Miscellaneous Discussion Thread II
December 20th, 2023 at 4:57:57 PM
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Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOQuote: DRich
I have no idea how one would even try to value Tesla.
I can help. It’s actually quite easy. You multiply the closing price x the number of shares outstanding. That is EXACTLY the value of Tesla.
I think what you meant to say is you don’t know what Tesla will be worth on some future date. There are hundreds of ‘expert analysts’ that will hazard a guess.
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I must slightly disagree. I don't think you can use the closing price as that number is no longer accurate. I would think you would have to use the most current price as there are plenty of trades happening off market.
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Or the price at any instant in time. But you made my point! You know EXACTLY how to value TSLA.
December 20th, 2023 at 5:05:35 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: DRich
I have no idea how one would even try to value Tesla.
I can help. It’s actually quite easy. You multiply the closing price x the number of shares outstanding. That is EXACTLY the value of Tesla.
I think what you meant to say is you don’t know what Tesla will be worth on some future date. There are hundreds of ‘expert analysts’ that will hazard a guess.
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When someone says "how do you value" they are not talking market cap, they mean how do you put a value on the company so you know if the stock is a buy or a sell.
In the case of Tesla it should be valued similar to any other auto company. It is not a "tech company" like Google. It is an industrial company with all the high fixed and variable costs that entails. Thus you take 10-15Xs earnings IMHO. But there are issues. TSLA has underinvested in restyling their cars. They kind of never do it so far. Same so far the TSLA cult has not minded. But is a guy going to replace his Model 3 with a new one that is almost exactly the same? We are now seeing TSLA cut prices to defend market share. No matter what the Muskers say, that is not a good thing.
TSLA cars are polarizing. Some people like them. To me the dash is the ugliest thing I have ever seen. It looks like someone bought a computer monitor at Wal-Mart and stuck it to the dash. They mostly make glorified hatchbacks in the age of the SUV. Their new truck looks useless as a work truck. Point being, they will not gobble market share forever. So a person valuing it had better not assume earnings will keep growing.
How long until material shortages cause battery prices to jump. Teslas are now getting to be 8-10 years old and batteries will need replaced. How will that play out? All this comes into play when you value the thing.
The current PE of TSLA is just over 80. This means if it was a small restaurant earning $100,000 per year you would pay $8 million to buy it. Does that sound reasonable to you? Current profits need to grow 4-500% to justify this price. Can that be done without massive factory investment?
My rating is HOLD. With a stop-loss 10% below today's value.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
December 20th, 2023 at 5:42:21 PM
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Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOOQuote: DRich
I have no idea how one would even try to value Tesla.
I can help. It’s actually quite easy. You multiply the closing price x the number of shares outstanding. That is EXACTLY the value of Tesla.
I think what you meant to say is you don’t know what Tesla will be worth on some future date. There are hundreds of ‘expert analysts’ that will hazard a guess.
link to original post
When someone says "how do you value" they are not talking market cap, they mean how do you put a value on the company so you know if the stock is a buy or a sell.
In the case of Tesla it should be valued similar to any other auto company. It is not a "tech company" like Google. It is an industrial company with all the high fixed and variable costs that entails. Thus you take 10-15Xs earnings IMHO. But there are issues. TSLA has underinvested in restyling their cars. They kind of never do it so far. Same so far the TSLA cult has not minded. But is a guy going to replace his Model 3 with a new one that is almost exactly the same? We are now seeing TSLA cut prices to defend market share. No matter what the Muskers say, that is not a good thing.
TSLA cars are polarizing. Some people like them. To me the dash is the ugliest thing I have ever seen. It looks like someone bought a computer monitor at Wal-Mart and stuck it to the dash. They mostly make glorified hatchbacks in the age of the SUV. Their new truck looks useless as a work truck. Point being, they will not gobble market share forever. So a person valuing it had better not assume earnings will keep growing.
How long until material shortages cause battery prices to jump. Teslas are now getting to be 8-10 years old and batteries will need replaced. How will that play out? All this comes into play when you value the thing.
The current PE of TSLA is just over 80. This means if it was a small restaurant earning $100,000 per year you would pay $8 million to buy it. Does that sound reasonable to you? Current profits need to grow 4-500% to justify this price. Can that be done without massive factory investment?
My rating is HOLD. With a stop-loss 10% below today's value.
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That’s a LONG post. TODAY, TSLA is worth what it’s price is x number of shares outstanding. If you were right it would NOT have the share price it does. What you are actually saying is YOU are better at determining the VALUE of a company than ‘the market’ is. It has had a ‘ridiculous’ PE for the past decade. If you used your logic back a decade ago you’d own none. And I’d own the $100k or so I do after putting in a small fraction of that.
December 20th, 2023 at 6:08:42 PM
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Quote: AZDuffman[ Their new truck looks useless as a work truck.
That truck looks like it was designed just to troll truck owners. (and perhaps I wouldn't put it past Musk to do something so odd and random as such an expensive joke. Well, an expensive joke to most people.)
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
December 20th, 2023 at 7:18:47 PM
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Tesla isn't an auto company. If anything, one might say they are a battery company. It's a solid company, currently run by a man I'm not sure is 100% rational. For that alone, I wouldn't touch it. I think it is over-valued, but it will only become more over-valued.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
December 20th, 2023 at 8:22:54 PM
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Quote: MrVBiden has lost the support of these deadbeats as he couldn't deliver on his promise of absolving them of debt.
Expect him to try to woo them back.
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Warning for inflammatory political speech.
I may be excessively lenient due to proximity of the solstice and anticipated festivities and mirth.
May the cards fall in your favor.
December 20th, 2023 at 9:56:18 PM
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Give mirth a chance!
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
December 21st, 2023 at 2:41:50 AM
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Quote: SOOPOO
That’s a LONG post. TODAY, TSLA is worth what it’s price is x number of shares outstanding. If you were right it would NOT have the share price it does. What you are actually saying is YOU are better at determining the VALUE of a company than ‘the market’ is. It has had a ‘ridiculous’ PE for the past decade. If you used your logic back a decade ago you’d own none. And I’d own the $100k or so I do after putting in a small fraction of that.
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Do you understand what it means to value a stock? Have you ever read a report on a stock by an analyst?
Did you buy lots of dotcom stocks in 1999 because they were correctly valued just because the market said so?
When you value a stock you figure their earnings and then figure what assets it has that might be worth something. For example, back in the day Eastern Airlines had very little earnings so very little value there. But they had a profitable shuttle and lots of gates and slots that could be sold off. So a person would calculate all that value and then compare it to what the stock was trading at.
IOW, what it was trading at was not what it was worth.
TSLA is not worth what it is trading at. And this is what someone means when they ask "what is that company worth?"
You are answering "what is that company trading at" or "what is its market cap?"
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
December 21st, 2023 at 5:06:33 AM
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Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOO
That’s a LONG post. TODAY, TSLA is worth what it’s price is x number of shares outstanding. If you were right it would NOT have the share price it does. What you are actually saying is YOU are better at determining the VALUE of a company than ‘the market’ is. It has had a ‘ridiculous’ PE for the past decade. If you used your logic back a decade ago you’d own none. And I’d own the $100k or so I do after putting in a small fraction of that.
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Do you understand what it means to value a stock? Have you ever read a report on a stock by an analyst?
Did you buy lots of dotcom stocks in 1999 because they were correctly valued just because the market said so?
When you value a stock you figure their earnings and then figure what assets it has that might be worth something. For example, back in the day Eastern Airlines had very little earnings so very little value there. But they had a profitable shuttle and lots of gates and slots that could be sold off. So a person would calculate all that value and then compare it to what the stock was trading at.
IOW, what it was trading at was not what it was worth.
TSLA is not worth what it is trading at. And this is what someone means when they ask "what is that company worth?"
You are answering "what is that company trading at" or "what is its market cap?"
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a great many of those who trade stocks (which I don't do - I'm a buy and hold guy of the S&P 500 index fund) - are not going to use the method of valuation that you are recommending
they are going to be looking for stocks with "sex appeal" - capable of going way up beyond the traditional way to assess their price
your comparison to the dotcom bubble is not a good one - there was a buying frenzy and people were buying just because they were dotcoms
Tesla - is definitely not in that category
I'm not saying it's a great buy right now - much has changed since 10 years ago - but at certain times in the past as Soopoo indicated it would have been even if the stock price was quite high based on its earnings and other measures
.
Please don't feed the trolls
December 21st, 2023 at 5:06:51 AM
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Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOO
That’s a LONG post. TODAY, TSLA is worth what it’s price is x number of shares outstanding. If you were right it would NOT have the share price it does. What you are actually saying is YOU are better at determining the VALUE of a company than ‘the market’ is. It has had a ‘ridiculous’ PE for the past decade. If you used your logic back a decade ago you’d own none. And I’d own the $100k or so I do after putting in a small fraction of that.
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Do you understand what it means to value a stock? Have you ever read a report on a stock by an analyst?
You are answering "what is that company trading at" or "what is its market cap?"
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Yes. And yes. I’ll repeat my simple concept. The stock is NOW worth its share price x the number of shares that exist. Regardless of what an analyst says. Regardless of what its PE is.
You and the analyst are making a guess as to what will happen tomorrow, or next week, or next year. And as usual, those guesses are…. just guesses! How long will the analysts have to be continually wrong on TSLA until you would change your mind? 10 years ago it was (split adjusted) around $10. It’s around $250 now. It’s always had a ridiculously high PE. That’s once it even had earnings!
December 21st, 2023 at 5:55:57 AM
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Semantics argument....
December 21st, 2023 at 6:46:47 AM
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Quote: mcallister3200Semantics argument....
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I agree with you. It’s just tiresome hearing someone say ‘there’s no way CompanyX is worth $XYZ’ when it IS worth XYZ! When they mean ‘it shouldn’t be worth $XYZ’.
No snow on the ground for Buffalo Xmas. Pisses my wife off.
December 21st, 2023 at 8:02:36 AM
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Something is worth what someone else will pay for it. If Tesla is worth more than Ford, it is because people are willing to pay more for Tesla than for Ford.
It's an awkward situation as I believe Tesla wanted to be out of the car business by now.
It's an awkward situation as I believe Tesla wanted to be out of the car business by now.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
December 21st, 2023 at 10:28:22 AM
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"Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock appears to be significantly undervalued. The company's financial condition is strong, and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks better than 97.03% of 1079 companies in the Vehicles & Parts industry." Yahoo Finance 6 weeks ago
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 21st, 2023 at 10:44:36 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: mcallister3200Semantics argument....
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I agree with you. It’s just tiresome hearing someone say ‘there’s no way CompanyX is worth $XYZ’ when it IS worth XYZ! When they mean ‘it shouldn’t be worth $XYZ’.
No snow on the ground for Buffalo Xmas. Pisses my wife off.
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Get over it because that is how people talk.
It is like if someone asked “what do you do?” Do you tell the person “I post on Internet forums, I have a beer at the 716, I watch the Bills….”
Or do you tell them what you do for a living because that is what they are really asking and anyone who speaks English as their first language knows this?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
December 21st, 2023 at 11:22:14 AM
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Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOOQuote: mcallister3200Semantics argument....
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I agree with you. It’s just tiresome hearing someone say ‘there’s no way CompanyX is worth $XYZ’ when it IS worth XYZ! When they mean ‘it shouldn’t be worth $XYZ’.
No snow on the ground for Buffalo Xmas. Pisses my wife off.
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Get over it because that is how people talk.
It is like if someone asked “what do you do?” Do you tell the person “I post on Internet forums, I have a beer at the 716, I watch the Bills….”
Or do you tell them what you do for a living because that is what they are really asking and anyone who speaks English as their first language knows this?
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How about this? Get over it that you can’t figure out what a company is worth…!?!?
Seriously….. just answer this question….. no snark…..
Right now, what is TSLA worth?
December 21st, 2023 at 11:38:05 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOOQuote: mcallister3200Semantics argument....
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I agree with you. It’s just tiresome hearing someone say ‘there’s no way CompanyX is worth $XYZ’ when it IS worth XYZ! When they mean ‘it shouldn’t be worth $XYZ’.
No snow on the ground for Buffalo Xmas. Pisses my wife off.
link to original post
Get over it because that is how people talk.
It is like if someone asked “what do you do?” Do you tell the person “I post on Internet forums, I have a beer at the 716, I watch the Bills….”
Or do you tell them what you do for a living because that is what they are really asking and anyone who speaks English as their first language knows this?
link to original post
How about this? Get over it that you can’t figure out what a company is worth…!?!?
Seriously….. just answer this question….. no snark…..
Right now, what is TSLA worth?
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I can only give a drive by evaluation. A full analysis would mean pulling 10k, checking balance sheet and income statement, their debt situation, checking every market they are in and projecting sales, plus other stuff. 6-7 hours of work for a stock I would not touch.
But drive by I would say the whole thing is worth about 2/3 of the market cap of the average of ford and GM.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
December 21st, 2023 at 11:39:34 AM
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Who cares what it is worth today? I want to know what it will be worth in eighteen months.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
December 21st, 2023 at 11:54:42 AM
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Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOOQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOOQuote: mcallister3200Semantics argument....
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I agree with you. It’s just tiresome hearing someone say ‘there’s no way CompanyX is worth $XYZ’ when it IS worth XYZ! When they mean ‘it shouldn’t be worth $XYZ’.
No snow on the ground for Buffalo Xmas. Pisses my wife off.
link to original post
Get over it because that is how people talk.
It is like if someone asked “what do you do?” Do you tell the person “I post on Internet forums, I have a beer at the 716, I watch the Bills….”
Or do you tell them what you do for a living because that is what they are really asking and anyone who speaks English as their first language knows this?
link to original post
How about this? Get over it that you can’t figure out what a company is worth…!?!?
Seriously….. just answer this question….. no snark…..
Right now, what is TSLA worth?
link to original post
I can only give a drive by evaluation. A full analysis would mean pulling 10k, checking balance sheet and income statement, their debt situation, checking every market they are in and projecting sales, plus other stuff. 6-7 hours of work for a stock I would not touch.
But drive by I would say the whole thing is worth about 2/3 of the market cap of the average of ford and GM.
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Wow. Ford and GM are around 50 billion each. TSLA is around 800 billion. So you think an 800 billion company is really worth around 35 billion? OK…..
I guess real investors do it differently than you do….
December 21st, 2023 at 1:05:04 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOOQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOOQuote: mcallister3200Semantics argument....
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I agree with you. It’s just tiresome hearing someone say ‘there’s no way CompanyX is worth $XYZ’ when it IS worth XYZ! When they mean ‘it shouldn’t be worth $XYZ’.
No snow on the ground for Buffalo Xmas. Pisses my wife off.
link to original post
Get over it because that is how people talk.
It is like if someone asked “what do you do?” Do you tell the person “I post on Internet forums, I have a beer at the 716, I watch the Bills….”
Or do you tell them what you do for a living because that is what they are really asking and anyone who speaks English as their first language knows this?
link to original post
How about this? Get over it that you can’t figure out what a company is worth…!?!?
Seriously….. just answer this question….. no snark…..
Right now, what is TSLA worth?
link to original post
I can only give a drive by evaluation. A full analysis would mean pulling 10k, checking balance sheet and income statement, their debt situation, checking every market they are in and projecting sales, plus other stuff. 6-7 hours of work for a stock I would not touch.
But drive by I would say the whole thing is worth about 2/3 of the market cap of the average of ford and GM.
link to original post
Wow. Ford and GM are around 50 billion each. TSLA is around 800 billion. So you think an 800 billion company is really worth around 35 billion? OK…..
I guess real investors do it differently than you do….
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No, you think a $40 billion company is $800 billion. Like you said you would pay $8 million for the Mighty Taco location making $100K per year!
You have to define "real" investors. To me "real" investors are the people who think of what something is worth by ROI. People that are rational. Saying a smaller auto company is worth close to what the rest of the industry is combined is not rational. I do not think a hedge fund manager says, "Well, it trades at $800 billion market cap so gosh darn it is worth that!"
Did you think Priceline was worth the same as Delta in the late 1990s like the market said it was?
Your "real" investors thought Enron was worth $70 billion until Bethany McClean pointed out it was a house of cards.
Look at numbers, not hype.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
December 21st, 2023 at 6:58:31 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOOQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOOQuote: mcallister3200Semantics argument....
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I agree with you. It’s just tiresome hearing someone say ‘there’s no way CompanyX is worth $XYZ’ when it IS worth XYZ! When they mean ‘it shouldn’t be worth $XYZ’.
No snow on the ground for Buffalo Xmas. Pisses my wife off.
link to original post
Get over it because that is how people talk.
It is like if someone asked “what do you do?” Do you tell the person “I post on Internet forums, I have a beer at the 716, I watch the Bills….”
Or do you tell them what you do for a living because that is what they are really asking and anyone who speaks English as their first language knows this?
link to original post
How about this? Get over it that you can’t figure out what a company is worth…!?!?
Seriously….. just answer this question….. no snark…..
Right now, what is TSLA worth?
link to original post
I can only give a drive by evaluation. A full analysis would mean pulling 10k, checking balance sheet and income statement, their debt situation, checking every market they are in and projecting sales, plus other stuff. 6-7 hours of work for a stock I would not touch.
But drive by I would say the whole thing is worth about 2/3 of the market cap of the average of ford and GM.
link to original post
Wow. Ford and GM are around 50 billion each. TSLA is around 800 billion. So you think an 800 billion company is really worth around 35 billion? OK…..
I guess real investors do it differently than you do….
link to original post
Tell me, is Warren Buffet a “real” investor? Was Charlie Munger? Because what AD describes is the Berkshire Hathaway approach exactly.
"Truth is ever to be found in the simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things."
-- Isaac Newton
December 21st, 2023 at 7:18:15 PM
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Quote: JimRockfordQuote: SOOPOOQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOOQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOOQuote: mcallister3200Semantics argument....
link to original post
I agree with you. It’s just tiresome hearing someone say ‘there’s no way CompanyX is worth $XYZ’ when it IS worth XYZ! When they mean ‘it shouldn’t be worth $XYZ’.
No snow on the ground for Buffalo Xmas. Pisses my wife off.
link to original post
Get over it because that is how people talk.
It is like if someone asked “what do you do?” Do you tell the person “I post on Internet forums, I have a beer at the 716, I watch the Bills….”
Or do you tell them what you do for a living because that is what they are really asking and anyone who speaks English as their first language knows this?
link to original post
How about this? Get over it that you can’t figure out what a company is worth…!?!?
Seriously….. just answer this question….. no snark…..
Right now, what is TSLA worth?
link to original post
I can only give a drive by evaluation. A full analysis would mean pulling 10k, checking balance sheet and income statement, their debt situation, checking every market they are in and projecting sales, plus other stuff. 6-7 hours of work for a stock I would not touch.
But drive by I would say the whole thing is worth about 2/3 of the market cap of the average of ford and GM.
link to original post
Wow. Ford and GM are around 50 billion each. TSLA is around 800 billion. So you think an 800 billion company is really worth around 35 billion? OK…..
I guess real investors do it differently than you do….
link to original post
Tell me, is Warren Buffet a “real” investor? Was Charlie Munger? Because what AD describes is the Berkshire Hathaway approach exactly.
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Of course they are real investors. My point is that there is not one way to value a company. It ‘feels’ better to own a company with a low PE ratio. Then they miss earnings by a penny and lose 20% of their value. It may not make sense to you (or me!) but it is what it is. Tesla may sell fewer cars than Ford/GM…. May make less money than Ford/GM…. But it’s worth more than 15 times either of them. You may not like it. But it’s true.
And I do NOT purport to think I really understand why!
(I own Berkshire Hathaway and Tesla!)
December 22nd, 2023 at 5:22:13 AM
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Quote: MrVBiden has lost the support of these deadbeats as he couldn't deliver on his promise of absolving them of debt.
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Political statement. Three-day suspension.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 22nd, 2023 at 6:00:18 AM
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Quote: TigerWuImagine giving millions of teenagers and twenty-somethings with no jobs and no credit histories loans for tens of thousands of dollars each and not thinking it's going to turn into a huge s***show in some way.
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Combine that with the state of the world, or their belief in the state of the world that there’s no real future for them so may as well spend it now. Whether it’s not believing they’ll ever be able to buy a home in a region they consider livable or a world that’s going to suck because of climate stuff, a lot of emerging adults feel defeated and no hope for life in a way that typically doesn’t happen to anyone until their in 40’s-50’s , they feel defeated before the game’s even started.
I’m not commenting on how true their plight is, but many of them believe it, again in a way that typically doesn’t happen to people at that age. Going to be a lot of bums out of there…but even among those successful, there can be a mindset of if the future is going to be awful why save for that and not spend it in the future.
December 22nd, 2023 at 6:10:14 AM
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.
Warren Buffett is a great and legendary investor
He is now 93 years old and still runnng BRK
but in the last 10 years BRK has only about matched the S&P 500 - not beaten it - see link
and according to many analysts the S&P 500 as a whole is way overvalued
obviously, there's more than one way to approach long term investing
https://portfolioslab.com/tools/stock-comparison/BRK-B/SPY
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Quote: OrangePi5it is said that Berk-Hath has averaged about 22% a year since the 60s.
Quote: JimRockford
Tell me, is Warren Buffet a “real” investor? Was Charlie Munger? Because what AD describes is the Berkshire Hathaway approach exactly.
Warren Buffett is a great and legendary investor
He is now 93 years old and still runnng BRK
but in the last 10 years BRK has only about matched the S&P 500 - not beaten it - see link
and according to many analysts the S&P 500 as a whole is way overvalued
obviously, there's more than one way to approach long term investing
https://portfolioslab.com/tools/stock-comparison/BRK-B/SPY
.
Please don't feed the trolls
December 22nd, 2023 at 8:02:00 AM
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If your portfolio produces the results you need, why worry about your neighbor's portfolio and if he did better or not? I don't understand the obsession with beating anyone. Has your portfolio provided for your wants and your future needs? If so, you won; who cares if someone else wins more? My goal was never to beat Sam or Harry. It was to reach the target I set for myself. Having accomplished that, why obsess that someone else did it better or someone took a year longer to achieve the same goal?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
December 22nd, 2023 at 8:28:19 AM
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Quote: billryanIf your portfolio produces the results you need, why worry about your neighbor's portfolio and if he did better or not? I don't understand the obsession with beating anyone. Has your portfolio provided for your wants and your future needs? If so, you won; who cares if someone else wins more? My goal was never to beat Sam or Harry. It was to reach the target I set for myself. Having accomplished that, why obsess that someone else did it better or someone took a year longer to achieve the same goal?
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to me the answer is obvious
in whatever a person does he should do the best he can
having a benchmark such as the S&P to compare is a way to judge personal performance
it's not about beating my neighbor - I could care less what my neighbor does
if I could do better why would I not want to do better________?
even if just doing whatever gets me the funds that I need - by doing better I will have more to leave to charity or to my other half when my time is up - if a nursing home doesn't get it all___________________:)
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Please don't feed the trolls
December 22nd, 2023 at 8:40:42 AM
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The S&P tracks a couple hundred large-cap US companies and doesn't factor in dividends. It's a map of a small slice of the overall market. Anyone investing only in a tracking fund is missing out on a huge market segment
A diversified portfolio doesn't mean having a dozen funds that all track the same thing.
A diversified portfolio doesn't mean having a dozen funds that all track the same thing.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
December 22nd, 2023 at 9:03:22 AM
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Quote: billryanThe S&P tracks a COUPLE HUNDRED large-cap US companies and DOESN'T FACTOR IN DIVIDENDS. It's a map of a small slice of the overall market. Anyone investing only in a tracking fund is missing out on a huge market segment
a couple of hundred_________?
try 500
that's why it's called the S&P 500
yes, it doesn't factor in dividends - when you consider those the return is even higher than what is quoted - I re-invest mine which what I believe most do
yes, you miss out on other market segments
who cares - not me
I feel it's the best I can do
I don't want to handicap stocks
for me, it's an easy win -
as I posted earlier the New York Times reported that only 10% of other mutual funds managed by pros have beaten it over the past 20 years - the link is back up in the thread
and those are pros - not individuals not working in the field as those posting here
actually I do own another fund - a technology index which has been beating the S&P 500 by a lot
I got into it because tech seems to dominate everything now
but for a long time I didn't
and if I didn't have that one - I wouldn't be at all unhappy
.
Please don't feed the trolls
December 22nd, 2023 at 10:00:24 AM
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How many years has the Windows start button been on the bottom left-hand side?
I finally broke down and upgraded(it's probably a downgrade) from Windows 10 to the new version of Windows 11. Why in God's name would they put the start button and search in the center and then make it a multi-step process to move it to the left-hand side? At least let me drag and drop it wherever I want.
I finally broke down and upgraded(it's probably a downgrade) from Windows 10 to the new version of Windows 11. Why in God's name would they put the start button and search in the center and then make it a multi-step process to move it to the left-hand side? At least let me drag and drop it wherever I want.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
December 22nd, 2023 at 10:17:50 AM
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Astute individual investors run rings around most funds. Imagine a race between a cigar speed boat and a cruise ship. One is small, lean, and agile. The other is not.
Suppose I sell all my Pepsi and buy Coca-Cola; no one will notice. If Black Rock does it, it triggers a seismic event.
In many cases, I've been studying a stock longer than the Wall St. guy has been alive and picked up a trick or two. One is that large-cap stocks are a fraction of the overall market. Another is just how powerful deferred taxes can be.
I think it is as easy to pick stocks as it is to count cards. Most people are capable of it but have different priorities. Then you have people who mostly learn; sometimes they make money, sometimes they don't. Now you have people who bought into one of the most incredible bull runs in history and think they are invulnerable.
Suppose I sell all my Pepsi and buy Coca-Cola; no one will notice. If Black Rock does it, it triggers a seismic event.
In many cases, I've been studying a stock longer than the Wall St. guy has been alive and picked up a trick or two. One is that large-cap stocks are a fraction of the overall market. Another is just how powerful deferred taxes can be.
I think it is as easy to pick stocks as it is to count cards. Most people are capable of it but have different priorities. Then you have people who mostly learn; sometimes they make money, sometimes they don't. Now you have people who bought into one of the most incredible bull runs in history and think they are invulnerable.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
December 22nd, 2023 at 10:40:37 AM
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Quote: billryanAstute individual investors run rings around most funds.
In many cases, I've been studying a stock longer than the Wall St. guy has been alive and picked up a trick or two. One is that large-cap stocks are a fraction of the overall market. Another is just how powerful deferred taxes can be.
I think it is as easy to pick stocks as it is to count cards.
you apparently have skills well beyond mine
good for you
I've paid very little in tax with my funds
I'm done here - I've run my mouth for too long
go ahead and enjoy getting the last word
you deserve it - you obviously know much more than me
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Please don't feed the trolls
December 22nd, 2023 at 10:44:08 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster
to me the answer is obvious
in whatever a person does he should do the best he can
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(snip!)
Best is subjective.
There may be other considerations and constraints than simply maximizing return.
I know a number of people who have moral objections to how certain companies profit, and want no part of it. (This usually shows up as a refusal to invest in Altria, despite their fine products.)
May the cards fall in your favor.
December 22nd, 2023 at 10:57:58 AM
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Quote: DieterQuote: lilredrooster
to me the answer is obvious
in whatever a person does he should do the best he can
link to original post(snip!)
Best is subjective.
There may be other considerations and constraints than simply maximizing return.
I know a number of people who have moral objections to how certain companies profit, and want no part of it. (This usually shows up as a refusal to invest in Altria, despite their fine products.)
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whenever a person tries to make the best decision about a great many different things
it almost always requires subjectivity
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Please don't feed the trolls
December 23rd, 2023 at 8:27:46 AM
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.
I don't watch a lot of TV - about an hour a day
during the Holidays the charities really ramp up
you see fundraising commericals for Children with Cancer, deformed children, abused animals, Wounded Warriors and many others
what kind of human being leaves a dog out in the freezing snow and ice chained to a tree_______?__________a heart of darkness
seeing this kind of thing can really get to you_____________________________)-:
.
I don't watch a lot of TV - about an hour a day
during the Holidays the charities really ramp up
you see fundraising commericals for Children with Cancer, deformed children, abused animals, Wounded Warriors and many others
what kind of human being leaves a dog out in the freezing snow and ice chained to a tree_______?__________a heart of darkness
seeing this kind of thing can really get to you_____________________________)-:
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Dec 23, 2023
Please don't feed the trolls
December 23rd, 2023 at 9:13:53 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster.
I don't watch a lot of TV - about an hour a day
during the Holidays the charities really ramp up
you see fundraising commericals for Children with Cancer, deformed children,
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I like the one St Jude's had a few years ago. There was this adorable kid who was obviously probably a dwarf and he had a couple deformities and they trotted him out there for like 3 years in a row. But it was the same videos, he hadn't grown at all he was still a kid. It was hilarious, he was so effective at raising money they could not afford to show how he looked now. I really don't like these plea's for money because they're so blatant in their attempt to pull at your heartstrings. But it works people donate lots of money at Christmas.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 23rd, 2023 at 10:56:08 AM
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These posts reminded me that I need to update a few auto-deductions. The $19 or $20 a month I give them is worth half what it was when I started.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
December 23rd, 2023 at 11:24:49 AM
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you could probably get me going on charities in general, but when it comes to these types there is a long-lived scam that everyone should know about and tell to everyone they know:Quote: lilredrooster.what kind of human being leaves a dog out in the freezing snow and ice chained to a tree
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The Societies for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals are not set up as a national organization, for whatever reason. Your local one probably is not connected as an organization to any other SPCA.
However, The American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals [probably accidentally] discovered that people *think* the SPCAs are one national organization and that they, the ASPCA, can advertise all over the country and people will donate to them thinking all SPCAs benefit.
Not true:
https://environmentandwelfare.com/rating/american-society-for-the-prevention-of-cruelty-to-animals/Quote: linkDespite its name, the ASPCA is not affiliated with local SPCAs and contributes very little funding to animal shelters. In a recent CBS investigation on ASPCA’s relationship (or lack thereof) with shelters, the head of the Nassau County SPCA remarked: “The major problems that most SPCAs have is that the ASPCA does not fund these agencies. We receive no money from them at all.” Another shelter leader in Houston observed, “I would challenge the fact that… people know the difference when the fundraising tactics would lead you to believe that money given to the ASPCA trickles down into local organizations.”
California SPCAs have accused the ASPCA of using “unfair and deceptive” fundraising tactics, profiting off people’s mistaken belief that the group is the umbrella organization for thousands of humane societies in the country.
Have you donated to the ASPCA? they are the ones with those commercials, nobody else can afford to do them. And so the money you gave went to making more commercials, and certain people rich
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
December 23rd, 2023 at 11:39:16 AM
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Let’s say you run a real charity. Does good works. Last year you raised $1,000,000 to help the poor, animals, the environment, etc…. Your expenses to raise this money was essentially zero.
Shady guy comes to you and says he can get you $2,000,000 next year if you let him market you. He does so, and collects 8,000,000 in your charities name. He keeps $6,000,000, your charity gets the $2,000,000 promised. You can now do double the good works as the previous year.
Is that a success? Or does THE CHARITY care about how the money comes in and if the donors should or would care?
Shady guy comes to you and says he can get you $2,000,000 next year if you let him market you. He does so, and collects 8,000,000 in your charities name. He keeps $6,000,000, your charity gets the $2,000,000 promised. You can now do double the good works as the previous year.
Is that a success? Or does THE CHARITY care about how the money comes in and if the donors should or would care?
December 23rd, 2023 at 12:57:38 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOLet’s say you run a real charity. Does good works. Last year you raised $1,000,000 to help the poor, animals, the environment, etc…. Your expenses to raise this money was essentially zero.
Shady guy comes to you and says he can get you $2,000,000 next year if you let him market you. He does so, and collects 8,000,000 in your charities name. He keeps $6,000,000, your charity gets the $2,000,000 promised. You can now do double the good works as the previous year.
Is that a success? Or does THE CHARITY care about how the money comes in and if the donors should or would care?
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The charity-industrial complex in the USA needs to be reined in. St Jude does very good work and is one of the better ones. ASPCA uses the animals to help raise money instead of the other way around as it should be. I worked with one in WNY that took 85% of what they raised. The AG eventually went undercover and shut them down. For every good one there are several bad ones. Even some good ones get hooked up with bad fundraisers.
Meanwhile. lots people want to work for them, often because they do not like the idea of "profit." But what they do not know is nonprofit is so often just a professional begging organization. What I saw from meeting many is hard to believe.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
December 23rd, 2023 at 1:05:54 PM
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www.charitynavigator.com does good work rating charities and disclosing their expense ratio vs the % of donations that actually go to the causes.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
December 23rd, 2023 at 1:08:43 PM
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Quote: unJonwww.charitynavigator.com does good work rating charities and disclosing their expense ratio vs the % of donations that actually go to the causes.
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Also probably better to go local. Don't give to the ASPCA, give to the local dog pound.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
December 23rd, 2023 at 2:04:44 PM
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I used to give to the bell ringers for Salvation Army back when they were unpaid. I don't give much to charities. Maybe one charity per year.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
December 23rd, 2023 at 2:10:11 PM
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Quote: DRichI used to give to the bell ringers for Salvation Army back when they were unpaid. I don't give much to charities. Maybe one charity per year.
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I tend to give when a friend/colleague asks. ‘Ride for Roswell’. (A hospital). ADA bike ride. Nickel City Rescue (dogs). Sloan Kettering. Etc….
December 23rd, 2023 at 2:49:17 PM
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The comic book forum I frequent runs charity drives regularly.
Last week, someone came looking for information about a member who sold some books but hadn't delivered them. We quickly discovered the seller, a freelance artist, had a stroke two weeks ago and is in rehab. Meanwhile, his finances are horrible and he got hit with several thousand dollars in deductibles. To make it worse, many of the deductibles will need to be paid again in January.
Three people started fundraisers for him and in two days they've raised $7,000 in cash, and people have committed to over $17,000.
I've never met the seller, nor done business with him but that forum takes care of their own.
I can't recall any such efforts here. I wonder how successful it would be.
Last week, someone came looking for information about a member who sold some books but hadn't delivered them. We quickly discovered the seller, a freelance artist, had a stroke two weeks ago and is in rehab. Meanwhile, his finances are horrible and he got hit with several thousand dollars in deductibles. To make it worse, many of the deductibles will need to be paid again in January.
Three people started fundraisers for him and in two days they've raised $7,000 in cash, and people have committed to over $17,000.
I've never met the seller, nor done business with him but that forum takes care of their own.
I can't recall any such efforts here. I wonder how successful it would be.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
December 23rd, 2023 at 2:51:16 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOLet’s say you run a real charity. Does good works. Last year you raised $1,000,000 to help the poor, animals, the environment, etc…. Your expenses to raise this money was essentially zero.
Shady guy comes to you and says he can get you $2,000,000 next year if you let him market you. He does so, and collects 8,000,000 in your charities name. He keeps $6,000,000, your charity gets the $2,000,000 promised. You can now do double the good works as the previous year.
Is that a success? Or does THE CHARITY care about how the money comes in and if the donors should or would care?
link to original post
This sort of thing makes me think of all the douchebags who run scams, ponzi or not, and end up busted because they didn't put any of the invested money into actual investments, while if they'd just made it clear in the prospectus that some of the investment will be used for this or that, no one could have touched them. Or at least invested most of the money, and siphoned off only some. But no, they have to spend most of the money on themselves other than the little they pay back to keep investors thinking it's legitimate, and invest none of it.
Billionaire fund owners don't necessarily turn a profit for their investors, but still make enough to be billionaires.
Just like in political contributions where the money ends up used for legal defense, it's all kosher as long as it's somehow spelled out.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
December 23rd, 2023 at 3:07:25 PM
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Quote: billryanThe comic book forum I frequent runs charity drives regularly.
Last week, someone came looking for information about a member who sold some books but hadn't delivered them. We quickly discovered the seller, a freelance artist, had a stroke two weeks ago and is in rehab. Meanwhile, his finances are horrible and he got hit with several thousand dollars in deductibles. To make it worse, many of the deductibles will need to be paid again in January.
Three people started fundraisers for him and in two days they've raised $7,000 in cash, and people have committed to over $17,000.
I've never met the seller, nor done business with him but that forum takes care of their own.
I can't recall any such efforts here. I wonder how successful it would be.
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Grassroots things like that work. Not money but we had a woman had some kind of cancer or something was laying her up for a month or more. She did not have the PTO to cover it. CEO of the company (sounds more impressive than it is, about 150 employees) sends an email telling us about it. I reply back asking if maybe some of us could donate our PTO time and explained I heard of it happening elsewhere. In about 5 minutes he takes up the idea and says company will match it. I forget if I got an attaboy or not but I gladly gave a day and I did not even know her. I forget how much time she got but IIRC it covered her. I felt good having done something.
Aforesaid CEO could be a real piece of work when he wanted to.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
December 25th, 2023 at 6:50:54 AM
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Who said romance goes away after marriage?
My wife's Christmas presents consisted of a refrigerator, a cheese grater, and a toilet seat. Love is in the air.
My wife's Christmas presents consisted of a refrigerator, a cheese grater, and a toilet seat. Love is in the air.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
December 25th, 2023 at 7:42:56 AM
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For some reason I received (really nice) socks from wife, her daughter, and her daughter’s girlfriend! They must have at one point bemoaned my sock selections.
I got away with calling Costa Rica trip Xmas gift to wife and her daughters.
I’m Jewish so my kids get nada from me…. butttt….. wife bought them tons of shit anyways….
Merry Xmas to all that celebrate…..
I used to work almost every Xmas. Would ‘trade’ a Saturday in the summer for it. A win-win for me and the Christian!
I got away with calling Costa Rica trip Xmas gift to wife and her daughters.
I’m Jewish so my kids get nada from me…. butttt….. wife bought them tons of shit anyways….
Merry Xmas to all that celebrate…..
I used to work almost every Xmas. Would ‘trade’ a Saturday in the summer for it. A win-win for me and the Christian!
December 25th, 2023 at 8:33:53 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOFor some reason I received (really nice) socks from wife, her daughter, and her daughter’s girlfriend! They must have at one point bemoaned my sock selections.
I got away with calling Costa Rica trip Xmas gift to wife and her daughters.
I’m Jewish so my kids get nada from me…. butttt….. wife bought them tons of shit anyways….
Merry Xmas to all that celebrate…..
I used to work almost every Xmas. Would ‘trade’ a Saturday in the summer for it. A win-win for me and the Christian!
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Do people schedule operations for Christmas? I realize the whole world doesn't celebrate it, but I'd be reluctant to have a procedure on a day when the hospital has a skeleton crew.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
