Baccaratfrom79's Response to the Board

ORIGINAL POST:
Well, I wasn't going to respond or come back on the board, however I received several PM's and a Mod/Admin asked me to reconsider. You know, the way it went, I just rather not be where I am not desired--don't get that wrong, not seeking to be praised or thanked or idolized or cherished in any way, shape or form! But with the chastising, attempts to turn others against me and as well, 'hounding challenges'---why should I be part of the community?? With that said, I will now offer some insight to me as well as a few retaliations' for whatever they are worth, might explain and if nothing else, for the record.

First of all, I never claimed to be an AP'er, advantaged anything, a mathematical statistician or anything of the likes. I never preached my outcomes in gaming could be yours, never once. I do not sell any systems, I do not endorse any systems or methods of play, I have no mentors or endorse any, and I never harped on playing methods that I might or might not believe in. I have talked about some because I was either asked or simply, I have employed them for whatever reason. Methods of play as well as systems, are as plentiful as their are colors in a huge box of crayons. I also don't think I chastised or humiliated anyone on this board and if I disagreed or was challenged, I probably said something along the lines of, Okay sure thing, you're right or that's not true. Argue or attempt to 'gang up', 'call out' or 'humiliate'---for what, what's it prove?? Being condescending? If you guys think I was, sorry--but hey, I am used to the NY/NJ/Phila area so take that with a grain of salt. In all essence, if you don't like what I have to say, how about just moving on or not reading it or ignoring it. I would do the same to you or your threads. Enough of that, I said my point there.

AceofSpades and Beachbumbabs and Face and (OMG-I shouldn't say it but hey I will), EvenBob and a few others that PM'd me is the reason I am posting this. As far as the members current or banned or past that, I have been accused of being--hogwash, 1,000% bull crap, asked Beachbumbabs which I think already verified and stated that but I still read those snide comments of the possibilities.

I have lost and I have won. Lost a lot and won lots. I don't keep records, never did and never will. I have never gambled as a professional nor do I gamble to make money to live on. Have I ever gambled and lost money I could not afford. Sure, in my younger days, live and learn. Do I depend on gambling for a living, no. Have I ever, no. Would I ever, no. My employment and professional interests are elsewhere. Gambling and casinos are the fifth love of my life. #1) My family; #2) Whatever profession I am in--currently the hazardous materials spill clean up and emergency response business; #3) Heavy Equipment; #4) Sex; #5) Casinos-gambling-baccarat.

As far as what I portrayed with my threads, stories and Asian New Years trip to Vegas, it is what it is/was. I did not start gambling with that trip or one or 2 before. I have been playing steadily since I was 21, I am in my mid 50's. Been there and done that guys. Period. Concerning the 1, read>>>> One (1) trip I made while being a member of this board, I won and won about $25k give or take a thousand or two. Anyway, that and the bankroll is gone as the wife snatched it to buy a new SUV. If the trip went bust, I guess some of you would have given me more credence??? I don't really know, but I was positive about $25k which was approx. 1/2 my bankroll. It wasn't a great trip in winning's. I almost lost it all before making it up. Got frustrated and if I wasn't, I know I could have smacked the casino for a couple hundred grand on 1, maybe 2 shoes. But hey, such is life.

"RS" mentioned, something along the lines that I would be influencing some members, maybe not so experienced into believing what I had was a system or stating I was an AP'er, etc. As I already said above, I am not. I am experienced, very experienced and very conscious as to the pitfalls and the trappings of gaming and winning. Again, I never said "Advantaged" nor I never preached and stated I had a system or any other method of play that was secret or proprietary to anyone or anything similar. I merely said, and if I did not, here it is>>> I have many years of experience, I know the pitfalls and the downsides to high limit gaming and what can and cannot happen. I am knoweldabgle and very aware as to what the game of chance can dish out. I play according to how I feel, my bankroll, my experience, and always, always, always being conscious of the fact that baccarat is a random game, one that changes and fluctuates without regards to any play, method, race, creed, nationality or believes.

The thrill is only 2 things to me in a casino---1) The socialization with a bunch of rambunctious players that are wild, fun and lending credence to having a great time at the table; and 2) Winning lots of money. I don't play to lose, I don't play to push. I don't play for comps, I don't play to be part of a night out. I don't play for something to do on a night off. I am in the Midwest, I have to travel to Vegas or AC or CT to get a real game I enjoy. I am not saying anyone (I said ANYONE is doing anything sub-par or lesser) if you don't play the same way I do in the high limit. I learned in the high limits rooms and always played in them. At least 98% of the times anyways. It is what I am comfortable doing and the experience I go for. Doesn't mean anything condescending on you or anyone else.

As far as education and coming here to learn or whatever. Several comments were posted. Here is my side. I got the people figured out, I have the casinos figured out and I know the game. I know the positives and the negatives. I know what can happen. The game is going to do known things---yet, those things will remain unknown as to what time they will happen. My method or anyone else's--will not instantly give you or I an advantage. The game is random, however (and a big however), it is best played like a speeding car down the Garden State Parkway in New Jersey. If the whole freeway is traveling 85mph, it is fine go with the flow you probably won't get a ticket. If the whole freeway is going 55mph and you are the only motorist doing 85mph, then you stand a great chance to wreck your vehicle or get a ticket in a much faster manner than anyone else around you. My translation. What makes one ignorant is trying to do something that should not be done and get away with it. The same in baccarat. Trying to change the results that will happen no matter what you do. Hence, that is why I say, with the trend or with the chop/cut.

What Beachbumbabs said is correct. 1) Discipline to get up when winning (at times, most times, depends on how easy the win came and the current flow of cards and players at the table); 2) Not overspend his bankroll (my bankroll is my dedicated gambling money, win-lose or draw, doesn't matter what I make in my business or how much I have put away). 3) Enjoys his game win or lose (I enjoy a lot more winning but losing is part of gambling).

Seriously, unless it's the 'holy grail' you can't teach me anything that would allow me to win anything more frequently that I already do. I stated on the board before that, I have the greates money management method that allows me to play better, (all IMO) when I win and it controls losing win money and allows me to have an edge. It is nobodies system or am I selling it or trying to get anyone to use it. It is not a predictor of future hands, as I said it manages the money I win, if I win. It does not allow me to predict or choice Banker or Player because it is voo-doo. It is simply a management method that lets me have clear mind and play better when I win. Okay think we are clear on that?

A few posts harped on the fact that I just started playing ad I am caught up in all the trapping of the casino, etc. In fact someone said, go ahead and lose your shirt. My answer, I been doing this a long time. If I lose $25k or $50k or $75k, I still have my shirt. Once again, my bankroll is earmarked and just that. Win, lose or draw. I don't make $1,000.00 and go to the casino with $850.00 to risk playing keeping $150.00 for the week's food money. Enough said.

I have nothing to sell, endorse or advertise. I advocate for no one. Enough said.

Someone said, bothers me that he gives off the impression he's beating the game by skill/knowledge. If (I said if I beat the game) I beat it with my experience, foresight, voo-doo hunches- guts-luck getting on the trend or riding the chop or maybe something else. Plain and simple. Enough said.

Someone said, seems to me he was secure in his beliefs and came to discuss them, not to study new methods. My answer. There are no new methods I don't know about and if there are, I will discover them someday and use them. But I seriously don't think there are any, I played the game for many years. BTW, I guess many of you didn't read the post I had (maybe you did??) about my sprinkling of 'magical dust' on the cards?? I also have that little solid gold monkey that makes an occasional appearance on top of the table when he is really needed. But those two are an entirely different story.

Baccarat is a random game---what works for me or for you, might not work for each other. I realize that, do you?

If I won money and I detail the reason why---what the heck does it matter if it was mathematically correct-advantaged or the proper play? I won money, likewise if I lost but we tend not to detail those too much or there is really nothing to talk about. Not talking about blackjack but talking about baccarat, it is random and there is no counting so if I won by trending or merely following a pattern of chop--shouldn't it be detailed because in true reality that would be the reason why I won.

Another person says, I should be admitting I was wrong and seeking education. I was not wrong, I did not advocate or instruct people how to play or to change their play. I merely told them how I play or what I did. There are lots of flavors in the frozen section of the supermarket if you like ice cream. We are all different.

So what if I go to the pool--get a private $300.00 cabana, a bottle of XO cognac and a couple of other bottles, a bunch of fruit and some other snacks. A massage therapist @ the cabana, etc., etc. It's what we do--what we enjoy and I would do it comp'd or not. And I'm not the only one--might be 10 or 20 or 30 other people doing the same thing. Doesn't make me a better or a worse player than anyone in the world in any casino. But those 300 or 500 other people that come to the pool and throw their towel down on a chair and go for a swim are the exact same people as I am or those in my party. We just do things different in different ways. Not because we are high rollers or playing with larger wagers than others, we just enjoy doing the things we do at a property or in Vegas the way we do them. And why do we do them a little more extravagant or expensive then others, maybe because I own a business back home and I am running that 6 and 7 days a week working no less than 110 hours a week for a couple months at a time if not longer. I have paid those classical and proverbial dues and I am what I am. At this point in my life I am happy. If you want me on the board, it is fine, if you don't that is fine too. I rather not stick around where I bring conflict and confusion and upset people. Just doesn't make sense, there is enough confusion, stress and problems in the everyday world of family and business without having to defend oneself on a message board.

I spent over $650,000.00 the other day on a piece of equipment and a truck to haul it around. That excites me! I looked at it this morning, I almost got an erection. It's my new toy. So when I gamble, it has to push my buttons, if it didn't---I wouldn't do it. When I have say $5,000.00 up on the Bankers and the guy next to me has $20,000.00 up and the Players returned a natural 8 and he has 2-four lined cards, then flips over a 9, I pull my monkey out of my pocket and place him up on the table and the whole table is screaming monkey and pointing to my monkey, that is what it is all about, voo-doo or not, call it what you want, that's why I play the game.
Done.



^^^^DONE

Quote: Baccaratfrom79

Heavy Equipment; #4) Sex; #5) Casinos-gambling-baccarat.

You were in the sex business? Wait, I think
I read that wrong.

Never mind.

The reason why you get challenged is because you act like some voodoo system actually works. Or that you tell people that they should play baccarat because "you lose less" or that it's "less stressful" or what have you.

I find your posts both valuable and insightful. Personally I have never seen the lure of playing baccarat, but to each his own. I personally would prefer it if you stayed on board.

Geez I always leave right when the drama hits.

It's all good man. A lot of posters on this board are not AP. I'm not AP and I never have been. But I enjoy Las Vegas. I like reading the trip reports and getting opinions on the nicest rooms, the best buffets, or the best shows. I'm a smart person. I know there is no winning system out there that can give me an edge over the casino, but at the same time I'm as superstitious as the next guy. I take my odds bets off when the dice fly off the table, I don't put money into a slot when a see someone just cashed out a big winner and other examples. Do I know that these events have nothing to do with the next roll or spin of the wheels? Of course.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Geez I always leave right when the drama hits.

Meh, all played out before on at least one other message board.

Quote: Baccaratfrom79

If you want me on the board, it is fine, if you don't that is fine too. I rather not stick around where I bring conflict and confusion and upset people. Just doesn't make sense, there is enough confusion, stress and problems in the everyday world of family and business without having to defend oneself on a message board.

Mr V's better at naming the chapters. Chapter two was, "The honeymoon's over."


Add on: Guess what chapter four is about.

My advice if you want less "combative" responses is:

Keep your discussion to what a good time you had, what you saw, what you got comped, anything interesting that might've happened at the table, and the results of your trip.

DON'T discuss:
- How you should've seen a pattern coming or whatever, since this will just get you called out for that being BS. (Discussing how 13 bankers came out in a row and how crazy that is will generally be fine, saying in hindsight that you should've bet more because there was a "clear pattern" emerging gets you responses like "you know that's BS right?")
- The benefits of playing baccarat over other games. Maybe you like baccarat, but not everyone does
- Try to act knowledgeable about the game. I know some ploppies will act like they know it all and actually enjoy arguing why their flawed knowledge is correct, but apparently you don't like arguing about it, so it's better if you just avoid that topic.

Bacc, I hope you stay. You have done nothing wrong. You were asked how you play, and you responded. your posts have been entertaining, and I am sure they will continue to be that way. I can't wait for you and AoS to get together on a single trip report. I am sure it will be an exciting read.

I genuinely appreciate every mathematician that is on this board, but most of them demonstrate a common trait. When it comes to casino games, and people talking about how they play, the mathematicians will jump all over your posts showing you the exact math of the game, and how you are fighting a losing battle. I am fine with that. It is needed. But they do not stop there. they will continue to beat on the poster trying to get them to admit they were wrong, and that their play is wrong. For some reason, they seem to require this validation. I believe I have read this is a trait that is shared among many scientists and mathematicians. They know the math, the math is right, therefore they have to be right, and by extension, you must be wrong.

Again, this is not a knock against the other fine members of this board. It is my opinion of the behavior I have seen for 5 years now. Without the math guys/gals, this board would not have nearly as much value as it does now. If they were not here, I would not be here. I am not looking for any changes from the math folks either. It is what it is, and it makes this board.

What I have learned is you cannot get into a discussion where you are trying to defend how you play, because that is viewed as a challenge that must be won. With a little patience, and some practice, you will discover how to avoid getting engaged in these wars. I get a lot from this board, and am happy to be here. Hopefully you decide to stick around.

Quote: sc15

My advice if you want less "combative" responses is:

Keep your discussion to what a good time you had, what you saw, what you got comped, anything interesting that might've happened at the table, and the results of your trip.

DON'T discuss:
- How you should've seen a pattern coming or whatever, since this will just get you called out for that being BS. (Discussing how 13 bankers came out in a row and how crazy that is will generally be fine, saying in hindsight that you should've bet more because there was a "clear pattern" emerging gets you responses like "you know that's BS right?")
- The benefits of playing baccarat over other games. Maybe you like baccarat, but not everyone does
- Try to act knowledgeable about the game. I know some ploppies will act like they know it all and actually enjoy arguing why their flawed knowledge is correct, but apparently you don't like arguing about it, so it's better if you just avoid that topic.

I disagree with your don'ts.
Why should he have to change the way he posts? Why can't the math guys post the math, and debunk his 'strategy' without turning it into a battle that must be won by making the poster say he is/was wrong?

The problem starts because one party decides they must enforce their will or belief on the other party. I am not placing blame for this on one party. It goes both ways.

Quote: RaleighCraps

Why should he have to change the way he posts?

He doesn't have to. As his post above shows, he hasn't.

Quote:

Why can't the math guys post the math, and debunk his 'strategy' without turning it into a battle that must be won by making the poster say he is/was wrong?

Here is the math: expected loss = (total wagers) x (house edge). Done. Now that you fully understand the math, do you not also see why people are going to remind him of it if he says things that contradict it?

Quote:

The problem starts because one party decides they must enforce their will or belief on the other party.

Casino math is not a question of "belief" any more than gravity is. Either you "believe" you live in a universe with physical laws or you don't. Regardless, it is the same universe. If you walk into a wall, you will get reminded of that reality, I hope. It's like joining a physics forum and talking about how the earth is the center of the universe.

If B79 wants to make claims and have conversations about his mythical universe, there is a forum on this board for just that sort of thing. The rest is all good.

Quote: Baccaratfrom79

I don't keep records, never did and never will.

With all due respect, if you keep no records you are acting very, very foolishly.

What about writing off wins against losses come tax time?

What do you do,not report income as reflected in your W-2G's and hope the IRS doesn't notice?

You make a lot of money in your business; I'm sure your CPA has taught you better than that.

Quote: sc15

My advice if you want less "combative" responses is:

Keep your discussion to what a good time you had, what you saw, what you got comped, anything interesting that might've happened at the table, and the results of your trip.

DON'T discuss:
- How you should've seen a pattern coming or whatever, since this will just get you called out for that being BS. (Discussing how 13 bankers came out in a row and how crazy that is will generally be fine, saying in hindsight that you should've bet more because there was a "clear pattern" emerging gets you responses like "you know that's BS right?")
- The benefits of playing baccarat over other games. Maybe you like baccarat, but not everyone does
- Try to act knowledgeable about the game. I know some ploppies will act like they know it all and actually enjoy arguing why their flawed knowledge is correct, but apparently you don't like arguing about it, so it's better if you just avoid that topic.

I think Bacc79 should tell the boards as much as he wants about patterns he sees and what not - it is not hurting anyone and those who do not want to read it do not have to - Bacc79 should not have to censor himself to appease the intelligentsia of the board…I think that Bacc79's excitement for baccarat, including the patterns he spots and how he plays, all add to his trip reports and give us a true inside look into a player's mind…

I include all sorts of nonsense and superstition in my trip reports and yes, certain members here love to tear them up, but, I have become used to it and realize they will do it and I accept it as someone's opinion

Bacc79 - don't censor yourself - let it all hang out as it gives us a more complete look into your trip :)

Quote: RaleighCraps

Bacc, I hope you stay. You have done nothing wrong. You were asked how you play, and you responded. your posts have been entertaining, and I am sure they will continue to be that way. I can't wait for you and AoS to get together on a single trip report. I am sure it will be an exciting read.

End of April baby!!!

Quote: sc15

My advice if you want less "combative" responses is:

Keep your discussion to what a good time you had, what you saw, what you got comped, anything interesting that might've happened at the table, and the results of your trip.

DON'T discuss:
- How you should've seen a pattern coming or whatever, since this will just get you called out for that being BS. (Discussing how 13 bankers came out in a row and how crazy that is will generally be fine, saying in hindsight that you should've bet more because there was a "clear pattern" emerging gets you responses like "you know that's BS right?")
- The benefits of playing baccarat over other games. Maybe you like baccarat, but not everyone does
- Try to act knowledgeable about the game. I know some ploppies will act like they know it all and actually enjoy arguing why their flawed knowledge is correct, but apparently you don't like arguing about it, so it's better if you just avoid that topic.

Quote: RaleighCraps

Bacc, I hope you stay. You have done nothing wrong. You were asked how you play, and you responded. your posts have been entertaining, and I am sure they will continue to be that way. I can't wait for you and AoS to get together on a single trip report. I am sure it will be an exciting read.

I genuinely appreciate every mathematician that is on this board, but most of them demonstrate a common trait. When it comes to casino games, and people talking about how they play, the mathematicians will jump all over your posts showing you the exact math of the game, and how you are fighting a losing battle. I am fine with that. It is needed. But they do not stop there. they will continue to beat on the poster trying to get them to admit they were wrong, and that their play is wrong. For some reason, they seem to require this validation. I believe I have read this is a trait that is shared among many scientists and mathematicians. They know the math, the math is right, therefore they have to be right, and by extension, you must be wrong.

Again, this is not a knock against the other fine members of this board. It is my opinion of the behavior I have seen for 5 years now. Without the math guys/gals, this board would not have nearly as much value as it does now. If they were not here, I would not be here. I am not looking for any changes from the math folks either. It is what it is, and it makes this board.

What I have learned is you cannot get into a discussion where you are trying to defend how you play, because that is viewed as a challenge that must be won. With a little patience, and some practice, you will discover how to avoid getting engaged in these wars. I get a lot from this board, and am happy to be here. Hopefully you decide to stick around.

I almost agree with these guys...I would say stick around, and realize that in the "long run" no one can win at Baccarat. This is a mathematical fact that lots of folks will insist on repeating over and over.

But part of me wants to say it would be better for you to just not post here, and that is because you really, really like talking about patterns (chop chop!). This will be a constant source of friction on such a math-heavy forum as this. Absolutely you are entitled to play however you want and describing your method of play isn't against the rules or anything. But you will be constantly called out that the patterns mean nothing.

You are among the highest rollers to post here (not everyone talks about the bet sizes or bankrolls, but yours are the highest of anyone I remember calling them out), so really your stories about huge wins and huge losses and crazy comps etc. etc. should be, and are, welcomed by most. However, this is a math-heavy forum, as you have discovered. That's not going to change...

I find it both impressive and foolhardy that you don't keep records of your past trips; one thing to your credit is that you never claim to be a winner.

Quote: aceofspades

I think Bacc79 should tell the boards as much as he wants about patterns he sees and what not - it is not hurting anyone and those who do not want to read it do not have to - Bacc79 should not have to censor himself to appease the intelligentsia of the board…I think that Bacc79's excitement for baccarat, including the patterns he spots and how he plays, all add to his trip reports and give us a true inside look into a player's mind…

I include all sorts of nonsense and superstition in my trip reports and yes, certain members here love to tear them up, but, I have become used to it and realize they will do it and I accept it as someone's opinion

Bacc79 - don't censor yourself - let it all hang out as it gives us a more complete look into your trip :)

This is a counterpoint to my previous post. Bacc79 - my last piece of advice is if you choose to keep posting here, just grow a thick skin and don't respond to the mathematical posts.

Quote: RaleighCraps

I genuinely appreciate every mathematician that is on this board, but most of them demonstrate a common trait. When it comes to casino games, and people talking about how they play, the mathematicians will jump all over your posts showing you the exact math of the game, and how you are fighting a losing battle. I am fine with that. It is needed. But they do not stop there. they will continue to beat on the poster trying to get them to admit they were wrong, and that their play is wrong. For some reason, they seem to require this validation. I believe I have read this is a trait that is shared among many scientists and mathematicians. They know the math, the math is right, therefore they have to be right, and by extension, you must be wrong.

hahah we all remember this Trip Report

Quote: sc15

DON'T discuss:
- How you should've seen a pattern coming or whatever, since this will just get you called out for that being BS. (Discussing how 13 bankers came out in a row and how crazy that is will generally be fine, saying in hindsight that you should've bet more because there was a "clear pattern" emerging gets you responses like "you know that's BS right?")
- The benefits of playing baccarat over other games. Maybe you like baccarat, but not everyone does
- Try to act knowledgeable about the game. I know some ploppies will act like they know it all and actually enjoy arguing why their flawed knowledge is correct, but apparently you don't like arguing about it, so it's better if you just avoid that topic.

OR, just say what you like and don't
worry about it. If others disagree, who
cares. You post for yourself, not for
others.

Quote: EvenBob

OR, just say what you like and don't
worry about it. If others disagree, who
cares. You post for yourself, not for
others.

+1
and you can always block people who are classless

Eliot, I very much respect you and your knowledge of gambling and gambling math. The last thing I want to do is go to battle with you. I will offer this rebuttal and then I will let this go.

Quote: teliot

Quote: RaleighCraps

Why should he have to change the way he posts?

He doesn't have to. As his post above shows, he hasn't.

You may have quoted my post before I edited it to add sc15's post, which is what I was responding to. sc15 gave a few things to NOT Post, to avoid the battles. I was asking why bacc should have to adopt that suggestion and change the content of his posts.

Quote: teliot

Casino math is not a question of "belief" any more than gravity is. Either you "believe" you live in a universe with physical laws or you don't. Regardless, it is the same universe. If you walk into a wall, you will get reminded of that reality, I hope. It's like joining a physics forum and talking about how the earth is the center of the universe.

If B79 wants to make claims and have conversations about his mythical universe, there is a forum on this board for just that sort of thing. The rest is all good.

At one time, all of the scientists believed the world was flat, and they were able to offer up their 'proof' of it, at that time. Yet we know, they were wrong. And I am sure there are plenty of other examples of where science, and math, have had proofs that over time have turned out to be invalid. And we don't even need to enter into the religion aspect. Only a fool would think that our current understanding of the universe is complete, and that our current physical laws are infallible. Peace my brother.

Quote: RaleighCraps

At one time, all of the scientists believed the world was flat, and they were able to offer up their 'proof' of it, at that time. Yet we know, they were wrong. And I am sure there are plenty of other examples of where science, and math, have had proofs that over time have turned out to be invalid. And we don't even need to enter into the religion aspect. Only a fool would think that our current understanding of the universe is complete, and that our current physical laws are infallible. Peace my brother.

No mathematical theorem has ever later turned out to be wrong. Ever.

While theoretical physicists are debating the polarity measurements resulting from the BICEP2 readings and their implications for cosmological inflation and gravitational waves (the readings may have been caused by dust in our own galaxy), no one is debating if 1 + 1 = 2. The physical laws of the universe are not "our laws." I'm not your brother.

The long run, you guys keep bringing it up. I Know the long run. I do wholeheartedly consider myself in the long run. Again I never claimed to beat it. The bottom line in analogy ---- I look at gambling as the old fashioned pinball machine. You put a quarter in and you play it. Sometimes you play it and win and win and win and win and win and win and win and win. Other times you can't win a single darn game. But its fun and when that fun stops---you stop playing it.

I know what I know and it does not matter if I am talking with a mathematician, collage professor or a fire chief or a police sergeant or a state trooper or a DOT engineer.

I don't challenge the stats and the math and the losing in the long run. But, the long run is great for the stats, not for the 8 shoes played for the two nights. I hope you guys understand me and leave it at that. I wouldn't advocate for the next guy to gamble the way I do and I don't want to follow anyone else either. Wait, unless you know what the next hand coming it is and it's not a hunch, it has to be an almost guaranteed winner. Thanks!

Quote: Baccaratfrom79

I pull my monkey out of my pocket and place him up on the table and the whole table is screaming monkey and pointing to my monkey, that is what it is all about, voo-doo or not, call it what you want, that's why I play the game.
Done.

If my memory serves me right, somebody years ago once posted pictures of their Gold Monkey on the casino table. Can't recall when or which board it was, was it you I wonder.

Re Baccarat, you only know what you know!

Quote: Baccaratfrom79

I don't challenge the stats and the math and the losing in the long run. But, the long run is great for the stats, not for the 8 shoes played for the two nights.

There are many things that can be said for 8 shoes. These things can help identify if players know a slug of cards, have first card knowledge, are using a location play, are edge sorting, and so on. In fact, there is software that is built into "smart" shoes that allows players like you to be evaluated in real time during the play of a single shoe. If you knew anything at all that changed the odds, even for one shoe, this software would have a good chance to pick it up. Otherwise, your loss rate is (total wagers) x (house edge) and there is nothing you can do to change that.

The argument that somehow that "the math" is focused on the long run, but you are playing for the short run, is as old as the hills and as wrong as a skunk in a perfume shop.

I think B79 is saying that variance, or luck, comes into play in the short run, but not in the long run.

We've probably all seen players of all types go on one hell of a good run, just raking in the chips: in the short run.

Hey guys, is there a war going on here.
I have not followed Bac79 postings earlier.
The first post I read was when he said he was in the sex business like Bob said. Now it is what.......

I thought I give my 2 cents worth here since baccarat is really the only game played in the casinos here in Asia.
The guy with a system, pattern or game plan in bac. is the darling of the casino.
Huge bets in this game is very common. Talk about up to $1 million in a single hand.
Win or lose a few millions in a session is very common.
I just like to tell Bac79 that Sands make $1/2 B in one casino in 1 quarter this year.

I am a maths guy and playing for the Comps so we are at opposite ends.

Quote: RaleighCraps

Quote: sc15

My advice if you want less "combative" responses is:

Keep your discussion to what a good time you had, what you saw, what you got comped, anything interesting that might've happened at the table, and the results of your trip.

DON'T discuss:
- How you should've seen a pattern coming or whatever, since this will just get you called out for that being BS. (Discussing how 13 bankers came out in a row and how crazy that is will generally be fine, saying in hindsight that you should've bet more because there was a "clear pattern" emerging gets you responses like "you know that's BS right?")
- The benefits of playing baccarat over other games. Maybe you like baccarat, but not everyone does
- Try to act knowledgeable about the game. I know some ploppies will act like they know it all and actually enjoy arguing why their flawed knowledge is correct, but apparently you don't like arguing about it, so it's better if you just avoid that topic.

I disagree with your don'ts.
Why should he have to change the way he posts? Why can't the math guys post the math, and debunk his 'strategy' without turning it into a battle that must be won by making the poster say he is/was wrong?

The problem starts because one party decides they must enforce their will or belief on the other party. I am not placing blame for this on one party. It goes both ways.

Well, the thing is he doesn't seem to like the responses he gets to his posts. The only way he can change the way people respond to his posts is the way he posts.

If he doesn't like constantly being told that his strategy is wrong, the best way to avoid getting those responses is to not post about the strategy.

Quote: MrV

I think B79 is saying that variance, or luck, comes into play in the short run, but not in the long run.

Yes. That is what he is saying. And I am saying that variance is easily measured for one shoe. Like this:

If you flat bet for 80 hands in a shoe, with a mix of Banker bets and Player bets, then your EV is about 1.15% x 80 x Bet_Size. Your standard deviation SD is about 0.94 x sqrt(80) x (Bet_Size). About 68.4% (one standard deviation) of the time your result will end up somewhere between EV - SD and EV + SD for that shoe.

For example, a guy betting $1000 per hand, with 80 hands in the shoe, expects to lose -1.15% x 80 x $1000 = -$920. His standard deviation is about 0.94 x sqrt(80) x ($1000 ) = $8408. EV - SD =-$9328. EV + SD = $7478. What this means is that for one shoe, roughly 68.4% of the time this player's results will be between losing $9328 and winning $7478.

You can look at 2, 3, 4 and so on standard deviations. You can look at z-scores and confidence intervals. This math can also be done for various wager sizes and mixes of bets, including Tie bets. Anything that happens in the span of one shoe is just as predictable as the results from any other length of play.

There is no length of play for which luck matters more than the mathematics of the game. The predictions that statistics make about the range of outcomes applies equally well in all situations.

Math never sleeps.

Got it.

Quote: teliot

The argument that somehow that "the math" is focused on the long run, but you are playing for the short run, is as old as the hills and as wrong as a skunk in a perfume shop.

'The math' is always (always) figured for the
long term. There is no short term math. We
only play in the extreme short term, we wager
on the next bet. There is no math to tell us
what the next outcome will be. Literally
anything can happen in the extreme short
term, and usually does. Look at Ace's last
two trips to AC.

A coin flip has a 50% odds of being heads.
In the long run. No math can tell us what
the next flip will be. So yes, we're always
playing in the long term. But we make bets
in the extreme short term.

Quote: Baccaratfrom79

The long run, you guys keep bringing it up. I Know the long run.

what IS then
the long run (please, no opinions, just facts)
sounds like you B an expert (that is good)

Quote: Baccaratfrom79

I do wholeheartedly consider myself in the long run.

well, more say the long run = forever

this is what the Wizard says too
"This is one of the most frequent questions I get.
You truly arrive at the long run after an infinite number of hands.
However, for practical purposes, you can get very close with a big finite number.
"How big is big?" you might ask.
There is no simple answer."

in my opinion
you aint there
and someone has to be winning after X number of bets
the math says so
even in Bacc

but OK
if you think you are there
and you are winning because of your skill
all about fun

this is always medicine

thanks for sharing!
Mully

Quote: teliot

This math can also be done for various wager sizes and mixes of bets, including Tie bets. Anything that happens in the span of one shoe is just as predictable as the results from any other length of play.

But not for the next hand. All you can
ever say, no matter how much math
you have done, that in the next hand,
which is all that matters, it will be
banker or player or tie. All the math
in the world cannot tell you where
to place the next bet.

So what good is it. Placing the next
bet correctly is all we care about.

This is a good example of why it's annoying to hear people say "let's agree to disagree".

The non-math people don't want to get it.

Quote: MrV

Math never sleeps.

Nor the unlucky guy who put it all on black, and lost, without realizing that luck doesn't matter because the laws of physics aren't our own.

You guys.

Quote: mustangsally

what IS then
the long run (please, no opinions, just facts)

The fact is, the GAME is in the long
run at all times, you as a player have
nothing to do with it. You just sit
in once in awhile. Because the game
is always in the long run, technically
so are you.

Quote: EvenBob

But not for the next hand.

The word next implies a sequence of bets.

Quote: Kerkebet

The word next implies a sequence of bets.

There's a next hand if your just betting
once and leaving.

Quote: teliot

Yes. That is what he is saying. And I am saying that variance is easily measured for one shoe. Like this:

If you flat bet for 80 hands in a shoe, with a mix of Banker bets and Player bets, then your EV is about 1.15% x 80 x Bet_Size. Your standard deviation SD is about 0.94 x sqrt(80) x (Bet_Size). About 68.4% (one standard deviation) of the time your result will end up somewhere between EV - SD and EV + SD for that shoe.

For example, a guy betting $1000 per hand, with 80 hands in the shoe, expects to lose -1.15% x 80 x $1000 = -$920. His standard deviation is about 0.94 x sqrt(80) x ($1000 ) = $8408. EV - SD =-$9328. EV + SD = $7478. What this means is that for one shoe, roughly 68.4% of the time this player's results will be between losing $9328 and winning $7478.

You can look at 2, 3, 4 and so on standard deviations. You can look at z-scores and confidence intervals. This math can also be done for various wager sizes and mixes of bets, including Tie bets. Anything that happens in the span of one shoe is just as predictable as the results from any other length of play.

There is no length of play for which luck matters more than the mathematics of the game. The predictions that statistics make about the range of outcomes applies equally well in all situations.

Do the math guys think that nobody ever is a lifetime winner?

Is it possible for someone to be on the + side of that standard deviation more times than being on the - side?

Quote: Beardgoat

Do the math guys think that nobody ever is a lifetime winner?

I can't recall saying that. You may find value in reading this article I wrote last July where I get very specific about exactly how many "lifetime winners" there will be:

http://apheat.net/2014/07/10/getting-lucky-at-blackjack/

I can't recall in any of my posts saying that you said that. I'm not alleging you said that. I am asking you a question.

It's a serious question. Do you believe there is such a thing as a lifetime winner?

Edit: I see you now included a link to one of your articles. I assume answer is inside there. I will read it. Thanks

Quote: Beardgoat

Do you believe there is such a thing as a lifetime winner?

Ironically, it's the one of the worst bets which make lifetime winners. (lotto)

Few lotto winners bet more than they won.

Quote:

It's a serious question. Do you believe there is such a thing as a lifetime winner?

Ask the man who knows

Quote: EvenBob

There's a next hand if your just betting
once and leaving.

I meant your next hand, ultimately over time in the sense that the less chance of drawing out on the math, the greater would be the perceived luck if you made it.

Quote: MrV

Ask the man who knows

It really depends what he means by gambler. I would venture to say that in games where you are not just playing against the house but against other players, like in poker, it is possible to win in the long run and I think there are countless Poker professionals in Las Vegas to attest to that. Now, if you are going to make your career playing in a game where you are merely playing against the house like Blackjack, craps or roulette, I would tend to believe him

Quote: MrV

Ask the man who knows.

You guys need to get out more.

Life is replete with necessary, though often one-time, risks. Most of which we go on merrily unaware of.

Even in the stock market.

Quote: teliot

http://apheat.net/2014/07/10/getting-lucky-at-blackjack/

I knew a guy years ago who claimed
to be a consistent winner at BJ for
25 years, and he wasn't a counter.
Then it just stopped. He was losing
like everybody else, so he quit when
he was ahead and never went back.

My question is not merely somebody just being ahead lifetime. I know that is how I posed it but that is not what I meant. Yes I know my fault. Its obvious anyone could walk up and bet $10k, win, and then never play again.

Basically the article answers what I wanted to know. 1 in 335 people could play 100,000 hands of blackjack and be ahead lifetime. If you played 45 hands an hour, that's over 2200 hours of play. If I went to Las Vegas once a year and gambled for 8 hours a day for 5 days, and did this every year for 50 years 1 in 335 people would be ahead. I'd consider that the long run. That's the math that I wanted to know so I can could comprehend how likely a "lifetime winner"is

Quote: Beardgoat

Basically the article answers what I wanted to know. 1 in 335 people could play 100,000 hands of blackjack and be ahead lifetime. If you played 45 hands an hour, that's over 2200 hours of play. If I went to Las Vegas once a year and gambled for 8 hours a day for 5 days, and did this every year for 50 years 1 in 335 people would be ahead. I'd consider that the long run. That's the math that I wanted to know so I can could comprehend how likely a "lifetime winner"is

Well, what will you win? A sad life either way.

Not the potential of a good physicist with a good guess of the 1 in 335 ways to go with say the notion of cosmic inflation.

Quote: teliot

I can't recall saying that. You may find value in reading this article I wrote last July where I get very specific about exactly how many "lifetime winners" there will be:

http://apheat.net/2014/07/10/getting-lucky-at-blackjack/

I have problems with this article.

First the casinos assume the HE for BJ is about 2.5% for Comps purposes. I myself think it is actually much higher than this when you see so many horrible horrible plays.

Second the casino never kicks out a player who wins big. On the contrary the casino want him to come back so they can get their back and much more from him