Coronavirus math
70%. People just aren't going to believe it until it's overwhelming. If they don't have food, they're going to go buy some. Then there are the people who are very selfish, and would be sure to infect someone for any gain, such as companionship.Quote: rxwineHow many people do you think decide to go out even though they have symptoms. Or afraid of letting people at work know they have symptoms. Gotta be some percentage.
Quote: rxwineHow many people do you think decide to go out even though they have symptoms. Or afraid of letting people at work know they have symptoms. Gotta be some percentage.
Bingo. But it is even worse. You can be infected, and contagious, even if you have NO symptoms.
Quote: ChumpChangeUS coronavirus cases via
@CNN
:
Four weeks ago: 89
Three weeks ago: 558
Two weeks ago: 3,485
One week ago: 32,502
Right now: 139,773
*********************************************************************************
So 2 weeks from now, 5 million infected means 100,000 die. #FlattenTheCurve
A great post by UnJon, followed by this garbage. Listen to The President, deaths top out in two weeks. Let's see who is right.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/pandemic-global-estimates.htm?fbclid=IwAR3PYh5k2-Oj0CG3ggMT9q-0cFTO32O14GcpEh2rhy9cBz3XBgIePJMg0XM
Quote: jjjooogggToday, we are still not sure how many died from the 2000 pandemic.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/pandemic-global-estimates.htm?fbclid=IwAR3PYh5k2-Oj0CG3ggMT9q-0cFTO32O14GcpEh2rhy9cBz3XBgIePJMg0XM
We'll have a better idea with this one, but not everyone's cause of death will be appropriately documented.
Quote: KeyserNot true! Maybe two week ago, but now we are on it.
Nope. For sure way deficient 2 weeks ago, but as of March 26 (most recent data available), per 100,000 population, US is still down at or near the bottom. The questions have been per capita, and the US has a much larger population than either South Korea or Italy. US is around 200 tests per 100k, Italy around 400, S. Korea around 700.
You're listening to lies or wishful thinking on this.
Quote: DeMangoA great post by UnJon, followed by this garbage. Listen to The President, deaths top out in two weeks. Let's see who is right.
The President is wrong, in that deaths won't "top out" in 2 weeks. Also, once they do top out, if the mitigation works there will be a plateau, probably lengthy, that continues for a couple months as the disease rolls through different regions, and infections wear down and kill people.
In many cases, it'a taking 3-4 weeks after infection to get bad enough that the person needs a ventilator. We're still in the no-lockdown infection manifestation period, because it's only been 2 weeks most anywhere, less than that for most, and 1/4+ of the country STILL isn't locked down. Things didn't really start closing until the weekend before St. Patrick's day in most places.
Quote: beachbumbabsNope. For sure way deficient 2 weeks ago, but as of March 26 (most recent data available), per 100,000 population, US is still down at or near the bottom. The questions have been per capita, and the US has a much larger population than either South Korea or Italy. US is around 200 tests per 100k, Italy around 400, S. Korea around 700.
You're listening to lies or wishful thinking on this.
Sorry, but I strongly disagree. Testing per capita in NYC is already higher than South Korea.
Testing per capita in Kansas and Alaska and East Tennessee and Montana is very low which brings the average for the USA down. In East Tennessee, everyone is isolating themselves at home and awareness of Covid-19 is sky-high but we just don't have many people showing symptoms. Its not a lack of testing where I live, its a lack of symptoms.
And, guess what I found! This UK Parlimentary Committee report describes testimony given by British epidemiologist, Neil Furguson to a parlimentary committee on 25-March. The committee must have been quite anxious to get Furguson's input, because it had him testify via video link while he was in quarantine, still recovering from Coronavirus disease. His research group at Imperial College wrote the scholarly paper UK used to implement a national C-virus response.
I think the story explains the issues, especially as those issues directly affect the UK. Unlike the USA, the UK has attempted a nationwide control strategy. It addresses issues like the "reproduction number" (i.e., average number of new infections each carrier causes), and "case fatality rates," and -- of course, Lucky's favorite -- the current paucity of reliable data. The committee was examining whether or not to adjust the UK pandemic-response program ('scuse me, programme).
Not sure UK's high regard for expert advice is mirrored on this side of the pond.
Bet they don't show NYC telling folks to celebrate Lunar New Year with catastrophic results for the City.
Quote: DeMangoIt matters where you get your news from. Babs is obviously locked into the far left networks that want to see the administration fail.
Bet they don't show NYC telling folks to celebrate Lunar New Year with catastrophic results for the City.
Political post, slur. 3 days.
Quote: DeMangoInteresting video ONM, thanks. Who is Gravitas?
I guess Gravitas is just the name of the show or the show segment, wherever the intended audience is. This just showed up on Youtube for me, I respect it.
I thought this video was different, she said, "one of the biggest chinks in its armor, no pun intended", like it's nothing and the offense is known to not meant to be an offense. We can't do that here. I guess apparently China has it's own propaganda news networks and stations all over the world, just remembered this. I think I saw one of the channels in a hotel room, remembered thinking how lame and stupid the channel was and it seemed fishy.
I think what helped here (UK) was that the PM had experts alongside him during the daily broadcast. We tend to trust experts telling us things are bad rather than politicians so, at the moment, most people are staying in unless necessary.Quote: LuckyPhow...Not sure UK's high regard for expert advice is mirrored on this side of the pond...
There's also a good queuing mechanism used at supermarkets where one stands in line outside (using lines on the sidewalk about 2m apart) and wait our turn. This also means one does a bigger shop less often.
They (the President) also said that the number of deaths was roughly projected at 2.2 million without social distancing.
They also said that the projections could change based on unexpected events - "if more sites flare up then expected" was a specific example that they mentioned. Michigan has flared in the last several days and they seemed to indicate that that was unexpected.
Finally, they said that the only way to get the number under 100,000 deaths would be "mitigation" -which means, I guess, breakthroughs in treatments or possibly in vaccines.
So, now the armchair analysts amongst us have a benchmark projection to denounce or support.
Quote: gordonm888Well, the federal Coronavirus task force (I think it was Dr. Fauci) announced at the press conference last night a current projection of 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the U.S. from covid-19. They also did admit that the modelers say that we would have to be "very lucky" for the number to be low as 100,000. A number of 240,000 deaths was their worst case in the set of modeling runs that they were relying on.
They (the President) also said that the number of deaths was roughly projected at 2.2 million without social distancing.
They also said that the projections could change based on unexpected events - "if more sites flare up then expected" was a specific example that they mentioned. Michigan has flared in the last several days and they seemed to indicate that that was unexpected.
Finally, they said that the only way to get the number under 100,000 deaths would be "mitigation" -which means, I guess, breakthroughs in treatments or possibly in vaccines.
So, now the armchair analysts amongst us have a benchmark projection to denounce or support.
We screwed this up, I think my herd immunity theory amongst the likely to survive would have done wonders. Once it has passed through the most likely to survive, it loses the transmission ability. The hard part is keeping the young and the old apart for over 14 days(probably 28 completely safe). Of course it's probably too late and too complicated.
Quote: onenickelmiracleWe screwed this up, I think my herd immunity theory amongst the likely to survive would have done wonders. Once it has passed through the most likely to survive, it loses the transmission ability. The hard part is keeping the young and the old apart for over 14 days(probably 28 completely safe). Of course it's probably too late and too complicated.
Young, healthy people are seeing their own problems. In some cases it is like the immune system is attacking the lungs: https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/doctor-note-young-people-dying-coronavirus-200401062826169.html
If 'likely to survive' means 99.9% chance, that could still be millions of deaths. Then add in all the other complications, such as overrun hospitals. Far better to wait as long as we can to get as much information about the disease as we can.
If it lasts a month, two months, a year, it's as if people are dying anyway.Quote: TomGYoung, healthy people are seeing their own problems. In some cases it is like the immune system is attacking the lungs: https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/doctor-note-young-people-dying-coronavirus-200401062826169.html
If 'likely to survive' means 99.9% chance, that could still be millions of deaths. Then add in all the other complications, such as overrun hospitals. Far better to wait as long as we can to get as much information about the disease as we can.
Quote: onenickelmiracleIf it lasts a month, two months, a year, it's as if people are dying anyway.
Yes. Soon the authorities will be facing a harsh decision making - to keep trying to save the citizens from the virus or to try and save them from dying due to economical and mental issues.
See it doesn't have to be freedom for all or death for all. A hybrid will work, plus I think we'll have a few medications in a month or two.Quote: rawtuffYes. Soon the authorities will be facing a harsh decision making - to keep trying to save the citizens from the virus or to try and save them from dying due to economical and mental issues.
Quote: onenickelmiracleSee it doesn't have to be freedom for all or death for all. A hybrid will work, plus I think we'll have a few medications in a month or two.
I think a hybrid won't work either, the UK and the Netherlands thought it might but they backpedaled quickly after re-checking the math in real time.
Proceeding as long as possible with the social distancing measures in a combined effort to slow down the outbreak while still keeping hopes alive for a cure of some sort or a natural diminishing of the threat seems the best course for now. When that last resource is exhausted then...
Quote: rawtuffI think a hybrid won't work either, the UK and the Netherlands thought it might but they backpedaled quickly after re-checking the math in real time.
Proceeding as long as possible with the social distancing measures in a combined effort to slow down the outbreak while still keeping hopes alive for a cure of some sort or a natural diminishing of the threat seems the best course for now. When that last resource is exhausted then...
I really don't remember the UK being intelligent about herd immunity, remember Italy wasn't, don't know about the UK. I did just see the percent of the hospitalization 20-44% was 20%, which seems to be about 20% of the over all expectation, if we assume the same number of deaths is linear, looks like 1/500 die 20-44.
I wish I knew, I'd feel a lot better if I had the antibodies and had no real chance of getting it again nor spreading. All these people around getting it, I find it hard to believe I haven't come into contact with it.
Quote: onenickelmiracleSee it doesn't have to be freedom for all or death for all. A hybrid will work, plus I think we'll have a few medications in a month or two.
I would say Nevada's response has been about as close to a hybrid as possible and I think it's very similar to the rest of the country. First it was shut down the schools. Next day it was shut down casinos and "non-essential" public-facing businesses. Then a few days later clarify what that meant. Then over the course of the weeks the governor has been wording his directions more strongly. Other than some business owners who were forced to close or stop having direct contact with the public, regulators have done virtually nothing to interfere with whatever anyone wants to do. Anyone see things differently?
Quote: onenickelmiracleI really don't remember the UK being intelligent about herd immunity. ... All these people around getting it, I find it hard to believe I haven't come into contact with it.
Not sure if America is being intelligent about herd immunity. This CBS News survey shows 51 percent of Americans expect the pandemic to get worse in the next month, versus 28 percent who expect the things to get better. The remaining 21 percent say things will remain about the same concerning the pandemic.
Now, it's only one survey. But I find it troubling that 28 percent think the pandemic in America will have moderated during the next 30 days. Will those more carefree individuals foster a faster herd infection, but at a more rapid rate than the health care system can support? Does that 28 percent see such a different reality than the pandemic I see unfolding?
IMHO, very likely. On April Fools Day Florida issued an Executive Order (EO) that apparently positions the state with the 28 percent. Although the EO prohibits any public gathering of more than 10 people, it expressly declares as an essential service any religious activity conducted in a house of worship. If 28 percent of Floridians act like they don't need to take the pandemic seriously, then the state may be in for a rough time during the next 30 days.
I think it depends on your definition of 'better.' To me, better means a decreased rate of new infections, which I do expect to happen over the next 28 days. A month from now, I expect the number of active cases to continue to rise, but the number of daily new cases to be on a downward trend.Quote: LuckyPhowNot sure if America is being intelligent about herd immunity. This CBS News survey shows 51 percent of Americans expect the pandemic to get worse in the next month, versus 28 percent who expect the things to get better. The remaining 21 percent say things will remain about the same concerning the pandemic.
Now, it's only one survey. But I find it troubling that 28 percent think the pandemic in America will have moderated during the next 30 days. Will those more carefree individuals foster a faster herd infection, but at a more rapid rate than the health care system can support? Does that 28 percent see such a different reality than the pandemic I see unfolding?
IMHO, very likely.
We have seen a spike in new cases over the past two weeks, but a large part of that is because of better detection as new and better testing capabilities have come on-line. Once everyone that 'needs to be tested' gets tested, I think we will start to see the numbers (of daily new cases) fall.
I would expect things to get 'better' because most people are taking the pandemic seriously. Yes, there will always be a few, even today, that recklessly flaunt the restrictions, but I think those are few and far between. Just about everyone I have encountered the past two weeks has been following the CDC's guidelines and government instructions.
Am I an optimist? You bet! Could I be dead wrong? You bet! Am I going to take this thing seriously and continue to follow the guidelines? You bet!
Yeah, I don't get churches being 'essential.' Well, many are 'essential' in that they provide food and other services for many in the community, but crowding folks into the pews for a Sunday service makes no sense at this time. My church has cancelled all public masses (actually, masses for the past two weeks were cancelled as well), but have made them available online for us to watch from home. Seems like a sensible alternative for all houses of worship.Quote:On April Fools Day Florida issued an Executive Order (EO) that apparently positions the state with the 28 percent. Although the EO prohibits any public gathering of more than 10 people, it expressly declares as an essential service any religious activity conducted in a house of worship. If 28 percent of Floridians act like they don't need to take the pandemic seriously, then the state may be in for a rough time during the next 30 days.
I find it amazing that they value their employees ( and employees families) less than the almighty buck.
Quote: ChumpChangeWorld total of 1 million cases has 50,000 deaths, or 5% death rate. YMMV
Reflecting the wide and various quality of available healthcare across the world, no doubt.
Quote: ChumpChangeWorld total of 1 million cases has 50,000 deaths, or 5% death rate. YMMV
So that’s 1 million that tested positive.
Wonder how many more were infected with no symptoms and never knew it , or had symptoms and just got over it at home. Both of those groups aren’t counted in the million
I’m assuming the 50,000 deaths is more accurate. I don’t think you can die from the virus without showing symptoms. That would really be frightening.
Quote: ChumpChangeWorld total of 1 million cases has 50,000 deaths, or 5% death rate. YMMV
Not even close. It doesn't factor
in the hundreds of millions that
were never tested and have it and
will recover, or those that had
it and recovered. If they had all
those numbers death rate would
drop to where regular flu is.
Quote: michael99000So that’s 1 million that tested positive.
Wonder how many more were infected with no symptoms and never knew it , or had symptoms and just got over it at home. Both of those groups aren’t counted in the million
I’m assuming the 50,000 deaths is more accurate. I don’t think you can die from the virus without showing symptoms. That would really be frightening.
GDBONES had done an estimate based on countries that have done extensive testing and have a slowing rate of mortality growth (further along in the process) like South Korea and Norway and has come up with about 1.3% mortality ratio among those who got infected.
If we take the numbers from Diamond Princess ship as a base, at least 19% of the passengers and crew got infected and 1.5% of those infected died. This gives about 0.3% mortality ratio of "the total population". Which is still disturbingly high (about 1M projected deaths in the US). Not even remotely close to a seasonal flu mortality. All those are best case scenario, barring a sharp turn in the containment or spreading of the virus or a game changing drug developed/redirected.
he oversold it as did others but it may be helpful or more than helpful and the U.S. Government is taking it seriously
from the article:
"This week, the F.D.A. issued an emergency use authorization for hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, allowing doctors to distribute them to coronavirus patients. The agency’s chief scientist, Denise Hinton, wrote in the authorization order that the drugs “may be effective in treating Covid-19.” New York also recently began clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine combined with azithromycin."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/technology/doctor-zelenko-coronavirus-drugs.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
Quote: rxwineReflecting the wide and various quality of available healthcare across the world, no doubt.
Not really. 2 of the countries considered 1st world healthcare, Italy and Spain, have death rates in excess of 5%. And the UK, as of this morning, the death rate is about 9%
It seems to skew more closely to demographics and environment. Serious and fatal cases seem to both be disproportionately male, for example.
In both Italy and Spain, generations of families tend to live closely together, and life expectancy and the population of both tend to love longer than average. So they're wiping out the grandparent generation there, in part through close family exposure and virus reinforcement in the same household.
Still too early to calculate any accurate info. The disease takes one week to six weeks to kill people, if it's going to. The peaks are rolling occurrences, and many people are still battling while testing positive.
A better metric is, how many deaths vs. recovered. Snapshot for April 3, 2020:
Worldwide:
Coronavirus Cases:
1,030,570
Deaths:
54,226
Recovered:
220,031
Active:
756,313 Currently Infected Patients
718,135 (95%) in Mild Condition
38,178 (5%) Serious or Critical
Closed:
274,257 Cases which had an outcome:
220,031 (80%) Recovered / Discharged
54,226 (20%) Deaths
This is the best website I've found for data:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?
So, data shows TO RESOLUTION, you have a 20% mortality rate and 80% recovery rate. But only 1/4 of all known cases have resolved. And new cases are still climbing. Way too early to know what any of these ratios will end up being. Only last week, there were more dead than recovered. Now the rate is 4x that. I would expect it to continue to improve, but who knows, yet?
Quote: EvenBobNot even close. It doesn't factor
in the hundreds of millions that
were never tested and have it and
will recover, or those that had
it and recovered. If they had all
those numbers death rate would
drop to where regular flu is.
Bob, I agree that if there are reported 1 million cases, there are some multiple of that. But not 100 million. Also, the death rate will NOT drop to where the regular flu is. From the front lines, the deaths of previously healthy individuals occurs at a far greater rate than a flu patient. It also is easier to contract. I do believe in the USA, the final death rate will be around .5-.8%. Which is 5 to 8 times as lethal as the flu.
One thing I have not seen discussed anywhere....
Many nursing home residents, and some non nursing’ home residents, are DNR. So our extreme attempts at survival would not be used on them. I’m wondering out if all the COVID-19 deaths, how many (what percentage) were in DNR patients?
- The New York Times is maintaining a data set of cases and fatalities in the US at the county level. This gets updated daily. The data is available for download in CSV format. Source: https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data
- Kaggle is maintaining a global data set of confirmed, recovered, and fatal cases. If you're not familiar with Kaggle, think of it as the WoV for the data mining and analytics community. In addition to being able to download the data set, you can access the 'notebooks' created by members containing their own analysis and visualizations (e.g., Population factors Influencing COVID-19). To see a list of all available notebooks, use the Kernals tab. Source: https://www.kaggle.com/imdevskp/corona-virus-report
- Another Kaggle data set that might be of interest is COVID-19 containment and mitigation measures
- If you want to see some of the ways to visualize the data, check out the COVID-19 Data Hub maintained by tableau. Tableau is a very popular data visualization tool and, like the kaggle site, they have links to a number of visualizations created by users. An important point is that tableau visualizations are interactive so you can tweak what is being shown and how the data is organized and displayed. Think of these as alternatives to the JHU Global Dashboard that you constantly see being displayed on the news. One thing I really like about the tableau site is that the contributed visualizations come from all over the world (e.g., "COVID-19 Italia") so you don't get locked into a U.S.-centric pov. You can also find visualizations that explore the secondary effects of the pandemic (e.g., "How COVID-19 is Affecting Restaurants")
Finally, its probably a good idea to read Mapping coronavirus, responsibly. This is a blog posting by a cartographer showing examples of how data visualizations used by the media can often, whether intentionally or accidentally, distort the 'ground truth'.
Quote: beachbumbabsNot really. 2 of the countries considered 1st world healthcare, Italy and Spain, have death rates in excess of 5%. And the UK, as of this morning, the death rate is about 9%
Are we really sure Italy had ventilators for everyone who needed one at peak cases?
Data for April 2nd is incomplete.
At the bottom of the page are summaries and a map of patients testing positive by zip code. The death summary shows the number of deaths according to age, and whether or not underlying conditions existed.
Quote: EvenBobNot even close. It doesn't factor
in the hundreds of millions that
were never tested and have it and
will recover, or those that had
it and recovered. If they had all
those numbers death rate would
drop to where regular flu is.
I personally know of 3 completely healthy individuals, between 30 and 50 years old, who have died from coronavirus.
In my entire life to this point, I can’t recall anyone in that age/health category who didn’t make it through the flu.
To me , that is the biggest difference between covid-19 and the flu. Along with how contagious each one is. I’ve had people I live with get the flu and I never caught it. And that’s without even being overly careful.
Quote: EvenBobNot even close. It doesn't factor
in the hundreds of millions that
were never tested and have it and
will recover, or those that had
it and recovered. If they had all
those numbers death rate would
drop to where regular flu is.
In the US, there are 265,000 cases as right now.
Even if we assume the rest of the population (299 million or so) have already had it.
We still need to get to 3 million cases to get to 100 percent population. So, even under the craziest estimation we still have a ways to go. It's got to double 3+ times still.
Quote: michael99000I personally know of 3 completely healthy individuals, between 30 and 50 years old, who have died from coronavirus.
If I might ask, Michael, where do you live? And by saying "know of", do you mean you have heard on TV about them, or that you personally have met them such that they are friends, relatives, or acquaintances?
Of course I "know of" many more, from work relationships.
As far as flu deaths, you are correct. Throughout my career (30ish years) whenever a youngish person died from the flu it was always a big deal. Rare enough to have us investigate. Old person or person with serious co-morbidities die from flu, no one makes much notice.
springing up charging people for
phony tests.
