Coronavirus math
Quote: billryanLooking at the map of cases, I don't understand the little red splotch in Henderson.
Locals that didn't give a ****? It's been days but NV was clearly the worst state in cases for states that are roughly 3M or less.
But to be fair, it was one of the closest to 3M people. But a few > 3M were doing better than Nevada. Per capita Nevada is currently 19th in cases.
Minnesota has the lowest cases per capita. And 14th worst in tests per capita. But they have a 95% negative test rate. South Korea has a 98% negative test rate. Excellent.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/15/835250693/michigan-stay-at-home-order-prompts-honking-traffic-jam-protest
Quote: lilredroostergood ole boys in Michigan showing off big guns protest Michigan stay at home order
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/15/835250693/michigan-stay-at-home-order-prompts-honking-traffic-jam-protest
Yep. Correct me if I am wrong. But it's all "boys" to me. And a VAST majority were white.
That is what bankruptcy is for.Quote: AZDuffmanHad to move back in with folks and pay off debt over several years.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-china-compete-us-sources
Quote: gamerfreakFox News is reporting that they have government sources claiming there is evidence that Coronavirus was created in a Wuhan Lab
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-china-compete-us-sources
That's actually not what the article says.
It states sources which won't hand over any evidence (so it's speculative and unsubstantiated); claim Covid-19 is natural bat virus. Scientists have already concluded that from analysis of the virus. That's a scientific fact.
However this Wuhan lab (the report claims) was doing culture work on the "natural" virus in the lab and got contaminated, brought it to the Wuhan market and spread the virus.
So they didn't "create it"
It's plausible at least,.
EDIT: although it's Fox news, I will stress the article is by Brett Baier who I find is on the fact telling side of Fox so I give that a good amount of weight
Quote: darkozThat's actually not what the article says.
It states sources which won't hand over any evidence (so it's speculative and unsubstantiated); claim Covid-19 is natural bat virus. Scientists have already concluded that from analysis of the virus. That's a scientific fact.
However this Wuhan lab (the report claims) was doing culture work on the "natural" virus in the lab and got contaminated, brought it to the Wuhan market and spread the virus.
So they didn't "create it"
It's plausible at least,.
EDIT: although it's Fox news, I will stress the article is by Brett Baier who I find is on the fact telling side of Fox so I give that a good amount of weight
I agree with your read. Would add that the article also says the Wuhan wet market did not sell bats. If that’s true, it seems super relevant.
Quote: darkozThat's actually not what the article says.
It states sources which won't hand over any evidence (so it's speculative and unsubstantiated); claim Covid-19 is natural bat virus. Scientists have already concluded that from analysis of the virus. That's a scientific fact.
However this Wuhan lab (the report claims) was doing culture work on the "natural" virus in the lab and got contaminated, brought it to the Wuhan market and spread the virus.
So they didn't "create it"
It's plausible at least,.
EDIT: although it's Fox news, I will stress the article is by Brett Baier who I find is on the fact telling side of Fox so I give that a good amount of weight
Semantics...
Created the outbreak.
Smallpox is also a naturally occurring virus, but if an outbreak came from a communist lab no one would be screaming “BUT ITS NATURAL!!”
I am not saying any of this is true, just passing along the headline.
Quote: gamerfreakSemantics...
Created the outbreak.
Smallpox is also a naturally occurring virus, but if an outbreak came from a communist lab no one would be screaming “BUT ITS NATURAL!!”
I am not saying any of this is true, just passing along the headline.
Agreed but with caveat.
Generally when talking about labs the term "create" or "created" is taken to mean engineered.
To be clear, if true, then the 2019 pandemic was "created" by unsafe practices utilizing a natural pathogen but not bio-engineered.
Seems like a lot to say but that clears up the semantics
Quote: lilredroostergood ole boys in Michigan showing off big guns protest Michigan stay at home order
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/15/835250693/michigan-stay-at-home-order-prompts-honking-traffic-jam-protest
Funny that they wear mask to protest a non-existent threat.
Typical morons. Bringing a gun to a germ fight. Perhaps the second amendment will prove better protection than the blood of Jesus has.
Quote: unJonI agree with your read. Would add that the article also says the Wuhan wet market did not sell bats. If that’s true, it seems super relevant.
This article is very illuminating.
https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-chinese-wet-market-photos-2020-1
There are a few problems with the "No Bats Sold" in Wuhan wet market theory.
1) Bats are apparently sold at most wet markets. And Wuhan Seafood Market was known to sell more than seafood.
2) They are called "wet" markets because both live animals and prepared meat is sold often side by side. The killing of wild animals is done right in front of customers.
The irony is paranoid people can see just how their meat is being prepared but this type of on the spot prep is actually less healthy for obvious reasons
3) The killing of wild animals has already had strict restrictions placed on the markets by the Chinese government. However many places violated the rules and laws which China was lax on enforcement.
THIS ALONE makes any theory of bats not sold at Wuhan difficult to confirm. I E. The law and legal records may show no bats sold but illegal preparation of bats may very well have been taking place
Quote: billryanLooking at the map of cases, I don't understand the little red splotch in Henderson.
I think you are talking about this particular map:
http://media.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/download/COVID-19/updates/20200414-COVID19-Clark-by-City.pdf
That little red part in Henderson looks to be Unicorporated Clark County. It is an industrial park (NE of Fiesta Henderson). I think there is a chemical plant in that area (Tronox?). I would guess it is lumped in with Las Vegas because it is not technically Henderson. The zip code 89015 (in yellow) looks to include that part of town.
Quote: KeeneoneI think you are talking about this particular map:
http://media.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/download/COVID-19/updates/20200414-COVID19-Clark-by-City.pdf
That little red part in Henderson looks to be Unicorporated Clark County. It is an industrial park (NE of Fiesta Henderson). I think there is a chemical plant in that area (Tronox?). I would guess it is lumped in with Las Vegas because it is not technically Henderson. The zip code 89015 (in yellow) looks to include that part of town.
I was thinking it is roughly about where the auto-mall is, but can't understand why it is red instead of yellow, but if there is a piece of land that isn't Henderson inside of Henderson, I can see them lumping it in with the rest of Clark County.
I thought the map was poorly done. I'd rather see it done per capita.
BY JUSTINE COLEMAN - 04/15/20 01:20 PM EDT
Coronavirus has struck all eight retirees who met up for a regular poker game, resulting in three of the members' deaths, the South Florida Sun Sentinel reported Wednesday.
The group of eight met five nights a week, Sunday to Thursday at 7 p.m. for a poker game. Their last meeting occurred March 12.
One of the attendees, Harriet Molko, and relatives of the deceased told the newspaper that the coronavirus likely spread at that game as hugs, cards, cash and chips were exchanged.
Marcy Friedman, who organized the games, died on March 28 after developing symptoms three days after the final game, her son Andrew Friedman confirmed to the paper. She had underlying heart, lung and kidney conditions.
Couple Beverly Glass and Frederick Sands died in the same hospital room after developing symptoms within a week of the March 12 game. The Broward County Medical Examiner’s Office reported Sands had non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and tightening in the arteries, while Glass had the same heart condition.
The seemingly fateful game came days before local social distancing orders went into effect and three days before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended people avoid gatherings of more than 50 people.
This gathering of eight people demonstrates how the virus can unknowingly spread even among a small group of people.
Molko, who was hospitalized because of the virus, said she knows other players at the game continued to go to other small gatherings for the same purpose the weekend after March 12, and local casinos remained open for about a week after.
https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/21-year-old-man-with-arizona-ties-becomes-youngest-to-die-from-covid-19-in-colorado
https://www.kron4.com/health/coronavirus/21-year-old-riverside-nursing-assistant-dies-from-covid-19-complications/
http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-briton-21-with-no-existing-health-conditions-dies-after-contracting-covid-19-11963451
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-30/25-year-old-dies-coronavirus-warning
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/20-year-old-dies-from-coronavirus-after-doctors-told-him-no-need-to-worry
according to the CDC - total deaths in the U.S.
thru April 15................24,582
thru April 16................31,071
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
Quote: lilredroostersadly, according to the CDC about 6,500 passed yesterday in the U.S., by far the most - more than double the most in one day since I started tracking on April 5
according to the CDC - total deaths in the U.S.
thru April 15................24,582
thru April 16................31,071
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
I don't think that this is really true. If I understand correctly, the CDC just changed their policy on which deaths are attributed to COVID-19. This resulted in several thousand deaths over the last few weeks being re-classified. They have some difficulty with retroactively changing the numbers, so they're dumping all those extra deaths into April 14.
Quote: PapaChubbyI don't think that this is really true. If I understand correctly, the CDC just changed their policy on which deaths are attributed to COVID-19. This resulted in several thousand deaths over the last few weeks being re-classified. They have some difficulty with retroactively changing the numbers, so they're dumping all those extra deaths into April 14.
maybe, but the big increase occurred on April 16, not April 14
thru April 13...............21,942
thru April 14...............22,252
thru April 15...............24,582
thru April 16...............31,071
Quote: lilredroostermaybe, but the big increase occurred on April 16, not April 14
thru April 13...............21,942
thru April 14...............22,252
thru April 15...............24,582
thru April 16...............31,071
OK. The site that I follow shows it on the 14th. In any case: yes, there have been more deaths than previously believed. No, they did not occur on one day, and are not really a spike in the curve.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Quote: bobbartopI've mentioned Shi Zhengli. Apparently no one here is interested in the truth.
We can't handle the truth.
Quote: lilredroostersadly, according to the CDC about 6,500 passed yesterday in the U.S., by far the most - more than double the most in one day since I started tracking on April 5
according to the CDC - total deaths in the U.S.
thru April 15................24,582
thru April 16................31,071
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
There's been political pushback all week about adding deaths at home from COVID-19 to the official CDC tolls. Specifically, NY added about 3700 of them to their total, but the CDC was not carrying that addition for a couple of days while they argued about it. Many of those deaths were not specifically tested for the virus, but it was evident that they had the disease.
Chances are this is true nationwide, and using that criteria, deaths are significantly higher, but not yet reported as COVID-19 deaths. Not sure what the state of the internal argument is, but it appears at least the NY deaths are incorporated now into the dataset.
I'm not insulting you. I'm not insulting what you're doing. I have a hard time believing people living so frugally would be bad for the economy. That's all I'm saying. The economy depends on confidence, if suddenly everyone growing all their food, eating bagged lunches, buying used cars, getting clothes cheap and used, where will the supply of used come from? That's all I'm saying.Quote: AZDuffmanTo be like me? In what way?
I grew up lower middle class. I always tried to save for a rainy day but instead of a rainy day I got a hurricane that left me on the edge of bankruptcy. Had to move back in with folks and pay off debt over several years. Since then I am hyper-prepped. I was told that my attitude towards going back into debt is that of a recovering heroin addict. (Told that by a recovering opiate addict!)
So I would want more people to be prepped. To be more careful with money. To buy used instead of taking out 6+ year loans on new cars. To not be on the edge. If we had more of that we would have less mile-long lines at the food bank less than a month into the crisis.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI'm not insulting you. I'm not insulting what you're doing. I have a hard time believing people living so frugally would be bad for the economy. That's all I'm saying. The economy depends on confidence, if suddenly everyone growing all their food, eating bagged lunches, buying used cars, getting clothes cheap and used, where will the supply of used come from? That's all I'm saying.
Fair enough. I do agree that the economy does in a big part depend on people living above their means. I'll just spend the next 12 months not worrying about excessive debt while they do.
Quote: onenickelmiracleIn China, they have such a thing called gutter oil or rat oil, and it is gathered from the sewers. Then it is sold to whoever wants to buy it and used as cooking oil. So, this is the level of care for fellow men there, to knowingly make money selling something which will be hazardous to the health of fellow men just to make some money. Maybe that thing came from a wet market, but nobody will ever know. It's possible, but also possible it wasn't, heard the market was sanitized before any evidence could be gathered.
Certainly no American would ever sell a product knowing it was hazardous to someones heath, right? I mean who would put profit over peoples health?
Quote: billryanCertainly no American would ever sell a product knowing it was hazardous to someones heath, right? I mean who would put profit over peoples health?
In china they have unscrupulous people who make plastic rice and noodles
It looks real and tastes close enough apparently that people don't discover they have been duped until they have gastrointestinal problems a day later
Quote: beachbumbabsThere's been political pushback all week about adding deaths at home from COVID-19 to the official CDC tolls. Specifically, NY added about 3700 of them to their total, but the CDC was not carrying that addition for a couple of days while they argued about it. Many of those deaths were not specifically tested for the virus, but it was evident that they had the disease.
Chances are this is true nationwide, and using that criteria, deaths are significantly higher, but not yet reported as COVID-19 deaths. Not sure what the state of the internal argument is, but it appears at least the NY deaths are incorporated now into the dataset.
This is relatively easy to correct for in the long run. You just compare the previous three or four years of deaths in a location, and then record the spike this year. If deaths due to cardiac arrest suddenly leap by a factor of three, and deaths were consistent with coronavirus symptoms, then you're presented with either the deaths were due to some wild stroke of luck or more likely coronavirus.
I don't know if this has been discussed in the threads here, but the 1918 pandemic tallies weren't pinned down until after the fact. Numbers weren't considered solid until a couple of years later, when all of the epidemiological numbers had been sorted through.
Quote: redietzThis is relatively easy to correct for in the long run. You just compare the previous three or four years of deaths in a location, and then record the spike this year. If deaths due to cardiac arrest suddenly leap by a factor of three, and deaths were consistent with coronavirus symptoms, then you're presented with either the deaths were due to some wild stroke of luck or more likely coronavirus.
I don't know if this has been discussed in the threads here, but the 1918 pandemic tallies weren't pinned down until after the fact. Numbers weren't considered solid until a couple of years later, when all of the epidemiological numbers had been sorted through.
On the other hand, I've heard the Turks slaughtered a couple million Armenians and blamed it on the spanish flu. There are similar stories on a much smaller scale from Russia, from the British Middle East, and Latin America.
The Spanish Flu lasted almost three years. Some people want to declare victory after a month and move on.
Quote: billryanCertainly no American would ever sell a product knowing it was hazardous to someones heath, right? I mean who would put profit over peoples health?
Do the ribeyes count? I forgot all about them.
Quote: billryanWe can't handle the truth.
Bill, you're a funny guy.
All they have to do is google her name. Shi Zhengli. She is famous, and brilliant, and has been working with bat viruses for years. They bring her the bats to the Virology institute in Wuhan and she experiments on them. She has worked with many different viruses over the years. Finally, she was able to "jump species", bat to human, or bat to rat, to monkeys, to humans, whatever. Apparently by manipulating the protein spikes. Which is all above my paygrade. She wrote reports and gave talks on the process. Smart woman. Finally, the CCP shut her up, and sent in one of their own to take over the operation, Maj. Gen. Chen Wei, another smart woman. Still unclear how the virus got out of the lab in Wuhan, but that's where it came from.
Quote: bobbartopBill, you're a funny guy.
All they have to do is google her name. Shi Zhengli. She is famous, and brilliant, and has been working with bat viruses for years. They bring her the bats to the Virology institute in Wuhan and she experiments on them. She has worked with many different viruses over the years. Finally, she was able to "jump species", bat to human, or bat to rat, to monkeys, to humans, whatever. Apparently by manipulating the protein spikes. Which is all above my paygrade. She wrote reports and gave talks on the process. Smart woman. Finally, the CCP shut her up, and sent in one of their own to take over the operation, Maj. Gen. Chen Wei, another smart woman. Still unclear how the virus got out of the lab in Wuhan, but that's where it came from.
And this matters how? Lets put the fire out and then we can perform an autopsy.
Quote: billryanAnd this matters how? Lets put the fire out and then we can perform an autopsy.
Wow, just wow. It does matter.
Quote: DeMangoWow, just wow. It does matter.
Explain to me why the virus's origin matters as far as the road ahead of us goes. No one is suggesting it was a bio attack, or that the virus is a bio-weapon. So if it started in a Chinese market or escaped from a Chinese lab or was brought to China by a Finnish tourist, what difference does it make right now? Now is the time for everyone to work together to get through this. Then we work to make sure it cant happen again.
If it turns out it escaped from a Chinese lab, then what? What should we do? Raise tariffs on their goods? Ban Chinese imports?
Start World War 3?
Quote: DeMangoWow, just wow. It does matter.
What were they intending to do with it? Their experiment was a success, they managed to force it to jump species, to humans. Why do that?
For just NY State:
The full article, along with access to the data sets, is available from the journal The New Atlantis
Quote: TumblingBonesApparently a new trend is pundits stating that COVID-19 isn't as bad as cancer, car crashes, or the regular flu so why take such drastic action and destroy the economy. Here's what the data says in that regard:
For just NY State:
The full article, along with access to the data sets, is available from the journal The New Atlantis
Same order of magnitude as 2009. Difference is going to be when we get the vaccine. 2009 flu first reported april 2009 , first vaccine oct 2009. A vaccine in 6 months. They say we have to wait 12-18 months
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/swine-flu-8-facts-about-the-world-s-last-pandemic-in-2009.html?fbclid=IwAR10YA1Vh1zrMHthdfR1hw47ixunlVEJNbUZzHejqFXL0eHEfn-rNdwqhyI
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On behalf of our employees, I want to personally thank you for being a xxxxxx Auto Insurance policyholder. We are here to help you prevent, prepare for, and recover from life’s uncertainties. As part of our continued response to COVID-19, we recognize that you’ve been driving less as a result of shelter-in-place mandates. Learn more about how we are responding to COVID-19 here.
What you need to know
In recognition of your decreased driving, you will be receiving a 20% refund for two months of auto premiums, March and April 2020.* Your policy must be active as of April 30, 2020 to receive the refund. We will begin applying refunds in mid-May.
If you have paid your policy in full, you will receive your refund via the method by which you made your last payment.
If you pay by installments, the amount will be credited to an upcoming bill.
If your policy renews before mid-May, you will receive a refund or credit on your next policy term premium.
Every dark cloud has a silver lining.
Quote: TumblingBonesApparently a new trend is pundits stating that COVID-19 isn't as bad as cancer, car crashes, or the regular flu so why take such drastic action and destroy the economy. Here's what the data says in that regard:
For just NY State:
The full article, along with access to the data sets, is available from the journal The New Atlantis
It's still less than 150,000-200,000 deaths per million, which is what will happen without the state lockdowns.
Quote: ChumpChange
It's still less than 150,000-200,000 deaths per million, which is what will happen without the state lockdowns.
Ok let’s settle under the latest corona math from the Chump. 150k deaths per million times 330 million equals 49.5million dead in the US! I can’t make this stuff up.
Quote: DeMangoOk let’s settle under the latest corona math from the Chump. 150k deaths per million times 330 million equals 49.5million dead in the US! I can’t make this stuff up.
I thought it was 50,000 death per mil infected. The spanish flu didnt have a vaccine. Worldwide 50 mil died or 3%. But also the world had less people.
If every US citizen is infected with no cure. That is 15 mil.
Quote: KeyserHow many of you have already been tested for or plan on getting tested next week for the antibodies?
Antibody tests are almost completely unregulated, and none of the ones currently available are FDA approved. I'll take the test as soon as its available but it may be months before it's available to the general public. First responders need to get these first.
Quote: KeyserHow many of you have already been tested for or plan on getting tested next week for the antibodies?
Testing has been set up on campus for the virus itself here, but not antibody testing. If there were antibody testing, I would get it.
I don't think mortality numbers are going to be known until years after the fact, but I think the U.S., on all levels, has done a really embarrassing job of handling this. I cannot believe we are this disorganized. As I said earlier, I grew up in the era of watching men land on the moon. We are going to re-open some states without the ability to really do contact tracing. Administratively and tech-wise, this is the worst job of any western country, and that's including Italy. It's an embarrassment.
Guess what. Latest Stanford study, testing residents of Santa Clara county, found there may be 85 times the amount of infections previously predicted! AmazingQuote: jjjooogggI thought it was 50,000 death per mil infected. The spanish flu didnt have a vaccine. Worldwide 50 mil died or 3%. But also the world had less people.
If every US citizen is infected with no cure. That is 15 mil.
Quote: redietzTesting has been set up on campus for the virus itself here, but not antibody testing. If there were antibody testing, I would get it.
I don't think mortality numbers are going to be known until years after the fact, but I think the U.S., on all levels, has done a really embarrassing job of handling this. I cannot believe we are this disorganized. As I said earlier, I grew up in the era of watching men land on the moon. We are going to re-open some states without the ability to really do contact tracing. Administratively and tech-wise, this is the worst job of any western country, and that's including Italy. It's an embarrassment.
There are drive thrus for it here in the Midwest, and in just about every major city. Several new ones are opening every day. It's $40 for the live virus test with swab and it's $20 for the antibody blood tests. As far as I've heard it's in just about every major city. I Meaning there are plenty of tests around. unless you're in one of the hospitals that did a poor job of planning, that has maybe run out of swabs. If so, just go down the street to one of the drive thru clinics. I plan on going on Monday.
I'm sorry but I must completely disagree with you on the response on the virus too. I think that it's been absolutely fabulous considering how few people have died. Everyone that needed a respirator got one. We've had plenty of beds, etc... At this point I actually feel that we over reacted considering the death rate is so much lower than any of the absurd models predicted. Right now we're set to come in under the seasonal flu numbers. Now we really should turn our concerns back to the elective surgeries such as emergency heart bypass surgeries, breast cancer, bone marrow transplants, etc....
