% recovery rate

20 516 511 tests have been conducted

90 262 total deaths

210 365 active cases

RESTRICTIONS REMAIN ON LEVEL 1


Despite the strong spread of the disease, the hospitalisation rates remain relatively low and under control, and so level 1 restrictions will remain. However, said National Health Minister Joe Phaahla in a media statement, people should vaccinate and avoid any big events over the season.

“We call upon all travellers, especially those who are unvaccinated or partly vaccinated coming from areas declared hotspots, to get vaccinated before hitting the roads to protect their families and friends they will be visiting during this period associated with large social gatherings like parties and weddings, which can be ‘super spreader’ events that carry a huge risk of transmission of the virus,” he said.

Read more on travel restrictions on our getting around update.
**************************************************************************
WHO says Omicron in 89 countries and spreading rapidly
Cases doubling every 1.5 to three days if there is community transmission but clinical severity of variant unknown

FASTER HOSPITALIZATION WITH #Omicron—Latest data on hospital admissions in London (Omicron epicenter) shows Omicron wave is sending patients to hospitals sooner in 6 days than versus Delta (9-10 days). And the model suggests similar severity, not “milder”
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1471777316225310729

Thank you China!

A major incident has been declared in London and more than 10,000 new Omicron cases have been confirmed in the UK, as the variant surges across the country.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59711474

Quote: ChumpChange

FASTER HOSPITALIZATION WITH #Omicron—Latest data on hospital admissions in London (Omicron epicenter) shows Omicron wave is sending patients to hospitals sooner in 6 days than versus Delta (9-10 days). And the model suggests similar severity, not “milder”
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1471777316225310729
link to original post

How many deaths? Still zero?

UK reports 10,000 jump in Omicron cases, deaths rise to 7.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-reports-leap-10000-confirmed-omicron-coronavirus-cases-2021-12-18/

I've yet to see any evidence this strain is milder than Delta. Seems to be a lot of wishful thinking and the like. Hopefully, it is the case but the evidence isn't there right now.

I think we can get a decent representative sample of what’s happening among the 25% or so of Americans that would be deemed “healthy” by what’s happening in the NBA, a mostly asymptomatic population being tested frequently. NBA is 97% vaccinated and 60% boosted, many likely J+J for the first. Obviously mostly people in peak physical condition or health.

As of a couple hours ago, 50 of the 86 players to be in virus protocols this season, or about 10% or the entire NBA, has entered virus protocols within the last week.

Quote: billryan

I've yet to see any evidence this strain is milder than Delta. Seems to be a lot of wishful thinking and the like. Hopefully, it is the case but the evidence isn't there right now.
link to original post

Ditto.
Delta was more deadly than Alpha or the original strain. Stupidly wishful thinking to expect omicron to be milder. It's almost a completely unknown quantity with respects to the damage it might cause.
We were just about getting hospitalisations and deaths level with the vaccines to the extent that we could get them taken. But that was Delta. We never did manage to get Delta daily infections to slow or recede, but leaders thought we had done enough.
But now, we KNOW that omicron is good at evading existing immunity. Our UK and European leaders, experts, medics and scientists are unanimously pleading with us to do everything we can to help. Meanwhile, here we are all planning to mingle for Christmas. and the US is pitifully slow and conflicted at reacting. Omicron could not have picked a better time, or a more viable, stupid host species.

Quote: billryan

I've yet to see any evidence this strain is milder than Delta. Seems to be a lot of wishful thinking and the like. Hopefully, it is the case but the evidence isn't there right now.
link to original post

Directly from Fauci’s mouth: “almost certainly not as severe”

Edit: he said almost certainly not *more* severe, misread it the first time.

Quote: mcallister3200

I think we can get a decent representative sample of what’s happening among the 25% or so of Americans that would be deemed “healthy” by what’s happening in the NBA, a mostly asymptomatic population being tested frequently. NBA is 97% vaccinated and 60% boosted, many likely J+J for the first. Obviously mostly people in peak physical condition or health.

As of a couple hours ago, 50 of the 86 players to be in virus protocols this season, or about 10% or the entire NBA, has entered virus protocols within the last week.
link to original post

That was one demographic, but redo the exercice for unhealthy forum dwellers and you will have my attention.

But these guys are all old with pre-existing conditions, right? And they are not productive members of society, so they are expendable?
/sarcasm
The UK Office for National Statistics ons.gov.uk ( Official govt source) reports a measure of how many 'man on the street' infections there are at any one time. Their current report is a little out of date but came up with...

"In England, the trend in the percentage of people testing positive was uncertain in the week ending 11 December 2021; we estimate that 936,000 people in England had coronavirus (COVID-19) (95% credible interval: 883,900 to 989,100), equating to around 1 in 60 people."

So, find 60 people in your proximity in the supermarket, workplace, congregation, bar, nightclub, and on average one of them is currently infected. 60 people being served by the cashier or hairdresser or by YOU: 1 of them has it right NOW. Mingle more, increase your risk. That's a pretty breathtaking threat with something as contagious as this beast.
Oh. And that's cautious, vaccine keen, compliant England.

Is there a similar published stat for the USA or for individual states?


** found one...... and for the USA it's 1 in 30 !!!
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

You can calculate state values yourself


Again. That was pre omicron.

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: mcallister3200

I think we can get a decent representative sample of what’s happening among the 25% or so of Americans that would be deemed “healthy” by what’s happening in the NBA, a mostly asymptomatic population being tested frequently. NBA is 97% vaccinated and 60% boosted, many likely J+J for the first. Obviously mostly people in peak physical condition or health.

As of a couple hours ago, 50 of the 86 players to be in virus protocols this season, or about 10% or the entire NBA, has entered virus protocols within the last week.
link to original post

That was one demographic, but redo the exercice for unhealthy forum dwellers and you will have my attention.

But these guys are all old with pre-existing conditions, right? And they are not productive members of society, so they are expendable?
/sarcasm
The UK Office for National Statistics ons.gov.uk ( Official govt source) reports a measure of how many 'man on the street' infections there are at any one time. Their current report is a little out of date but came up with...

"In England, the trend in the percentage of people testing positive was uncertain in the week ending 11 December 2021; we estimate that 936,000 people in England had coronavirus (COVID-19) (95% credible interval: 883,900 to 989,100), equating to around 1 in 60 people."

So, find 60 people in your proximity in the supermarket, workplace, congregation, bar, nightclub, and on average one of them is currently infected. 60 people being served by the cashier or hairdresser or by YOU: 1 of them has it right NOW. Mingle more, increase your risk. That's a pretty breathtaking threat with something as contagious as this beast.
Oh. And that's cautious, vaccine keen, compliant England.

Is there a similar published stat for the USA or for individual states?

Again. That was pre omicron.
link to original post

NOT the point I was trying to make. Sample was chosen because they are being tested frequently. I pointed out only about 25% of Americans are healthy, since about half of the rest of that 75% probably “think” they’re healthy.

Only point I was trying to make was how rapidly cases are increasing and how many asymptomatic cases or mild cases are likely unknowingly out there at the moment, since for most of us if you’re not sick you’re not going to get tested.

The point I was trying to make is it’s possible it may be as close to one in ten than the one in sixty estimate from a week or so ago you cited for UK

I just don't think they have the data to determine that for sure yet. Severe Illness, hospitalizations and death generally occur several weeks in and this variant just hasn't been around long enough to determine that for sure.

I know it was an entirely different variant, but when I got covid the first time, I was mildly sick for about a week. Fever, very achy, some chest pressure, very tired, off and on headache. One or two of the nights that chest pressure was a little worse. Then after about 5-6 days it almost all went away (except the fatigue) and I felt normal. I remember thinking well THAT wasn't so bad. And then 3 days later it all came back much worse for another week or maybe 10 days. I read lots of people had the same sort of double attack thing. If you got that second wave or week, THAT is when most people got really sick and ended up in the hospital.

Really only South Africa is 3-4 weeks into this new variant. They are showing less severe illness than say Delta, and that is a great sign. But as I said before, their population is younger than countries like U.S. or UK. I want to see that same dynamic of less severe illness play out in UK and U.S. and that is going to take a couple more weeks for me to be comfortable that it is less severe.

Now, very preliminary findings suggest that Omicrom replicates faster, in the nose and throat areas, which would explain it's easier and faster spread, but that does not replicate as efficiently in the lungs, which would explain less severity. This would be a great thing, if confirmed by more data.

In the county next to me which has a large metropolitan city, there have been 105K confirmed COVID cases since they started keeping records, and there's been 1.5K deaths, so a 1.5% death rate. My county has about 13K cases with 169 deaths, or a death rate of 1.3%. The death rate percentage has been shrinking because of vaccinations and better treatments and distancing protocols. But there's a little note on my phone that cases are up 3.7% and deaths are up 7.6% since last week in my county. Death is a lagging factor in all the stats. When cases go up 100 fold, the number of deaths may take a few weeks to show a similar surge.

Quote: mcallister3200

...if you’re not sick you’re not going to get tested.
link to original post

In truth, most asymptomatic will not get tested, especially where test come at a cost.

Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: OnceDear

/sarcasm
So, find 60 people in your proximity in the supermarket, workplace, congregation, bar, nightclub, and on average one of them is currently infected. 60 people being served by the cashier or hairdresser or by YOU: 1 of them has it right NOW. Mingle more, increase your risk. That's a pretty breathtaking threat with something as contagious as this beast.
Oh. And that's cautious, vaccine keen, compliant England.
link to original post

NOT the point I was trying to make. Sample was chosen because they are being tested frequently. I pointed out only about 25% of Americans are healthy, since about half of the rest of that 75% probably “think” they’re healthy.

Only point I was trying to make was how rapidly cases are increasing and how many asymptomatic cases or mild cases are likely unknowingly out there at the moment, since for most of us if you’re not sick you’re not going to get tested.

The point I was trying to make is it’s possible it may be as close to one in ten than the one in sixty estimate from a week or so ago you cited for UK
link to original post

Thanks. I understood and was not trying to undermine your point, but to agree with it.
I've since found https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ from which I estimate 1 in 30 of your population is an active case.
Don't know how good the sampling is. 1 in 30 of your daily contacts currently infected!!!!!! Some states much more. And for your christmas family get-together.... Yup. 1 in 30 will be infected there, too. But by Christmas, many of them will have the more infectious omicron. !!!

Testing could be such a good weapon in our armoury.
My family will all be testing before attending on Christmas Morning, or they will be unwelcome.

UK scientists: bring in curbs now or face up to 2m daily Covid infections as Omicron spreads - The Guardian
https://tinyurl.com/y3a47ck2
Deaths could hit 6,000 a day and delaying restrictions until New Year will cut effectiveness, say Sage experts
Sage also modelled the impact of measures imposed under step 1 of the roadmap used last spring. If step 1 measures were imposed, the modelling suggested that infections could be limited to between 200,000 and a million a day. Hospitalisations could run at between 1,500 and 5,000 admissions a day and daily deaths would be 200 to 2,000.

Quote: kewlj

I just don't think they have the data to determine that for sure yet. Severe Illness, hospitalizations and death generally occur several weeks in and this variant just hasn't been around long enough to determine that for sure. ...
Now, very preliminary findings suggest that Omicrom replicates faster, in the nose and throat areas, which would explain it's easier and faster spread, but that does not replicate as efficiently in the lungs, which would explain less severity. This would be a great thing, if confirmed by more data.
link to original post

Denmark might be where we see the impact soonest.... Or not.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/18/omicron-variant-denmark/

Quote: OnceDear

My family will all be testing before attending on Christmas Morning, or they will be unwelcome.

Christmas plans changed in my little household as well last night. My significant other (for lack of a better term) was going to go home to Florida for Christmas. Last night my brother kind of laid down the law telling him not to go. I should mention they have been friends for 15 years dating back to high school. My brother is kind of protective of me, and told the BF that if he goes, he shouldn't come back until things settle down because I am at risk. I felt really bad but can't say I disagree. I hate that I am a factor effecting others around me. But, things seem to be deteriorating pretty quickly. I think the next couple weeks will tell us a lot. It is unfortunate that Christmas is in that window.

Quote: ChumpChange

UK reports 10,000 jump in Omicron cases, deaths rise to 7.

"Of 5,153 individuals identified with an Omicron infection between 1 November and 11 December 2021, 305 were linked to a previous confirmed infection and had an interval from the previous positive test of 90 days or more. ---https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk"

I've never had a COVID test nor been in line for a COVID test or paid the local chain pharmacy $25 for a couple COVID tests. But the TV is showing food bank length lines for testing in various cities, and NYC just started with free testing in the last day or so. Some would say these testing lines are superspreader events themselves, because why would you be in line?

I’d assume lots of the more susceptible souls are already pushing up daises. The Grim Reaper has to slice a little harder this go round.

Quote: ChumpChange

I've never had a COVID test nor been in line for a COVID test or paid the local chain pharmacy $25 for a couple COVID tests. But the TV is showing food bank length lines for testing in various cities, and NYC just started with free testing in the last day or so. Some would say these testing lines are superspreader events themselves, because why would you be in line?
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Many other countries have invested more in rapid, home testing, making it free or very low cost. The U.S. hasn't gone that route.

Quote: rxwine

I’d assume lots of the more susceptible souls are already pushing up daises. The Grim Reaper has to slice a little harder this go round.
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WoW! :(

Quote: kewlj

Quote: ChumpChange

I've never had a COVID test nor been in line for a COVID test or paid the local chain pharmacy $25 for a couple COVID tests. But the TV is showing food bank length lines for testing in various cities, and NYC just started with free testing in the last day or so. Some would say these testing lines are superspreader events themselves, because why would you be in line?
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Many other countries have invested more in rapid, home testing, making it free or very low cost. The U.S. hasn't gone that route.
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That decision might have made all the difference, but sadly, it's not the American way. Neither side of your political divide seems inclined to make that leap of faith.
Here we have free Rapid Flow tests for all, and free PCR tests for anyone with symptoms. Also all businesses can get a free supply for use by their employees. Or free walk in testing centres everywhere. Yes. Testing lines could be a superspreader if handled badly. We never hear much about 'test and trace' applications, nowadays. That was another measure successful in some countries.

Kudos to your brother, KJ, and your partner and his family.

Stay safe.

I think I read a tweet lately that rapid flow tests may miss Omicron but PCR tests will pick it up. Also separate tests could change from negative to positive in 4 to 6 hours because you're getting sicker.

Just speculating but I imagine South Africa doesn't have the obesity problem the US has so how it plays out here may not follow the same patterns.