Baccaratfrom79's Response to the Board
Details about what we do, what we earn, what our family looks like should probably best be kept confidential.
Not that I won't read what someone posts about these things: it is "interesting," but of zero relevance on a Vegas / math-based gambling related board.
When a person harps on how successful they are in gambling and in life it leads one to wonder whether they are being completely truthful, especially when they've already been called out on a "misstatement of fact."
This is not the right board to play "Mine is bigger than yours."
Quote: RonCWhy is it so important to put this guys every statement under some kind of microscope?
--I see a guy who works his butt off trying to grow a business. His business is in the early stages for him, so he works 2 to 2 1/2 times the hours most of us work. He proved he works a lot, who the heck cares about an exact number of hours?
--He does dangerous work most of us wouldn't do. Anything involving being on a highway with the idiots who think they are God's gift to driving (while drinking or texting even) is in work I would not want to do.
--He makes money by working hard and providing a necessary service. The "toys" needed to do this are expensive.
--Based on previous experience with him as a member on another board, he has likely owned and sold businesses in the past and he probably has some decent personal wealth but wants to keep building that.
--He plays Baccarat. Baccarat players don't think that they are APs and they don't exactly have a "system" like a Martingale but they do watch for patterns. Dice players look for hot shooters, card guys bump up their bets when they are going well (not including AP players in this...they play to their advantage based on the count), slot players try to find a hot machine, etc.
--The math doesn't always work in the short run even if it does in the long run. I saw two guys this week toss ten quarter bets on the "12" during a one hour period. They won three times. That is $250 bet with $2250 returned. Meanwhile, their bets on the "good bets" that work out better with the math lost about half of their chip stack. The math is correct and the casino will win in the long run...but we play against them 4 hours or so a day; they play for 24 hours a day. Sometimes that is bound to work in our favor by variance.
--A player can cut their losses early on a trip that starts off in the dump. Though they may never know what would have happened, they won't lose any more than they allow themselves to lose. On the flip side, if they start off winning they can keep going and possibly even have breaking even as the low point once an early win is established.
Player goes in with $20k and loses $15k...shuts down or only plays until he loses $20k. He lost $20k.
Player goes in with $20k and wins $20k. He keeps going. Some losing sessions and some winners, but he stays above $20k and builds on it.
I don't have experience at that level, but my experience tells me that I win more sessions that I win the first bet on than that I lose the first bet on. My problem is that I like to play, so I am likely to continue to play even though I have clearly seen that trend. You can tear into that with math but there is no need to...
I like the smart math people here. I understand tearing down systems. I just don't get attacking people who play a negative expectation game and understand that but decide to follow their chosen method of playing to enjoy that negative game. I see idiots who don't know squat about the game we are playing let alone the math of it win at the craps table all the time.
For me it has nothing to do with his baccarat play. I thoroughly enjoy those stories, even the occasional bragging. It's the other things like the accident involving his employee and his helicopter rescue from the roof of the MGM in the 1980 fire. I have a connection to that fire and asked a few simple questions. I also asked about the accident and he was evasive about both. Why post something if you're unwilling to discuss it?
Sometimes people put themselves under the microscope, not the other way around.
In one post he said he lost two employees from accidents, in another it's three.
Quote: RonCI understand that some are skeptical. Can you hold on to that skepticism until his upcoming trip and see what Ace has to say? Give the guy a chance...
Again, no opinion on the baccarat stories. No one should be cross examined or called on every word. I don't think that has happened but work with us a little. Jeez.
Quote: rdw4potusBased on the amount of time you claim to work,
When I was in the antique biz, and
then selling on Ebay in the late 90's
and early 2000's, I easily worked 16
hours a day, 7 days a week. Many
self employed people do, you have
to, if you don't do the work it won't
get done. I even worked Xmas Day
every year. In the other businesses I
owned I worked 80-100 hour weeks.
My wife owned an antique mall for
15 years and she was there 12 hours
a day 7 days a week. You just do it,
it's a way of life.
Quote: EvenBobWhen I was in the antique biz, and
then selling on Ebay in the late 90's
and early 2000's, I easily worked 16
hours a day, 7 days a week. Many
self employed people do, you have
to, if you don't do the work it won't
get done. I even worked Xmas Day
every year. In the other businesses I
owned I worked 80-100 hour weeks.
My wife owned an antique mall for
15 years and she was there 12 hours
a day 7 days a week. You just do it,
it's a way of life.
Sure. Where the wheels come off is when you start talking about other things you do (gambling, driving for hours to see family for days) while still claiming to be in town doing that work. Once you start saying both things to the same group of people, it's only a matter of time until someone points out that time per day/week/month/year is finite and math exists.
Quote: 1BBAgain, no opinion on the baccarat stories. No one should be cross examined or called on every word. I don't think that has happened but work with us a little. Jeez.
Yet some are unwilling to concede that an exact number of hours may be incorrect BUT the person works a whole lot of hours.
If you can't leave work because your duties could call, you are working...would anyone here accept being unpaid by an employer for 16 hours if they were forced to be at the office for 16 hours but only actually had to do "work" for 12 or 14? Of course not.
do a TV series. Then when they get home
they have to learn the lines for tomorrow,
so they're still working. They don't spend
15 hours in front of the camera, but just
being there is working because it's all related
to work.
Frank Sinatra hated acting, he thought it was
silly work. He would show up when it was
time to do his scene, no rehearsal, do one
take, and leave. Drove directors nuts.
Quote: dummyWhat if Ace says Baccaratfrom79's lost 30 hands in a row ?? Just asking. Consider this the Buzzard's last post. It's been FUN !
Miss you already (again) Buzz
Quote: aceofspadesMiss you already (again) Buzz
If that is Buzzard, he got away with it for a couple of weeks...
Quote: RonCYet some are unwilling to concede that an exact number of hours may be incorrect BUT the person works a whole lot of hours.
If you can't leave work because your duties could call, you are working...would anyone here accept being unpaid by an employer for 16 hours if they were forced to be at the office for 16 hours but only actually had to do "work" for 12 or 14? Of course not.
Who isn't willing to make that concession? The point would have gone by without comment if that was all that was said. Instead, a ridiculous and impossible "exact" number was unnecessarily given. And then the poster's own "support" of that "exact" number disproved its validity. Any broad generalization would have worked, any smaller number would have worked. Anything that was actually even marginally realistic would have worked. Maybe taking 2 minutes to sanity check the original claim before posting it would have been a good idea.
I think it's a fine line about what is working and what isn't. I think you're probably right that time that MUST be spent in the office is work time no matter what activity is being done. But what if time is spent in the office because the wifi there is better for facetime with the kids, or because the office is an easy place to access the internet. Or, in an environment separated from family, maybe the office is just a less depressing place to be than home alone. Is time in the office "work" time then? What about people who can leave the office but are on call 24/7? I've "worked" about 70,000 hours since 2005 if that counts as work...
Quote: rdw4potusInstead, a ridiculous and impossible "exact" number was unnecessarily given. .
I bet you count the sheets on a toilet
paper roll just to make sure the company
has 1000 sheets there. I don't think
B79 was trying to be exact, he was making
a point that he works a lot. He's still pretty
new and is learning you have to watch
every word you say here or the nitpickers
will descend on you.
Quote: EvenBobI bet you count the sheets on a toilet
paper roll just to make sure the company
has 1000 sheets there. I don't think
B79 was trying to be exact, he was making
a point that he works a lot. He's still pretty
new and is learning you have to watch
every word you say here or the nitpickers
will descend on you.
lol. Nah. But if they advertised that there were 1,000,000 sheets on the roll and there were really 1,000 we'd have an issue.
Also, hello Mr. Pot. I'm Kettle. Nice to meet you:-)
That's just how things work.
Quote: aceofspadesMiss you already (again) Buzz
wow I'm so glad I didn't book that bet. I thought it wasn't buzz.
Quote: Baccaratfrom79I have to admit. I am extremely envious of not grinding it out like you guys. Write me a trip report about grinding it out and what the life of a grinder is besides having 40 bags of garbage in your kitchen with all kinds of mold and smells like what was written, etc. Give us some good points as to what to do and where to go in Vegas. Any tips on good restaurants in Chinatown??
I like ping pang pong.
Quote: aceofspadesI'm team Bacc79
When I pull that little monkey out you will get 3 of his brothers and sisters on top of those aces!!! I will slap the table hard as hell. When the dealer points to your 8's, I will pull another little guy out of my pocket and bless the proverbial winning hands forthcoming for you. You will probably get a 3 and then double down pulling monkey on top. For the remaining 8 maybe a 5 and hell, we will just do a double down on a hard 13, WTF! That's the way I roll. Bring on the 8 baby, smack it down on top of that hard 13!!!
Quote: Baccaratfrom79I have to admit. I am extremely envious of not grinding it out like you guys. Write me a trip report about grinding it out and what the life of a grinder is besides having 40 bags of garbage in your kitchen with all kinds of mold and smells like what was written, etc. Give us some good points as to what to do and where to go in Vegas. Any tips on good restaurants in Chinatown??
Get the story straight. There was no garbage in the kitchen. Garbage went in the garbage room.
Quote: dummyWhat if Ace says Baccaratfrom79's lost 30 hands in a row ?? Just asking. Consider this the Buzzard's last post. It's been FUN !
Well played! You fooled a lot of people, darling. :-)
Quote: rudeboyoiGet the story straight. There was no garbage in the kitchen. Garbage went in the garbage room.
Oh!!! Is that what you said or meant???? See, same shoe---different foot. Okay it was the garbage room.
Myself, I would have put it out fore the garbage people so there would be no mistake and its gone, but that me.
Quote: Baccaratfrom79When I pull that little monkey out you will get 3 of his brothers and sisters on top of those aces!!! I will slap the table hard as hell. When the dealer points to your 8's, I will pull another little guy out of my pocket and bless the proverbial winning hands forthcoming for you. You will probably get a 3 and then double down pulling monkey on top. For the remaining 8 maybe a 5 and hell, we will just do a double down on a hard 13, WTF! That's the way I roll. Bring on the 8 baby, smack it down on top of that hard 13!!!
Is it April yet?!?!?!?
Quote: Baccaratfrom79I have to admit. I am extremely envious of not grinding it out like you guys. Write me a trip report about grinding it out and what the life of a grinder is besides having 40 bags of garbage in your kitchen with all kinds of mold and smells like what was written, etc. Give us some good points as to what to do and where to go in Vegas. Any tips on good restaurants in Chinatown??
Quote: djatcI like ping pang pong.
Lotus of Siam: http://www.saipinchutima.com/Quote: beachbumbabsMakino's on Decatur just north of W. Flamingo. Ridiculously good - all the locals eat there. Arrive before 6pm or wait a long time for a table.
It is the opposite direction, though not far, located in the world's crappiest seedy decrepit old 'shopping center' with pool halls & a swinger's "club" & a supposed "barbershop" that's only open with the lights on in the middle of the night in which nobody has been seen in the front chairs to actually get a haircut ever & a joint that sells prosthetic limbs... But there is no need for any other restaurants, at all, anywhere, ever, if you go to them to eat the food. My foremost goal in life is to make it all the way through their menu, then I can die. You don't need to bother bringing all that much money for much of it, but you WILL need to book a reservation if it is for the middle of dinner time on a weekend.
MENU (For Lotus, not the midnight "barbershop" across the parking lot.)
Quote: Baccaratfrom79AceofSpades.....you ready???? You game to double down on a hard 14 or 15?????
I might not be an AP but I do not think I would be game to double a hard 14 or 15
I know a guy who always doubles 12 - he says all he is going to take is one card no matter what so he might as well get more action on the table - I have not seen him win many of these doubles
Quote: Baccaratfrom79Oh!!! Is that what you said or meant???? See, same shoe---different foot. Okay it was the garbage room.
Myself, I would have put it out fore the garbage people so there would be no mistake and its gone, but that me.
We tried that. They just left the garbage bags there. One of those trucks with those arms that pick up the bin and dump it in the top.
I think poker people (I should probably say 'poker guys' because they are always all guys) are especially notorious for this. One fellow I knew of lived in a shared rental near-Strip Las Vegas "poker house" that functioned essentially like a dorm, and the living & dining room areas were never furnished with anything but a floor to ceiling accumulation of empty pizza delivery boxes. Or maybe there was also a Chinese take-out carton under there somewhere. The yard? Fuggedaboudit.Quote: rudeboyoiWe tried that. They just left the garbage bags there. One of those trucks with those arms that pick up the bin and dump it in the top.
Quote: Baccaratfrom79And your second to last paragraph-and is exactly what I have wrote about and serve me well in the gambling gauge as a loss stop factor!!!!
I previously said if I win I win from the beginning and a great sign as to the way the shoes will turn out. If I lose from the beginning, not good. If I am up and down like a roller coaster it may good and might not be good. Everything combined is my 'system'. The way I am winning or losing, the trends/patterns I see if any, the aura of the players at the table(s), the way the cards are falling, and on and on and on. It is a random game, but all factors play into it as to what my outcome will be (I said mine---not yours). There is no math to calculate or search for, 95 shoes out of 100 can end in a dead heat of players and bankers and yet the next 100 shoes will produce very lopsided counts of players and bankers for each shoe total. An experienced player will use his experience to wager and capitalize on an easy winning decision. But then again, that will only be for a VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME within a shoe, and might not come forward in any given shoe as well. A player that refuses to get on a 15 Banker streak with a flat wager of $5,000.00 and keeps wagering for the cut to Player for the 14 or so times and goes bust, is not following anything except what he believes is an AP calculation that the shoe will cut to the other side. Call it Voo-Doo or Hocus Pocus, its the way the game is.
My Goodness!............................. I am speechless after reading this posting on Baccarat. I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
Baccarat is a side game in the US and not many people play it. In Asia it is the main game and millions play it and bet Billions every day.
I think you would be better off to get Ace to double with you on hard 14 and 15.
Quote: Baccaratfrom79I have a lady that comes in once a week to clean my office. Three rooms and a bathroom. 2 hours max?? $60.00 plus cleaning supplies. She also does an office trailer we have set up for the night crew and our adjacent business, their offices and bathrooms, etc. She makes about $150 for the morning.
Office cleaners do seem to bill quite differently from house cleaners.
The spaces also seem to get dirty in different ways.
sometimes there is depending on procedure but only for one hand per shoe and you need two players.Quote: Dalex64There is no practical ap calculation in baccarat that tells you that the shoe is due to switch to the other side.
Quote: mcallister3200sometimes there is depending on procedure but only for one hand per shoe and you need two players.
Yeah, that play takes a LOT of patience.
On the plus side the table maximums are high at baccarat and if you got a few people in your crew you can get 100K+ in action down on that 1 hand with a double digit advantage at times.
Quote: DrawingDeadLotus of Siam: http://www.saipinchutima.com/
It is the opposite direction, though not far, located in the world's crappiest seedy decrepit old 'shopping center' with pool halls & a swinger's "club" & a supposed "barbershop" that's only open with the lights on in the middle of the night in which nobody has been seen in the front chairs to actually get a haircut ever & a joint that sells prosthetic limbs... But there is no need for any other restaurants, at all, anywhere, ever, if you go to them to eat the food. My foremost goal in life is to make it all the way through their menu, then I can die. You don't need to bother bringing all that much money for much of it, but you WILL need to book a reservation if it is for the middle of dinner time on a weekend.
MENU (For Lotus, not the midnight "barbershop" across the parking lot.)
We will definitely go to that Lotus, thanks!
Here we go again. Experience has nothing to do with baccarat. No one has any more or less knowledge, no one knows when or how much to bet over anyone else. You could give a 5 year old a stack of chips and he has the same chance of winning or losing as you do.Quote: Baccaratfrom79An experienced player will use his experience to wager and capitalize on an easy winning decision. But then again, that will only be for a VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME within a shoe, and might not come forward in any given shoe as well. A player that refuses to get on a 15 Banker streak with a flat wager of $5,000.00 and keeps wagering for the cut to Player for the 14 or so times and goes bust, is not following anything except what he believes is an AP calculation that the shoe will cut to the other side. Call it Voo-Doo or Hocus Pocus, its the way the game is.
Trends are meaningless and you can't capitalize on them unless you are a psychic. You don't know if if the trend will continue or stop. Baccarat is -EV even in a "VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME".
Since I may have a biased opinion of what sounds like a betting system I had my GF read that post(she doesn't know any history,nor does she care about betting systems)
I asked her what she though you were trying to convey. She didn't say betting system she said, it sounds like someone who thinks they can beat the casino, then she asked if it was possible to count that game like you can in BJ.
Quote: AxelWolfHere we go again. Experience has nothing to do with baccarat. No one has any more or less knowledge, no one knows when or how much to bet over anyone else. You could give a 5 year old a stack of chips and he has the same chance of winning or losing as you do.
Trends are meaningless and you can't capitalize on them unless you are a psychic. You don't know if if the trend will continue or stop. Baccarat is -EV even in a "VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME".
Since I may have a biased opinion of what sounds like a betting system I had my GF read that post(she doesn't know any history,nor does she care about betting systems)
I asked her what she though you were trying to convey. She didn't say betting system she said, it sounds like someone who thinks they can beat the casino, then she asked if it was possible to count that game like you can in BJ.
Has nothing to do with a count, nothing, zero, sip, natta, nothing. When the shoe is strong it is strong, when the shoe is weak it is weak. ALL you need to do is catch either side and you lose the last wager. NO rocket science. THE largest losers are the math guys, the AP'ers and the rocket science guys playing baccarat, there is no count, you follow the shoe you win. The largest majority will give it back and then some, the experience comes in after doing all that, and yet---so many still can't but that's another story.
Quote: AxelWolfHere we go again. Experience has nothing to do with baccarat.
How would you know. You heard this somewhere
and are repeating it because you think it sounds
good. Have you ever played bac long enough that
you can verify what you're saying? That would be
years, BTW, not a couple weekends 10 years ago.
How much/often do people typically bet on the tie bet and/or side bets? (As a % of their typical main bet wager)
Someone please ask me following a streak of 15 repeating hands or a series of 17 to 20 alternating hands and we had $1k to $5k out there and only lost the last one. Best to ask me right at the cashiers window, my mind will be clearer and more informed at that time.
Quote: sc15Just wondering, do you play regular baccarat, or ez baccarat or some version that has side bets?
How much/often do people typically bet on the tie bet and/or side bets? (As a % of their typical main bet wager)
Got news for you, for years--all the 80's and all the 90's there was basically only big table baccarat in the high limits and Mini on the main floor. Then Midi/Macau style came along and then EZ and of course the Panda and Pair crap carnival game stuff/side bets.
I mostly play in the high limit on Midi which some have a few side bets but always the 5% on the winning bank. A few of the big tables do have the pair wagers but still not EZ bac style.
Players wager very differently on the tie and side bets. I usually wager on the tie for a few hands especially in groups or sections. The places I play they usually wager about one black to maybe $1k on the side wagers or ties. A mean average, maybe 5 or 10/15% percent of their banker or player wager.
If you guess enough times eventually you will run into a trend. This can be applied to just about every even money table game bet, Baccarat isn't that special it's just a better percentage for players than something like roulette.Quote: Baccaratfrom79I will admit it one time and one time only, I will deny I ever said it. All the Voo-Doo and all the Hocus Pocus has nothing to do with the way the cards come out, but it sure lends itself to camaraderie and what the old timers call 'over powering the shoe', when you pump it up and everyone is high on winning and you catch the shoe's current trend, it is not Voo-Doo, but hey, actually maybe it is?????
I have no doubt your method is fun and exciting, I don't think there's anything wrong with your method/system( whatever you call it) I don't think there's anything wrong with playing baccarat. Given the right circumstances I would play with a disadvantage for entertainment and social purposes . If someone understands it's -EV and they cannot gain an advantage though a betting system If you enjoy it and have fun playing it, I'm all for it. I sincerely mean it when I say Go get'em. I hope you spank the casinos I'm rooting for you.
I just don't believe you can guess better than anyone else. At this moment you may be getting lucky and guessing better than others, but not even you know that. You said you don't keep track of how much you have won or lost.
PS. I totally get that you're not counting.
Quote: AxelWolf
PS. I totally get that you're not counting.
There is no way to count, can't be done. Even if say 10 or so hands are left and you know every card left in the shoe (You can write every single hand down with every single card that came out-except the first 1 to 10 burn cards) and not one single person would will say anything. You still wont know which side might prevail, bankers or players. What the value of what is left, does not matter.
Only a fool plays every hand of approximately 80 hands in a bac shoe.
Quote: Baccaratfrom79There is no way to count, can't be done. Even if say 10 or so hands are left and you know every card left in the shoe (You can write every single hand down with every single card that came out-except the first 1 to 10 burn cards) and not one single person would will say anything. You still wont know which side might prevail, bankers or players. What the value of what is left, does not matter.
Only a fool plays every hand of approximately 80 hands in a bac shoe.
Aren't the burn cards face up? so you can write those down too.
The issue is, even if a place is cutting only 14 cards from the end of the shoe, the odds that a +EV situation arises on player/banker is almost nil. There ARE opportunities for a tie bet (like if all the final cards are face cards, there's a guaranteed tie), but those situations are still extremely rare and you'll be doing a whole lot of waiting to be able to place a bet.
You are preaching to the choir. it's not realistic but possible.Quote: Baccaratfrom79There is no way to count, can't be done. Even if say 10 or so hands are left and you know every card left in the shoe (You can write every single hand down with every single card that came out-except the first 1 to 10 burn cards) and not one single person would will say anything. You still wont know which side might prevail, bankers or players. What the value of what is left, does not matter.
Only a fool plays every hand of approximately 80 hands in a bac shoe.
Even if it was more plausible you don't seem like someone who cares about AP anyone suggesting such silly BJ plays like you did with AOS is a hunch player to their core.
You would probably be willing to give up hundreds in EV playing wrong if you had a feeling. Rob Singer type shenanigans.
"Only a fool plays every hand of approximately 80 hands in a bac shoe" Again that smells like system play talk. The only foolishness about betting more hands is the fact that you're exposing more money to the house edge. You will have to explain the difference between someone betting 100k on a few hands or someone betting the same total action betting less on many hands. There's a possibility someone betting 4 hrs at a smaller amount might generate more comps compared to 1 hand win or lose. Unless you have a special deal or that particular house has a soft spot for single large bets.
I can buy multiple large bets helping, if they rate you while you're sitting out hands as if you were actually betting every hand. That might even be +EV if they give you free play/free bets/ promotion chips, based on that slow play scenario.
